Central Perk

duminică, 13 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Greek Communist Party Calls For Annulment of Greek Loan Deal; Yet Another Unfortunate Atttempt to Broker a Deal
Mud Slinging Carries the Day in Greece; Again and Again Samaras Proves He's a Liar; New Elections Likely
Crushing Defeat for Merkel's CDU Party in German Elections as Voters Reject Austerity; Crown Prince Turns Into Frog
Good News From Greece: Greek Unity Talks Hit Impasse; Math Lesson For New Democracy; Syriza Up to 25.5% in Latest Polls

Greek Communist Party Calls For Annulment of Greek Loan Deal; Yet Another Unfortunate Atttempt to Broker a Deal

Posted: 13 May 2012 04:58 PM PDT

I was hoping for an election announcement today, but the pressure is on for "one" more day as Greek President to Meet Four Party Leaders Tomorrow in one more attempt to form a "Unity Coalition".

Greek President Karolos Papoulias will meet with political party leaders at 7:30 p.m. tomorrow as discussions on forming a national unity government continue, state-run NET TV said, without citing anyone.

New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos and the head of the Democratic Left party Fotis Kouvelis will attend the meeting, NET reported. NET initially said that Syriza party head Alexis Tsipras was also expected to attend the meeting, but later reported he would not be taking part.

Greek Communist Head Calls For Annulment of Greek Loan Deal

The Wall Street Journal reports Greek Communist Head Calls For Annulment Of Greek Loan Deal

The head of Greece's Communist KKE party Sunday called for the annulment of the country's loan deal, ruling out her party's participation in a coalition government, even as Greece scrambles to resolve a weeklong political deadlock following inconclusive polls last week.

"We will introduce legislation in the Greek parliament, which is going to set out very specifically the elimination and annulment of the [loan agreement], Aleka Papariga said after a meeting with Greece's president Karolos Papoulias.

For the benefit of Greece and taxpayers in the Eurozone in general, let's hope this last attempt to form a coalition falls flat.

The sooner Greece leaves the euro, the sooner it will have a chance to recover.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mud Slinging Carries the Day in Greece; Again and Again Samaras Proves He's a Liar; New Elections Likely

Posted: 13 May 2012 12:06 PM PDT

Things are looking better for Greece as the latest report is Greek coalition talks break down in acrimony.

Greece appeared to be heading for fresh national elections after last-ditch coalition talks chaired by the country's president ended in mutual mud-slinging by the conservative, socialist and leftwing leaders.

Antonis Samaras, leader of the centre-right New Democracy party, said the radical left coalition Syriza had blocked efforts to break the deadlock, even after a letter from premier Lucas Papademos was circulated at the meeting outlining Greece's deteriorating fiscal position.

Tax collection slowed markedly during the election campaign, putting budget deficit targets at risk, according to a finance ministry official. Prolonged political instability would also delay the implantation of a €40bn recapitalisation scheme for Greek banks included in the country's second bailout by international lenders, the official said.

Mr Samaras criticised Syriza's 37-year-old leader for refusing to help form a coalition or support a government that would try to re-negotiate the terms of the bailout. "I don't know where (Alexis) Tsipras is heading," Mr Samaras said at the end of a 90-minute meeting described as "highly charged" by presidential aides.

Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), accused the Syriza leader of "showing arrogance" by opposing a coalition deal.

Again and Again Samaras Proves He's a Liar

Samaras' idea that terms of the bailout can be renegotiated is a complete farce and he knows it. He is simply looking for any way to get into power.

Moreover, falling tax receipts means only one thing: harsher austerity terms and more demand from Germany not less. If there was any change of heart from Germany, it would be up to Germany to lead the way, not Greece. Samaras knows this as well.

I suppose one can accuse Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras of lies as well, given he is running on a platform of staying in the Euro as well as defaulting on debts. However, anyone with an IQ above the level of a rock knows that is impossible.

