Central Perk

miercuri, 12 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Noose Tightens, But On Whom?
Why OMT Cannot Possibly Solve Anything; Monti Warns Italian Unions; Over 200,000 Jobs at Risk; Italy's Insane Labor Rules
Spain's Prime Minister Considers ECB Bond Program While Denying Full Sovereign Bailout; Debt Restructuring Under OMT Not On Table Says ECB; Reflections on "Strict Conditions"
German Court Approves ESM While Ruling "No Unlimited Liability, Parliament Must Approve Changes in Ceiling"; Sigh of Relief Reaction

Posted: 12 Sep 2012 10:06 PM PDT

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an interesting piece in The Telegraph regarding the German constitutional court's upholding of the ESM with conditions.

Pritchard often takes a contrarian view, and with near-unanimous opinions that the court caved in, he has a different view.

It's the kind of post that makes you stop and think, which is why I keep reading Ambrose, even though we frequently clash over monetary policy.

Pritchard claims German Constitutional Court tightens the noose yet further.

Just as it gave the go-ahead for Maastricht, Lisbon, the Greek rescue, and the EFSF bailout fund with a "Yes, but" with the 'but' mattering most in the end — Karlsruhe has now endorsed the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) with strings attached as well.

It has done so only under conditions that will greatly complicate EMU rescue politics in the future.

Here are some instant thoughts. I will be writing at greater length about the court later today for the newspaper.

Germany's ESM share is capped at €190bn, so what happens if Spain and Italy are forced to step out of the rescue machinery because they themselves are in too much trouble to fund the mechanism?

The Court made it clear that Germany will not automatically pick up the slack.

"The Federal Republic of Germany must clearly express that it cannot be bound by the Treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism in its entirety if the reservation made by it should prove to be ineffective."

This matters. It may well be tested.

The Court also killed off any idea of a banking licence for the ESM, viewed as crucial to give it adequate firepower.

"As borrowing by the ESM from the European Central Bank, alone or in connection with the depositing of government bonds, would be incompatible with the prohibition of monetary financing entrenched in Article 123 TFEU, the Treaty can only be taken to mean that it does not permit such borrowing operations."

And it laid down some markers on the ECB's Draghi Plan for bond purchases:

"An acquisition of government bonds on the secondary market by the European Central Bank aiming at financing the Members' budgets independently of the capital markets is prohibited as well, as it would circumvent the prohibition of monetary financing."

As for the bigger picture, here is the crucial point:

"The German Bundestag is prohibited from establishing mechanisms of considerable financial importance which may result in incalculable burdens with budget significance being incurred without the mandatory approval of the Bundestag."

"In this context, the Bundestag, as the legislature, is also prohibited from establishing permanent mechanisms based on international treaties which are tantamount to accepting liability for decisions by free will of other states, above all if they entail consequences which are hard to calculate."

Target2 Liabilities

Pritchard goes on to discuss Target2, and on that score he appears to be in exact agreement with what I stated in German Court Approves ESM While Ruling "No Unlimited Liability, Parliament Must Approve Changes in Ceiling"; Sigh of Relief Reaction.

He also caught something I didn't:

"An acquisition of government bonds on the secondary market by the European Central Bank aiming at financing the Members' budgets independently of the capital markets is prohibited as well, as it would circumvent the prohibition of monetary financing."

But does that matter?

With everyone but the Euroskeptics cheering the decision, Pritchard claims the "Noose Tightened".

After thinking about that for a while, and I have a number of questions.

Questions for Ambrose

Noose tightens on whom?
Do the politicians care?
Going one further, do the pro-euro advocates hope the noose tightens forcing Germany as quickly as possible into a no-win solution?
What indication is there the politicians simply will not raise the ceiling?
What indication is there that the constitutional court will do anything about things if the EU, ECB, or Bundestag oversteps their bounds?

Observation

By the time the anyone even recognizes the "noose has tightened" it will be far too late to do anything rational about the situation (which brings to the forefront bonus questions).

Additional Bonus Questions

Is that the nannycrat plan all along?
Isn't death by hanging still death?
Is there any escape for Germany?

