duminică, 4 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Bernanke Wants 2% Inflation in a Deflationary World; Who Pays the Price?

Posted: 04 Aug 2013 05:55 PM PDT

PEW Social Trends research shows a Record 21.6 Million Young Adults Live in Their Parents' Home

Here are some clips from the fascinating PEW study.



In 2012, 36% of the nation's young adults ages 18 to 31 the so-called Millennial generation—were living in their parents' home, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. This is the highest share in at least four decades and represents a slow but steady increase over the 32% of their same-aged counterparts who were living at home prior to the Great Recession in 2007 and the 34% doing so when it officially ended in 2009.

A record total of 21.6 million Millennials lived in their parents' home in 2012, up from 18.5 million of their same aged counterparts in 2007. Of these, at least a third and perhaps as many as half are college students.

The steady rise in the share of young adults who live in their parents' home appears to be driven by a combination of economic, educational and cultural factors. Among them:

  • Declining employment: In 2012, 63% of 18- to 31-year-olds had jobs, down from the 70% of their same-aged counterparts who had jobs in 2007. In 2012, unemployed Millennials were much more likely than employed Millennials to be living with their parents (45% versus 29%).
  • Rising college enrollment: In March 2012, 39% of 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college, up from 35% in March 2007. Among 18 to 24 year olds, those enrolled in college were much more likely than those not in college to be living at home – 66% versus 50%.
  • Declining marriage: In 2012 just 25% of Millennials were married, down from the 30% of 18- to 31-year-olds who were married in 2007.

Percent of Married Millennial Declines



Long-Term Changes in Young Adult Living Arrangements



Household Formation



Married Residing in Own Household Plummets



Since 1968, age at first marriage has increased by nearly six years for both men and women. Consequently, the share of young adults who are married and residing in their own household has plummeted since 1968. In 2012, only 23% of Millennials were married and residing on their own as household head or spouse, a precipitous decline compared with 1968 when 56% of 18- to 31-year-olds were married and on their own.

End PEW

Fed Policies Exacerbate Trend

Bernanke wants 2% inflation in a deflationary world. Wages have not kept up with inflation as Fed policies exacerbate the trends.

The result is apparent. Everyone pays the price, but especially Young adults who cannot afford to get married, and they certainly cannot afford a house.

The Fed wants home prices up to help out the banks, but what about the new household formation? And what about student loans and the ability to pay those loans back?

And think about how cheap money allows corporations to borrow money for next to nothing to buy technology to replace humans with hardware and software robots.

Trends noted by PEW and predicted in this corner at least six years ago are structural long-lasting trends.

Those expecting a huge pickup in inflation, a spike in US GDP, or a big boom in housing based on misguided perceptions of "pent-up housing demand", fail to understand how Fed boom-bust and bank-bailout policies preclude such outcomes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Magazine Ad Revenues Plunge; Google Collects Half of Mobile Internet Ads; Cannibalization of Ad Market

Posted: 04 Aug 2013 04:15 PM PDT

Is the advertising pie growing, shrinking, or simply being redistributed? Let's start with a look at PEW Center research that shows News magazines hit by big drop in ad pages.
In a difficult advertising environment for the magazine industry overall, newly-released numbers from the Association of Magazine Media (MPA) show the nation's news magazines being hit particularly hard.



Total consumer magazine ad pages dropped 4.9% compared with the first half of 2012, according to MPA data for the first six months of 2013, released July 9. But the drop in ad pages for five major news magazines—Time, The Economist, The Atlantic, The Week and The New Yorker—was far steeper, a combined 18% in the first half of 2013 compared with the same period a year earlier. In one indicator of the difficulties facing news magazines, Newsweek—which saw ad pages decline by 60% from 2002 to 2012—discontinued its print edition at the end of 2012.

While these numbers highlight a difficult print advertising climate, they don't tell the whole story. MPA President Mary Berner says magazines are increasingly generating digital revenue. Initial industry monitoring of digital advertising revenue for some magazine iPad versions found that sales increased about 25% in the first half of 2013. Berner called those gains "encouraging" and added that later this year, about 100 magazines will begin reporting some digital revenue results. In addition, some news magazines, most notably The Economist and The Atlantic, have begun diversifying revenue streams with such initiatives as events, conferences and creation of niche content.