Let's hope for another election on June 10th or 17th, one with a clear mandate to tell the Troika to go to hell. Such an outcome is in the clear best interest of all of Europe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Crushing Defeat for Merkel's CDU Party in German Elections as Voters Reject Austerity; Crown Prince Turns Into Frog

Posted: 13 May 2012 11:32 AM PDT

The BBC reports New election blow for Germany's Merkel

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives have suffered heavy losses in an election in Germany's most populous state, exit polls suggest.

Support for the Christian Democrats dropped from 35% to 26% in North Rhine-Westphalia, with the Social Democrats set to return to power with the Greens.

It is the Christian Democrats' worst result in the state.

Analysts say many voters rejected Mrs Merkel's tough line on fiscal discipline as a cure for state debt.

In another development, the exit polls suggested Germany's Pirate Party had won seats in North Rhine-Westphalia, making it their fourth state parliament.

The Pirate Party has grown in strength recently with its calls for transparency and internet freedom.

According to two exit polls, the Social Democrats (SPD) won around 38%, the Christian Democrats (CDU) 25.5%, the Greens 12%, the Free Democrats (FDP) 8.5%, the Pirates 7.5% and the Left, 2.5%.

The FDP, the CDU's national coalition partner, performed better than expected, increasing their vote by nearly two percentage points and thereby giving the lie to speculation that they might fail to win seats.

When the CDU and FDP recently lost elections in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, Mrs Merkel's party scored its lowest tally there for 50 years.

German Voters Reject Austerity

The Financial Times reports German Voters Reject Austerity

Angela Merkel's centre-right Christian Democratic Union suffered a bruising defeat on Sunday night in the election of a new parliament in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, when the centre-left opposition of Social Democrats and Greens won a clear majority.

The vote for the CDU slumped to just 26 per cent, according to the first exit polls, by far its worst result in the state in the post-war period, and a serious setback for the German chancellor.

The outcome will be seen as a rejection by voters of the strict austerity policy promoted by Ms Merkel's party at both local and national level, and a boost for the opposition. It will encourage the SPD and Greens to campaign all out for a "red-green" coalition at national level when Ms Merkel stands for re-election in autumn 2013.

However the biggest casualty will be Norbert Röttgen, environment minister in Berlin and leader of the CDU in NRW, who immediately took responsibility for the disastrous defeat and announced his resignation from the local party leadership.

Mr Röttgen, who was regarded as a crown prince and potential successor to Ms Merkel, had sought to make the government's austerity policy in Berlin and in Europe the central theme of the NRW campaign. The outcome suggests that he made a mistake in doing so, and that the CDU espousal of austerity in NRW actually lost the party votes.

Crown Prince Turns Into Frog

It is probably amazing to most US citizens that a political party named "Pirates" running on a platform of internet freedom could win any seats. Such is the nature of European politics where parties get representation if they meet a small threshold, in Germany's case, a mere five percent.

The big news is not the Pirate Party but the trouncing CDU took at the hands of the Social Democrats.

Ex-crown prince, Mr. Röttgen, is now a toad because he played himself as a Merkel clone. He tried to take the blame for this debacle, but without a doubt Merkel will bear the brunt of the blame.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Good News From Greece: Greek Unity Talks Hit Impasse; Math Lesson For New Democracy; Syriza Up to 25.5% in Latest Polls

Posted: 13 May 2012 09:26 AM PDT

Under the category of good news from Greece, the Financial Times reports Greek Unity Talks Hit Impasse.

Talks between Greece's president and the leaders of the country's three largest political parties on forming a coalition government reached an impasse on Sunday, increasing the chances that the country will hold fresh national elections in June.

Antonis Samaras, the conservative leader, said the radical left coalition Syriza had blocked a last-ditch effort to break the deadlock.

"Syriza doesn't accept the formation of a viable government, or agree to support a government that would seek to renegotiate the terms of the bailout," Mr Samaras said after the 90-minute meeting chaired by Karolos Papoulias at the presidential mansion.