The answer to 6 is probably not, at least according to Occam's Razor. However, regardless of how you feel about conspiracy theories or the answer to question 6, the answer to 7 is "yes", and the sad answer to question 8 is "no".

The best course of action for Germany and the EU is for Germany to exit the eurozone now.

Unfortunately, as a result of a pathetically wimpy ruling by the constitutional court that is 100% guaranteed to lead to "noose tightening", Germany will face the eurozone exit question at a time when the consequences of that decision, no matter which way Germany chooses, will be far more painful than they are today.

Thus, the answer to my primary question "Noose Tightens, But On Whom?" is German citizens, not misguided or stubborn politicians out to make history.

Please thank Chancellor Merkel for this sad state of affairs. Had she spoken out against Draghi's foolish plan the court would likely have killed it, and German citizens would have had the referendum they deserved.

For a discussion as to why the OMT cannot possibly solve anything, please see Monti Warns Italian Unions; Over 200,000 Jobs at Risk; Italy's Insane Labor Rules.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Why OMT Cannot Possibly Solve Anything; Monti Warns Italian Unions; Over 200,000 Jobs at Risk; Italy's Insane Labor Rules

Posted: 12 Sep 2012 02:01 PM PDT

Amazing discrepancies in small business employment in Italy vs. the rest of the EU will go a long ways towards explaining why Mario Draghi's OMT plan to "save the euro" cannot possibly work.

I pieced the following analysis together after reading some interesting comments on Eurointelligence in today's Daily Morning Briefing.

Monti Warns Italian Unions

Mario Monti warned Italian labour unions during a meeting in Rome that time was running out for action, government sources told ANSA. "Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal have boosted productivity and lowered labour costs, turning around a negative trend, while Italy has not improved productivity and has increased labour costs," Monti said. An effort for concrete results is urgently needed from talks between business leaders and unions, Monti told to the union leaders. But the biggest Italian union CGIL said "growth cannot come on backs of workers alone." Monti reminded unions that only a few weeks remained before the eurogroup and EU summits in October. The premier called for concrete signals within a month.

Over 200,000 Jobs at Risk in Italy

Italy's main small business association found that Italian SMEs may be cutting 172,000 jobs, the lionshare of all jobs at risk in Italy from the recession, La Repubblica reports. Yesterday, the CGIA reiterated that idea. Italy risks having an additional 202,000 people unemployed in the second half of this year, relative to the same period in 2011, CGIA data shows. The association says the tax burden was the main problem - at over 60% for SMEs, and over 55% on average for Italian companies.

The Five Star Movement Established Itself as Italy's Third Party

The Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) has entrenched its position as the third Italian Party, according to several polls appear on Il Fatto Quotidiano. The last poll (Ipsos) shows that the Silvio Berlusconi's party PDL is the second one in Italy, with 21.9%. The first is PD (Partito Democratico) with 25.4%. Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle comes in at 17.9%. Italian analysts compare the M5S to the Greek Syriza. It is opposed to the euro, to austerity, to the ECB, and wants to regain sovereignty on monetary policy, and favours a default (Icelandic way), followed by devaluation.

Understanding SMEs

Inquiring minds (mine) had to look up the word "SMEs". It stands for small and medium sized businesses.

Micro businesses have fewer than 10 employees, small businesses fewer than 50 employees, and medium businesses under 250 employees.

Please consider this EU SME Fact Sheet

SMEs in Italy – A Brief Fact Check

There are approximately 65 SMEs per 1000 inhabitants in Italy, which is substantially above the EU27 average of ca 40. In line with this, the relative importance of SMEs for the Italian economy exceeds by far the EU average, as illustrated by a considerably above-EU-average share of persons employed and value added accounted for by SMEs. It should be noted, that this elevated importance is mainly due to the micro enterprises, while medium enterprises are, in fact, underrepresented vis-à-vis the EU average.

