marți, 7 august 2012

Seth's Blog : Long-term manipulation is extremely difficult

Long-term manipulation is extremely difficult

In the short run, it's easy.

It's easy to fool someone or lie to them or give them what they think they want. It's easy to write a great block of copy, to sell on credit, to grab the attention of the mob.

Not so easy: to build mutually profitable long-term relationships that lead to satisfaction, trust and work worth doing.

Lincoln was right about fooling people, but along the way we often forget that while trickery is easy, the longer path of keeping your promises is far more satisfying and stable.



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luni, 6 august 2012

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


The Greatest Books of All Time [Infographic]

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 12:44 PM PDT

When 125 great writers were asked which authors had earned their homage, they had plenty of suggestions; in fact, enough to fill the book The Top Ten: Writers Pick Their Favorite Books. Since we don't have space to feature all 544 works mentioned, we'll stick to this short and sweet infographic from Flavorwire highlighting the best of the best.

Click on Image to Enlarge.


President Obama on the Shooting in Wisconsin

The White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, August 6, 2012

 

President Obama on the Shooting in Wisconsin

In response to yesterday's shooting in Oak Creek, Wisconsin, President Obama released this statement:

Michelle and I were deeply saddened to learn of the shooting that tragically took so many lives in Wisconsin. At this difficult time, the people of Oak Creek must know that the American people have them in our thoughts and prayers, and our hearts go out to the families and friends of those who were killed and wounded. My Administration will provide whatever support is necessary to the officials who are responding to this tragic shooting and moving forward with an investigation. As we mourn this loss which took place at a house of worship, we are reminded how much our country has been enriched by Sikhs, who are a part of our broader American family.

Readout of the President's Calls on the Wisconsin Shooting

At 4:30PM EDT [on Sunday], the President convened a call with FBI Director Bob Mueller, Chief of Staff Jack Lew, and Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan to receive an update on the tragic shooting in Oak Creek, Wisconsin. Following that briefing, the President called Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Oak Creek Mayor Steve Scaffidi and trustee of the Sikh Temple Charanjeet Singh to express his condolences for the lives lost and his concern for those who were injured.

During the briefing, the President was informed that the situation at the Sikh Temple was under control and that the lone gunmen was killed by an Oak Creek police officer.  The President also was updated on the condition of some of the victims of the attack, and he directed that the federal government assist as appropriate in the investigation into the shooting. The President said that he wanted to make sure that as we denounce this senseless act of violence we also underscore how much our country has been enriched by our Sikh Community, who are an integral part of our broader American family.

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Generate Great Ideas by Connecting with Customers

Generate Great Ideas by Connecting with Customers


Generate Great Ideas by Connecting with Customers

Posted: 05 Aug 2012 07:53 PM PDT

Posted by Kate Morris

simple business ideasThe simplest ideas can be the best link building ideas. If you spend a few hours really thinking like your customers, stop thinking about competitors, and stop being yourself (executive, SEO, etc.), there are a number of ideas out there that can turn into multichannel success stories for your marketing program. This inspiration came from my time spent in marketing classes.

Who here took a marketing class in school? *waits for hands*

If you were a marketing undergrad like myself, you want to shoot the next person that says "pick a company and build a marketing plan for them." For those of you that were spared the annoyance of hearing about Starbucks year after year, count yourself lucky. (Don't get me wrong, I love Starbucks, check my credit card statement.)

Marketing students are well versed on how to develop out of the box ideas for companies all over the world. Know why? They don't have to implement any of them! It is amazing how everyday politics and budgets can hinder the ability to brainstorm really good ideas.

Creating a marketing plan out of the blue is something everyone should try. It is truly amazing how many great, yet simple ideas come out of starting fresh and thinking not as an employee, but as an outsider. The key is getting out of your own head to generate fresh ideas.

Forget Yourself and Find Them

The first step is to get out of the office. For consumer facing industries, it's time to go find your customers. If you have the ability to visit a retail location, do that. You don't need hundreds of customers, you just need a few. If you are an online retailer, look up some of your clients and ask if you can visit them. Find real people and ask for 15 minutes to chat with each of them.

No, I am not kidding. This might be difficult, but it's worth the time.

If you are not a retailer (more B2B), do as the online retailer does and look up your clients to go visit a few. Flying across the country does not work for many businesses, so you'll need to get creative. If all else fails and all of your customers are far away, ask to Skype chat with a few.

