luni, 4 iunie 2012

The Definitive Guide to Qualifying a Link Prospect [with Video]

The Definitive Guide to Qualifying a Link Prospect [with Video]


The Definitive Guide to Qualifying a Link Prospect [with Video]

Posted: 03 Jun 2012 02:31 PM PDT

Posted by Adria Saracino

Link builders should look at a website differently than other people.

However, through my years of training new link builders, I found that most struggle with this. If they are new, they have trouble letting go of their "consumer lenses," taking everything at face value and evaluating a site by arbitrary trustworthiness cues.

If it's SEO Consultants trying to do some link building, they are often looking at the architecture and diving deeply into site metrics.

Link builders, on the other hand, should be looking for cues that make a website a good potential partner. They look at metrics like a SEO, but also less tangible cues like engagement and trustworthiness.

I thought I'd share the work I'd already done through years of training and create the definitive guide to qualifying a potential link partner. Hopefully it can be used as both a refresher and a tool for training new hires.

What Am I Talking About Here

I think it's easiest to start with what I'm not talking about. I'm not going through the prospecting process - there are many a guide for that. I'm also not talking about sweet new hacks to scale this through the use of apps, spreadsheets, APIs, etc., though there are some pretty sweet ideas out there and I am all for speeding up the process. While I think efficiency is incredibly important, I think everyone needs to know how to do this stuff manually in order to truly understand how to evaluate a website.

What I am talking about is what to do with a list of prospects once you've found them; the steps to take when you click on the first possible site and need to determine whether or not you will contact them.

Going after every site willy nilly with an equal amount of effort is going to be a serious waste of time and resources. Here's a road map of where I'll be going with this article to help you improve efficiency:

  • Link building metrics
  • Less tangible metrics
  • Bucketing qualified prospects
  • Improving efficiency + a VIDEO DEMO

Link Building Metrics

Will this link pass value, and if so, how much? That's the question we're really trying to figure out with link building metrics. And let's be real, there are A LOT of different metrics that could make a data junkie OD. So how do you filter out the noise?

This is one of the main stumbling blocks for new or occasional link builders. Just the other day during our #AskDistilled video series, the very first question I came across was, "What metrics do you look at to validate potential link partners?"

While all this data is well and fun, it won't make you a great link builder if you spend all day analyzing it. Great link builder = being able to get shit done. If you really want to stand out you need to know how to scale, not spend 10 hours getting one link.

So really, there are only a very few metrics I'd say you need to look at to determine if a prospect is worth going after.

domain authority

This is probably the #1 metric I look at because it will help me determine a prospective site's value for all types of projects. If I'm asking for a guest post or promoting an infographic, the new page this piece of content will be put on won't have metrics like page authority and # of linking root domains. But it will have domain authority.

Yes, there are other nifty metrics like domain MozRank and domain MozTrust, but to get a quick impression of the site's value directly on the SEOmoz toolbar, this is my go to metric. Obviously the higher the better, but if it's higher on a site I don't recognize I'll evaluate it against other less tangible metrics (below) to determine the accuracy of this.

number of unique linking root domains

This is one of the best-correlated Moz metrics because SEOmoz's analysis shows that ULD is well correlated with rankings, so you want to look at this.

Ideally, the site will have a good amount of ULDs to both the page in question and domain. You can get a general sense of how popular that page/domain is to external websites, and more ULDs could mean more  If the number is high, upon first look it may be safe to say that the DA and PA metrics are statistically significant, and thus more likely to stay consistent (if in doubt, I'll look at the backlink profile to see if these ULDs are manipulated).

What do I mean by this? If there are only a few ULDs, and 50% of them decide to remove the link, those metrics could drastically change over time.

page authority

I glance at this when I'm on the home page, but overall I'll ignore this if promoting something for placement on, say, a blog post, since it will be a new page without any PA value yet. For static pages, I'll be really excited if this is a high number and has a good number of ULDs.

