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duminică, 9 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Chicago Teachers Vote to Strike; 350,000 Kids Affected; 16% Raise Over 4 Years Not Good Enough; Strike of Choice; Roadblock to Reform
Japan's Revised GDP Growth Cut in Half; Current Account Surplus Down 41% to $8 Billion; Mathematical Impossibilities
Plenty of Jobs if You are "King of the Road"

Chicago Teachers Vote to Strike; 350,000 Kids Affected; 16% Raise Over 4 Years Not Good Enough; Strike of Choice; Roadblock to Reform

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 09:58 PM PDT

The average teacher in Chicago makes $76,000 a year for nine months of work. They were offered 16% salary increase spread over four years. Given the system has a $665 million deficit this year and a bigger one next year, I am wondering why there should be a raise at all.

Nonetheless, the New York Times reports With No Contract Deal by Deadline in Chicago, Teachers Will Strike.

"We do not want a strike," David J. Vitale, president of the Chicago Board of Education, said late Sunday as he left the negotiations, which he described as extraordinarily difficult and "perhaps the most unbelievable process that I've ever been through."

Union leaders said they had hoped not to walk away from their jobs, but they said they were left with little choice.

"This is a difficult decision and one we hoped we could have avoided," said Karen Lewis, president of the Chicago Teachers Union.

The political stakes now may be highest for Rahm Emanuel, the Democratic mayor in a city with deep union roots. He took office last year holding up the improvement of public schools as one of his top priorities, but now faces arduous political terrain certain to accompany Chicago's first public schools strike in 25 years.

Late Sunday, Mr. Emanuel told reporters that school district officials had presented a strong offer to the union, including what some officials described as what would amount to a 16 percent raise for many teachers over four years — and that only two minor issues remained. "This is totally unnecessary, it's avoidable and our kids do not deserve this," Mr. Emanuel said, describing the decision as "a strike of choice."

Strike of Choice

Every strike is a strike of choice. Moreover, given projected budget deficits and with pension plans even deeper in the hole, the 16% raise offer was actually far too generous.

The ideal approach by mayor Rahm Emanuel would look something like this.

Immediately fire all 25,000 teachers, disband the union, and kill defined benefit pension plans
Offer teachers their jobs back with a zero percent pay raise with three days to decide
For each day beyond three, the city would reduce its offer to teachers by $2,000 a day
Offer generous relocation expenses to those willing to come to Chicago to teach
Offer substitute teachers full-time jobs

It is time to break the back of the insidious grip public unions have on the state of Illinois. There is no better place than Chicago to start.

Illinois Policy Center Response

After writing the above, I received this email alert from John Tillman at the Illinois Policy center.

Dear Mike,
Now that Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis has announced that CTU will strike Monday morning, it is very clear: Children are not the top priority for teachers who belong to the Chicago Teachers Union. The two things that matter most to these teachers are money and avoiding accountability for poor performance.

Lewis and the CTU waited hours to announce the teacher walkout so they could hold a live press conference at the top of the 10 p.m. news hour. This focus on press impact rather than the impact on children's and parents' lives should once and for all tell Chicago Public School negotiators and Mayor Emanuel this: The time is now for the transformative reforms the children and parents need. The Mayor and CPS should pull all offers from the table and reset the negotiations.

The fiscal reality is that Chicago Public Schools are broke. CPS will be draining cash reserves this year just to stay afloat, and will be $1 billion in the red next school year. The 30 percent raise CTU originally asked for is out of the question, and so are other double-digit raises that CTU has demanded. Average teacher pay in Chicago is already at $71,000 without benefits, while the average Chicagoan makes only $30,203 and the unemployment rate in the city is nearly 11 percent.

The reality facing students is much more grim. Four out of 10 children who enter a CPS high school will not graduate. That's why the focus of these negotiations should be on reforms that empower parents rather than perpetuating a broken system. Monday morning, more than 80,000 kids in Chicago will show up to be taught in charter schools or independent private schools, and those teachers will be showing up to work – unlike the teachers who belong to the CTU. These schools have something in common that is different from those CPS schools that will not operate tomorrow: the CTU is not the monopoly provider of labor to those schools.

