luni, 16 septembrie 2013

Seth's Blog : What works?

 

What works?

We are capable of abandoning, bullying, raping, murdering, belittling, undermining, objectifying, cheating, stealing, ignoring, maligning, spamming, excoriating and arguing.

And the very same people can support, trust, connect, lead, inspire, invent, illuminate and wait patiently.

The extraordinary thing is that we've built a society where the second category pays off more than it ever has before. The media would prefer the former, of course. It's more fun to cover a fight than it is to report on progress. And the fast-twitch world prefers the caveman stuff as well. Tweet your first impression, better hurry. That's what our lizard brain evolved to do, it's our first instinct.

In the connection economy, though, the thoughtful, patient, mature and modern approach wins out. Because connection is built on trust and generosity, not on snark and short-term wins.

Day trading isn't nearly as valuable as building something that lasts.

When your inner caveman shows up, the question you might ask him is, "will this juicy, satisfying, visceral action in the moment build my connection and weave a platform for my future, or is the price I'm paying for pleasing the crowd the fact that I'm tearing my platform down?"

       

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duminică, 15 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Yellen It Is; Gold Soars; Summers Drops Out; Yellen 100% Assured to Make a Mess

Posted: 15 Sep 2013 07:31 PM PDT

Anyone smart enough to withdraw from the race to replace Ben Bernanke as next Fed chairman must have something on the ball, at least temporarily.

The Larry Summers' haters got their wish today as Summers withdrew his name from consideration.

Summers called president Obama, then issued a a formal withdrawal letter stating "I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interest of the Federal Reserve, the Administration or, ultimately, the interests of the nation's ongoing economic recovery."

In response, the White House issued a statement "Earlier today, I spoke with Larry Summers and accepted his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Larry was a critical member of my team as we faced down the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and it was in no small part because of his expertise, wisdom, and leadership that we wrestled the economy back to growth and made the kind of progress we are seeing today. I will always be grateful to Larry for his tireless work and service on behalf of his country, and I look forward to continuing to seek his guidance and counsel in the future."

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture mocked the withdrawal with a spoof Translated into Truth: On Summers Withdrawing Name
"Earlier today, I spoke with Larry Summers and accepted his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Larry was a critical contributor to the radical deregulation that was one of many causes of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It was in no small part because of his lack of expertise, false wisdom, and inept leadership that the economy crashed and burned and even today is still failing to be to back to its full growth potential.

As Treasury Secretary, he helped to pass the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. This turned derivatives into a unique financial instrument with no oversight, reserve requirements, mandated disclosures, or listing minimums. The CFMA all but guaranteed that Derivatives would eventually implode. Summers further contributed to the crisis by Summers by overseeing the repeal of Glass Steagall. With this firebreak between Wall Street and Main Street effectively removed, the financial conflagration of 2008 spread from Wall Street to every corner of the economy.

Further, his terrible advice and lack of insight is in large part the reason we see so little progress being made today — the lack of economic growth, the concentrated bank power, the still dangerous financial system and of course, the sub par job creation.

I will always blame Larry for the way he damaged my presidency. To anyone who to seek his guidance and counsel in the future, please don't make the same naive errors I did.
Will Yellen Be Any Better?

The criticism of Summers is justified, but will Yellen be any better?

I suggest the answer is a resounding no. She is more dovish than Bernanke, and that is saying quite a lot.

Let's compare ...

Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee; Does Janet Yellen Have What It Takes?

In Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee; Does Janet Yellen Have What It Takes? I stated ...
The Detractors Win

The detractors win both sides. Neither Yellen nor Summers is qualified. In fact, there is not a single person who would take the job that is qualified. There should not be a Fed at all.

The idea that a group of economic wonks can sit down and micromanage the economy to health is preposterous. Central bank clowns have proven time and time again they have no idea what the interest rate should be.

A massive bubble in dotcom stocks followed by a massive bubble in housing is proof enough. And this Fed on which Yellen sits has triggered asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and she cannot even see it.

Crisis Management Needed

Curiously, lots of analysis suggest we do not need Larry Summers because there is not going to be another crisis.

Rest assured there will be another crisis, and much sooner than most think. But that does not make Summers qualified. His role is to help create crises, not stop them.

Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee

The only candidate that makes sense is the candidate who will set a target date to end the Fed. Unfortunately, no such candidate is on the short list.



