vineri, 27 aprilie 2012

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Real African Men Vs. Hollywood Stereotypes

Posted: 26 Apr 2012 07:38 PM PDT



In this video brought to you by Mama Hope and directed by Joe Sabia, four Kenyan men - Benard, Brian, Derrick, Gabriel - are letting you know that the typical African man is nothing like the ones portrayed on movies and TV.

They said, "If people believed only what they saw in movies, they would think we are all warlords who love violence." They, like Mama Hope, are tired of the over-sensationalized, one-dimensional depictions of African men and the white savior messaging that permeates our media. They wanted to tell their own stories instead, so we handed them the mic and they made this video.


Via: blameitonthevoices


Capybaras that look like Rafael Nadal

Posted: 26 Apr 2012 02:48 PM PDT

It has been said more than once: There's a website for everything. Even for Capybaras that look like Rafael Nadal. The capybara is the largest rodent in the world, and Rafael Nadal is a Spanish professional tennis player, ten time grand slam winner and a former World No.1.
























Negative SEO: Myths, Realities, and Precautions - Whiteboard Friday

Negative SEO: Myths, Realities, and Precautions - Whiteboard Friday


Negative SEO: Myths, Realities, and Precautions - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 26 Apr 2012 01:54 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

This week we will be covering a topic not often discussed on Whiteboard Friday. We are going to be talking about negative SEO tactics and how these practices function. Negative SEO is definitely not something we condone here at SEOmoz but education around these techniques can be a helpful, precautionary method that could prevent you from being the subject of malicious intent.

We hope you enjoy the video and don't forget to leave your comments below.



Video Transcription

Howdy, SEOmoz fans. Welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're talking about a very concerning and controversial topic - negative SEO. Now, negative SEO has a number of meanings. I want to walk through them and get to some points. If you've been paying attention to the Twitter-sphere or the SEO blogosphere over the past week, two weeks, there's been a lot of discussion around negative SEO, particularly backlink pointing to bring down sites. I will get to that, but first I want to start with some of the classic ways that negative SEO could potentially hurt you.

The idea behind negative SEO is that rather than doing good, positive things that will promote signals in the search engines that bump up your rankings, there are ways to do bad, terrible, negative things. Now, obviously you could do these on your own sites, but hopefully you're smart enough not to do that. There may be things that other site owners, webmasters, marketers, or black hat SEO's, mostly we're talking about black hat SEO's, spammers, and even people doing very illegal things to bring down your website in the rankings or to even take your website offline.

There are classic types of things, like malware, hacks, and injections. So this is the first one I'm going to talk about. Basically, what we're saying here is that you've got your site, it has some pages on here, and hackers may find security vulnerabilities in your site, in your FTP logins. It may be a WordPress install. Earlier this year I had a hacker essentially come in and inject spam and malware onto my personal blog at RandFishkin.com/blog. The idea is that they all inject spam, links to spam sometimes, sometimes very subtly. They will make changes to your site. One of the classic examples of this is someone going and editing your robots.txt file to block Google bot or to restrict all IPs from a certain range, or those kinds of things. Obviously, that's going to take your site out of the search engines. Or inject viruses or malware that will install itself on computers that visit you.

Unfortunately, I was actually visiting MozCation.com, which Gianluca Fiorell, one of our Pro members from Spain - he's Italian but from Spain - had set up last year to promote MozCation in Barcelona, in Spain. Unfortunately, it looked like some spammers had injected some malware on that site, and it had been on there a little while. I think he's taken care of it now, but these are the types of problems. What you'll see is a download will go into your cache, and sometimes Microsoft Security Essentials will alert you that that's happened, hopefully if you've got it installed. So this is something to watch out for. You want to close those security holes.