Also, it's important to note that if I am doing outreach for placement on a subdomain – such as blog.DOMAIN.com, NAME.blogspot.com, NAME.wordpress.com, and so forth - I will look at the subdomain's PA, since the DA will be pretty irrelevant for these types of targets.

link attributes

By this, I mean link attributes like nofollowed vs. followed. I make sure that all of the nofollowed links are highlighted in the browser I'm using, by doing this on my SEOmoz toolbar:

highlight nofollow link

That way I can spot if all the links on the page are nofollowed. If so, I walk, as the chances of convincing someone to do otherwise are slim. Plus, I think it gets a bit too shady talking about that kind of stuff with potential partners – especially when it is very easy to avoid it otherwise.

As I'm scrolling down the page, I always hover over the links and look at the URL in the bottom left of the browser (clicking through wastes time) to see 1) if the links are to external sites and 2) if so, are they clean URLs or are they redirected or have parameters attached to them (i.e. something that looks like this: http://www.domain.com/landing-page?affid=johndoe&sid=campaign1). Ideally, I'd like clean links in order to get the most out of that site's passable link juice.

# of links on page

If I really want to know, I'll look at the "Page Attributes" tab in the SEOmoz toolbar, but oftentimes I just do a quick visual skim to see how many links are on the page, looking for blog rolls or excessive lists of links on sidebars. The more links, the more any link juice on that page is going to be split among all of them (regardless if they are followed or nofollowed). Thus, I want pages that have less links.

However, a lot of links isn't necessarily a deal breaker, depending on the project goals. What those links say and what they are directing to come into play at that point, which moves us into the less tangible metrics (more below).

Those are pretty much the only hard metrics I look at when qualifying a potential link partner. There are other useful ones, like comparing PageRank vs MozRank to check if the site has been penalized (if PR is a lot lower than mR, this could be a sign of a problem). You can also compare MozRank to MozTrust, to see if the site chases PR (though know why PR isn't a great metric for qualifying a site).

Depending on the circumstances and my gut feeling, I'll start playing around with other metrics if needed, such as viewing the site code for potential iframes (which, when links reside in them, don't pass value), checking the HTTP status code of specific pages, and using OSE to decipher its top pages or analyze its backlinks.

However, like I said, you do not want to waste a ton of time evaluating a site the first time around, only to be ignored when you reach out, or worse, realize you were targeting the completely wrong niche in the first place. Save that type of effort for high value prospects.

Less Tangible Metrics

Will this site owner work with me, and if so, what would be the best-case scenario? Some of the tangible metrics above will help answer this question, but there are other less tangible hints that an epic link builder will learn to pick up on. Here are the ones I find the most important, all of which can really tell you a lot about the site.

domain and URL structure

This will be the first thing you notice, before you even click through to the site. Get in the habit of looking at URLs and what they tell you.

First, does the domain name tell you what the site is about or is it a brand name? Is it highly optimized? Is it so optimized that it doesn't even make sense? There is a difference between www.lawyers.com and www.injury-lawyers-malpractice-law.com. When dealing with highly optimized sites, be on the lookout for ranking manipulation.

I also look at the rest of the URL to see what else it says about the site. If it has any /index.html’s or /p=?’s, I may be dealing with a website that isn't completely SEO savvy, which could be great for outreach purposes. I also, do a quick check to see if the site is canonicalized. If it isn't, it might again mean the site isn't on the top of its architectural game (though note, some big brands have scary URL structure, so this isn't an end-all-be-all metric).

date last updated

This is important for sites that produce consistent content, like blogs or publications. If I notice that the most recent post was six months ago, it most likely means the site was neglected and I can cross it off my list. I think I can count on one hand the number of times I've tried reaching out to a dead site and heard back with a, "Sure, your content is so good it took me out of my writing slump, thanks!"

Pro Tip: If you notice a lot of linking root domains to that page, save it for a backlink analysis later. Reach out to the sites linking to that page and tell them they are linking to a dead site, but you have another resource they might be interested in linking to instead :)

bylines and bios

Again, this is for projects targeting articles and blog posts. Get in the habit of looking for bylines. First, are there any? If so, are they made up of names or generic terms like "staff?" Is it consistently the same name(s)? If yes, then you know whom to contact about editorial content.

