marți, 10 iulie 2012

Seth's Blog : Happy birthday, Mr. Tesla

Happy birthday, Mr. Tesla

SimonbarsinisterHe invented the foundational science that led to radio, the AC motor and dozens of other concepts that enable us to live modern lives. He foresaw the energy shortage and global warming. He was also the model for the mad scientist in every bad movie ever made.

He was ridiculed, marginalized and ignored. When the media or the experts or the public didn't know what to do with the progress he pointed to, they shunned the messenger.

Tunis Craven, head of the FCC, said, "There is practically no chance that communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States." Craven said this three years before satellites were used to bring the Olympics to the US from Japan.

Craven or Tesla? I think it's pretty easy to pick a role model.



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luni, 9 iulie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Scranton Mayor Slashes All Public Worker Wages to $7.25 per Hour, Including Police, Fire, His Own; City Effectively Bankrupt

Posted: 09 Jul 2012 03:23 PM PDT

Scranton, Pennsylvania's, the state's sixth-most-populous city (population of 76,089 in 2010 census), is down to its last $5,000 and has no way to pay salaries.

The mayor wants an immediate tax hike of 29% and 78% over three years. In every sense of the word, Scranton is bankrupt.

NPR reports Scranton's Public Workers Now Paid Minimum Wage.
The city of Scranton, Pa., sent out paychecks to its employees Friday, like it does every two weeks. But this time the checks were much smaller than usual. Mayor Chris Doherty has reduced everyone's pay — including his own — to the state's minimum wage: $7.25 an hour.

Doherty says his city has run out of money.

Doherty wants to raise taxes to fill a $16.8-million gap. The city council wants to take a different approach and borrow money. City council members did not respond to NPR's requests to discuss the dispute.

After paying workers Friday, the city had only about $5,000 left in the bank. More money flowed into city accounts that day, but it was still not enough to pay the $1 million the city still owes to its nearly 400 employees.

The firefighters' union, along with the police and public works unions, have taken the city to court. Lackawanna County Judge Michael Barrasse issued an injunction, essentially agreeing with the unions that the city was breaking the law, but Doherty says he doesn't have another choice. Despite the injunction, he had the city send out paychecks based on minimum wage.

The unions plan to be back in court first thing Monday morning to ask the judge to hold Doherty in contempt.

There's been no love lost between Doherty and the public employee unions because of this battle; they've already spent the past decade in a legal dispute over pay that went all the way to the state supreme court. Both sides come to this latest battle with plenty of baggage and hard feelings. But with nearly 400 city workers receiving a fraction of the pay they typically get, pressure is building to resolve the issue soon.
Scranton Mayor Slashes City Workers' Pay

Filling in a few more details, IBT reports Scranton Mayor Slashes City Workers' Pay To Minimum Wage
Doherty wants to raise taxes by 29 percent immediately and by as much as 78 percent over the next three years, while the council wants the city to borrow money. The Scranton Times-Tribune reported there's no way for the city to take out a loan because it is unable to show it is capable of paying it back.

"I'm trying to do the best I can with the limited amount of funds that I have," Doherty told NPR. "I want the employees to get paid. Our people work hard -- our police and fire -- I just don't have enough money, and I can't print it in the basement."

Since the political firestorm erupted, Scranton Police Chief Dan Duffy has stepped down from his position, although he claimed his decision has nothing to do with the financial mess the city finds itself in, according to the Times Leader.

The unions see the mayor's pay slash as a bullying technique designed to force the city council to adopt his tax increases.
City Effectively Bankrupt

It should be perfectly obvious to every soul on the planet that Scranton is bankrupt. Tax hikes are not the answer. The solution is filing bankruptcy with the hope of killing public union wages and benefits.

However, inane rules in Pennsylvania prohibit cities from filing bankruptcy without state approval.

On October 12, 2011 I reported Pennsylvania State Capital Files for Bankruptcy

Unfortunately, City of Harrisburg chapter 9 bankruptcy dismissed
The US Bankruptcy Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania has dismissed the bankruptcy petition filed on behalf of the City of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, finding that the city failed to meet eligibility requirements under the Bankruptcy Code to be a chapter 9 debtor.

