Central Perk

sâmbătă, 27 aprilie 2013

Weekly Address: Time to Replace the Sequester with a Balanced Approach to Deficit Reduction

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Weekly Address: Time to Replace the Sequester with a Balanced Approach to Deficit Reduction

President Obama says that because Republicans in Congress allowed a series of harmful, automatic budget cuts—called the sequester—to take effect, important programs like Head Start are now forced to reduce their services. After travelers were stuck for hours in airports and on planes this past week, members of Congress passed a temporary band-aid measure to stop the cuts that impact airlines — but they must do more to stop cuts to vital services for the American people. That’s why it’s time for a balanced approach to deficit reduction that makes smarter cuts and reforms in the tax code while creating jobs and strengthening the middle class.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

White House Science Fair: On Tuesday, President Obama welcomed our country’s youngest scientists and innovators for the 3^rd Annual White House Science Fair. More than 100 students from more than 40 states joined the President for the all-day celebration. The President toured the fair and even hopped on a bicycle-powered, emergency water-sanitation station developed by high-school students Payton Karr and Kiona Elliott of Oakland Park, Florida.

The President launched the White House Science Fair in 2009 as way to help encourage science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education. In December of 2012 the Administration announced a goal of one million new STEM graduates in the next decade, and the President’s plan works for educational opportunities and support for women and underrepresented minorities.

Teacher of the Year: On Wednesday, the President invited the state and national teachers of the year to the White House. Jeff Charbonneau from Zillah, Washington received the honor of the 2013 National Teacher of the Year. Over a decade ago, Zillah High School did not have a single engineering class and a struggling science curriculum, but 11 years ago Charbonneau returned to his hometown to teach at Zillah High School determined to change this. Today, science enrollment is up and students are graduating with college-level science credits. The President thanked all of the educators for their hard work and commitment in the classroom.

I want you guys to know that the country appreciates you. The kids appreciate you. The parents appreciate you. What you do matters. It's critical to our success as a country, but most importantly, it's critical to those kids themselves. I cannot think of something more important than reaching that child who maybe came in uninspired, and suddenly, you've inspired them.

Texas Memorial Service: On Thursday, President Obama delivered remarks at a memorial service for emergency first responders killed during the tragic explosion at a fertilizer plant in West, Texas. The President praised the people of West for their unity and their ability "to stand tall in times of unimaginable adversity." The President provided comfort to the people of West and amid recent crisis, he assured West the country shares their pain.

Today our prayers are with the families of all who we've lost -- the proud sons and daughters of West whose memories will live on in our hearts. Parents who loved their kids and leaders who served their communities. They were young and old, from different backgrounds and different walks of life.

George W. Bush Presidential Library: On Thursday, the President and the First Lady traveled to Dallas for the dedication of the George W. Bush Presidential Library. President Bush was joined by former Presidents Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, as well as former First Ladies Roslyn Carter, Barbara Bush, Hillary Clinton, and Laura Bush. President Obama thanked President Bush for his service and love of country, while also pointing out his personality.

"He knows who he is," said President Obama. "He doesn't put on any pretenses. He takes his job seriously, but he doesn’t take himself too seriously. He is a good man."

Amir of Qatar: On Tuesday, President Obama welcomed Hamad bin Khalifa al- Thani, the Amir of Qatar, to discuss issues covering commerce, trade and education. The two leaders also talked about the urgency to end the slaughter in Syria and finding a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The President thanked Qatar for their friendship and says he looks forward to working with Qatar for many years to come.

National Park Week: Last Saturday marked the start of National Park Week, an annual tradition celebrating our country's great natural beauty and cultural landscapes. By being involved, you can help preserve the beauty, history and values of America and protect national parks for future generations.

There are national parks located in and around America's major cities, including San Francisco, New York City, Santa Monica, Chicago, St. Louis, Miami, San Antonio, Baltimore and Washington, DC.

Take a look at the National Park Week event calendar and plan your visit for today!

Bombings in Boston: Last Friday, the President addressed the country after the capture of the second suspect in the Boston Marathon bombing. President Obama vowed to find more answers and ensure the American people are safe.

