miercuri, 21 august 2013

The Day the Knowledge Graph Exploded (+50.4%)

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 07:56 PM PDT

The morning of July 19th there was a major Google update, and no one is talking about it. Put simply: We missed it, because we just weren't looking for it. Overnight, the number of queries we track in the MozCast 10K beta system that show some kind of Knowledge Graph jumped from 17.8% to 26.7%, an increase of over 50%. This was not a test or a one-day fluke â€" here's a graph for all of July 2013 (as of August 20th, the number has remained stable near 27%):

So, let's get to the meat of it â€" who were the big overnight winners? What did those "new" Knowledge Graph boxes look like, and were there any clear patterns?

The overnight winners

There were 908 queries that picked up Knowledge Graph (KG) entries on July 19th in our data, so the full list is a bit much for a blog post, but let's look at 20 high-volume queries (this data was actually pulled on August 16th, since some queries had lost KG boxes in the interim):

At a glance, 16 of these seem to be known brands (I think we can count "ancestry" and "cheap tickets" as brand queries in 2013), with "forex", "tractor supply", "discount tire", and "nectar" not having obvious brand associations. We'll come back to "forex" (I discovered something interesting there), but Google is treating both "tractor supply" and "discount tire" as brand queries. The Knowledge Graph for "tractor supply" shows:

A search for "discount tire" shows a smaller, expanding KG entry, below ads and a map (for my search, at least):

The one clear outlier in this group was the search for "nectar", which pulled up two KG-style entries (we classify them pretty loosely, to throw a wide net): (1) an answer-box style entry (but in the right-hand column), and (2) a disambiguation box:

Across the entire data set, "brand" queries seemed to fare well in this Knowledge Graph gold rush, although there were exceptions. Let's look at an interesting case â€" the search for "forex".

The Forex oddity

"Forex" is a highly competitive search term, and pretty notorious for being spammed. When I went to check the query, I wasn't seeing a Knowledge Graph entry, so I took a look at the history since mid-July. The #1 position has bounced back and forth between Wikipedia and Forex.com. Across 32 days of data (since July 19th), Wikipedia has ranked #1 (in our data set) 10 of those days. Every day Wikipedia has ranked #1, the SERP has shown a Knowledge Graph entry:

On the 22 days where Forex.com ranked #1 (and Wikipedia ranked #2), a Knowledge Graph entry only appeared three times (13.6%). As you can see, the KG entry is informational, suggesting that Google is interpreting the query as an information-seeking search. While this is highly speculative, it's possible that the informational interpretation that drives this KG entry is also pushing Wikipedia into the #1 spot. When, for whatever reason, Google interprets the query more loosely or as a navigational query, then Forex.com ranks #1 and the KG entry often disappears. Again, this is just speculation, but it does demonstrate that â€" like rankings â€" KG entries are being interpreted and displayed in real-time and can fluctuate from search to search.

The Wikipedia connection

You can see even from these few examples that many of the new results are using data from Wikipedia. When Google launched Knowledge Graph in May of 2012, they stated that "Google's Knowledge Graph isn't just rooted in public sources such as Freebase, Wikipedia and the CIA World Factbook." Of course, this implies that Freebase, Wikipedia, and the CIA Factbook are sources, and observations of KG data seem to support this.

What's interesting about the new Knowledge Graph entries coming from Wikipedia is that they suggest that the data itself isn't new. It's unlikely that Wikipedia entries/data exploded overnight, so that leaves us with two theories: (1) Google imported more existing Wikipedia data, or (2) Google chose to let more queries display a Knowledge Graph entry and lowered some kind of algorithmic threshold. As large as Wikipedia is, it's unlikely that storage capacity is a major issue for Google, so I think that (2) is the more likely explanation â€" Google has simply loosened the restrictions on which queries can trigger the Knowledge Graph.

The entity connection

So, what's tipping these new Knowledge Graph entries? I try to avoid the word "brand" when talking about the algorithm, because it carries a lot of bias and we all seem to mean something a little different. I do think, however, that there is an entity connection that certainly looks brand-like. Here's another odd query that gained a KG entry on July 19th â€" "chicken recipes":

For most of us, I think Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken is a bit of stretch for "chicken recipes", which is clearly an informational query. Even Google organic results clearly recognize the intent, with actual recipes for chicken dishes taking up the entire top 10.

Here's another odd query that generated a suggestion for an entity â€" "army games":

What's funny is that Google doesn't display a "Showing results forâ€¦" spelling correction or seem to think that I actually meant "armor" when I typed "army". They've just chosen to give a fairly unrelated entity a bit of extra credit. All of the top 10 rankings are based on "army" and there is no mention of Armor Games outside of the KG entry.

The entity/brand connection is a nice theory, but then we have a query like "vegetarian recipes", which also picked up a KG entry on July 19th:

Here, the Knowledge Graph entry is informational, and doesn't seem to have a brand/entity association. So, before we go off on the "BIG BRANDS GET ALL THE BREAKS!" warpath, I think we have to take a deep breath and try to get a handle on the facts. My gut feeling is that Google has bumped up the volume on the Knowledge Graph, letting KG entries appear more frequently.