At minimum, CPS must put the option of merit pay back on the table. Chicago cannot be a place where bad teachers are protected at the expense of great teachers who deserve to be recognized and rewarded. And Chicago must allow for more educational competition. As Milton Friedman said, "The only solution is to break the monopoly, introduce competition and give the customers alternatives." By expanding the number of charter schools and establishing opportunity scholarships, we can begin to chip away at the monopoly that the Chicago Teachers Union has over the city's educational system. We must empower parents to choose what is best for their children, instead of letting Karen Lewis decide when kids can and cannot learn.
John Tillman
CEO

Roadblock to Reform

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Japan's Revised GDP Growth Cut in Half; Current Account Surplus Down 41% to $8 Billion; Mathematical Impossibilities

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 06:32 PM PDT

Revised estimates of Japan's growth have been cut in half, from 1.4% to .7%. More importantly, Japan has a small but shrinking current account surplus (in spite of running a trade deficit for some time).

Once the current account surplus vanishes, and I believe it will, Japan will become somewhat dependent on foreigners to handle its budget deficit. Good luck with that at 0% interest rates.

Please consider Japan Halves Growth Estimate for Past Quarter to Annual 0.7%.

Japan's economy expanded in the second quarter at half the pace the government initially estimated, underscoring the risk of a contraction as Europe's debt crisis caps exports.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.7 percent in the three months through June, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, less than a preliminary calculation of 1.4 percent. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a revised 1 percent gain. The current-account surplus fell 41 percent from a year earlier to 625.4 billion yen ($8 billion) in July, a finance ministry report showed.

Gridlock in parliament may limit fiscal stimulus just as Japan's expansion is restrained by weakness in global demand, strength in the yen, and the winding down of car-purchase subsidies. A slowdown in Asia may further curtail exports and add to pressure for monetary easing after Chinese data yesterday suggested the region's biggest economy is losing steam.

Case For Stimulus?

I am amused by a Reuters report that says Japan Q2 GDP revised down, builds case for stimulus

In a sign of slackening foreign demand for Japanese goods caused by the euro zone debt crisis and China's slowdown, the July current account surplus came 40.6 percent below year-ago levels, reflecting a drop in exports.

However, due to a slower rise in imports, the fall in the surplus to 625.4 billion yen ($8 billion) was less pronounced than the forecast 56.8 percent drop to 455.0 billion.

Should the economy require more fiscal stimulus, the policy response could be delayed as policy making has ground to a halt due to a stand-off between the ruling and opposition parties.

Mathematical Impossibilities

Notice the absurd reliance on stimulus, in spite of a shocking amount of debt, exceeding 200% of GDP.

Moreover, the idea of fiscal stimulus is actually preposterous given the government wants to hike taxes to do something about the deficit and mammoth amount of debt.

Japan wants to do two things at once and it is mathematically impossible.

Tax hikes are certainly not going to stimulate a thing, and on August 10, Japan Parliament Passed Sales-Tax Increase doubling the nation's sales tax by 2015 as a step toward fiscal reconstruction.

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Plenty of Jobs if You are "King of the Road"

Posted: 09 Sep 2012 09:45 AM PDT

This post is about "Bobo". I wrote about Bobo before. He is in his early 50s, highly skilled, and willing to travel. In his latest email, he says "I'm down to one bag, one laptop, and one phone."

When he loses his job, he gets another within a few days.

King of the Road

My previous post was Bobo's Travels - Plenty of Job Offers for Skilled Engineers IF You Can be Like Bobo, written on December 2, 2011.

Here is an update from "Bobo" on what the last year was like.

Hello Mish

The US mining job I was at just ended. They gave me one hour to clean out my desk. That was nice. A power plant where I once worked only gave me 5 minutes.

Hire. Fire. Boom. Bust. Construction is a fast world.

Lucky for me I can get another job in a few days or so. This is the third consecutive time I've overlapped the next job with the severance package from the one before. Call it sweet revenge.

Last year I worked for 3 companies, in 2 countries, and 5 states. This year, so far, I worked in 2 countries and 3 states.

