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marți, 12 martie 2013

The Guide to US Census Data for Local SEO

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:48 PM PDT

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

As tax time nears in the United States, it’s hard not to wonder what exactly all that money is being spent on. Instead of getting into politics, I’d rather describe something our taxes do pay for and how it can help you plan an effective local SEO strategy.

During the daily grind, we can become accustomed to exclusive data available to us only through analytics platforms, Webmaster tools accounts, and other resources requiring a username, a password, and a mother's maiden name. This private-access mentality makes it easy to overlook that which is freely available to everyone – including our own Census. I’m Harris Schachter (you might know me better as OptimizePrime) and I'd like to show you not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for you.

Uncle Sam's Data

All of the information and images presented from the US Census are free to reproduce unless otherwise noted.

Using Census Data When Planning Local Strategy

During the planning phase of a local strategy, you need to identify which specific localities will serve you best, whether it be local content, social media, community engagement (geographic community & company community), on-site optimization, off-site citation building, link building, or anything else that goes into local SEO.

By using census data, these viable hyper-local markets can be identified before you even publish a single tweet. You can plan micro-campaigns designed to match each of the various cities, counties, towns, or even city blocks in your selected location. This type of analysis is particularly important when considering where to open a new brick-and-mortar establishment.

Demographic data can guide everything from the language and reading level of your content, to the methods by which it should be distributed. Distinct personas for each of the geographic components can be made to help you visualize the potential customers within them. Once armed with this information, local strategies (including everything you are going to learn from GetListed+SEOmoz) can be applied with laser precision.

You can spend hours on Census.gov exploring the myriad databases and tables. It can be overwhelming, so I’ll just demonstrate three of the most useful resources. If you’re an international reader, let this guide serve to motivate you to seek out what is available through your government.

Since it’s been cold lately, and Richmond has as enough plaid and square glasses to rival Seattle, I’ll use hipster snow boots as my example of a locally marketable product, targeting the 20-24 age groups. I’ll look for viable hyper-local markets in the Richmond area since that is where I live, and do most of my local SEO here at Dynamic Web Solutions. I’ll go through each of the three Census tools using this scenario.

1. Interactive Population Map

First is the Interactive Population Map. With this interactive map, you’re able to utilize population data at the most granular views. Currently the data is for 2010, but if you suspect a large population shift since the last data collection you can use proportions instead of volumes to make your observations. The image below shows counties, but you can view data at the following levels (from widest to most specific): national, Indian reservations, congressional districts, counties/municipalities, subdivisions, places, census tracts, census block groups, and census blocks (basically city blocks).

You can segment population data by age, race, ethnicity, and housing status, and compare these features to those of nearby locations.

How to use the Interactive Population Map:

Head over to the map. Enter your location into the Find field, place your area of interest within the cross hairs, and use the on-screen controls to adjust the view and detail level.
Choose any of the segmentation tabs, select a location, and click Compare.
You can compare up to 4 locations to examine their demographics side by side. Once in the compare screen, you can flip between the tabs to view populations by age, race, ethnicity, or housing status for each of your chosen locations.

In my example, I chose Richmond City and the nearby counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Hanover. Since my hipster snow boots business isn’t concerned with any specific ethnicity, race, or housing status, I’ll flip over to age since I am primarily focused on the 20-24 age group.

From the table, I can see the city of Richmond has more people in my target demographic (20-24) than the three neighboring counties. Interesting.

2. County and Business Demographics Interactive Map

Next up is the County and Business Demographics Interactive Map (or CBD Map). This is similar to the interactive population map, but provides more robust information in addition to population, race, ethnicity, age/sex, and housing status. This map layers in three business demographics: industries, business patterns, and raw counts of establishments per industry.

Industries are the general market classifications, such as Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, Manufacturing, Health Care, Real Estate, etc. Business patterns contain data on annual payroll, and employee counts (within a location or industry).

The CBD Map is limited to the county level, but the additional information makes it an essential tool to decide where to focus your marketing efforts. This map can display the number of establishments in each industry, in each location. The capability for local competitive analysis is priceless.

