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Shine is fresh and new and it sparkles. Shiny catches the eye and it appeals to the neophiliac, to the person in search of polish.
Patina, on the other hand, can only be earned. Patina communicates trust (because the untrusted don't last long enough to earn a patina) and it appeals to a very different audience.
The old guy at the gym in spandex, taking steroids and brutalizing himself on the big machine--he's trying to be both and accomplishing neither.
Brands and organizations face the same choice. A book like Permission Marketing could be updated weekly, in a vain attempt on my part to keep it shiny. But that makes no sense, as the ideas in it are important because they've been right for a decade, not because they're new. That's what a new title is for.
The challenge, then, is to let your classics thrive precisely because they've earned the right, because they have a patina of quality--but not to rest on those laurels, but to get busy inventing the new shiny thing for those that demand it.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 01 Jul 2012 09:07 PM PDT The global economy led by Europe and China continues its downward path. Will the US follow? First let's take a look at China. Markit reports China Manufacturing PMI Declines 8th Consecutive Month. Key pointsChina PMI vs. Shanghai Stock Index The following charts show an interesting story of unsustainable growth and over-exuberance by China cheerleaders nearly everywhere. China PMI $SSEC Shanghai Stock Index Decoupling Review Notice the bubble in 2007. That's when all sorts of ridiculous decoupling theories, US hyperinflation scenarios, US treasury crash scenarios, crude is going to $200, Natural Gas is going to $40, and other nonsensical ideas came out of the woodwork, many in book form, some still persisting to this day. Instead, the reverse happened! It was the US that decoupled from the global economy. Moreover, China has been exposed for the malinvestment bubble that it is. Now, in 2012, nearly everyone but the die-hard hyperinflationists thinks the US will decouple from the global economy. This reverse-decoupling idea is primarily based on the absurd belief the Fed will not let the economy or the stock market down (when the Fed is in fact not in control). For further discussion, please see Is There a Limit on Central Bank's Ability to Inflate? The debate on the Fed will remain, but the facts show that I disagreed with decoupling in 2007 and I disagree with reverse-decoupling theories now. Please see 12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly) for detailed rationale. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Email From Lead Analyst at EIA on Petroleum Usage Posted: 01 Jul 2012 11:27 AM PDT In response to my post 3-Month Petroleum Usage Chart for March, April, May Shows 14 Years of Supply Demand Growth has Vanished (with charts from Tim Wallace) I received a nice email from James Beck, Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Status Report Team, Energy Information Administration (EIA). Hello Mike and TimJet Fuel and Propane In a follow-up email I asked about jet fuel and received this response. Hello MishMonthly Delays The reason Tim Wallace uses weekly data is one of timeliness. There are long delays in waiting for monthly stats. It is nice to see that the monthly charts below confirm what Tim Wallace has been saying. Here are the monthly charts from James Beck. Because of seasonal variations, the proper comparison in each of the charts below is red-dot to red-dot. Total Petroleum Usage Diesel and Heating Oil Gasoline Jet Fuel Propane Thanks James and Tim! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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This is cruel marketing.
If you're like me, you've gotten dozens of emails over the last week about a promotion that Chase and Living Social are running in which they're promising local businesses that work within their community a chance to win a grant for $250,000. The emails almost always have the line,
All we need is a vote from 250 kind friends and supporters like you.
Here's why it's doubly dangerous. First, clearly the organization doesn't actually get a grant in exchange for only getting 250 online votes. Hey, 250 online votes won't even get you a pack of chewing gum these days. No, all the votes do is make you eligible to apply for the grant. And yet the organization, perhaps a worthy one, is now spamming thousands of people offering this sliver of hope, all in rush to get 250 votes, even though the chances that anything will happen are perilously close to zero. There are only 12 grants available in total. That's pitiful. Hopes raised, hopes dashed.
And then, for the small businesses, the ones who get through this hurdle and then get through the hurdle of the application, once again, hopes raised, hopes dashed.
There's nothing wrong with competitions and difficult to achieve goals. Nothing wrong with making it hard to get into Brown or get a Gates Foundation grant. The dangerous mistake is making the organizations (and then their core supporters) think it's likely, or easy. You end up not only burning the brand of Living Social and Chase (who probably had good intentions) but by extension, hurting the brand and permission relationships of the very organizations you're trying to help. Peter and the wolf... the villagers aren't going to come next time.
Pepsi did the same thing with charities last year, and my concern is the same: when you activate your supporters, you need a clear path to victory, not a wild goose chase.
One significant way around this: have the outbound messages of the tribe be about more than the grant. Figure out how putting in the effort to help your local organization actually strengthens ties, instead of weakening them. The pursuit could be even better than the prize if you establish the right groundwork.
To be really clear: it's harder to cut through the clutter than ever before, but just because a gimmick is going to cut through the clutter doesn't mean you should use it. It doesn't pay to make a lot of noise if that noise ends up hurting you in the long run.
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Can Greece Buy Freedom From Debt For a Mere €3,000 Per Person? Posted: 30 Jun 2012 08:08 PM PDT Greek shipping heir Peter Nomikos has a plan wipe out Greek debt. His idea is to buy all the Greek bonds then forgive the debt. Given that Greek bonds sell for 12 cents on the dollar, on the surface his plan may seem like a reasonable idea. First let's consider the idea, then potential problems. Der Spiegel interviews Peter Nomikos who says 'For a Donation of 3,000 Euros, Every Greek Can Buy Freedom' Greek shipping heir Peter Nomikos has taken matters into his own hands. While EU leaders wrangle for a solution to Greece's problems, Nomikos started a non-profit to wipe out the country's debt. If all of his countrymen do their part, he tells SPIEGEL ONLINE, they will be able to shore up the country's finances.Problematical Math
I wish Peter Nomikos success, but point number 3 above suggests severe consequences. Points 1, 2, and 4 suggest that it will not happen in the first place, making point number 3 moot. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 30 Jun 2012 10:58 AM PDT In the wake of a huge market reaction on Friday, it's interesting to see how the headlines read other places, especially Spain. Here is one such viewpoint by El Confidencial: Government 'sacrificed' Bank of Spain in Exchange for Financial Sector Bailout The clearest conclusion to the European Agreement made by Spain and Italy is that our government has preferred to sacrifice the sovereignty of the banking supervision enjoyed by the Bank of Spain in exchange for the bailout of the sector does not compute as debt or deficit and that The European rescue fund to buy Spanish debt when things get as ugly as this week. However, many unknowns are open, including the timing of the operation. Therefore, the FROB who will initially inject capital to entities that need it in September, with funds from European loan subsequently permutarán MEDE the money.ESM Agreement Raises More Questions Than Answers The above article certainly raises a lot of questions. Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times also says More questions than answers after the summit In the wake of yet another summit, we need to ask our usual question: is this the eurozone's game changer?Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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