In many cases, this seems to have benefited brands, but keep two things in mind: (1) Many of these brands are small, and (2) That could be a side effect and not the primary intent. The simple fact is that brands are entities, and as Google builds a "web of things," entities are going to gain ground and pages are likely going to lose ground.

Update (August 21st)

In the comments, Will Critchlow pointed out that Nectar is a well-known brand in the UK. When you search "nectar" on Google.co.uk, the entity/brand association is much clearer:

So, essentially, 19 out of the 20 queries on that list were brand-related, with "forex" being ambiguous depending on the context. This also clearly shows the impact of localization and the complexity of how KG entries are being triggered.

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This Is Why It's Time to Make College More Affordable

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This Is Why It's Time to Make College More Affordable

An affordable college education is a cornerstone of middle-class security. But while incomes for typical families have grown by only 16%, the average tuition has more than tripled.

That's why President Obama will be in New York and Pennsylvania tomorrow, visiting campuses and pushing to make college more affordable.

Check out this graphic to learn more.

Seth's Blog : All good ideas are terrible

All good ideas are terrible

Until people realize they are obvious.

If you're not willing to live through the terrible stage, you'll never get to the obvious part.

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marți, 20 august 2013

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Why Work for $7.25 When Welfare Pays $15.00 in 12 States and $8.00 in 33 States? Is a Low Minimum Wage the Problem?
Socialist Delusion: France Promises Full Employment, a Third Industrial Revolution, an Affordable Housing Utopia in 10 Years
Surprise Awakening Awaits Merkel in September Election: No Stable Government

Why Work for $7.25 When Welfare Pays $15.00 in 12 States and $8.00 in 33 States? Is a Low Minimum Wage the Problem?

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:47 PM PDT

Michael Tanner at the Cato Institute notes Welfare Pays Better than Work in 33 states.

The federal government funds 126 separate programs targeted towards low-income people, 72 of which provide either cash or in-kind benefits to individuals. (The rest fund community-wide programs for low-income neighborhoods, with no direct benefits to individuals.) State and local governments operate more welfare programs.Of course, no individual or family gets benefits from all 72 programs, but many do get aid from a number of them at any point in time.

In the Empire State, a family receiving Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Medicaid, food stamps, WIC, public housing, utility assistance and free commodities (like milk and cheese) would have a package of benefits worth $38,004, the seventh-highest in the nation.

Welfare is slightly more generous in Connecticut, where benefits are worth $38,761; a person leaving welfare for work would have to earn $21.33 per hour to be better off. And in New Jersey, a worker would have to make $20.89 to beat welfare.

Nationwide, our study found that the wage-equivalent value of benefits for a mother and two children ranged from a high of $60,590 in Hawaii to a low of $11,150 in Idaho. In 33 states and the District of Columbia, welfare pays more than an $8-an-hour job. In 12 states and DC, the welfare package is more generous than a $15-an-hour job.

People Aren't That Stupid

While it's beneficial to have a job, assuming there is hope of advancement, for those with no special skills there is little to no hope of advancement.

Moreover, wages are taxed, welfare benefits are not. And what about day-care costs for single mothers? What about transportation costs? What about the value of extra leisure time?

Add it all up and it makes perfect sense for many to remain on welfare for as long as they can.

Minimum Wage Fallacy

Given welfare benefits exceed minimum wage, it should not be surprising to find socialists arguing for higher minimum wages. And they are.

In Seattle, a Campaign Seeks to Push Minimum Wage to $15.

How successful would that be?

Not very.

The higher the minimum wage, the more incentive businesses have to get rid of employees and use hardware and software robots. And with the Fed suppressing interest rates, companies can borrow with miniscule interest rates and do just that.

Should minimum wages rise, the recipient workers would benefit, but at the expense of millions of others who would lose a job or not get one.

Then when prices rose in response, the socialists would ask for increased welfare benefits to keep up with the rising cost of living!

More Minimum Wage Nonsense

The socialists are out in force. Heidi Moore on the Guardian writes How low can you get: the minimum wage scam.

Wonder why benefit spending is rising? Simple: corporations get away with crappy wages, so government has to make up the rest.

The grim irony of minimum-wage America is that many who work in the fast-food industry need food stamps to get by.

You'd think the exceptionally low minimum-wage – $7.25 an hour – would be the shame of a country like the United States that prides itself on its economic leadership. Half of minimum-wage jobs are held by adults over 25 years old, and asking adults to live on $7.25, or $14,500 a year, doesn't leave them with enough to rent an apartment, commute to work, raise a child and participate in society in any meaningful way.

No Heidi, the sad state of affairs is that socialist fools have no idea what is going on. As Michael Tanner at the Cato Institute points out, it does not pay to work. So people don't.

Don't blame low wages, blame high prices.

The Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the central bank in China are all printing money hand over fist hoping to spur job growth. Instead, they fueled another stock market bubble, a bond market bubble, and revived the property bubble.

Congress enacted hundreds of affordable housing programs. The one and only thing those programs did was create a housing bubble.

When prices crashed, government and the Fed stepped in with attempts to reblow the housing bubble (proving of course no one really wanted affordable housing in the first place). Rather, the Fed wanted a stock-market party and Congress wanted a vote-buying party).

Is Low Minimum Wage the Problem?

Perceived low wages are a symptom of the problem, not the problem.

The problem is socialist fools, progressives, and war mongers sloshing other peoples' money around. For that, place the blame where it precisely belongs: on central bankers, on fractional reserve lending, and on government bureaucrats who interfere in the free market.

We do not need higher wages, we need lower prices. With productivity advancements we would have just that, absent of course the socialist fools, the progressives, the war mongers, and the central bankers.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Socialist Delusion: France Promises Full Employment, a Third Industrial Revolution, an Affordable Housing Utopia in 10 Years

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 09:37 AM PDT

If you are looking for a good laugh today, simply read Ministers set out utopian but hazy vision of a strong France

France's Socialist government has set out a gleaming vision of the future marked by full employment and cutting-edge factories thanks to "a third industrial revolution".

The France of tomorrow would be a safer place where justice was quicker and cheaper and where today's stressful experience of finding affordable housing would be transformed into "a pleasant moment in one's life", cabinet ministers said on Monday.

In a speech that ranged from social inclusion to global warming and industrial policy, President François Hollande said at the event that such a long-term vision was necessary because "a decade is time to bring about change".

By 2025, it was a "realistic" target for the country to reach technical full employment and have "recovered fully its budgetary sovereignty", according to the reports. Among other things, France would have no problem placing debt, he reportedly said.

Manuel Valls, Mr Hollande's interior minister, talked of closing the gap between the state and the population by upgrading today's police force to a 3.0 version. Details appeared scarce.

On Monday, he [Hollande] tried to reassure the sceptics by acknowledging the most pressing challenges following the break: the budget; the economic recovery's effects on the jobless rate; and pensions.

"Answers [on how Hollande will achieve his socialist utopia vision of full employment, a third industrial revolution, and tackle global warming, complete with a pleasant moment of affordable housing] will be provided by the government between now and the end of the month."

I can hardly wait for for the laughs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Surprise Awakening Awaits Merkel in September Election: No Stable Government

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 08:42 AM PDT

In response to my August 13 post Tale of Colours, All in Denial; Assessing Merkel's Chances reader Bernd from Germany (not AfD chairman Bernd Lucke) offered these comments ...

Hello Mish

Main stream parties have had success pushing AfD into the "right wing" corner. It would appear that many voters or potential voters are "embarrassed" to be seen in that environment, rightly or wrongly. As is tradition in Germany, under such circumstances potential voters will lie to polls and pollsters.

Internal polls by AfD – professionally done by independent pollsters – show AfD consistently at above 8%. Correspondingly CDU/CSU is lower by approximately that same figure.

I do not say AFD will be in the next Parliament with 8% of seats, however, I believe AfD will do a lot better than expected by anyone in main stream at this moment. I also believe that "other parties" will clock much better results than polled right now. A party to watch are "Die Piraten", which are coming out of their very low figures.

If there is a considerably higher voter turnout than expected (expected is 60%), it might be a "blood bath" for main stream parties. Please note: there are about 20 additional parties on the election ticket, more than at any time before. If 2 of them get 4% and the remainder each get 0.5% you will have 17% of voters not represented in Parliament due to Germany's 5% hurdle. If that outcome comes true, all current predictions are out the window, irrespective of who made them, especially for coalition possibilities.

I maintain it will be a surprise awakening by Mm Merkel and her CDU/CSU as well as by many other "main stream" parties. I stick to my predictions made months ago. There will be no stable Government in Germany after the elections, save for the CDU/CSU-SPD one (grand coalition). I doubt such a coalition can happen under Mm Merkel's leadership.

Best wishes
Bernd

AfD appears unlikely to get to the 10% I thought possible a few months ago, but even 5% will prove very problematic to Merkel, even more so if FDP does not get the 5% it needs.

The September election will be interesting to say the least.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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miercuri, 21 august 2013

The Day the Knowledge Graph Exploded (+50.4%)

The Day the Knowledge Graph Exploded (+50.4%)

The overnight winners

The Forex oddity

The Wikipedia connection

The entity connection

Update (August 21st)

This Is Why It's Time to Make College More Affordable

Seth's Blog : All good ideas are terrible

All good ideas are terrible

More Recent Articles

marți, 20 august 2013

Începe promovarea prin AdWords și transformă primii 50RON investiți în 250RON.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Collaborate smarter by giving colleagues access to key Analytics reports

Spread the word.

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miercuri, 21 august 2013

The overnight winners

The Forex oddity

The Wikipedia connection

The entity connection

Update (August 21st)

More Recent Articles

marți, 20 august 2013

Spread the word.

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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