Also, if the articles are all hosted on the main page (aka not cut short with a more tag), as you scroll down the page look to see if there are bios. If so, these might very well be contributor pieces. If they are, it is very likely this site will work with you.

engagement cues

These are really important to answering the "what would be the best-case scenario" question. The best-case scenario would be that the website would cover your piece and not only give you a link, but also leverage its community to push your content viral. These types of sites are what I like to call "influencers" and they can really help scale your link building efforts by helping your content essentially generate its own links simply by being put in front of the right eyeballs.

So how do you know if you're looking at an influencer site? Look for clues that show the site has an engaged audience. These include things like:

  • Number of comments
  • Number of social shares
  • Number of RSS feed and newsletter subscribers
  • Number of social media followers

People might ask why I say these are intangible. Well, unless you look at those comments or followers, you don't really know if they are real. Was the subscriber list scraped? Does the site owner accept spam comments? So I bucket this in the intangibles because prospecting isn't about sitting around all day analyzing the nitty gritty, but rather seeing the big picture.

content cues

Another important part to answering the "will they link to me" question is determining if your company or the content you are pitching is relevant to the content the site hosts. Notice that I don’t look at a site’s content until later. This is because you could come across a site with amazing content, but if it has absolutely no valuable metrics you might not want to target it right away.

Looking at the content does not mean you need to spend a ton of time reading the website. Rather try:

  • Reading titles – article titles can tell you not only what the content is about, but the "voice" of the website (are they news headlines or are they bold statements with sometimes vulgar language?).
  • Using the search feature – If I'm really unsure or think it's a stretch, I'll do a quick keyword search across the site to see if there is any reference to the topic. If so, this gives me great positioning power when contacting them because it lets them know that I know they cover this type of content.
  • About page – If I am still in doubt, I'll take a quick gander at the site's about page to figure out the mission statement and see if my content fits. But really, this is a last resort and if I have to work this hard to make it work, I need to determine if it's worth the effort.

navigation & footer links

Get in the habit of quickly glancing at navigation and footer links for clues like "contributors," "write for us," or "guest posts." If they have a page dedicated to getting content already, boom, there is my in for contacting them.

Also, while you're busy browsing links, look for any red flag keywords that look like sponsored links with questionable anchor text (loans, Viagra, poker, etc.). These aren't generally desirable, so if it's bad enough I'll walk away.

trustworthiness

After looking at all of these metrics, I usually have a pretty good gut feeling of whether or not I should trust this site. If I'm still not sure and the site is of particular high value, I might use an outbound link checker to see if it's linking to any questionable sites. I may also look at its backlink profile to see if the majority of links coming in are from directories or pages titled "Free Link Exchange."

Note, design can be somewhat arbitrary of a spam test because, in my experience, there are a lot of websites out there run by old men just doing it for fun, so they use templates to get some visibility in the online world. So don't always judge a book by its cover.

If you're still stumped, here are some questions to ask yourself:

  • Taking a cue from Panda, would I trust giving my credit card information to this site?
  • Does this site offer good content? Is it of value to visitors?
  • What percentage of its site is taken up by AdSense or external links?
  • Does the content look like unique content, or is the site a syndication farm that scrapes articles from around the Internet?
  • What types of content/links are on this site? Are there red flag keywords? Are the external links related to the site content?
  • Does the content seem suspiciously optimized?
  • Is the site transparent? Is there an about or contact section?

Transparency is a huge one for me. When there is no contact information and no about section, it can mean the site owner doesn’t really care about offering good content and connecting with readers, but rather is using this site for SEO or advertising purposes.

I do want to note that a lot of AdSense and external links aren’t necessarily bad. It is only a piece of the puzzle. I think the content and types of external links are more important, but sometimes a lot of AdSense can be an obvious indicator that a site owner is trying to drive traffic to the site in order to make money from click throughs.

Bucketing Qualified Prospects

As you're going through your prospects, you'll start making a long list of sites to contact. How do you prioritize these? If you think you don't need to, you are wrong. Bucketing your prospects is really important so you can determine how long you should spend on trying to convert them and in which order you should reach out. Not all prospects are created equally so you should not be treating them the same.

You don't need to be really formal about this, bucketing them into separate lists or labeling them obsessively. But you definitely can if it helps. I've found that I have a pretty good memory and just know with a few quick sorts in Excel, but if this isn't you find a system of organization that works best for you.