There is plenty of work, but my lifestyle is not for everyone. I have no kayaks, no canoes, no bikes, and no golf clubs.

I'm down to one bag, one laptop, and one phone.

Now I'm in Quebec. Round and round we go. Where I end up no one knows!

It took me exactly one day to get fired in the US and hired in Canada. I'm building a huge metal processing plant. I went from gold mining to copper processing.

I went from dusty cowboy sage brush to foggy misty pines. This must my northern limit. I'm absolutely freezing here. And it's only August.

This place is just scattered homes in the woods with a small village or two. The big city has a population of 50,000 and is about two hours away. It is about 2/3 English, 1/3 pure French, with a sharp accent that's very difficult to understand. Regardless, it's too far for a daily commute.

At least all the locals are friendly.

The area is primarily green forests and a million lakes. I saw a moose wandering around this morning, 50 feet from my office window. Last night I had a face-to face encounter with one at 90 km per hr. It was dark, and the moose was running across the road as I drove by. I just missed it. Even this morning, I can still see that moose head staring at me.

Today is a cool, cloudy, misty, pouring, raining day. Now I know where all the lakes come from. I have turned up the heat already, every night. It's going to be a long winter.

I'm working 10 days on, 4 days off. Their travel desk seems pretty good. They want to book my next 3 trips out already. I can fly anywhere in the world for the 4 days, but 4 days in Europe doesn't seem worth it. South Beach Miami, though, is looking nicer and warmer all the time.

There are no apartments or hotels here. There is just a scattering of houses in the woods or cabins on a lake, and everyone is renting out rooms because of the construction boom. I rented a place for $500 a month, half what I paid in in the states. However, I now have to pay for a car, insurance, gas, and maintenance. Moreover, I lose on every transaction here. For example, I went to deposit $1000 into a Canadian bank, and they tried to charge me a $40 fee due to exchange rates.

In the US I got by without a car on one job. Here I need one. For that I need a Canadian bank account. I bought a dumpy used car because I'm only here for a year or so. Still, I have to register the car in Canada. To do that, I need insurance. For that I need a Canadian driver license. So I drive the 2 hours into town to get one. Then I find out I have to provide 6 years of my past driving records and past insurance to get insurance.

Everything is higher cost. Their generous per diem tilts in my favor, but everything is still a huge hassle.

I haven't done much work yet. Rather, I'm just settling in and dealing with a new apartment, car, insurance, banking, training, site orientation, phone, car insurance again, driver's license, work permits, and a mountain of paperwork in general.

The good news is I only have 3 more working days before my 4 day break.

My world is spinning so fast that I am forced to make decisions and to live in a way I would never choose. All this for a job.

Bobo

In honor of Bobo I present "King of the Road" by Roger Miller

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Seth's Blog : What to obsess over

What to obsess over

They use stopwatches at McDonald's. They know, to the second, how long it should take to make a batch of fries. And they use spreadsheets, too, to whittle the price of each fry down by a hundredth of a cent if they can. They're big and it matters.

Small businesspeople often act like direct marketers. They pick a number and they obsess over it. In direct mail, of course, it's the open rate or the conversion rate. For a freelancer or small business person, it might be your bank balance or the growth in weekly sales.

I think for most businesses that want to grow, it's way too soon to act like a direct marketer and pick a single number to obsess about.

The reason is that these numbers demand that you start tweaking. You can tweak a website or tweak an accounts payable policy and make numbers go up, which is great, but it's not going to fundamentally change your business.

I'd have you obsess about things that are a lot more difficult to measure. Things like the level of joy or relief or gratitude your best customers feel. How much risk your team is willing to take with new product launches. How many people recommended you to a friend today...

What are you tracking? If you track concepts, your concepts are going to get better. If you track open rates or clickthrough, then your subject lines are going to get better. Up to you.

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sâmbătă, 8 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

No One Happy Except Stock Market; Discord Emerges in Spain, Italy, Germany to ECB Announcement

Posted: 08 Sep 2012 06:33 PM PDT

Discord Emerges

It's not just Germany expressing reservations about the ECB's plan to "Save the Euro". Spain, Italy, and Germany all have concerns about the plan launched last week by ECB president Mario Draghi.

