marți, 5 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

France, Italy, Spain Services PMI Show Continued Sharp Decreases; Eurozone Composite PMI Near 3-Year Low; Germany Services PMI at 6-Month Low
Gaming the Odds of a Greek Euro Exit With and Without Contagion
Oil Tanker Rates Lowest Since 1997 as Demand in Europe Plunges to 1996 Level, Production in US at 13-Year High; IMF Smoking Happy Dope

France, Italy, Spain Services PMI Show Continued Sharp Decreases; Eurozone Composite PMI Near 3-Year Low; Germany Services PMI at 6-Month Low

Posted: 05 Jun 2012 06:57 PM PDT

The Markit PMI data from Europe shows still more deterioration led by France, Italy, and Spain. Let's take a look at a few countries.

France: Business Activity Continues Contraction at Marked Pace

Key points:

Final Markit France Services Activity Index at 45.1 (45.2 in April), 7-month low.

Final Markit France Composite Output Index at 44.6 (45.9 in April), 37-month low.

Summary: French service providers registered another sharp decrease in business activity during May. Underlying the weak performance was a second successive fall in incoming new business, while backlogs of work fell further. Companies responded by cutting employment. Input price inflation eased to the slowest for over two years, allowing companies to reduce their charges further.

Italy: Services Activity Continues Contraction at Sharp Rate in May

Key Points:

Business activity and new work both decrease markedly

Employment falls at slowest rate for seven months

Cost inflation weakest since last November

Summary:

The health of the Italian service sector deteriorated during May, with steep falls in both output and new business recorded. Confidence with regards to activity in the forthcoming year dipped further, though employment levels fell at a slower rate. Cost inflation meanwhile eased to the weakest in six months, but still contrasted with a sustained drop in output prices.

Spain: Activity and new business both decline at faster rates

Key points:

Activity and new business both decline at faster rates

Job shedding intensifies

Sharp cuts in output prices as cost inflation eases

Summary:

The Spanish service sector fell further into contractionary territory during May as the economic crisis showed no signs of easing. Rates of decline in activity, new orders and employment all accelerated during the month. Meanwhile, input prices rose only slightly as companies attempted to reduce costs, and output prices were cut sharply again in response to strong competition and weak demand.

Germany: German Composite Output Index in Contraction

Key points:

Final Germany Services Business Activity Index(1) at 51.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April.

Final Germany Composite Output Index(2) at 49.3 in May, down from 50.5 in April.

Summary:

May data pointed to a renewed slowdown in German service sector growth, as falling levels of incoming new work continued to weigh on business activity levels. At 51.8, down from 52.2 in April, the final seasonally adjusted Germany Services Business Activity Index pointed to the slowest pace of expansion since November 2011. Higher levels of output have now been recorded for eight months running, but the pace of expansion in May was below the average seen since the survey began 15 years ago (53.0).

Eurozone: Composite PMI near-three year low in May

Key Points:

Final Eurozone Composite Output Index: 46.0 (Flash 45.9, April 46.7)

Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 46.7 (Flash 46.5, April 46.9)

Widespread weakness across the currency union, with output falling across the big-four nations

Summary:

At 46.0 in May, down from 46.7 in April, the Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index signalled the steepest rate of decline in manufacturing and services output in the single currency area since June 2009. The headline index came in slightly above its flash estimate of 45.9, but remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourth month running.

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: "The final Eurozone PMI edged up on the flash reading in May, but nevertheless indicates that the economy is contracting at the fastest pace for around three years. Companies report business activity to have been hit by heightened political and economic uncertainty, which has exacerbated already weak demand both in the euro area and further afield. Based on these numbers, it would not be surprising to see GDP for the region contract by 0.5% in the second quarter, though an even steeper decline could be seen if the June data disappoint."

If the ECB is looking for an excuse to cut rates, it sure has one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Gaming the Odds of a Greek Euro Exit With and Without Contagion

Posted: 05 Jun 2012 01:54 PM PDT

A key question on trader's minds is who will win the June 17th Greece election and whether it results in a Greek exit of the eurozone.