Alexis Tsipras, the Syriza leader, said after the meeting: "They wanted Syriza to collude in a crime … to ignore the voice of the people", referring to the fact that 70 per cent of Greeks voting last Sunday backed anti-austerity parties.

Math Lesson For New Democracy

Note the irony in New Democracy leader Samaras placing the blame on Alexis Tsipras.

Syriza got 16.2% of the vote. Precisely whose fault is it that Samaras cannot muster a simple majority without that 16%?

Perhaps the message that parties do not want to join a coalition that has raped and tortured Greek citizens to bailout German and French banks ought to sink into Samaras' thick head.

Snatching Defeat From Jaws of Victory

Until new elections are actually called, however, eurosceptics still fear the answer to this question: Will Greece Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory?

Pressure from the Troika and fear-mongering by all the politicians in the bailout-bed will be immense. There will be another decade of pain and suffering for Greeks if they stick to the Troika plan.

However, there will be short but intense pain for Greeks if they tell the Troika to shove it. Which is worse? It seems Greeks have come to the correct conclusion.

Syriza Up to 25.5% in Latest Polls

Please consider Latest polls shows clear lead for far-left Syriza

Real News reports that the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) has gained support at the expense of the other parties. It puts Syriza on 25.5 percent, New Democracy on 21 percent, PASOK on 14.6 percent and the Communists KKE on 5.3 percent.

Given that Greek law gives the winning party an extra 50 seats in parliament, a coalition between SYRIZA and one or two leftist parties is now in sight, yet another math lesson for Samaras as well as Troika-clown Evangelos Venizelos, leader of Pasok a Greek socialist party whose support in the polls is now down to 10%.

In general, I have little use for socialists and radical left parties of any kind. However, they are the only ones talking sense about what needs to happen to the bailout agreements.

The simple fact of the matter is Greece will not recover until it defaults on all external debt. Once that happens, and Greece takes a dive, hopefully new political forces can put Greece on the right path to needed reform.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Colossal Day of Craziness!

Posted: 12 May 2012 01:38 AM PDT

Posted by MozCTO

Hello, I am Anthony Skinner, the CTO of MozLand!

Many of you were affected by several SEOmoz tool issues that happened last week, unfortunately all colliding into one colossal day of craziness on May 3rd. We want to first apologize for any inconveniences or problems that these issues caused you.

The good news is that our awesome engineers fixed these problems quickly, but we want to share an update of what happened, how we fixed it, and what we’re doing to prevent "colossal days of craziness" from ever happening again. So, here’s the inside scoop (y’all know we like that whole transparency thing 'n stuff ;-)).

So, down to the nitty gritty of what happened last week and where we are now....

