miercuri, 9 mai 2012

The Noob Guide to Link Building

The Noob Guide to Link Building


The Noob Guide to Link Building

Posted: 08 May 2012 02:38 PM PDT

Posted by iPullRank

NOOB GUIDE TO LINK BUILDING

The Noob Guide to Online Marketing is arguably the greatest single post of all time. If you don’t agree, well, it’s at least my favorite. Oli Gardner (of Unbounce) displayed a playful writing style mixed with pixel perfect graphic design, and a GPS of a roadmap to take your site from mile marker zero to one hundred in six months. It’s nothing short of amazing.

While savvy content marketers realize that many of Oli’s tactics will naturally attract links, fledgling link builders got to the 63rd page and were still wondering what to do. With this companion piece, it is my goal to grab the baton from Oli and outline a six-month link building action plan for your brand or client’s new web property. Even if the website isn’t brand spanking new, that’s fine, what I really mean is that this is the link building plan for the less savvy looking to do dive into off page optimization. Marketers with long existing sites and more link building experience will be better served downloading the Complete Six-month Off Page SEO Gameplan from iAcquire.

Following this guide in concert with Oli’s you will identify your audience, build a list of prospects, plan and execute four successful pieces of content and convince influencers to create content for your site.

Download both Link Building Guides

Since we last spoke I left Publicis Modem to become the Director of Inbound Marketing at iAcquire which is a technology-focused off page seo agency. I encourage you to read the “Quantifying Outreach” study that I released at LinkLove London wherein I examined nearly 300k outreach emails from both our own iRank platform and Buzzstream’s CRM software. The study will help you optimize your outreach emailing tactics and understand why treating people like people rather than prospects is a far more effective tactic than sending form letters.

For those keeping score at home this falls under both the Content Strategy/Development and Social Strategy phases of the New SEO Process.

Link Building Philosophy

For many, link building is a numbers game and it quickly becomes clear why those people would rather put their resources into black hat tactics. Those marketers are too impatient to properly build links because link building is a process wherein you are convincing people who don’t know you to take a real world action that benefits you. To do that at scale requires a budget, great understanding of people, a large outreach team and a commitment to creating content that people will actually be compelled to link to or embed into their sites. In other words, you either have to make friends or make news.

In this age of 2pac Holograms, stop motion action figure videos, and augmented reality utilities how do you compete? While that type of content is awesome, it represents the type of big swings that may not be in your wheelhouse or relevant to your brand/client so often people wonder how to build links in their otherwise boring niche.

Naturally, there are ways to manually submit your site to millions of forums, blog comments, and directories, but those links are generally very low quality and have been the focus of algorithm updates such as Penguin. That is not to say that these tactics don’t work, but just as you should diversify your traffic sources beyond just Search, you will want to diversify your link building tactics to build a varied and natural link portfolio.

Sites with unnatural link profiles create a footprint that is easy to identify from a 10,000 foot view and of course Google has that perspective. Don’t put yourself on their radar by engaging in spammy tactics.

Anchor Text Distribution

This metric, which is the number of times an anchor in your backlink profile occurs, is best measured using tools like Open Site Explorer, MajesticSEO, Ahrefs, etc., is very important. An ex-Googler told me at SMX Australia to always be sure the highest occurring anchor text for a site is branded otherwise you may trigger an algorithmic filter or penalty.

Watch out for black hats!

Link Equity

The value of the links you build to your site is not a trivial thing. Links are the lifeblood of Search campaigns and therefore the foundation on which every site that is visible in the Search Engine Results Pages (SERPs) must be built.

Link Building Pro Tip: Share of Voice

These numbers will not be an exact determination of what you will need to accomplish as there is a sliding scale of worth for links, but this crude explanation will make it clear to higher ups what needs to be done and why.

  1. Use the aforementioned backlink profiling tools to determine how many links your competitors have and how many links you have. Whether you only use one tool or all tools, make sure that you stay consistent. Backlink profile tools all measure a different portion of the web and none of them are as comprehensive as Google so it’s important to use the same source(s) to capture a snapshot for every site.
     
  2. Calculate Share of Voice.Share of Voice Equation
    Share of voice is a traditional advertising term that basically means of the percentage of opportunity that a given brand occupies. If there are 10 TV advertising slots for a given TV show and a company ran ads that filled five of those slots for that show, they have a 50% Share of Voice.

    Ham Sandwich SERP

    For the keyword [ham sandwich] the site HamSandwichMusic.Com has the highest SoV because it’s in the #1 position. The keyword [ham sandwich] has a local search volume of 33,100 which means the largest amount of traffic you can get from that keyword (according to industry standards) is 18.2% which is 6024.2 visits. So if my traffic for that keyword monthly is only 500 visits, I have an 8.3% SoV for [ham sandwich].
     
  3. Determine the number of links required for you to beat your competitors. That is to say if the first position has 100 links and you have five, make the case that it will take you 96 links to get the share of voice that your top competitor has. Again, this is not exactly indicative of what it will take to beat your competitor because you may surpass them with less links that are higher quality or it may require more links and competitors will continue to build links, but to build an easily understood case use share of voice.

Justifying Share of Voice

Tools

The specific tools required for each month are called out in this guide however there are tools that may be used at any point for a variety of reasons. Every tool mentioned in this guide is free or at least has a free tier and/or a free trial that will allow you at least start working.