Germany does not like the plan because it does too much (please see 54% of Germans Want Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM; Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations) but Italy and Spain are annoyed they may have to bow to the Troika to get bailouts.

Please consider After High Note for Euro Plan, Discord Emerges.

Greeted with initial fanfare by investors and economic officials, the unlimited bond-buying plan that the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, announced Thursday ran into immediate political problems in the crucial countries of Germany, Spain and Italy.

In Germany, despite Chancellor Angela Merkel's support for Mr. Draghi and the independence of the Central Bank, political and news media reaction was scathing, with accusations that the bank, in seeking to stabilize the euro currency union, was subverting its mandate to fight inflation and forcing debt upon euro zone members.

"A Black Day for the Euro," "Over the Red Line" and "Pandora's Box Opened Forever" were some of the German headlines, with the normally sympathetic Süddeutsche Zeitung headlining an editorial: "The E.C.B. Rewards Mismanagement." Even the German Bundesbank, officially part of the European Central Bank, put out a statement commenting acidly that the plan was "financing governments by printing bank notes."

At the same time, the two intended beneficiaries of the Draghi plan — Spain and Italy — expressed reluctance to ask the bank for help, even if both might eventually have little choice but to seek aid. The governments in Madrid and Rome apparently fear the political impact at home of bowing to whatever demands for harsh economic policy changes might come with the aid.

"Those who did everything to have the E.C.B. help now say they don't want it," Ferruccio de Bortoli, editor in chief of the newspaper Corriere della Sera, said in a Twitter message. "Speculation will play on this contradiction."

ECB's Dirty Work

German newspapers blasted the announcement, even typically pro-EU newspapers as per Der Spiegel article 'The ECB Is Doing Governments' Dirty Work'

The markets reacted to the announcement with euphoria. On Friday, the German DAX stock market index climbed to over 7,200 points, its highest level in 2012. Yields on Spanish and Italian sovereign bonds dropped, as well.

But the criticism of the ECB's course continued in Germany. Bundesbank President Weidmann reiterated his opposition to the move, saying it was too close to "state financing via the money presses." Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of Bavaria's conservative Christian Social Union, said that the ECB must be "a stability bank and not an inflation bank".

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Rescuing the euro at any price could be an economic disaster -- that is the red line that must not be crossed. The other limit is the law: In a community based on law, the ends can never justify the means. A euro community that is based on constantly breaching treaties is built on a shaky foundation."

"On Thursday, the ECB unfortunately crossed both red lines. It did so reluctantly and not irrevocably, and yet it did so with determination. The purchase of government bonds by the central bank means that the ECB will tolerate and even reward economic mismanagement. (…) The crisis countries are not out of the woods yet. And that means that if the ECB provides them with unlimited help, then it is financing unsound states. It can only do so by printing ever more money. Ultimately, there will be the threat of bubbles, crises and inflation. It will benefit speculators, and the vast majority of citizens will have to foot the bill."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Draghi has made it clear that, from now on, the ECB will only buy bonds when a crisis-hit country asks for help from the euro rescue fund or agrees to other conditions. But that promise isn't new. The would-be saviors of the euro have been insisting on structural reforms for years. The recipients of aid make promises but often do not keep them. But what will the ECB do if, say, Italy does not carry out the labor market reforms it has promised? Is it going to start selling Italian bonds? It can't if it takes its own argument seriously, that monetary policy in the euro zone no longer functions properly."

"The central bank is getting tangled up in its own arguments because it has allowed itself to become the prisoner of politics. Since it is willing to make up for the failures of European politicians, it can not quit the bond-purchasing program."

"The leaders of southern euro-zone countries should be happy: They can continue to borrow at low interest rates and do not need to worry about finding investors. But the northern leaders are satisfied, too, because they can hide behind the ECB and do not need to face uncomfortable questions in, say, the Bundestag (Germany's parliament) about all the additional risks that Germany is taking on. In the euro zone, there is no longer a distinction between monetary and fiscal policy."