How to use the CBD Map:

Head over to the map. Enter your city, state or zip code into the Find field. It should automatically switch to the County view on the left (under Geographic Levels). Choose any of the top demographic tabs – anyone will do for now.
Select a location and click “Compare” at the bottom of the window.
In the new window that appears, click “Add Topic” to choose your areas of interest.
Once you have your topic areas chosen, go back to the map and select up to 4 more locations.

Going back to our cooler-than-snow snow boots business, I chose Retail Trade from Industries, 20-24 from Age/Sex, and Total Establishments from business patterns. In addition to Richmond City, I again picked the neighboring counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Hanover.

The goal while using the CBD map is to identify areas with large shares of your target demographic, but low business counts for your industry. This is a good indicator of areas with many potential customers, but low competition for them. Using the table, I can do some quick math to rank the four locations along these criteria. The comparison metric to use in this instance is number of (20-24 year old) people per retail trade establishment.

Richmond has 33, Chesterfield has 19, Henrico has 14, and Hanover has 15. Richmond has the greatest number of potential customers per establishment, suggesting comparatively low competition for retail store customers. Interesting.

3. US Economic Census

The final data table is the Economic Census within the American FactFinder collection. This is the most powerful database of the three, and also the most complicated. Data contained here includes everything the interactive maps do but at a much more granular level. Specifically, industries can be further broken down by individual product or service, and how many establishments offer them in any given area. This resource also contains a search bar- a familiar face in an unfamiliar environment.

The FactFinder database is rather complex, so I’ll dive right into how to use it. Because this one is so detailed, the accessibility and recency of data is highly variable, so you may have more or less than what I’ve found.

How to use the Economic Census:

Step 1. Visit the American FactFinder database. Don’t be tempted to use the search bar just yet.

Step 2: Program

Choose the Topics tab.
Select “Economic Census.”

Step 3: Location

Choose your location by selecting the Geographics tab. Use the “Geographic type” dropdown, and pick your level of detail.
Select State from the next dropdown. I’ve selected County and Virginia respectively.
Pick your actual locations from the next dropdown.
Use the “Add to your selections” button to select your criteria.
You’ll see the chosen options in the left sidebar under “Your Selections.”

Step 4: Industry

Select your industry by finding the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) number under Industry Codes.
Do this by using the search bar to find your business. This one is much more detailed than the industry selections of the Interactive Map, so try a few queries until you get a solid match.
For my example, I first searched for “boots" with no luck. I then tried "shoes” and found the codes 4482 for “shoe stores.” Check off the applicable industry code and click “Add.”
Close this window to reveal your search results.

Step 5: Database Results

First, review your selections in the left sidebar.
Check off the source most applicable to you, and make sure it is the most recent version.
Select View.

Step 6: Data!

Finally, we’ve got the goods. First of all, I should warn you not to use your browser’s back button – all of your selections will be lost and the process starts over again. Instead, take note of the “Return to Advanced Search button.” Use this if you want to go back to the search options.

Check out the data columns. Specifically, the most important are: geographic area, number of establishments, and sales.

Data Collected From the Economic Census

Due to the sheer number of search options, every research endeavor will be different. My results had three of the four locations in a data table, and the most recent data is from 2007. Immediately, we can see Chesterfield had 31 shoe stores, Henrico had 47, and the city of Richmond had 32. This is another good indicator for the city of Richmond, since it shows a relatively low number of shoe stores, and we already know it has the greatest volume of our target demographic.

Now let’s look at the sales column for the total sales each location’s shoe stores generated. Using our county population data from earlier, we can calculate how much the average person spends on shoes (customer value) in each location. Keep in mind the population numbers are from 2010 while the sales figures here are from 2007, but hey, we're just making estimations.

Sales, Population, and Businesses

Divide the sales figures by the total county population. I found the average person in Richmond to be worth $101, in Henrico $174, and in Chesterfield $85. Of the three locations, the average Henrico resident spends the most on shoes. But what about our target demographics of 20-24 year olds?

