sâmbătă, 4 mai 2013

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Is one of Hollywood's beloved icons: Audrey Hepburn. May 4th would've marked her 84th birthday but her inspiring quotes and style are eternally pinnable. Here's a lesser-known photo of her goofing off to put a smile on your face.

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May 2013 Mozscape Index Is Live!

May 2013 Mozscape Index Is Live!


May 2013 Mozscape Index Is Live!

Posted: 03 May 2013 06:13 AM PDT

Posted by bradfriedman

Hey Mozheads, Brad here! It's a beautiful Friday here in Seattle, and I hope the day finds you well wherever you are.

We've got a May Mozscape index for you to check out! As always, the new data can be seen on Open Site Explorer, the Mozbar, your PRO campaigns, and the Mozscape API.

This is a very special release, you guys. This is the first Mozscape index that was processed by our virtual private cloud in Virginia! This is a big part of our long-term strategy to streamline our processing for maximum freshness and value. For now, some of our indexes will be from our Elastic Compute Cloud clusters and some will be from our VPC in Virginia while we figure out how best to use our resources.

Our histogram shows that the index was crawled from the second half of March through the first half of April.

Crawl histogram for May 3, 2013 Mozscape index

And now, the juicy details -- metrics for this latest index:

  • 90,875,257,743 (91 billion) URLs
  • 8,514,925,232 (8.5 billion) Subdomains
  • 163,482,796 (163 million) Root Domains
  • 917,461,264,950 (917 billion) Links
  • Followed vs. Nofollowed
    • 2.15% of all links found were nofollowed
    • 56.4% of nofollowed links are internal
    • 43.6% are external
  • Rel Canonical - 14.83% of all pages use a rel=canonical tag
  • The average page has 76 links on it
    • 65.49 internal links on average
    • 10.95 external links on average

And here are the correlations with Google's US search results:

  • Page Authority - 0.36
  • Domain Authority - 0.19
  • MozRank - 0.24
  • Linking Root Domains - 0.30
  • Total Links - 0.25
  • External Links - 0.29

Please feel free to leave your thoughts and comments! And check out a list of our previous index updates with metrics here.

Have a great weekend, everybody, and May the 4th be with you!


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Weekly Address: Fixing our Immigration System and Expanding Trade in Latin America

The White House Saturday, May 4, 2013
 

Weekly Address: Fixing our Immigration System and Expanding Trade in Latin America

President Obama describes the incredible opportunities to create middle-class jobs in America by deepening our economic ties and expanding trade in Latin America and discusses recent Senate bill that takes commonsense steps to fix our broken immigration system.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch this week's Weekly Address

Mexico & Costa Rica Trip: On Thursday, President Obama started a three-day trip to Mexico and Costa Rica for his first visit to Latin America of the second term. During the trip, the President hopes to reinforce the deep cultural, familial, and economic ties we share with Mexico and Central America.

Yesterday, the President had a bilateral meeting with Mexican President Peña Nieto at Palacio National in Mexico City. The bulk of his discussions in Mexico will cover the economy, and in Costa Rica, the President will meet with Central American leaders, who are important partners in improving foreign policy and the economy.

Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications, previewed the trip before leaving Washington. Check out the video on YouTube.

Transportation Secretary Nominated: On Tuesday, the President nominated the Mayor of Charlotte, Anthony Foxx, for Transportation Secretary. As mayor, Foxx modernized the electric train service to Charlotte’s downtown area, expanded the international airport, and extended the city’s light rail system. The President hopes cities can mimic the work done in Charlotte to attract more business, create more jobs, and stay competitive in the global economy.

Our top priority as a nation right now is doing everything we can to grow our economy and create good jobs and rebuild opportunity for the middle class. And one of the best ways we can do that is to put more Americans back to work rebuilding our infrastructure.

New FHFA and FCC Heads Picked: On Wednesday, the President announced the nominations of Representative Melvin Watt, as Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), and Tom Wheeler, as Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

Watt served for 20 years as a member of the congressional committee that oversees housing policy and will be responsible for looking over mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The President will look for Wheeler to head the FCC to ensure American businesses and workers have “the tools they need to compete in the 21st century economy.”

Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative Tapped: On Thursday, the President announced his nominations of Penny Pritzker as Secretary of Commerce and Mike Froman as U.S. Trade Representative.

Pritzker is one of "our country’s most distinguished business leaders" with more than 25 years of management experience in real estate, finance, and hospitality.

If confirmed as U.S. Trade Representative, Froman, will bring with him over two decades in both the public and private sectors.  The President described him as "one of the world’s foremost experts on our global economy" who pushes until "he’s delivered the best possible deal for American businesses and American works."

Hiring More Veterans: On Wednesday, President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Biden, and Dr. Jill Biden participated in a Joining Forces employment event announcing new hiring commitments for veterans and military spouses. Two years ago, the President challenged the private sector to hire or train 100,000 unemployed veterans or their spouses by the end of 2013. The First Lady announced American companies achieved this goal eight months ahead of schedule. To date, 290,000 veterans or military spouses have been hired by the private sector, almost triple the original goal.