Italy SMEs

click on chart for sharper image

Italy SMEs vs. EU

94.6% of Italian businesses are "Micro Businesses" vs. EU Average of 91.8%
47.1% of Italian employment is by "Micro Businesses" vs. EU Average of 29.6%

Note those amazing differences, especially point number two. I will explain why in detail below, but union work rules are at the very heart of it all.

The SME comparison stats are from 2005, but if anything, I expect they would be even more lopsided now.

Italy Labor Force

Italy has an estimated Labor Force of about 23 million.

Unemployment Rate in Italy

A loss of 200,000 jobs would raise Italy's Unemployment Rate by about .9 percentage points, from 10.7% to 11.6%.

Italy's Insane Labor Rules

In searching for material on SME's I came across the Wall Street Journal report Employment, Italian Style which helps explain Europe's economic crisis. Here are a few key snips:

Imagine you're an ambitious Italian entrepreneur, trying to make a go of a new business. You know you will have to pay at least two-thirds of your employees' social security costs. You also know you're going to run into problems once you hire your 16th employee, since that will trigger provisions making it either impossible or very expensive to dismiss a staffer.

But there's so much more. Once you hire employee 11, you must submit an annual self-assessment to the national authorities outlining every possible health and safety hazard to which your employees might be subject. These include stress that is work-related or caused by age, gender and racial differences. You must also note all precautionary and individual measures to prevent risks, procedures to carry them out, the names of employees in charge of safety, as well as the physician whose presence is required for the assessment.

Now say you decide to scale up. Beware again: Once you hire your 16th employee, national unions can set up shop. As your company grows, so does the number of required employee representatives, each of whom is entitled to eight hours of paid leave monthly to fulfill union or works-council duties. Management must consult these worker reps on everything from gender equality to the introduction of new technology.

Hire No. 16 also means that your next recruit must qualify as disabled. By the time your firm hires its 51st worker, 7% of the payroll must be handicapped in some way, or else your company owes fees in-kind.

Once you hire your 101st employee, you must submit a report every two years on the gender dynamics within the company. This must include a tabulation of the men and women employed in each production unit, their functions and level within the company, details of compensation and benefits, and dates and reasons for recruitments, promotions and transfers, as well as the estimated revenue impact.

Businesses with no more than 250 employees may also still be enjoying their three-year profit-tax holiday, which was granted in 2010 for small and medium-sized firms that reinvest their profits in forging "networks" for "innovation" with other small businesses nearby.

All of these protections and assurances, along with the bureaucracies that oversee them, subtract 47.6% from the average Italian wage, according to the OECD. Two-thirds of that bite comes before payroll, meaning many Italian workers are unaware of their gross cost to employers.

Tax Holiday Ends

Note the second to last paragraph above regarding the end of the three-year profit-tax holiday on SMEs.

Italian unemployment is going to soar.

Structural Problems

The EU nannycrats and officials at the ECB think the problem in Europe is one of interest rates. The above analysis clearly shows something else.

The first structural problem is preposterous labor work rules in Italy, Spain, and Greece.

The second structural problem is the ECB and the euro itself. One size interest rate policy cannot possibly work in a mix of cultures and work rules.

Instead of fixing work rules or breaking up the eurozone (both are needed), the nannycrats in Brussels want higher taxes, the socialists in France want higher taxes, and the radical left parties want more stimulus and no pension reforms.

Mario Draghi's OMT cannot possibly fix anything.

If "progressives" and union advocates in the US had their way, we would be in the same shape.

Addendum:

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Spain's Prime Minister Considers ECB Bond Program While Denying Full Sovereign Bailout; Debt Restructuring Under OMT Not On Table Says ECB; Reflections on "Strict Conditions"

Posted: 12 Sep 2012 11:04 AM PDT

The Economic Times reports Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy considers ECB bond programme

HELSINKI: Spain is considering asking help from the European Central Bank's bond-buying programme but is not planning a full sovereign bailout, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was quoted as saying on Wednesday in Finnish newspapers.

Last week the ECB agreed to launch a new bond-buying programme to lower struggling euro zone countries' borrowing costs.
"In addition to growth, the only option I am considering is using the central bank's announced mechanism," Rajoy said, according to Helsingin Sanomat.