Here are the variables I tend to use for determining buckets:

  1. DA
  2. Influencer status
  3. Potential difficulty of getting a link
  4. Past relationship?
  5. First access play?

That's pretty much it. All of the other metrics told me that the site was worth being on the list, but these are the ones needed to organize them. These are the buckets I use and what defines them (I know, ingenious titles):

High Value

Sites with a high DA (anywhere from 65+ depending on the project), extreme influencer power (will help my content go viral), and likely difficult to get a link on. Why the last metric? Because sites that are high enough value are worth the chase, and this metric will help determine how long you should wait before letting go.

Medium Value

Sites with a DA around 50 – 65, has some influencer status (might get a handful of comments and shares), and probably reasonably easy to get a link.

Low Value

DA below 45, barely any influencer status, easy to get a link on – probably has cues like "write for us" on site.

So what do I do with these buckets? I prioritize using the last two metrics from the above list that I didn't mention yet. First access play helps figure out when to contact a prospect, and this is reserved for high value contacts. Why would you give a site with mediocre metrics first access to something? This is oftentimes effective on journalists, who are always hungry to break a story.

The past relationship point also helps determine when you will contact a prospect. I usually give my existing contacts the courtesy of first dibs once a piece goes live not only out of respect, but also because the turnaround time will probably be quick and allow me to start raking in the wins. Plus, these contact attempts will be easiest because you don't need to butter them up, so get these out of the way.

So what order do I do outreach in once I have my prospects in buckets?

flowchart for outreach during link building

Why the back and forth? Because I never do outreach in a linear fashion. You could reach out to all your prospects in a particular bucket only to find out your contact approach was a fail. Link builders need to think on their feet and do some informal A/B testing to figure out what will work, because you can never 100% guarantee what responses will be like for outreach. So my advice would be not to put all your eggs in one basket, but do outreach in chunks and adjust if the approach doesn't work.

Improving Efficiency

This was a long article. I know. But just because it was long does not mean this process needs to take forever – but it will at first. Every new link builder gets caught up qualifying sites, and they will keep doing it until they gain the confidence to breeze through it. This comes with practice, so whether you are new yourself or hiring, please keep this in mind and adjust your expectations accordingly.

Practice of course will improve speed. When looking at a site for all of the above metrics and clues, I take a minute or less. The only time it takes longer is when I am looking for a high value target's contact details. The qualifying process – being able to say "yes" or "no" to adding them to your list – should become second nature to you; so much that you no longer look at websites the same ever again, even as a consumer.

To review, let me give you a quick video of what I look at when I am qualifying a potential prospect, putting all of these metrics into practice.

My advice for becoming a speedier and more efficient link builder in general is:

  • Be hyper organized – whether you use a tool like Buzzstream or spreadsheets, you need to stay on top of your game and be detailed so you don't have to keep going back to the site to remember why you put it on your list in the first place. You should be able to put it on your list and not have to go back to the website when you contact them. Here is an example of the information I collect on spreadsheets when prospecting:

prospecting organization example

You'll see I have a dropdown list in place to explain the relationship stage. I color code these so when I have a long list and sort them, I can quickly browse. Flag date refers to the next time I want to remember to contact them. Notes is where I like to keep detailed information so I do not have to go back to the site before contacting.

  • Have an efficient workflow – I prospect, outreach, repeat in chunks. I rarely do all my prospecting and then all my outreach because you could be targeting a niche that will fail or burn yourself out. Similarly, I don't prospect one site, contact it, prospect, repeat. Reaching out one by one is difficult to scale and speed through, so focus on one task and ship it, rather than waffling back and forth.

After qualifying your prospects, you're ready to craft a pitch and contact the appropriate person for each site. Hopefully this will help qualifying become second nature, allowing you to speed through the process and focus on what really matters – building relationships and getting conversions.


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Ask the Press Secretary

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Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, June 4, 2012

 

Ask the Press Secretary

You’ve probably seen White House Press Secretary Jay Carney take questions from the press in the Brady Briefing Room here at the White House. With "First Question," we’re inviting Americans to ask their questions online for Jay to answer.

Ask your questions on Twitter starting now with the hashtag #1q, and follow Jay Carney @PressSec. Make sure to check back at 1:45 p.m. EDT, when Jay will answer your questions using his Twitter account.

