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joi, 27 iunie 2013
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Early Look at Google's June 25 Algo Update
Early Look at Google's June 25 Algo Update |
| Early Look at Google's June 25 Algo Update Posted: 26 Jun 2013 06:51 AM PDT Posted by Dr-Pete If you follow our MozCast Google "weather" tracker, you may have noticed something unusual this morning â€" a record algorithm flux temperature of 113.3°F (the previous high was 102.2°, set on December 13, 2012). While the weather has been a bit stormy off and on since Penguin 2.0 and the announcement of 10-day rolling Panda updates, this one was still off the charts: I’m usually cautious about over-interpreting any single day's data â€" measuring algorithm change is a very difficult and noisy task. Given the unprecedented scope, though, and reports coming in of major ranking shake-ups in some verticals, I've decided to post an early analysis. Please understand that the Google algorithm is incredibly dynamic, and we’ll know more over the next few days. Temperatures by CategorySome industry verticals are naturally more volatile than others, but here’s a breakdown of the major categories we track in order by the largest percentage change over the 7-day average. The temperature for June 25th along with the 7-day average for each category is shown in parentheses:
Every vertical we track showed a solid temperature spike, but “Home & Garden†led the way with a massive 51° difference between the single-day temperature and its 7-day average. Some Sample QueriesThere are so many reasons that a query can change that looking at individual cases is often a one-way ticket to insanity, but that doesn’t seem to stop me from riding the train. Just to illustrate the point, the query “gay rights†showed a massive temperature of 250°F. Of course, if you know about the Supreme Court rulings announced the morning of June 26th, then this is hardly surprising. News results were being churned out fast and furious by very high-authority sites, and the SERP landscape for that topic was changing by the hour. Sometimes, though, we can spot an example that seems to tell a compelling story, especially when that example hasn’t historically been a high-temperature query. It’s not Capital-S Science, but it can help us look for clues in the broader data. Here are a couple of interesting examples… Example 1: “limousine serviceâ€On the morning of June 25th, a de-localized and de-personalized query for “limousine service†returned the following results:
One possible pattern is that there are no domains in the new Top 10 with either the phrase “limousine service†or “limo service†in them, which could indicate a crack-down on partial-match domains (PMDs). Interestingly, the term “limousine†disappeared altogether in the post-update domain list, although “limo†still fares well. This could also indicate some sort of tweak in how Google treats similar words ("limo" vs. "limousine"). Example 2: “auto auctionâ€Here’s another query that shows a similar PMD pattern, clocking in at a MozCast temperature of 239°. The morning of June 25th, “auto auction†showed the following Top 10:
In the first SERP, eight of the top ten had “auto auction(s)†in the URL; in the second, only two remained, and one of those was an official US government sub-domain (even that site lost a ranking spot). Top-View PMD InfluenceUltimately, these are anecdotes. The question is: do we see any pattern across the broader set? As luck would have it, we do track the influence of partial-match domains (PMDs) in the MozCast metrics. Our PMD Influence metric looks at the percentage of total Top 10 URLs where the root or sub-domain contains either “keywordstring†or “keyword-stringâ€, but is not an exact-match. Here’s a graph of PMD influence over the past 90 days: Please note that the vertical axis is scaled to more clearly show rises and falls over time. Across our data set, there’s been a trend toward steady decline of PMD influence in 2013, but today showed a fairly dramatic drop-off and a record low across our historical data (back to April 2012). This data comes from our smaller (1K) query set, but the pattern is also showing up in our 10K data set. For reference and further investigation, here are a few examples of PMDs that fell out of the Top 10, and the queries they fell out of (including some from the same queries):