The choice is between Tweedle-Dee who rates to slosh money around even more than Bernanke in a futile effort to create jobs, and Tweedle-Dum who will do whatever Wall Street wants.

Practically speaking, is there really a difference?
Yellen 100% Assured to Make a Mess

Yellen is 100% assured to make a mess of things. So would Summers. But Summers has one thing over Yellen: He is smart enough to not want the job.

I might point out there was some small chance that Summers would be more fiscally responsible than Yellen. We will never know because "Yellen it is".

Market Response

The market loves the news (at least right now).

S&P futures are up 18 points (1% on the news).

Gold is up $21 to $1330.

Things might get interesting in a hurry.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

8,500 Sq Ft Home Faces Wrecking Ball to Build 9,095 Sq Ft Home; 22,000 Sq Ft House Next on Tear-Down List

Posted: 15 Sep 2013 11:35 AM PDT

When you have more money than you know what to do with, you tear down your 8,500 square foot home to build a slightly larger 9,095 square foot home.

The Star Tribune notes $10M house ready for wrecker.

Here is an image.



The house is damn ugly, at least in my opinion.

Citizens want to save the house. Why? And what site would be big enough to take it?

Saving the house is ridiculous, but so was building it in the first place, unless of course you have more money than you know what to do with.

"Teardown of All Teardowns"

Back in June, the above house was billed as "the teardown of all teardowns in the Twin Cities". It's not even close if this next wonder meets the fate I expect.

Also courtesy of the Star Tribune, meet the House that Jimmy Jam Built.



One of the most famous houses on Lake Minnetonka, a 22,000-square-foot mansion built by the record producer who made Janet Jackson famous, has fallen into foreclosure and the bank is looking for a buyer who will either spiff it up or tear it down.

The house features a master suite with its own wing of offices and a 12-car garage. Gee who wouldn't want that?

History

  • Built by Jimmy Jan in 1991
  • Listed for $11 million in June 2005
  • Sold for $7 million
  • Foreclosed
  • Owned by JPMorgan Chase
  • Torn Down???


Incredible. But this is what happens when Fed policies benefit the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.

For further discussion, please see ...

Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions

Reader Asks Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expense of Everyone Else)
 
Near-Record 20% of Americans Struggle to Afford Food and Basic Necessities; Who's to Blame?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : What if surfing was your job?

 

What if surfing was your job?

Same waves, different day.

The risk of skin cancer. The falling. Sand in your socks. The people hassling you for your spot on the wave. The pressure to do more sets. The other guys at the beach who don't appreciate your style. The drudgery of doing it again tomorrow, when the weather sucks. And then every day, from now on, never ceasing.

Where would you go on vacation?

Your drudgery is another person's delight. It's only a job if you treat it that way. The privilege to do our work, to be in control of the promises we make and the things we build, is something worth cherishing.

       

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sâmbătă, 14 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Software Robots Eliminate 94.7% of Jobs Needed for Space Launches

Posted: 14 Sep 2013 06:20 PM PDT

It used to take 150 to do a space launch. Now it takes 8 thanks to artificial intelligence at the launch site. That is a 94.7% reduction in the number of jobs.

The BBC reports Japan launches 'affordable' Epsilon space rocket
Japan has launched the first in a new generation of space rockets, hoping the design will make missions more affordable.

The Epsilon rocket is about half the size of Japan's previous generation of space vehicles, and uses artificial intelligence to perform safety checks.

Japan's space agency Jaxa says the Epsilon cost $37m (£23m) to develop, half the cost of its predecessor.

Jaxa said the Epsilon was not only cheaper to produce, but also cheaper to launch than the M-5.

Because of its artificial intelligence, the new rocket needs only eight people at the launch site, compared with 150 people for earlier launches.

Japan's other recent space innovations included sending a talking robot to the International Space Station.
If it can be automated, it will. I am wondering "what cannot be automated?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Want to Get on the Disability Gravy Train? There's an App For That!

Posted: 14 Sep 2013 01:48 PM PDT

In response to several recent posts on disability fraud, I received several interesting emails from readers.

Reader Ervin writes ....
Hi Mish,

I have a niece and nephew in their early thirties. Both are perfectly healthy. They have a son with a slight learning disability. The mom got him on disability and then applied for funds to take care of him and got it. Her husband, an Afghanistan vet in supply never saw a moment's action. He worked at a desk. When he came home he applied for disability claiming Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome and got on disability. The wife then applied for money to take care of him. She got it. They are also on a long list of other entitlements like welfare.

