luni, 16 decembrie 2013

Seth's Blog : The care and feeding (and shunning) of vampires

 

The care and feeding (and shunning) of vampires

Vampires, of course, feed on something that we desperately need but also can't imagine being a source of food.

You have metaphorical vampires in your life. These are people that feed on negativity, on shooting down ideas and most of all, on extinguishing your desire to make things better.

Why would someone do that? Why would they rush to respond to a heartfelt and generous blog post with a snide comment about a typo in the third line? Why would they go out of their way to fold their arms, make a grimace and destroy any hope you had for changing the status quo?

Vampires cannot be cured. They cannot be taught, they cannot learn the error of their ways. Most of all, vampires will never understand how much damage they're doing to you and your work. Pity the vampires, they are doomed to this life.

Your garlic is simple: shun them. Delete their email, turn off comments, don't read your one-star reviews. Don't attend meetings where they show up. Don't buy into the false expectation that in an organizational democracy, every voice matters. Every voice doesn't matter--only the voices that move your idea forward, that make it better, that make you better, that make it more likely you will ship work that benefits your tribe.

It's so tempting to evangelize to the vampires, to prove them wrong, to help them see how destructive they are. This is food for them, merely encouragement.

Shun the ones who feed on your failures.

       

 

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duminică, 15 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Haircut Deficit: Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending; Since Recession Ended, Durable Goods +34%, Services +6.3%; What's Next?

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 06:52 PM PST

The recession ended in mid-2009. Since then spending on services has lagged spending on durable goods by a huge margin.

Why? A record number of Millennials, adults aged 18 to 32, put off household formation and stay at home to live with parents.

Why? No job and/or huge college debt with no way to pay it back.

The jobless rate for Americans aged 18 to 19 years old stood at 19.2%. Unemployment among 20- to 24-year-olds is 11.6 percent. In contrast, the overall unemployment rate is 7%.

Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending

Bloomberg reports on the Haircut Deficit, Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending.
Consumer spending on services -- everything from rents and water bills to health care and haircuts -- is a laggard as the economy has recovered from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Such expenditures adjusted for inflation have risen 6.3 percent since mid-2009, compared with a 34 percent surge in outlays on durable goods such as automobiles and appliances, according to data from the Commerce Department in Washington.

Purchases of durable goods have been quicker to recover. Some of the growth is driven by record-low interest rates, supporting auto sales that account for almost a quarter of the increase in spending on long-lasting items. Another contributor is pent-up demand for replacement of aging household goods such as appliances and furniture. Neither force has much effect on purchases of services, which are more likely than durable goods to be paid for in cash. 

From 2008 through this year, the annual rise in the number of households has averaged less than 1 percent. That compares with an average year-over-year gain of about 1.7 percent in Census Bureau data going back to 1948.

"If you look at household size, the average number of people per household has gone up," said Mark Vitner, a senior economist in Charlotte, North Carolina, at Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender. "Consumption of household services by person has actually gone down because it's the same amount of space consumed by three people instead of two."

Millennials -- adults aged 18 to 32 -- are still slow to set out on their own more than four years after the recession ended, according to an Oct. 18 report by the Pew Research Center in Washington. Just over one in three head their own households, close to a 38-year low set in 2010.

Growing income inequality also may be playing a role, squeezing the take-home pay of those less well-off and forcing them to scrimp on spending, said William Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Business.

The richest 10 percent of Americans last year earned more than half of all income, the largest total since 1917, according to Emmanuel Saez, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley.

The steep rise in spending on durable goods has largely been fueled by a surge in loans to purchase automobiles. Outstanding automotive loan balances climbed to a record-high $782.9 billion in the third quarter, $103 billion more than the same three-month period in 2012, according to seven years of data from industry researcher Experian Automotive.
What's Next?

Via email, a close friend "BC" commented on "What's Next"

The top 1-10% receive 50% of income in an economy in which 72% of GDP is Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Unless the top 10% increase spending ~6%/yr., US real final sales per capita will be near 0% at the trend population and reported deflator.