  • Rapportive – This Gmail Plugin is for identifying what users social profiles are connected to their email address. This is key because reaching out to people via social media first is far more effective than emailing them first.
  • Boomerang – This Gmail plugin allows you to schedule and automatically follow up on emails.
  • Microsoft Excel – This spreadsheet application is in invaluable for collecting, slicing and dicing data. Get to know it well with Distilled’s Excel Guide to SEO.
  • SEOmoz Toolbar – The SEOmoz toolbar is a must-have for a variety of reasons, but in the case of building links you can find out whether a site meets your SEO metric requirements as you go.
  • Scraper for Chrome – Stop copy and pasting data one piece at a time, use this plugin to quickly scrape data off a page and port it right to Google Docs.
  • Google Refine – The data you collect will often be wonky or at least not in the format that you want it to be in and for some things Excel just doesn’t cut it. This tool by Google helps you clean it up.
  • SpyOnWeb – Using this tool you can quickly figure out what domain names or IPs share the same space and what sites have the same AdSense ID. In other words you can use SpyOnWeb to identify whether your prospect is a part of a link farm.
  • Link Detective – This link classification tool quickly lets you determine what types of links you or your competitor has. Take a CSV from Open Site Explorer and throw it into the system and find out the makeup of a link profile.
  • Link Indices – A link index gives you the links that are linking to a given page or site. This is invaluable intel for tracking progress and identifying opportunities and deficiencies. Each of the following link indices has its own strengths and weaknesses, so give them all a try and determine which one fits your needs the best just like Branko Rihtman did:
  • Open Site Explorer
  • MajesticSEO
  • Ahrefs

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MONTH ONE – PLANNING AND QUICK HITS

This month in the Noob Guide to Online Marketing Guide you are setting up your online presence and the tools to measure it. Simultaneously, you should be planning out your link building campaign.

PLANNING

Oli’s guide talks about launching an editorial calendar at Month Two, but I suggest you start thinking about when you’re rolling your content out before you start anything. You should of course be thinking about what’s hitting the blog when, but content takes time and careful planning to create and then launch.

When planning your link building you should do what it takes to differentiate yourself and your content because you are competing with the whole web. Making your content stand out will make building links substantially easier.

With that in mind you will be launching the following content:

  • Egobait (Month Two) – This is content that includes and flatters your key influencers to in turn encourage them to participate by linking to or sharing your digital assets.
  • Data Visualization (Month Three) – Everyone’s go-to version of this is an infographic, but consider other ways of visualizing the data such as a book (Storybird), a timeline (dipity) or a videographic if possible. In month three you will be launching your own.

    Google Don't Be Evil Video
     
  • E-Book and Guest Post (Month Four) – By the time the fourth month rolls around, the key influencers in your space should know about you or your client and what you bring to the table. At this point an e-book is great way to solidify you or your client’s thought leadership. Much like this guide and Oli’s, you will be coupling that e-book with a blog post on an influential site in your space to be sure that it is seen.

    The content should have a centralized theme that links back to your business goals, but you want it to be different enough so that your growing audience will want to share all of it.
     
  • Audience/Influencer Personas – Understand who your target audience is by creating personas. Personas are general representations of your audience. Typically you should create four personas for the whole site campaign and while you can make as you like, four are more easily managed.

    These personas don’t have to be particularly in-depth (for example we don’t need to determine their need states) nor validated through measurement, they just have to help you create a mental model for content ideation, prospecting and outreach. While a more in-depth form of this falls under the Opportunity Discovery model, for the purposes of link building a basic understanding of who is potentially out there is all that is required. This will make it easier to associate concepts and keywords with one segment of the audience rather than another and then ultimately allow you to tailor outreach specifically to that segment in order to scale the messages.
    • Social Listening – Use tools like Topsy, Social Mention, Amplicate and Google Discussion Search to identify user segments based on keyword searches and usage. Starting from basic keyword searches that you have identified in the Adwords Keyword Tool identify who is contributing to that conversation. In cases where the conversation is particularly spammy, download the tweets and clean them up using Google Refine.
       
    • Facebook Ad Creator – The Facebook Ad Creator is to audience research what the Google Adwords Keyword Tool is to Keyword Research. It is an invaluable tool to understand the inventory of people that fit a very precise demographic. This tool will be the validation required for the personas you are building. If you hypothesize from social listening that there is a user segment out there between 30 and 40 and is interested in search engine optimization, you can then take that to the Facebook Ad Creator and see how valid that is. The only limitation is that you can’t examine the interests together using “AND.” You can only use examine the inventory using “OR.”

Facebook Ad Creator
 

  • Prospecting – Finding people who will be interested in your content has never been easier. Now that you have identified the type of people that you want links from and split them into targets and influencers you have a fairly precise idea of what they are into. Break these into defining keywords and run searches in:
    • FollowerWonk
    • Zerply
    • About.Me

You can also prospect specifically for sites within Google by using a variety of search queries. Additionally, there are prospecting tools such as Citation Labs and Ontolo, but these require paid subscriptions.

Keep track of these users by persona type so you can later segment your outreach and create more directly tailored form letters — if that is your thing. If you’re prospecting specifically by site you can also keep track of those sites by the segment that those sites target.

