Central Perk

miercuri, 2 ianuarie 2013

Want to Know More About the Tax Deal?

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, January 1, 2013

Want to Know More About the Tax Deal?

Last night, President Obama delivered a statement on the fiscal cliff, and the bipartisan agreement that has now passed in both the Senate and House of Representatives. The agreement keeps income taxes low for the middle class, and helps to grow the economy.

Watch the statement, and find out what you need to know about the deal.

Watch: President Obama delivers a statement

Seth's Blog : "Here, I made this," is difficult and frightening

"Here, I made this," is difficult and frightening

Hey, even the headline is a bummer. The first thing that they teach you at business book/blogging school is that "fun and easy" are the two magic words, followed, I guess, by "dummies." Difficult and frightening are not part of the syllabus.

Alas, the work we're being asked to do now, the emotional labor we're getting paid to do, is frightening. It's frightening to stand up for what we believe in, frightening to do something that might not work, frightening to do something that we have to be responsible for.

Tonight is the first ever Icarus Session, a worldwide event that might just be happening near you (click here to find the local event, and here to find out what it's all about). There are more than 360 communities signed up so far, with thousands of people around the world getting together in small groups to speak up and to support each other.

Two things might hold someone back from sharing the art they've got inside: The fear of telling the truth or the lame strategy of hiding the truth behind a sales pitch.

If you can, find a way to come to a session near you tonight. And if you can find the voice, stand up and tell people what you care about.

Your art is vitally important, and what makes it art is that it is personal, important and fraught with the whiff of failure. This is precisely why it's scarce and thus valuable—it's difficult to stand up and own it and say, "here, I made this." For me, anyway, writing a book is far easier than handing it to someone I care about and asking them to read it.

Throughout the USA, there are bookstores (Barnes and Noble as a notable example) hosting piles of my new book, The Icarus Deception.

Here's something you might do today: Go to this site, scroll down and find the laid-out bookmark and print it out. Take the bookmark and write on it. Write down your project, your feelings, the thing you're making--share your art. Tell us your URL if you have one, or draw a picture if you like. And then go to the local bookstore and carefully put the bookmark in a copy of Icarus. (It's great with me if you support your local bookstore by buying something while you're there).

One day, someday, someone will buy the book and find your bookmark. A karmic connection will happen, and you'll be connected to a stranger. Your art will be in the world, and perhaps one day, this stranger, this reader, this fellow traveler will continue the chain, putting her bookmark into someone else's book.

Right now, the urgency is real. We have to create more art, create better art and build more substantial connections.

Click above for a small film about what it means to make and share your art. The last line from Sasha is worth the four minutes. My publisher's book trailer has also just gone live.

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marți, 1 ianuarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mutual Guarantee Society: Spain Proposes State Guarantee of Bank Loans to Small and Medium Businesses

Posted: 01 Jan 2013 04:34 PM PST

Lending in Spain has all but dried up. Banks don't want to (or cannot) lend because they are capital impaired and there are too few creditworthy risks.

In such an environment, lending is not wise. It will lead to more losses. But that is not how government bureaucrats think. Prime minister, Mariano Rajoy is preparing measures to 'desbancarizar' save the economy and SMEs

He acknowledged President Mariano Rajoy in balance the first year of government: the main problem of the economy to start recovery is the lack of financing for SMEs [Small and Medium Enterprises]. With that goal-getting liquidity regrease economic system, the government last a number of measures to facilitate the financing of small and medium enterprises. Or what is the same, it is 'desbancarizar' the Spanish economy far too dependent on credit institutions in granting loans or other financing of productive activity.

The Government is considering the creation of new instruments for SMEs operate with the State guarantee, which is considered key to boost economic activity. At the same time, they want to boost mutual guarantee societies, an instrument in the hands of the regions that did not just start with all its potential. In parallel, the Ministry of Economy is betting big on the credits of the ICO for SMEs, about 22,000 million euros in 2013 for self-employed and SMEs.

The result of this 'banking' of the Spanish economy is lethal. There are no corporate funding mechanisms that provide a continuous flow of resources, which is an additional difficulty facing Spanish companies in a recessionary environment. With the addition of that full financial restructuring-dunk entities to restore its solvency levels, can not allocate funds to finance productive activity. To this we must add that the public sector is eaten much of the credit to finance their high fiscal deficits, the so-called crowding out effect, which involves the removal of private economic agents in funding.

Spain Beyond Repair

"Spain hopes to boost small business access to finance outside of the banking world by encouraging the market to accept paper of smaller businesses, by guaranteeing debt, and via the official credit office", writes reader Bran who lives in span and forwarded the above link.

Regardless of the precise translation of "desbancarizar", I am certain it will fail. Quite literally Spain is beyond repair, at least within the eurozone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Obama Deal Adds $3.97 Trillion to Deficit Over 10 Years; Only 5 Republicans Voted Against; White-Flag Surrender

Posted: 01 Jan 2013 01:27 PM PST

For all the pissing and moaning over the fiscal cliff, there was never much of a "cliff" in the first place. Worse yet, every delay made matters increasing irresponsible in terms of addressing the deficit.

The final result, as passed by the Senate, watered down budget cuts from $600 billion to a mere $12 billion.

Moreover, the extension of the tax cuts will add almost $4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years according to CBO analysis of the American Taxpayer Relief Act.

Nonetheless, that was not enough for liberal democrats who thought they did not get enough out of the deal.

The "Fiscal cliff" moves to House, where a slim hope remains that Republicans will punt this bill a mile high.

In a rare late-night show of unity, the Senate voted 89 to 8 to raise some taxes on the wealthy while keeping income taxes low on more moderate earners.

Republicans, unhappy that the bill contained over $600 billion in tax increases but only around $12 billion in spending cuts, said they may change it more to their liking and send it back to the Senate. Party leaders planned to take the temperature of rank-and-file lawmakers over the afternoon before deciding on a course of action.

"My recommendation would be not to take a package put together by a bunch of sleep-deprived octogenarians on New Year's Eve," said Representative Steve LaTourette, a moderate Republican from Ohio who is a close ally of House Speaker John Boehner.

"My district cannot afford to wait a few days and have the stock market go down 300 points tomorrow if we don't get together and do something," Representative Steve Cohen, a Democrat from Tennessee, said on the House floor.

The White House has floated $600 billion worth of spending cuts in earlier negotiations, and Obama said he would be willing to tackle deficit reduction over the coming months.

"There's more work to do to reduce our deficits, and I'm willing to do it," he said in a statement urging the House to pass the current bill.

Republican Representative Tom Cole said his House colleagues should pass the Senate bill rather than try to change it.

"We ought to take this deal right now, and we'll live to fight another day," Cole said on MSNBC.

Only 5 Republicans Voted Against

The Tax Foundation has additional Details of the Fiscal Cliff Tax Deal

At 2AM this morning, the Senate passed H.R. 8, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, by a vote of 89-8. Voting no were Bennet (D-CO), Carper (D-DE), Grassley (R-IA), Harkin (D-IA), Lee (R-UT), Paul (R-KY), Rubio (R-FL), Shelby (R-AL). Not voting were DeMint (R-SC), Kirk (R-IL), and Lautenberg (D-NJ). TaxProfBlog has the text of Senate-passed bill (157 pages). The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has also produced a revenue estimate, as has the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

White-Flag Surrender

Somehow, right before the election, budget cuts of 10-1 over tax hikes were not acceptable to Republicans. Now, they have settled for a package that essentially makes no budget cuts at all.

This is one of the biggest white-flag political surrenders in history.

Obama Tax Cut" To Add $4 Trillion To Deficit Over Next Decade

President Obama made the biggest understatement ever regarding the budget deficit: "There's more work to do to reduce our deficits".

More work? Pardon me for asking, when was "any" work done to reduce the deficit? Ill-fated attempts to reduce the budget deficit have only gone in reverse.

Finally, it's important to note that the bill that passed the Senate is technically a tax cut. ZeroHedge accurately sums up the situation as follows "Obama Tax Cut" To Add $4 Trillion To Deficit Over Next Decade

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

10 Desks that are Probably More Interesting than Yours

Posted: 01 Jan 2013 12:26 PM PST

When is a desk, not just something you use to work on? When it's designed to look like a BMW or Treadmill. That is just one of the many cool and geeky desks we've rounded up for your viewing enjoyment.

Dali's desk

Underwater desk

Yard desk

Treadmill desks

Read full story at Serviced.co.uk.

SEO Blog

Top 10 (Ten) Web Analytics Tools for 2013

Posted: 01 Jan 2013 02:02 AM PST

What is Web Analytics? Web analytics refers to measurement, compilation, analysis and report the internet data to identify and optimize web usage. Web analytics is a very good tool for research to assess and improve the efficiency of a website. Through Web analytics applications businesses can measure the success of...
Read more »

Seth's Blog : Do you remember?

Do you remember?

A year ago today, do you remember where you stood?

Last year about this time, I was lying on the couch, having ripped my hamstring with a loud pop while working out early in the morning. But that's not the sort of 'stand' that I'm talking about.

Are you more trusted? More skilled? More connected to people who care about your work?

How many people would miss your work if you stopped contributing it?

New Year's resolutions rarely work, because good intentions don't often survive a collision with reality. But an inventory is a helpful tool, a way to keep track of what you're building. Drip by drip.

Just be careful on your roller skis.

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luni, 31 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Gold Has Longest Streak of Annual Gains Since 1920
China Manufacturing PMI Shows Modest Growth; Don't Expect Bounce to Last
Gold, Stock Market Up as Fiscal Cliff Can-Kicking Deal at Hand

Gold Has Longest Streak of Annual Gains Since 1920

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 01:01 PM PST

Bloomberg reports Gold Extends Longest Streak Since 1920 on Central-Bank Stimulus.

Gold rose, capping the longest annual gain since at least 1920, on renewed concern that central banks from Europe to China will take steps to spur economic growth and as U.S. leaders near a budget deal.

Gold futures for February delivery gained 1.2 percent to settle at $1,675.80 at 1:41 p.m. on the Comex in New York, while prices for immediate delivery jumped as much as 1.5 percent. Through Dec. 28, the metal had slumped for five straight weeks as the deadline for the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect tomorrow loomed. President Obama said today at a White House event that an agreement was "within sight."

Record Average

The metal averaged a record $1,670.71 this year in New York even as it slid 6 percent since September, the biggest quarterly drop since 2004. The run of annual gains in the immediate delivery market is the longest since at least 1920. The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities gained 0.3 percent

This year, bullion gained 7 percent on the Comex, where floor trading will be closed tomorrow for New Year's Day. Platinum futures rallied 9.8 percent this year in New York and palladium gained 7.2 percent as labor unrest in South Africa helped curb supply. Silver increased 8.3 percent.

Amusing Irony

The amusing irony, as noted in Poison Pill and Gold Debate is that someone posting under the name "Uncle Frank" made the following accusation.

"Mish relishes chaos and financial ruin for this country so his gold holdings shoot-up in value. Everyone has an ulterior motive you know."

"Uncle Frank" is devoid of clear thinking because fiscal prudence is the one thing that would be bad for gold.

Repeating what I said earlier ....

Regardless of my personal beliefs regarding gold (that one would be prudent to buy and hold gold), I actually advocate government and Fed policies that are contrary to my recommendations.

My reasons are easily explained:

Neither the Fed nor the government gives a damn about what is fiscally prudent.
Both the Fed and Congress are highly likely to debase currency, causing gold to rise, even if I think that is bad economic and fiscal policy, which of course I do.

Should Congress actually do what I advocate, I think it would not be good for gold.

I recommend governmental actions on the basis of policy merit alone, not based on my stock market positioning. I find it very sad that few others do the same.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

China Manufacturing PMI Shows Modest Growth; Don't Expect Bounce to Last

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 11:34 AM PST

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ shows modest growth this month. The index is at 51.5 with growth above 50.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 51.5 in December, up from 50.5 in November, signalling a modest improvement of operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Moreover, it was the highest index reading since May 2011.

Input prices at manufacturing plants continued to increase in December, and for the third successive month. The rate of inflation eased slightly from November but remained marked overall. Average tariffs also increased during December, after remaining broadly similar in November. Output charges rose at an accelerated pace that, although modest, was the quickest in 14 months. Anecdotal evidence suggested that tariffs were raised in line with rising market demand and higher input costs.

Purchasing activity rose at a marked rate in December, the fastest since March 2011. Exactly 17% of panellists reported increased input buying. Consequently, stocks of purchases also rose. Even though the pace of stock accumulation was only slight, it was the quickest in two years. Rises in input buying and stocks of purchases were generally associated with higher new order volumes.

Comment

Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI™ survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

"December's final manufacturing PMI picked up for the fourth consecutive month to a 19-month high, thanks to the faster new business flows and the end of destocking. Such a momentum is likely to be sustained in the coming months when infrastructure construction runs into full speed and property market conditions stabilise. This, plus Beijing's reiteration of keeping pro-growth policy in place into the coming year, should support a modest growth recovery of around 8.6% y-o-y in 2013, despite the ongoing external headwinds."

Pollyanna Outlook

I beg to differ with Hongbin Qu.

There is no reason to believe property market conditions will stabilize. Nor is there any reason to believe infrastructure construction will run at "full speed" for any significant length of time.

Indeed, should either of those happen, China's already massive rebalancing problem will just get worse.

Realistic Outlook

For a more realistic assessment on what is happening in China and why, please visit some of the above links.

This modest bounce in China PMI to a number barely above contraction is nothing to get excited about.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gold, Stock Market Up as Fiscal Cliff Can-Kicking Deal at Hand

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 10:42 AM PST

S&P 500 futures are up 24 points (1.7%) and gold is up $22 (1.3%) on news McConnell-Biden Said Close to Deal Except for Sequester

The White House and congressional negotiators have agreed to contours of a deal to avert the fiscal cliff including tax cut extensions, with the remaining sticking point being how to handle automatic military and domestic cuts, according to an official familiar with the talks.

Income tax cuts would be extended on families earning up to $450,000, the official said, with rates rising to 39.6 percent on incomes above that.

Rates on estate taxes would rise to 40 percent, on amounts above $5 million. Extensions of business tax breaks would continue through the end of 2013. There would be a permanent fix to the alternative minimum tax threshold.

The Medicare payment rate for doctors would be extended through 2013.

The contours of the possible deal would generate $600 billion toward deficit reduction. The debate over how to postpone automatic federal spending cuts remains. Democrats propose postponing it for a year, while Republicans want to allow cuts to begin taking effect with the new year.

Debate on How to Further Postpone Begins

In simple terms, Congress will achieve zero budget cuts if Democrats get their way. Republicans appear to be quite fine with that as long as military spending is not cut.

Thus, out of a trillion dollar budget deficit, Congress will have addressed a mere $60 billion a year in revenue and something close to $0 in budget cuts, allegedly avoiding a fiscal cliff but in reality creating a far bigger one a few years down the road.

Last year, before the election, Republicans could have gotten $10 in budget cuts for every $1 of additional revenue. Now they have agreed to tax hikes, getting virtually nothing in return.

The only hope for sanity is the House punts this bill a mile high, but don't count on it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

miercuri, 2 ianuarie 2013

Want to Know More About the Tax Deal?

Seth's Blog : "Here, I made this," is difficult and frightening

"Here, I made this," is difficult and frightening

More Recent Articles

marți, 1 ianuarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

SEO Blog

SEO Blog

Seth's Blog : Do you remember?

Do you remember?

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luni, 31 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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miercuri, 2 ianuarie 2013

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marți, 1 ianuarie 2013

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luni, 31 decembrie 2012

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