The bottom 90%, who receive the other 50% of income, are not experiencing any growth of purchasing power after factoring in taxes, inflation, and debt service. They contribute little-to-nothing in growth of real final sales per capita.

Once the Boomer top 10-20% replace their auto fleets, real retail sales and real final sales per capita will again contract.

Wealth Effect

I would add that some of the spending, especially on autos, is due to the wealth effect of rising stock market and recovery in home prices. A substantial (and lengthy) decline in the stock market is long overdue. And when it comes it will pressure sales and services in general.

What's coming isn't pretty even though the precise timing is unknown.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Twenty-Three Hurt in Spain Protest Against Anti-Protest Legislation; Peripheral Europe Powder Keg Ready to Explode

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 02:08 PM PST

Protests are underway in Madrid. Riot police were called out to suppress the demonstrations. At least 23 are hurt including 14 police officers.

The protesters are protesting proposed anti-protest legislation including a fine of €30,000 for "Insulting Police Officers" and a whopping €600,000 for demonstrating near parliament without permission.

Please consider Clashes in Madrid as demonstrators rally against anti-protest bill.
At least 23 people have been hurt in clashes outside the Spanish Parliament in Madrid, as hundreds of protesters gathered on Saturday to demonstrate against newly proposed anti-protest legislation.

The demonstrators held signs that said 'Freedom to protest' and 'People's Party, shame of Spain!' while police and barricades prevented them from getting any closer to the parliament building.

The new law, drafted by Spain's ruling People's Party, would introduce fines for activists taking part in unauthorized protests, publishing images of police, or interrupting public events.

Demonstrating near parliament without permission could result in a fine as high as 600,000 euro (US$824,040), while insulting a police officer could cost a demonstrator up to 30,000 euro ($41,202).
Images from RT





Click on the top link for more images and an RT video.

Peripheral Europe Powder Keg Ready to Explode

The anti-protest legislation suggests things are seriously out of control in Spain. But it's far worse than that.

Amazingly stiff anti-protest legislation coupled with the rise of the neo-Nazi "Golden Dawn" party in Greece, the Catalan separatist  movement in Spain, and numerous "pitchfork protests" in Italy, strongly suggests peripheral Europe is a powder keg ready to explode.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy "Pitchfork Protests" Continue; "LettaSpeak" Translation; Nonworking Parts

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 11:26 AM PST

The "pitchfork protests" in Italy have now gone on for a week. RT reports 'Pitchfork' protesters clash with police in week of anti-austerity rallies
Protesters in several Italian cities have clashed with police amid anti-austerity protests which have lasted for almost one week. The so-called "Pitchfork" protesters are marching against cuts and calling for the government to resign.

Demonstrators hit Rome, Venice, and Turin on Saturday. Students threw paint bombs at police in Turin, which has been the epicenter of the protests. The city has seen the largest number of clashes with law enforcement, with officers using tear gas to disperse demonstrators who hurled stones.

Turin protesters also blocked rail traffic and stopped trains at the city's main stations. Truckers - protesting high taxes and fuel prices - and students brought traffic to a virtual standstill earlier this week. Activists pitched tents on a bridge across a river bordering France, near the town of Ventimiglia, forcing police to step in. City authorities ordered reinforcement from security forces.

Activists have promised larger demonstrations in the capital next week. The protests are being staged in the name of the Forconi – or Pitchfork – movement, which was originally organized by a group of Sicilian farmers.

"There are millions of us and we are growing by the hour. This government has to go," Reuters quoted one of the leaders of the protests, Danilo Calvani, as saying earlier this week.

As demonstrators blame the two-year recession on politicians, they are demanding that the government be replaced and parliament be dissolved.

Fourteen policemen have been injured over the past several days. Many shops and other properties have been damaged.

On Thursday, Interior Minister Angelino Alfano voiced concerns that the unrest could "lead to a spiral of rebellion against national and European institutions." He told lawmakers that although the government understood "the suffering of poor people," it would not allow the violence to continue.