"It is completely outruled that we would ask for a bailout for the whole country," he told business daily Kauppalehti.

Mish Translation

Spain wants and needs a full sovereign bailout, but Rajoy does not want to go along with the demands stipulated by Mario Draghi in the OMT program.

Recall that one of the conditions of the OMT involves oversight by the IMF.

Debt Restructuring Under OMT Not On Table Says ECB

The Wall Street Journal reports Talk of Debt Restructuring Under New Program 'Not on Table'

The European Central Bank won't discuss potential write-downs on debt bought under its new bond-buying program, ECB executive board member Joerg Asmussen said Tuesday.

Asked whether the ECB would participate in any voluntary restructuring of bonds bought under the program, known as Outright Monetary Transactions, Mr. Asmussen said the question "is not on the table."

ECB President Mario Draghi announced last week that the ECB is ready to buy a potentially unlimited amount of the bonds of stressed euro-zone governments, under strict conditions.

The OMT "has been designed to ensure full compatibility with European law, and in particular with the prohibition of monetary financing," Mr. Asmussen said.

He stressed that "strict conditionality is key," and warned that the program is no substitute for structural reforms and budget consolidation by governments.

The involvement of the International Monetary Fund is a necessary condition for the ECB to activate the new program, he added.

Strict Conditions For Bond Buying?

When Spain's budget deficit fails to come close to agreed upon targets (which by the way is right now) we will see just how "strict" those conditions are.

I strongly suggest even "loose" conditions will quickly fly out the window.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

German Court Approves ESM While Ruling "No Unlimited Liability, Parliament Must Approve Changes in Ceiling"; Sigh of Relief Reaction

Posted: 12 Sep 2012 08:00 AM PDT

The German constitutional court approved the ESM, while stating there must be no unlimited liability for Germany. The court also stated the German parliament must approve any increase in the Germany's ceiling of €190bn.

Ho hum.

This is actually a wimpy decision, and basically what the market expected judging from the "sigh of relief" reaction as opposed to euphoria.

Because of soaring Target2 exposures, I would like to point out that Germany's potential liabilities already far exceed the ceiling of €190bn.

For further discussion, please see Target2 and the ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) program; Reader From Europe Asks "Can You Please Explain Target2?"

Moreover, the recently hatched OMT plan of Mario Draghi in and of itself has potential unlimited liability in that it allows unlimited purchases of sovereign bonds for which Germany and other countries are responsible for their share of the pie in accordance with percentages noted in the above link.

Finally, please note that 37,000 people signed a petition against this deal, and polls show it likely would not have passed if put to a vote. Those petition signers, including a few top politicians looking out for their constituents (and for Germany itself), were seeking a referendum.

Once again the will of the people has been suppressed for the benefit of politicians wanting to protect their legacy, exactly as expected and exactly as opponents of the ESM feared.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

“Inspired Beauty” A Guide To Celebrity Makeup [Infographic]

Posted: 12 Sep 2012 12:48 PM PDT

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President Obama Discusses the Attack in Benghazi, Libya

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wed., September 12, 2012

President Obama Discusses the Attack in Benghazi, Libya

Yesterday, four Americans lost their lives after an attack on the U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya. Ambassador Chris Stevens and Foreign Service Officer Sean Smith were among those killed.

This morning, President Obama condemned that attack, which he called "outrageous and shocking" in a statement from the Rose Garden.

"We're working with the government of Libya to secure our diplomats," he said. "I've also directed my Administration to increase our security at diplomatic posts around the world. And make no mistake, we will work with the Libyan government to bring to justice the killers who attacked our people."

Read more about the President's remarks and Ambassador Stevens' service in Libya.