For this calculation, we’ll apply the percent of target population within the total population, and apply it to sales for each location. Although this assumes the different age groups purchase shoes at the same rate, it will give us an estimated percent of sales contributed by our target demographic.

From the first analysis, we found the 20-24 year old group made up 13% of Richmond’s population, 6% of Henrico’s population, and 6% of Chesterfield’s population. After applying these percentages to total shoe sales, we find our target demographic spending $2.7M in Richmond, $3.2M in Henrico, and $1.6M in Chesterfield.

At this point, it might seem wiser to go after Henrico County, since the target demographic spends the most on shoes there, in total. Given the sheer amount of money spent on shoes in that county, I might consider a separate strategy to attract Henrico's business.

However, keep in mind Henrico has 47 shoes stores, while Richmond only has 32, and Chesterfield has 31. Taking this competitive information into account, we can compute the sales generated by the target demographic, for each store in each location. The data translates into $84k in sales per Richmond shoe store, $68k per Henrico store, and $52k per Chesterfield store. This suggests individual shoe stores in Richmond generate more sales from our target demographic than they do in the other two nearby counties. In-ter-est-ing.

Analysis Results

After three rounds of analysis, Richmond looks like the ideal place to set up a shoe store (especially one that sells supa-fly snow boots to young adults).

So, what have we learned from all this? From the data available, I’ve found:

Richmond has a greater volume of people in the target demographic than neighboring counties.
Richmond has more potential customers within the target demographic per retail store than neighboring counties.
A shoe store in Richmond generates more sales from the target demographic than a shoe store in a neighboring county.

Apply the Insights

Now that you've identified the most viable business locations, it's time to incorporate these findings into local strategies. Go after these promising localities by gaining relevancy and ranking through a variety of methods, including:

Hosting events in the chosen location to establish an audience.
Building inbound links from sites which rank well in/for the target area (and be sure to diversify these links).
Doing competitive analysis for the most visible websites in the locations uncovered by the analysis. Go through their backlink profiles for relevant links and try to attain them too.
Encouraging customers to leave reviews, with specific attention to people in the targeted areas. Include the reviewer's location in the review itself to gain more trust and influence among the potential customers.
Engaging with prospects in the identified locations through social media. Find them through various tools like Followerwonk's Twitter bio search and get the conversation going.
Creating content specific to the viable locations. Dedicate a section of your blog for things to do and see in the area, why you like doing business there, interview citizens, government officials, or well known residents. Publishing content about the area can gain you exposure well before your visitors are even looking for your products or services. Once aware of your business, they'll likely keep you in mind at some point down the road.
Optimizing your content with traditional on-site methodologies for the locations uncovered in the analysis (but don't overdo it).
Developing press releases specifically for the target locations and distributing them to online sources like chambers of commerce, colleges and universities, local newspapers, free publications, etc.
Considering mobile users and making sure your site delivers a satisfactory experience for people in the targeted areas. Local and mobile go hand in hand.
Finally (and possibly the most effective in the long-run) is to consider opening a physical store within the location.
- Claim all profiles and listings from data aggregators using consistent NAP citations.
- Use consistent NAP citations on the website itself.
- Consider including the name of the location in a brand name.
- Utilize rich snippets to take full advantage of your new location in the SERP
- Complete your Google+ Local page with proper categorization, and mentions of the location within the business description.
- Modify social media profiles to include this new location.

I encourage you to explore Census.gov, and subscribe to the Census RSS feed to make sure you don’t miss any of their interesting publications. They recently released mobile apps for the true geeks out there (I recommend the iPad app "America's Economy"). Also be sure to check out the data visualization gallery to learn something new or just to get some data vis inspiration.

So the next time a Census taker knocks on your door, answer it! You never know what type of product or business you'll be working with in the future, but chances are good that you'll have data for it.

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Photo of the Day: Taking Bo for a Walk

Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Photo of the Day: Taking Bo for a Walk

Bo, the Obama family dog, follows First Lady Michelle Obama as she walks across the South Lawn of the White House towards the Kitchen Garden, March 11, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

PR4-PR10 Backlinks from Actual PageRank Pages

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Seth's Blog : The moment of highest leverage

The moment of highest leverage

It doesn't happen often, but when it does, don't waste it.