Status	Issue
Fixed	Rankings – Rankings were delayed by a couple of days for all customers due to some intermittent outages in our database. This delay caused custom reports without rankings data. Fix: After trying it the hard way, we had a eureka moment (in the shower, no less) and promoted our back-up disks to primary, resolving the problem almost immediately. Why it won’t happen again: We had planned for SSD failures, but did not expect to see a full cluster failure at one time. Going forward, we’ll be looking at making sure we’re using SSDs appropriately, and, when we do use SSDs, having more robust failover plans in place. We’re also changing the way custom reports are built to speed up the process, and enhancing custom reports to wait on dependencies.
Fixed	Slow Open Site Explorer CSV Reports, and Mozscape API calls were failing – The Mozscape API was running noticeably slower and reports weren’t finishing. We found two export jobs that were continually requeuing themselves, severely backing up the CSV reports queue. Fix: We fixed the condition causing the queueing and made some adjustments to the load balancing on the servers. Why it won’t happen again: To prevent the queues backing up in the future, we’ve added a hook to prevent failed jobs from re-queuing. Monitoring and alarms have also been added to notify our ops team if these queues start backing up.
Fixed	Campaign Setup and Custom Crawl – Users were running into an error message when trying to create new campaigns, and some users were seeing a dramatic reduction in the number of pages crawled. Fix: With some creative ops magic, our engineers were able to configure the proper permissions and get campaign creation working again. Truncated crawls were caused by a race condition. We also made the transition between finalizing the crawling of a campaign and scheduling the next crawl smoother, which resolved this race condition. Affected campaigns were re-crawled so users could receive a full weekly crawl. Why it won’t happen again: We’re working to do better testing at scale and to create more defined unit tests to catch these types of race conditions that don't appear in small scale testing. We’re also working on better monitoring around the campaign crawl service and decoupling campaign creation from the custom crawl service so back end crawler problems will not have such a dramatic affect on the usability of the rest of the SEOmoz PRO app.
Fixed	Delay in SEOmoz PRO Web App picking up the new index - Our latest index update wasn’t reflected in the SEOmoz PRO web app right away. Fix: We redeployed an old endpoint in our API that we had been using for campaigns to pick up the new index metrics. We also updated the PRO software to use the new endpoints that Mozscape API now supports. Why it won’t happen again: We updated our release procedures, and also updated the PRO app to use a new Mozscape API endpoint that publicizes the index launch date. This improvement will mean much smoother updates to Mozscape API campaign metrics in the future.
Fixed	Social – PRO users trying to connect their Facebook accounts were receiving an error message. We were getting odd data back from the Facebook API indicating users' authentication data expired - like 25 years ago :). Fix: We’ve updated the Facebook connection to return the correct time format. Why it won’t happen again: To be honest, we’re not sure it won’t... We’ll try to stay on top of changes in Facebook and update our app before the changes affect our users.

We’re also going to be putting some of the new funding (read the memenouncement here) towards making sure things like this do not happen again. We’re investing in infrastructure improvements (blog post to come) to both help keep things running smoothly, and bring you new features and improve stability all around. We’re also hiring... if you’re a brilliant, motivated SEO-lover, apply here.

Again, many apologies for the inconvenience this caused all of you. We’ve learned a lot in this process and will keep doing our darnedest to keep things running smoothly.

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Don't forget!

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Don't forget!

It's Mother's Day!

As rewarding as being a mom can be, it sure isn't easy. That's part of why the Obama Administration is taking steps to level the playing field for mothers and their families.

To help you show some appreciation for the mom in your life, we've put together two Mother's Day cards. One focuses on important health care reforms and the other on heroic military moms across the country.

Check them out and share them:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/mothersday

From all of us here at the White House, Happy Mother's Day!

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Seth's Blog : Dedicating the merit

Dedicating the merit

For an author, one of the nicest parts of the traditional book is the dedication page. The dedication is far more than an acknowledgement to someone who helped you write the book, it's a permanent signpost, a capstone to the work of a year or more.

Even if the person you've dedicated the book to can't read it, the writer benefits from the knowledge that a connection was made and that a memory was preserved.

Here's the thing: you can dedicate just about anything. A project, a meeting, a tweet. You don't have to tell anyone but yourself. This blog post, like all the posts before it, has a dedication page, at least in my head.

When you start creating for and in honor of those that have made a difference to you, your work changes.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 12 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Brussels Raises Red Flag on French Deficit, Hollande Blames Hidden Taxes of Sarkozy; France in Deep Trouble Already
Tax Collection Violence in Italy: Mail Bombs in Rome, Police Clashes in Naples, Molotov Cocktails in Livorno
Will Greece Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory?

Brussels Raises Red Flag on French Deficit, Hollande Blames Hidden Taxes of Sarkozy; France in Deep Trouble Already

Posted: 12 May 2012 10:14 PM PDT

French president-elect François Hollande has launched a preemptive attack blaming outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy for the huge budget deficit of France.

Given Hollande wants to tax millionaires 75%, I find it quite ironic that Hollande blames the problem on "hidden taxes" of Sarkozy.

Please consider Brussels raises alert over French deficit

Brussels has raised a red flag on France's budget deficit next year, in a warning over a €24bn fiscal shortfall that threatens to develop into a confrontation with Paris over austerity.

