Seth's Blog : The thermostat and the frying pan

 

The thermostat and the frying pan

If you want to cool your house to 68 degrees fahrenheit quickly, setting the thermostat to 62 degrees isn't going to get it temperate any faster than if you set it to 68. It blows full cold until it hits the number, then it stops. (For those down under where it is winter, the opposite is also true--extreme thermostat settings won't warm you up any faster).

Frying pans don't work that way. Turning the temperature on the burner all the way up will certainly heat up that pan faster.

Ah, an analogy!

There is significant pressure on marketers to get it done fast. And so the inclination to spend a lot, to race around, to turn the thermostat to its most extreme state. Yelling, basically.

But all the yelling doesn't build your brand faster. In fact, it might do quite the opposite. Trusted brands don't get there by spending their whole budget on one Super Bowl ad. Valuable marketing campaigns are the result of time and user experience, not media and more media. Tweeting more often doesn't make your tweets have more resonance.

On the other hand, product design and user interaction definitely benefit from the frying pan approach. Extraordinary products, remarkable stories, intense connection via user interaction--these things actually do scale quickly.

The movie business has seduced itself into believing that they can turn the thermostat to absolute zero and use a massive media push to make a moribund movie work. They can't. They'd be far better off putting the risk and the effort into making movies worth talking about instead.

Social media is a marathon, a gradual process in which you build a reputation. The best time to start was a while ago. The second best time to start is today. But turning it up to 11 isn't going to get you there faster.

 

     

• Email to a friend •

More Recent Articles

• "I get it"
• Angry is a habit
• Ping me when it's broken
• A handful of tools
• How do you want to die?

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.

---

Click here to safely unsubscribe from "Seth Godin's Blog on marketing, tribes and respect." Click here to view mailing archives, here to change your preferences, or here to subscribe • Privacy

---

---

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

---

• Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday
• Greece Tax Filing Bureaucracy in Action
• Superman Joins a Union
• Germany Election Update: AfD Soars in Online Poll; Is Merkel Toast?

Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:27 PM PDT As most of you know, I lost my wife Joanne on May 16 last year to ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease. We were happily married for 27 years. Joanne's three closest friends, Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie all wanted me to move on, have fun, meet someone and enjoy life. But where does one who is 59 years old find someone? The bar scene may work for someone 21 to 35. For someone 59, the bar scene is a near-certain strikeout. There are numerous online services but most of the horror stories speak for themselves. I do have a close friend who was "successful" on the exact 100th match. No thanks. I decided to try a place called Selective Search. I found them doing a search for executive matching. There are other high-end matching services, but I liked the Selective Search model. One key difference between Selective Search and other executive matching services is only the men pay. The advantages and disadvantages of such an approach should be obvious. The advantage to men is there are far more women in the system. The advantage to women is they do not pay and thus have nothing to lose. Selective Search interviews every candidate and they weed out men who are not seriously looking for a relationship; they weed out women who appear to be gold-diggers, and they weed out people with unrealistic goals (for example a 60 year-old overweight man who wants to find a 23-year-old beauty-queen match). My Criteria Preferably, I wanted someone with a nice smile and slender build, who likes to travel, likes golf, likes to kayak, and likes to play cards. My "dealbreakers" were smoking, someone with young kids, and someone who wanted more kids. Liz was my second date, matched personally by "Molly", my Selective Search matchmaker. Liz, 52, had a cutoff age of 55, "but he JUST turned 59" quipped Molly, and Liz decided to take a chance. We went out for dinner on Saturday, November 3, then again on November 6, Election Day. Very quickly we started seeing a lot of each other. Since then we bought and decorated a Christmas tree together, have been to Mexico, Mackinaw Island, gone hiking in state parks, went kayaking twice, golf on numerous occasions, and even won two regional duplicate bridge tournaments together. The odds of quickly finding someone with those interests except via a high-end matching service is about zero percent, no matter how long one looks. Old Friends, New Friends Liz and Joanne's closest friends have met, and we have even traveled together, to Mexico. Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie have embraced Liz and vice versa. Kathy, was my "best man" at the wedding. Meet Liz Here are some pictures from our two most recent trips. Click on any image for sharper view. Sipping Tea on Front Porch of Grand Hotel - Mackinac Island Mackinac Island Michigan Carriage Ride Mackinac Island - Fun in Phone Booth Glen Arbor Michigan - Rhododendrons Sunset, Sipping Wine at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore Sunset Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore - Wild Lilacs Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore - Wild Lilacs Starved Rock State Park, Utica IL, Waterfall After Spring Rain Yes, we got wet taking that picture (Liz got soaked while I was fooling around trying to find the best angle), but it was fun. And, life's too short to not have fun with a compatible soulmate. I am extremely fortunate to have found Liz. And I could not possibly be happier. We are going on a delayed honeymoon at the end of July and early August in Prague (the capital and largest city of the Czech Republic), Munich Germany, and Rothenburg ob der Tauber (a lovely fairy-tale city on the Romantic Road in Germany). I will post some pictures while there. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greece Tax Filing Bureaucracy in Action Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:00 PM PDT My friend "Lefteris" reports .. Greece decided that all tax returns will be filed electronically.  Great! There is no more standing in line at the tax office to file your tax return. This is probably a problem for some older folks, but arguably it's a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, you still have to go to the tax office and wait in line with your ID in order to get a "password" to use the new electronic system. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Superman Joins a Union Posted: 16 Jun 2013 07:34 PM PDT Inquiring minds may be wondering what would happen if the "Man of Steel" were forced to join a union. The following video explains. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Germany Election Update: AfD Soars in Online Poll; Is Merkel Toast? Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:16 AM PDT Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD anti-euro party leader) has emailed me several times since Friday about polls conducted by the German tabloid Bild. Emphasis must be placed on the the word "tabloid" because intellectuals and academics do not tend to read the paper, nor even acknowledge its existence. Nonetheless, Bild is the number one readership paper in Germany, by far, with about 20 million readers daily. And a poll is a poll, not a slanted news article. The Bild is not a supporter of AfD in the least. If the poll is pro-Afd biased, it surely was not by the Bild.  With that backdrop here are a few emails from reader Bernd. Friday June 14 Hi Mish, I hope you are well! Today's "Bild Zeitung" online poll show support for AfD above 20%, way higher than in any official poll. If the chancellor could be elected directly, Angela Merkel would beat Peer Steinbrück by 63% to 37%. However, we do not elect the Chancellor directly. The party picture is what matters. Merkel's current coalition (CDU/CSU/FDP) would only get 26% of the vote, not enough for her to remain as Chancellor without support from AfD or SPD. Interestingly, the Bild did not even mention AfD in any coalition, a possible indication that Bild did not expect AfD to score anything above 5%. That said, I caution that "Bild online" does not give a representative result for the entire German electorate. It can, at best, give a trend or tendency. The results suggest that AfD might be more popular than let on by German media. Thank you, Mish, for your excellent observations on many topics not covered properly by other commentators. Bernd Saturday, June 15 Hi Mish, "Bild Online" has decided to repeat the poll again, this time on its home page. Today's poll follows an article by the "Bild-Federal Government Team", which makes a prediction for the coming elections. Their prediction is that only a CDU/CSU/SPD coalition can be formed – under Merkel's leadership. However, Steinbrück had made it clear that he won't be available under Merkel's leadership. The online poll at 8:45 shows 170,000 participants: CDU/CSU - 37% AfD - 20% SPD - 18% Die Grünen - 06% Die Linke - 06% FDP - 05% Others - 04% Piraten - 03% The Bild official prediction is that AfD won't make it into Parliament, due to the 5% barrier. Bernd Sunday, June 16 Hi Mish The poll is now closed and AfD came third with 15%. This is quite remarkable and would confirm my opinion, that at the moment, AfD has enough support to easily pass the 5% barrier. I told you way back, I see a potential for up to 12% for AfD. I see no need to change my mind at this point. Bernd Mish Comments Online polls can be manipulated but Bernd counters with "To vote several times you need to clear the cache and clear the cookies each time. I guess 99% of Bild online readers do not know how to do that." Still, the results are not scientific and a few very dedicated people could easily have hijacked the results. However, "could" and "did" are not the same thing. I see this as very similar to the rise of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) in Italy, where the mainstream media gave M5S no chance, yet M5S ended up as the largest political party in Italy at election time. If AfD gets as much as 10% of the vote and FDP does not clear the 5% threshold (both are likely), Angela Merkel will not survive the coalition building process or will be dramatically weakened in the process. Wahl-O-Meter Update  Wahl-O-Meter shows support for AfD at 7.9% with FPD dropping to 4.5%. With the threshold for parliament participation at 5% it is FPD, not AfD that is on the bubble. Political Party Explanation Please see Understanding German Politics for an explanation of the German political parties and what they stand for. Prediction I am sticking with my April 23 prediction Merkel Loses Chancellorship in September as Support for AfD Soars Addendum: Bernd writes "The poll was done by Bild Online and not the physical tabloid. Bild tabloid has a circulation of about 3 million copies per day with a readership reach of about 12 Million (Bild's own claimed numbers). Each paper is read by 4 people. Pure observation in any train or street car in Germany will confirm this assumption. Between Bild tabloid and Bild Online the readership reach is claimed to be 20 Million. It is difficult to assess how high the online readership truly is, because the numbers come from two different sources." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Seth's Blog : "I get it"

 

"I get it"

No need to read the whole book, I can just glance over the Cliffs Notes... I get it.