Follow @PressSec and ask your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #1q.

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama greets members of the audience following his remarks at the Honeywell Golden Valley Facility in Golden Valley, Minn., June 1, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Barack Obama greets members of the audience following his remarks at the Honeywell Golden Valley Facility in Golden Valley, Minn., June 1, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Women Entrepreneurs Are Creating Jobs: An Interactive Timeline
American companies have added more than 4.3 million jobs over the past 27 months. Behind that number are countless small businesses – entrepreneurs with bold ideas and a willingness to dream big -- meet some of them using this interactive tool.

Equal Pay for Equal Work?
When women, who make up nearly half the workforce, bring home less money each day, it means they have less for the everyday needs of their families, and over a lifetime of work, far less savings for retirement.

Preparing for this Year’s Hurricane Season
Friday marked the start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Under the direction of President Obama, FEMA and DHS stand ready to support our state and local partners as the tropics start to produce their annual cyclones, storms, and hurricanes.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

9:45 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

3:25 PM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

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Seth's Blog : Winning today (vs. winning tomorrow)

Winning today (vs. winning tomorrow)

Look around. You're not number one on that bestseller list, or chosen for this RFP or invited to give that talk.

It's frustrating. There are engagements you ought to have, sales you ought to be making, clients that ought to understand you...

One choice is to spend today frustrated that you're not winning with the product you have for the market you've chosen.

The other choice is to focus on what you need to do today to win tomorrow.



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duminică, 3 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Greek Poling Ban In Effect Until Election; Latest Results Show SYRIZA Support at 31.5 percent, Well in the Lead Over New Democracy; Why I expect Syriza to Win

Posted: 03 Jun 2012 05:05 PM PDT

The preponderance of recent Greek polls show a tight election. However, the latest Public Issue Survey stands out, and I happen to think that is the most accurate one.

Please consider Going into final stretch, SYRIZA builds poll lead
In the last opinion poll to be published by Kathimerini before the June 17 elections, leftist SYRIZA maintains a clear lead over New Democracy, although short of enough support for a clear parliamentary majority.

According to the Public Issue survey, SYRIZA garners 31.5 percent of the vote, 1.5 more than just a week ago. Support for New Democracy is largely unchanged at 25.5. PASOK has lost 2 percent and falls to 13.5. It is followed by Democratic Left (DIMAR) on 7.5 percent and the weakening Independent Greeks on 5.5. The Communist Party (KKE) also has 5.5 percent, while the neo-Nazi Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) has fallen to 4.5 percent. The liberal alliance of Dimiourgia Xana (Recreate Greece) and Drasi attracts 2.5 percent.

In terms of parliamentary seats, this translates into 134 for SYRIZA, 68 for New Democracy, 36 for PASOK, 20 for DIMAR, 15 for KKE, 15 for Independent Greeks and 12 for Chrysi Avgi. Most would fall slightly if the liberals reach the 3 percent parliamentary threshold.

Most Greeks, however, are not convinced that SYRIZA will win. The poll indicates that 58 percent believes ND will come first and only 34 percent see the leftists triumphing.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said that the Washington-based fund is willing to listen to "any new ideas" that the next Greek government has with respect to how the fiscal targets agreed as part of the bailout can be achieved more effectively.

Rice also said IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, regretted recent remarks concerning tax evasion by Greeks and comparing their suffering to children in Niger. "She regrets her remarks were misunderstood and caused offense, that was not her intention."
What's Lagarde's Game?

In Harsh Language from Lagarde: "IMF Has No Intention of Softening Terms"; From Head of Deutsche Bank: "Greece is a Failed Corrupt State" I expressed the viewpoint that remarks by Lagarde and Deutsche Bank were "purposefully Inflammatory".

I see no reason to change my mind about the statements made by Deutsche Bank. Is the apology by Lagarde an admission of a huge gaffe? Possibly but take a look at the statement once again.

In an uncompromising interview with the Guardian, Lagarde made it clear that the IMF has no intention of softening the terms of the country's austerity package.
Asked whether she is able to block out of her mind the mothers unable to get access to midwives or patients unable to obtain life-saving drugs, Lagarde replies: "I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens."