  • Original Content Ideation – Even with an incredible Creative team amazing content is not scalable. Even Don Draper’s team had far more misses than makes, but what Sterling Cooper didn’t have is Social Media.
    • GoFish – This is a tool that I built to perform real-time keyword research in order to help identify co-relevant ideas that are already occurring on Twitter and gives you a list of users that have tweeted those keywords. I gave an example in my “Targeting Humans” talk where I put in the keyword “Michael Jackson” and it identified the keywords “Jackson trial” and “south park” as occurring together very often. A content idea with a built-in audience would be “The Michael Jackson Doctor Trial” played out with South Park characters. More information on how this tool works can be found in my “Using Social Media to Get Ahead of Search Demand” post.
       
    • Facebook Ad Creator – You might be surprised to see this tool twice. In addition to being great for segment inventory it’s also great for inferring content ideas that will resonate with those people. For example if we found that target segment of XXX is interested in [A].[B],[C] can we can infer that they would be interested in a __________________. This is the same idea as with GoFish, but it allows for more evergreen concepts.
       
  • Pre-Contacting – At this point you have your ideas and a strong list of prospects. Strike up a conversation and tell them about the content you’re working on. Ask them for feedback due to their expertise or interest in the subject matter. Update them regularly along the way to make sure they are still onboard so when the content launches you will have a warm rapport with these people. Keep track of who was interested in your spreadsheet.

QUICK HITS

The following quick hits can be done at any point in any month. Many of them are one-offs, others will benefit from continued engagement. They are placed here so that you can get wins and show movement to the powers that be in order to get continued buy-in for your link building campaigns.

Get Indexed Fast with Google+

  • Ask for Links in Mailing List Signups – Encourage users to link to your website when sending out the confirmation email for your mailing asking them or including embed code.
     
  • Profile Links – Many Web 2.0 profiles allow you to implement a “DoFollow” link or links that pass link equity. When claiming your brand on social networks be sure to include links from your profile.
    • Facebook Fan Page
    • Twitter
    • YouTube
    • Google+ Profile
       
  • Directory Submission – Directory submissions are generally considered the lowest form of link building and generally won’t help you move the needle. That said you can easily identify directories with keyword searches plus directory type e.g. “3d tv rss directory.” Again, you can show numbers with these, but they are generally not worth your time.
    • RSS Directories
    • Niche Directories
    • Paid Directories
    • Article Directories
    • Blog Directories
    • Design Galleries
       
  • Better Business Bureau – The BBB has a site with an incredibly high domain authority, it’s a widely trusted site in both the eyes of the search engines and the consumer. Getting linked from this site is fairly easy and very valuable.
     
  • Chamber of Commerce – Similar to the BBB, the local chamber of commerce provides the same type of value and ease for obtaining links.
     
  • Join the Conversation – Typically this is called “link dropping,” but that is only in cases where people place links without joining in the conversation contextually. If you are adding to the conversation (as seen on SEOmoz posts) this is a viable tactic for link building.
    • Message Boards/Blogs – Find these with keyword searches in Google’s discussion search and Social Mention.
    • Quora
    • LinkedIn
    • Yahoo Answers

MONTH TWO – EGOBAIT

This month in the Noob Guide to Online Marketing Guide you are building your social media followings and soon you will be expected to seed users. That’s much easier said than done, but one of the best ways to do that is by getting your influencers to put your content in front of their users. The best way to accomplish this is by launching egobait which is content made to flatter, include or get the attention of specific users while also providing utility to your audience,

  • Crowd Sourced Posts – Reach out to influencers and ask them what they think about current events. This makes them feel important and allows them to voice their opinion on topics without having to write a full post themselves and truthfully allows you to create content with little effort.
     
  • Best of Lists – Curate a list of the greatest content, writers, things in your space and give props to your target influencers. Another way to quickly make content that will make the rounds and their audience will start to engage with you.
     
  • Interviews – Have a Q&A session with a popular thought leader over the phone using Google Voice and you will quickly have a transcript of your interview and your influencer will have piece of content they are proud to share and link to.
     
  • Description: PF Comic #3 - Mo' Money featuring J. Money from Budgets are SexyAwards/Badges – Gillian Muessig said it best “no one gave us the authority to launch the Web 2.0 awards, but we did and people still try to enter them to this day.” Launch your own awards in your space and send the people you want to link to you badges that they can use to link back to you. You can take this even further by launching an unbranded microsite and then tricking you competitors into linking to you.
  • X-Factor – There’s an infinite amount of ways to flatter people. Without picking up a copy of the Art of Seduction I’m sure you can creatively figure out how to get influencers to come out to play. Here’s an example from a Credit Card Finder site in Australia where they created a comic book series starring the top financial bloggers in their space.

    This is a great opportunity to revitalize a dormant content idea that never quite took off. Do you have creative content that fell to the wayside because the characters never took a life of their own? Take your influencers and breathe new life into an old idea by making them the stars.

 

Month 3: Data Visualization

MONTH THREE – LAUNCHING DATA VISUALIZATION

What Happens Online When You Die?

The infographic is largely misunderstood as a piece of automatically viral content. The reality is that the infographic has been done to death so unless you have an active built-in community yours requires a substantial launch plan and push. The Noob Guide to Online Marketing Guide places the launch of an infographic at Month Six, but to get the most mileage out of it as a noob, I’m placing data visualization at Month Three. Feel free to launch an additional infographic at Month Six.