The other kinds of things to watch out for is spam reporting. Sometimes a lot of people, unfortunately, in the SEO-sphere still do manipulative kinds of link building. Obviously, most of the people who watch Whiteboard Friday are not in that group, but some of you probably are. Maybe you buy a few directory listings. You go on Fiverr and you buy some cheap links. You find some spam through some forums that potentially works. You're doing sorts of things that are on the grey hat/black hat borderline, in terms of link acquisition, and sometimes you will see that your competitors might spam report you. So this guy's going to go over to Google and maybe he'll leave a threat at the webmaster forums, or he'll send it through a spam report in his Google Webmaster Tools. A lot of this spam reporting, I think they said they get tens of thousands of spam reports each month, I believe it was. Actually, fewer than I'd expect, but a lot of people do report spam to Google. These might be your competitors. These might be other webmasters. They could just be random people on the Internet who are like, "Why isn't this site ranking here?. This looks terrible. I don't like this."

When this happens, Google might take a closer look at your backlinks, and obviously this might bring you down. There are arguments about the ethics inside the search engine industry. Personally, I think that removing low quality crap from the Internet is all of our jobs, and I like to be part of that. I think that it's a good thing to make the Internet a better place, and if you're not making the Internet a better place, I hope that you're not doing web marketing because it makes the rest of our industry look bad.

However, certainly reasonable minds can disagree. Aaron Wall, from SEO Book, who I highly respect, who I grew up with in this industry and think the world of, takes a complete opposite view. He thinks that because I support disclosing spam and manipulation to Google and to search engines that this makes me a bad person. That's too bad. That's frustrating, but I think reasonable people can disagree. Certainly whatever angle you are on, on this, you should at least be aware that this stuff happens and know that it's a potential risk, particularly if you're doing highly manipulative things.

The last one I want to talk about is actually the biggest one and probably the most important and the most salient and relevant to what we've been talking about today. That is pointing nasty links to your website. Now this has been something that a lot of webmasters have been discussing actively over the last couple of weeks in this sphere, essentially kicked off by a forum thread on Traffic Power Forum. I haven't previously spent a lot of time there, but it's a very active forum populated by a wide mix of white hat folks, grey hat folks, some pretty dark black hat folks, which I'll show you in a minute.

Two members there, Jammie and Pixelgrinder, hit two different websites. One is called SEOFastStart.com, that's owned by Dan Thies. Dan, of course, early keyword research guru in the SEO space, big industry mover and shaker. Spoke at a lot of the early search engine strategies conferences. I've met him a number of times, really good guy, solid guy. He complimented Matt Cutts, the Google Webspam Chief, on the search quality team. He complimented him over Twitter on knocking out some spam. Some people on the forum felt that it was, I don't know, in poor taste. Right? Essentially they felt that because he was being complimentary to Google for kicking out webspam, that he should then be the target of this negative SEO. The other site was NegativeSEO.me, which was essentially a website offering services to get someone banned from the search indices, and this a little concerning in and of itself.

Now the thing that's interesting about these sites, and Dan admitted this about SEOFastStart. Not a very big site. Right? Not a lot of great brand or link signals. Potentially some small amounts of not wholly white hat types of activities already happening around these sites. So we're not talking about (a) big brand sites, or (b) sites that have no idea about the SEO world and aren't doing anything manipulative and are clean as the driven snow. These are a little off that track. These were both hit by these guys, at least presumably, according to the forum thread, and lost a lot of their rankings.

When I say hit, what I mean is this type of thing happens. So here's your site.com up here. Right? Essentially, what's going on is you've got some nice white hat, editorially given, earned links, high quality stuff, and that's great. Then there's some kind of this dark cloud of black hattery, spammy, manipulative posts. They talked about a number of things, XRumer blasts, buying links on Fiverr, buying links from some link networks, pointing some links that they had seen get hit on other sites at this site, and essentially trigger this loss of rankings. Now, they didn't get banned from the index, but they fell from, I think Dan Thies' site in particular fell from ranking #1, for his personal name, to number30, 35, somewhere around there, and hits like that similar across both these sites.

The second example was another forum thread started by a user with the user name, Negative SEO, and that was for the domain JustGoodCars.com. Now again, Just Good Cars unfortunately looks like they were doing a little bit of things that might be construed as manipulative, even prior to this attack on them by the Negative SEO guy. Some links that were of questionable sources or how they were acquired, and then a big network of websites that were all pointing back and forth to each other from many different pages on these many different sites. This guy took it upon himself to say, well they were . . . I guess this website had been complaining in the Google webmaster forums about some other sites outranking them, so this person took it upon themselves to do some pretty nasty, evil stuff.