"I think they should also help themselves collectively." Asked how, she replies: "By all paying their tax."
Those statements are clearly quite inflammatory. Regardless of her intention, I strongly believe those statements will swing votes to Syriza.

Numbers Add Up for Syriza? 

Kathimerini has additional details on the latest polls in Are the numbers starting to add up for SYRIZA?
For all the fluctuations polls showed in the support for SYRIZA and ND, PASOK has remained anchored to its feeble showing on May 6. The Socialists have hardly moved from around 13 percent and seem unable to convince their former supporters to return to the fold. In contrast, Democratic Left shows a modest rise, but this has not come at the expense of SYRIZA. There has been a drastic fall in the number of people intending to vote for parties that won't get into Parliament. If SYRIZA and Democratic Left are drawing support from this pool and not from each other, then Tsipras's party doesn't face a strong threat from the left side of the political spectrum.

The Public Issue poll indicates that SYRIZA is fishing support from an even larger tank. Over the last few months, a growing proportion of Greeks has positioned itself on the left wing of Greek politics. According to the latest survey, half of those questioned said they identified with the left. This was up from 39 percent just over a month earlier. Those identifying with the right, however, are at 28 percent, which has remained virtually unchanged for the last six weeks.

This presents a serious problem for New Democracy. These numbers suggest its potential appeal has a much lower ceiling than SYRIZA and that it has almost reached it. The conservatives have tried to pull out all the stops to build on the slim lead of 2 percent they had over the leftists on May 6. This included welcoming back Dora Bakoyannis, who suspended the operation of her Democratic Alliance party, and several members of the Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) and Independent Greeks, all of which had been a drain on ND's support. However, now that's been done, ND leader Antonis Samaras has nowhere else to turn to generate support. He's brought in the reinforcements but still seems outnumbered by Tsipras's amassing troops.

The last vestige of hope for Samaras has been to polarize the campaign, to turn it into an all-out battle between the responsible conservatives who would keep Greece on an even keel and in the euro and the reckless leftists who dream impossible schemes that would ensure the return of the drachma and deep misery. So far, the euro-vs-drachma dilemma has had only limited appeal and time is running out for Samaras to state his case convincingly.

The presentation of his party's economic program on Thursday lacked the pomp and circumstance of previous addresses at Zappeio Hall but, more crucially, seemed to carry little weight. Media interest was scant and the ideas presented were tired. It had the air of an inconsequential conference, where everyone was staring at the clock for the last speaker of the day to finish. Compare this with the heightened expectation for Tsipras's address on Friday, and the SYRIZA leader seemed like the guy with all the momentum. Brighter and fresher, he even got his audience of their seats a couple of times. Maybe the body language and aura meant very little but one imagines the conservatives would have gladly swapped places with the leftists at this stage of the campaign.

One encouraging sign for the conservatives could be that almost twice as many Greeks think that ND will win the elections as those who believe SYRIZA will come first. The leftists want to break with the past but they have to conquer it first by making people believe a SYRIZA-led government is possible and viable. It may be the only thing left standing between them and what until recently was an election result nobody could have predicted.
New York Times Has Different Results

The New York Times reports matters much differently in UPDATE: Greek Conservatives Lead In Three Final Polls Before Vote
Greece's conservative New Democracy Party led the radical left Syriza Party in three polls released Friday, the last to be published before crucial June 17 elections that are widely seen as a de facto referendum on the country's future inside the euro zone.

According to a survey of voter intentions for the privately owned ANT1 channel released late Friday, New Democracy had a razor-thin 0.7 percentage point lead over Syriza, with 22.7% favoring the conservatives and 22% favoring the radical leftists.

A survey released earlier Friday in the newspaper Ta Nea showed 26.1% of respondents intend to vote for New Democracy, up from 25.8% in the previous poll just over a week ago, versus 23.6% who said they would vote for Syriza. The poll, conducted by Kapa Research between May 29-31, showed an increase in undecided voters, with those yet to make a final decision rising to 14% from 10.8%.

The Socialist party, Pasok come in third place, with 9.9%. The survey showed the Communists, Independent Greeks, Democratic Left and the ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn all set to gain more than the 3% support required to return lawmakers to parliament.