In 2012, data visualization should be presented as a Maximum Viable Product. A great example of such is an Australian site in the life insurance space called Life Insurance Finder who launched a very impressive and successful piece of link bait called “What Happens Online When You Die.”

Don’t just build the infographic, build a data visualization experience that exhausts the available digital assets. Create a video counterpart to that infographic, and highlight the source data to build a higher barrier to entry for those that will look to steal your success. Even right now you’re thinking that’s a lot of work; well think of how competitors will feel once that work is finished. Zappos has over 30,000 videos for its products; it is very difficult to compete with Zappos in video search because they got there first. Be the Zappos of the topic you visualize.

Link Building Pro Tip: Maximum Viable Products

Simply put, some people want infographics, some people want a page and some people want a video and the performance of the “What Happens When You Die Online” campaign is very indicative of that. Here are the numbers:

  • Page – 258 Links, 86 Root Domains, 172 Facebook Shares, 145 Tweets, 51 +1s
  • Video – 81,072 views, 2071 Facebook Shares, 69 links, 10 Root Domains, 2601 Tweets, 61 +1s
  • Infographic – 86 Links, 28 Root Domains, 31 Facebook Shares, 99 Tweets, 16 +1s

Make it easy to link to you, give the people what they want.

TACTICS

  • Seed to Your Influencers – You have pre-contacted influencers for this very reason. Spell out their involvement in your content so they are compelled to link to it, share it and otherwise endorse it.
     
  • Reach out to your Targets – The list of prospects you’ve created have been waiting for this moment. Ideally, you will reach out to them first in social media and then escalate to email.
     
  • Contact Those Already Linking to You – Pull your existing links using a link index tool and then inform all of the relevant people that already link to you that you have launched a new piece of incredible content.
     
  • Leverage Your Mailing List – At this point your mailing list should be full of people that want to find out about your content. Inform them of your new content and include the relevant embed code to make it easy for users to link to you.
     
  • Add to the Conversation – Head back to the forums, blogs, message boards and Q&A sites and contextually add to the on-going conversation and when it makes sense add a link to your content.

Month 4 - Release An Ebook

MONTH FOUR – RELEASE AN EBOOK AND GUEST POST

By now you and/or your team have written the most incredible e-book your niche has ever seen with the best graphic design and interesting if not new insights on your subject. Luckily, you’ve saved some room for your new influential buddies to get a piece of the action and enough tangential or cutting room floor content to spread it around and get the most mileage out of it.

TACTICS

  • Exclusive Release – Align with an influential site in your space that gets a lot of traffic and offer your E-Book as an exclusive download.
     
  • Guest Post – A good guest posting opportunity typically serves two purposes. First, you are writing content for a third-party website wherein you can drop as many exact match anchor text links as you like. Secondly, you have an opportunity to leverage the eyeballs of users that frequent the site.
     
  • Foreword – Invite a key influencer to write the foreword of the book so their name can be attached to your promotions in social media and on other influential websites.
     
  • Quotes – Reach out to thought leaders in the space for quotes, similar to the pre-contacting done in the first month asking thought leaders for quotes keeps them aware of the process that you are making a book and once the book arrives you can easily reach out to those influencers and request a link or promotional support.
     
  • Reviews – Reach out to bloggers that specifically write book reviews in your space. Simply search for “[keyword] book review.” For example, if I were to write an SEO e-book I would certainly reach out to this gentleman, Ian Lurie, since he has reviewed an book about SEO in the past.
    Ian Lurie is a good gentleman into SEO Books
    (I just egobaited Ian here. Now when I tweet about it I can put "featuring @portenint" in the tweet)

 

Month 5: Host a Blog Contest

MONTH FIVE – HOST A BLOG CONTEST

In Month Six Oli suggests holding a contest in social media. I’m going to move that up one month in order to couple it with the event you will be throwing in Month Six. I’m also going to take another page out of Oli’s book and suggest this be a blogging contest.

The concept is quite simple:

  • Reach out to influencers in your space that are awesome writers
  • Convince them to write their best work
  • Offer awesome prizes
  • Decide the winners based on social metrics

You may be few thousand dollars lighter from the prizes you pay out, but you also have a ton of great content from thought leaders in your space which then turns into more linkable assets. You also have a ton of social shares that put your content in front of those influencers’ followers in social media.

Does it work? Well Unbounce ran the same contest and here’s the leaderboard:

Conversionfest 2011 Leaderboard

The posts led to a combined 20,000 unique visitors during the respective two week scoring periods of each post and twenty one posts that continue to drive substantial traffic and links for Unbounce.

TACTICS

At this point the content on your site will be robust enough to make linking to you easy and worthwhile. The following tactics will allow you to continually identify contextual prospects and grease the wheels for any ongoing outreach link building:

  • Set up Google Alerts – Use your brand name, the names of people involved in the business and target keywords as the queries that you are targeting in Google Alerts. If someone has mentioned you and not linked to you, quickly ask them for a link.
     
  • Ifttt– Set up automatic alerts using If That Then This for when the brand, keywords or guest post URLs are mentioned in social media. Reach out to those people and encourage them to link to you.
     