The dismissal of Harrisburg's petition, in November 2011, highlights the US constitutional considerations in municipal bankruptcy cases and the Bankruptcy Code's strict requirement for a municipality to have express state authorization to become a chapter 9 debtor.
Inept city management, with public union wages and benefits at the heart of it, killed Scranton.

The city is bankrupt. Period. Will the state once again deny the obvious?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Negative Yields In France For First Time, Record Negative Rates in Germany; 10-Year Yield Back Above 7% in Spain, Above 6% in Italy

Posted: 09 Jul 2012 10:52 AM PDT

Add France to the list of eurozone countries with negative short-term interest rates. The Wall Street Journal reports France Joins Germany to Sell T-Bills At Negative Yield
France joined a handful of euro-zone countries Monday in selling short-term debt at negative interest rates as investors seek alternatives to expensive German and Dutch debt.

The negative yield at Monday's German auction, the lowest on record in this maturity segment, means that investors effectively pay the German state for the privilege of holding its debt.

The Dutch State Treasury Agency had already sold Treasury Certificates, or short-term debt, at negative yields. Now the French government is doing so as well.
Select Yields From WSJ

  • Germany: Germany sold 3.290 billion euros of six-month Treasury bills, known as Bubills, at an average yield of -0.0344%. The record lows was previously -0.0122% seen at an auction Jan. 9.
  •  
  • France: France sold EUR 3.917 billion of 13-week Treasury bills at an average yield of -0.005%, down from 0.048% a week ago, and it sold EUR 1.993 billion of 24-week Treasury bills at an average yield of -0.006%, down from 0.096% last week.

Supposedly, French yields of -.005% are a veritable "bargain" compared to German yields at -.0344%

Unforeseen Consequences

The Journal notes "Several large money-market funds restricted or closed their European funds to new investments after the ECB cut the deposit rate to zero, as they have struggled to provide returns to investors. This emphasizes the unforeseen effects of the extreme monetary policy actions that are currently being carried out by the ECB," said Rabobank's fixed-income strategists.

Unforeseen or Ignored?

It should be easy to foresee such effects.

In the US, the seen effects are the impacts of low rates for those on fixed income. In addition, record low rates makes it impossible for pension plans to meet their over-optimistic goals of 8% annualized returns when interest rates are near zero.

Bernanke has to understand these things. If so, he simply chooses to ignore them for the benefit of banks over everyone else. What he fails to understand is he is doing no one any favors!

10-Year Yield Back Above 7% in Spain, Above 6% in Italy

As short-term yields plunge in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, long-term yields are soaring elsewhere in Europe.

Yield on 10-Year Spanish Government Bond closed at 7.062%

Yield on 10-Year Italian Government Bond closed at 6.015%

As I have repeatedly said, nothing has been solved. It took less than a week this time for yields to head back North.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Global Collapse In Auto Sales Coming Up

Posted: 09 Jul 2012 09:26 AM PDT

In response to my post Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived I received a couple of interesting emails from readers, one from the US, the other from an employee of the world's largest automotive parts manufacturer.

Small US Distributor Responds
Dear Mish,

I am a small distributor and sell mostly to online stores. In the past 3 weeks, our business has dropped off a cliff.

Our retail store that usually has 5 orders a day, has had 1 in the past week. I also have a customer with an Amazon store and he has gone from 10 orders a day to a total of 1 order all this week.

Moreover, I have spoken with a number of other distributors and they are all begging for business. There is a dead silence in the buyers right now.

Something is definitely happening and it isn't good. The numbers are not showing the real depth of this. I think we may see them fall off hard in the next 90 days.

Tom
Employee of German Manufacturer Robert Bosch Responds
Hi Mish,

Love your blog. I've written before.

I work for Robert Bosch in Germany. We make diesel injectors for common rail systems (truck and passenger car).

Our sales forecasts are again down and there is a huge crunch now to save money to try to squeeze out a profit at the end of the year. Sales are down 10% to business plan so they are looking for every dime right now.

