vineri, 22 iunie 2012

8 Ways to Find Old URLs After a Failed Site Migration - Whiteboard Friday

8 Ways to Find Old URLs After a Failed Site Migration - Whiteboard Friday


8 Ways to Find Old URLs After a Failed Site Migration - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 21 Jun 2012 01:58 PM PDT

Posted by iPullRank

In this week's Whiteboard Friday, we are going to be going through some different ways you can track down old URLs after a site migration. These tactics can be incredibly useful for new clients that have just performed a redesign with less than ideal preparation.

I'll be presenting eight ways for you to track down these old URLs, but I would love to see some of your own methods in the comments below. Happy Friday everyone!



Video Transcription

Greetings and salutations SEOmoz fans. My name is Michael King. I'm the Director of Inbound Marketing at iAcquire. I'm also iPullRank on the SEOmoz boards and on Twitter.

So today what we're going to talk about is eight ways to figure out old URLs after a failed site migration. I know you have this problem. You get a new client, they just redesigned, and you have no idea what the old URLs are. They didn't do 301 redirects. They have no idea what the social numbers are anymore, and you have no idea where to start. Well, I'm going to show you how.

Now one of the first tactics you want to use is the Wayback Machine. You just put the site in there, the URL, the domain, what have you, and see what it has in that index. Once you get that, you can easily just pull off those URLs on the site through the links using Scraper for Chrome or whatever tool you want to use. You can actually pull down a code and pull them out using Find and Replace, whatever you want to do. That's just one of the tactics that we're using.

A lot of times people will also not change or update their XML sitemap. So you can just download that XML sitemap and then open it in Excel, and it puts you in these tables. You can just take that first column and copy and paste it into a text file, open it in Screaming Frog, and then crawl and list mode to see if those URLs still exist. Anything that's a 404, that's a URL that you can use, and you can easily map those ultimately to the new URLs on that site.

You also want to use your Backlink profile. When I say that, I don't want you to essentially use one tool, I want you to use as many tools as possible. So definitely start from Open Site Explorer. Also use Majestic, Ahrefs, whatever you want to use, and collect as much link data as possible. Also Webmaster Tools has your links, so use those as well. Then crawl all those links, all the targets of those links and make sure those pages are still in existence. All the 404s, again, you know these are old URLs that you can then redirect to new pages.

Then you also want to check the 404s from Google Webmaster Tools and map those pages to new pages as well. Then you can also use analytics. So pull your historic analytics from before the site redesign and find all those URLs and see which ones are still in existence. Again, go back to Screaming Frog with list mode and make sure that they're 404ing or 200ing. The ones that are 200, you don't have to worry about. The ones that are 404s are the ones that you need to remap.

Then you can also use CMS Change Log. So, for example, when you make a change in WordPress to a URL, there's a record of that, and you can actually pull those URLs out and use those again for mapping.

Then, for those of you that are a little more adventurous, you can go into your log files and see what URLs were driving traffic before it. Same thing as what you would do with the analytics, but just from a server side standpoint rather than just your click path stuff.

And also social media. So people share these URLs. Any shared URL has equity beyond just link equity. So you definitely want to make sure that you're pushing those social shared numbers to the right URLs that you're mapping towards, and I wrote a post on that on Search Engine Watch for how you can do that. But you can use the Facebook recommendations tool. So it's not really a tool. It's a demo for widget that goes on your site. But essentially, you can go through this tool and put in the domain name, and it's going to give you all the shared URLs, all the shared content. The way it comes in the box is it's 300 pixels tall, but if you expand that to a 1,000 pixels, you'll see the top 20 pieces of content that were shared. So real easily identify a popular URL that you can then redirect.

Also you can Topsy the same way. If people have tweeted these URLs, you can just put that domain name in there. It's going to search for them. It's going to give you all the URLs that Topsy has indexed. You can also use Social Mention, any social listening tool you can use the same way. And then also social bookmarks, so things like Digg, Delicious, and such, look and see what people have actually shared and bookmarked for your site.

So that's a quick one. Hope you guys found that useful, and I'd love to know how you guys have found this to be worthwhile. So holler at me in the comments down there, and thanks very much. Peace.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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The Complete Guide to Link Building with Local Events

Posted: 21 Jun 2012 04:37 AM PDT

Posted by Kane Jamison

Whether you’re a small local business or an international company, hosting local events is a great way to build your brand, both offline and online.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise to us internet marketers that there are plenty of non-internet-savvy organizations that are hosting workshops, speaking at events, and getting their brand out there using offline methods to promote their events. If that sounds like your business or one of your clients, there’s a good chance you’re missing out on a number of link opportunities every time you host an event.
 

Why You Need to Do This

Why You Should Be Building Links By Hosting Events:

Here are the primary reasons that this is such a great strategy:

  1. Lots of Easily Obtainable Links: These are easy links that fit Danny's Sullivan's recent description of hard links. They're hard because you have to develop a good presentation, find a venue, and get people to attend. But, they're links made for real people, and they add value to your business regardless of their SEO value by getting people interested in your event and your brand.