Now I can't support this in any way. I'm frustrated that unfortunately this is a part of our world. But you should be aware of it, because what they did was creative, almost to the point of ingenuity, but definitely dark and evil, maybe even bordering on illegal depending on the legalities. I'm not really sure. Here's what they said they did. Of course, I can't prove that they actually did these things, but here's what they said they did. So they did go do a lot of manipulative, nasty backlinking to the site from a lot of those sources we talked about. They mentioned a few XRumer blasts. They posted a lot of duplicate content. They set up fake WordPress splogs, essentially a spam blog, and then they re-posted the content that existed on JustGoodCars.com on tens of thousands of pages across the Web so that Google might say, "Oh, well why is this duplicate content?" I don't know that that's actually highly concerning in and of itself. A lot of people copy content from all over the Web for both good and bad reasons.

Then they did something that's really nasty. They went to Fiverr and they asked for people to post fake reviews to Google Reviews to make it look like Just Good Cars was manipulating Google Reviews, and actually got them thrown out of that program. According to the forum post, anyway, that's what happened. They got their stars and their Google Reviews and their ratings removed, and all that kind of stuff, which that's whew, that's really low. That sucks if that's what really happened.

It's even more terrifying, but they sent fake emails. They set up email addresses that looked like they came from Just Good Cars, and sent fake emails to websites that had posted good editorial, positive links, saying, "Hey, you should stop linking to this site. There are these problems with it. We're requesting a DMCA take down action against it. Our attorneys will be in touch if you don't remove your links." Those kinds of things. So really just, oh man, that's really evil. But stuff that we definitely need to be aware of in terms of the world of negative SEO and what this kind of stuff can happen.

Now, it's very tough to verify anonymous users on an anonymous forum posting and whether all of this stuff actually happened, but certainly the ideas behind it are very concerning. What I want to express today is that there are some things you can do on your site that will make you higher risk and lower risk to these kinds of things.

Higher risk is going to be, like some of these other sites, you've already done a little bit of manipulative linking. Right? You've already done some spammy stuff. You have manipulative on-site stuff. Meaning for example, like Just Good Cars there's kind of that footer with all these links pointing to all these other places. This was mentioned in the forum thread. So I'm not giving away new information here, but there's stuff on this site that looks like it might be not wholly kosher, not wholly white hat.

Your site has few high quality brand signals. High quality brand signals, things like lots of people searching for your domain name and brand name. Lots of mentions of you in the news and press, in outlets that are high quality. Lots of offline sorts of signals. Lots of user and usage metrics types of signals. Lots of verification kinds of things. Using high quality providers of everything from the IP address, where your website's hosted, to the domain registration link, to the services you might have installed on your site, Akamai or any of the CDN networks suggest you're very popular. Any type of signal like this that looks like a highly brand intense signal.

Lower risk is going to be the opposite. Right? So things like a totally clean backlink profile. Never done any kind of manipulative linking, at least not intentional outbound backlink building. Don't forget, everyone's going to have some spam links. Even if you've never done any manipulative backlinking or any backlinking or marketing of any kind, you will have some bad backlinks, because the Web, just there are all sorts of weird crawlers and bots that host links all over the place. It's fine. Don't sweat those. It's the normal volume. Things like having a beautiful, elegant, high quality UX. A great UX is a fantastic defense against a lot of spam and manipulation. It's even a great tactic for folks who are trying to do SEO. It's just a great signal in general. Right? Having a great UX is going to get you more conversions and more people using your site. Anyone who is browsing your website, say, from the Google Search Quality team or the webspam team, or the Google reviewers, which Google hires, or from Bing, any of those folks who are looking at your site are going to say, "Oh this is clearly a great site. We want to have this in our index."