All in all, this has been a tough week. But we've seen the character of our country once more. And as President, I'm confident that we have the courage and the resilience and the spirit to overcome these challenges -- and to go forward, as one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

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Seth's Blog : Competence vs. possibility

Competence vs. possibility

As we get more experienced, we get better, more competent, more able to do our thing.

And it's easy to fall in love with that competence, to appreciate it and protect it. The pitfall? We close ourselves off from possibility.

Possibility, innovation, art--these are endeavors that not only bring the whiff of failure, they also require us to do something we're not proven to be good at. After all, if we were so good at it that the outcome was assured, there'd be no sense of possibility.

We often stop surprising ourselves (and the market) not because we're no good anymore, but because we are good. So good that we avoid opportunities that bring possibility.

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vineri, 26 aprilie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Jim Chanos: China: The Edifice Complex - Wine Country Conference Presentation
Moving Ahead with "Pension Progress"
Consumer Prices Dip Another .9% in Japan; Will It Take Until 2015 for Japan to Experience Price Inflation?

Jim Chanos: China: The Edifice Complex - Wine Country Conference Presentation

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 12:25 PM PDT

Jim Chanos' speech, "China: The Edifice Complex", is available at Wine Country Conference Speaker Presentations.

Click on the link and scroll down to find the correct video. Allow 45 minutes or so for viewing.

The videos are the actual presentations, and we are making a couple of them available each week for three weeks.

John Hussman's presentation "An Unstable Equilibrium" was posted last week.
My Presentation "A Brief Lesson in History" is also available as are my "Opening Remarks".

Speaker presentation material, Yahoo! Finance media interviews, and associated articles on Advisor Perspectives are now available online at Wine Country Conference Speaker Slides.

If you enjoy the videos and slides please consider making a Donation to the Les Turner ALS Foundation. Specify "Mish Campaign" on the donation to earmark funds for research.

All told, we raised nearly $500,000 for ALS research, subject to final audit. $100,000 of that came from a very generous matching donation from the Hussman Foundation.

Thanks again for a successful 2013 WCC and we look forward to many more! The 2014 conference will raise money for autism research and programs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Moving Ahead with "Pension Progress"

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 11:22 AM PDT

Buried in a transportation bill that President Obama signed on July 6, 2012, was a change to make it appear pension plans are better funded than they really are.

The bill was called Map-21 "Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act".

Here is a catchy logo and stated goals.

Supposedly the three core principles of the bill are:

Raise the bar to enter the industry and operate on our roads;
Hold motor carrier and drivers to the highest safety standards to continue operations; and
Remove the highest risk drivers, vehicles, and carriers from our roads and prevent them from operating.

MAP-21 took effect October 1, 2012. Budget is $561 million in fiscal year (FY) 2013 and $572 million in FY 2014 for the Agency's administrative expenses and grant programs.

Pension Progress?

So what does this have to do with pensions? Nothing of course (except for the fact that this is another one of those bills that you have to pass to see what's in it, and more importantly how the bill works in real life.)

Buried in the Text of Map-21 is SEC. 40312. PENSION FUNDING STABILIZATION.

"(I) IN GENERAL- If a segment rate described in clause (i), (ii), or (iii) with respect to any applicable month (determined without regard to this clause) is less than the applicable minimum percentage, or more than the applicable maximum percentage, of the average of the segment rates described in such clause for years in the 25-year period ending with September 30 of the calendar year preceding the calendar year in which the plan year begins, then the segment rate described in such clause with respect to the applicable month shall be equal to the applicable minimum percentage or the applicable maximum percentage of such average, whichever is closest. The Secretary shall determine such average on an annual basis and may prescribe equivalent rates for years in any such 25-year period for which the rates described in any such clause are not available."

No one reading that would likely figure out the implication (at least without a great deal of effort). However I can give you a real life example.

Implications of the Bill

Reader Mark writes.

Hello Mish

I wasn't aware that the federal laws had been altered to make the pensions seem more solvent.

Apparently there is a new federal law, MAP-21 (Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st century Act), that changes how pension plans are allowed to project future earnings/liabilities based on the interest rate calculation period.