They bought a new house a little over a year ago and a month ago they both went out and bought two brand new cars! She actually brags about playing the system.

I have no doubt there are hundreds of thousands or millions doing the same thing. Needless to say it boils my blood.

Ervin
There's an App For That!

Want on the disability gravy train? Several readers said to check out Disability Over 50.
We could help you get your benefits approved! Get your FREE, no-obligation evaluation now.

All free evaluations are performed by an experienced social security disability advocate or attorney.
Since when do lawyers do anything for free? Someone has to pay. So who is it?

I wanted to call them, but there is no number, just online forms, then they call you.

Possibly states pay them to get you off welfare and on to disability, or possibly you pay them something if they succeed in getting you on disability.

Either way, there is no one acting on behalf of the taxpayer, to stop fraud.

Incentive For Fraud

I noted in detail how fraud works and why in States Have an Incentive to Promote (Not Stop) Disability Fraud; So How Much Fraud Is There?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekly Address: Pursuing a Diplomatic Solution in Syria

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Pursuing a Diplomatic Solution in Syria

President Obama follows up on his speech to the nation on Tuesday and describes the possibility for a diplomatic solution in Syria, partially because of the credible threat of U.S. military force.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Learn more about President Obama's response to Syria here.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 
 
  Top Stories

Syria: On Tuesday, the President traveled to the Capitol to meet with the Senate Democratic Caucus and the Senate Republican Conference to discuss the situation in Syria.

A little after 9:00 PM that night, President Obama addressed the nation on the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons.

America is not the world’s policeman.  Terrible things happen across the globe, and it is beyond our means to right every wrong.  But when, with modest effort and risk, we can stop children from being gassed to death, and thereby make our own children safer over the long run, I believe we should act.  That’s what makes America different.  That’s what makes us exceptional.  With humility, but with resolve, let us never lose sight of that essential truth. 

During his address, he explained his reasons behind calling for a military strike, laid out his reasons for asking Congress to authorize the use of force, and described how the threat of U.S. action has created the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough. See the President’s remarks on Syria here.

Remembering September 11th: On Wednesday, the First and Second Families honored those who lost their lives on September 11, 2001. At 8:46 AM, President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Biden and Dr. Jill Biden were joined by White House staff to observe a moment of silence on the South Lawn—marking the moment the first plane hit the World Trade Center twelve years ago.

The President then traveled to the Pentagon Memorial for the September 11th Observance ceremony, where he laid a wreath at the Zero Age Line and observed a moment of silence for the 184 victims of the attack at the Pentagon. “They left this Earth. They slipped from our grasp.  But it was written, ‘What the heart has once owned and had, it shall never lose,’” the President said. Read the President’s full remarks here.

President Obama then volunteered at Food & Friends, a D.C. service organization that provides meals to people with serious illnesses, to commemorate the September 11th National Day of Service and Remembrance.

Meanwhile, First Lady Michelle Obama visited the USO Warrior and Family Center and the National Intrepid Center of Excellence (NICoE) at Fort Belvoir, VA. The First Lady started her visit crafting with military children before touring the NICoE and meeting with recovering military personnel.

Later that evening, Vice President Joe Biden and Dr. Jill Biden hosted a BBQ at their home to honor Wounded Warriors and their families.

Drink More Water: The First Lady traveled to Watertown, WI to launch a nationwide effort to encourage Americans to drink more water. “Drink just one more glass of water a day and you can make a real difference for your health, for your energy, and the way that you feel,” she said.

Meeting with the Cabinet: On Thursday, President Obama met with his Cabinet for the third time this year. They discussed steps to improve education, how to put people back to work, along with other issues going on with the government. Check out his full remarks here.

 

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Seth's Blog : The magic of a spec

 

The magic of a spec

“If I build this, will it delight you?”

Time spent building a spec that gets a ‘yes’ to this question is always time well spent. The spec describes what victory feels like, not necessarily every element of what's to be built.

A spec is an agreement before the agreement, it moves the difficult job of getting in sync with your client from the end of the process to the beginning.

Creatives of every stripe are so happy to get the assignment, so eager to get to work that we often forget to agree on what we’re setting out to do in the first place. It's fun to nod your head and say, "I understand," but even something as simple as cooking dinner deserves a few more moments of interaction before the knives are sharpened and the oven is turned on.