Alfano said that the government has tried to talk with the protesters, but has thus far failed because there are many different groups and no clear leaders. 
Protest Images

RT has four excellent images of the protests. Here are a couple of them.





Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion"

Last Thursday I reported Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion".

"LettaSpeak" Translation

In response to my article, reader George offered comments on this paragraph from my article: "Letta has warned repeatedly that opposition to the government and the EU is growing strongly, fuelled by sacrifices needed to keep public finances in order and which could result in a massive anti-EU vote in next year's European parliamentary elections."

George says "Hello Mish. The sacrifices Letta refers to are nothing more than taxes paid to an oligarchic government, so the government can pay interest to private bankers, on money the bankers had lent to the government, money that the bankers worked so hard on their computers to create."

Nonworking Parts

That's part of it. Some of the taxes go to support public unions, and the rest goes to government bureaucrats doing everything they can to not only pad their own pockets but also to stay in power.

I leave it to the reader to assign percentages to each of the "nonworking" parts. The percentage of working parts is small and can safely be ignored in assignment of where tax money goes.

And please note the irony. The "pitchfork" movement is up in arms because government is not handing out enough jobs, giving away enough free money, and giving away enough free services.

Here's the "real" pitchfork beef: Most of them are upset because they're not in on the scam.

That leads to the next question: How much would it cost to do what the movement wants, and where would the money come from?

As bad as all this is, the Euro made matters far worse. It can't and won't last.

Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Soft tissue

 

Soft tissue

Most organizations are built around three anatomical concepts: Bone, muscle and soft tissue.

The bones are the conceptual skeleton, the people who stand for something, who have been around, have a mission and don't bend easily, even if there's an apparently justifiable no-one-is-watching shortcut at hand. "We don't do things that way around here."

The muscles are able to do the heavy lifting. They are the top salespeople, the designers with useful and significant output, the performers who can be counted on to do more than their share.

And the soft tissue brings bulk, it protects the muscles and the bones. The soft tissue can fill a room, handle details, add heft in many ways. It can bring protection and cohesion, and sometimes turn into muscle.

When a bone breaks, we notice it. When those that make up the organization's skeleton leave, or lose their nerve or their verve, the entire organizations gasps, and often rushes to fix the problem.

Muscles are easily measured, and we've built countless organizational tools to find and reward our best producers.

But soft tissue... soft tissue is easy to add to the team, but time-consuming to remove. Soft tissue bogs down the rest of the organization, what with all those meetings, the slowdown of time to market, the difficulty in turning on a dime.

An organization that lets itself be overwhelmed by the small but insistent demands of too much soft tissue gets happy, then it gets fat, then it dies.

       

 

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sâmbătă, 14 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


French Hypocrisy at Its Finest: France Broadens Its Surveillance Power; "Susie Did It Too!"

Posted: 14 Dec 2013 02:40 PM PST

In October, French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said he was "deeply shocked" by reports that the US National Security Agency had secretly monitored tens of millions of phone conversations within France and demanded an explanation.

"Susie Did It Too!"

The U.S. response was 'All Nations' Spy as if that makes the practice of blanket spying on citizens OK.

Our response was like that of a 6-year old kid caught raiding the cookie jar, responding "Susie did it too!"

French Hypocricy at Its Finest

Two days ago the Voice of Russia noted France steps up net surveillance weeks after protesting against NSA spying.


The French government has adopted a bill allowing the authorities to access and gather internet user data in real time without judicial approval. The senate approved the legislation just weeks after France expressed outrage at NSA spying practices. The bill has been slammed by activists as going "against the principles of democracy".

The measures, given final parliamentary approval by the senate on Tuesday night, extend authority to gather digital information, previously limited to intelligence agencies, to the defense, interior, finance and budget ministries.

The law gives French intelligence services access to telephone and Internet usage data that would let them locate and follow the target of a terrorism investigation in real time. In addition, the law provides agents with access not just to meta data about users from website hosts but allows them to seize content stored on websites and in clouds. It also provides for access in real time to the location of mobile devices.