You need to enter their world. Don't come to the meeting with questions prepared. Don't take more than the time they give you, and try to be brief. Simply chat with them about their day. Ask them how their life is and how your company fits in. You don't want company specific feedback, you just want to see how you fit into their life and what is on their mind at the moment. Really get to know them.

Take notes. Give them a $5 giftcard and sincerely thank them for their business.

(PS: you probably have a customer for life now)

Get Outside of Your Box

Now that you are in the mind set of your customers, don't go back to work. (Believe me, your boss will understand when they see these ideas.) Instead, find one of those co-working places in major cities. If you aren't in a major city, visit somewhere that isn't home or work. It can be a coffee shop, but try to pick somewhere you can be creative and productive for a few hours. If that means the local library or a friend's office, then cool.

Now, sit down and think like your customers. What would they say your marketing plan should be? What makes your company/client the place to go to for your products/services? You want to be the favorite place your customers go online and offline when they need something related to what you do. How do you make your company that important?

Don't be you, be your customer. What would you want done differently in your company? Find a whiteboard, a notebook, a computer, or similar. Write down everything that comes to mind.

Most Important: Answer Without Abandon

Take those questions and just answer. Don't think about what is plausible. Don't consider what other people will say. You want the ideas that you don't have to implement, which is what makes this exercise fun and awesome. Don't consider cost for ideas, just get them all out there. Your only concern should be how to make your customer happy. Don't think about selling them more, getting links, shares, or email sign ups. Just make them love you.

Do they already love you? Woo! Now, how do you get more people to love you?

Other questions to ask yourself if you are stuck include:

  • Where would potential customers go to find out about our products or services?
  • How do they know they need us?
  • How can we solve their problem faster and more efficiently for THEM? (Stop thinking about shipping and costs, this is about them.)
  • How do we make ourselves available to them whenever they need us?
  • What can we do to make them LOVE us?

The Result: Great Ideas

The above is a brainstorm that turned into a marketing plan for Dick's Drive-In in Seattle. The key take-aways were to have a spokesperson, "Dick," that had a van he drove around in to drum up love and business. If any of you have Uber in your city, think the ice cream truck promotion. They would also give away t-shirts in addition to yummy deluxe burgers. By the time these guys were done, everyone in that room was hungry.

The kicker here is that Dick's is not a client at Distilled. They a well-loved local eatery. Everyone knows who they are and how to get a yummy burger. They probably don't need help online, but they can get help with this 30 minute brainstorm and marketing plan by people who do not work for them. And the idea was fantastic. I was not a part of this team, but I can only imagine the applications.

Ahem, Links?

I mentioned that these brainstorms can turn into major successes for you, including link building ideas. I can't promise that every idea you come up with will result in killer link building, but I have faith that if these ideas are actually customer focused and impactful, any number of them can get the attention of the media and make your customers want to share your business with their friends.

More specifically, let's use the ideas above for Dick's Drive In.

  • Spokesperson "Dick"
    Depending on the success of the branding and the events around Dick, this could mean interviews (links) and social shares. If developed right, a meme could develop around a particularly funny photo with captions.
  • Van with Slogan "Dick, the man with the Van"
    This has Reddit written all over it. There are some possible reputation issues with families and what a van might mean to parents (think abduction vans), but you get little to no reward without some risk. This would do great with the festivals in Seattle and online. Think about how many people would tweet and share photos with Dick and the Van? All of these mentions and shares can have a positive impact on your search metrics. And Redditors would be all over talking about this promotion.
  • T-Shirts
    Depending on the slogan, the shirts could be sold on the website. If good enough, they could drive people to the site via friends. How many times have you asked or been asked about an awesome shirt? The shirts themselves can be link bait. Check out this post from Shoemoney linking to Acquisio for the fact they had an awesome shirt.

What are the great ideas you have had in the past to grow your business? I'd love to hear them and maybe I can give some ideas of how I would turn them into link building ideas.


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Seth's Blog : There isn't one shark

There isn't one shark

Happy Days is famous for jumping the shark. In an episode near the end of their run, the writers ran out of ideas and want so far to please the masses that they wrote a script in which Fonzie, wearing a leather jacket, rode water skis up a ramp and over a shark.

Since then, the kind of people who like to say, "no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded," are happy to point out when a popular organization jumps the shark.

The thing is, there isn't one shark. There's your shark, my shark and their shark. The masses have a different shark than the early adopters do.