Another poll published in the newspaper Eleftheros Typos also showed New Democracy ahead, backed by 26.5% of respondents versus 24.2% who supported Syriza.

The three polls confirm a broad trend shown by more than half-a-dozen similar surveys in the last week that give the conservatives a slight advantage. But in each poll the difference separating the two parties is less than three percentage points and within the statistical margin of error. That suggests the race remains too close to call.

In last month's elections, Syriza was catapulted from a small fringe party with about 5% of the vote into a surprise second-place finisher.

A fourth survey published Friday in the newspaper Kathimerini adjusts the results for undecided voters. It shows Syriza ahead, gathering 31.5% of the vote versus 25.5% for New Democracy.
Throw the Bums Out

European voters have an overwhelming tendency to throw the bums out.

  • Nicolas Sarkozy a centrist went down in flames to Socialist Hollande in the French presidetial election. 
  • Socialists were thrown out en masse in the last elections in Spain. 
  • In spite of German chancellor Angela Merkel's popularity, her party, the Christian Democratic Union, has been trounced in recent election in Germany.


Expect Syriza to Win

Take the tendency to blame the party in power along with the fact that New Democracy and Pasok have been ruling Greece for years, then add in the exceptionally inflammatory remarks by Lagarde, and one should expect Syriza to be in the lead.

I rate Syriza a 2-1 favorite to win the election with a similar chance of actually forming a coalition government if they do.

If so, Greece will default on payments to the Troika, and funds to Greece will be shut off.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Another Meaningless Nannycrat Rumor: Europe Mulls "Secret Plan for New Europe"

Posted: 03 Jun 2012 11:45 AM PDT

A story is making the rounds that suggests leaders are going to get together and hammer out a "fiscal union".

The story appears to have originated on the Welt Online, a German tabloid. The article mentions a Secret Plan for a New Europe.
EU institutions should design the master plan

At their informal meeting on 23 May had given the leaders a work order to the EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, on the Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker and the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi.

The four are to design a roadmap "for the EU to a new level" can be lifted. "Three or four conversations," President of the round was planned in the coming weeks, there will be conference calls, the institutions were in close contact.

Van Rompuy will present key elements of the plan at the summit in late June. They should be included in the final declaration. By the end of the year, the Heads of State and Government of the "roadmap" and decide then officially in black and white. It could be a revolutionary document.
More Holes Than Swiss Cheese

One look at the nannycrat participants led by Van Rompuy and Jean-Claude "lie when it's serious" Juncker, is all you need to do to know the plan has far more holes than Swiss Lorraine cheese.

I would have thought that no one could possibly take this seriously, even if such a meeting were agreed to.

Note that the Financial Times, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal did not bite on this story, but Libre Mercado came out with its version: The German 'Die Welt' reveals a "Secret Plan for a New Europe".

El Economista says EU, ECB and Eurogroup working on a comprehensive plan for a new Europe.

Rumor Spreads

To show you how rumors spread, Reuters has picked up on this silly story in Europe mulls major step towards "fiscal union"
After falling short with her "fiscal compact" on budget discipline, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pressing for much more ambitious measures, including a central authority to manage euro area finances, and major new powers for the European Commission, European Parliament and European Court of Justice.

The goal is for EU leaders to agree to develop a road map to "fiscal union" at a June 28-29 EU summit, where top European officials including European Council President Herman Van Rompuy will present a set of initial proposals.

European countries would then put the meat on the bones of the plan in the second half of 2012, several European sources have told Reuters, including a timetable for overhauling EU treaties, a step Berlin sees as vital for setting closer integration in stone.
Nothing But Hot Air

The "meat on the bones will come in the second half of 2012". The plan is "so secret" that no one has any details now other than an alleged proposal to agree to agree sometime down the road.

This is what it boils down to: The secret plan is to develop a secret plan at the already scheduled June summit.  Yeah right.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans; Bondholder Mediation Underway

Posted: 03 Jun 2012 08:16 AM PDT

Add Stockton, California (population 292,000) to the list of cities bankrupted because of bad management and over-generous public union wages and benefits.

Please consider New Stockton City Hall building seized by Wells Fargo; city preps bankruptcy contingency plan
The Stockton City Council announced Wednesday that they will look at bankruptcy contingency plans after Wells Fargo seized the new city hall building.