“I’ll know it when I see it,” is reserved for crown princes, government agencies and well-funded startups. People who can afford to do it twice. Everyone else should use a spec.

I’m not suggesting that there’s no room for exploratory work. Of course there is. But even exploratory work deserves a spec. Don’t tell me the answers in advance, but I certainly want to know the questions.

Writing a spec is a kind of mind reading, which is why it’s so difficult. One half of the partnership has to take the time to not only specifically and precisely write down what’s expected and what the measurements and boundaries are, but then must do the challenging and risky work of engaging with the other half of the team to agree on that spec. Disagreements here are cheap, disagreements later cost a fortune.

The fear, of course, is that the spec will end the project, that without a lot of sunk costs on the table, a spec alone is too easy to renege on. In my experience, the most successful freelancers are also the most successful spec writers. Yes, there's some risk in clearly and vividly making your promises while the client/partner/boss still has time to back out. But professionals take that risk every day.

I have no doubt that one could have boiled down the spec for the Taj Mahal to, “a big white marble house” but somehow, I don’t think it would have ended as well.

       

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vineri, 13 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Political Poker in Germany; Grand Coalition Possibilities Increase

Posted: 13 Sep 2013 07:06 PM PDT

On several occasions I stated there would not be a "grand coalition" following the next Germany election.

The "grand coalition" is defined as a Merkel's CDU/CSU party forming an alliance with the opposition SPD party.

The reason I came to that conclusions for five reasons.

  1. The leader of SPD ruled out a grand coalition
  2. The eurosceptic AfD party was (and still is) likely to make parliament
  3. There is a chance SPD + Greens + the Far Left (Die Linke) could put together an unstable majority
  4. CDU/CSU + AfD (with or without FDP) could form a stable coalition
  5. Even if the grand coalition thesis had the highest probability, the odds were still under 50%


Odds Change

I am not changing my prediction, but I am changing the odds.

When the data changes, you have to reconsider. And the data changed. SPD leader Peer Steinbrück has changed his mind about entering a grand coalition.

Via unmodified choppy Google-Translate from Der Spiegel, please consider Discussions about possible grand coalition: Steinbrueck rises leadership.
The goal of Peer Steinbrueck choice is clear: The SPD's top candidate wants after the election on 22 September chancellor of a red-green coalition will. Should there not be enough for it, he has a cabinet post in a grand coalition with the CDU have always excluded. Nevertheless Steinbrueck wants to be in the event of an election defeat SPD negotiator in talks with the Union.

"I'll stay in the driver's seat after the election," the challenger Angela Merkel said after SPIEGEL ONLINE information on recently familiar. Even if it is not enough for red-green, wants Steinbrueck the possible coalition negotiations with the CDU and CSU say in authoritative.
Political Poker

Was Steinbrück lying then, or now? Or both? Is this a game to win votes? Or a real change of heart? Or no change of heart, just a lie the entire time?

Quite frankly, I do not know. What I do know is that, in general, politicians will lie cheat and steal to stay in power.

Should the opportunity present itself, would Steinbrück enter a coalition with Die Linke even though he said he wouldn't?

Why not? He said he would not enter one with CDU/CSU and changed his mind. Might not he do so again? Might this all be a game of political poker?

Perhaps Steinbrück is angling for a small CDU/CSU turnout – hoping all the SPD voters show up.

Regardless, there is some chance Steinbrück really did change his mind. And if so, the odds just shifted.

How much I do not know.

For now, I am still sticking with "no grand coalition", even though the odds of a "grand coalition" just got better, perhaps on a political bluff.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Men in Black Return to Spain; ECB Complains of Too Much Leeway; Alarm Bells Ring "More Tax Hikes Coming"

Posted: 13 Sep 2013 01:17 PM PDT

Men in Black Return

Via translation, La Vanguardia reports Men in Black Will Examine Bank Bailout on Monday
A mission of experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will arrive in Madrid on 16 September to discuss with government and private sector rescue progress and Spanish banking sector reform, reported a spokeswoman for the international institution.

The IMF and inspectors from the European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB) will investigate if Spain meets the conditions required by the Eurogroup for the bank bailout and to examine the situation of the banks.

