duminică, 10 noiembrie 2013

Seth's Blog : The first lie...

 

The first lie...

is that you're going to need far more talent than you were born with.

The second lie is that the people who are leading in the new connection economy got there because they have something you don't.

The third lie is that you have to be chosen.

The fourth lie is that we're not afraid.

We're afraid.

Afraid to lead, to make a ruckus, to convene. Afraid to be vulnerable, to be called out, to be seen as a fraud.

The connection economy isn't based on steel or rails or buildings. It's built on trust and hope and passion.

The future belongs to those that care and those that believe.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Three California Programmers Create Alternative Healthcare Website; Mish Checks It Out

Posted: 09 Nov 2013 04:15 PM PST

CBS Evening News reports S.F. programmers build alternative to HealthCare.Gov Website
On Friday, President Obama had this to say about problems with the Obamcare website during a speech in New Orleans: "I promise you, nobody's been more frustrated. I wanted to go in and fix it myself, but I don't write code."

But plenty of programmers do write code. And three of them have created their own website that addresses some of the most annoying problems with HealthCare.gov.

In a San Francisco office shared with other tech start-ups, three 20-year-olds saw HealthCare.gov as a challenge.

With a few late nights, Ning Liang, George Kalogeropoulos and Michael Wasser built "thehealthsherpa.com," a two-week-old website that solves one of the biggest problems with the government's site.

"They got it completely backwards in terms of what people want up front," said Liang. He added: "They want prices and benefits, so that they could make the decision."

Liang showed CBS News how it worked. "You come to our website and you put in your zip code -- in this case a California zip code. You hit 'find plans,' and you immediately see the exchange plans that are available for that zip code."
The CBS video interview is interesting.



Click on link at the top if video does not play.

Thanks to reader "Rick" for the link.

Not Quite Ready

I entered my zipcode, 60012,  and requested all plans for me alone - over 50, and no plans came up. I tried again with "you and spouse" and again no plans came up. Either they do not have all zipcodes entered or there are some other issues.

In my post Tips on Navigating Obamacare Costs on HealthCare.Gov - My Personal Experience - Obamashock! I noted there were 60 plans for McHenry County.

Perhaps they need to add "county" for some states.

Regardless, the website has a better interface and with a few bugs fixed, no one will need Healthcare.Gov, a website that cost taxpayers something on the order of $300 million.

I emailed the website developers and will post an update when I hear back. 

As is typical with government projects, it seems no one really knows for sure what the healthcare.gov costs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

ECB Caught Using Fictional Rating System for Italian Bonds Used as Collateral for Loans

Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:26 AM PST

Spiegel online has an article on the non-transparent as well as fictional way the ECB treats Stripped Bonds (Strips) of Italian Banks handed over to ECB as collateral for loans.

Currently ECB rates various Italian Strips with an "A" rating, though no rating agency rates Italian bonds, let alone Strips, with an A.

ECB claims it is correct, because a tiny rating agency, DBRS, still rates Italian bonds with an A. However, DBRS said to Spiegel upon being questioned, that this particular rating was not to be applied to Strips.

Two hours later DBRS sent an email to Spiegel, claiming that they (Spiegel) must not use this information in public.

Via Google Translate from Der Spiegel, with thanks to reader Bernd, please consider The strange standards of the ECB
When it comes to the valuation of bonds, the ECB wants to be independent and transparent. But that manages to SPIEGEL ONLINE information, not always. In many Italian government securities, the central bank based on a credit rating that is not according to the rating agency for these bonds.

According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the European Central Bank (ECB) has very unusual standards when it comes to the valuation of government bonds, on deposit as collateral for loans. Specifically, it's about 116 Italian government bonds without coupon interest rate, known as stripped bonds or short strips. They are currently valued by the ECB and the Italian national central bank with a grade of "A" - although rating agencies actually do not assign that grade.

By assigning an "A" rating, the ECB favors those banks that submit such papers as collateral when they borrow money from the central bank. This especially favors Italian financial institutions.

In the evaluation of collateral, the ECB relies on the scores of the four rating agencies. While large companies S & P, Moody's and Fitch Italy have credit already on a "B" status downgraded, only the smaller agency DBRS, caries the "A" rating of 116 Italian Strips bonds.

The problem: The agency itself has told SPIEGEL ONLINE stated that their ratings are not applicable for Strips.

Stripped bonds are securities of a special kind: The offshoot of fixed rate bonds are sold to pay the revenue generated interest due to other securities. They also have a so-called zero coupon: The yield on these strips with some long term will only be paid when due, until then sees the investors in such securities no money. The profit of the investor resulting from the difference between the purchase price and the redemption at maturity of the bond. It is an investment that requires a lot of trust in the buyer's future solvency of the seller. In this case, the confidence of future Italian governments apply. And this must be long: 56 of these strips have remaining maturities of more than ten years, 30 of which are not paid 20 for years, the last three not until 2041.

Fitch rates 107 of the strips as 'B'. The classification used by the ECB should not be used. It's that simple.

Suddenly, DBRS Is Silent

Just three hours after the ECB's reply to the request by SPIEGEL ONLINE, another e-mail came from DBRS: Statements to SPIEGEL ONLINE should not be made public and DBRS would longer comment on this matter.

That's what you call an emergency brake.
Emergency Brake

More than a little pressure on DBRS by ECB president Mario Draghi, coupled with a distinct willingness of the ECB to look the other way? Ya Think? What other sleight-of-hand magic is the ECB making?

I used the word "Fictional" in the title of this post. "Fraudulent" seems more like it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com    

sâmbătă, 9 noiembrie 2013

Honoring America's Veterans

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Honoring America's Veterans

In this week's address, President Obama commemorates Veterans Day Weekend by thanking the brave men and women who have worn this country's uniform. The President says he is proud of their service and will do everything possible to ensure America always has their back and always honors their sacrifice.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 

 
 
  Top Stories

 

VA Serves One Millionth Post-9/11 G.I. Bill Beneficiary: On Friday, the Department of Veterans Affairs joined Dr. Jill Biden to celebrate the Post-9/11 GI Bill benefit and recognize the significant impact it’s had in helping Service members, Veterans and their families get a quality education and good jobs. 

They congratulated the 1 millionth beneficiary of this landmark program, who is a great representative of the Post-9/11 Veteran generation; which has sacrificed so much for our country. This GI Bill program is just one small way our nation can say “thank you” to these men and women for their service.

President Obama Talks Exports in the Big Easy: On Friday, President Obama traveled to the Port of New Orleans -- one of the busiest port complexes in the world and responsible for moving millions of tons of steel, chemicals, fuel, and food every year. The Port also handles, as the President noted, much of the country's coffee: "which means you're responsible for keeping the White House awake at all times."

The President spoke about the importance of investing in our infrastructure -- rebuilding our roads, bridges, and ports -- to create jobs at home, expand trade, and keep American businesses competitive: 

"Right now, exports are one of the brightest spots in our economy. Thanks in part to new trade deals that we signed with countries like Panama and Colombia and South Korea, we now export more goods and services than ever before. And that means jobs right here in the United States of America.

Last year, every $1 billion in exports supports nearly 5,000 jobs, including jobs right here at this port.  So we’re working on new trade deals that will mean more jobs for our workers, and more business for ports like this one.

And, by the way, when I travel around the world, I’m out there selling.  I’ll go anywhere in the world to make sure that ... those products stamped with those words, “Made in America” ... that we can open up those markets and sell them anywhere."

Read his full remarks here.

Shining a Light on our Researchers, Doctors, Nurses, and Caregivers: Earlier this week, the Vice President and Dr. Jill Biden hosted their 2nd Annual Breast Cancer Awareness Reception at the Naval Observatory. They were joined by survivors, caregivers, families, doctors, researchers, and advocates who have all been touched by breast cancer.

Read Dr. Biden's blog about the event here.

First Lady Michelle Obama Celebrates Diwali at the White House: On Tuesday, First Lady Michelle Obama welcomed guests to the White House for a Diwali celebration. The celebration started with the First Lady surprising local students at a Bollywood dance clinic and trying out some moves herself.

Then the First Lady spoke during a reception in the East Room:

“We’ve celebrated this holiday here at the White House every year since Barack took office. And there’s a reason why we've done that,” she said.

When we say that we want to make the White House the “people’s house,” we mean all people. We mean that we want to honor and embrace all of the many cultures and faith traditions that make us who we are as Americans. And Diwali is very much one of those traditions.

The Employment Situation in October: Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman explains the five key points in Friday's October Employment report, including the fact that businesses have added jobs for 44 consecutive months, with private-sector employment increasing by 7.8 million over that period.

President Obama to Dallas Health Care Volunteers: "Nothing Is Going to Stop Us from Getting This Done." On Wednesday, the President traveled to Dallas, Texas, where he joined canvassers and navigators who are part of the community's most active group of volunteers working to enroll their neighbors in quality, affordable coverage through the Marketplace.

The President personally thanked them for their work, calling out the fact that ultimately, "all the politics, all the chatter sometimes leaves out the fact that the system we had -- the status quo -- just wasn't working for too many people."

"...Now what we’ve got to do is sign up those folks who don’t have health insurance and improve insurance for those who are under-insured, who don’t have very good insurance, and have been subject to the whims of the insurance company. And that’s what this is all about. And that’s the challenge that we’ve got over the next month, three months, six months, next year. And if we get that done -- when we get that done -- then we will have created a stable system in which there’s no reason why people shouldn’t be getting health care in this country."

You can read the President's full remarks here. 

The Time is Now: President Obama Meets with Business Leaders on Immigration Reform: On Tuesday, the President, Vice President and senior Administration officials met at the White House with a group of top U.S. business leaders to discuss the importance of commonsense immigration reform to bolster U.S. economic growth, and improve the climate for business, and job creation. These leaders shared with the President their desire to see our broken immigration system fixed, both because it is the right thing to do, and because it will be good for the U.S. economy.

In addition to the 7.5 million jobs created in the U.S. over the past three and a half years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), over the next two decades, the bipartisan bill that has already passed the Senate would grow the economy by an additional $1.4 trillion, and shrink our deficits by nearly $1 trillion. The Senate bill would modernize our legal immigration system. 

 

 

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Seth's Blog : Your incoming--How do you process what's offered?

 

Your incoming--How do you process what's offered?

Your choice: should you come to that meeting, read those articles or go to this event? Should you have those expensive medical tests, have surgery or hire that consultant?

If someone stands up and shares a big idea, some people might run with it, others might not hear it at all.

If you're eager for change, every bit of information and every event represents an opportunity to learn, to grow and to change for the better. You hear some advice and you listen to it, consider it (possibly reject it), iterate on it and actually do something different in response.

On the other hand, if you're afraid of change or in love with the path you're on or focused obsessively on your GTD list, then incoming represents a distraction and a risk. So you process it with the narrative, "how can this input be used to further what I've already decided to do?" At worst, you ignore it. At best, you use a tiny percentage of it to your advantage.

Going to a brainstorming meeting with that attitude is a recipe for failure. Someone in the  meeting needs to shout, "Put down your spreadsheets and come out with your hands up!"

If you've already decided, if you have an incoming process that involves deflector shields, if you are too busy to do a reset, then the best path is not to take the meeting at all. Don't pay attention to test results and don't look for new learning.

Don't bother accepting new input if you have no interest in using it. (I happen to think that once you're committed to your path, this is in fact a brilliant approach. Halfway up Everest, it makes no sense to have a discussion about climbing K2 instead.)

       

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vineri, 8 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Credit Boom in China Could Trigger Bigger Crisis Than 2008; Three Things China Wants, Eight Things China Needs

Posted: 08 Nov 2013 06:17 PM PST

In case you think all is well with China and the Yuan will soon replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, you may wish to reconsider.

Credit growth in China is expanding at a massive rate on nonviable projects, and that is the only reason China has been able to meet its growth targets.

Marc Faber believes China could spark a bigger crisis than in 2008.
An alarming credit boom in China could trigger a global financial crisis that would make the one in 2008 look mild by comparison, says old gloomy eyes, Marc Faber.

"If I am telling you that we had a credit crisis in 2008 because we had too much credit in the economy, then there is that much more credit as a percentage of the economy now," the author of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told CNBC late Thursday. "So we are in a worse position than we were back then."

China, in particular, has seen credit as a percentage of the economy jump 50% in the last four and a half years, said Faber, the "fastest credit growth you can image in the whole of Asia."

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank strategist John-Paul Smith told clients on Wednesday that China's growth model continues to be based on "ever-expanding debt, which leaves the country and financial markets very vulnerable to any potential loss of from investors and lenders."

It Can't Be Done

I have been preaching a similar message as Faber for years, most recently on November 6, in It Can't Be Done.

Three Things China Wants

  1. 7.2% growth
  2. No rise in unemployment
  3. Strengthening of the ruling party.

Eight Things China Needs To Do

  1. Cleanup its banking sector
  2. Curtail rampant credit growth
  3. Privatize State-Owned-Enterprises (SOEs)
  4. Rein in monetary growth
  5. Eliminate dependence on nonviable infrastructure projects as a means of growth
  6. Writeoff bad debts
  7. Float the renmimbi (yuan)
  8. Undertake massive economic and political reforms

What China wants is impossible. And the longer China waits to do what needs to be done, the bigger the eventual crisis.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com    

Expect Another Leap in Healthcare Costs; New Obamashock Rules: Obamacare Expanded to Cover Mental Health and Addiction

Posted: 08 Nov 2013 12:47 PM PST

If you are already stunned by rising Obamashock! healthcare costs, you can expect still more shocks thanks to new rules and expanded coverage for mental health and addiction programs.

A few snips from the New York Times article Rules to Require Equal Coverage for Mental Ills will explain.
The Obama administration on Friday will complete a generation-long effort to require insurers to cover care for mental health and addiction just like physical illnesses when it issues long-awaited regulations defining parity in benefits and treatment.

The rules, which will apply to almost all forms of insurance, will have far-reaching consequences for many Americans. In the White House, the regulations are also seen as critical to President Obama's program for curbing gun violence by addressing an issue on which there is bipartisan agreement: Making treatment more available to those with mental illness could reduce killings, including mass murders.

According to administration officials, the rule would ensure that health plans' co-payments, deductibles and limits on visits to health care providers are not more restrictive or less generous for mental health benefits than for medical and surgical benefits. Significantly, the regulations would clarify how parity applies to residential treatments and outpatient services, where much of the care for people with addictions or mental illnesses occurs.

Insurance companies have raised concerns about the expense involved in paying for the lengthy and intensive courses of treatment that the final regulations address. But experts have said the rules are not expected to significantly add to the cost of coverage because so few patients require these levels of care.

Former Representative Patrick J. Kennedy of Rhode Island, a co-sponsor of the 2008 law, said the rules could particularly help veterans. "No one stands to gain more from true parity than the men and women who have served our country and now need treatment for the invisible wounds they have brought home from Iraq and Afghanistan," he said.

State insurance commissioners will apparently have the primary responsibility for seeing that commercial insurers comply with the parity standards. They already have their hands full, however, enforcing new insurance market rules, and in some states insurance regulators are considered close to the industry.

"We need enforcement," Mr. Kennedy said in an interview. "The notion of delegating this to the states, which are looking to the federal government for direction, is problematic." 
Don't Worry "Experts" Say Costs Won't Rise "Significantly"

Note the slant by the NYT.

  • People want to curb gun violence and this will do it. 
  • It will help veterans. 
  • It won't cost much.

Supposedly costs won't rise much because few people demand mental health services. Well, watch what happens when you mandate expanded "free" services.

And if by some amazing miracle additional free services do not increase costs, it's important to note that a small percentage of people are responsible for huge portions of overall costs.

Cumulative Distribution of Personal Healthcare Spending



Facts and Figures

  • Top 1% Spend Over 20% of Total Costs
  • Top 5% Spend About 50% of Total Costs

Those numbers are from a 2012 study on the Concentration of Healthcare Spending by the National Institute for Health Care Management (NIHCM).

Obamashock! Apology

Yesterday, the president made a quasi-apology for the holes and gaps in the law.



Link if video does not play: Exclusive: Obama personally apologizes for Americans losing health coverage

After the Non-Apology

CNN discuses Obamacare: After Obama's apology, talk of solutions and -- still -- the website
As the president expressed regret in an exclusive interview with NBC News on Thursday, there already were plans being developed in Congress to address the matter as well as steps the administration might take to resolve the issue without reopening the politically charged healthcare law legislatively.

Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said there is no specific plan at the moment when asked in Atlanta on Friday what the administration was considering.

One priority, she said, is to identify those customers as well as approaches for solutions.

"But there is no specific option right now," she said.
More on Obamashock!

My Personal Experience - Obamashock!

More Obamashock! Glitches Hit Paper, Phone Applications; Obamacare Glitch Great Quotes

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Establishment Survey: +204K Jobs, Household Survey: -735K Jobs; How Federal Layoffs Distorted the Picture

Posted: 08 Nov 2013 10:01 AM PST

Initial Reaction

The already wide discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey took a wild leap today.

The establishment survey showed a gain of 204,000 jobs but the household survey showed a drop in employment of -735,000. However, the BLS states that on unadjusted basis 448,000 of the drop in employment was due to temporary federal layoffs during the budget negotiations.

Because of the way the BLS calculates overall numbers, one cannot subtract the seasonally unadjusted number of -448,000 from the reported seasonally adjusted number of -735,000 and arrive at any kind of meaningful number.

Important Note: I will go through my normal calculations, but they are very distorted by the temporary layoffs.

How Federal Layoffs Distorted the Picture

The BLS reports "Estimates of the unemployed by reason, such as temporary layoff and job leavers, do not sum to the official seasonally adjusted measure of total unemployed because they are independently seasonally adjusted. Household survey data for federal workers are available only on a not seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, over-the-month changes in federal worker data series cannot be compared with seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in total employed and unemployed."

From the Commissioner's Statement
Some federal workers who were not at work during the entire reference week in October were not classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.

Our review of the data indicates that most of these workers should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. Such a misclassification is an example of nonsampling error and can occur when respondents misunderstand questions or interviewers record answers incorrectly. According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reassign survey responses.

If the federal workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been slightly, but not substantively, higher than reported.
Revisions

This was the fourth straight month of revisions to the establishment survey. The first two revisions were significantly lower. Last month, the revision was slightly higher and I commented "Perhaps the BLS has numbers they are happy with now." So much for that idea. Today, the BLS reports "August revised up by 45,000 (from +193,000 to +238,000), and the employment change for September revised up by 15,000 (from +148,000 to +163,000).

The unemployment rate rose 0.1 to 7.3% (but according to the BLS it should have been higher due to estimated nonsampling error as noted in the commissioner's statement above).

It's the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, not the establishment survey. So let's take a look at the factors.

Explaining the Unemployment Rate

  • Unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points
  • Employment fell by 735,000
  • Those in the labor force fell by 720,000
  • The civilian population rose by 213,000.
  • The Participation Rate (The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) fell to 62.8%, smashing the previous low (tied last month) of 63.2% dating back to 1979.

Employment fell more than the labor force, so the unemployment rate rose.

October BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Payrolls +204,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Employment -735,000 - Household Survey
  • US Unemployment +17,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work +124,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work -181,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate +0.1 to 7.3% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment +0.2 to 13.8% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Labor Force -720,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force +932,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate -0.4 at 62.8 - Household Survey


Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 3,134,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by a mere 240,000 (an average of 20,000 a month)
  • In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,248,000 to 11,272,000 (a drop of 976,000)
  • Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 36.1%, a decrease of 0.8 from last month.
  • The mean duration of unemployment is 36.1 weeks, a decline of 0.8.
  • Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
  • 8,050,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,286,000. This is a volatile series.


October 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) October 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Employment History Since January 2009



click on chart for sharper image

Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees remained at 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.02 to $20.26. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.02 to $20.04.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013



Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.3%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 13.8%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
  5. Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 9%. In addition, there are 8,050,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.

Moreover, as noted above, this month's numbers are extremely distorted due to temporary layoffs. Next month we will have a better understanding of various factors including the unemployment rate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

West Wing Week: "Casual, With a Raffish Look"

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

West Wing Week: "Casual, With a Raffish Look"

This week, the President worked to help consumers learn about and enroll in quality, affordable health insurance plans through the Marketplaces, welcomed Iraq's Prime Minister, hosted the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks, and kicked off the newly re-instated White House Tours with a surprise drop-by.

Click here to watch this week's West Wing Week:

West Wing Week 11/08/13 or, "Casual, With a Raffish Look"

 

 

  Top Stories


The Employment Situation in October

Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman explains the five key points on Today’s October Employment report including the fact that businesses have added jobs for 44 consecutive months, with private sector employment increasing by 7.8 million over that period.

READ MORE

Shining a Light on our Researchers, Doctors, Nurses, and Caregivers

Dr. Biden discusses hosting the 2nd Annual Breast Cancer Awareness Reception with Vice President Biden and the survivors, caregivers, families, doctors, researchers, and advocates who have all been touched by breast cancer that they were joined by.

READ MORE

Investing in the Health of our Communities

Last week, Cecilia Muñoz, Director of the Domestic Policy Council, had the opportunity to travel back to her home state of Michigan, where she visited a local Community Health Center and participated in an Affordable Care Act enrollment event put on by State Representative Rashida Tlaib.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

9:05 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

9:20 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews

11:45 AM: The President arrives in New Orleans, Louisiana

12:15 PM: The President tours the Port of New Orleans

1:00 PM: The Vice President attends an event for the DCCC

1:10 PM: The President delivers remarks

2:10 PM: The President departs New Orleans, Louisiana

3:45 PM: The President arrives in Miami, Florida

4:25 PM: The President attends a DNC event

6:20 PM: The President delivers remarks at a DSCC event

7:45 PM: The President delivers remarks at a DSCC event

8:00 PM: The Vice President delivers remarks at the Second Annual Louis L. Redding Benefit and Awards 

 

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