Looking over the past decade, from 2003 through 2012, the overall ad pages for news magazines (excluding Newsweek) dropped by 36%, from 7,848 to 5,008. But within that time frame were several shifts in trajectory. A major drop-off in ad pages occurred from 2008 to 2009 (17%.) Ad pages stabilized from 2009 to 2011, growing at a modest 1%. But then another downturn occurred as ad pages in 2012 dropped 13% from the previous year, followed by the 18% decline in the first half of 2013.
Google Take Home Half of Mobile Internet Ads

eMarketer reports Google Takes Home Half of Worldwide Mobile Internet Ad Revenues.
Google earned more than half of the $8.8 billion advertisers worldwide spent on mobile internet ads last year, helping propel the company to take in nearly one-third of all digital ad dollars spent globally, according to eMarketer's first-ever figures on worldwide digital and mobile advertising revenues at major internet companies.

Ad Revenues in Dollars and Percent of Market



After making nearly half a billion dollars worldwide on mobile ads last year, Facebook—which had no mobile revenue in 2011—is expected to increase mobile revenues by more than 333% to just over $2 billion in 2013, and account for a 12.9% share of the global net mobile advertising market.

eMarketer estimates that Google made $4.61 billion in mobile internet ad revenues last year, more than triple its earnings in 2011. This year's mobile revenues will be up a further 92.1% to $8.85 billion.

Combined, three companies—Google, Facebook and Twitter—account for a consolidating share of mobile advertising revenues worldwide, as other players, such as YP, Pandora, Apple and Millennial Media, see their shares decrease, despite maintaining relatively strong businesses growing at rapid rates.

Cannibalization of Ad Market

My friend "BC" who sent the links surmises ....

"The decline in magazine ad revenues is approximately the same as the increase in Internet and  mobile/social media ads; therefore, the net increase in ads is a wash, i.e., cannibalization of the advertising market. Companies earning their revenues from ads will now be in a zero-sum competition for no growth of, and later a falling number of, ad dollars hereafter."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Words are hooks, words are levers

 

Words are hooks, words are levers

There's a debate raging in my town over whether or not to replace the existing planted-grass school football field with what used to be known as Astroturf. One side has already won a crucial victory: the local paper calls the new alternative, "turf."

Turf is what we call a racetrack, or half a fancy dinner (surf and...). Turf is short and punchy and feels organic. If they had called it 'plastic' or 'fake grass' or 'artificial turf', every conversation would feel different before we even started.

What to call the new diamonds that are being manufactured in labs, not dug out of the ground under horrible conditions? Some want them to be called 'artificial diamonds' or not diamonds at all. Others might prefer 'flawless' diamonds (because they are) or 'perfect'.

Is it a 'course', a 'group' or a 'club'? It might be all three, but the word you choose will change the anchor and thus the leverage that word has going forward. Are you a 'consultant', an 'advisor' or a 'coach'?

Engineers and doctors and other scientists seem to think they're skipping all of this when they use precise, specific language. But the obvious specificity and the desire to scare off untrained laypeople is in itself a form of leverage.

For politicians and others that want to re-invent the language for their own ends--you can work to plant your hook anywhere you choose, but if you torture the meaning and spin, spin, spin, you risk being seen as a manipulator, and all your leverage disappears. If your hook finds no purchase, you have no leverage.

On the other hand, the great brands (Pepsi, Kodak, etc.) planted words that meant nothing and built expensive fortresses around their words, words that now have emotional power.

The only reason words have meaning is because we agree on what they mean. And that meaning comes from associating those words with other words, words that often have emotional anchors for us. This isn't merely the spin of political consultants. It goes right to the heart of how we (and our ideas) are judged.

       

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

sâmbătă, 3 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013; Full-Time Employment Down Over 5 Million Since 2007

Posted: 03 Aug 2013 08:26 PM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace provides another excellent set of graphs on employment as shown below.

Full-Time Employment



click on any chart for sharper image

  • Full time employment is actually now 5.17 million below the 2007 level.
  • Total employment is 2.2 million below the 2007 level in spite of 13 million more people of working age.

Part-Time Employment



Wallace writes: "The past five years are near or above the previous all time high set back in 1982. These five years are all in that abysmal range. No other year comes close. I expect things will get worse as the year continues."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

World’s lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for "imperceptible electronics"; Man vs. Machine Comparison

Posted: 03 Aug 2013 09:12 AM PDT

The latest news from RoboHub shows World's lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for 'imperceptible electronics'.
Researchers from Asia and Europe have developed the world's lightest and thinnest organic circuits, which in the future could be used in a range of healthcare applications.

The new flexible touch sensor is the world's thinnest, lightest and people cannot feel the existence of this device.

The circuits are extremely lightweight, flexible, durable and thin, and conform to any surface. They are just 2 microns thick, just 1/5 that of kitchen wrap, and weighing only 3g/m^2, are 30 times lighter than office paper. They also feature a bend radius of 5 microns, meaning they can be scrunched up into a ball, without breaking. Due to these properties the researchers have dubbed them "imperceptible electronics", which can be placed on any surface and even worn without restricting the users movement.

The integrated circuits are manufactured on rolls of one micron thick plastic film, making them easily scalable and cheap to produce. And if the circuit is placed on a rubber surface it becomes stretchable, able to withstand up to 233% tensile strain, while retaining full functionality.

"This is a very convenient way of making electronics stretchable because you can fabricate high performance devices in a flat state and then just transfer them over to a stretchable substrate and create something that is very compliant and stretchable just by a simple pick and place process."
Video on "Imperceptible Electronics"



Link if video does not play: Imperceptible Electronics

Carl the Robot Serves Drinks

In case you missed it, please consider Carl the Robot Bartender Mixes Drinks and Chats With Customers

Also note that Farm Robots to Make Migrant Worker Vegetable Pickers Obsolete; Welcome the "Lettuce Bot", the "Grape Bot", the "Strawberry Bot"

Man vs. Machine Perspective

For comparison purposes, a Facebook video shows "Humans are Awesome".

Play the video for a very entertaining perspective on what Robots are up against.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

IMF "Baseline Scenario" Projects Spain Unemployment Will Remain Above 25% for 5 Years with Little Growth

Posted: 03 Aug 2013 03:50 AM PDT

I am normally critical of IMF forecasts, but their baseline unemployment projection for Spain of 25% or more with no more than .6% annual growth through 2017 seems reasonable. The pessimistic scenario is a toxic deleveraging downward spiral that continues right now.

The optimistic scenario assumes 2% growth, but that scenario does not start until 2018, and only if labor reforms in Spain and Europe take place.

Via Mish-modified Google translate from El Economista, please consider IMF estimates that Spain will grow by an average of 0.6% over the next five years
The team led by James Daniel, Chief of Mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Spain, estimates unemployment, which will remain above 25% over the next five years.

Ignoring the 1.6% downturn that the IMF expects the country to suffer this year, the average growth for the Spanish economy between 2014 and 2018 will be 0.6%. GDP growth will remain below 1% until 2017 and thereafter only begin to expand beyond these levels.

In 2018, the optimistic scenario in which reforms (both from Spain and Europe) are accelerated and gain ground would result in an acceleration of growth of 2% in 2018 and a significant increase in employment.

The pessimistic scenario starts immediately if deleveraging pressures and financial difficulties intensify. This scenario would create a toxic spiral between macro and financial context and would leave the public and private debt at high levels in the future, the country would not grow until 2017, and unemployment would remain above 27%.

The baseline scenario suggests Spain will probably start to grow later this year, in the third or fourth quarter, but that's not important. "The really important question is whether Spain will grow enough to create a lot of jobs to reduce the unacceptably high unemployment and increasing family income".

Unfortunately, growth will not be strong and have to generate a lot more work. Reducing unemployment requires action in many areas, including from Europe, "specifically on labor issues." The head of the IMF Mission explained that to ensure job creation Spain needs a further increase in wage flexibility, improvement in training for the unemployed, reduced taxes and elimination of regulations that discourage hiring.

The Fund criticizes the adjustment burden continues to fall on employment (temporary and youth especially) instead of wages. It therefore recommends a social pact in which employers commit to hiring increases in exchange for wage cuts of up to 10% over the next two years.

According to the IMF, these measures should be accompanied by a reduction in employers' contributions to social security and VAT increased two years of pay cuts.
IMF Proposes Spain Reduce Wages by 10% in Two Years

Via Google translate, La Vanguardia reports IMF Proposes Spain Reduce Wages by 10% in Two Years
The IMF said today that it would be beneficial to Spain a social pact in which employers commit to hiring increases in exchange for wage cuts in agency models would be 10% in two years.

These measures should be accompanied by a reduction in employers' contributions to social security and VAT increased two years after wage cuts, according to the annual report on the Spanish economy published today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF urges Spain to "greatly reduce the number of contracts", reviving the idea advocated by some analysts and agencies to establish "a permanent contract with lower firing costs initially and gradually increase with seniority."
IMF Silliness

Hiking the VAT is ridiculous, hiring commitments are ridiculous, and although lowering wages is likely a good idea, the free market should set rates, not government bureaucrats who have no idea what wages should be.

The best way for Spain to reduce its deficit is not by hiking the VAT, but by getting rid of government bureaucrats and lowering pension benefits for government workers. 

IMF Projections

Projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross domestic product-3.7 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
Unemployment rate (percent)18.0 20.1 21.7 25.0 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.3
Deficit as Percent of GDP -11.2 -9.7 -9.0 -7.0 -6.7 -5.9 -5.1 -4.2 -3.3 -2.3

The above table condensed from IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Spain

Note that the IMF does not think Spain will reduce its deficit below 3% until 2018. Prime Minister Rajoy thinks the deficit will be 2.7% by 2016. Recall that in April of 2012, Rajoy projected 3% by 2013. 2016 is fantasy-land material as well. Even the IMF projection is highly optimistic (at best).

Spain may return to growth for a brief while later this year, but don't expect many jobs out of it. Spain needs labor reform, work rule reform, pension reform and lower taxes. So does France, Greece, Italy, and the rest of Europe.

Unfortunately, Brussels is likely to demand higher taxes, and the unions are likely to resist the needed reforms. A further downward spiral is not out of the question, but neither is stagnation and zero growth  (lower than the baseline scenario of the IMF).

The optimistic scenario is five years away at the earliest, and unlikely at that, unless unions suddenly give in to badly needed reforms and/or some strong political leader can force free-market policies over substantial opposition.

In the meantime, who knows what crazy rules the Nannycrats in Brussels are likely to come up with?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

The President Has a Better Bargain for the Middle Class

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

The President Has a Better Bargain for the Middle Class

President Obama tells the American people that his plan for creating a better bargain for the middle class builds on the progress we’ve made -- fighting our way back from the worst economic recession of our lifetimes.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

 
 
  Top Stories

Watch the West Wing Week here.

Korean War Veterans: Speaking from the National Mall, President Obama honored veterans and commemorated the 60th anniversary of the end of the Korean War on Saturday. The President praised the men and women for their sacrifices, saying,

“Veterans of the Korean War -- in the spring of your youth you learned how short and precious life can be. And because of you, millions of people can keep on living it, in freedom and in peace. Your lives are an inspiration. Your service will never be forgotten. You have the thanks of a grateful nation. And your shining deeds will live -- now and forever.”

Voting Rights: Following last month’s Supreme Court decision overturning the Voting Rights Act, President Obama met with civil rights leaders and elected officials on Monday. While at the White House, the President expressed his disappointment in the ruling and the group discussed ways to ensure every American has the right to vote.

San Francisco Giants: The San Francisco Giants visited the White House on Monday to celebrate their 2012 World Series championship. President Obama congratulated the team on their win and highlighted the steps they’re taking toward improving their neighborhoods by stressing the importance of healthy eating and supporting the LGBT community.

Chattanooga: President Obama visited an Amazon fulfillment center in Chattanooga, Tennessee on Tuesday to speak about his vision for a thriving middle class. The President discussed his plan for simplifying the corporate tax code, and bringing jobs back to the United States and expressed the need for action in Washington.

“If Washington spent as much time and energy these past two years figuring out how to grow our economy and grow our middle class as it’s spent manufacturing crises in pursuit of a cut-at-all-costs approach to deficits, we’d be much better off. We’d be much better off.”

While in Chattanooga, the President also sat down for a “Kindle Singles Interview.” Read it here.

UConn Huskies: On Wednesday, the 2013 NCAA Division I women’s basketball champion UConn Huskies stopped by the White House. The President celebrated their eighth NCAA championship and commitment to positively impacting the communities around them.

“Last year, players visited the Hole in the Wall Gang Camp for children with serious illnesses; joined the Walk for Autism,” the President said. “Geno just held his 11th annual charity golf tournament. And while you may be rivals with Baylor on the court, you joined together off the court to raise over $30,000 for the Kay Yow Cancer Fund.”

Health Care Help for Businesses: Thursday marked the launch of a new website – Business.USA.gov/healthcare – a one-stop-shop for business leaders with questions about the Affordable Care Act. The site allows employers to received tailored information on how Obamacare affects their businesses – from measures to help slow the growth of health care costs to tax credits for small businesses. 

 

Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy
Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : Mumbo vs. Jumbo

 

Mumbo vs. Jumbo

Jumbo was the famous elephant that PT Barnum exhibited. His name came to stand for the big story, for the audacious claim, for making quite a noise.

You probably need more Jumbo in the story you're trying to tell.

Mumbo, on the other hand, is deliberately obfuscating the facts. Mumbo is manipulation, the creation of placebos that don't scale or the extension of power without the facts to back you up.

No more mumbo please.

Feel free to quote me on that the next time someone brings you a big heaping plate of hype.

[In fact, Mumbo-jumbo was probably a term that was xenophobic when it was first used more than a century ago (having nothing to do with elephants but probably something to do with an exotic religion), but I think it has evolved to have more to do with technology and slick salesmanship now.]

Mumbo just doesn't last as long as it used to.

       

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

vineri, 2 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


NSA tool collects "Nearly Everything You Do On the Internet"; Targeting Journalists; What Google Knows About You; Warrantless Cellphone Tracking Upheld

Posted: 02 Aug 2013 09:09 AM PDT

Today I offer a quartet of news stories on the NSA, widespread targeting of Journalists even by New Zealand, broad cellphone tracking, and a synopsis of what Google knows about you.

Let's kick off with the Guardian XKeyscore: NSA tool collects 'nearly everything a user does on the internet'.
• XKeyscore gives 'widest-reaching' collection of online data
• NSA analysts require no prior authorization for searches
• Sweeps up emails, social media activity and browsing history

A top secret National Security Agency program allows analysts to search with no prior authorization through vast databases containing emails, online chats and the browsing histories of millions of individuals, according to documents provided by whistleblower Edward Snowden.

The NSA boasts in training materials that the program, called XKeyscore, is its "widest-reaching" system for developing intelligence from the internet.

XKeyscore, the documents boast, is the NSA's "widest reaching" system developing intelligence from computer networks – what the agency calls Digital Network Intelligence (DNI). One presentation claims the program covers "nearly everything a typical user does on the internet", including the content of emails, websites visited and searches, as well as their metadata.



The purpose of XKeyscore is to allow analysts to search the metadata as well as the content of emails and other internet activity, such as browser history, even when there is no known email account (a "selector" in NSA parlance) associated with the individual being targeted.

Analysts can also search by name, telephone number, IP address, keywords, the language in which the internet activity was conducted or the type of browser used.

William Binney, a former NSA mathematician, said last year that the agency had "assembled on the order of 20 trillion transactions about US citizens with other US citizens", an estimate, he said, that "only was involving phone calls and emails". A 2010 Washington Post article reported that "every day, collection systems at the [NSA] intercept and store 1.7 billion emails, phone calls and other type of communications."
Targeting of Investigative Journalists

Pater Tenebrarum on the Acting Man blog writes about the Targeting of Investigative Journalists and those opposed to the War in Afghanistan.
There are seemingly constantly new revelations about extremely questionable practices employed by the security apparatus. The latest comes from 'five eyes' partner New Zealand, which not too long ago had to admit that its spooks illegally spied on Kim Dotcom to help the FBI make an example of the man in the context of copyright enforcement (we have previously discussed the case of Dotcom, who is accused of breaking laws that apparently don't even exist).

New Zealand's reaction to this embarrassment was, as you may have guessed, to introduce new legislation that will henceforth legalize domestic spying. In the meantime, its security apparatus seems not really deterred by the embarrassment caused to it by the Dotcom case and continues to engage in  highly dubious surveillance activities, actively aided and abetted by US intelligence services. The target in the latest case was an investigative journalist working for McClatchy. Here is an excerpt from an article on the matter by the CPJ, [the Committee to Protect Journalists]. We want to direct your attention especially to the final paragraph below, which is quite chilling:

"Concern over government surveillance of journalists has washed up on the faraway shores of New Zealand, with a report in the country's Sunday Star this week asserting that the military there, with help from U.S. intelligence, spied on an investigative journalist who had been critical of its activities in Afghanistan.

Compounding concerns about the New Zealand military's targeting of journalists, the Sunday Star reported that a confidential military training manual drafted in 2003 lists investigative journalists as one of the top threats to state security–up there with terrorists and hostile foreign intelligence groups. A military official in New Zealand acknowledged the existence of the manual on Monday, referring to it as "inappropriate and heavy-handed," and ordered a revision to remove any references to journalists, news reports said."


Whether or not they remove the references to journalists from their training manual, the mindset is clear – this is what they actually believe: "Investigative journalists are one of the top threats to state security–up there with terrorists and hostile foreign intelligence groups."

We have to admit that this is actually true – in a dictatorship. In allegedly free countries, investigative journalists are usually deemed to be among the people who help seeing to it that they remain free.
Search for Pressure Cooker Leads to Knock on Door From Terrorism Police

Via reference from ZeroHedge, please consider pressure cookers, backpacks and quinoa, oh my!
It was a confluence of magnificent proportions that led six agents from the joint terrorism task force to knock on my door Wednesday morning. Little did we know our seemingly innocent, if curious to a fault, Googling of certain things was creating a perfect storm of terrorism profiling. Because somewhere out there, someone was watching. Someone whose job it is to piece together the things people do on the internet raised the red flag when they saw our search history.

Most of it was innocent enough. I had researched pressure cookers. My husband was looking for a backpack. And maybe in another time those two things together would have seemed innocuous, but we are in "these times" now.

I was at work when it happened. My husband called me as soon as it was over, almost laughing about it but I wasn't joining in the laughter. His call left me shaken and anxious.

What happened was this: At about 9:00 am, my husband, who happened to be home yesterday, was sitting in the living room with our two dogs when he heard a couple of cars pull up outside. He looked out the window and saw three black SUVs in front of our house; two at the curb in front and one pulled up behind my husband's Jeep in the driveway, as if to block him from leaving.

Six gentleman in casual clothes emerged from the vehicles and spread out as they walked toward the house, two toward the backyard on one side, two on the other side, two toward the front door.

They walked around the living room, studied the books on the shelf (nope, no bomb making books, no Anarchist Cookbook), looked at all our pictures, glanced into our bedroom, pet our dogs. They asked if they could go in my son's bedroom but when my husband said my son was sleeping in there, they let it be.

They asked about me, where was I, where do I work, where do my parents live. Do you have any bombs, they asked. Do you own a pressure cooker? My husband said no, but we have a rice cooker. Can you make a bomb with that? My husband said no, my wife uses it to make quinoa. What the hell is quinoa, they asked.

Have you ever looked up how to make a pressure cooker bomb? My husband, ever the oppositional kind, asked them if they themselves weren't curious as to how a pressure cooker bomb works, if they ever looked it up. Two of them admitted they did.

45 minutes later, they shook my husband's hand and left. That's when he called me and relayed the story. That's when I felt a sense of creeping dread take over. What else had I looked up? What kind of searches did I do that alone seemed innocent enough but put together could make someone suspicious?

They mentioned that they do this about 100 times a week.