The city paid $35 million to buy the 8-story building, but was not able to move in because of its money problems, and recently stopped making debt payments all together. This is the fourth building that was repossessed by Wells Fargo; the bank seized three city parking garages for the same reason.

At the June 5 Stockton City Council meeting, members will look at a contingency plan if mediation between the city and creditors failed, city spokesperson Connie Cochran said. For the past two months, the city, under AB 506, has been in a mediation process with creditors to come up with a payment plan in order to avoid bankruptcy.


Incompetent City Management and Unions to Blame

The firefighters' union put together a list of 10 wasteful things the city has done wrong totally about $116 million, including $48 million for the new city hall.

$417 Million Healthcare Liability

The union does not tell you that Stockton has a $417 million liability for its "pay-as-you go retiree health care system"

And that's just healthcare. What about pensions and untenable salaries?

So who is more to blame here?

Bondholder Mediation

Mediation with bondholders and unions is now underway, the outcome of which will determine whether or not the city files for bankruptcy.

Recordnet reports Wealth of interest in Stockton mediation
Wall Street lawyers are likely taking the hardest line in mediation with Stockton, waiting for the closed-door talks to play out with their arms folded, but seated at the table.

"It's one thing to be forced by a court to give up your rights," said Matt Fabian, a bond analyst at Municipal Market Advisers in Connecticut. "It's another thing to give them up willingly."

Stockton entered mediation March 27, and it agreed with its creditors and labor groups to continue until June 25. Mediation is the last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy.

The conversation in mediation starts with Stockton's general fund deficit of $26 million, a fourth multimillion dollar shortfall year. The city must chip away at that figure with an eye on restructuring its obligations and forecasted deficits for years to come.

These are Stockton's major obligations next year, absent any concessions:

Bondholders will get $13 million, an amount that has increased 600 percent in four years. Payments have ballooned just like homeowners who took adjustable-rate mortgages;

Stockton must fund its pay-as-you go retiree health care system at $9 million annually, something City Manager Bob Deis has compared to a Ponzi scheme. To begin funding this $417 million liability, the city would have to put aside $18 million next year;

A few things are known about mediation. There are 18 parties involved, and they are represented by 100 attorneys and accountants combing Stockton's finances.

They are the city's labor groups, retired city employees, CalPERS, Wall Street investors, Wells Fargo Bank and insurers responsible for paying bond holders if and when Stockton defaults.
My Take?

The best course of action for the city is to seek bankruptcy. The city is indeed clearly bankrupt so there is no point in delaying. Delays will only serve the bondholders at taxpayer expense.

In bankruptcy court, the city should win the right to unilaterally modify the pension and healthcare agreements made with public union workers as well as terminate all collective bargaining rights. 50% or even 75% haircuts on pension and healthcare plans may be necessary. So be it.

Bondholders must also take a hit. I suggest 100% on the new city hall (minus whatever it can recover from the seized building). Wells Fargo deserves to be punished for being stupid enough to lend Stockton money.

Inquirung minds should also consider City Council of North Las Vegas Unanimously Suspends Collectively Bargaining of Public Unions, Citing Emergency Statutes.

If Stockton files bankruptcy it will be the largest city in the US to seek  Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. Don't worry, that record will fall soon enough. LA and Oakland cannot be that far behind.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Seth's Blog : The Milgram extension

The Milgram extension

In his famous experiment, Stanley Milgram gave his subjects a switch and then encouraged them to give (fake) electric shocks to his confederates if they were slow to follow instructions.

The internet has become a giant version of this, except the shocks are real.

You give people a switch and they can shock you whenever they choose, disrupt your day, cloud your horizons and generally make you feel like a failure.

Of course, that switch has always been given to certain members of your family or co-workers or teachers. But now, thanks to the ability of a total stranger to dump his anxiety or anger on you, the switch is easily handed to hundreds or thousands of people.

Extending the circle of people who are able to zap you is human nature. It's easy to do and tempting, too (because it feels as though you're gaining the ability to have others approve of you). On balance, my guess is that a large number of strangers holding on to electric shock buttons is a dangerous situation. But it's up to you.



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