You've already won (or you've already lost). Right now, you can choose to do what's in your heart, you can bring your real work to the world, instead of a lesser version, a version you think the market wants. After all, what do you have to lose?

When it feels like it's hopeless or when it appears to be a lock, why not?

So you you bring your true self to the work, your unadulterated effort, without negative self-talk and the sanding off of the interesting edges. Instead of compromise, you bring us vision.

Of course, when we see that reality, the kamiwaza of what you're able to do when you're not second guessing or giving up, the odds of transformation go way up. In fact, you haven't already lost, because your magical, vulnerable work changes everything.

You won't get this chance again soon (unless you choose to). So go.

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luni, 11 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Japan Machinery Orders Fall 13%, Median Expectation Was 1.7% Decline
Roubini Promotes ECB Currency War and Other Silliness
Rise of the Eurosceptics in Germany; One in Four Would Vote for Anti-Euro Party
Demographic Nightmare; Recession Through Recovery in Pictures

Japan Machinery Orders Fall 13%, Median Expectation Was 1.7% Decline

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 06:08 PM PDT

Bloomberg reports Japan Machinery Orders Fall 13% in Sign of Limits on Investment.

The decline from the previous month, announced by the Cabinet Office today in Tokyo, compared with the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists for a 1.7 percent fall.

Today's data are a reminder that business investment will not drive the recovery, said Izumi Devalier, a Japan economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.

"Looking ahead, we expect accelerating consumption, residential and public investment," Devalier said. Devalier cautioned against reading too much into a single month of "very volatile" data.

I understand the caution about volatility of large orders, but the rest of what Devalier says is suspect.

Have demographics suddenly changed? The answer to that question is clearly "no", so what reason is there to believe residential investment will be on the rise?

What about public investment? Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 250%, and that is the highest ratio of all developed nations. Japan achieved that dubious distinction because it squandered money on "public investment".

Since stupidity often strikes multiple times, I would not totally rule out a surge in public investment, however, I rather doubt it's coming. Recall that Japan's government currently seeks massive tax hikes to pay for what it has already squandered. Moreover, Japanese citizens do not want those hikes. Would they stand for more hikes for more bridges to nowhere?

Accelerating consumer consumption? Why?

I suspect Devalier believes Keynesian claptrap that rising prices are a good thing, but I beg to differ. People do not in general buy things just because the price is going up (there is only so much space to store things). Nor do people avoid buying things simply because prices are falling. If the latter was the case, no one would have bought a computer or a flat screen TV for years.

If Japan gets the price inflation it seeks, but exports do not rise enough to pay for rising energy costs, Japanese savers will be royally screwed (but the stock market may do well, especially in nominal terms).

Stock market aside, this is a very dangerous situation Japan is in, and for the nation as a whole, it's highly likely to end badly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Roubini Promotes ECB Currency War and Other Silliness

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:16 PM PDT

Economist Nouriel Roubini is now actively proposing the ECB enter the global beggar-thy-neighbor currency wars as a solution to the eurozone crisis.

As reported by Yahoo! Fiance ,Roubini stated ECB must cut rates or risk crisis again

The bank would act eventually to avoid the recession getting worse, but risked doing "too little, too late," Roubini said in an interview with CNN's Nina dos Santos.

"They have to cut the policy rate, they have to stimulate the economy, they have to try to weaken the value of the euro," said Roubini, who was credited with predicting the financial crisis of 2008.

"The euro should be 10, 20 or even 30% weaker to restore the competitiveness of the [eurozone] periphery," Roubini said.

With all the world's major central banks using "unconventional" methods to throw money at their economies, Roubini said the ECB could not sit on the sidelines while social tension mounts in weaker eurozone states. That tension is reflected in the Italian protest vote against austerity, and as resentment about the cost of bailouts rises in Germany and other northern states.