Attached is a recent notice we received as plan participants, and how our pension plan magically improved due to the law.

Mark

Map-21 Real Life Progress Report

click on image for better view

Details

This company went from being 77.80% funded to 90.93% funded.
This company had a shortfall of $713 million but it's now $249 million.
The company's minimum contribution dropped from $197 million to $123 million.

How did this magic happen?

Easy: Prior to Map-21 pension plans had to determine liabilities based on a 2-year average of interest rates. After Map-21 companies could use a 25-year average of interest rates. As a result, companies get to contribute less when interest rates are low.

I would like to point out this is precisely when companies ought to be contributing more! It is extremely difficult to meet plan assumptions when corporate bond yields are in the gutter.

Ain't "Transportation" Grand?

Here's two more questions: What was the "real" purpose of this bill? Did it have anything to do with transportation?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Consumer Prices Dip Another .9% in Japan; Will It Take Until 2015 for Japan to Experience Price Inflation?

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 01:11 AM PDT

In spite of fact the Yen is down about 12% on the year, consumer prices in Japan are still falling and some are already clamoring for still more monetary stimulus.

Please consider Bank of Japan Sees Inflation Nearing Target in 2015.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food slid 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.4 percent decline. Overall prices dropped 0.9 percent. The BOJ this month said that it expects prices to keep declining for "the time being."

Eisuke Sakakibara, an ex-Finance Ministry colleague, has predicted Kuroda will fail to achieve the 2 percent price goal, and former BOJ board member Atsushi Mizuno sees the central bank hitting a "wall of reality" as bond purchases escalate risks of a market bubble.

Policy makers may come under pressure to expand stimulus should prices continue to drop.

"It's unrealistic -- they won't be able to reach their target in two years, or even in five," said Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo and a former BOJ official. Extra easing may be needed as early as October, when the BOJ releases new price forecasts, he said.

Policy board members themselves are divided over the outlook for inflation, with some anticipating that consumer prices won't even rise at half the rate they set as a target this month. While the highest of their projections for fiscal 2015 is for a 2.3 percent consumer-price gain excluding the tax increase, the lowest is 0.8 percent.

Belief Bubble?

This is really quite stunning. It seems no one believes the Bank of Japan can do anything to stop prices from falling. JPMorgan chief Japan economist thinks Japan will fail to hit price targets for another 5 years!

Wow. This is precisely the kind of sentiment one sees at the end of trends. Nearly everyone thinks the trend will last forever, and nothing can stop it.

Instead, I suggest Japan will eventually succeed in spades and will be extremely unhappy with the result once it happens.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

Why You Should Use Facebook As Your Main Small Business Marketing Platform?
Powerful Local Business SEO & Content Marketing Strategies
Just How Secure Is a Virtual Private Network?
The Best Android App for SEO

Why You Should Use Facebook As Your Main Small Business Marketing Platform?

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 05:38 AM PDT

As a small business, marketing is an important aspect of your business. If you do not continually market your business, it will be difficult for you to gain new customers and increase awareness about your brand. Social media websites, Facebook in particular, are great resources for small businesses when looking...
Read more »

Powerful Local Business SEO & Content Marketing Strategies

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 05:14 AM PDT

Ever since the Google panda and penguin have more and greater number of challenges for the online business. But, not only they need to target the keywords and they need to do without sounding like schlepping Google with an abundance of the out of the search phrases. The true fact...
Read more »

Just How Secure Is a Virtual Private Network?

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 04:37 AM PDT

Online security is not just an issue for large companies that need to worry about cyber-attackers breaching their confidential information, but is extremely crucial for everyone. Email accounts, stored banking information and other crucial data reside within our PCs, Macs and mobile devices including tablets and smartphones. Every day, this...
Read more »

The Best Android App for SEO

Posted: 26 Apr 2013 01:52 AM PDT

"Today, most mobile or Smartphone users tends to go for Android based handsets to be able to conduct business. The demand for SEO applications is going up at an alarming rate. The article below brings you up and close to the kind of best SEO apps available for your Android...
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sâmbătă, 27 aprilie 2013