  • LinkStant – Find out when someone is linking to you as they are writing their post and ask for updated anchor text.
     
  • Image Search – Google’s image search allows you to search for sites that have embedded your infographic and request that they cite their source by linking to you.
     
  • Video Search – Sometimes people re-upload videos to YouTube and that causes the views to be split between them. Search for those videos on YouTube and then search for the URL in Google to find sites that have embedded your video and request that they switch videos and link to you.

Once the competition is over, revisit your badge strategy by sending all entrants a badge and encouraging them to link back to their post.

Month 6: Throw an Event

MONTH SIX – THROW AN EVENT

You may have heard that the best way to get someone to link to you is to buy them a beer; throwing an event is the scaled version of that. Throwing a successful event naturally generates a lot of fanfare, promotion and chatter that will also lead to links.

First, you must decide what type of event you want to put on:

  • Meetup
  • Conference
  • Party
  • Dinner

TACTICS

Ask People You Know To Link To You – The people that you specifically invite to your event should be the type of people that you want to link to you. Show them a good time and encourage them to write about your event after the fact.

  • Press Releases - These have been abused by SEOs on PRWeb and Businesswire for content launches and link building but they are most effective in the case of launching an event.
     
  • Reach Out Directly to Journalists – Find journalists with the keyword searches “columnist for [publication]” and “writes for [publication].”Invite these people out and show them a great time.
     
  • Handwritten Notes – Follow up after the event is over with handwritten notes so potential linkers remember you and your hospitality.

FINAL QUICK HITS

  • The SEER Method - For your grand sendoff use the SEER Interactive method; pull your full list of followers using SimplyMeasured and pull your complete backlink profile with MajesticSEO, expand any shortened URLs and do VLOOKUPs to determine what users are following you, but not linking to you and reach out to them.
     
  • Find Who Shared Your Stuff – Similarly, using Topsy, pull the profiles for all the people that shared your URLs and perform a VLOOKUP to see what users shared your content but didn’t link to you and reach out to them.

CONGRATS!

Presumably, you’ve made it through not one, but two guides on how to successfully launch a new web property and ultimately get visibility not just in the SERPs but amongst key influencers in your vertical. I hope now that link building doesn’t seem quite as daunting as it once did and I wish you great success!

Remember there are two solid ways to build links: Make News or Make Friends.

Which one are you prepared to do?


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Whiteboard+ on Google's Penguin Update

Posted: 08 May 2012 02:33 AM PDT

Posted by randfish

Yesterday, I filmed some quick thoughts on Google's Penguin update. You can find the full video on our Google+ page:

Google Penguin Update Whiteboard+

In it, I cover a few unique items about Penguin:

  • It's (weirdly) not focused on improving search quality
  • It appears to affect some of the worst spam (but not all) and some very light forms of spam/manipulation (oddly)
  • Not tied to on-page or on-site necessarily, though outlinks may be looked at and several other updates occurred at similar times (making it tough to reverse engineer what might have caused a penalty)
  • Appears to affect a disproportionate number of web service industry sites (though that could be correlation, not causation)
  • Not yet clear if this a rolling update (though there are signs it may be)
  • Left a lot of very strange, "empty" types of results in many of the spammiest verticals/SERPs

I wanted to crosspost about it here so those asking for my opinions about Penguin could check it out. Look forward to some great discussion on G+ (or here in the comments). Oh, and if you haven't encircled SEOmoz on Google+... You totally should! We've got another WB+ video coming out very soon :-)


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The Garden Tour in Pictures: White House Google+ Photowalk

The White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, May 9, 2012

 

The Garden Tour in Pictures: White House Google+ Photowalk

For forty years, the White House has opened its doors and welcomed visitors from across the country to tour the grounds and gardens. This year, we invited thirty of our photo enthusiast followers on Google+ to join us for the first ever White House Google+ Photowalk.

During the visit, our photowalkers toured the South Lawn and Kitchen Garden, met White House photographers, and were surprised by First Dog Bo.

Check out the full gallery of photos from the White House Photowalk:

WH Google+ Photowalk

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

All-of-the-Above, In Action
By approving the Greater Natural Buttes gas development project in Utah, which could produce more than six trillion cubic feet of natural gas over its life, the Department of the Interior has taken another step towards fulfulling President Obama's all-of-the-above strategy to develop American energy.

#ThankATeacher: Your Words of Gratitude
During National Teacher Appreciation week, Americans across the country are thanking teachers for their service.

Republicans Vote to Block Student Loan Bill
In a statement to reporters, Press Secretary Jay Carney expresses his dissatisfaction with the vote by Senate Republicans to block the student loan bill.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

10:45 AM: The President and Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

2:10 PM: The President and Vice President meet with NATO Secretary-General Rasmussen

2:45 PM: The President and Vice President meet with Secretary Geithner

5:00 PM: The President meets with senior advisors

6:30 PM: The Vice President will host a dinner for Democratic House Freshmen at the Naval Observatory

7:15 PM: The President and First Lady host a concert honoring songwriters Burt Bacharach and Hal David as part of "In Performance at the White House" series; The President delivers remarks