The expert mission of the institution headed by Christine Lagarde expects to publish its preliminary conclusions about the 30th of September, while the publication of the final report could take place in early November.
ECB Complains of Too Much Leeway to Spain, Portugal

Via translation, El Confidencial reports Brussels Gives Too Much Leeway to Spain and Portugal
The European Central Bank (ECB) today launches a critique of the European Commission for being too lax in their setting requirements for Spain and Portugal. As a result of this laxity, doubt that Spain can meet this year's public deficit limit imposed Brussels (6.5% of GDP this year), despite the improvement seen in the first half of the year, as some fiscal consolidation measures will be relaxed in the latter part of the year.

"In several cases, the decrease in average annual structural adjustment required is substantial. For some countries (particularly Portugal and Spain), including cumulative structural adjustment effort has been reduced future the latest recommendations of the EDP (Excessive Deficit Procedure) This could intensify the risks to the sustainability of public finances "are the literal words of the monetary authority in its September monthly bulletin.

"at the end of June 2013, the general government debt stood at around 90% of GDP per year [the highest figure of History], up from 84% at the end of 2012"
Alarm Bells Ring "More Tax Hikes Coming"

ECB complaints of laxity, coupled with missed budget targets means one thing... more tax hikes are on the way.

Via translation, El Economista reports alarm bells ring for tax increases to meet deficit targets.
Data through July triggered an alarm in the government and international agencies, especially the downturn in revenue due to the contraction of social contributions and income tax, which will force Treasury to increase the tax burden to meet the revised deficit target of 6.5% of GDP in 2013 committed to Brussels.

Given this situation the government has already prepared a package of tax increases for 2014 that would help meet the deficit of 5.8 percent committed for next year. A VAT increase would raise health additional 1 billion euros and a 21% VAT tax on notaries would raise 100 million more.

Authgorities also ponder more  "green taxes" on businesses.
Tax hikes will doom whatever slim chance Spain had for an economic recovery (which was not much chance in the first place).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

India Housing Bubble Bursts; Panic Coming Next

Posted: 13 Sep 2013 11:17 AM PDT

On August 1, in India Housing Bubble Still Expanding I posted a series of charts by Deepak Shenoy, an economic blogger at Capital Mind in India.

Those charts showed the bubble in India was alive and growing. Here is one of the charts and a small bit of commentary ....
As of March 2013, Prices have more than doubled since 2009. The All-India Index is at 211, from 100 in March 2009.



The bubble is intact.

But is the bubble bursting? QoQ growth is the second lowest since the data has been recorded – an all India QoQ growth level of 2.1% (versus 6.4% last quarter).

Credit will be constrained from July onwards, so it is quite likely that price growth is hit. Already, rental prices have flattened or reduced, and commercial rents and prices are down (speaking of the June quarter, from anecdotal information). A credit crunch could well cause developer defaults, and then prices will truly fall. For now, the bubble is well and truly visible.
The Bubble Bursts

On Wednesday, the New York Times reported A Housing Slump in India
The Orbit Grand, a block-size complex designed to have at least 26 floors of elegant apartments, an extensive array of ground-floor stores and abundant parking for the chauffeured cars of residents and shoppers, was supposed to be a diadem of India's real estate market.

Now it is turning into a symbol of the slumping fortunes of property developers and owners in a once-promising emerging economy. Construction of the Orbit Grand has almost completely stalled at the 10th floor, the tower crane at the site seldom moves and the builder has defaulted on its loan.

"There's no real work going on right now. There's just a minimum number of workers coming in to do small things," said Alam Sheikh, an electrician who is one of just 14 builders left at the site.

The volume of real estate transactions has slumped in India as developers have refused to offer discounts for fear of starting a market rout.

"If they drop prices, investors will panic and it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy," causing further declines in prices, said Siddharth Yog, a co-founder and managing partner of the Xander Group, a large international real estate investment firm started in 2005. That was the year India began allowing foreign institutional investors into its real estate market.

But with sellers refusing to cut prices, many potential buyers are losing interest. 
So...

Work stops, builders default, condo complexes stall in mid-air, transaction volumes plunge, buyers lose interest, and sellers (for now) refuse to cut prices out of fear of causing panic.

Have we seen this picture before? Yes indeed.

It was supposed to be "different in India", just like it was supposed to be different in Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, etc., etc.

India Economy in Serious Trouble

In September all hell broke loose. Here are some links.



Those links were from early September.