The information can be demanded without the prior approval of a judge, as previously required but there will be post-facto monitoring by national oversight bodies. Currently in France, authorities are required to apply for a warrant to access this information, a process that usually takes several months.
France Broadens Its Surveillance Power

Today the New York Times confirms the report in France Broadens Its Surveillance Power.

The upfront details are the same although Russia Today had more of them. In turn, the NYT has a few interesting items of its own. Let's pick up this story in the middle.
The Association des Services Internet Communautaires, or @sic, an advocacy group whose members include AOL, eBay, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and several top French Internet companies, discovered the new legislation essentially by chance.

"There was no consultation at all," said Giuseppe de Martino, @sic's director and an executive at Dailymotion, a French online video service. "No one said anything about it to us."

The National Commission for Information Technology and Freedoms, a state administration meant to protect the rights and privacy of citizens, said it was not consulted on the contentious elements of the bill, though it was asked to review other provisions.

The government denied any effort to shield the law from public scrutiny. The bill went through four votes in Parliament, noted one government official. "Not exactly discreet, as maneuvers go," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Please note the irony in that last paragraph.

French Citizens Should Have Been Angry for 23 Years

In still further irony, Jean-Pierre Sueur, a senator from President François Hollande's Socialist Party, said identical provisions have been in place since the passage of an electronic intercepts law in 1991. "If they're angry about this, they ought to have been angry for 23 years," Mr. Sueur said.

PRECISELY!

Unfortunately, no one knew about the spying until now, because it was hidden.

Thus once again I sing the praises of U.S. and international public hero Edward Snowden, for revealing precisely what governments are doing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

How to Open a Wine Bottle With a Shoe

Posted: 14 Dec 2013 10:52 AM PST

Have a bottle of wine but no corkscrew?

Should you ever find yourself in that situation, I offer the following video as a public service announcement.



Link if video does not play: How to Open a Wine Bottle With a Shoe

Thanks to reader "Bob" who sent me the video.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Marking the One-Year Anniversary of the Tragic Shooting in Newtown, Connecticut

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Marking the One-Year Anniversary of the Tragic Shooting in Newtown, Connecticut

In his weekly address, President Obama honors the memory of the 26 innocent children and educators who were taken from us a year ago in Newton, Connecticut.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 

 
 
  Top Stories

Remembering Nelson Mandela: On Monday, the President and First Lady departed for South Africa to attend the national memorial service for former South African President Nelson Mandela. The next day they joined tens of thousands of mourners at Johannesburg’s FNB Stadium to say farewell to the man also known as Madiba. The President spoke at the memorial service, reflecting on what Mandela meant to him personally and to the people of South Africa.

For the people of South Africa, for those he inspired around the globe, Madiba’s passing is rightly a time of mourning, and a time to celebrate a heroic life. But I believe it should also prompt in each of us a time for self-reflection. With honesty, regardless of our station or our circumstance, we must ask: How well have I applied his lessons in my own life? It’s a question I ask myself, as a man and as a President. 

Read his full remarks here and catch up on the last time the Mandela family was at the White House

“Program It”: This week was Computer Science Education Week, or CSEdWeek, an annual campaign that highlights the importance of learning computer science. The President recorded a message in support of CSEdWeek, encouraging young people to learn computer science. “Don’t just buy a new video game, make one,” he said. “Don’t just download the latest app, help design it. Don’t just play on your phone, program it.” You can take part in CSEdWeek activities by going to Code.org.  

Talking Immigration: On Wednesday, Vice President Joe Biden and Cecilia Munoz, the President’s Domestic Policy Advisor Council took part in a live Skype video call where they answered questions on immigration submitted via Skype and on Twitter. Watch video from the call here

Kennedy Center Honors Reception: The President and First Lady hosted this year’s Kennedy Center Honorees on Sunday. Five people were awarded this honor for their lifetime contributions to entertainment. “Each of our brilliant honorees has given us something unique and enriched us beyond measure, as individuals and as a nation. Together they bring us closer to President Kennedy’s vision of the arts as a great humanizing and truth-telling experience.” Read his full remarks here

Message to the People of the Central African Republic: President Obama recorded an audio message to the people of the Central African Republic, after government affiliated armed groups and independent militias have committed atrocities against innocent civilians. “The awful violence of recent days threatens the country you love,” the President said.