For some, Apple has already jumped the shark. A new upgrade or a new TV commercial might be a step too far, and they walk away, sad that yet another cutting edge organization has succumbed to mass mediocrity. For others, they're just feeling safe enough to take a shot, and the shark is nowhere in sight.

The insight is to have the empathy not to confuse your shark with the shark of the kind of person you're hoping to delight. Choose your customers, choose their shark.



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duminică, 5 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Four Different Viewpoints on Employment; Reflections on Biased Reporting

Posted: 05 Aug 2012 10:26 PM PDT

The latest jobs report showing a Gain of 163,000 on the Establishment Survey, But a Loss of 195,000 Jobs on the Household Survey got me to thinking about trends in employment.

Much depends on your frame of reference. I can easily make numbers look good or bad, depending on how I want to present them.

click on any chart for sharper image

Civilian Employment Since 2011 



That certainly looks quite robust, but is that the real sustainable trend?
Here is another view.

Civilian Employment Since 2007




Which trendline is correct?

Civilian Employment Since 2007 - Different Perspective



If I want to emphasize how poor the recovery has been, I just might use the above view.

Notice that actual employment in 2008 was over 146 million. Employment fell to 138 million and has only taken back half of previous losses, making this the worst recovery on record.

Civilian Employment Since 2011  



Returning to the first chart, I just may want to emphasize that a trend change may be in the works.

Indeed, I do think that is the case based on collapsing new orders. I have made the case numerous times.


Reflections on Biased Reporting

The point of this post is not about trend changes, it is about presentation.

I interpret the news and that introduces bias.

Indeed, any commentary whatsoever about the news, by anyone, anywhere, anytime, introduces bias (intentional or not). The only way to not introduce bias is to present data with no comments, no trendlines, and no anecdotes.

Who would read Calculated Risk, Big Picture, Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, Automatic Earth, Acting Man, Advisor Perspectives, Chris Martenson, or any other site if they did not offer opinions?

What a dull blogging world it would be without opinions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Zombified Cities Roundup: Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead; Financial Urgency in Miami; Oakland Pension Time Bomb; How Pensions Crashed Stockton and San Bernardino

Posted: 05 Aug 2012 09:52 AM PDT

Space does not permit a complete discussion of zombified cities. Such a list would be in the many hundreds. Rather this post is about four cities in recent news that are among the walking dead. One is even a dumping ground for the dead.

Fourth Financial Urgency in Miami in Four years

The Huffington Post reports Miami Declares Financial Urgency For Fourth Year In A Row
Miami City Manager Johnny Martinez declared a state of financial urgency Friday for the fourth year in a row.

The move gives the city commission authority to restructure its existing contracts with police, general employee, and fire unions.

City commissioners agreed to not hike taxes in a budget meeting Thursday night, but instead will look to close a budget gap of tens of millions through union concessions. The $485 million budget must be balanced by September.

"The unions are not cooperating with the process," Mayor Tomas Regalado told the Miami Herald. "We need to have a balanced budget."

Martinez said in a statement that the city will be contacting union representatives to start up two weeks of negotiations. The declaration of urgency has likely incensed police and fire officials; according to Reuters, the latter group argued before city officials Thursday night that their pay has been cut 35 percent in the last 3 years already.
Click on link for a video.

Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead

The Associated Press writes Vacant Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead.
From the street, the two decomposing bodies were nearly invisible, concealed in an overgrown lot alongside worn-out car tires and a moldy sofa. The teenagers had been shot, stripped to their underwear and left on a deserted block.

They were just the latest victims of foul play whose remains went undiscovered for days after being hidden deep inside Detroit's vast urban wilderness - a crumbling wasteland rarely visited by outsiders and infrequently patrolled by police.

Abandoned and neglected parts of the city are quickly becoming dumping grounds for the dead - at least a dozen bodies in 12 months' time. And authorities acknowledge there's little they can do.

The bodies have been purposely hidden or discarded in alleys, fields, vacant houses, abandoned garages and even a canal. Seven of the victims are believed to have been slain outside Detroit and then dumped within the city.

"Detroit is a dumping ground for a lot of stuff," said Margaret Dewar, professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Michigan. "There is no one to watch. There is no capacity to enforce laws about dumping. There is a perception you can dump and no one will report it."
How Pensions Crashed Stockton, San Bernardino

Bloomberg reports Police Chief's $204,000 Pension Shows How Cities Crashed
Stockton, California, Police Chief Tom Morris was supposed to bring stability to law enforcement when he was appointed to the job four years ago.