If you review some of these other sites, you can take them or leave them. One that does not feel very SEO. I think you all know what I mean. There's sort of that sixth sense of, boy, they're doing a lot of things on the page and off the site that don't feel like they're natural, don't feel like they're for users. Whenever you have that sixth sense around a site, that's going to put you in a higher danger category. Not doing that, having that very natural sort of site, you can target keywords, do a good job with your titles, do a good job with your content, do a good job with your internal linking, but make it feel very natural. I'll give you good examples. Amazon, very well SEO'ed, but doesn't feel SEO'ed. Zappos, doesn't feel SEO'ed. Even SEOmoz, it doesn't feel very SEO'ed, but it's doing a good job. TechCrunch, doesn't feel SEO'ed, but ranks phenomenally well.

Finally, having those strong brand signals, the branded searches, lots of people searching for your brand name specifically. Good links, good mentions, good press, good user and usage metrics, all these types of things are going to protect you from a lot of these types of spam attacks.

That being said, there's nasty stuff that other people can do. So you want to (a) keep your eyes wide open. Make sure you're registered with Google Webmaster Tools so you can get any of these warnings ahead of time. If you happen to see an influx of really nasty looking links, you might want to send a preemptive reconsideration request to Google saying, "Hey, we don't know where these came from and we have nothing to do with this. We just want you guys to know that this is not our activity. Please feel free to disregard or not count these links." 99% of the time Google is not going to say, "Oh these bad links that are pointing to you, we're going to count those as reducing your SEO and bringing you down in the rankings." They're instead going to say, "Oh well, we're going to ignore these. We're going to remove the value that these pass." They're not going to pass PageRank or anchor text value or link trust, or whatever it is. We're just going to count the good stuff.

I remember being in a session, this was years ago, probably five or six years ago, with Matt Cutts, the head of webspam for Google. He was looking at a site on his computer, and the person asked about their website from the audience, and he said, I see, I don't remember what it was, 14,000 odd links pointing to this site, but Google's actually only counting about 30 of them. That's why you're not ranking very well. Most of those links we've removed all the value that they pass. So it's not that they were having those bad links hurt the site. It's just that they're saying, "Oh these are not going to pass any more link value."

Now, what I would suggest here is, if you see stuff that looks like manipulative and negative SEO, you just be careful. We are trying to do some things here at SEOmoz to help with this. One of the things our data scientist, Dr. Matt Peters, is working with some folks here at Moz to build a large list of spam so we can do some classification, and eventually inside the Mozcape index, which will appear in Open Site Explorer, show up in your Pro-web app, show up in the Mozbar, we'll try and classify sites to say, "Hey we're pretty sure this is spam. This looks like the kind of thing where we've pattern matched and seen Google penalize or ban a lot of these sites." We're also trying to build some metrics to show what are really good, high quality, and editorially given sites. So domain authority and page authority already exist to try and do that.

Then, we're also running some experiments where I've offered up my personal blog, which is a relatively small site, probably has as few links as any of these, probably fewer than Just Good Cars, RandFishkin.com, to see if some of these nasty folks, who are hitting and taking down sites with negative SEO, would like to concentrate their focus on my sites. For two reasons, number one, we'd be very curious to see it happen, and number two, we can certainly afford the hit. We offered up SEOmoz as well. Most people seem to think that SEOmoz is not a good target. It won't actually be taken down.

We're going to run some experiments internally as well on this front and hopefully be able to disprove that negative SEO is a common thing that works very well. I'd hate to see an industry spring up like this. I think that this type of activity, particularly some of these really nasty things, are just an awful part of being around the black hat spam-sphere. I hope that it's something that we can defend against. I hope you'll join me in contributing. I look forward to your comments. If you've seen stuff like this before, please do feel free to talk about it either anonymously or openly in the comments. I will see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

p.s. from Rand: I incorrectly noted the keyword for which Dan Thies' site lost rankings in the video as being his name. It was actually "SEO Book." My apologies!


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West Wing Week: "Don't Double My Rate"

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, April 27, 2012
 

West Wing Week: "Don't Double My Rate"

This week, the President hosted the Wounded Warrior Project's Soldier Ride, visited the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, DC, and traveled to North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa to launch a sustained effort to get Congress to prevent interest rates on student loans from doubling on July 1st.