François Hollande, the French Socialist president-elect who has warned against over-reliance on austerity, said he had "anticipated" the deterioration in public finances and blamed "hidden taxes" left behind by the outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy.

European Commission forecasts unveiled on Friday suggest France is expected to meet its deficit target of 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2012, but its shortfall next year will be 4.2 per cent – well short of the 3 per cent EU target. Closing the 1.2 per cent gap would require savings or new taxes amounting to about €24bn.

France was one of 13 countries in the 17-strong eurozone that Brussels said it expected to miss their deficit targets for 2013, with the total deficit for the single currency bloc slipping by 1 per cent of overall output.

Spain fell badly short, nursing an expected 6.3 per cent deficit next year – some 3.3 per cent wide of its target.

Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner responsible for economic affairs, said he was "waiting for the French authorities to decide which measures will be introduced for 2013".

Mr Hollande, who campaigned for growth initiatives alongside austerity measures, will find it harder to hit the target if the EU growth forecasts for France prove correct. Brussels forecasts growth at 1.3 per cent next year, weaker than the 1.7 per cent expected by the incoming Hollande administration.

Tax-raising measures account for 40 per cent of Mr Hollande's deficit-reduction programme, and 60 per cent spending cuts, but the Socialist president-elect has been vague about where the cuts will fall.

Hollande in Deep Trouble Already

Note that Hollande does not have the decency or the courage to name his budget cuts.

Moreover, I can guarantee cuts will be bigger and/or the tax hikes greater than he has announced because growth estimates in France are wildly optimistic.

Specifically, the idea that France is going to grow 1.7% next year is preposterous.

I am willing to bet France will not grow at all. If so, expect still more austerity measures or tax hikes, with protests spreading to France as they did in Greece, Spain, and Italy.

The result will be as happened in Greece. Voters will start backing any candidate willing to tell Brussels and the Troika to go to hell.

Marine Le Pen is one such candidate on the right. She is in favor of exiting the eurozone. Expect to see counterparts on the left willing to say the same thing as politics splinters in country after country.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Tax Collection Violence in Italy: Mail Bombs in Rome, Police Clashes in Naples, Molotov Cocktails in Livorno

Posted: 12 May 2012 08:09 AM PDT

Violent protests against the hated Equitalia, the Italian tax collection agency, are making headlines in several cities in the past few days. In Rome mail bombings have been ongoing since December. Via Google Translate, this time in Italian, please consider a trio of articles.

Equitalia, six months of mail bombs

MILAN - Equitalia once again in the crosshairs. After the envelope with gunpowder delivered Friday to the see of Rome, in Via Giuseppe Grezar, last night, two Molotov cocktails were thrown against the door of the agency's headquarters in Livorno. This is the latest in a long series of parcel bombs and suspicious envelopes arrived in recent months in various offices of the Italian society of recovery.

THE FIRST PACKS-BOMB - The first package bomb delivered to Equitalia comes in via Millevoi, in Rome, December 9 last year. The bomb explodes in the hands of the director general, Mark Cockaigne, that is wounded in the hand and eye. On 12 December a large firecracker exploded outside the headquarters of the agency Equitalia in Naples. The explosion causes damage of the lower part of the gate valve iron input current Southern.

On 15 December an envelope, containing gunpowder and a primer, is caught in the seat of Equitalia Flaminio in Rome on the Tiber. On 20 December an envelope containing white powder with no sender is delivered to the site via Equitalia Millevoi. On 22 December, two envelopes containing suspicious powder is delivered to the Stock Exchange in the square in Milan and the Business of Equitalia in Via San Gregorio. On 4 January an anonymous caller warns of a bomb the headquarters of Perugia Equitalia. After the appropriate checks reveals a false alarm.