The retiring CEO (Ferhnback...a good man) wishes for a "black 0" at the end of the year. However, I doubt that will happen.

Numerous older people have been given incentives to leave the company before official retirement age.

There are numerous closure days still planned. I would guess we can expect more.

So what you are seeing in the PMI is reality. I do not see or hear similar hints in the rest of the German economy yet......

Regards,

Name Withheld by Mish
Notes About Bosch

Wikipedia has these details about Robert Bosch.
Robert Bosch GmbH (commonly known as Bosch) is a German multinational engineering and electronics company headquartered in Gerlingen, near Stuttgart. It is the world's largest supplier of automotive components.

Bosch's core products are automotive components (including brakes, controls, electrical drives, electronics, fuel systems, generators, starter motors and steering systems), industrial products (including drives and controls, packaging technology and solar panels) and consumer goods and building products (including household appliances, power tools, security systems and thermotechnology).

Bosch has more than 350 subsidiaries across over 60 countries and its products are sold in around 150 countries. Bosch employs around 303,000 people and had revenues of approximately €51.4 billion in 2011. In 2010 it invested around €3.8 billion in research and development and applied for over 3,800 patents worldwide. In 2009 Bosch was the leader in terms of numbers of patents at the German Patent and Trade Mark Office (GPTO) with 3,213 patents.
Global Auto Sales Collapse On The Way

Anecdotes are personal by definition, and thus cannot tell the full story.

However, anecdotal evidence is in sync with a collapse in new manufacturing orders globally as noted in Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived (same as link at top, repeated for convenience).

For more details on the US specifically, please see US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction

Given the nature of Bosh's business, the reported slowdown in that business, and a plunging collapse in new manufacturing orders virtually everywhere, a collapse in global automobile sales is coming.

Perhaps there is one more channel-stuffing rise in sales coming up in the US (sales are reported when cars are delivered to dealers, not when consumers buy them), but if so, it will be the last big hurrah. 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Seth's Blog : Announcing a small-group college seminar (and a quick survey)

Announcing a small-group college seminar (and a quick survey)

If you have ever considered coming to one of my events, I'd appreciate it if you would take this quick two-question survey.

And, if you're a full-time college student, or you know someone who might benefit from an intensive three-day seminar in my office (it's a gift from me, there's no charge to attend), please share this with them. The deadline for applications is in just a few days, so hurry and apply if you're interested.

Thanks!



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Ask an expert about refinancing

The White House Monday, July 9, 2012
 

Ask an expert about refinancing

As we've been talking about President Obama's plan to make it easier for responsible homeowners to refinance, we've heard many different questions about the process.

So we've set up a special online event with the U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Shaun Donovan, to answer your questions and go over the issue in detail.

This Thursday at 3:15 p.m. EDT, Secretary Donovan will participate in a live video conference with homeowners from across the country.

RSVP to the conversation with Secretary Donovan -- and we'll send you a reminder before the event.

To get the conversation started, we sat down with Secretary Donovan and asked him to answer one of the most popular questions we've received -- how will cutting red tape for responsible homeowners help the economy at large?

So take a minute to watch his answer, RSVP for the conversation with the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and find out how to submit your questions:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/hangout-rsvp

Watch the video

Also, please pass along this invite to other folks you know who may be interested in refinancing and housing generally. It's important to make sure everyone has the facts about this important issue.

Don't forget to tune in this Thursday at 3:15 p.m. EDT.

Stay Connected

 

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GTD for SEOs - Simple Tools to Get More Done

GTD for SEOs - Simple Tools to Get More Done


GTD for SEOs - Simple Tools to Get More Done

Posted: 08 Jul 2012 07:57 PM PDT

Posted by CraigBradford

I want to keep this post as short and actionable as possible; do you have any tools that do just one thing really well? You know the kind I mean, those plugins and hack projects that you may only use once a year but when you do use them, you really appreciate them.