Deutsche Bank gives it assessment in a report called Probability weighting EUR views on Greece

Under a variety of assumptions, the market pricing looks consistent with: a) significant odds in favor of Greece remaining part of the EUR zone and EUR/USD trading between 1.25 and 1.30; and, b) a worst case Greek exit global contagion scenario taking EUR/USD to 1.10, but not to levels as low as parity.

After the Greek elections, there are 6 main scenarios that are worth considering:

A EUR friendly coalition probably led by New Democracy (ND) that does enough to keep Greece in the EUR.

A EUR friendly coalition probably led by ND that still leads to a Greek exit, but not a major global contagion event.

A EUR friendly coalition probably led by ND that still leads to a Greek exit (probably with a delay) because Greece fails to comply with the Troika program and this ends up in a major global contagion event

An anti-austerity led government, probably led by Syriza, that nonetheless compromises sufficiently, that Greece remains in the EUR at least through 2012.

An anti-austerity led government, that ends with Greece leaving the EUR but where contagion is relatively well contained.

An anti-austerity led government, that ends with Greece leaving the EUR which becomes a major global contagion event.

Deutsche Bank Probability Chart

click on chart for sharper image

Odds Not 50-50

Deutsche Bank thinks the probability that New Democracy or Syriza wins is equal, 50% each.

I think the odds Syriza wins is about a 2-1 favorite as explained in Greek Polling Ban In Effect Until Election; Latest Results Show SYRIZA Support at 31.5 percent, Well in the Lead Over New Democracy; Why I expect Syriza to Win

For an update, please see "Terror-Mongering" in Greece About to Backfire? Will Greeks Vote for "Complete Idiots"? Four Possibilities

Note that Deutsche Bank thinks that even if Syriza does win, Greece is as likely to remain in the eurozone as not. That strikes me as being far too optimistic. Even if Syriza stays in for a while, it will eventually run out of money.

Contagion Scenarios

Finally, please note that the Deutsche Bank contagion scenarios total a mere 28%.

What does "contagion" even mean? As I have explained before, Spain has problems of its own making not related to Greece at all.

Spain is not going to exit the eurozone solely or even significantly because of Greece.

True Contagion

The true contagion scenario is not what people think but rather the reverse. Greece exits the eurozone, recovers, and other countries decide to do the same.

In the context of the Deutsche Bank article, I fully expect Spain to exit the eurozone. Is that contagion? It depends on why and how you define the word.

Finally, even if New Democracy wins, the odds of a Greek exit do not drop to a mere 5% as the above table shows. I would say they are still 50% minimum and depending on your timeframe as high as 85%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Oil Tanker Rates Lowest Since 1997 as Demand in Europe Plunges to 1996 Level, Production in US at 13-Year High; IMF Smoking Happy Dope

Posted: 05 Jun 2012 09:26 AM PDT

Bloomberg reports Oil Tankers Squeezed as Rates Drop to Lowest Since '97.

Aframaxes, already this year's worst- performing oil tankers, are poised for the lowest annual rates in at least 15 years as Europe's economic stagnation curbs demand, the region's most-accurate shipping analysts said.

The 800-foot vessels will make about $12,000 a day in 2012, the least since 1997, said Anders Karlsen, an analyst at Nordea Markets in Oslo. His recommendations on the industry returned 25 percent in the past year, more than any shipping analyst in Europe tracked by Bloomberg.

The vessels are struggling to win cargoes on all sides of the Atlantic, with European oil demand contracting for a sixth year at a time when the U.S. push for energy independence is driving down crude imports to the lowest since 1999. That's drawing more South American and West African supply to Asia on routes favoring very large crude carriers, displacing smaller Suezmaxes which in turn are competing with Aframaxes.

"With the situation in Europe, the picture for Aframaxes is just abysmal," said Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an Oslo-based analyst at Arctic Securities ASA who anticipates an annual average of $10,000. "VLCCs are taking out Suezmaxes, and Suezmaxes are taking out Aframaxes," said Stavseth, whose recommendations returned 24 percent in the past year, the second-best performance in the region.

European oil demand will decline 2 percent to 14.7 million barrels a day this year, the lowest since at least 1996, the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates. The region's refineries are shutting at the fastest pace in three decades as economies stagnate or contract and competition from U.S. rivals using cheaper grades of crude intensifies. Aframaxes get 48 percent of their cargoes from Europe, Clarkson estimates.

