marți, 9 iulie 2013

2013 Search Engine Ranking Factors

2013 Search Engine Ranking Factors


2013 Search Engine Ranking Factors

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 07:19 PM PDT

Posted by Matt Peters

Yesterday at MozCon, I presented the results from Moz's Ranking Factors 2013 study. In this post I will highlight the key takeaways, and we will follow it up with a full report and data set sometime later this summer.

Overview

Every two years, Moz runs a Ranking Factors study to determine which attributes of pages and sites have the strongest association with ranking highly in Google. The study consists of two parts: a survey of professional SEOs and a large correlation study.

We'll dive into the data in a minute, but some of the key findings include:

  1. Page Authority correlates higher than any other metric we measured.
  2. Social signals, especially Google +1s and Facebook shares are highly correlated.
  3. Despite Penguin, anchor text correlations remain as strong as ever.
  4. New correlations were measured for schema.org and structured data usage.
  5. More data was collected on external links, keywords, and exact match domains.

Survey

Cyrus Shepard and Matt Brown organized this year's survey of 120 SEOs. In a few weeks, we'll release the full survey data. For now, thank you to everyone who participated! This wouldn't have been possible without your help, and we appreciate the time and effort you put in to answering the questions.

The survey asked respondents to rate many different factors on a scale of 1-10 according to how important they thought they were in Google's ranking algorithm. We present the average score across all responses. The highest-rated factors in our survey had average scores of 7-8 with less-important factors generally ranging from 4-6.

Correlations

To compute the correlations, we followed the same process as in 2011. We started with a large set of keywords from Google AdWords (14,000+ this year) that spanned a wide range of search volumes across all topic categories. Then, we collected the top 50 organic search results from Google-US in a depersonalized way. All SERPs were collected in early June, after the Panda 2.0 update.

For each search result, we extracted all the factors we wanted to analyze and finally computed the mean Spearman correlation across the entire data set. Except for some of the details that I will discuss below, this is the same general process that both Searchmetrics and Netmark recently used in their excellent studies. Jerry Feng and Mike O'Leary on the Data Science team at Moz worked hard to extract many of these features (thank you!):

When interpreting the correlation results, it is important to remember that correlation does not prove causation.

Rand has a nice blog post explaining the importance of this type of analysis and how to interpret these studies. As we review the results below, I will call out the places with a high correlation that may not indicate causation.

Enough of the boring methodology, I want the data!

Here's the first set, Mozscape link correlations:

Correlations: Page level

Correlations: Domain level

Page Authority is a machine learning model inside our Mozscape index that predicts ranking ability from links and it is the highest correlated factor in our study. As in 2011, metrics that capture the diversity of link sources (C-blocks, IPs, domains) also have high correlations. At the domain/sub-domain level, sub-domain correlations are larger then domain correlations.

In the survey, SEOs also thought links were very important:

Survey: Links

Anchor text

Over the past two years, we've seen Google crack down on over-optimized anchor text. Despite this, anchor text correlations for both partial and exact match were also quite large in our data set:

Interestingly, the surveyed SEOs thought that an organic anchor text distribution (a good mix of branded and non-branded) is more important then the number of links:

The anchor text correlations are one of the most significant differences between our results and the Searchmetrics study. We aren't sure exactly why this is the case, but suspect it is because we included navigational queries while Searchmetrics removed them from its data. Many navigational queries are branded, and will organically have a lot of anchor text matching branded search terms, so this may account for the difference.

On-page

Are keywords still important on-page?

We measured the relationship between the keyword and the document both with the TF-IDF score and the language model score and found that the title tag, the body of the HTML, the meta description and the H1 tags all had relatively high correlation:

Correlations: On-page

See my blog post on relevance vs. ranking for a deep dive into these numbers (but note that this earlier post uses a older version of the data, so the correlation numbers are slightly different).

SEOs also agreed that the keyword in the title and on the page were important factors:

Survey: On-page

We also computed some additional on-page correlations to check whether structured markup (schema.org or Google+ author/publisher) had any relationship to rankings. All of these correlations are close to zero, so we conclude that they are not used as ranking signals (yet!).

Exact/partial match domain

The ranking ability of exact and partial match domains (EMD/PMD) has been heavily debated by SEOs recently, and it appears Google is still adjusting their ranking ability (e.g. this recent post by Dr. Pete). In our data collected in early June (before the June 25 update), we found EMD correlations to be relatively high at 0.17 (0.20 if the EMD is also a dot-com), just about on par with the value from our 2011 study:

This was surprising, given the MozCast data that shows EMD percentage is decreasing, so we decided to dig in. Indeed, we do see that the EMD percent has decreased over the last year or so (blue line):

However, we see a see-saw pattern in the EMD correlations (red line) where they decreased last fall, then rose back again in the last few months. We attribute the decrease last fall to Google's EMD update (as announced by Matt Cutts). The increase in correlations between March and June says that the EMDs that are still present are ranking higher overall in the SERPs, even though they are less prevalent. Could this be Google removing lower quality EMDs?

Netmark recently calculated a correlation of 0.43 for EMD, and it was the highest overall correlation in their data set. This is a major difference from our value of 0.17. However, they used the rank-biserial correlation instead of the Spearman correlation for EMD, arguing that it is more appropriate to use for binary values (if they use the Spearman correlation they get 0.15 for the EMD correlation). They are right, the rank-biserial correlation is preferred over Spearman in this case. However, since the rank-biserial is just the Pearson correlation between the variables, we feel it's a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison to present both Spearman and rank-biserial side by side. Instead, we use Spearman for all factors.

Social

As in 2011, social signals were some of our highest correlated factors, with Google+ edging out Facebook and Twitter:

SEOs, on the other hand, do not think that social signals are very important in the overall algorithm:

This is one of those places where the correlation may be explainable by other factors such as links, and there may not be direct causation.

Back in 2011, after we released our initial social results, I showed how Facebook correlations could be explained mostly by links. We expect Google to crawl their own Google+ content, and links on Google+ are followed so they pass link juice. Google also crawls and indexes the public pages on Facebook and Twitter.

Takeaways and the future of search

According to our survey respondents, here is how Google's overall algorithm breaks down:

We see:

  1. Links are still believed to be the most important part of the algorithm (approximately 40%).
  2. Keyword usage on the page is still fundamental, and other than links is thought to be the most important type of factor.
  3. SEOs do not think social factors are important in the 2013 algorithm (only 7%), in contrast to the high correlations.
Looking into the future, SEOs see a shift away from traditional ranking factors (anchor text, exact match domains, etc.) to deeper analysis of a site's perceived value to users, authorship, structured data, and social signals:

Finally, my MozCon slides contain some more details and data:


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#MozCon Speaker Interview: Carrie Gouldin

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 05:11 AM PDT

Posted by Lindsay

As Web Community Manager @ThinkGeek, Carrie Gouldin built the company’s social media presence from the ground up and now engages hundreds of thousands of followers through multiple social platforms.

We’re excited that she is bringing her valuable insights about social media to MozCon! In her talk, “Using Metrics to Build Social Media Engagement,” she’ll share practical advice about how to track links, read metrics, and keep your followers hungry for more.

Recently, we got the chance to talk to her about her dynamic job, social metrics, and how a well-coordinated social media response helped ThinkGeek turn around an internet meltdown.

Tell us about the presentation you have planned for MozCon.

I'm going to talk about how the right content at the right time and the right metrics tracked with the right tools drives ThinkGeek's social program. I'll show examples of the kind of stuff that gets us thousands of retweets and a 25-50% Talking About This rate on Facebook, some of our behind-the-scenes data on traffic and revenue, and tips and tests you can try right away.

You’re currently the web community manager at ThinkGeek. Could you tell us a bit about how you got into that role?

I started at ThinkGeek almost five years ago. At that time, ThinkGeek had a very strong brand and passionate fans, but we weren't really available to our customers out there on social networks. I came in at the right time â€" before Oprah joined Twitter, even â€" and was able to start building a community organically and trying new things without the burden of so-called "best practices." It also wasn't my only role (and still isn't; I also head up our email program), so I was able to justify my existence beyond Faceyspaces and Twitlogs to those who were on the fence about the value of social networks for internet retailers.

What do you think are the top three qualities of an effective web community manager?

First and foremost, 100% dedication to the brand, values, and public persona of the company they represent. If they're going to manufacture the Kool-Aid, they have to drink it first. This is why I feel social media should always be kept in-house.

Second, the ability to communicate clearly, interestingly, and like a real human being â€" which is to say with humor, compassion, and enthusiasm. That includes strong (and concise!) writing skills, some Photoshop mojo, experience with HTML and web publishing, and unflagging attention to detail.

And lastly, a thick skin and knowing when to take a break. Being at the beck and call of the internet is not easy.

Which social metric do you think is widely undervalued?

Engagement is undervalued, and the metric depends on the network. What good is a jillion followers if none of them clicks your links or retweets or shares your content?

On the other hand, revenue and traffic are valued but traditionally achieved through paid placements like boosted Facebook posts or sponsored tweets, while we treat our social streams like network television with great content surrounding our commercials, which does work for us. We haven't seen boosted posts pay off for us on Facebook, but remarketing ads (not under the purview of our "community" team) can be successful.

Give us an example of one important test that any business on Facebook should do in the process of building social media engagement.

On Facebook, try the same content two ways at the same time of day, one day apart. It's hard to do A/B tests given the nature of the tools we have--that is, in most cases, everyone sees the same thing at the same time--so you have to be creative.

I'd suggest an image + text post on Facebook on the same subject versus the same text without an image. Which does better on shares? Clicks? Comments? Reach? Revenue? Facebook targets different kind of content to different users based on their past engagement history, so you might see very different results.

A couple months ago, ThinkGeek was caught in the crossfire between FOX and sellers on Etsy, but ThinkGeek came out of it looking great. Can you share a bit about how social media helped manage ThinkGeek’s reputation in this incident, and any insights you gained from the experience?

For those playing along at home, the issue was over a licensed knit hat from Joss Whedon's short-lived space western Firefly, owned by FOX. The show ranks up there with Doctor Who, Star Wars, and Star Trek in terms of the geek lexicon, and the hat in question became a symbol of both rebelling against the man (because of the character who wore it) and helping others out (with charitable donations from the purchase of hand-made knit hat replicas on sites like Etsy).

So when an unnamed source (a.k.a. the man) went after many unlicensed Etsy sellers (the rebels with hearts of gold) with cease and desist orders, the internet exploded.

Our licensed version of the hat (made by another company that is not us) is visible out there in the geekiverse so we got a lot of questions and accusations about our role in the matter via email, Twitter, Facebook, Google+, our blog, our Jayne hat product page comments, the phone â€" every possible method of contact.

First, there was a collective "WHAT JUST HAPPENED?" at ThinkGeek HQ, and we told customers we didn't know what was going on (which was true) but we'd find out. After some triage behind the scenes, we learned it was FOX â€" generally unloved by fans because FOX is the reason the show was cancelled in the first place â€" and that in fact FOX had only issued one C&D, so presumably Etsy decided to shut down the other stores. As quickly as we could, we published a blog post explaining our side of things.

Neither we nor the licensors who make the hat had any role in it, but then the story changed to "Well, if you didn't sell it, this wouldn't happen." That may or may not be true. FOX would have likely tried to protect their intellectual property regardless, but there we were still selling the hat. So, after much consternation about how to turn our problem into a solution befitting the charitable roots of the hat, we published another post the following day announcing our donation of the proceeds to Can't Stop the Serenity, a Browncoat charity that supports Equality Now:

Then Nathan Fillion, who starred in Firefly, very kindly tweeted about the steps we'd taken:

Which was very much appreciated by us (because we're fans so OMG <3 NATHAN)... but crashed our blog, and spawned the hashtag #Fillioned. All in all, a good ending to two long days.

What did we do that made this work out? We were honest, acted quickly, and responded in the manner that honored and respected the spirit of the hat and the fandom surrounding it. Pretty simple, but in practice it takes serious coordination to pull a response like that together.

What is your geekiest hobby?

MY JOB. Seriously. Curating a collection of 100+ fan-made cosplay outfits for a stuffed monkey who meets geek celebrities like Adam Savage, Wil Wheaton, and the voice of GLaDOS should count for something.

What is a quote that has stuck with you, and why?

"Brevity is the soul of wit" from Shakespeare's Hamlet. Comes in handy for Twitter-zen.

If you had to be trapped in a TV show for a month, which would you choose?

I should say Game of Thrones to stay on message but that's just about the very last universe I'd want to find myself trapped in. My top pick would be Downton Abbey so I could I hang with the Dowager Countess.


It was great to speak with you, Carrie! Get geeky updates by following @ThinkGeek on Twitter, and learn test-driven social media tips by checking out Carrie’s presentation at MozCon!


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Using Technology to Make Government Smarter

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Watch Live 

The Let's Move! Kids' State Dinner starts at 11:25 a.m. ET. More than 50 kid chefs from all over the country will be here at the White House to celebrate healthy eating. Watch on LetsMove.gov/Kids-State-Dinner.

 
 
  Featured 

Using Technology to Make Government Smarter

Yesterday, the President laid out his vision for a better, smarter, faster government over the course of his second term. His plan means delivering essential services faster, increasing efficiency to save taxpayers money, and opening up government data that can spur innovation and inspire entrepreneurs.

See more from yesterday, and learn how a new management agenda is improving government.

A Smarter, More Innovative Government for the American People

 
 
  Top Stories

Watch the 2013 Kids' State Dinner

Earlier this summer, 1,300 children submitted their favorite healthy recipes to Epicurious to compete in the second annual Healthy Lunchtime Challenge. Today, the fifty-four winners and their partent/guardian (one pair from each of the 50 states, plus three of the territories, and D.C.) are visiting the White House to join First Lady Michelle Obama for the Kids' State Dinner.

READ MORE

The Employment Situation in June

While more work remains to be done, Friday's employment report provides further confirmation that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

READ MORE

The Promise of America: Welcoming Our Newest Citizens

Last week more than 7,800 candidates became citizens at more than 100 ceremonies across the country and around the world. Obama Administration officials participated in ceremonies which were part of the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services’ annual celebration of Independence Day.

READ MORE

 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

9:30 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:30 AM: The President meets with members of the Congressional Black Caucus

12:45 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WATCH LIVE

1:00 PM: The Vice President delivers remarks at memorial service for firefighters who died fighting the Yarnell Hill Fire WATCH LIVE

2:35 PM: The President meets with Secretary of the Treasury Lew

4:30 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Defense Hagel

 

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Seth's Blog : Nature and nurture (professional edition)

 

Nature and nurture (professional edition)

The boss, conference organizer, co-worker, interviewer, parent or client who wants your best work, your art and your genuine enthusiasm:

...can demand that you bring your best possible work the first time, can point out that they are paying you well, that they're busy, that they're powerful, and that they accept nothing short of high performance or you're out.

...or they can nurture you, encourage you, set a high bar and then support you on your way. They can teach you, cajole you and introduce you to others that will do the same.

The first strategy is the factory mindset, of interchangeable parts and interchangeable people. It is the strategy of ensuring six sigma perfection, on demand, and the strategy of someone in power, who can demand what he wants, when he wants it.

You don't make art this way, or emotional connections, or things that haven't been made before. You may get the job done, but it's not clear if you'll make a difference.

 
    

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luni, 8 iulie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


German Exports Decline Significantly and "Unexpectedly"

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 12:23 PM PDT

Given that all of Europe is in a major recession and it is nearly impossible for the German export machine to keep cranking in such circumstances, the only real surprise is how long it took for German exports to the rest of the eurozone to plunge.

Nonetheless most economists were surprised by the news Germany's Recovery in Question as Exports Decline Significantly.
German exports declined in May at their fastest pace since 2009 because of the slowdown in key European and China markets, adding to worries that the country's recovery was losing momentum.

The Federal Statistical Office said that exports declined by 2.4% in calendar-adjusted terms from the previous month to €90.4bn ($116bn/£78bn). Economists expected a 0.1% increase in exports.

Germany's trade surplus declined to €13.1bn from €18bn in Apil. The surplus in the current account, a measure of all trade including services, was €11.2bn in June, down from €16.7bn.

On a year-on-year basis, exports declined by 4.8%, primarily due to a 9.6% decline in demand from other countries in the euro area. Imports declined by 2.6% from the year-ago month.

Exports to the eurozone, where Germany sends 40% of its shipments, declined by 9.6% from the year-ago month, and exports to the European Union (EU) fell by 7.1%. Export demand from countries outside the EU declined by 1.6%, with the slowdown in China have an impact on trade. With the slowdown in the EU, many German manufacturers had looked at China, the second largest economy, as an alternative.

The economy returned to modest growth of 0.1% in the first quarter and is expected to pick up further. The eurozone contracted in the first quarter of 2013, a sixth consecutive quarterly fall.
Summary

  • German exports overall down 4.8% from a year ago
  • German exports to eurozone down 9.6% from a year ago
  • German exports to EU down 7.1% from a year ago
  • German exports outside the EU down 1.6% from a year ago

Recovery? What Recovery?

For some inexplicable reason economists expect the German economy to "pick up further".

I expect Germany to sink back into recession (not that it really ever left recession).

0.1% growth is a rounding error, not "growth".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Civil War Brewing in Egypt? Muslim Brotherhood Calls for Uprising After 51 Supporters of Morsi were Killed by Security Forces

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 10:57 AM PDT

The Financial Times reports Muslim Brotherhood calls for uprising after Cairo violence
The political crisis in Egypt deepened on Monday when the Muslim Brotherhood called for an uprising against those who want to "steal the revolution" after at least 51 people were killed and 435 injured at a Cairo rally in support of the nation's ousted president, Mohamed Morsi.

Adli Mansour, the interim president, ordered the creation of a judicial committee to investigate the violence while an administration spokesman, told Reuters the violence "will not stop steps to form a government or a road map".

The interim administration earlier expressed "deep regret" for the victims, saying in a statement that the incident was caused by an attempt to storm a Republican Guard barracks. It urged protesters not to approach military facilities or other "vital installations".

The Freedom and Justice party, the Brotherhood's political wing, said on its Facebook page that Egyptians should "rise up against those who want to steal their revolution with tanks and armoured vehicles, even over the dead bodies of the people".

Monday's clashes immediately sparked fresh uncertainty over the make-up of any new government when the hardline Islamist Nour party – which backed the ousting of Mr Morsi – pulled out of negotiation as a response to what a spokesman called "the massacre of the Republican Guard".
Civil War Brewing?

The Guardian reports Muslim Brotherhood decries killing of Morsi supporters in Cairo 'massacre'
The army said an "armed terrorist group" attempted to break into the Republican Guard headquarters and attacked security forces. One officer died and 40 soldiers were injured, seven of whom were in a critical condition, according to al-Ahram, Egypt's leading pro-government newspaper. The army said it had arrested at least 200 people who had large quantities of firearms, ammunition and Molotov cocktails.

The conservative Salafi al-Nour party withdrew from talks about a transitional government after the latest violence. "We wanted to avoid bloodshed, but now blood has been spilled. So now we want to announce that we will end all negotiations with the new authorities," it said.

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist who left the Brotherhood last year, called on Mansour to step down and told al-Jazeera that the incident was "a horrible crime against humanity and all Egyptians".

The Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party (FJP) said it was calling "on the great Egyptian people to rise up against those who want to steal their revolution with tanks and armoured vehicles, even over the dead bodies of the people". But a spokesman clarified later that the appeal was for a "peaceful uprising".

Hamdeen Sabahi, a former presidential candidate and leftist opposition leader, said: "It is very bad news. Very painful. The troops have the duty to guard this building and deal with any attackers. But the result puts us in a bad situation." The only beneficiaries were the Muslim Brotherhood and others who sought to polarise the situation and drive Egypt into civil war, he said.
Let's hope that cooler head prevail, but the radical Muslim Brotherhood may not give up so easily having been forced out of power by the military.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Trends in Full and Part-Time Employment; Obamacare Job Double Counting and Other Economic Distortions

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 01:36 AM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace provided another excellent series of charts on the employment situation. These charts compare June employment in 2013 to June in prior years.

click on any chart for sharper image

June Employment



June Full-Time Employment



June Part-Time Employment



Wallace writes "Hello Mish. The full-time job loss since June of 2007 now tops five million. The overall job loss is still 2 million, in spite of the fact the US now has a working-age population that is 14 million higher than in June 2007."

Snapshot 2007 vs. 2013

YearTotal EmployedFull-TimePart-Time
2007146,958,000 123,554,000 23,404,000
2013144,841,000 118,470,00026,371,000
Difference-2,117,000-5,084,000+2,967,000


Snapshot vs. Prior Year

YearEmployment vs. Prior YearFull-Time vs. Prior YearPart-Time vs. Prior Year
20071,742,000 1,205,000 537,000
2009(5,823)-8,715,0002,892,000
2010-944,000355,000 -1,299,000
2011247,000 -132,000379,000
20123,073,000 3,118,000 -45,000
20131,639,000 1,316,000 323,000


By this comparison only 2012 looks anything close to a normal recovery year. Some of the jump in 2012 is due to revisions from 2010 and 2011 that were not as bad as originally reported.

In the last year, the economy gained 1.316 million full-time jobs, about 110,000 a month. Overall jobs rose by 1.639 million, about 137,000 a month, a number just above what it should take to hold the unemployment rate flat.

Month-Over-Month

Month-over-month distortions abound. As noted on Friday, Part-Time Jobs Increased by 486,000 with 326,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost.

Seasonally Adjusted Part-Time Employment

Wallace charts show non-adjusted numbers vs. the same month in prior years, and that is a valid statistical comparison.

Let's also look at seasonally adjusted numbers vs. the prior month, also a valid comparison.



The trend towards part-time employment since 2010 is volatile, yet unmistakable.

Part-Time Employment vs. Prior Month

Year Part-TimeEmployment
2012-09-0127692
2012-10-0127869
2012-11-0127517
2012-12-0127502
2013-01-0127467
2013-02-0127569
2013-03-0127442
2013-04-0127549
2013-05-0127699
2013-06-0128059


Obamacare Job Double Counting

The above part-time numbers do not show the trend one might expect. Moreover, establishment survey numbers show a fair amount of hiring (+195,000 in the latest report), with recent months revised higher.

Here's the problem: The establishment survey double counts jobs when someone takes an extra part-time job, whereas someone working two part-time jobs is counted as employed just once in the household survey.

For example: Thanks to Obamacare, someone who used to work 35 hours a week for Olive Garden now works 22 hours for Olive Garden and 12 for Applebees. And Someone who worked 35 hours for Applebees now works 22 for Applebees and 12 for Olive Garden. The establishment survey sees two additional jobs created when precisely zero jobs were created.

Since this is happening en masse, I expect downward revisions in the future over Obamacare Double Counting.

The Obamcare effect is real. The distortions are complicated, numerous, and not widely understood.

Obamacare Economic Distortion Synopsis


For more on Obamacare Economic Distortions, please peruse the above links to your heart's content.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com