The conservative Die Welt writes:
"Every time the politicians shout 'fire,' the ECB puts it out. ..
"With his reference to a possible breakup of the euro zone, Draghi tried to justify the fact that he is trampling all over the ECB's statutes. In doing so, he is doing the dirty work for governments, who can slow down the pace of reforms a bit now that they are being protected by the central bank. At the same time, the ECB will get clogged up with government bonds from the crisis countries."

"The dangers of this policy are enormous. At the moment, it's not inflation that is the big problem. Rather, it is the redistribution of wealth from the north to the south in a completely non-transparent way and without political legitimacy. (The money is flowing) from the savers to those who benefit from this irresponsible monetary policy. This is undemocratic and antisocial."

No One Happy Except Stock Market

There are some favorable comments in the Der Spiegel but many additional negative ones that I did not excerpt.

Curiously, no one seems happy with the deal but the central bankers who hatched the plan and the stock market.

Of course the stock market always easy money, until things blow sky high like the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2005 housing bubble.
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54% of Germans Want Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM; Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations

Posted: 08 Sep 2012 10:03 AM PDT

Moment of Recognition

It appears a majority of German citizens have finally had enough of chancellor Angela Merkel saying one thing and doing another in regards to bailouts. They have also had enough of Mario Draghi and his policies.

According to Der Spiegel a Majority of Germans Want the Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM

Poll Results

54% want the court to reject the ESM outright. Only 25% want the court to ignore the Euroskeptics
53% are against transfer of more powers to the EU. Only 27% are in favor.
42% want Greece out of the Eurozone. Only 30% want Greece in the Eurozone.

Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations

Another article in Der Spiegel claims Merkel has also expressed reservations on ECB decision.

Merkel frequently says one thing and does another. If she has reservations, I suggest the reason is political expediency. Too many Germans are against the ESM for her not to express reservations.

Other German politicians are much easier to read.

For example...

CSU General Secretary Alexander Dobrindt reacted anxiously: "I stand by my warning that a public finance by printing is wrong and extremely dangerous." He could only urge Draghi strongly "not to open the floodgates for comprehensive purchasing programs." Dobrindt warned: "The ECB must be a bank stability and must be no inflation bank."

Sharp criticism of Merkel came from the opposition: SPD parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier appreciated the decision of the ECB as a "document of failure" of Chancellor Merkel. You know "that in its own coalition has no majority for more bailouts," Steinmeier said in Berlin on Thursday. Therefore, the chancellor had assigned all responsibility for the euro bailout by the ECB. "What follows now is taking place with much reduced parliamentary control," said ahead of the SPD politician.

Even Green group leader Jürgen Trittin criticized Merkel. With their hardline attitude to the question of debt repayment pact Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi have left no choice but to introduce as a pooling of debt through the back door, Trittin said on Thursday in Hanover. The danger now is that the German billion support for the bailout fund could be used up indefinitely. There were no strict rules for the use of aid

The EU treaties give the ECB the task of watching over the price stability in the euro area and set monetary policy. The financing of government budgets is the ECB therefore not allowed. Critics argued in recent weeks repeatedly, through the purchase of government bonds from crisis countries, the central bank financiers but indirectly budgets.

Court Ruling Coming Up

On September 12, the German constitution court is expected to rule on the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty chancellor Angela Merkel signed in March.

I believe bond purchases by the ECB are in violation of the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties which explicitly ban state funding. Nonetheless, I expect the court to OK the ESM with reservations and warning.

One thing that might influence a no vote is Mario Draghi's plan that allows unlimited purchases. Thus approval by the court is not guaranteed by any means.

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Weekly Address: Coming Together to Remember September 11th

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Weekly Address: Coming Together to Remember September 11th

President Obama marks the eleventh anniversary of the September 11th attacks by remembering the innocent lives lost, and honoring the first responders and men and women in uniform who have served and sacrificed to keep our country safe.

In the difficult years following the attacks, the United States has come back stronger as a nation, decimated the leadership of al-Qaeda, ensured that Osama bin Laden will never attack America again, and strengthened our alliances across the world.