The U.S. is producing the most crude in 13 years after prices rose almost fourfold in a decade, Energy Department data show. Companies were drilling 2,329 wells last month, the most in a quarter century, the data show. Aframaxes rely on North America for about 14 percent of their cargoes, the same order of magnitude by which imports carried on the vessels will fall this year, according to Clarkson.

The slump in European demand may reverse as its economies strengthen, with the International Monetary Fund predicting 2013 growth of 0.9 percent in the 17-nation euro zone, from a 0.3 percent drop in 2012.

Comments From Tim Wallace

Reader Tim Wallace says ...

Hello Mish

EU demand is dropping along the same lines as USA, six consecutive years of decline, now equal to 1996 levels. USA oil consumption is at 1998 levels.

How can anyone not see the global economy never recovered from 2008? Only government debt spending has kept the economy from the abyss. As you know that is nothing but a misguided can-kicking exercise.

IMF Smoking Happy Dope

To that I would add the IMF is smoking "happy dope" to believe the eurozone will contract a mere .3% in 2012 and expand at .9% in 2013.

Moreover, the US economy is clearly slowing rapidly and is likely in recession right now.

I will have the latest US 3-month oil usage charts from Tim Wallace shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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I take pictures with my hands

I made this myself. What do you think? :)

Seth's Blog : The Dip, revisited, plus audio bonus

The Dip, revisited, plus audio bonus

Five years ago, I published a little book (little even by my standards) called The Dip.

I did a tour, built a small blog and shared what I could about it. It was a very risky book—certainly not for everyone.

Much to the surprise of some at my publishing house, it sold a ton of copies, entirely due to word of mouth.

The book makes a lot of people uncomfortable. Instead of giving a clear, actionable, step-by-step approach to guaranteed success, The Dip points out where we often get stuck, and leaves it to the reader to take the (difficult) steps necessary to move ahead.

It also talked about the short head (in contrast to Chris Anderson's not yet written Long Tail). There's a short head in every micro market, just waiting for someone to fill it.

Just yesterday, the rule of the Dip was demonstrated by Microsoft's overdue cancellation of the Zune, something that should have happened years ago.

As the web becomes every more relentless in separating the average from the exceptional, the simple idea this book uncovers (being the best in the world at your little niche) becomes ever more important.

This week, I got a bunch of mail about the book, and it prompted me to remind you that you might want to (re)read it. Jared wrote (italics mine):

It literally speaks to my heart and convinces me of changes I need to make in my life. I need to quit a bunch of stuff, and try to be the best.

I have a confession to make. This is my second time reading this book, and the first time I thought it was pretty basic and kind of stupid. But I decided to read it again (4 years later) and it is exactly what I need at this point in my life. I absolutely love it.

...

Anyways, I just want to say thank you for pushing through the dip.

And then, the next day, this graph showed up from Dan in Norway:

The red dot indicates the day he read the book. I'm not sure what this measures, but it looks good.

I hope the book resonates for you as well. Because it's not a brand new book, you can find used copies for less than $3. And a freebie...listen to the first 10% on audio:

The Dip, first sections

• Email to a friend •

Don't Like Snake Oil? Stop Buying It!

Posted: 04 Jun 2012 01:46 PM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

Every few months, some mainstream news outlet runs a piece on how SEOs are just a bunch of “snake oil” salesmen. The implication is clear – we’re the carnival barkers of marketing, promising you #1 on Google and bottling moonshine as magic potions. Cue outraged SEO industry posts until we’re out of breath, wait 6 months, then repeat.

Here’s the simple truth the angry back-and-forth arguments ignore – there would be no snake-oil salesmen if people weren’t lining up to buy it. I’m not here to excuse thieves and liars – they exist, and they should be called out. I’m here to tell you why you need to open your eyes and stop gleefully walking into the same trap over and over.

Why We’re All to Blame

This topic can get emotional fast, so let’s step back for a minute and consider another example in the technology industry. Lately, there’s been a lot of outrage about poor human rights conditions in consumer products’ factories, most notably Apple’s problems with workers at the Foxconn factory in China. One side is quick to defend Capitalism, while the other side rushes to blame corporate greed.

Both sides may be right, to some degree, and I’m not here to argue the veracity of the claims. The deeper, more interesting question is: what drives it all? Are corporations and shareholders looking to squeeze out profits? Sure, to some extent. What about us, though? We want a $600 computer that fits in the palm of our hand, plays movies in HD, takes video of our cats, and connects instantly to all of human knowledge. One month after we have it, we want it to be 10% lighter, 10% faster, make our cat look 10% fluffier, and cost $549. So, where did the greed really start?

Yes, “All” Includes You

Sorry, but you need to hear this. When you interview an SEO company, have wild expectations, only hear what you want to, demand results “by any means necessary,” and want it all for just $99.95, then what do you expect is going to happen? You’re going to attract thieves and liars, and you’re going to deserve it.

Ok, rant over. This isn’t about being holier-than-thou and I’m not just here to scold you. I sincerely want people to stop selling and buying snake oil. So, here are six tips to keep you from wasting your money on magic beans...

(1) Educate Yourself

I know what you’ll say – “I don’t have time, and SEO is complicated.” Guess what – that’s exactly what the snake-oil salesmen want you to believe. They may even say it out loud during your first meeting. Modern online marketing is complicated and covers a lot of ground, but you don’t have to know everything. Invest a couple of weeks in learning just enough of the basics so that you can ask the right questions. While I was writing this post, we re-launched The Beginner’s Guide to SEO – that’s a great place to start.

It’s not just about SEO, though – educate yourself about the company you’ll be working with. Is their reputation good? Do they even have a reputation? Do they have a website (I hope so, but you’d be surprised)? How long have they been around? It’s amazing how people will spend hours deciding whether or not to see a $10 movie or research where to get a donut but then will walk into a meeting and spend $10,000 with no information at all.

(2) Trust Your Instincts

We all feel pressure – time pressure, budget pressure, angry boss pressure, and just the pressure of fatigue and wanting to move things forward. When that pressure kicks in, we ignore our gut. We walk into a room and instantly have a bad feeling or just plain dislike the people we’re talking to after 5 minutes, but we shake it off because we want the ball to keep rolling. Don’t ignore your instincts – almost every time I’ve had a bad feeling about a prospective vendor or client and brushed it off, I’ve regretted it. There’s always another vendor, and the sunk cost of a couple of hours of meetings is nothing compared to what you’ll lose if you pay for 6 months of bad SEO.

(3) Roll to Disbelieve

Sorry, nerd joke. If it looks too good to be true and it sounds too good to be true, then it’s probably a duck. Look at all of the recent Ponzi schemes where people were getting a 178% return rate against a market that was at -3%, the creator of the scheme got busted, and then EVERY SINGLE INVESTOR acted completely shocked. Really?

We don’t believe most lies because of the skill of the liar. We believe most lies because the liar tells us what we want to hear. Ask the tough questions, even (or especially) if you like what you hear. Bare minimum, make sure you ask about the next two items…

(4) Ask About Tactics

We’re a very results-oriented business culture, and that’s great. You should ask about metrics and ROI and know what you’ll get for your money. Just don’t let empty promises of results gloss over the details of what specific tactics the vendor plans to use. It’s not just about whether they use “white-hat” or “black-hat” tactics – it’s about whether they have a plan at all. A qualified vendor should be able to map out what they’ll do, and they should be able to explain why they choose to do it that way. It’s also about accountability – if someone tells you what they’re going to do, you can check later to see if they did it.

(5) Find Out the Risks

All SEO carries risks, no matter how “white-hat” it is – most notably, the risk that you’ll spend your money on something that provides no benefit. Every vendor should be able to ballpark the risks in their approach – if they start saying things like “We only use Google-approved methods,” keep pushing. Rules change, and the best SEOs know how to adapt. The ones who think their methods will always work (just because they’ve worked so far) are the ones whose clients get slammed by algorithm updates.

(6) Plan Status Updates

The worst thing you can do is to set a vendor loose, check back in six months, and realize they’ve done something completely different than you expected. Actually, there’s something even worse – when you check back after six months and they can’t even tell you (or won’t tell you) what they’ve done. We see this all the time in link-building – someone hires an SEO firm, rankings drop months later, they suspect the vendor was to blame, but they have no record of what that vendor actually did. I’ve been involved in the kind of detective work that happens at this point, and it isn’t pretty.

Treat your vendor like they’re part of your in-house team – you don’t have to micro-manage, but you should demand accountability. It’s good for both of you – as a conscientious vendor, nothing’s worse than going in the wrong direction for months because of bad communication. I think an Agile approach (borrowed from the software development world) works well – do short, frequent check-ins, agree on some kind of documentation (like a shared document with link sources or tasks), and adjust as needed.

What About Black-hats?

Before I hear about it in the comments, let me be perfectly clear - when I say “thieves and liars”, I am not talking about “black-hat” SEOs. I’m talking about companies that literally steal their clients’ money and lie to them about risks and results. If you want to pursue black-hat tactics, in the sense of knowingly violating Google’s policies, that’s your business. Whether or not I agree with you, all of my advice in this post still applies. Skilled black-hats may not advertise their tactics openly, but once you’re face-to-face with them as a prospective client, they should still be honest about their methods and the risks.

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Rand's Restaurant & Bar Guide to Seattle

Posted: 04 Jun 2012 03:10 AM PDT

Posted by randfish

Many, many folks in the technology, startup and marketing fields come to visit Seattle each year for big events like SMX, Mozcon, SIC and Techstars Demo Day. And in the past, plenty of you have emailed members of our staff asking a critically important question: "Where should I go to eat and drink?"

Being craft-cocktail-hipster Northwest foodie snobs, many of the Mozzers are obsessed with dining and boozing to the very best of our ability. We have weekly beer nights, take out tons of visitors to restaurants and bars across the city and are constantly trying the latest and greatest of what Seattle has to offer. If you follow any of the Mozzer FourSquare accounts (e.g. Jamie, Aaron, myself), you'll see what I mean. Hence, it's our solemn duty to make sure you eat phenomenally well while in the Emerald City. To do that, I've assembled this guide.

A few caveats - since most visitors to Seattle stay in the urban, downtown core, I've tried to keep everything in walking (or very short cab-ride) distance. From the downtown hotels, nearly everything on this list is within a 25 minute walk, and much is under 15. From the waterfront (where SMX is held), the distance is a bit greater for the Capitol Hill locations, but still do-able (and so worthwhile). Below is the Google Map I've created, featuring all the restaurants and bars along with some personal notations on each.

View Moz's Seattle Food & Drink Guide in a larger map

Note that you can click on each location and get a brief description, too.

I'll also list each of the restaurants/bars, with a link to Urbanspoon so you can see more. These will be roughly (but not precisely) in order of how much I like them, so if you trust me completely and need to narrow down your selections, you can just pick from the top few :-)

Let's start with the downtown core & Pike Place Market:

Black Bottle (blasted broccoli is all you need to know)
Bisato (shockingly good Venetian tapas)
The Upstairs (ask the bartender for Upstairs' history, but only if you're not squeamish)
Daily Dozen Donut Co. (crack)
Michou Deli (Mozzers' favorite sandwich spot)
Li'l Woody's (fig+chevre+bacon on the best burger I've had in the city)
Local 360 (everything's local, even the music they play)
Spur Gastropub (molecular gastronomy that's not too-over-the-top)
Cafe Yarmarka (awesome Russian pelmeni & perogi)
Matt's in the Market (upscale lunch + dinner overlooking the market)
DeLaurenti (Italian deli w/ good pizza and panini)
Il Corvo (Only two pastas each day, but they're awesome)
Lola (Tom Douglas' foray into Mediterranean is quite solid)
Le Pichet (go during happy hour; marvel at the liver pate)
Pink Door (sit on the amazing patio)
Fonte Coffee & Wine Bar (coffee, beer, even flatbreads are good)
Shiro's Sushi (one of Seattle's best traditional sushi joints)
Serious Pie (flatbread-style pizza that's very tasty)
Le Panier (phenomenal macaroons)
Branzino (comfy Italian seafood & pasta)
Lecosho (all things pork)
Long Provincial Vietnamese (solid Vietnamese w/ great hot sauce)
Pike Pub & Brewery (great for groups, try the "Kiltlifter")
The Brooklyn (fancy-pants seafood, oysters + steak)
Barolo (fancy-pants Italian)