January 5 at Leghorn a threatening letter and a 7.65 caliber bullet is sent to the Director of the office of Equitalia of Livorno. The same day at Caserta a parcel containing gunpowder and intended to Equitalia of Caserta is intercepted by the Post Office, insospettitesi the lack of sender. Inside is also found a threatening letter. On January 9, an envelope containing suspicious powder and addressed to Equitalia is intercepted in the post office of Ischia and a second envelope with gunpowder and a piece of rope as a wick reaches the site of the Tiber Equitalia Flaminio in Rome.

Less than ten days later, on January 26, two envelopes are delivered, within an hour, in two different offices of the agency in Milan: the first at the headquarters of Via San Gregorio, the second on a Dell 'Innovation.

'N PAY THE CONSEQUENCES "- On 14 March, another envelope with suspicious powder was intercepted in Cosenza. The letter, sent to the registered capital of Calabria, contains electric wires with a triggering mechanism. To alert the police post is a postal sorting center of Cosenza, who became suspicious after seeing out of the envelope of gray dust. The letter also contains a sheet with a sentence written in large letters: "you'll pay the consequences." On April 27, false alarm for the two coffee cans connected with electric wire found outside the headquarters of Equitalia in Ivrea, near Turin. The bomb squad of policemen arrived to reclaim the land has not found any trigger.

On May 9, a bomb in the headquarters in Genoa by way of Equitalia Casaccie. The building was evacuated as a precaution, the accesses to the site are blocked by police.

Friday at 11.30, an envelope containing gunpowder was delivered to the Roman Equitalia, on Via Giuseppe Grezar. A first analysis was gunpowder inside but no ignition. The attorney on the case of Rome opened a file. Last night, finally, an attack with blows of Molotov cocktails has occurred against the headquarters of Equitalia of Livorno. Unknown assailants threw two Molotov cocktails against the door tax collection agency on the ground floor by way of Independence, in the city center. The fire caused damage outside the building. Investigates the incident Digos.

Livorno, Molotov against Equitalia

4 Molotov cocktails (two did not ignite) and a bomb against Equitalia.

A Molotov cocktail first, then after a second, the noise of people fleeing the fire that illuminates and Independence Street in the center of Livorno, where the headquarters of Equitalia. It is' an attempt, Digos confirms that from 4.30 am on Saturday doing assessments, together with the Scientific, the entrance of the palace collection agency. The police found abandoned on the road three more bombs and other unexploded bomb paper two Molotov cocktails. But most worrying of rudimentary primers were found that probably should be used to cause a fire that could spread to the rest of the building where there are also apartments.

The damage of the attack fortunately are mild because the alarm was triggered almost immediately.

A letter from someone describing himself as a desperate "maverick" believed to be harassed by the "demon of the tax," which "does not distinguish between poor and billionaires" and are not aware of having violated the rules to be beyond the law.

Clashes outside the headquarters of Equitalia in Naples

NAPLES - The demonstration outside the offices of Equitalia leads to violence. The police charged the demonstrators, one hundred, the "Network against Neapolitan Equitalia" who manned the headquarters of South Course in Naples. "Network" made up of temporary committees, community centers, networks, trade unions and student base.

Firecrackers - Against the offices of the headquarters of the collecting society were thrown eggs filled with red paint and two firecrackers exploded. Then, bottles and stones have gone against the agents of the mobile unit deployed outside the offices. Police responded to the pressure of the demonstrators charging for at least 4 times and throwing tear gas.

Expect the protests to become more frequent and more violent. Protests in Greece started much the same way. Mario Monti, the technocrat appointed to save Italy has lost support.

Reuters reports local vote result dims reform prospects

May 9, 2012 12:18pm EDT

The results of last weekend's local elections in Italy are likely to weaken Prime Minister Mario Monti and make it harder for him to push through unpopular reforms to shield the country from a worsening euro zone debt crisis.

The vote to elect mayors in more than 900 towns and cities saw heavy losses for the centre-right PDL, the largest party backing Monti's technocrat government, and a surge in support for a protest movement that wants Italy to leave the euro.

Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was quoted in Italian media as saying his PDL would no longer "lie down" before Monti after the party suffered a rout at the polls on Sunday and Monday, losing control of dozens of cities.