He lasted eight months and left the now-bankrupt city at age 52 with an annual pension that pays more than $204,000 -- the third of four chiefs who stayed in the position for less than three years and retired with an average of 92 percent of their final salaries.

San Bernardino, a city of 209,000 about 60 miles (100 kilometers) east of Los Angeles, is typical of the phenomenon. Its city council voted July 18 to approve an emergency bankruptcy filing, about six years after the panel unanimously lowered the retirement age for public-safety workers to 50 from 55.

The council acted in August 2006 even though Aon Plc, the city's risk-management consultant, had warned it that such a change would add millions of dollars to San Bernardino's long- term pension costs. In the fiscal year that ended in June, pensions consumed 13 percent of the city's general fund, up from 9 percent in fiscal 2007.

"I knew it was going to be costly in the long run," San Bernardino City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack said of the lower retirement age. "However, this city is one of the toughest to police. In order to attract and retain the kind of officers that it takes to police a city like this, that was a benefit that we had to negotiate."
Notice the complete ineptitude of  San Bernardino City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack. She was willing to bankrupt San Bernardino by making untenable pension promises to "attract and retain" police officers. Did it work?

Pension Time Bomb Explodes in Oakland

The San Francisco Chronicle reports Oakland's financial time bomb: pensions
It was 1976 when the city of Oakland realized it had a major problem on its hands: A pension created 25 years earlier to benefit police officers, firefighters and their widows was proving too costly to afford.

So the city closed the plan to new employees and later passed a parcel tax to pay for the pension. Yet today, that pension remains the source of one of Oakland's biggest headaches.

It's a generous plan that awards its retirees and widows - who now number 1,086 - raises to match up to two-thirds of the pay of the current-day workforce. But the city's costs ballooned because it never adequately contributed to the pension fund, relied on borrowing for years to give itself holidays from pension payments and watched investments go south. The result of the borrowing is that the pension, known as the Police and Fire Retirement System, has cost Oakland taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars more than it should have. In 2010, City Auditor Courtney Ruby found Oakland spent $250 million more on the pension than it would have if the city had simply paid into the pension - and that was just for one of its bond deals.

Last month, the majority of the Oakland City Council, at the urging of Mayor Jean Quan's administration, voted to borrow money once again to cover the pension bill - $210 million in new pension bonds that will cost another $105 million in interest over the next 14 years. But the loan will allow the city to avoid paying for the pension from its general fund for four years. If the city hadn't borrowed the money, it would have been forced to take $38.5 million from its roughly $400 million general fund to pay for the pension this year. Such a move would have required deep cuts to city services, which already have taken a hit due to the slumping economy, state budget cuts and redevelopment shutdown.

Wipe out parks, libraries

"If we had to pay this money this year and the next couple of years, the cuts would imperil our Police Department as well as completely wipe out our libraries and parks," said Councilwoman Pat Kernighan. "In a few years, we're going to be in a better position to make the payments."
Complete Idiocy by Councilwoman Pat Kernighan

As stupid as the decision was by San Bernardino City Councilwoman (and it was incredibly stupid), the position of Oakland Councilwoman Pat Kernighan is much worse. Kernighan learned nothing from Stockton, San Bernardino, Miami, or Detroit.

Nor did Kernighan even learn anything from prior history in Oakland. Borrowing has already wrecked Oakland and this complete dunce wants to do more of it.

The only solution that has a chance is for Oakland to declare bankruptcy. Instead Kernighan voted to kick the can down the road one more time.

Oakland Headed for Bankruptcy

Oakland will not be in a better position in a few years. I confidently predict bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy is the only method cities can use to correct absurd pension promises made to police, fire, and teachers' unions.

Advice to Unions

My beef is not with those lowest on the totem pole and their small $15,000 pensions.
Instead, I propose those with the largest pensions should take the bulk of the hit.

Police Chief Tom Morris lasted 8 months and will now receive a $204,000 annual pension. Morris deserves nothing, zero.

My advice to unions is to negotiate with cities in advance of bankruptcy or some judge will come along and do something like slash pensions across the board by 50% as happened in Rhode Island.

Across the board compromises give those like Morris far more than they deserve at the expense of hundreds of workers getting pensions barely enough to live on.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


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