The “Multi-Week†UpdateRecently, Matt Cutts warned of a multi-week algorithm update ending just after July 4th â€" could this be that update? The short answer is that we have no good way to tell, since Matt’s tweet didn’t tell us anything about the nature of the update. This single-day spike certainly doesn’t look like a gradual roll-out of anything, but it’s possible that we’ll see large-scale instability during this period. Some (Quite a Few) CaveatsThis is an imperfect exercise at best, and one day of data can be misleading. The situation is also constantly changing â€" Google claims Panda data is updating 10 days out of every 30 now, or 1/3 of the time, for example. At this early stage, I can only confirm that we’ve tracked this algorithm flux across multiple data centers and there is no evidence of any system errors or obvious data anomalies (we track many metrics, and some of them look relatively normal). Finally, it’s important to note that, just because a metric drops, it doesn’t mean Google pulled a lever to directly impact that metric. In other words, Google could release a quality adjustment that just happened to hit a lot of PMDs, even though PMDs weren’t specifically the target. I would welcome any evidence people have seen on their own sites, in webmaster chatter, in unofficial Google statements, etc. (even if it’s evidence against something I’m saying in this post). Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read! |
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What You Need to Know Before Conducting a Technical Website Audit
What You Need to Know Before Conducting a Technical Website Audit |  |
| What You Need to Know Before Conducting a Technical Website Audit Posted: 26 Jun 2013 01:57 AM PDT You have just spent the last week knee-deep in data and technical issues whilst crawling through a website. You have identified a large number of technical issues, and a major blocker that will drastically help improve search engine rankings. You have put together the document, talked the client through it, who thanked you for putting it together and said that it looks great, and can’t wait to see the results of the changes. A couple of days later, you get the call. Oh don’t you hate it when you get THE call! We can do the implementations no problem, but! Oh no, not the dreaded but. It’s going to take some time, the IT team have said they need to spec out the requirements, work out how to do half of it, and it’s probably going to take six months to implement the basic recommendations. Head, smack!, desk! How many times have you heard that story? But whose fault is it? Is it the IT team, who didn’t inform you of what is required for each change, or is it yours because you didn’t ask about the process to get website changes made, no matter how simple they may be? Below I have provided five key questions to ask before you start your technical audit.
Who are the key stakeholders?This for me is an essential first question. Who is responsible for the website? When I say who is responsible, I mean who is going to make all the technical changes that have been requested, who is going to be uploading content, title tags and meta descriptions that are provided if you are not doing them? From experience there could be multiple stakeholders within the business who deal with different aspects of the website that you are working on, as well as possible 3rd party agencies. You need to know everyone, from the project manger to the person implementing your title tags and making the technical changes to the infrastructure. I’d recommend using this spreadsheet to collect a complete list of all people who would be involved. TimescalesUnderstanding how long changes take and when they have been requested is great knowledge to possess. There are some key questions that I feel that you need to ask:
These are just a few questions that you should be asking, and will help manage your expectations of how long each of your recommendations would take to implement. InvolvementBy now I would hope that you have an understanding of who the key stakeholders are. Now you need to understand what is involved in making those changes happen. You should look at this from both agency and client side. Here are some initial questions that you should be asking:
This research phase is about understanding what you need to provide to the client to make the process as smooth as possible. Once you have made the recommendations, you don’t want to go back and forth editing documentation to ensure it is in the right format to be progressed and implemented. Internal ProcessesIt is easy to assume that when you make recommendations, it simply goes straight to the development team and they implement it. On most occasions this is true, but there are times (mainly in large businesses) when it needs to go through an internal sign-off process. The internal sign-off process could include a number of people, all of whom have to sign off different aspects. Does it affect marketing? Does it affect operations? Does it affect user journey? Get an early understanding of who is involved in the internal process and get to know them. These are the people that are going to get your recommendations signed off, and signed off quickly. Make sure that you note them down on the Key Stakeholders spreadsheet, and ensure that you spend time building those relationships. Once you clearly know (create a flow chart) what the internal process is, you can cross-reference them with estimated timescales, providing a much better idea of time required. Technology:Each website we work on is generally run on different technology. This maybe the same for you, unless your agency solely works with the same CMS platform, but even then you may have additional bespoke plugins to improve the website. With rich media types evolving, and the content that you are creating becoming more and more advanced, it is important to understand if any of your future recommendations will be compatible. Having the knowledge of what technology is behind the platform, and what can be added, is a great place to start. Here are some of the questions that I would start with:
You are more than likely going to come across a range of CMSs whilst working in an agency. To ensure that you are efficient, you should create a matrix to ensure that you don’t go over old ground. Here is a basic example of a CMS matrix that I have already created – feel free to add to it. When you come across a new CMS that you haven’t used before, I would suggest adding them to your matrix. LimitationsYou don’t want to be wasting your time, or the client’s time, trying to implement fixes that just can’t be fixed. Identifying the limitations of the platform should come at the same time as you are understanding what technology is behind the website. With most of the more common platforms, there are either add-in modules or enough good developers that allow you to fix most issues. However, there are also companies that are using old platforms that are not built to be as SEO friendly as most platforms are now. Speak to those involved with developing and enhancing the platform to see what is possible and what isn’t. This may sound like a standard item, but I have come across platforms that have either been unable to implement the basics (including title tags) or everything that you want to change comes at a cost. Knowing this allows you and the client to determine the best course of action, what resource is required, and more importantly, what the cost is. Some questions that I generally ask are:
Above are five areas that I feel you need investigate before starting an audit for any website, and these should form part of any kick-off meeting that you have with your clients. Do you ever come across any of these issues? What impact have they had on your project and the results? I’d be interested to hear your thoughts below in the comments or at on Twitter @danielbianchini. © SEOptimise What You Need to Know Before Conducting a Technical Website Audit |
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miercuri, 26 iunie 2013
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Plague of Gold Bears Now Say "Gold Unsafe at Any Price"; What's the Real Long-Term Driver for Gold?
- Draghi Announces ECB Exit From Easing Remains Far Off; Think the Fed Has an Exit Strategy?
- Italy Faces Huge Losses on Derivatives Restructured in Eurozone Crisis
| Plague of Gold Bears Now Say "Gold Unsafe at Any Price"; What's the Real Long-Term Driver for Gold? Posted: 26 Jun 2013 01:18 PM PDT Over the past week I received numerous emails regarding my June 13 post Mish Buys a Basket of Miners. People want to know if I am still in the trade. Others taunted they will be buying when I selling. Well good luck with that idea, because this is an investment not a trade. One reader proposed "My prediction is when the Fed finally stops printing, gold will drop to $750 and when they start raising rates gold will drop to $500. What do you say about that?" I answered "Your prediction seems as silly as those who knew gold would be at 2400 or even 3000 by now. No one can accurately predict such things." I bought with the intention of holding for a lengthy period, stating "I believe precious metal miners represent true value, but I cannot state when the market will come to the same conclusion." What's changed? The answer is "nothing". So am I selling? Of course not, and it seems silly to even ask. Anti-gold sentiment is amazing, but sentiment alone is not a good timing factor. It can always get worse. A Plague of Gold Bears and The 'Tapering' Myth Acting Man touched on the sentiment theme in A Plague of Gold Bears and The 'Tapering' Myth. Readers may recall that in 2010 and 2011, after largely ignoring the fact that gold had been going up for more than a decade, virtually all the major mainstream banks and brokers suddenly turned bullish on gold. It was a huge warning sign as we now know with the benefit of hindsight (and as a few people suspected at the time). At the time target prices for gold were all of a sudden raised by all these worthies. Not even one of them sounded an alarm. Grave Dancing I invite you to read the rest of the article because it's worth a closer look. Curiously, Just as Acting Man discussed above, talking heads say the stock market is up today because the lower GDP print means the Fed will not taper bond purchases, yet tapering is bad for gold. For discussion of ECB and Fed tapering as well as the unexpected slowdown in US GDP, please see Draghi Announces ECB Exit From Easing Remains Far Off; Think the Fed Has an Exit Strategy? What's the Real Long-Term Driver for Gold? Most analysts are totally clueless about gold and gold markets. They cite jewelry, mining production, central bank sales, and all sorts of other irrelevant factors in their analysis. If you really want to understand what gold is all about, I suggest you read an interview on Gold Switzerland with Robert Blumen: "What's really key for the price formation of gold?" Blumen discusses assets vs. consumption, mine supply, jewelry, marginal demand, the alleged (and nonexistent "gold deficit"), and sentiment. Blumen does not offer much commentary on the GATA price manipulation thesis other than say it's "plausible". I suggest most of what GATA says is at best strongly over-hyped, including the GATA alleged "gold deficit" (a point on which Blumen agrees). Rather than excerpt the interview, I simply suggest you read the article in entirety, save this one humorous anecdote at the end: "People who say [gold is in a bubble]did not identify the equity bubble, did not believe that we had a housing bubble, nor have they identified the current genuine bubble, which in the bond market. But now these same people are so good at spotting bubbles that they can tell you that gold is in one. Most of them did not identify gold as something which was worth buying at the bottom, have never owned a single ounce of gold, have missed the entire move up over the last dozen years, and now that they're completely out of the market, they smugly tell us for our own good that gold is in a bubble and we should sell." Unsafe At Any Price Indeed, sentiment has soured so much that MercBloc president Dan Dicker says Gold Is Unsafe at Any Price I leave it to the reader to decide if that headline is even more ridiculous than UBS Says QE's End May Render Gold 'Obsolete' Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Draghi Announces ECB Exit From Easing Remains Far Off; Think the Fed Has an Exit Strategy? Posted: 26 Jun 2013 10:10 AM PDT The Financial Times reports ECB exit from easing remains far off, Draghi says. Speaking to committees in the French lower house of parliament, Mr Draghi said there were still downside risks to growth in the eurozone economy and the ECB was ready to take fresh action if needed.Taper Talk on "Strength" of US Economy Bernanke says the US economy is solid enough that the Fed can begin tapering its balance sheet purchases later this year. Given the stock and bond market bubbles the Fed has created, the Fed of course should taper (not that it should ever have expanded its balance sheet in the first place). 4th Quarter GDP barely crossed the zero line with 0.4% growth. That growth was via questionable GDP deflators. Today, 1st Quarter GDP came it at 1.8% annualized, a dramatic downward revision from an estimate of 2.4% released last month. In turn, 2.4% was a downward revision from the first estimate of 2.5%. GDP Trends  click on chart for sharper image The above chart is courtesy of Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives who reports GDP Q1 Third Estimate at 1.8%: A Surprising Downward Revision Note the linear regression trend of lower GDP over time. Taper vs. Exit There is absolutely no chance the Fed has any real "exit" strategy other than to hold its entire bloated balance sheet to maturity. If the Fed "tapers" its purchases, it will not be because the economy is picking up steam, but rather because the Fed is clueless about the prospects for the economy, or perhaps out of very belated concern over the stock and bond market bubbles that it has created (nothing the Fed would ever admit of course). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Italy Faces Huge Losses on Derivatives Restructured in Eurozone Crisis Posted: 26 Jun 2013 12:42 AM PDT The Financial Times notes that Italy faces billions in losses on Derivatives Restructured in Eurozone Crisis. Italy risks potential losses of billions of euros on derivatives contracts it restructured at the height of the eurozone crisis, according to a confidential report by the Rome Treasury that sheds more light on the financial tactics that enabled the debt-laden country to enter the euro in 1999.The facts seem difficult to piece together, but the amounts are significant. Some of the derivatives date back to 1994-1996 when Italy dressed up its finances to meet Maastricht treaty criteria, including a budget deficit less than 3 per cent. "Italy had a budget deficit of 7.7 per cent in 1995" but the deficit magically shrunk to 2.7% in 1998, the approval year for Italy joining the eurozone. The odds of that being legitimate are approximately zero percent. ECB president Mario Draghi was head of the Italian central bank at the time much of this took place, so it's no wonder details are scant. Recall that Bloomberg lost a freedom of information lawsuit against the ECB regarding derivatives used to hide Greek debt on the basis "disclosure of the files would have undermined the protection of the public interest so far as concerns the economic policy of the European Union and Greece". I would be far more interested to see the complete Italy files, but clearly that's not going to happen either. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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