"If they are the only [central bank] holding out, then the damage economically and politically will be severe," he said. "The risk is there will be a clash between austerity fatigue in the periphery of the eurozone and bailout fatigue in the core -- the two could clash in a way that could put at risk again the entire eurozone system."

Would Rate Cuts Help?

Roubini may have called the crisis (so did many others), but he sure does not know what to do about it.

Does it matter to any significant degree if interests rates are .5% or even .25% vs. .75%? I think not. More importantly, the notion that a euro 10, 20 or even 30% weaker would "restore the competitiveness of the periphery" is complete silliness.

The problem, as should be obvious, is structural. Rebalancing requires Spain, Italy, Greece (and now France) to become more competitive vs. Germany.

The opposite is happening as noted on February 6 in Germany Rebounds but ... France Economic Implosion Accelerates; Record Decrease in Service Employment in Italy.

The very nature of the eurozone interest rate structure prevents rebalancing in a sensible manner.

Worse yet, Germany insists on policies that will take years, if not decades to bear any fruit. As evidenced by the rise of eurosckptic parties and the Neo-Nazis in Greece, rebalancing cannot and will not wait that long.

Illusion of Eurozone Stabilization

On February 7, I wrote about Illusions of Stabilization.

There is no real stabilization and there is no healing. Rather, the policies of Hollande are so disastrous that some output has shifted to Germany and elsewhere, (coupled perhaps with some inventory replenishment and a temporary stimulus-fueled increase in demand in Asia).

With employment sinking in France, Italy, and Spain, precisely who will buy German exports?

Properly rebalancing will require a shift in production from Germany to the rest of Europe as well as a shift towards more consumption in Germany from the rest of Europe. That cannot and will not happen with the destructive polices of Hollande, and the lack of reforms in Spain and Italy.

Moreover, and as I have noted on many occasions, the entire Euro construct is flawed. Until those flaws are fixed, there is only the illusion of stabilization, and that based on more unbalanced growth.

The only thing that has stabilized (for now) is interest rates, and even that won't last.

On March 6, I wrote Eurozone Downturn Accelerates Despite German Growth; Divergence to France Widest in 15 Years.

Would a 10% drop or even a 30% drop in the euro help Italy, Spain, France, or Greece relative to Germany? How would it? Yet that is where the imbalances are.

Worse yet, Roubini actively encourages the ECB to engage in currency wars as noted by his statement "If they are the only [central bank] holding out, then the damage economically and politically will be severe."

Can the ECB even do what Roubini asks under its charter? Regardless, would Japan, the US, and China all sit for it?

Roubini is not thinking clearly.

What Gives?

It's highly likely Roubini knows what he proposes won't work. If so, what gives?

I propose Roubini is grasping at straws, hoping against hope for some miracle, because he is still wedded to the preposterous notion the eurozone must be preserved at all costs.

Roubini needs to admit the euro is a fatally flawed currency and the eurozone must break apart before there is any hope of rebalancing.

As it stands, he is just another "let's do more of what isn't working" economist, as if doing something stupid works better if done with increasing force.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rise of the Eurosceptics in Germany; One in Four Would Vote for Anti-Euro Party

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 10:55 AM PDT

With the EU scrambling to contain anti-euro sentiment in Italy, there has been a notable rise of euroscepticism in other places, even Germany. Reuters reports One in four Germans would back anti-euro party.

One in four Germans would be ready to vote in September's federal election for a party that wants to quit the euro, according to an opinion poll published on Monday that highlights German unease over the costs of the euro zone crisis.

The poll conducted by TNS-Emnid for the weekly Focus magazine showed 26 percent of Germans would consider backing a party that wanted to take Germany out of the euro and as many as four in 10 Germans in the 40-49 age bracket would do so.

"This suggests there may be potential here for a new protest party," Emnid chief Klaus Peter Schoeppner told Focus.

A new eurosceptic movement called 'Alternative for Germany' (AfD) comprising mostly academics and business people is due to hold its first meeting later on Monday in a northern suburb of Frankfurt.

One of its founders, economics professor Bernd Lucke, told Focus he had no concern that it would be able to raise the required 2,000 signatures in each German region to take part in September's federal election.

