Central Perk

luni, 4 martie 2013

Photo of the Day: A Phone Call in the Oval Office

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, March 4, 2013

Tune in to WhiteHouse.gov/Live at 11:10 a.m. ET for the first ever Google+ Hangout with First Lady Michelle Obama.

Photo of the Day: A Phone Call in the Oval Office

President Barack Obama talks on the phone with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in the Oval Office, March 1, 2013. National Security Advisor Tom Donilon and Deputy National Security Advisor Tony Blinken listen at right. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Seth's Blog : "I'm making money, why do more?"

"I'm making money, why do more?"

Because more than you need to makes it personal.

Because work that belongs to you, by choice, is the first step to making art.

Because the choice to do more brings passion to your life and it makes you more alive.

Because if you don't, someone else will, and in an ever more competitive world, doing less means losing.

Because you care.

Because we're watching.

Because you can.

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duminică, 3 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Japan Central Bank Nominee Pledges to Do Whatever Needed to Combat Deflation; Mother of all Pyrrhic Victories

Posted: 03 Mar 2013 06:26 PM PST

Those who thought Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was not serious in his pledge to defeat deflation (and destroy the Yen in the process) need think again.

Haruhiko Kuroda (Abe's nominee to head Japan's central bank) pledges to do Whatever Needed to Combat Japan Deflation.

Haruhiko Kuroda, nominated to be the next Bank of Japan governor, said that a central bank under his leadership would do whatever is needed to combat 15 years of deflation.

"I would like to make my stance clear that we will do whatever we can do," Kuroda, the president of the Asian Development Bank, said in a confirmation hearing in the parliament in Tokyo today.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's nomination of Kuroda has raised expectations for more aggressive monetary easing to revive the world's third-biggest economy after Masaaki Shirakawa exits the job on March 19. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan, the largest party in the upper house, has signaled it will back Kuroda, easing his passage through a split parliament.

Kuroda said in an interview this month that falling prices exacerbate real debt burdens, and give an incentive to companies and households to postpone spending. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in January. The price gauge hasn't advanced 2 percent -- the central bank's new target -- for any year since 1997, when a national sales tax was increased.

Mother of all Pyrrhic Victories

Any country determined to wreck its currency can indeed do just that. However, QE alone will not suffice if all the printed money sits as excess reserves. If QE fails, what's next? More bridges to nowhere?

Regardless, the idea that higher prices are a blessing is blatant stupidity. The last thing aging Japan citizens need is rising prices.

If anything, low interest rates are counterproductive because Japanese savers get zero % on their savings (having less interest income to spend). Sound familiar? It should because Bernanke has the same preposterous ideas.

Once sentiment turns (and it will - but I do not know when), Japan is going to have a hard time preventing the bottom from falling out of the yen. When that happens, the defeat of deflation is going to be the mother of all Pyrrhic victories.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Traffic Slump at Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn; Smaller Plates, Cheaper Items at Olive Garden; Saturation Everywhere

Posted: 03 Mar 2013 11:47 AM PST

High gasoline prices coupled with 2% payroll tax hikes is going to take a bite out of restaurant sales this year. For some chains the slump has already started.

Consider Darden Restaurants, the owner of Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn Steak House. Darden Restaurant Traffic is down an average 4.5, with Red Lobster leading the pack down 7.5%.

Smaller Plates, Cheaper Items at Olive Garden

At Olive Garden, Smaller, Cheaper Plates are on the way, along with new uniforms including a more contemporary black button-down shirt and black slacks.

Don't worry, endless breadsticks remain.

Olive Garden is also creating a new logo and toning down its the "Old World Style" Tuscan stonework and wooden archways that have been a signature part of Olive Garden restaurants since 2000.

Saturation Everywhere

The main problem is saturation. I see endless miles of restaurants on strips nearby. Those restaurants include Steak & Shake, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Pizza Hut, Subway, China Express, Chili's, Chipotle, Panera, and other chains intermixed with some local eateries.

If the problem is saturation (and it is), spending money on architecture style changes, creating a new logo, and the new uniform changes is a waste of money, especially the architectural revisions.

People want good food, fast friendly service, and good value.

To pick up market share, restaurants need to lower prices, not make logo changes. And lower prices will take a bite out of earnings. One final point: as soon as restaurants stop expanding (and they will), the hiring will stop with it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Media voice vs. media company

Media voice vs. media company

Just about everyone is in the media now. If you've published something online, you know what it is to create and spread ideas.

But that doesn't mean you have to become a media company.

Companies seek to maximize. Maximize attention and clicks and profit. Maximize impact and return on investment.

The New York Times is a media company. They make media, sure, but mostly, they're in the business of making a profit. As a result, most of the media they make isn't made because it's important, or because it personally matters to them. No, media companies make media because making media makes money.

Amateur media tends to be a lot more personal, unpredictable and interesting.

The irony, of course, is that in a billion-channel universe, those three things make it far more likely that you will earn attention, connection and trust, which of course makes it more likely you'll earn a living.

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sâmbătă, 2 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China "Fully Prepared for Currency War" Says China's Central Bank Deputy Governor

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 08:23 AM PST

Given the world's central bankers are already in a currency war, a policy statement made by a deputy-governor of China's central bank should not come as a surprise (except for the fact it was publicly and bluntly stated).

Please consider China well-prepared for currency war: official.

China is fully prepared for a looming currency war should it, though "avoidable," really happen, said China's central bank deputy governor Yi Gang late Friday.

A currency war could be avoided, Yi said, if policymakers in major countries observed the consensus, reached at the recent G20 meeting, that monetary policy should primarily serve as a tool for domestic economy.

"China is fully prepared," Yi said. "In terms of both monetary policies and other mechanism arrangement, China will take into full account the quantitative easing policies implemented by central banks of foreign countries."

Nonsense Over Domestic Tools

Yi's statements raise as many questions as they answer. Was the big finger-point at Japan the US, or both?

And what does "fully prepared" mean other than print like mad to infinity? It can hardly mean anything else, but given the US and Japan are already conducting QE like mad (with no exit policy), is the statement an immediate warning?

Look at the fuzziness of Yi's statement "monetary policy should primarily serve as a tool for domestic economy." Isn't that exactly what Japan and the US claim right now?

I ask "what difference does it make?" Indeed, isn't the domestic economy always the reason (albeit severely misguided) for currency debasement?

Debasement turns into "war" as soon as multiple countries are involved.

And that of course is where things are already. Thus, the statements by Yi are perhaps an indication the already ongoing war is about to escalate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

The Bear Essentials of Safety #airnzbear [Video]

Posted: 01 Mar 2013 09:09 PM PST

Bear Grylls goes wild in Air New Zealand Bear essentials of safety video.

Shrek Wedding

Posted: 01 Mar 2013 08:52 PM PST

42 year old Paul Ballas and 30 year old Heidi Koksshal from the European island of Jersey, celebrated their big wedding day with a Shrek-themed wedding ceremony. He went of course as Shrek, and she as Fiona, and the entire party also did their best by choosing other characters from the movie and or characters from Disney-like films.

The couple got the idea for their nuptials from watching the movie with their son Leo. "The essence is that Shrek represents true love. It doesn't matter who you are or what you look like, if the love is there then that is what it is about," says Paul.