How To: Advanced rel="canonical" HTTP Headers

Posted: 11 Sep 2012 02:03 PM PDT

Posted by Kevin Graves

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

On February 12th, 2009, Google began to support the link rel="canonical" tag, which was later adopted by Bing and Yahoo, for specifying a preferred version of a URL. It wasnt until June 17th of 2011 that Google announced the support for rel=canonical in the form of an HTTP Header, giving webmasters yet another avenue to provide a preferred URL for non-text/html content-types such as PDF files, that were otherwise unable to have a specified URL using the link tag. In retrospect, this was relatively important news for SEOs, helping to minimize potential duplicate content issues, especially in wake of content penalties waged against site owners in recent years. This nontraditional method to this day is underutilized, and I believe that, now more than ever, SEOs should start leveraging and considering the power of this method for non-text/html content-types.

There are a lot of reasons that the link HTTP header has not had a ton of traction in the SEO industry:

SEOs are heavily focused on traditional URL consolidation for text/html content-types
Canonical HTTP headers are more difficult to implement dynamically than the link HTML tag.
Implementation may require additional access where privileges may be limited.
Implementation may require additional server modules to be enabled or installed.
Implementation can easily create server errors, if not handled correctly.

For the most part, these non-text/html content-types, specifically PDF files, add content and value to sites. They can be crawled, indexed, contain links which when shared across the web act as natural link building, and pass PageRank. Link HTTP Headers should be added to these content-types when applicable.

I recently was digging into the Apache documentation and surfing different articles for information about a more advanced implementation. I was surprised to see that there were not many advanced methods or tutorials on how to dynamically add in the HTTP header, and so I am bringing this to the community.

HTTP Headers Using PHP (Text/HTML Types):

The rel="canonical" HTTP Header can easily be added to a text/html content type that supports PHP using the header() function. Using the proper syntax shown in Google's documentation coupled with PHP will allow us to accomplish this.

HTTP Header Response using PHP

Adding this header() function before any HTML is output will append a link rel="canonical" HTTP header to the headers before they get sent.

This minics the rel="canonical" link tag. The only difference is sending the preferred canonical URI using an HTTP header versus a <link> tag. Traditionally the <link> tag has been by far the most popular choice of implementation. This function, however, will be used in the advanced section of this article.

HTTP Headers Using .htaccess (non-Text/HTML Types):

The HTTP Header can modified relatively easily using .htaccess for all content-types, such as PDF files. This solution works great for sites that have a relatively small amount of files which you need the header added to. In this example I'm showcasing an application/pdf content-type.

Apache Files Directive

This snippet of code when implemented will add a HTTP Header to the PDF file pointing to an HTML page with the URL of /page.html.

The filename argument should include a filename, or a wild-card string, where ? matches any single character, and * matches any sequences of characters.

Regular expressions can also be used, with the addition of the ~ character.

Advanced Dynamic HTTP Header Implementation (non-Text/HTML Types):

The dynamic implementation of the HTTP Header for application/pdf content-types i'm about to show you is more advanced and does require knowledge with .htaccess and PHP, although I will provide the examples.

The first step is to create php file to control the output of the PDF. This can most easily be done by rewriting a URL.

PDF URL Rewrite

This RewriteRule, when added to an .htaccess file, simply allows us to control the PDF file from a php file named "pdf.php". Anytime a user or search engine tries to access a URL that contains the file extension ".pdf", the pdf.php file will be referenced for instructions on how to display the file. This gives us the ability to perform conditional logic to add a canonical HTTP header.

Adding a link in PHP

This snippet of code when added to pdf.php, will check if the URL of the PDF file exists. If it does, we can then perform logic to add in the canonical HTTP header, otherwise, we want to return the file as a 404.

As you can see, the conditional logic has been commented and does not currently function although this is where I leave you in good hands to create your own logic based on your needs.

For example, you may have a csv or txt file you would like to read from. Those files could contain a list of pdf files and corresponding URLs that you would want to have the HTTP header added to. You may also have table(s) or column(s) of useful information in a database that you need to reference to find the corresponding URL to point to the preferred URL. There are many possibilities.

It is also important to note the other two additional headers added for the content-type and content-length. These are necessary for proper output. If we do not set the content-type to application/pdf, the file will be treated as a text/html file.