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : How to make money online

How to make money online

  1. The first step is to stop Googling things like, "how to make money online." Not because you shouldn't want to make money online, but because the stuff you're going to find by doing that is going to help you lose money online. Sort of liking asking a casino owner how to make money in Vegas...
  2. Don't pay anyone for simple and proven instructions on how to achieve this goal. In particular, don't pay anyone to teach you how to write or sell manuals or ebooks about how to make money online.
  3. Get rich slow.
  4. Focus on the scarce resource online: attention. If you try to invent a way to take cheap attention and turn it into cash, you will fail. The attention you want isn't cheap, it's difficult to get via SEO and it rarely scales. Instead, figure out how to earn expensive attention.
  5. In addition to attention, focus on trust. Trust is even more scarce than attention.
  6. Don't worry so much about the 'online' part. Instead, figure out how to create value. The online part will take care of itself.
  7. Don't quit your day job. Start evenings and weekends and figure it out with small failures.
  8. Build a public reputation. A good one, and be sure that you deserve it, and that it will hold up to scrutiny.
  9. Obsessively specialize. No niche is too small if it's yours.
  10. Connect the disconnected.
  11. Lead.
  12. Build an online legacy that increases in value daily.
  13. Make money offline. If you can figure out how to create value face to face, it's a lot easier to figure out how to do the same digitally. The web isn't magic, it's merely efficient.
  14. Become the best in the world at something that people value. Easier said than done, worth more than you might think.
  15. Hang out with people who aren't looking for shortcuts. Learn from them.
  16. Fail. Fail often and fail cheaply. This is the very best gift the web has given to people who want to bootstrap their way into a new business.
  17. Make money in the small and then relentlessly scale.
  18. Don't chase yesterday's online fad.
  19. Think big, act with intention and don't get bogged down in personalities. If it's not on your agenda, why are you wasting time on it?
  20. Learn. Ceaselessly. Learn to code, to write persuasively, to understand new technologies, to bring out the best in your team, to find underused resources and to spot patterns.
  21. This is not a zero sum game. The more you add to your community, the bigger your piece gets.

A few years ago I put my book The Bootstrapper's Bible online for free. You can find it here.



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marți, 8 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Tea Party Ousts 6-Term Republican Senator in Indiana Primary for Not Being Conservative Enough; Extreme Polarization of Politics in Greece, Europe, and US; Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum

Posted: 08 May 2012 10:42 PM PDT

On Tuesday, six-term Republican senator Richard Lugar was ousted  in shocking defeat in the Indiana primary to Tea Party activist Richard Mourdock, Indiana state's treasurer.

Mourdock sent Lugar down in flames as he questioned Lugar's policies on immigration, Supreme Court nominees, the "Dream Act", and bank bailouts. Mourdock said Lugar was "not conservative enough".

As proof of how extreme things have gotten, the Indiana Democratic Party released a statement Tuesday evening thanking Mr. Lugar for his service and criticizing Mr. Mourdock as an "extremist" who is "out of touch with Hoosiers."

The New York Times has details in Mourdock Defeats Lugar in Indiana Senate Primary

Clearly, there is increasingly little chance for moderates anywhere.

In Europe, 11 governments have collapsed over austerity measures. German chancellor Angela Merkel may be the next to go.

Chaos in Greece

Extreme polarization in Greece is such that no political party could gather as much as 20% of the vote. Indeed the top two parties combined could not even muster 33% of the vote.

For details and further discussion, please see


Polarization in US

For polarization in the US, look no further than the surprising showing of Rick Santorum vs. so-called moderate Mitt Romney midway through the the Republican presidential primary.

Santorum finally stepped aside, but the damage has been done.

Please note that Romney is hardly a moderate in any sense of the word. Romney is a war-monger promoting war in Iran, trade wars with China, and still more military spending in spite of massive budget deficits.

Moreover, anyone who thinks president Obama and his union supportive stance is a moderate has mush for brains.

Greece Is Ungovernable Pariah State

My friend "HB" writes ...
Today the markets realized that it may become entirely impossible to form a government in Greece, even after another election.

In that case there will also not be the votes to continue with the bailout package. I think it is slowly sinking in what that could mean: the troika will no longer have anyone to negotiate with.

The IMF, EU,and ECB would see tens of billions each evaporate. Greece would become a pariah state and likely drop out of the euro, followed by either a radical leftist government taking power or a military coup.

Greece has become near ungovernable. Its infrastructure is crumbling, its jobless rate is over 20%, youth unemployment is 50%, and Greek administrative institutions are paralyzed and corrupt.

The empire is fraying at the edges - literally.

Greece may by itself not mean much, but it is the first modern industrialized post WW 2 welfare state to go completely bust. The signal alone should scare the bejeezuz out of market participants.
Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum

In the US, the presidential choice is between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. Take your pick as to who is who. In case you disagree, please consider ...


Frankly it does not matter except for four year's down the road, and except for near-term Supreme Court appointees. Romney wants to overturn Roe vs. Wade, believes corporations are people, and strip searches are fine on the the flimsiest of excuses, three extreme positions.

Are those reflective of extreme positions or core US values?

Ignoring the Supreme Court effect, both candidates are war mongers and ObamaCare is the same RomneyCare (even though Romney campaigns against himself).

Inane Election Choices

The only real choice in this election is whether 4 years from now you want to face the inane possibility of Romney winning 4 more years vs. the inane choice of Obama winning 4 more years now (knowing in advance he is gone 4 years from now).