Watch this edition of West Wing Week:

Watch "Don't Double My Rate"

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Advance Estimate of GDP for the First Quarter of 2012
The economy posted its 11th straight quarter of positive growth, as real GDP grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year. Several private sector components of GDP grew solidly in the first quarter, including personal consumption expenditures, auto production and residential construction.

White House Marks Take Our Sons and Daughters to Work Day
Children of White House staff took an Oath of Office and met with First Lady Michelle Obama as part of the day's events.

Supporting Community Living
The Affordable Care Act helps all Americans, including people with disabilities and seniors, live at home with the supports they need, rather than in nursing homes or other institutions, and participate in communities that value their contributions.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).
                      
9:00 AM: The Vice President attends a campaign event

9:05 AM: The President and the First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

9:20 AM: The President and the First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews en route Fort Stewart, Hinesville, Georgia
                       
10:55 AM: The President and the First Lady arrive in Hinesville, Georgia
Hunter Army Airfield

12:35 PM: The President delivers remarks to troops, veterans and military families; the First Lady delivers introductory remarks WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:05 PM: The President departs Georgia en route Washington, DC

3:30 PM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews

3:45 PM: The President arrives at the White House

4:55 PM: The President attends a campaign event

6:10 PM: The President attends a campaign event

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : The story of money is not a straight line

The story of money is not a straight line

Paradoxcurve

Everyone tells themself a different story about money, but there's no doubt at all that the story we tell ourselves changes our behavior.

Consider this curve of how people react in situations that cost money.

A musician is standing on a street corner playing real good for free. Most people walk on by (3). That same musician playing at a bar with a $5 cover gets a bit more attention. Put him into a concert hall at $40 and suddenly it's an event.

Pay someone minimum wage or a low intern stipend (4) and they treat the work like a job. Don't expect that worker to put in extra effort or conquer her fear--the message is that her effort was bought and paid for and wasn't worth very much to the boss... and so she reciprocates in kind. The same sort of thing can happen in a class that's easy to get into and that doesn't cost much--a Learning Annex sort of thing. Easy to start, cheap to try--not much effort as a result.

It's interesting to me to see what happens to people who pay a lot or get paid well (2,5). The kids at Harvard Law School, for example, or a third-year associate at a law firm. Here, we see all nighters, heroic, career-risking efforts and all sorts of personal investment. And yet as we extend the curve to situations where the rules of rational money are suspended, something happens--people get fearful again. Don't look to Oprah or JK Rowling or the Donald to bet it all--the huge amount of money they could earn (or could pay) to play at the next level (1 & 6) isn't enough to get them out of their comfort zone. Money ceases to be a motivator for everyone at some point.

Most interesting of all is the long black line at zero (3). The curve goes wild here, like dividing by zero. At zero, at the place where no money changes hands, we see volunteer labor and free exchange. In these situations, sometimes we see extraordinary effort, the stuff that wins Nobel prizes. Just about every great, brave or beautiful thing in our culture was created by someone who didn't do it for money. We see the local volunteer putting in insane hours even though no one is watching. We hear the magical song or read the amazing poem that no one got paid to write. And sometimes, though, we see very little, just a trolling comment or a half-hearted bit of commentary. Remove money from the story and we're in a whole new category. The most vivid way to think about this is the difference between a mutually-agreed upon romantic date and one in which money changes hands.

All worth thinking about when you consider how much to charge for a gig, what tuition ought to be, what motivates job creators or whether or not a form of art disappears when the business model for that art goes away.



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joi, 26 aprilie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Spain Long-Term Debt Lowered to BBB+ from A, With Negative Outlook; 100% Certain Conditions in Spain Worsen

Posted: 26 Apr 2012 07:53 PM PDT

Why Spanish debt was Rated "A" for as long as it has been remains a mystery. Indeed BBB+ seems like a gift. Nonetheless, expect howls from Europe as Spain Cut by S&P for 2nd Time This Year on Banks, Economy.
Spain's sovereign credit rating was cut for the second time this year by Standard & Poor's on concern that the country will have to provide further fiscal support to banks as the economy contracts.