Check Your Headers

How do you know if the HTTP Headers have been sent? Verify them using a tool. The Web Developer Toolbar for Firefox is a great tool not for just implementing HTTP Headers. Another tool that can be used is Live HTTP Headers. You can also use a third party web-based tool for development sites that are generally not hosted locally.

Example of HTTP Headers Sent

Caution

I highly recommend testing any dynamic HTTP Headers using .htaccess on a development or local site before pushing changes live. There are potential errors that can occur, and it also gives us the chance to QA the implementation as well.

What I Used

PHP
Apache
mod_rewrite enabled
mod_headers enabled

Note: These script examples are very minimalistic on purpose to showcase the fundamental code necessary to perform the method. There are many different ways to add the canonical tag in the form of an HTTP Header. This simply showcases examples for users running the most widely used server and framework. Windows running IIS does not use .htaccess files unless third party extensions are enabled. They also are different with regards to case sensitivity using file_exists( ) with PHP.

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Seth's Blog : Two questions behind every disagreement

Two questions behind every disagreement

Are we on the same team? and

What's the right path forward?

Most of time, all we talk about is the path, without having the far more important but much more difficult conversation about agendas, goals and tone.

Is this a matter of respect? Power? Do you come out ahead if I fail? Has someone undercut you? Do we both want the same thing to happen here?

The reason politics in my country is diverging so much from useful governance has nothing to do with useful conversations and insight into what the right path is. It's because defeat and power and humiliation and money have replaced "doing what works for all of us" as the driving force in politics.

If you feel disrespected, the person you disagree with is not going to be a useful partner in figuring out what the right path going forward might be. If one party (employee/customer/investor) only wins when the other party loses, what's the point of talking about anything but that?

Deal with the agenda items and the dignity problems first before you try to work out the right strategic choices.

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marți, 11 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Canadian Exports Collapse, Expect Plunge in GDP; China Factor; US Recession Factor

Posted: 11 Sep 2012 07:51 PM PDT

All major Canadian exports including energy, autos, agriculture, forest products and machinery-and-equipment collapsed in the latest report. Canadian analysts are shocked by the news.

I sure am not.

For my reason, look at happenings in China, a huge recession in Europe, and even a recession in the US that surprisingly few have even figured out yet.

The Globe and Mail reports Sharp trade slowdown set to wallop GDP

The high dollar and the global slowdown are crushing Canada's trade-dependent economy.

The latest evidence: The country posted the largest trade deficit in July since Statistics Canada began keeping records in 1971.

It wasn't just the scale of the gap – $2.3-billion – that jolted analysts. It's how the economy got there.

Virtually all major exports fell sharply, including energy, autos, agriculture, forest products and machinery-and-equipment. The overall drop was 3.4 per cent, paced by an even larger 5 per cent decline in exports to the U.S. – Canada's largest customer.

At $2.3-billion, the trade deficit narrowly eclipsed the old mark, set in September 2010.

Scotiabank's Mr. Holt said the high dollar is most damaging to U.S.-bound exports, which accounted for 72 per cent of all exports in July.

Currency Issue?

Sorry guys, this is not just a currency issue. This is a global recession, starting in Europe, continuing in Asia and as of June hitting the US. Few even see the US recession yet, but it is here, and Canada will be on the leading edge of it all.

China Factor

This is not unexpected in this corner, albeit I have for so long predicted the end of the Canadian housing bubble that no one is listening to anything else I have said about Canada.

Those who want to catch up on what is happening in China and how it is guaranteed to affect Canada may consider the following posts.

All three of those pieces originate from Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets. What he suggests about China and Australia, I have long-since stated applied to Canada as well.

Those posts are just the start of Canada's problems. Europe is in a massive recession that few saw coming. I commented on that silliness on January 9, 2012 in Dimwit Comment of the Day: Christine Lagarde, IMF Director says "Europe May Avoid a Recession This Year"

Global Recession

Heck, even the vaunted German export machine is falling apart. See Germany in Recession: Private Sector Sees Fastest Falls in Output and New Business Since June 2009; New Export Orders Collapse

In the above post I commented ...