I don't need to hear your whole pitch, just show me the summary slide... got it.

No, I already heard about your vacation... remember, I saw the Instagram feed.

Him, why would I go out with him? I read his match.com profile.

You're probably smart enough to 'get it' merely by reading the 140 character summary of just about anything. But of course, that doesn't mean you understand it, or that it changed you. All it means is that you were quickly able to sort it into an appropriate category, to make a decision about where it belongs in your mental filing cabinet.

The best experiences and the biggest ideas don't fit into a category. They change it. They don't get filed away, they transform us.

It's entirely possible that you can process and file more information than anyone who has come before you. And quite likely that this filing is preventing you from growing and changing and confronting the fear that's holding you back.

You get it? No you don't. Not yet. Because all you've gotten is a tweet.

Read the book. The whole thing. Use the product. A few times. More than a few times.

Immersed. It can change you.

 

     

• Email to a friend •

More Recent Articles

• Angry is a habit
• Ping me when it's broken
• A handful of tools
• How do you want to die?
• Sure, but that's not a plan

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.

---

Click here to safely unsubscribe from "Seth Godin's Blog on marketing, tribes and respect." Click here to view mailing archives, here to change your preferences, or here to subscribe • Privacy

---

---

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

---

Dumb and Dumber Tax Hikes in Italy; Grand Coalition Splintering; Another Italy Convulsion Coming Up Posted: 15 Jun 2013 10:24 AM PDT One of the dumbest things a country can do in a recession is raise taxes. Yet, after pronouncing the end of austerity, Italy's "grand coalition" government, led by Enrico Letta, is going to hike the VAT. Why? It seems they need to hike the VAT to pay for a decrease in property taxes. Recall that Silvio Berlusconi was only willing to take part in Letta's grand coalition on condition property tax hikes were rolled back. Letta agreed to do that, but now Letta says Italy needs revenue hikes to make up for it. Grand Coalition Splintering Curiously, the International Business Times reports Enrico Letta's Grand Coalition Could End Italy's 'Lingering Civil War' . What nonsense. Letta's "grand coalition" is burnt toast already. Eurointelligence gets it right. Il Corriere della Sera and other Italian papers are leading with the news that finance minister Fabrizio Saccomanni and another cabinet ministers said yesterday that Italy cannot simultaneously afford to cut the IMU housing tax and not implement an envisaged rise in VAT, and would thus opt to raise VAT. In its coverage, La Repubblica writes that Saccomanni is now becoming a controversial within the coalition, as Silvio Berlusconi appears to appear chosen him as a target for his verbal attacks. The VAT increase is threatening to drive a gulf between the two largest parties, the PD and Berlusconi's PdL. Another Italy Convulsion Coming Up I agree with the following comments from Eurointelligence: "A rise in VAT is probably the worst thing that can happen right now ... Italy will miss the 2.9% deficit target, since the economy is likely to go into another convulsion once VAT is raised." Beppe Grillo 5-Star Movement Implodes As a side note the 5-Star movement of Beppe Grillo is imploding as well. Two more MPs have left the Movimento 5 Stelle parliamentary group, the Huffington Post Italia reports, bring the total number to five. Lawmakers Alessandro Furnari and Giuliana Labriola have quit M5S after internal fights, accusing Grillo of being a dictator and the party for failing to make substantive proposals. In an interview, Furnari said the M5S was dying due the Grillo' mix of inexperience, rawness and vulgar display of ideas without content. Grillo, meanwhile, has gone again on a verbal rampage. As reported by Il Corriere della Sera, he called the current Italian Parliament an "empty can of tuna." He said it was illegitimate because it was elected under an electoral law that he called is unconstitutional. Support for Grillo is now down to 14% from over 25% in the election (See Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy). Reader "AC", from Italy, predicted the rise of Beppe Grillo well in advance of any mainstream media coverage, also told me "Grillo has peaked" shortly after the national election. She called that one correctly as well. Infighting is everywhere in Italy now. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Damn Cool Pics