S&P lowered the long-term grade to BBB+ from A, with a negative outlook. Spain's short-term rating was reduced to A-2 from A-1, New York-based S&P said in a statement yesterday.

"Spain's budget trajectory will likely deteriorate against a background of economic contraction," S&P wrote in the statement yesterday. "At the same time, we see an increasing likelihood that Spain's government will need to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector. As a consequence, we believe there are heightened risks that Spain's net general govern debt could rise further."

"We could also consider a downgrade if political support for the current reform agenda were to wane," the S&P statement said. "Moreover, we could lower the ratings if we see that Spain's external position worsens or its competitiveness does not continue to approach that of its trading partners, a key factor for Spain to return to sustainable economic and employment growth."
100% Certain Conditions in Spain Worsen

One has to wonder what the S&P is smoking with that last statement. The odds Spain's position worsens is 100% and the odds Spain's competitiveness rises to match productivity in Northern Europe is close to 0%.

The article continues ...
Spanish banks probably need 50 billion euros of additional capital, Morgan Stanley analysts estimate. The figure may rise to as much as 160 billion euros in a worst-case scenario, said Elaine Lin, a strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. The banks could try to raise the capital themselves or get it from either the Spanish government or the European Financial Stability Facility, she said.
How Much?

I propose the worst case scenario is likely to soon become the best case scenario. Spain is imploding and nothing can stop it but free money from Germany (not going to happen voluntarily), or a Spanish exit from the Eurozone. The latter is likely, but may not occur until Spain becomes the next Greece.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Bernanke Calls Krugman "Reckless"; Krugman and Bernanke Both in Academic Wonderland Somewhere Deep in Outer Space

Posted: 26 Apr 2012 10:20 AM PDT

Paul Krugman is now so far into outer space with ridiculous economic proposals that even Helicopter Ben Bernanke recognizes Krugman's proposals as "reckless".

Bloomberg reports Bernanke Takes On Krugman's Criticism Ignoring Own Advice
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke took on Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman yesterday and called his advice to reduce unemployment by boosting inflation "reckless."

"The question is, does it make sense to actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to achieve" a slightly faster reduction in the unemployment rate, Bernanke said yesterday to reporters after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "The view of the committee is that that would be very reckless."

Krugman, whom Bernanke hired at Princeton University in 2000 when he was chairman of the economics department, said in a New York Times Magazine article that the Fed should raise its 2 percent inflation target to cut unemployment. Such a policy shift would align with Bernanke's comment in 2000 that the Bank of Japan (8301) should pursue faster inflation to escape deflation, he said. Japan's consumer prices fell 0.2 percent that year.

"While the Fed went to great lengths to rescue the financial system, it has done far less to rescue workers," Krugman wrote. "Higher expected inflation would aid an economy" because it would persuade investors and businesses "that sitting on cash is a bad idea," Krugman said.

The chairman spoke in response to a reporter's question referring to Krugman's story, titled "Earth to Ben Bernanke," published April 24. The article cited "the divergence between what Professor Bernanke advocated and what Chairman Bernanke has actually done."

Bernanke said pushing the increase in prices above the Fed's 2 percent goal would risk undermining inflation expectations and erode the central bank's credibility as a force for stable prices."

"We, the Federal Reserve, have spent 30 years building up credibility for low and stable inflation, which has proved extremely valuable in that we've been able to take strong accommodative actions in the last four, five years," Bernanke told reporters. "To risk that asset for what I think would be quite tentative and perhaps doubtful gains on the real side would be, I think, an unwise thing to do."
Krugman and Bernanke Both in Outer Space

The irony in this bickering is that both Krugman and Bernanke are economic failures. The idea that more inflation will help those mired in debt is preposterous. Japan attempted to halt deflation for 20 years and has nothing to show for it but a mountain of debt.

On the other hand, Bernanke brags about "30 years building up credibility" that the Fed simply does not have. The US has seen bubble after bubble, each with increasing amplitude and troughs, so Bernanke has to be on some sort of mind-altering drugs to talk of either credibility or price stability.