Global Recession Revisited

On July 6, 2012, I wrote Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived

Clearly I am not changing that prognosis although I do wish to reiterate the definition of "global recession as per my post Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now; Recognizing the Limits of Madness; Permabears?

US Recession Factor

On June 21, 2012, I gave 12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly)

On September 7, I stated a specific belief the US entered recession in June.

For my reasons, please review Household Survey: Number of Employed Declines by 119,000 as Those Not in Labor Force Rises by Spectacular 581,000; Yes, Virginia, It's a Recession

The three people I am aware of sticking with a recession call right now are John Hussman, Lakshman Achuthan at the ECRI, and me.

Indeed, John Hussman announced yesterday in Late-Stage, High-Risk "I continue to believe that the U.S. joined an unfolding global recession, most probably in June of this year."

In Hussman's post he states a belief backdated downward revisions are coming up. I concur with his analysis.

The collapse in the household survey is an indicator as is the collapse in Canadian exports to the US.

Canada Housing Bubble

100% without a doubt, Canada is in the midst of an immense housing bubble. The Canadian bubble outlasted bubbles in China and Australia. Because it did, I get taunts from Canadian readers all the time.

I received one just yesterday. It went something like this "So Mish, where's your Canada Housing Collapse?"

The answer, as always is "I don't know". That said, bubbles pop by definition. Moreover, the longer the bubble lasts, the bigger the implosion.

Australia is in the midst of a big property bubble collapse, a big retail collapse, and a big export mining collapse all at the same time.

Canada will follow suit at some point and given taunts out of the blue, now is as good a time as any.

Addendum:

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Petroleum And Gasoline Usage Charts for June, July, August; Unemployment vs. Gasoline Usage Analysis

Posted: 11 Sep 2012 09:57 AM PDT

Another summer is gone. How much gasoline was used vs. the same months in prior years? These charts from Tim Wallace have the answer.

Total Petroleum Usage

click on chart for sharper image

Gasoline Usage

click on chart for sharper image

General Comments

Gasoline usage is the same as it was in 2001 or 2002, depending on the month.
Petroleum usage is the same as it was in 1997 or 1998, depending on the month.
Gallons per mile did not suddenly improve in 2007. Thus declining gasoline usage cannot be attributed to improved gas mileage, cash for clunkers, etc.
There was a rebound in June and July of 2010 consistent with the economic recovery. For August alone there was rebound in 2010 and 2011.
Based on gasoline usage, the economy has stalled or there is some other force in play, not related to improved gas mileage.

Jobs, Demographics, Attitudes

Those who are unemployed do not drive many miles.
People back in school or hiding out in school hoping to get a job later do not drive many miles.
Those who want a job and need a job but instead retired to have money coming in from Social Security do not drive many miles.
Those on disability do not drive many miles.
The commercial real estate boom which lasted another year or two after housing died came crashing to earth in 2007. Construction and stocking of the final commercial real estate build-out took a lot of gasoline and diesel. That fact explains the last push higher in June and July of 2007.
Attitudes of millennials towards cars and transportation vs. their boomer parents have come into play.
Because of the economy, people are taking vacations closer to home, driving fewer miles to do so.

Gasoline usage mirrors the weak recovery in jobs. Forget about the falling unemployment rate because the rest of the Household Survey tells the real story.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

US Unemployment Rate -.2 to 8.1%
This month the number of people employed fell by 119,000.
In the last two months, the number of people employed fell by 314,000!
In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 971,000.
This month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 368,000.
Last month, those "not" in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000, another record high.
This month we set another record high with a whopping 581,000 dropping out of the labor force. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,723,000
Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,347,000.
Participation Rate fell .02 to 63.5%;
There are 8,031,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, a decrease of 215,00. This one the only bright spot in the report.
Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 5.033 million a decline of 152,000 (likely an artifact of the decline in the labor force).
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

Unemployment vs. Gasoline Usage Analysis

In terms of gasoline usage, nearly all of the above points apply, especially two through nine, eleven, and twelve.

This recovery is far weaker than the decline in unemployment suggests. Gasoline usage is consistent with that thesis.

Addendum:

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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