Innocent men, women and children have been killed. Families have fled their homes. And we know from the bitter experience of other countries what happens when societies descend into violence and retribution. Today, my message to you is simple: it doesn’t have to be this way. You—the proud citizens of the Central African Republic—have the power to choose a different path.

The President stated that the people of the Central African Republic should reject the violence and move towards a more peaceful future. 

White House Gingerbread House: Ever wanted to see how a 300-pound, edible White House replica is made? Check out this post and video that shows how the gingerbread house and life-size hearth from 1,2000 Springerle cookies came together. 


 

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Seth's Blog : The semiotics of type

 

The semiotics of type

USE ALL CAPS IF YOU'RE YELLING.

Italics has many uses. Too many. We rely on it for referencing Latin (per capita) or slang or snideness or asides or internal monologues (I wonder if this sentence is a run-on).

We can get you to pay attention if we use bold, sparingly.

But now there's an explosion brewing, because we've given everyone the tools they need to set type, and because almost all our communication is done in type.

So alt-2 is a great way for me to remind you that I just-coined-a-phrase™. And a blue underlined term is a clear signal that there's an internet link that might be worth clicking on.

Because we're scanning instead of reading, the need for these glanceable shortcuts is increasing... and because we're ever more connected, it's more likely that someone will coin a sign and have it spread and be adopted.

Like green type as a sign that you've linked to something for sale. Or the #hashtag to indicate a categorical term that's friendly to Twitter. Or just a way of typing a word in a certain form of hip aside. #clever.

Or comic sans type when referencing something done in bad taste.

When we push too fast, our type ends up looking like a ransom note, which was endemic after the early Mac let people start mixing and matching typefaces. Here's the thing, though: the typical Wikipedia article or tweet is such a mix and match and mismatch of signs and signals that to someone from ten years ago, it probably looks as bad as those ransom notes did.

       

 

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vineri, 13 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Stockton Doomed to Another Bankruptcy; Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:21 PM PST

Heading into bankruptcy Stockton, California had about $147 million in unfunded pension obligations and about $250 million in debt from various bond issues.

The city could have and should have shed some of those pension obligations and made changes in various pension agreements, but it didn't.

It did shed bond debt for one cent on the dollar, subject to lawsuits.

Stockton Doomed to Another "Stigma of Bankruptcy"

The New York Times reports Stockton Return to Solvency, With Pension Problem Unsolved
Battered by a collapse in real estate prices, a spike in pension and retiree health care costs, and unmanageable debt, this struggling city in the Central Valley has labored for months to find a way out of Chapter 9. Now having renegotiated its debt with most creditors, cobbled together layoffs and service cuts and raised the sales tax to 9 percent from 8.25 percent, Stockton is nearly ready to leave court protection.

But what Stockton, along with pretty much every other city in California that has gone into bankruptcy in recent years, has not done is address the skyrocketing public pensions that are at the heart of many of these cases.

"No city wants to take on the state pension system by itself," said Stockton's new mayor, Anthony Silva, referring to the California Public Employees' Retirement System, or Calpers. "Every city thinks some other city will take care of it."

"They wanted to get out of bankruptcy in the worst possible way, and that's just what they did," said Dean Andal of the San Joaquin County Taxpayers Association, which fought the sales-tax increase. "If they go ahead and hire those new police officers, the city will be back in insolvency in four years."

City officials insist their plan will work. "We got the tax, and thank God it passed," Councilman Holman said. "I have confidence that the numbers line up."

Nor does the Detroit ruling this week make Stockton want to revisit pension reductions. Connie Cochran, a city spokeswoman, said that city workers had already seen their pay and retiree health benefits cut. In addition, she said, Calpers told the city that its only option was to pay a $970 million termination fee to leave the system, and Stockton could not afford it.