As we sit back and watch Greece and France disintegrate into a morass of extreme politics, the shocking defeat of Richard Lugar in the Indiana primary to a Tea Party activist suggests the US is on the same path.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Chinese Architect Comments on "Dark Apartments", Vacancies, Residential Malinvestment

Posted: 08 May 2012 03:48 PM PDT

From the China anecdotes file, reader Gary writes ...

"Hi Mish, I have a friend that is an architect in Shanghai. I sent him an article that talked about counting dark apartments at night to determine vacancy rates. He confirms everything I've been reading on your blog."

My architect friend says...
Once you get out of the city and into the second tier cities these 50% vacancy figures ring true. I've been to so many smaller cities and they are full of residential high rises going up everywhere. Most have a significant vacancy rate from what I see just from driving by.

The idea of "build it they will come" mentality has been fueling this. However, the government has since put down some hard rules to slow all of this down but so many buildings were either just completed or in the middle of construction before these measures were put into effect.

What's sad is that these buildings are built very poorly and I'm not confident that they will survive long enough for the migration from rural to urban to occur. The developers here are severely handicapped when it comes to what and how to build. they are usually farmers who sold their land for big money and know absolutely nothing about developing profitable projects. They don't do any valid market research from what I can tell.

It's usually left up to us (the architecture firm) to figure things out for them.

Culturally these guys feel like they are the ones in power and must exhibit this power by making radical decisions so it appears to the cronies in the room that they are in charge. The crazy thing is China is so big and robust they can make many mistakes - build a shopping center, it fails, demolish, rebuild, all within short period of time - and they don't go bankrupt.

This type of program would ruin development in the united states but it doesn't have similar results here. I think it's going to take China another 20 years before they get up to speed and find their identity, until then China is still third world in terms of knowledge, quality of work.
Malinvestment is the word that best describes what Gary's architect friend describes.

It has indeed bankrupted many State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and such development will come to a screeching halt sooner rather than later as I have mentioned many times, most recently in 12 Predictions by Michael Pettis on China; Non-Food Commodity Prices Will Collapse Over Next Three to Four Years; Nails in the Hard Landing Coffin? 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List 


"Head Start" an Abysmal Failure for Kids, a Spectacular Success for Teachers

Posted: 08 May 2012 11:42 AM PDT

Head Start, a preschool program for low-income kids has been a spectacular success, not for kids, but for teachers and teachers' unions.

Please consider Miami-Dade County seeks to unload Head Start program, salaries
For more than four decades, Miami-Dade County officials have managed Head Start, the storied preschool program for children from low-income families. But the county now wants out — and "generous" salaries are partly to blame.

On average, Miami-Dade paid its Head Start teachers $76,860 in salary and fringe benefits in 2011, county records show. That's about 90 percent higher than the second highest-paying Head Start provider in the county, Catholic Charities, which paid its teachers an average of $40,418 in salary and benefits.

On the administrative side, 17 county Head Start staffers made more than $100,000 in salary and benefits.

Last week, the county submitted paperwork to offload much of the Head Start program to three local agencies: the Miami-Dade school system, Easter Seals of South Florida and the YWCA of Greater Miami-Dade.

But the plan has been met with resistance from some parents and politicians, who say the shake-up would hurt the current Head Start staffers.

About 400 county employees would face the prospect of either losing their jobs or accepting substantial pay cuts if the new agencies hire them.

"You're talking about great people who worked with kids for their entire lives with the county and now we're saying, 'We can do it cheaper,' " said Evelio Torres, president and CEO of Early Learning Coalition of Miami-Dade/Monroe. "You're talking about people who are trying to pay their mortgages and support a family."

Head Start was created in 1964 as part of President Lyndon Johnson's Great Society campaign. The program provides free, full-day preschool and social services for low-income children.

Head Start has been a consistent money-loser for the county, in part because Miami-Dade pays its Head Start employees much higher salaries and better benefits than any other local providers, records show.

Last year, the average Head Start teacher on the county payroll made more than triple the $19,441 in salary and benefits given to Head Start teachers at Paradise Christian, Miami-Dade's lowest-paying Head Start provider.

The county's highest paid Head Start employee was director Jane McQueen, who received $188,624 in salary and benefits.
Key Concern of Politicians and Unions

Notice the key concern.

But the plan has been met with resistance from some parents and politicians, who say the shake-up would hurt the current Head Start staffers.

Where the H is the concern for kids?

Logic would dictate that if teachers' salaries were lower, then the county could afford a much higher teacher-to-student ratio.

Instead, the concern is for the teachers and administrators. The problem is corrupt politicians are in bed with the unions and administrators. The former seeks to buy votes from the latter. The latter does not give a rat's ass about the kids.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


SYRIZA's Tsipras Lists Bailout Rejection as Key Demand; Don't Rule Out a SYRIZA Coalition; Eventually May Be At Hand; Why SYRIZA Will Win the Next Election

Posted: 08 May 2012 09:36 AM PDT

The opportunity for Greece to tell the Troika to "go to hell" is at hand, if only the political left can stop bickering long enough to form a coalition.

Bailout Rejection Key Demand

Alexis Tsipras (SYRIZA's leader) says he will use all three allotted days to do so. His key demand is a bailout rejection, which would mean a eurozone exit whether that is his intention or not. 