Perhaps his mind was altered by gamma rays from being in "deep academic space" for so long.

Price-wise, Bernanke is correct the US is in a state of inflation, and Japan not. I expect Krugman to counter with housing.

If one takes housing into consideration, inflation is well under the Fed's target as I pointed out in How Far Have Home Prices "Really" Fallen? HPI Upcoming Changes; HPI and the CPI
CPI Adjusted for Home Price Index (HPI)



The Fed kept interest rates at historic lows between 2002 and mid-2004. The last two rate cuts by Alan Greenspan were not justified at all, by any measure, and downright absurd considering the bubble brewing in housing prices vs. rent.
Allegedly the Fed held interest rates low to prevent "deflation". Instead it exacerbated "price deflation".

Clearly the Fed had no idea what it was doing, and still doesn't, (unless of course you believe this is a Fed conspiracy to deliberately screw the middle class). The result is bubbles and crashes of ever-increasing amplitude as the Fed chases its own tail. New bubbles have formed in the stock market and commodities right now.
Outer Space Policies

 Bernanke is trying like a madman to get banks to increase lending but Bernanke and Krugman both do not understand economic reality.

  1. Banks cannot lend because they are still capital impaired, hiding losses yet to come, and holding assets that are marked-to-fantasy instead of marked-to-market
  2. Consumers are busted and holding interest rates at 0% when prices of food and gasoline are soaring exacerbates the problem
  3. There are few credit-worthy businesses that want to borrow in this environment 
  4. The businesses that do want to borrow are not credit-worthy and banks would be foolish to lend to them
  5. Boomers are headed into retirement with too much debt, too little income, too few assets and they need to save not spend. 
  6. Real wages (discounting the decline in housing), are hugely negative, and forcing more inflation would be downright idiotic
  7. The Fed can inject liquidity but it cannot determine where it goes. 
  8. The Fed desperately wants home prices to rise and businesses to borrow, but instead food and energy prices have risen, and there is little hiring. Krugman wants Bernanke to do more of the same even though the same has already proven to be the problem.

Academic Wonderland, Somewhere Beyond Pluto

Quite frankly all eight points above are common sense ideas. However, neither Bernanke nor Krugman have real world experience. Both come from academic wonderland, well beyond the orbit of Pluto.

Clearly neither Krugman nor Bernanke have any solid grasp of the concept of debt-deflation. Neither understands boomer demographics. Neither understands why businesses are not hiring. Neither understands that debt eventually has to be dealt with, and it is the debt itself is the problem. Neither understands that inflation will destroy those without a job. Neither understands (but especially Krugman) that increased inflation will not guarantee more jobs.

Finally, I would like to point out that Krugman is totally clueless about the damage that public unions cause. We could get far more roads and bridges repaired, employing far more people for the same price,  while alleviating budget constraints at the same time if only we could get rid of Davis-Bacon and prevailing wage laws and end collective bargaining of public unions.

That my friends is the sad state of affairs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Swiss Politician Says "Too Many Germans in Switzerland", Seeks Stronger Immigration Controls; Word of the Day: "Backlash"

Posted: 26 Apr 2012 12:35 AM PDT

The European recession is starting to take its toll. Voters everywhere are fed up with austerity, fed up with high unemployment, fed up with immigration, and fed up with politicians currently in power.

On May 6, voter backlash will cost French President Nicolas Sarkozy his job.

Hollande Sustains Lead Over Sarkozy In Presidential Race-Poll
Francois Hollande, the socialist candidate in French elections, is maintaining his lead over incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy with 12 days to go to the runoff for the French presidency, a poll showed Tuesday.

Hollande will take 54% of the vote in the second round and Sarkozy 46%, according to the poll of 1,145 people on the electoral register conducted by Opinionway Monday and Tuesday. The result of the Opinionway poll was unchanged from the previous comparable poll Sunday, when the French chose between 10 candidates in the first round.

The Opinionway poll shows 47% of Le Pen voters would switch to Sarkozy and 27% would go for Hollande in the runoff, with 26% abstaining from voting.