Mayor Silva said the city's plan would help it out of bankruptcy sometime late next spring, if all goes well, after the judge hearing the case has time to rule on its fairness and viability and negotiations can be completed with one final bondholding creditor.

"We will lose the stigma of bankruptcy, and it will buy us time," he said.
Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way

I am hoping the judge tells Stockton its plan is not viable (for the simple reason it isn't viable).

Raising taxes is not the way you deal with preposterous pension obligations.

When CalPERS  told the city "the only option was to pay a $970 million termination fee to leave the system" the city could have and should have spit in their face (not literally of course).

The polite way of doing that would have been a balanced blend of pension haircuts and bond haircuts.

Instead, by putting 100% of the burden on bondholders, the city virtually ensured inability to issue further bonds at a reasonable interest rate. Moreover, the city punished taxpayers, and did nothing to fix untenable pension obligations.

Stockton is doomed unless the bankruptcy judge handing the case sends Stockton back to the drawing board.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Dirty Jobs" Mike Rowe on the High Cost of College; Get Ready to Get Dirty; What's Wrong With the College Model?

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 12:39 PM PST

Mike Rowe, host of the Discovery Channel series Dirty Jobs chimes in on the US education system in an interview with Nick Gillespie on Reason.Com.



click on above link if video does not play

Rowe: If we are lending money that ostensibly we don't have to kids who have no hope of making it back in order to train them for jobs that clearly don't exist, I might suggest that we've gone around the bend a little bit.

Gillespie: We are doing everything we can to push every kid to go to a four-year college. What's wrong with that?
Rowe: It's not working. You have a trillion dollars in debt on the student loan side. You have a skills gap, something [interrupted by Gillespie]

Gillespie: What do you mean a skills gap?
Rowe: Right now you have about 3 million jobs in transportation, commerce, trades, that can't be filled.  

Gillespie: Anything from carpentry to electricians, plumbers,
Rowe: [interjects] Heating, electric, truck drivers, welders is a big one, jobs that typically parents don't sit down and say to their kids - look if all goes well, this is what you are going to do.

Rowe's advice is summed up in the following clip I took from the video.

Get Ready to Get Dirty



The video is a lengthy 41 minutes but Reason.com provides this synopsis so you can skip to topics that interest you.

  • His bad experience with a high school guidance counselor (3:20)
  • Why he provides scholarships based on work ethic (6:57)
  • The problem with taxpayer-supported college loans (8:40)
  • Why America demonizes dirty jobs (11:32)
  • The happiest day of his life (13:14)
  • Why following your passion is terrible advice (17:05)
  • Why it's so hard to hire good people (21:04)
  • The hidden cost of regulatory compliance (23:16)
  • The problem with Obama's promise to create shovel ready jobs (33:05)
  • Efficiency versus effectiveness (34:17)
  • Life after Dirty Jobs (38:24)

Work Smart, Not Hard



The 3:20 mark discusses this higher education ad campaign thrust upon Rowe by Mr. Dunbar, high school guidance counselor

Picking up at the 7:50 mark ...

Gillespie: When did the idea disappear that you should learn a skill that is actually useful or in need?
Rowe: That's a good question for a real social anthropologist. My own opinion is there is a kind of inertia that most parents would agree that it exists. And it's  a desire see something better for your kids than you had. The question of course is "what is better?" Is it better, right now today, to have $140,000 in debt but a degree from Georgetown, or is it better to be that kid I described in Butler.

It's an excellent interview, please listen to at least a portion of it.

My Take

  1. At the right price, college may be a good choice, but it's not always a good choice. 
  2. Government interference in education has so increased the cost of education, and so many kids are pushed into totally useless degrees, that college is an increasingly poor choice until costs come down. 
  3. Points one and two especially hold true for those in programs that qualify a person to do nothing but work as a retail clerk upon graduation.
  4. To help bring down education costs, we need more alternative courses, more two-year trade courses, more online courses, reduced administration costs, and termination of defined benefit pension plans for teachers. Simply put, we need more competition and reduced costs at every point in the system.
  5. The student loan program is an abysmal failure and should be abolished.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion"

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 10:11 AM PST

Over the past four days "pitchfork protests" have spread to numerous cities, disrupting road and rail travel in protest of the state of the economy.