At the event, the First Lady continued the call to action and said American companies have committed to hire or train 435,000 veterans or military spouses over the next five years.

Joining Forces is a comprehensive national initiative to serve our service members and their families. Check out Joining Forces to find simple ways you can help veterans and military families.

Open for Questions: On Wednesday, President Obama held a press conference in the Brady Briefing Room covering a range of issues. The President responded to questions pertaining to Syria and our national security, the Boston Marathon bombing, gun legislation, health care, and immigration reform.  Watch the full press conference here and read the President’s full remarks here.

Correspondents' Dinner: On Saturday, President Obama poked fun at himself at the annual White House Correspondents' Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton. The President was joined by host Conan O’Brien, First Lady Michelle Obama, members of the media, and a collection of celebrities. During his remarks, he shared a promo for Steven Spielberg’s follow-up to "Lincoln" called "Obama."

You can watch the President’s full remarks on YouTube and read his remarks here.

150th Anniversary of National Academy of Sciences: On Monday, the President delivered remarks at the National Academy of Sciences on its 150th anniversary. The President thanked the Academy for its contributions and for helping create a strong economy, improving our health, and protecting our environment.

For 150 years, you’ve strived to answer big questions, solve tough problems, not for yourselves but for the benefit of the nation.  And that legacy has endured from the Academy’s founding days.  And when you look at our history, you’ve stepped up at times of enormous need and, in some cases, great peril.

Stay Connected


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vineri, 3 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Obamacare Affects Part-Time Employment Yet Again; Nullification Bill Passes South Carolina House; Analysis of Healthcare Penalty Rates

Posted: 03 May 2013 02:04 PM PDT

Obamacare and Part-Time Jobs Yet Again

At a business level, the penalty for not offering a qualified healthcare plan is $2,000 per person, for companies that have more than 30 full-time employees. 

As I have discussed before, Obamacare is behind the surge in part-time employment as corporations have been cutting hours worked and hiring more part-time workers to make up the difference.

Part-time employment rose this month by a whopping 441,000 as private average weekly hours fell 0.2 to 34.4 hours and average weekly earnings fell from $824.52 to $821.13 due to fewer hours worked.

For details see Jobs +165,000, Part-Time Employment +441,000; Unemployment Rate 7.5%; Dow Tops 15,000

Nullification Bill Passes South Carolina House

A constitutional showdown may be coming up as South Carolina House passes bill making 'Obamacare' implementation a crime.
The South Carolina state House passed a bill Wednesday that declares President Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to be "null and void," and criminalizes its implementation.

The state's Freedom of Health Care Protection Act intends to "prohibit certain individuals from enforcing or attempting to enforce such unconstitutional laws; and to establish criminal penalties and civil liability for violating this article."

The measure permits the state Attorney General, with reasonable cause, "to restrain by temporary restraining order, temporary injunction, or permanent injunction" any person who is believed to be causing harm to any person or business with the implementation of Obamacare.

Earlier this year in her state of the state address, Gov. Nikki Haley said that South Carolina does not want and cannot afford the president's plan, "not now, not ever."

"To that end, we will not pursue the type of government-run health exchanges being forced on us by Washington," she said. "Despite the rose-colored rhetoric coming out of D.C., these exchanges are nothing more than a way to make the state do the federal government's bidding in spending massive amounts of taxpayer dollars on insurance subsidies that we can't afford."
IRS the Enforcer

The court ruled Obamacare a tax because the IRS collects the penalty if people opt out of the system. The penalty will come on Federal income tax returns. Still, it will be curious to see precisely how this would be handled.

Analysis of Penalty Rates

Aside from South Carolina, who will opt out of the system, and what happens then? The answer involves a comparison of various penalty rates.

At an individual level, Fact Check notes the minimum penalty for not having insurance in 2014 is a mere $95. Government will probably waste far more than that attempting to figure out who has insurance and who doesn't.

For 2014 anyway, regardless of what South Carolina does or does not do, low income people will likely opt out across the board if their employer does not provide insurance.

The minimum penalty for 2015 will be $325 and for 2016 and beyond, $695 indexed per inflation.

Fact Check notes the tax is higher for higher incomes "But the penalty can never exceed the cost of the national average premiums for the lowest-cost bronze plans being offered through the new insurance exchanges called for under the law."

For a couple making $100,000, income thresholds might mean a combined penalty of about $2,000 compared to insurance costs of roughly $10,000 for family coverage based on models for state exchanges.

At upper income levels, healthy people may compare the cost of insurance with higher penalties and make the decision to opt out.

Here is an interesting point: "The law prohibits the IRS from seeking to put anybody in jail or seizing their property for simple refusal to pay the tax. The law says specifically that taxpayers "shall not be subject to any criminal prosecution or penalty" for failure to pay, and also that the IRS cannot file a tax lien (a legal claim against such things as homes, cars, wages and bank accounts) or a "levy" (seizure of property or bank accounts)."