    Why are they easy? So long as you have an interesting event that is put on by a legitimate organization, you’re very likely to get accepted by most event listing sites. Many of the event sites require a simple form consisting of an event title, description, when and where the event takes place, and of course, a URL for more information. And as long as your event is valuable to the people that will attend, the outreach portion can be much easier than other link outreach methods.
     
  2. Links On Otherwise Difficult Domains: It can be pretty hard to get a link from a major newspaper, TV station, or other prominent local website. Getting an event into their events section is like the secret entrance into getting a link from that domain.
     
  3. “Geo-Relevant” Links: Let me ask you two questions:

    First, do you think that search engines think a website like the Seattle Times is relevant to the city of Seattle?

    If so, do you think that getting a followed link from a website like the Seattle Times would in turn make you appear more relevant for the city of Seattle - or people searching from the city of Seattle for that matter?
     
  4. Local Citations: Whether or not you’re hosting the event at your place of business, event listings are an easy way to sneak in your Name / Address / Phone Number to get a local search citation, too. Since many of you will be using these strategy on a local business, this is just some extra value (quantity of citations are a big local SEO ranking factor).
     
  5. Diverse Links: Julie Joyce wrote a great article a few months ago discussing why it's important to have a diverse link profile. I personally place a lot of emphasis on Linking Root Domains as a link metric because I think it’s fairly critical to a strong link profile.

    Getting listed on these event websites is a quick and easy way to get lots of new linking root domains for your backlink profile, and many of them are domains you can only get links from by hosting events. It's also great for getting links to internal event pages on your site, with easy long-tail anchor text such as the title of your event.
The takeaway? There's a ton of value here. There's also a good chance that your competitors aren't doing this type of link building, so it's an excellent way to set yourself apart from the crowd.
 
I need to point out one other thing before we really dive in:
 
The overwhelming majority of the value from hosting events comes from the event itself, so don't get lost in the link building aspects of the strategy. You should be hosting events because that's the type of sh*t real businesses do.
 
This guide is really meant to make sure you're getting the most online marketing value from your events. That doesn't mean link building can or should be your entire focus when hosting an event. Just like the internet, you have to create good content for your real-world events in order for it to be worth your time.
 

Who Can Use This Link Building Strategy

Types of Events This Guide Will Apply To:

My personal experience in building links to local events is primarily for business workshops, but these methods can be applied any event you’re hosting:
  • local concerts
  • business workshops
  • art shows
  • knitting clubs
  • academic lectures
  • international conferences

You’ll definitely want to go above and beyond these tips for a large conference, but when combined with sponsorships and similar conference partnerships, this guide can form a large part of your strategy). 
 

Overview

Outline of This Guide:

I’ve tried to make this a pretty comprehensive guide. Here’s what we’re going to cover: 

  1. How to Structure Your Event Pages
  2. Search Queries You Can Use to Find Event Listing Opportunities
  3. 9 Examples of Event Websites To Get You Started
  4. Competitive Analysis - No Need to Reinvent the Wheel
  5. Outreach - How to Move Beyond Link Submissions
  6. Advanced Tactics to Consider
  7. Making the Most of the Event & Wrap Up
 
How to Structure Event Pages

How to Structure Your Event Pages

Before you get started with link building, there are a handful of things you need to consider when getting started with marketing your events:
 

Events Page(s) on Your Website:

Upcoming Events PageIf you host a large number of events every year, you’ll probably want to have a dedicated events page (e.g distilled.com/events/) that lists upcoming and past events with a short description, and then links to unique pages for each event that you host (e.g. distilled.net/events/linklove-boston/) that feature a long description.
 
However, if you don’t host very many events, or only plan on doing this once in a while, you might consider having a single dedicated events page (e.g. hoodwebmanagement.com/events/) that lists all upcoming and past events together with full descriptions. This has the benefit of accumulating a large number of ongoing links to the same page over time. This is the format that I use on Hood Web Management's events page - the top of the page has upcoming events, and the bottom half of the page is a growing list of past events and their descriptions.
 

Choosing a Ticket Sales Provider for Paid Events:

If you plan to sell tickets to your event, you might decide to use a ticket service to do so. This offers a great link opportunity if you plan it correctly.
 
Note: I would not make the ticket sales page the main event page that you use when link building. You should have the main event page on your website, and a “register” or “buy” button that sends visitors to the ticket sales page. This way we’re focusing most of the links to your website, not the ticket website.
 
Followed Links on EventbriteYou need to pick your ticket sales website carefully. One good choice would be Eventbrite, a ticket-selling website that allows followed links from your event description. A sampling of old Eventbrite listings that I glanced at had Page Authorities ranging from 30 to 40, and they’re on a Domain Authority 97 domain. Not a bad link to add to your collection, huh? This example on the right is from MozCon 2011's Eventbrite Listing. The green highlighting is the SEOmoz toolbar highlighting Followed Links.
 
Eventbrite is free if the event you’re hosting is free and you want to collect RSVPs, so there’s no reason not to use it for those events. If your event is paid, you don’t necessarily need to use Eventbrite for your ticket sales, but be conscious that if you’re going to pay a commission to your ticket seller, you might as well get a few good followed links from them in the process. Another good option for followed links from a high-quality domain is Brown Paper Tickets (DA 88).
 
Search Queries for Event Link Building

Search Queries You Can Use to Find Event Listing Opportunities:

Seattle Submit Your Event SearchOnce you get your content pages set up, it’s time to prospect for event listing websites that are relevant to you. Since many of the local event websites that you’ll be looking for are unique to your region and your event type, your best strategy will be to use search queries like the ones below to prospect for links:
 
city inurl:event inurl:submit
keyword inurl:event inurl:submit
city keyword inurl:event inurl:submit
 
city inurl:event inurl:add
keyword inurl:event inurl:add
city keyword inurl:event inurl:add
 
city keyword "suggest a meetup" site:www.meetup.com
 
keyword city "submit event"
keyword city "submit an event"
keyword city "submit your event"
keyword city "add event"
keyword city "add an event"
keyword city "add your event"
keyword city "submit your workshop"
keyword city "submit your course"
keyword city "submit your class"
keyword city "submit your conference"
 
You’ll naturally want to change citykeyword to whatever is most relevant to your event, and add or remove those terms to get more or less results.
 
There's plenty more possible search queries you can use - if you have more suggestions leave them in the comments!
 

Example of Sites Found for Seattle Business Events:

Here’s an example of the types of websites that I find when looking for business-focused events in Seattle:
That’s just a sampling of sites that showed up in two or three quick searches. To answer the inevitable question, yes, you should absolutely fill out the listings that have nofollow links. They contribute value and still get your event in front of people, which is the ultimate goal of hosting the event in the first place.
 
Nofollow Links Are Great
 

Pro Tip: Keep Your Eye Out For Curated Lists of Event Websites:

Occasionally while link prospecting you’ll run across an awesome resource like this list of Seattle business networking websites, many of which will be happy to list your event for their audience:
 
Seattle Event Calendar Listings
 
There’s two opportunities here: the first is to get your events page listed if it’s the right fit. The second is to visit each page on the list and submit your specific event. Lists like this will save you tons of work, so be certain to bookmark them when you find them.
 
Examples of Event Websites

10 Examples of Event Websites to Get You Started:

As mentioned already, most of the sites you submit to will be specific to your region and your niche. That said, there are some national event listing websites that will apply to almost every event.
 
Note: As an added bonus, some of these sites, especially Eventful, will get scraped and used as a data source for other websites, so be sure to factor Scrape Rate into your event link building.
  1. Eventful.com - Eventful listings often get used as a data source by newspapers and other large websites, so it’s highly recommended that you create a listing there.
  2. Meetup.com - You don’t want to spam Meetup.com groups, so it’s a good idea to ask the group leader if it’s OK to post your event, but Meetup.com is an excellent link source and an excellent place to get real exposure for your event.
  3. Patch.com - Patch is a network of neighborhood websites and provide a great followed link if there’s a Patch 
  4. Upcoming.Yahoo.com - Nothing like a free link from a Yahoo! subdomain - get one while you still can...
  5. Events.org - The name says it all. Here’s their “Add An Event” page.
  6. Lanyrd.com - Focused on conferences and larger events, there’s plenty of other conference-specific sites like this to look for.
  7. Seattle.gov - Yup, that’s right, you too can get a .gov link from a hugely valuable city website. Here’s their submit events page. In addition to your local city, check out your local visitor’s bureau and travel guide websites for your area.
  8. Earth911.com - This website is a good example of thinking outside of your primary keywords. Let’s say you’re a sustainable landscaping company, and you’re hosting a class talking about ways to integrate native plants into the lawn. While you might be looking for gardening event sites at first, there’s a wider audience interested in that topic that you could reach through a site like Earth911, which simply lists “eco-friendly events.”
  9. ConnecticutBloggers.com - This is another good example of thinking outside normal keywords. They list events for just about anything happening in Connecticut. Easy as pie to find these for your own state. Find similar sites for your neighborhood or even county.
  10. CultureMob.com - CultureMob applies to a small set of cities, but their “Add Your Event” page is a good example of the types of pages we want to find while doing search queries.

Pro Tip: Look Out For Link Building Footprints

Think you’re a real link building master? If you are, you might have noticed a footprint on the Seattle.gov/calendar page. Scroll down to the bottom where it says “Events calendar powered by Trumba”:
 
Link building footprint
 
Trumba is an event and calendar software package that is apparently used by high profile websites like Seattle.gov. Now head over to Google and do a search for the following: 
 
keyword city "Powered by Trumba" -site:trumba.com
 
Or if you’re feeling really ambitious, add inurl:.edu or inurl:.gov to the end of the search. That should yield some solid websites for you to choose from. Keep an eye out for other calendar footprints like that, since they are definitely plenty of similar services just like Trumba that do the same style of footprint.
 