The poll also shows 41% of those who voted for centrist candidate Francois Bayrou--who took 9.13% of the vote in the first round--plan to vote for Sarkozy and 36% for Hollande.

However, Hollande benefits from a clear transfer of votes from far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who took 11.1% of the first-round vote and has called for his supporters to vote for Hollande. Hollande would take 91% of Melenchon's voters and Sarkozy only 2%, according to the Opinionway poll.
Voters are so disgusted with Sarkozy that less than half of of those voting voting for extreme-right candidate Marine Le Pen plan on voting for center-right president Sarkozy. 53% will abstain or vote for the Socialist Hollande.

Backlash Against Eurozone Austerity

The Financial Times discusses Backlash Against Eurozone Austerity
A political backlash against fiscal austerity left mainstream French and Dutch politicians struggling on Monday to shore up support as a key economic indicator highlighted the eurozone's slide into deeper recession.

In the Netherlands, one of the eurozone's most fiscally disciplinarian governments collapsed as Mark Rutte, prime minister, tendered his government's resignation at a meeting with Queen Beatrix, clearing the way for elections. In France, the Socialist Mr Hollande's first-round victory was accompanied by a surge in support for the far-right National Front.
Backlash Against Germans

Der Speigel Online reports Politician Sparks Uproar with Call to Limit German Workers
A Swiss politician has prompted a heated debate after suggesting that there are too many German immigrants in her country. "We really have too many Germans in the country," Natalie Rickli, a member of Switzerland's parliament with the right-wing populist Swiss People's Party (SVP), said during a television talk show on Sunday.

The actual topic of discussion on the talk show, broadcast on Zürich local television station TeleZüri, was supposed to be Switzerland's decision last week to curb immigration from eight central and eastern European countries. Last Wednesday, the Swiss cabinet, the Federal Council, announced it had decided to invoke the so-called "safeguard clause" in its agreement with the European Union on the free movement of persons. The move will significantly reduce the number of jobseekers from these countries allowed to enter Switzerland for a one-year period.

But that initiative apparently does not go far enough for Rickli. On the talk show, she argued that the safeguard clause should also apply to Germans. Many people shared her view that there were "too many Germans" in Switzerland, she said.

The other guests on the show reacted with shock, but Rickli kept going. "The parliament should have already activated the safeguard clause in 2009, when it would have also affected the Germans," she said, adding that Switzerland had a problem with the sheer scale of immigration. She said that she had already received a lot of mail from Swiss people saying that they had lost their jobs because cheaper Germans had been hired instead.

Rickli's comments reflect her SVP party's anti-EU and anti-immigration policies.

The verbal attack comes at a time of mutual tensions between Germany and Switzerland over a controversial bilateral tax treaty which is aimed at cracking down on wealthy Germans who commit tax evasion by stashing their money in Swiss banks.
Bear in mind the Swiss People's Party (SVP) is not a small fringe party. It is the leading political party in Switzerland for 32 years with about 25% of the vote in the last election.

So, not only is there a call to limit immigration from eastern European countries, the leading party in Switzerland is fed up with Germans willing to work in Switzerland for cheaper prices than the Swiss.

Wasn't one of the reasons behind the creation of the Eurozone to allow freedom of movement as a way to encourage growth?

Indeed it was. Switzerland is not the Eurozone, but this really takes the cake.

Breakin' Up is Hard to Do

Note the increasing trade disputes between France and Spain, Between Southern Europe and Eastern Europe, between Northern Europe and Eastern Europe, between Northern Europe and Southern Europe, and now between Switzerland and Germany.

Also note that France and Southern Europe want Eurobonds. Northern Europe does not. Somehow there is supposed to be a fiscal union complete with numerous trade barriers and immigration controls on top eurobond disputes and nannyzone bickering that will not be resolved soon.

Indeed, the only way eurobonds are likely to happen at all is if Germany, Finland, the Netherlands, and Austria get fed up enough with France and the Club Med countries and exit the treaty.

An extremely painful breakup is coming, but the sooner it happens, the better off Europe will be.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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