The President has signed a proclamation making Friday, September 7 through Sunday, September 9, 2012 National Days of Prayer and Remembrance.

To join that commemoration, you can sign up for a service opportunity near you at Serve.gov.

Watch President Obama's weekly address.

Weekly Wrap Up

President Obama Speaks to Troops at Fort Bliss: Last Friday, two years after his visit to Fort Bliss that marked the end of the combat mission in Iraq, President Obama returned to speak to the troops.

"Now, when I was here last, I made you a pledge. I said that, as President, I will insist that America serves you and your families as well as you've served us," he said. "And there again, I meant what I said. Because part of ending wars responsibly is caring for those who fought in it. That’s why I wanted to come back to Bliss on this anniversary to reaffirm our solemn obligations to you and your families. You see, we may be turning a page on a decade of war, but America's responsibilities to you have only just begun."

Watch the video of President Obama speaking to troops at Fort Bliss, and read more about his visit.

President Obama Meets with Victims of Hurricane Isaac: On Monday, President Obama visited St. John’s Parish in Louisiana to understand the damage from Hurricane Isaac and meet with officials responding to the disaster. The President highlighted the “extraordinary work” done by local first responders who worked around the clock to rescue residents stranded by high water in a place that hadn't flooded in 17 years.

"Some of the folks that we just walked by literally had to be saved by boat. They were in their homes, trapped. The waters came in so quickly," he said. "But because of the great work of law enforcement, National Guard, Coast Guard, making sure that folks were out in rescue mode rapidly, even in some cases at risk of their own lives, no lives were lost."

Learn more about the President’s visit in Louisiana.

White House Beer Recipe: Over the weekend, Chef Sam Kass released the much anticipated White House beer recipes. After a lot of online buzz and a popular petition on We the People, the White House’s online petition platform, the White House decided to give America the White House Honey Ale and the White House Honey Porter recipes. Check out the behind the scenes of the home-brewing process.

White House Mobile App: On Tuesday, we announced some big changes to the way you connect with the White House. With the growing reliance on tablets and smart phones as well as demand for mobile access, we’ve relaunched the entire White House mobile program, making it even easier to see what's going on at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

First, we revamped the mobile version of WhiteHouse.gov, giving it a new look and making more than 99% of the site available to mobile users. We've also released new versions of the White House apps for the iPhone and Android, rebuilding them from the ground up and adding several new features. For the first time, these apps are also fully compatible with the iPad and Android tablets.

Inside the White House: Also this week, White House curator William Allman hosted Office Hours on Twitter, answering questions about the art and history of the White House. During the chat, he discussed who manages the art, the oldest piece in the building, the Obama family’s favorite, and more. Check out the full Q&A and take a tour of the White House yourself through the Google Art project.

3 Million Signatures Later: Recently, We the People crossed the 3 million signature threshold. The White House launched We the People last year, offering a powerful and simple way to petition the Obama Administration to take action on a range of issues. If a petition gathers enough signatures, policy officials review it and publish an official response. Many times, petitions posted on We the People have a real impact on policy-making. To learn more, check out a couple key facts and figures about the We the People platform, and view a map of petition signatures by location.

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Seth's Blog : Worth doing?

Worth doing?

One reason to do something is because you get paid to do it.

But it's sad to think that this might be the only reason to do something.

Now that you've got a skillset and trust and leverage and a following and the tools to make something happen, are you going to invest your heart and soul into something that's important or selling something you're not proud of?

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vineri, 7 septembrie 2012

Damn Cool Pics

GIF Sound the Video

Posted: 06 Sep 2012 07:39 PM PDT

A compilation of some of the best offerings from Reddit's GIF Sound subreddit, which are largely made using GIF Sound, a site that allows users to combine animated GIF's with sounds/music from YouTube videos.

duminică, 9 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : What to obsess over

What to obsess over

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sâmbătă, 8 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Weekly Address: Coming Together to Remember September 11th

Seth's Blog : Worth doing?

Worth doing?

More Recent Articles

vineri, 7 septembrie 2012

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

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duminică, 9 septembrie 2012

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vineri, 7 septembrie 2012

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