---

The Top 10 Superfoods for Exceptional Health [Infographic] Posted: 15 Jun 2013 12:56 PM PDT Superfoods are a great way to boost our health and vitality naturally. Not only are they good for us, most of them taste delicious too! While there are many great superfoods, we've listed our top ten below in an awesome infographic that details where they're sourced, which health-giving ingredients they are especially rich in and of course the potential benefits you may experience by adding them to your diet. Enjoy! Click on Image to Enlarge. Via: HealthPost.co.nz

You are subscribed to email updates from Damn Cool Pictures To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Celebrating Father's Day Weekend

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House           DAILY SNAPSHOT Saturday, June 15, 2013           Featured  Celebrating Father's Day Weekend President Obama discusses Father’s Day and notes that nothing substitutes for the love and support of the presence of a parent in a child’s life. Watch this week's Weekly Address.       Top Stories Obamacare in California: President Obama spent last Friday in California discussing how the Affordable Care Act is improving in the lives of people all across the country. “States like California are setting up new, online marketplaces where, beginning on October 1st of this year, you can comparison shop an array of private health insurance plans side-by-side, just like you were going online to compare cars or airline tickets.  And that means insurance companies will actually have to compete with each other for your business.  And that means new choices.” Equal Pay Act: Monday marked 50 years since President Kennedy signed the Equal Pay Act into law. The President spoke at an event to celebrate the anniversary, emphasizing the importance of the issue and acknowledging there’s still work to be done. “The day that the bill was signed into law, women earned 59 cents for every dollar a man earned on average.  Today, it’s about 77 cents.  So it was 59 and now it’s 77 cents.  It’s even less, by the way, if you’re an African American or a Latina.  So I guess that’s progress, but does anybody here think that’s good enough?” Jason Furman Nomination: President Obama announced his nomination to replace Alan Krueger as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Monday afternoon. Jason Furman, who currently serves in the Obama Administration as an Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and the Principal Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, is waiting for Congress to confirm his new role. President Obama praised both Krueger and Furman, citing their hard work as a reason for America’s economic upturn. Working with Peru: President Ollanta Humala of Peru visited the White House on Tuesday for a bilateral meeting with President Obama. The two leaders discussed ways our countries can continue to cooperate, including deepening education exchange programs, connecting small and medium-sized businesses to markets throughout the hemisphere, and combatting transnational drug networks. Immigration Reform: Prior to the Senate opening debate on Tuesday, President Obama spoke with leaders from across the country to reaffirm his belief that bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform needs to be passed now. The President shared stories from DREAMers and spoke of the positive impact that reform would have on America. “It will build on what we’ve done and continue to strengthen our borders. It will make sure that businesses and workers are all playing by the same set of rules, and it includes tough penalties for those who don’t. It’s fair for middle-class families, by making sure that those who are brought into the system pay their fair share in taxes and for services. And it’s fair for those who try to immigrate legally by stopping those who try to skip the line. It’s the right thing to do.” Pride Month: Leaders from the LGBT community gathered at the White House on Thursday to kick-off Pride month. President Obama spoke of the steps he and his Administration have taken to push LGBT rights forward, but admitted there is still work to be done. “In 34 states, you can be fired just because of who you are or who you love. That’s wrong. We’ve got to change it. There’s a bipartisan bill moving forward in the Senate that would ban discrimination against all LGBT Americans in the workplace, now and forever. We need to get that passed. I want to sign that bill. We need to get it done now."   Facebook    Twitter   |   More Ways to Engage Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : Angry is a habit

 

Angry is a habit

It's easy to imagine habits like a scotch after dinner, biting your nails or saying, "you know" after every sentence. An event or a time of day triggers us, and we go with the habit. It's easier than exploring new territory--it's merely a thoughtless response to an incoming trigger.

But emotions can become habits as well.

Distrustful is a habit.

Lonely is a habit.

Generous is a habit.

When that stranger doesn't do what you expect, is your response to assume that she's out to get you, trying to make an extra buck, looking for a shortcut? Or do you default to the habit of giving that new person a chance to explain herself?

Habits are great when they help us get what we want. Bad habits, on the other hand, are bad because the shortcut that satisfies us in the moment gets in the way of our long term goals.

Once you can see that your emotions are as much as a habit as cracking your knuckles, they're a lot easier to work with.

 

     

• Email to a friend •

More Recent Articles

• Ping me when it's broken
• A handful of tools
• How do you want to die?
• Sure, but that's not a plan
• Polishing perfect

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.

---

Click here to safely unsubscribe from "Seth Godin's Blog on marketing, tribes and respect." Click here to view mailing archives, here to change your preferences, or here to subscribe • Privacy

---

---

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498