In addition to encouraging more part-time work, the law as written is begging for noncompliance regardless of what states like South Carolina do.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Jobs +165,000, Part-Time Employment +441,000; Unemployment Rate 7.5%; Dow Tops 15,000

Posted: 03 May 2013 09:14 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 165,000 a reasonably good but not spectacular print. In contrast, the household survey showed a huge gain of 293,000 jobs.

Once again we see a huge surge in involuntary part-time employment of 278,000. Voluntary part-time employment rose by another 163,000.

Voluntary plus involuntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 441,000 jobs. Take away part-time jobs and there is not all that much to brag about. Indeed, full-time employment fell once again, this month by 148,000. 

The civilian labor force rose by 210,000 for a change, thus the actual number of unemployed only fell by 83,000 (293,000 - 210,000), enough to lower the unemployment rate 0.1 percentage points to 7.5%.

The Participation Rate was flat at 63.3%, a low dating back to 1979.

Duration of unemployment numbers showed a statistical anomaly this month. Unemployment in the 27 weeks or over category reportedly fell by 258,000 while unemployment for 15-26 weeks rose by 230,000. Color me very skeptical of these numbers.

The stock market was giddy over jobs, with the Dow topping 15,000 for the first time. Then again the stock market has generally been giddy over any news, good bad or indifferent.

April BLS Jobs Report at a Glance

  • Payrolls +165,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Employment +293,000 - Household Survey
  • US Unemployment -83,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work +278,000 - Household Survey;
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work +163,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.1 - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment +0.1 to 13.9% - Household Survey
  • The Civilian Labor Force +210,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force -31,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate +0.0 at 63.3 - Household Survey


Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,604,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,645,000
  • In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,686,000 to 11,742,000 (a drop of 859,000)
  • Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,353,000 - a decline of 687,000 from a year ago
  • Percentage of long-term unemployment is 37.4%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
  • 7,916,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 7,694,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.


April 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Month to Month Changes



click on chart for sharper image

Hours and Wages

Private average weekly hours fell 0.2 to 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings rose $0.04 to $23.87. Average weekly earnings fell from $824.52 to $821.13 due to fewer hours worked.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013



Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Household Survey Data



Decline in Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 10%. In addition, there are 7,916,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 7,694,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.5%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 13.9%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are improving, yet remain much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Year of the Yuan?

Posted: 03 May 2013 02:33 AM PDT

Last month I received a lot of emails from readers regarding articles on a new currency relationship between Australia and China allowing direct convertibility of Australian dollars into Yuan.
In what may mark the beginning of a historic shift, Australia appears ready to bypass the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency and allow for the direct convertibility of the Australian dollar into the Chinese yuan.

"Reserve currency" is the term used to describe a currency that many governments hold significant amounts of in foreign exchange reserves.

By directly converting its currency into Chinese currency, Australia's businesses will be able to cut costs and the inconvenience of changing foreign-currency earnings into dollars, thereby encouraging and accelerating even more business with China.
Year of the Yuan?

Two days ago RT had a similar story Year of the yuan: China's explosive currency goes global.
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced in April it will transfer 5 percent of its foreign currency reserves ($2.1 billion) into Chinese bonds, deepening ties with its Pacific neighbor and biggest trade partner, and reflecting a global shift to the yuan.

The move is an "important milestone in deepening our financial and economic linkages with China," Australia's Treasurer Wayne Swan said in an emailed statement to Bloomberg.

China and Australia are major trading partners, so an investment in Chinese currency reserves will benefit transactions between the two countries. Now, they can conduct business transactions directly from yuan to Australian dollar, cutting out the middle man, the US dollar or euro.

Significant Move?

Is this a significant announcement? No, not really. For starters, China's forex currency reserves are worth about $3.4 trillion. Are we are supposed to believe another $1-2 billion is significant?

End of US "Free Lunch"?

Is this the end of the US reserve currency free lunch? No, not really. People do not understand the reserve currency is more of a curse than a blessing. The US would love nothing more than China and Japan to stop buying treasuries. If they did, the Yuan and Yen would rise, and that is precisely what the Fed and Congress wants.

Function of Math

Third, and as I have explained on numerous occasions, currency reserves and trade patterns are a function of math.

For example, the US runs a trade deficit and Japan and China accumulate US dollar assets (typically US treasuries) as a result.

Australia Balance of Trade

Consider this balance of trade chart for Australia.

Australia Balance on Merchandise Trade with the United States Chart


In spite of a commodities slowdown (see Australia Manufacturing Collapses as Commodity Supercycle Stalls), Australia has an increasing trade surplus with China.

It is only logical for Australia to want to conduct business in Yuan and hold extra reserves in Yuan.

Australia is dumping US dollars. And everyone one else will too. So the story goes.

Really? No not really. These stories are hype from hyperinflationists and US dollar bears who do not understand simple trade math. Yet they get repeated over, and over, and over, and every time I receive a number of emails on it.

Will more trade be conducted in additional currencies? Yes, that is happening. Is this the beginning of end of the US dollar as world's reserve currency? Not a chance.

The Yuan is not convertible, China does not have huge highly liquid bond markets, the US has the largest economy on the planet, and no other country wants the curse that comes with having the world's reserve currency.

For further discussion, please see ...


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com