Another footprint to test out is this one for Eventful.com’s partners:
 
keyword city "Event Data Provided By Eventful"
 
 
Competitive Analysis

Competitive Analysis (aka Don’t Reinvent the Wheel)

Guess what? You’re probably not the first person to host an event in your niche. Which means you don’t have to do quite as much link building bushwhacking, because there’s a chance that similar event hosts have done some of it for you.
 
Find similar events, and type the title of their event into Google. You should get a few results back related to that event. Even better, take a snippet from the event description and paste it with quotes into Google. Assuming they used the same description on all of their event listings it should return most of the places where they listed the event. 
 
Also, take a look at where those event pages have received links from using Open Site Explorer, Blekko, etc.
 
Example: Let's say I'm hosting a knitting event in Seattle. I can do a search for "seattle knitting workshop." I don't get a ton of event listings for that, but if I add a year at the end and make it "seattle knitting workshop 2012," I suddenly get some relevant listings of knitting events. One of which is MadronaFiberArts.com, which sponsors the Winter Fiber Retreat. If I enter http://madronafiberarts.com/ into Open Site Explorer I get 56 Linking Root Domains from websites like BlueMoonFiberArts.com and KnitCircus.libsyn.com, talking about this event:
 
Competitive Link Analysis
 
If they linked to something similar in the past, there's a good chance they'll link to you, too, if you ask them nicely.
 
Which brings us to our next section: Email Outreach.
 
 
Link Building Outreach

Outreach - How to Move Beyond Link Submissions:

While all of the above websites will take you a while to complete, and offer relatively good value links for the amount of effort they take, they’re still relatively easy for a competitor to copy. That makes them only moderately valuable to us in the long run. It would be downright lazy of us to ignore higher value links that can’t be obtained through a submit form.
 
Link outreach has been discussed at length here on SEOmoz and elsewhere, so I’m not going to rehash the topic by telling you how to craft the perfect outreach email - check out the links below for help with that.
 
The basic website and blogger outreach process is to do the following:
  • Identify the type of websites that would care about the event. If you’re hosting a Knitting 101 Workshop, then you’ll want to find local knitting blogs, local knitting groups, local mommy blogs, local DIY blog, local craft blogs, etc.
     
  • Get the contact information and simply email the blogger or website owner with a nice, polite request to see if your event is something their readers would be interested in.
That’s the short version. This ain't rocket science, but if you're too aggressive you can blow your chances of getting a link. A good practice is to reach out to the person for another reason, and let the topic come up more naturally in subsequent emails.
 
Great Resources for Developing and Improving Your Email Outreach Methods:
Here’s some excellent resources on link building outreach and how to approach bloggers with a request. I recommend starting with the email examples used in these posts and customizing them to your needs:

Advanced Tactics

Advanced Tactics to Consider:

Once you've got the basics down, here are some other specialized tactics to help you get more value from your process:

  1. 2nd Tier Link Building - Second tier link building is the practice of building backlinks to your backlinks. The purpose is to give the backlink pointing to your site higher page authority, making it a more valuable link.

    Initially you should be using the overall events strategy to build links to your own domain. But let’s say you host quite a few events, and you’ve got a process in place with a developed list of websites where you post your events.

    Next, time, rather than linking to the primary event page on your website when you relist the event on the list of sites, consider creating the primary event page on another domain (e.g. http://biznik.com/events/seo-search-engine-meetup--24). Make sure this 3rd party site has a followed link to your own domain, like this example:

    Second Tier Link Building

    Then, when you’re filling out all of your event listing submissions, use the 3rd party URL instead of your own site. By doing so, you’re creating a higher Page Authority on that 3rd party URL, which means a more valuable link back to your site.
     
  2. Citation Building - If the event is being held at your business, then your business’s name, address, and phone (NAP) should be listed on there. But, even if the event isn’t being held at your business’s address, you can still stick your NAP at the end of the listing like this:

    For more information, please contact Hood Web Management at (206) 905-4053, by email at info@hoodwebmanagement.com, or find us at 10007 35th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98146.

    It’s quick and easy and it helps to build trust and legitimacy for your local business, and helps your business in local search rankings. If you’re not a local business trying to rank for local search results, then this tactic won’t be very relevant to you.
     
  3. Double-Dipping on Links - Most event websites will have a place for at least one link, which you’ll want to use for the primary event page on your website. But, there are many event listing sites that will allow a second link to a “ticket purchase” page. Use this as an opportunity to grab a second link to another page on your site if applicable, or to another event listing of yours on a third party site.

    You can also use it as an opportunity to link to a purchase page on another domain. The example at the beginning of this article about using Eventbrite is a good example, since adding links to that ticket page will in turn build its page authority, which then passes to our own domain.

    If the listing site allows links in the description of the event, well then that’s just icing on the cake. Resist the urge to stick 25 links in there and limit yourself to a handful of highly relevant pages on your site. Overdo it in a tacky way and you’ll risk getting flagged as spam or they may not approve your event listing. There's no set number I can recommend, but if it feels like you're overdoing it, you're probably overdoing it. On top of my own links I'll freely link to other presenters, the venue, or any organization sponsoring my event. Giver's gain, so be sure to promote your event partners, too.
     
  4. Implement Schema.org for Events on Your Website - In a nutshell, implementing schema.org formatting for events will help your website show up with rich snippets with event dates and titles. Take a look at http://schema.org/Event to get started and this rich snippets implementation for Eventful.com:

    Rich Snippets for Events
     
  5. Host An Event With Someone Else Speaking - Not all of us are great public speakers. That doesn’t have to stop you from utilizing this technique. Invite a guest speaker that is relevant to your business to present at an event you host. For example, a nutritionist might team up with a restaurant chef, or an accountant might team up with a lawyer. There’s plenty of ways to spin this and add even more value to your event and potential attendees.
     
  6. Speak at Someone Else’s Event - Not only can you invite someone else to your event, you can use this strategy for other people’s events that you speak at. If you want, you can even get them involved in some of this marketing and link building process, and they can build links to their website and yours in the process. Pulling them in as a sponsor is also a great way to engage their entire audience, who will likely be interested in your event.
 
Making the Most of Your Event

Making the Most of the Event & Wrap Up:

Now that you’ve gone through all of this work to build links and promote the event, your job’s not over yet. In fact, some of the best link opportunities can come after the event is over. Here’s a list of steps I take during and after an event to get the most value:
 
  • Build Your List: Have a clipboard and signup sheet for your mailing list handy. If there are slides for your presentation, offer to email a PDF or Powerpoint file of the presentation to anyone who adds their email to your mailing list signup. Usually that’s enough to get most attendees to add their email - just in case they want to refer back to the slides. If you're not building an email list, ask them to follow you on Twitter or connect on LinkedIn or whatever other presence you maintain, and give them a way to stay connected with you. Here's a photo of the mailing list form that I pass around at my speaking events:

    Mailing List Signup Sheet
     
  • Event Wrapup Page: Often it’s good to have a wrapup page for the event. Here's an example from a recent link building presentation I gave: Why Links Matter to Small Businesses and How to Get Them. This is a dedicated page on your website that has references from the event (such as a Slideshare embed of presentations or perhaps links to other resources you mentioned) and other pertinent information. It’s also a great place for event attendees to link after the event.

    Post Event Landing Page

    When I send out the copy of my slides to event attendees, I email them the link to this page and encourage them to share it freely and link to it.

    Speaking of links after the event...
     
  • Ask for the Link: You know how in sales they tell you to “Ask for the Sale?” Well link building is no different, and just like sales, many times your audience will be happy to do it - if you just ask them. Ask your audience (nicely) that if they liked the event and found it useful, to link or Tweet or Facebook share or LinkedIn share the event wrapup page. Many will do it, and you’ll get some good social traction and maybe some real links, too.
I reached out to Jonathon Colman, the lead SEO for REI, and asked him for additional suggestions on getting the most value out of your presentations and speaking engagements. Jonathon speaks at many conferences and events and publishes his presentations at slideshare.net/jcolman/. Here’s what he had to say:
  • Market your Slideshare.net presence and individual slide decks the same way you would your event page or blog posts. Obtain Likes, Tweets, +1s, links, etc. based on the power and usefulness of your content. Slide decks that gain enough velocity in views and social activity on Slideshare become featured on their homepage, which is a great way to get links, coverage, and build more relationships.
     
  • Also promote the presentations of other people who spoke at or attended your event. You look your best when you make other people look good.
     
  • Market your events and event artifacts (slides, photos, blog coverage, etc.) on Lanyrd.com. Also list all of your events so that you build up a history and a positive, professional, speaking profile.
     
  • Search Google, Twitter, Quora, and StackExchange for people asking questions about the specific topics that your slide deck or event addresses and engage them with answers. Never bomb them with a link unless they ask for one.
     

Other Strategies

This guide may seem like a lot of information, but I think it’s just the tip of the iceberg for link building methods with local events.
 
What other search queries, event listing websites, and event outreach strategies can you think of to share in the comments?
 
Speaking of local events, come say hello to me if you see me at MozCon. I'll be one of the 37 bearded guys wearing plaid shirts - just keep tapping them on the shoulder and commenting on their awesome event link building post on SEOmoz - eventually you'll get to me.
 
You should do it because Roger says so:
 
The Most Interesting Robot In The World
 
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West Wing Week: 06/22/12 or "Dreamers"

The White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, June 22, 2012

 

West Wing Week: 06/22/12 or "Dreamers"

This week, the President talks about an important policy change on immigration that more closely aligns our policy with our values, and traveled to the Group of 20 Summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, to work toward stabilization of the global economy.

Watch West Wing Week:

West Wing Week

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

40th Anniversary of Title IX
The White House Council on Women and Girls celebrated the 40th anniversary of Title IX with dozens of advocates and leaders who are continuing the fight for gender equity in our schools.

Community Colleges are Changing the Way We Think About Workforce Development
As part of her Community College to Career tour, Dr. Jill Biden visited Coyote Logistics, a company working with City Colleges of Chicago to make sure their training program prepares students with the skills they need to succeed in jobs in the transportation, distribution and logistics industry.

1 is 2 Many Launches Dating Violence Public Service Announcement
Vice President Joe Biden's initiative to prevent violence and abuse against women introduces a new public service announcement to help young men hear from other men they respect that violence is wrong and that men must help end it by speaking out.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

10:00 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

10:15 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Orlando, Florida

12:15 PM: The President arrives Orlando, Florida

1:40 PM: The President delivers remarks at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials’ Annual Conference WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:55 PM: The President departs Orlando, Florida en route Tampa, Florida

3:30 PM: The President arrives Tampa, Florida

4:15 PM: The President delivers remarks at a campaign event

6:35 PM: The President departs Tampa, FL en route Joint Base Andrews

8:30 PM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews

8:45 PM: The President arrives the White House

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : Before you raise money (assets and expenses)

Before you raise money (assets and expenses)

There are more ways to raise money for your business, project or organization than ever before. There are more angel investors, more online sites, more VCs... it's true that the local bank has largely abandoned this responsibility, but the web keeps reminding us of the opportunities.

Here's the key thing you have to understand before you ask your mom or your friends or the local VC for an investment:

There's a huge difference between spending money on expenses and spending money to build an asset.

Ice at a picnic is an expense. Once it melts, it's gone. Your electric bill, rent--these are costs of doing business, and you should rarely if ever borrow money to pay them.

Assets, on the other hand, are things that sustain or grow in value, that you can use again and again, and that are ultimately worth more than they cost.

A college degree from the right institution is an asset. So is an earned list of 10,000 people who want to hear from you by email once a week. So is a reputation (which some people call a brand).

For entrepreneurs, then, the math is simple: any asset-building opportunity that will generate a long-term profit is worth considering and even worth borrowing money to acquire.

But if your business needs to borrow money to simply pay your expenses, to keep you at a steady state, you're doomed. Unless those expenses are demonstrably building a bigger asset for tomorrow, you're going to regret the investment, because it's not an investment, it's just a waste.

The second thing to keep in mind is this: you probably have to pay the money back. Don't borrow money to pay for an asset unless you can see a clear path to paying it back. That might mean selling the asset later (which is what VCs almost always do) or it might mean building a project where the asset is so profitable you can pay people back directly (which is why it's worth borrowing money to go to Harvard Medical School).

If you sell a percentage of your company (which is what most investors ask for) then you've basically started down the path to sell the whole thing in order for the investors to get repaid. Nothing wrong with that, just be sure you're going in with your eyes open.

When in doubt, raise money from your customers by selling them something they truly need--your product.



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joi, 21 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Lagarde Shows True Colors

Posted: 21 Jun 2012 07:35 PM PDT

The Financial Times says IMF challenges Berlin's crisis response
The International Monetary Fund on Thursday challenged Berlin's game plan for pulling the eurozone out of its crisis by advocating a series of short-term fixes that the German government has resisted.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, said eurozone leaders needed to prevent the single currency from deteriorating further by considering the resumption of bond buying by the European Central Bank and pumping bailout money directly into teetering banks.

While Germany has resisted such measures, Ms Lagarde said the IMF was concerned about "additional tension and acute stress" in both the European banking sector and peripheral governments. She warned that the long-term measures being considered by EU leaders ahead of a summit next week were not enough.

"The IMF believes that a determined and forceful move towards complete European monetary union should be reaffirmed in order to restore faith in the system because we see at the moment, the viability of the European monetary system is questioned," Ms Lagarde said.

In addition to the short-term measures, Ms Lagarde also called on the eurozone to complete a fiscal and banking union in the longer-term, structures that she said should include a eurozone-wide bank deposit guarantee scheme and "gradual but limited" mutualisation of eurozone sovereign debt – both measures also resisted by Berlin.

Ms Lagarde said that while the IMF consulted several EU institutions in its three-week evaluation, it did not run its recommendations by Berlin.

"We did not go into each and every member state's political position," she said.
True Colours

In case you were looking for Lararde's true colours (colors if you prefer), here they are.



There certainly was no need for Lagarde to consult Berlin. After all, France's position is all that matters.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly)

Posted: 21 Jun 2012 10:14 AM PDT

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.

When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let's take a look at why.

US Manufacturing PMI

Markit reports PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months

Key points:

  • PMI lowest since July 2011, suggesting slower rate of manufacturing expansion
  • Rate of output growth broadly unchanged
  • New orders rise at weakest pace in four months
  • Input costs fall for first time in three years



Durable Goods Orders Plunge



Those numbers do not look good but they are hardly disastrous. Here are some numbers that are disastrous.

Philly Fed Survey

For the second consecutive month the Philly Fed Survey has been solidly in the red.



click on chart for sharper image

Those numbers are nothing short of a disaster.
The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from a reading of ‐5.8 in May to ‐16.6, its second consecutive negative reading. Nearly 40 percent of the firms reported declines in activity this month, exceeding the 22 percent that reported increases in activity.

Indexes for new orders and shipments also showed notable declines, falling 18 and 20 points, respectively. Indexes for current unfilled orders and delivery times both registered negative readings again this month, suggesting lower levels of unfilled orders and faster deliveries.

Firms' responses suggest steady employment this month but shorter hours. The percentage of firms reporting higher employment (14 percent) edged out the percentage reporting lower employment (12 percent). The current employment index increased 3 points this month. Firms indicated fewer hours worked this month: the average workweek index decreased 14 points and posted its third consecutive negative reading.
Misguided Optimism



click on chart for sharper image

Note the misguided optimism about six months from now. It's not going to happen.

Why?

  1. Europe is a disaster.
  2. US manufacturing is cooling rapidly
  3. China is cooling rapidly: China Manufacturing PMI 7-Month Low, Sharpest Decline in New Export Orders Since March 2009
  4. US Monetary policy is at best useless, but more likely net harmful, especially to those on fixed income.
  5. First year presidential politics are frequently recessionary
  6. US still needs fiscal tightening
  7. Unemployment insurance has expired for millions: 200,000 Lose Unemployment Benefits This Week, Nearly Half From California
  8. Self-Employment desperation: 100% of U.S. Jobs Added Since 2010 Have Been Self-Employment, Contractor, or Other Jobs Without Unemployment Insurance Benefits
  9. Last two jobs reports have been dismal: Another Payroll Disaster: Jobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000
  10. The 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims is at the highest rate of the year, at 386,250.
  11. New home sales cannot gain significant traction: New Home Sales Hype vs. Reality
  12. Tax Armageddon

Deficit spending has carried this "recovery" further than I thought it would, but the party is now over.

It will be difficult if not impossible to overcome the above set of circumstances regardless of what anyone feels about economic back-tested recession probabilities.

Taxmageddon

Please consider Taxmageddon 
The Tax Foundation reports that because of higher federal income and corporate tax collections, Tax Freedom Day came four days later this year than last. And the bad news is that unless Washington takes action, it will take working Americans 11 more days to meet next year's tax burden.

That's all due to Taxmageddon — a slew of expiring tax cuts and new tax increases that will hit Americans on January 1, 2013, amounting to a $494 billion tax hike. Heritage's Curtis Dubay reports that American households can expect to face an average tax increase of $3,800 and that 70 percent of Taxmageddon's impact will fall directly on low-income and middle-income families, leaving them with $346 billion less to spend.
Taxes Will Go Through the Roof

PolicyMic reports When the Payroll Tax Holiday Ends in 2013, Taxes Will Go Through the Roof
Without significant tax code changes, in 2013, America is scheduled to get hit with what would be the largest tax increase in our history.

Not only will the $1,000 per year tax holiday for a $50,000 income household disappear, come 2013 all Americans will see the tax on their first $8,700 of income jump from a 10% rate to 15% rate.

That hike will cost the majority of filers an additional $435.

For those eligible for child care tax credits that deduction will drop from $1,000 to $500. The marriage penalty will roar back into effect. The AMT, alternative minimum tax, will finally kick in.

Roll those changes up and a family filing as married with two children making $50,000, will see their taxes increase by basically $2,700.
Regardless of whether or not you feel taxes need to be raised, a big set of tax hikes is scheduled to happen.

To be sure, some of those hikes will be undone in compromises,  but many if not most will sneak through.

Who is to blame for Taxmageddon?

Republican are to blame. They accepted this silly deal instead of a far better one that Obama would actually have signed.

But No! Republicans insisted on no tax hikes at all in 2012, putting everything off until after the election, believing Romney would win in a cake-walk.

However, if President Obama wins, certainly not at all an unlikely possibility, he is going to drive a much harder bargain this go around.

Regardless of tax consequences, the US is headed for recession, if not already in one. 2013 rates to be a disaster regardless who wins.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Monti Begs Germany to Stabilize Interest Rates; Merkel Pours Cold Water On "Theoretical Discussions"; Italy Official Denial #1; Why Monti's Days Are Numbered

Posted: 21 Jun 2012 07:53 AM PDT

The G-20 summit is over. As expected, the two-day summit produced nothing but bickering.

On day one, European Commission president Jose Barroso kicked things off by sniping at a Canadian reporter and blaming the US for Europe's problems.

UK Independent Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage responded by calling Barroso a "delusional idiot".

For a highly entertaining video of Farage's tongue lashing, check out Nigel Farage: "EC president Jose Barroso is a Delusional Idiot, The Whole Thing's a Giant Ponzi Scheme!"

Merkel Ambushed

On day two, French president François Hollande and Italian technocrat prime minister Mario Monti combined to Ambush German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel, German chancellor, is well accustomed to turning up at international events to receive lectures on how to solve the eurozone's crisis, but at the Group of 20 in Los Cabos the meeting turned into an ambush.

This time, the rebellion against Ms Merkel came from within the eurozone. Mario Monti, who last year received Ms Merkel's imprimatur after succeeding Silvio Berlusconi as Italy's prime minister, suggested the eurozone's €440bn rescue fund should be used to drive down rocketing borrowing costs for both Spain and Italy.