On August 18, I noted Official Denials Run Rampant in India; "No Question" of Economic Crisis; Rupee Plunges to Record Low; Gold Coin Imports Banned

Panic Coming Up

Builders refuse to offer discounts for fear of starting a market rout, causing investors to panic in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Yet, it's far too late to stop panic.

Moreover, the faster and steeper the panic, the better. Prices need to plunge to reasonable levels, and attempts to halt that process are counterproductive.

Meanwhile, I will see if I can get a housing update from  Deepak. The next few months may look interesting. Bear in mind, history suggests that transaction volumes will completely dry up, before the real plunge in price occurs. That may take another month or two of no demand from buyers.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Where are the Jobs? Who Has Them? Who's Likely to Get Them?

Posted: 12 Sep 2013 11:39 PM PDT

Inquiring minds who notice the alleged drop in the unemployment are asking "Where the hell are the jobs?"

It's a good question. And I have details, by demographic age group, from reader Tim Wallace.

click on any chart for sharper image

Change in Number of Jobs Since 2007



Civilian Non-Institutional Population by Age Group



Work Force by Age Group



Number Employed by Age Group



Percent of Population Group in Work Force



Percentage in Age Group Employed



Tim Wallace writes ...
Hello Mish

In the 16-19 age group, the population has shrunk by 239,000, while the number of jobs in this age group has shrunk by 1,415,000!

In the 20-24 age group, the population has grown by 1,625,000 while the number of jobs has shrunk by 362,000. So, for the under 25 age group we have 1,777,000 less jobs with 1,386,000 more people.

In the 25 to 54 age group that everyone focuses on, we see a loss in population of 1,382,000 people since August of 2007, but an even greater loss in jobs - 5,940,000!

Since we know that the population has grown by over 13,000,000 since 2007 yet we have 1.8 million less jobs since then, what does this tell us?

Jobs were lost in every age bracket but the 55+ group, with 16-19 dropping 22.6%, 20-24 falling 2.6%, 25-54 going down 5.9% and 55+ going up 22.7%.

The second graph shows the Civilian Non-institutional Population by age - note the basic flat lines on all but 55+. The graph shows the Work Force by age - note once again only 55+ goes up.

The fourth graph shows the number employed by age group. Note that it's only the 55+ age group that has done anything in the current "Recovery". The other groups are all down from 2007, with 16-19 devastated. Just go in Walmart and McDonald's and you will see it first hand - senior citizen workers abound.

The fifth graph shows the percentage of an age group that is also in the work force. Note the plunges in every age group except 55+.

The last graph shows the percentage of the age group employed. It follows the exact trend of the fifth, as it must.

So, if you are in sales and marketing you should be focusing your products on the 55+ age group, they are the ones earning the cash. Forget the teenagers, they are contributing little, and their parents are sliding fast! The millennials aged 20-24 hope those 55+ will retire but the trends do not look promising.

As typical with my charts, data is not adjusted for seasonality. Instead, I compare the same month every year to prior years.

Tim
Structural Demographics Poor

Flashback May 22, 2008: In Demographics Of Jobless Claims I wrote ...
Structural demographic effects imply that prospects in the full-time labor market will be poor for those over age 50-55 and workers under age 30.

Teen and college-age employment could suffer a great deal from (1) a dramatic slowdown in discretionary spending and (2) part-time Boomer reentrants into the low-paying service sector; workers who will be competing with younger workers.

Ironically, older part-time workers remaining in or reentering the labor force will be cheaper to hire in many cases than younger workers. The reason is Boomers 65 and older will be covered by Medicare (as long as it lasts) and will not require as many benefits as will younger workers, especially those with families.

In effect, Boomers will be competing with their children and grandchildren for jobs that in many cases do not pay living wages.
So, where are the jobs?

They went exactly where I said they would: Boomers now compete with their children and grandchildren for jobs that do not pay living wages.

I certainly did not envision the "Obamacare effect" in 2008, but the trend was already set in stone due to rising health-care costs and the age 65 kick-in of Medicare.

Obamacare enhanced the trend I had already expected.

Who is to Blame?

Don't blame corporations or minimum wage laws. Blame the Fed, central bankers, fractional reserve lending, and Congressional silliness including Obamacare.

For further discussion, please see ...

Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions

Reader Asks Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expense of Everyone Else)
 
Near-Record 20% of Americans Struggle to Afford Food and Basic Necessities; Who's to Blame?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com