I’ve gathered a bunch of these (some I use everyday) and I want to share them with the community. Could I ask a favour though? If you have similar tricks, hacks, plugins or bookmarklets, could you leave a comment and share it with everyone? This could then turn this average list into an epic list that’s been built by the SEOmoz community and we can all come back to and reference in the future. Do we have a deal? Ok great, first things first though, a bit of a disclaimer; a lot of the tips below you may have heard of before, but if everyone who reads this post gets just one or two actionable tips I think it’s been worthwhile.

Let me know your favourites and don’t forget to share your tools in the comments.

Learn to Scrape - install Scraper for Chrome

Knowing how to use things like import XML can be a massive time saver but there’s a learning curve to get really good at it. This plugin for Chrome is a great tool to quickly scrape any elements you want and automatically put them into a Google doc. I use this a lot for scraping lists of websites or headings on a page. It’s super simple to use, just right click on what you want to scrape and off you go. Get it here

 

Use Text to Columns for extracting Root Domains 

Ever have a list of backlink URLs that you just want to extract the root domain from? The Excel text to columns feature makes this easy.

Select the column that has the URLs, go to “Data” in the menu and click on the text to columns button as shown below.

Instead of the default tab option select the custom option and add a “/”. Click finish and you’ll have a list of the root domains. I highly recommend going through the Distilled Excel for SEO guide if you haven’t already which shows you how to do this and more.

Send to Kindle bookmarklet - Keep up to date on all the latest SEO news

If you have a kindle you’ll love this plugin that lets you send any webpage you are reading to your Kindle. I use this to help keep up to date on all the latest SEO news. Before leaving the office I’ll visit a few of my favourite SEO blogs and send a bunch of posts to my Kindle for reading on the tube.

Install AJ Kohns Rich Snippet Testing Bookmarklet

Want test rich snippet markup? This bookmarklet form AJ Kohn lets you quickly use the Google rich snippets testing tool.

Install Undo send Email

I can’t tell how many times this tool has saved me. If you use gmail go into the labs section and enable the undo send feature. See here for more details

Categorise URLs or Keywords using Filters and Functions

The following formula will allow you to search for a letter word or number within a string:

=if(isnumber(find("filtertext",A1)),"Yes","No")

Combined with filters, this can be really useful for categorising keyword groups, type of links or site structures. Just replace the “filtertext” with whatever you want to look for.

Instantly tell if a page has a rel=“canonical” tag on it.

I love this tool; Install this plugin and if you are on a page that has a canonical tag on it, a little blue icon will show up in the address bar as shown below: 

Quickly take and share Screenshots and Video using Jing

Jing is the tool I used to take and annotate all of the screenshots for this blog post. It’s a free desk tool that allows you to instantly take a screenshot or short video and share it with colleagues. When you click copy, it uploads then automatically copies the sharable url to your clipboard meaning you just need to paste the link to wherever or whoever you want to share it with. Get it now.

URLOpener.com

I use this all the time when checking guest post or press coverage. Rather than going to each website one by one, I copy all the URLs, dump them into this tool and press go. Each site will then be opened in a new tab.

Google Cache Bookmarklet

Add the following code as a bookmarklet to quickly check the Google cache of the page you are on:

javascript:location.href='http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:'+location.href

 

Export More Keywords in GA

The maximum number of keywords (or anything else) you can view or export in Google Analytics is 500 but you can change this by editing the URL in the address bar. When you select 500, the URL will end in: 

Count%3D500/

It’s no surprise that the 500 is the number of keywords, just change that to whatever number you want and hit export.

Turn on "Send and Archive" in Gmail

The more I use this tool the more I love it. This does exactly as you would think, it adds a send and archive button next to the regular send button making clearing out your inbox that little bit faster. This is another labs feature which you can read about here.

Use Ubersuggest for quick and dirty Keyword Research

This is the fastest way I know to get some quick and dirty long-tail keyword research. If you’ve never used it before, Ubersuggest basically makes use of the Google suggest feature. You input a word and it will enter a letter in front of it to give you a list of hundreds of new combinations, you can then export these, dump them into the Google keyword tool to get search volume. There are normally one or two gems in there.

That's it for now, thanks for reading and I look forward to reading the comments, give me a shout on twitter if you have any questions: @CraigBradford


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