Mr Monti denied Italy was about to seek help, but confirmed there were ongoing discussions about ways to reward "virtuous countries", such as Italy and Spain, that are nevertheless being punished by financial markets.

"The idea is to stabilize borrowing costs, especially for countries who are complying with their reform goals, and this should be clearly separated from the idea of a bailout," Mr Monti told a press conference.

The proposal was quickly seized upon by François Hollande, the new French president who has shown no compunction about publicly disagreeing with Ms Merkel about her crisis management plans since he assumed office last month.

Ms Merkel quickly left the summit on Tuesday evening with only brief comments to the media. But back in Berlin on Wednesday, she insisted such discussions were only theoretical and German officials attempted to pour cold water on the idea.
Official Denial

Please note the "official denial" from Italy: "Mr Monti denied Italy was about to seek help." A few more of those denials and it will be 100% clear Italy will "seek help".

How many official denials were there in Spain before it happened? I recall at least a half-dozen in the span of a week, and dozens in the preceding month.

Monti Begs Germany to Stabilize Interest Rates

Also note the self-serving interests of Monti, practically begging (with help from Hollande) to stabilize borrowing costs of "virtuous countries", such as Italy and Spain.

Monti claimed there were "ongoing discussions" on doing just that. Indeed there were. Alas, those discussions were led by "delusional idiots" including European Commission president Jose Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council.

Merkel once again poured cold water on the ideas, calling them "theoretical".

Why shouldn't she pour cold water on the idea? The only way to stabilize rates in Italy  and Spain is to destabilize them in Germany.

Questions of the Day

Might I ask why there needs to be a European Commission and a European Council, each with their own president and staff?

Are two delusional idiots better than one?

Why not a European Committee as well? That way we could have three "EC" presidents.

Why Monti's Day's Are Numbered

To understand why Monti's days are numbered, one only need look at a pair of polls, the first in November 2011, the second one a few days ago.

Please consider this now-humorous headline from November 20, 2011: Everybody Loves Mario Monti
According to a new survey conducted by polling company Demos for daily newspaper La Repubblica, 80% of Italians support his new technocratic government. An even higher proportion, 84%, approve of Monti personally.
Now consider this this June 15, 2012 article: Monti's approval rating falls to new low
Monti's approval rating dropped 1 percentage point to 33 percent by mid-June compared to the start of the month, after falling steadily from a high of 71 percent when he became prime minister last year, the SWG-Agora poll showed.

When asked how effective Monti's government is, three quarters of those polled said "not much" or "not at all". Monti's technocrat government took over from Silvio Berlusconi last year to try to transform the economy and avert a Greek-style debt crisis.

The poll also showed a rise in the number of people who planned to vote for comedian Beppe Grillo's Five-Star movement, which has become Italy's second most popular party after dealing a stunning blow to traditional parties in local elections in May.

Twenty-four percent said they would vote for the center-left Democratic Party (PD), up from 23.2 percent. Voter support for Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party fell to 15 percent from 15.4 percent.

About 21 percent of survey respondents said they would vote for Grillo's movement, up from 20.2 percent earlier in June.
Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement Now Second Largest Party

While everyone was glued to the elections in Greece, far more significant events were happening in Italy and France.

Support for Grillo is at 21 percent, support for PD is  23.2 percent. All it will take is a mere two percentage point shift to put Five Star in the lead.

Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain

To understand the significance of the Five Star Movement, please read Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement.

The article discusses the Five Star movement from the perspective of reader "Andrea" who is from Italy but now lives in France.

Grillo's personal opinion (not a mandate for the Five Star Movement) is for Italy to get out of the Euro and default on debt.

Socialists Take Over French Parliament

For more about France, please see Greek Election Sideshow; Socialists Win Absolute Majority in France

Early Elections

The nannycrats in Brussels (assuming they are paying attention which is of course debatable) are no doubt in huge fear of early elections in Italy.

On June 4, 2012 Reuters reported Pressure grows in ruling Italian party for early election
Prime Minister Mario Monti no longer has the backing in parliament to adopt more reforms and Italy should consider holding an early election before the year-end, the economic spokesman for a major ruling party told Reuters on Sunday.

"In this political context and with this parliament, Monti does not have the strength to carry out more reforms," said Stefano Fassina, economic spokesman of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), one of the two main parties Monti depends on for his majority.

"We should verify quickly if there is any chance of reforming the electoral law and if that doesn't work we should consider the possibility of bringing forward the budget law for 2013 and voting in the autumn," he said in an interview.

On Friday, Berlusconi said Italy should leave the euro unless the European Central Bank agreed to pump more cash into the economy, only to play down his remarks the next day as a "joke".
Four Front Battle

Note the brewing four-front battle: Italy, Spain, France, Greece. Of those, Italy is the most crucial.

Time is not on the nannyrats' side.The longer the delay before an election in Italy, the more strength the Five Star movement will gather.

"See you in the next Parliament" Beppe Grillo said after the local elections in May.

Let's hope so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List