The centre-left PD, which also lost votes but is likely to boost its number of mayors in run-off ballots thanks to the implosion of the PDL, said Monti must now take more account of its positions, which are increasingly hostile to austerity.

Monti said on Tuesday that he did not believe the vote would affect his government, but many analysts disagree.

"The impression is that Monti is more isolated. Having been the shield of the parties, he now risks becoming their target," said political commentator Massimo Franco in the daily Corriere della Sera.

The only winner at the vote was the 5 Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo, a shaggy-haired comedian who wants Italy to quit the euro and default on its debt and whose caustic invective against the established parties has gained increasing resonance in the wake of a spate of corruption scandals.

Monti is not going to remain in control for long, assuming of course he is still in control in the first place.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Will Greece Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory?

Posted: 11 May 2012 11:54 PM PDT

Inquiring minds scoff at the preposterous Financial Times headline a 'Glimmer of hope' for Greek coalition

The "Glimmer of Hope" that Financial Times writer Kerin Hope speaks of is the possibility of a coalition that last until 2014 before new elections.

I strongly disagree. I believe another coalition whose sole purpose is to keep Greece in the eurozone will result in more years of useless torture.

Here are a few snips from the Financial Times.

Greek conservative leader Antonis Samaras said on Friday there were still hopes a government could be formed after Sunday's inconclusive election to avoid a repeat poll.

"We are fighting to form a government and there are still hopes this can done," Mr Samaras told his parliamentary group, adding that he welcomed the proposal of a small, moderate leftist party for a national unity government.

Earlier, he met Socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos, who has been given a three-day mandate to try to form a government.

Mr Venizelos on Thursday launched a last-ditch attempt to form a coalition government and avert a fresh general election next month that could push the country closer to exiting the euro.

He said he was not optimistic, but "discerned a glimmer of hope" in discussions with Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small leftwing party Democratic Left, who appeared to have softened his previous opposition to co-operating with the socialists and conservatives in government.

Such a three-way coalition could "just possibly" survive until the European parliament elections in mid-2014, "when the country should be on the road to recovery", said one Pasok lawmaker, referring to forecasts by the EU and International Monetary Fund for modest growth that year.

Venizelos is a Liar

For starters Venizelos is a liar. He said he had no interest in forming a government pieced together with barely a majority.

So what changed his mind, and what may change the mind of Fotis Kouvelis?

The answer is easy to explain in form of post-election polls that show soaring support for the Syriza party led by Alexis Tsipras.

Before looking at recent polls, note that Syriza's demands are enough to spread fear into the hearts of every pro-euro clown.

Tsipras' Five Point Proposal

Please consider Tsipras lays out five points of coalition talks

The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.
The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.
The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system.
An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.
The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

However, it's not the proposals that are scary to the Troika and eurocrats, but rather Syriza's poll results two days after the election as disclosed in Athens News show that Tsipras has a chance in carrying those proposal out.

Syriza - 27.7 (128 seats)
New Democracy - 20.3 (57 seats)
Pasok - 12.6 (36 seats)
Independent Greeks - 10.2 (29 seats)
KKE 7 (20 seats)
Golden Dawn 5.7 (16 seats)
Democratic Left 4.9 (14 seats)

Svriza's totals rise every day. By the time elections are held, any coalition might put them in the majority. It's conceivable Syriza would not even need a coalition.

This explains the all-out push by eurocrats and Troika-sponsored clowns to stop another election.

Thus, the "Glimmer of Hope" that Financial Times writer Kerin Hope speaks of is more like a "Glimmer of Despair".

In general, I have no use for socialists. However, if they serve to bring about the exit of Greece from the eurozone they will have done Greece and Europe a huge favor. The sooner the breakup the better.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

duminică, 13 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Colossal Day of Craziness!

Colossal Day of Craziness!

Don't forget!

Seth's Blog : Dedicating the merit

Dedicating the merit

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