AfD's website www.alternativefuer.de has been live since late last week and its Twitter account (@wahlalternativ1) counts 690 followers.

"Let's put an end to this euro!" is the message on the front page of its website.

690 followers is certainly not a lot of followers. This leads me to believe most Germans do not even know about the party. Certainly German mainstream media would like to keep it that way.

If that poll is accurate however, and I suspect it is, there is plenty of time for AfD to spread like wildfire, just as happened in Italy.

In case you missed it, anti-euro sentiment in also on the rise in the Netherlands. Please see Not Enough Fingers to Contain the Leak in the Dike.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Demographic Nightmare; Recession Through Recovery in Pictures

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 12:42 AM PDT

Please consider a table of various employment statistics for February of each year between 2008 and 2013.

Year	Population	Labor Force	Not in LF	Employed	FT Employed	PT Employed	Unemployed	SNAP
2008	232,809	152,503	80,306	144,550	119,452	25,098	7,953	26,316
2009	234,913	153,804	81,109	140,105	112,947	27,158	13,699	28,223
2010	236,998	153,194	83,804	137,203	109,100	28,103	15,991	33,490
2011	238,851	152,635	86,216	138,093	110,731	27,361	14,542	40,302
2012	242,435	154,114	88,322	140,684	112,587	28,096	13,430	44,709
2013	244,828	154,727	90,100	142,228	114,191	28,037	12,500	46,609
Change	12,019	2,224	9,794	-2,322	-5,261	2,939	4,547	20,293
OC	9,915	923	8,991	2,123	1,244	879	-1,199	18,386

Abbreviations and Notes

LF - Labor Force
FT - Full-Time
PT- Part-Time
SNAP stands for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, widely known as Food Stamps.
Change is the difference between since the start of the recession and now, using February 2008 as the approximate start although the official start is a couple months earlier.
OC is the change in Obama years (2009 and 2013), February to February.

All of the columns except "SNAP" are BLS Unadjusted Numbers.

SNAP data is fiscal year annual data. I used fiscal year 2012 for the 2013 column (and so forth for the other rows).

All of the numbers are in thousands.

In The Last 5 Years

The Civilian Institutional Population Rose 9.9 Million
The Labor Force Rose .9 Million
Those Not in the Labor Force Rose 9.8 Million
Employment Fell by 2.3 Million
Full-Time Employment Fell by 5.3 Million
Part-Time Employment Rose by .9 Million
Unemployment Rose by 4.5 Million
Food Stamp Usage Rose by 20.3 Million

Non-Workers to Workers

Let's consider the ratio of workers to non-workers. Workers are those employed, non-workers are everyone else (the unemployed + those not in the labor force).

In the last five years, the number of non-workers rose by 14.3 million while the number of workers fell by 5.3 million.
In 2008 there were 144.6 million workers supporting 88.3 million not working.
There are now roughly 142.2 million workers supporting 102.6 million not working.

Ratio of Employed to Not Working

Reader Tim Wallace put together a nice chart showing the ratio of those employed to those not working.

click on chart for sharper image

Demographic Nightmare

In the year 2000, there were 1.78 workers for every non-worker. Now there are only 1.39 workers for every non-worker. Meanwhile, food stamp usage is up from 17.2 million to 46.6 million, and medical costs are soaring.

Wallace comments "the economic burden on the 1.39 is only going to increase unless spending is put under control and the ratio moves back to a higher average number."

Things looked OK as long as the ratio of workers to non-workers was rising. It was a demographic "boomer-bubble" illusion fueled by the entry of women taking jobs.

The ratio of workers to non-workers is now falling, as are real wages. Meanwhile, part-time employment is rising, and costs as well as promises have soared.

The only realistic way to solve this problem is to cut expenses. That means a cut in medical benefits coupled with a hike in the retirement age.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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marți, 12 martie 2013

The Guide to US Census Data for Local SEO

The Guide to US Census Data for Local SEO

Using Census Data When Planning Local Strategy

1. Interactive Population Map

How to use the Interactive Population Map: