Central Perk

luni, 11 noiembrie 2013

Damn Cool Pics

Very Bad Architect Jobs

Posted: 11 Nov 2013 04:36 PM PST

When architects fail.

The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air Then and Now

Posted: 11 Nov 2013 04:17 PM PST

Stars of "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" then and now.

How to Track the Online ROI of Offline Advertising

Posted: 10 Nov 2013 03:12 PM PST

Posted by GeoffKenyon

While I love online marketing and often times think that is a much better marketing investment than offline marketing and advertising, offline ads are important and add value. While we are going to see budget shift significantly from offline efforts to online campaigns, there is still going to be a ton of money going into offline ads.

Much of the value from offline advertising is actually online and is typically attributed to the direct channel. If an ad gives out a website URL, they almost always send visitors to their homepage. When ads don't give users a website to go to, typically one of the search channels will receive credit for the value created by the ad. The KTM ad below is a prime example of a print ad that will create value, but the value will be attributed to either the search channel or direct channel if the user is already aware of (or simply searches for) the URL for KTM.

As you can see below, in 2012 82% of ad-spend was offline; that is a lot of visitors and conversions that aren't being properly attributed.

This isn't just a problem for companies with big ad budgets. In fact, this is more important for small businesses with smaller budgets because often times these expenses come out of the owner's pockets. Real estate agents are probably the best example of why this is so important. If my friend Hailey is a real estate agent and if she wants to market her self and her properties, she has a lot of options. She could advertise on a big real estate site like Zillow, a niche site, through SEO or PPC, and it's easy for her to track leads from these. It gets harder, though, when she invests in offline efforts like signs, door hangers, print ads, or any other form of offline advertising. Hailey, and almost all real estate agents, are doing their marketing campaigns on a tight budget, so it is critical for real estate agents (and professionals in many other industries) to understand exactly what is producing value and what isn't.

The good news is that it's actually pretty easy to figure out which offline ads are helping you and which ones aren't doing anything.

Create a custom URL for your ads

The first step is to either buy a vanity domain or to create a unique landing page for each offline effort.

Depending on your niche and ad, it can be important to incentivize the user typing in the full URL (and not just stopping once they type in the homepage) if you are not going to use a vanity domain. This can mean offering the user a special promotion or gift. You would want to reinforce the offer with the URL as well, using something like /free-gift or /special-promo.

Set up redirects and campaign parameters

Once you've created your vanity domain or landing page, you'll need to set up a 301 redirect to the page you want visitors to land on (your home page or a specific landing page) AND include Google Analytics campaign parameters (shown below by ?utm=*)

Adding Campaign Tracking Parameters

If you're not super familiar with Google Analytics, this guide is a good starting point. If you need help creating the campaign URL, the Google URL Builder and GA Config are really useful tools. Keep in mind, while there are five different parameters you can use, the following three are required at minimum:

Source â€" This should be the specific source of the ad and referral such as "Seattle Times," "For Sale Sign," "Flier," etc. The source parameter will allow you to assign conversions to a specific source.
Medium â€" The medium is simply the high-level channel that your effort is part of. Some examples of good mediums would be radio, magazine ad, or TV. When you consistently use the medium attribution parameter, over time, you will be able to see what high-level channels produce the best ROI for you.
Campaign name â€" The campaign name should refer to specific campaign you are running. You can use this to pull together ads across mediums and sources that are part of a larger campaign, or you can differentiate between different campaigns within the same source.

Track your ROI

At this point, you've done all the hard work and have everything set up for Google Analytics to be able to track visitors coming to the site from your ads as well as how many people convert in some form. You will be able to find the number of visitors from your ads under the campaigns tab in Google Analytics, and the number of conversions in the Ecommerce, Goals, or Events tab depending on how you are tracking your conversions.

The campaign view in Google Analytics is where you'll monitor the success of your offline campaigns.

With this in place you will be able to better invest your offline marketing budget knowing that the channels and campaigns are going to give you the best online ROI.

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Seth's Blog : The generous skeptic

The generous skeptic

If you've got a big idea, there's no doubt that you will run into skeptics along the way.

Many skeptics are afraid for you, embrace the status quo, and in their twisted but well-intentioned way, will work to persuade you to give up your dream. This sort of skeptic should be ignored, certainly. It doesn't really pay to argue with them, because your impassioned restatement of your view of reality will do little to persuade them that you're not doing something crazy risky.

The other kind of skeptic, though, should be treated totally differently.

The generous skeptic has insight into your field, your strengths and weaknesses. She wants you to succeed, but maybe, just maybe, sees something you don't.

When the generous skeptic speaks up, she's taking a risk. If you respond to her generosity by arguing, by shutting down, by avoiding eye contact or becoming defensive, you've blown it. You've taken a gift and wasted it, and disrespected the gift giver at the same time.

The alternative is to emotionally stand up and sit down on her side of the table. Egg her on. Imagine the world the way she sees it. Take her tactical skepticism and amplify it, pushing it to its logical conclusion. Instead of defending the flickering flame of your idea as if it might soon be extinguished, dump as much of this sort of skepticism on the idea as you can.

Not only are you honoring the generous skeptic when you do this, you're learning how to see the way she sees. Your job isn't to persuade her she's wrong, your job is to learn from this and buttress your project in a way that when it collides with the market, you're ready.

"Tell me more about that," is the useful and productive response, not, "no, you're wrong, you don't understand."

There's always time to ignore this feedback later. Right now, dive into it, with an eager, open mind. It's a gift you're not often offered.

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duminică, 10 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Obamashock! Hits Employees of Sodexo, "World's Largest Quality of Life" Service Company

Posted: 10 Nov 2013 06:44 PM PST

Some employees of Sodexo, the "World's largest quality of life services company" have been hit with a massive case of "Obamashock!" because of the way Obamacare identifies part-time employment.

An email from reader "Mark" will explain.

Hello Mish

I thought you would be interested in another new angle regarding fallout from the ACA.

Yesterday we received a notice of cancellation of our eligibility in the large group health plan through my wife's employer. They state that this is due to the Affordable Care Act.

My wife has worked for Sodexo, USA for about 3 years.Sodexo is a contract food service provider at literally thousands of institutions around the world. Her job is at a small private college in Iowa.

The notice we received states that, "Sodexo has aligned how we define full-time employees eligible for benefits with the Affordable Care Act". As such, she no longer qualifies as a full time employee, and can no longer be part of the benefit plan, as of January 1, 2014.

The new definition is that a full time employee must average 30 hours a week over the past 12 months. The cafeteria at a private college is not open 12 months of the year, and does not operate an average of 30 hours per week over 12 months. It is impossible to attain this number of hours when they are not available.

I am self employed. We will not qualify for any 'exchange subsidies'. She worked this just over minimum wage job solely for access to the health plan.

Now our options seem to be either to pay $19,600.52 per year for the COBRA plan, or $12,636 for an individual family plan with a deductible that is 3 times our current plan.

We are definitely in Obamashock!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Following Path of Japan, Including Similarly Ridiculous Statements

Posted: 10 Nov 2013 07:29 AM PST

Rather than writeoff bad loans at European banks, the ECB has chosen the bury your head in the sand, extend-and-pretend path of Japan.

This is despite the fact the Japanese plan has taken multiple decades without producing meaningful results.

"More Room For Rate Cuts"

For example, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure says "ECB Can Cut Rates Further, Offer Liquidity".

The European Central Bank can trim interest rates further and provide the banking system with liquidity, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said on Saturday after last week's rate cut to a record low.

"We can still cut interest rates if needed, and as we said clearly last Thursday we can provide liquidity to the euro zone financial system if needed to ensure they don't have problems refinancing," he said on France Inter radio.

"All that's possible, but what counts is that the banks transmit the decrease in the cost of refinancing to the economy," he said.

What Good Can Additional Rate Cuts Do?

Let's be realistic. The ECB's lending rate is .25%.

Although the ECB can cut rates 25 more times, 1 basis point at a time, the idea that such a move can produce anything meaningful is ridiculous.

Japan made similar moves multiple times, cutting rates a few basis points at a time. It served no purpose other than to let the Bank of Japan say "we are acting". The BOJ never once added the truth "but it's meaningless".

And now Benoit Coeure makes the same useless statement, also without adding "rate cuts cannot do a damn thing for Europe".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Introducing myself to a new audience (for those who haven't seen my old videos) I just wanted to introduce myself and fill ya in on what what I'm doing to climb out of debt!

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Seth's Blog : The first lie...

The first lie...

is that you're going to need far more talent than you were born with.

The second lie is that the people who are leading in the new connection economy got there because they have something you don't.

The third lie is that you have to be chosen.

The fourth lie is that we're not afraid.

We're afraid.

Afraid to lead, to make a ruckus, to convene. Afraid to be vulnerable, to be called out, to be seen as a fraud.

The connection economy isn't based on steel or rails or buildings. It's built on trust and hope and passion.

The future belongs to those that care and those that believe.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Three California Programmers Create Alternative Healthcare Website; Mish Checks It Out

Posted: 09 Nov 2013 04:15 PM PST

CBS Evening News reports S.F. programmers build alternative to HealthCare.Gov Website

On Friday, President Obama had this to say about problems with the Obamcare website during a speech in New Orleans: "I promise you, nobody's been more frustrated. I wanted to go in and fix it myself, but I don't write code."

But plenty of programmers do write code. And three of them have created their own website that addresses some of the most annoying problems with HealthCare.gov.

In a San Francisco office shared with other tech start-ups, three 20-year-olds saw HealthCare.gov as a challenge.