Mostly I felt a great sense of anxiety. This is where we are at. Where you have no expectation of privacy. Where trying to learn how to cook some lentils could possibly land you on a watch list. Where you have to watch every little thing you do because someone else is watching every little thing you do.

All I know is if I'm going to buy a pressure cooker in the near future, I'm not doing it online.

I'm scared. And not of the right things.

CLARIFICATION AND UPDATE

We found out through the Suffolk Police Department that the searches involved also things my husband looked up at his old job. We were not made aware of this at the time of questioning and were led to believe it was solely from searches from within our house.
Warrantless Cellphone Tracking Upheld

The New York Times reports Warrantless Cellphone Tracking Is Upheld
In a significant victory for law enforcement, a federal appeals court on Tuesday said that government authorities could extract historical location data directly from telecommunications carriers without a search warrant.

The closely watched case, in the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, is the first ruling that squarely addresses the constitutionality of warrantless searches of historical location data stored by cellphone service providers. Ruling 2 to 1, the court said a warrantless search was "not per se unconstitutional" because location data was "clearly a business record" and therefore not protected by the Fourth Amendment.

For now, the ruling sets an important precedent: It allows law enforcement officials in the Fifth Circuit to chronicle the whereabouts of an American with a court order that falls short of a search warrant based on probable cause.

"This decision is a big deal," said Catherine Crump, a lawyer with the American Civil Liberties Union. "It's a big deal and a big blow to Americans' privacy rights."

Cellphone privacy measures have been proposed in the Senate and House that would require law enforcement agents to obtain search warrants before prying open location records. Montana recently became the first state to require a warrant for location data. Maine soon followed. California passed a similar measure last year but Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, vetoed it, saying it did not strike what he called the right balance between the demands of civil libertarians and the police.
What Google Knows About You

Tyler Durden at Zerohedge has an interesting post What Google Knows About You.

It's safe to assume everything you have ever searched for, every address you looked up on Google, every email you sent, every chat message, every YouTube video you watched. It's also safe to assume every entry is time-stamped, so it's clear exactly, down to the minute, when all of this was done, and where you were at when you did it.

The data can and will be used against you, in many imaginable ways, and in some ways you may not have remotely conceived, such as how searching for pressure cookers may get you an unexpected call from the terrorist police.

My friend Pater Tenebrarum commented via email "The alleged 'separation of powers' is increasingly revealed as a sham - in the end, you have the government 'controlling' and 'limiting' itself."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Establishment Survey: +162K Jobs, May and June Revised Lower; Household Survey: +227K; Part-Time Jobs +103,000

Posted: 02 Aug 2013 07:25 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 162,000 jobs.

The previous two months were revised lower. The employment change for May revised down by 19,000 (from +195,000 to +176,000), and the employment change for June revised down by 7,000 (from +195,000 to +188,000).

The unemployment rate dropped 0.2 to 7.4%.

Explaining the Unemployment Rate Drop

  • Employment rose by 227,000 of which 103,000 were part-time jobs. 
  • The Civilian Labor Force Declined by 37,000 even though population rose by 204,000.
  • Those "Not in Labor Force" rose by 240,000.
  • Participation Rate fell 0.1 to 63.4%, a mere 0.1 higher than the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.

July BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Payrolls +162,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Employment +227,000 - Household Survey
  • US Unemployment -263,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work +19,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work +84,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.2 - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment -0.3 to 14.0% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Labor Force -37,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force -240,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate -0.1 at 63.4 - Household Survey


Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,598,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,035,000 (an average of 170,000 a month)
  • In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,745,000 to 11,514,000 (a drop of 1,231,000)
  • Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 37.0%, an increase of 0.3 from last month. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
  • 8,245,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,245,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.


June 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade, food services and drinking places, financial activities, and wholesale trade.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Month to Month Changes Since 2009



click on chart for sharper image

Change From Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees fell 0.1 to 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees fell 0.1 to 33.2 hours. Average hourly earnings of all private workers fell $0.02 to $23.98. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees fell $0.02 to $23.69.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013



Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.4%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.0%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 9%. In addition, there are 8,245,000 people who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com