Please consider SYRIZA's Tsipras to make bailout rejection key bargaining point
The SYRIZA leader is expected to meet the head of the Democratic Left, Fotis Kouvelis, at 3.30 p.m., Ecologist Greens representative Ioanna Kontouli at 5.30 p.m. and the Social Pact president Louka Katseli at 7 p.m.

Tsipras has indicated that he will use the full three days at his disposal to talk with all the party leaders, including those of New Democracy and PASOK, but barring Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn).

Because of the 50-seat bonus received by the first party, in this case New Democracy, there is no way SYRIZA can form a government without ND if it does not secure the support of PASOK and the Communist Party (KKE).

KKE leader Aleka Papariga has already rejected any idea of cooperation with SYRIZA, although Tsipras will meet with her to discuss the matter.

The only other option open to SYRIZA is to receive the backing of ND and PASOK, which seems unlikely.

Sources have suggested that Tsipras will present a three-point proposal to his counterparts, which will include the rejection of the bailout terms.

Leading SYRIZA MP Panayiotis Lafazanis told Skai radio on Tuesday that the party would seek for some of Greece's debt to be written off.

"SYRIZA will ask for the debt to be renegotiated with the aim of its larger party being written off," he said, adding that the leftist party does not recognise debt that is not sustainable and which Greeks cannot pay.
Tsipras' Five Point Proposal

Please consider Tsipras lays out five points of coalition talks

  1. The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.
  2. The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.
  3. The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system.
  4. An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.
  5. The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.
Election Process

An email from Barclays Capital Explains the Greek election process and dates:
Political uncertainty remains high in Greece. A new electoral round (which would probably be held on 10 or 17 June) looks increasing likely at this stage as, in our view, none of the three parties with the most votes seem likely to be able to secure Parliamentary support for a coalition government.

ND's leader Samaras (who came first at Sunday's ballot) declared yesterday he was unable to form a government, while Alexis Tsipras (SYRIZA's leader, who came second) seems likely to face difficulties to find support of other large left-wing parties. According to sources quoted by Kathimerini, Mr. Tsipras (SYRIZA's leader) will try in fact to reach an agreement with Communist Party (KKE) and Democratic Left, a moderate, pro-Europe grouping, although KKE has already ruled out any cooperation.

While PASOK will be also entitled to try to form a government (should SYRIZA's attempt fail), we think it will be difficult by then to form a coalition able to secure an outright majority in the Parliament.

In a second general election only the seven parties who received seats in Sunday's vote would be eligible to participate. Were there to be a second election, we think New Democracy and PASOK would probably seek to turn the election into a decision on Greece's membership of the euro. If there was still an inconclusive result after a second election, then it is likely that Lucas Papademos would be invited to form another technical government.
Eventually May Be At Hand

Here is a point that Barclays missed.

SYRIZA came in second place in this election. Perhaps SYRIZA comes in first place in the next election. If so, it would pick up an extra 50 seats.

As I have said on numerous occasions, Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....
Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.
Why SYRIZA Will Win the Next Election

Alexis Tsipras is saying all the right things (in terms of what most Greeks want to hear). His surprise second-place finish is likely to become a surprise first-place finish in the next election, perhaps by a lot more than anyone thinks.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Greeks Political Parties Prefer Chaos Over Compromise; June 17 Elections on the Way; Next Bailout Tranche at Risk

Posted: 08 May 2012 08:18 AM PDT

In the wake of the Greek election, one thing is clear: No party or coalition of parties is in control. More elections are coming, but will the results be any different?

In the meantime, the next disbursement of Greece bailout funds is at risk, and Greece faces being unable to meet pension, salary and debt commitments next month.

Please consider Greece braces for a repeat of elections
Greece is bracing for a repeat general election after its centre-right leader failed to win leftwing support to form a "national salvation government" in the wake of Sunday's inconclusive outcome at the polls.

"We are now heading for a second vote next month in a deeply polarised atmosphere," said a disappointed government official. The repeat election would probably take place on June 17, he said.

Decision-making on further reforms, including finalising a new €11.5bn medium-term austerity package, will be stalled until a new administration is in place.

"Only non-political measures can go ahead," the official said, admitting that it will be hard to push forward with 77 separate structural reforms due to be completed during June.

The stalemate puts at risk the timetable for disbursement of Greece's next loan tranche from its second €174bn bailout. Despite a recent transfer of €3.5bn to cover financial emergencies, the country faces being unable to meet pension, salary and debt commitments next month.

The European Union and International Monetary Fund have warned they will block further loan disbursements until the next Greek parliament approves the medium-term package, which would include deep cuts in healthcare spending and in public sector employment – measures that triggered parliamentary rebellions under the two previous governments.
June 17 Elections on the Way 

Let's hope this is the end of the end of the insanity in Greece instead of yet another package of proposals that sinks Greece further into ruin for the sole purpose of bailing out French and German banks.

The sooner Greece tells the Troika "Go to Hell", the sooner Greece has the potential to be on the road to recovery. 

The keyword in the above sentence is "potential". Greece has a zero percent chance under Troika proposals. However, unless Greece adopts genuine reform on work rules and pensions, it is headed to the gutter, bailouts or not.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List