With a few late nights, Ning Liang, George Kalogeropoulos and Michael Wasser built "thehealthsherpa.com," a two-week-old website that solves one of the biggest problems with the government's site.

"They got it completely backwards in terms of what people want up front," said Liang. He added: "They want prices and benefits, so that they could make the decision."

Liang showed CBS News how it worked. "You come to our website and you put in your zip code -- in this case a California zip code. You hit 'find plans,' and you immediately see the exchange plans that are available for that zip code."

The CBS video interview is interesting.

Click on link at the top if video does not play.

Thanks to reader "Rick" for the link.

Not Quite Ready

I entered my zipcode, 60012, and requested all plans for me alone - over 50, and no plans came up. I tried again with "you and spouse" and again no plans came up. Either they do not have all zipcodes entered or there are some other issues.

In my post Tips on Navigating Obamacare Costs on HealthCare.Gov - My Personal Experience - Obamashock! I noted there were 60 plans for McHenry County.

Perhaps they need to add "county" for some states.

Regardless, the website has a better interface and with a few bugs fixed, no one will need Healthcare.Gov, a website that cost taxpayers something on the order of $300 million.

I emailed the website developers and will post an update when I hear back.

As is typical with government projects, it seems no one really knows for sure what the healthcare.gov costs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Caught Using Fictional Rating System for Italian Bonds Used as Collateral for Loans

Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:26 AM PST

Spiegel online has an article on the non-transparent as well as fictional way the ECB treats Stripped Bonds (Strips) of Italian Banks handed over to ECB as collateral for loans.

Currently ECB rates various Italian Strips with an "A" rating, though no rating agency rates Italian bonds, let alone Strips, with an A.

ECB claims it is correct, because a tiny rating agency, DBRS, still rates Italian bonds with an A. However, DBRS said to Spiegel upon being questioned, that this particular rating was not to be applied to Strips.

Two hours later DBRS sent an email to Spiegel, claiming that they (Spiegel) must not use this information in public.

Via Google Translate from Der Spiegel, with thanks to reader Bernd, please consider The strange standards of the ECB

When it comes to the valuation of bonds, the ECB wants to be independent and transparent. But that manages to SPIEGEL ONLINE information, not always. In many Italian government securities, the central bank based on a credit rating that is not according to the rating agency for these bonds.

According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the European Central Bank (ECB) has very unusual standards when it comes to the valuation of government bonds, on deposit as collateral for loans. Specifically, it's about 116 Italian government bonds without coupon interest rate, known as stripped bonds or short strips. They are currently valued by the ECB and the Italian national central bank with a grade of "A" - although rating agencies actually do not assign that grade.

By assigning an "A" rating, the ECB favors those banks that submit such papers as collateral when they borrow money from the central bank. This especially favors Italian financial institutions.

In the evaluation of collateral, the ECB relies on the scores of the four rating agencies. While large companies S & P, Moody's and Fitch Italy have credit already on a "B" status downgraded, only the smaller agency DBRS, caries the "A" rating of 116 Italian Strips bonds.

The problem: The agency itself has told SPIEGEL ONLINE stated that their ratings are not applicable for Strips.

Stripped bonds are securities of a special kind: The offshoot of fixed rate bonds are sold to pay the revenue generated interest due to other securities. They also have a so-called zero coupon: The yield on these strips with some long term will only be paid when due, until then sees the investors in such securities no money. The profit of the investor resulting from the difference between the purchase price and the redemption at maturity of the bond. It is an investment that requires a lot of trust in the buyer's future solvency of the seller. In this case, the confidence of future Italian governments apply. And this must be long: 56 of these strips have remaining maturities of more than ten years, 30 of which are not paid 20 for years, the last three not until 2041.

Fitch rates 107 of the strips as 'B'. The classification used by the ECB should not be used. It's that simple.

Suddenly, DBRS Is Silent

Just three hours after the ECB's reply to the request by SPIEGEL ONLINE, another e-mail came from DBRS: Statements to SPIEGEL ONLINE should not be made public and DBRS would longer comment on this matter.

That's what you call an emergency brake.

Emergency Brake

More than a little pressure on DBRS by ECB president Mario Draghi, coupled with a distinct willingness of the ECB to look the other way? Ya Think? What other sleight-of-hand magic is the ECB making?

I used the word "Fictional" in the title of this post. "Fraudulent" seems more like it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 11 noiembrie 2013

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

How to Track the Online ROI of Offline Advertising

How to Track the Online ROI of Offline Advertising

Create a custom URL for your ads

Set up redirects and campaign parameters

Track your ROI

Seth's Blog : The generous skeptic

The generous skeptic

More Recent Articles

duminică, 10 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Jason Torres sent you a message: You received a video: "How I Learned How To Make Money Online"!

Seth's Blog : The first lie...

The first lie...

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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luni, 11 noiembrie 2013

Create a custom URL for your ads

Set up redirects and campaign parameters

Track your ROI

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duminică, 10 noiembrie 2013

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