And then go up to Capitol Hill, which is a slight bit more of a walk, but features many of my favorites:

D'Ambrosio Gelateria (most authentic Italian gelato in the US)
Tavern Law (they make literally the best cocktail I've ever had)
Barrio (upscale Mexican)
Canon: Whiskey & Bitters Emporium (speaks for itself)
Montana (my favorite dive bar)
Marination Station (Korean+Hawaiian sliders & tacos)
Anchovies & Olives (Northwest+Italian)
High 5 Pie (obviously, they make amazing pie)
Knee High Stocking Company (speakeasy-style drinks and surprisingly good food)
Momiji (great sushi, particularly the rolls)
In the Bowl Noodles (It's so good, it's vegetarian and I'm still recommending it)
Terra Plata (great Northwest fusion)
Oddfellows Lodge (excellent for breakfast and late night)
Cupcake Royale (Geraldine's favorite cupcakes; 'nuff said)
Stumptown Coffee Roasters (maybe the best coffee in a coffee-obsessed city)
Big Mario's Pizza (Only place I've ever found w/ true NY-style slices)
The Unicorn (super-insane, clown themed bar with fried snickers)

I also wanted to provide a few places NOT to go in the downtown area, because they're sadly overhyped/overpriced and not worth it (or, in some cases, they're just not "special," e.g. you can find something like Met Grill anywhere in the US) - Canlis, Wild Ginger, McCormick & Schmick's, Metropolitan Grill, Steelhead Diner, the "Original" Starbucks (which, FYI, is not the original, just the oldest one still around), Palomino, Blueacre Seafood, Icon Grill, Lowell's (unless you're just going to get a beer upstairs and for the nostalgia of Sleepless in Seattle).

And finally, if you're willing to travel a bit outside Downtown/Cap Hill for something special, here's my top 10 (note: these aren't on the map; sorry):

Joule (brilliantly done korean+french fusion w/ no pretention)
Phnom Penh Noodle House (awesome Cambodian; get the beef la lot)
La Carta de Oaxaca (their mole is literally the best I've ever had)
Revel (korean+northwest that's over-the-top tasty, but prepare for a long wait)
Serafina (maybe my favorite Italian in the city)
Rover's (super fancy, super pricey, but actually worth it)
Sichuanese Cuisine (truly traditional Chinese, just be cautious in ordering if you're squeemish)
Pam's Kitchen (curry/roti from Trinidad and Tobago; shockingly tasty, but very spicy)
Bitterroot BBQ (possibly the best BBQ in Seattle with a definite hipster twist)
Ocho (consistently excellent tapas & drinks in Ballard)

There you have it! My personal recommendations on where to eat and drink while in the downtown Seattle core. If you visit any of these (or anything else you love), please tweet at me (@randfish) and let me know how it goes!

p.s. This list doesn't include a ton of amazing places I LOVE in all sorts of other Seattle neighborhoods. Maybe I'll assemble something like that in the future. It also probably isn't exhaustive in the area I did cover and it reflects my personal taste, so if you like Applebee's, this list is almost certainly not for you. :-)

p.p.s. Please feel free to add your own favorites below (and don't feel constrained to keep it to the downtown core, but do provide location links so others can see where they'd need to go). Thanks!

That's a Lot of Money!

Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, June 5, 2012

That's a Lot of Money!

The gender wage gap puts women at a career-long disadvantage. In 2011, a typical 25-year-old woman working full-time all year earned $5,000 less than a typical man of the same age. In just 10 years, her cumulative lost wages will reach $34,000. If that earnings gap is not corrected by the age of 65, she will have lost $431,000 over her working lifetime.

This substantial gap is more than a statistic -- it has real life consequences for women and their families. That's why President Obama supports the Paycheck Fairness Act, which Congress puts to a vote today.

Find out more about the gap, and President Obama's steps to secure equal pay.