The pitchfork movement started with a loose group of Sicilian farmers concerned about rising taxes and cuts to agricultural state funds, then evolved into a nationwide umbrella grouping of truckers, small businessman, the unemployed, low-paid workers, rightwing extremists and ultras football supporters according to IBTimes.

Map of Major Protests



Map courtesy of Stratfor.

Pitchfork Protests Spread to Rome

Reuters reports Italy's 'pitchfork protests,' in fourth day, spread to Rome.
Italy's "pitchfork" protests spread to Rome on Thursday when hundreds of students clashed with police and threw firecrackers outside a university where government ministers were attending a conference.

Truckers, small businessmen, the unemployed, students and low-paid workers have staged four days of rallies in cities from Turin in the north to Sicily in the south in the name of the "pitchfork" movement, originally a loosely organized group of farmers from Sicily.
"There are millions of us and we are growing by the hour. This government has to go," said Danilo Calvani, a farmer who has emerged as one of the leader of the protests.

Interior Minister Angelino Alfano told parliament the unrest could "lead to a spiral of rebellion against national and European institutions."

The protests are fuelled by falling incomes, unemployment above 12 percent and at a record 41 percent among people below 25, and graft and scandals among politicians widely seen as serving their own rather than the country's interests.

The protesters' precise aims remain vague beyond demanding the government be replaced and parliament dissolved. Targets range from tax collection agency Equitalia and high fuel prices to privileged elites and the euro.

Mario Borghezio, an outspoken Northern League member of the European Parliament, on Thursday used the protests to attack the euro and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi.

"The wind of revolt that is blowing in Italy today is the direct result of the euro and the wrong choices made by the EU and the ECB," he said during the ECB chief's testimony to the European Parliament.

'Pitchfork' Protests Rattle Italian Government

The BBC reports 'Pitchfork' Protests Rattle Italian Government
First it was the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by charismatic comedian Beppe Grillo, that shook up Italy's political landscape.

Now a new populist movement headed by disgruntled farmers and lorry drivers has taken its anti-austerity message to Italy's streets and squares.

The past week has seen four days of rallies and protest actions across the country by the Forconi, or "Pitchforks". The name derives from the movement's roots among struggling farmers in Sicily, who in 2011 and 2012 staged strikes and roadblocks to demand more help from the government.

The loose-knit grouping has expanded nationwide and has drawn in a variety of groups who have suffered badly as Italy's economic crisis has dragged on. The protesters include road hauliers, small businessmen, low-paid workers, the unemployed and students.

Some of the protesters complain of excessive state regulation and are unhappy about austerity-driven tax hikes. Others have denounced capitalism and the euro.

All seem to be united in their contempt for Italy's politicians, who are accused of failing to address the country's grave economic problems.

'Drift into rebellion'

The Italian government on Thursday expressed its concern and Interior Minister Angelino Alfano warned of the danger of a "drift into rebellion" by the movement. He spoke of the protests drawing in elements bent on violence.
Beppe Grillo Urges Police to Join Movement

Reuters reports Italy's Grillo urges police to join "pitchfork" protests
The head of Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement Beppe Grillo urged police on Tuesday to join protesters as a wave of "pitchfork" protests gave vent to bitter frustration after years of austerity and recession.

Grillo, whose movement has no direct connection with the protests, welcomed reports that several police officers took off their riot helmets and expressed sympathy with demonstrators on Monday.

"Italians are on your side. Join them. At the next demonstrations, tell your guys to take off their helmets and fraternize with the citizens," he wrote on his popular blog. "It will be an extreme, peaceful and revolutionary signal and Italy will change," he wrote.

Though there are no direct ties to Grillo's movement, both tap into the growing anger in many parts of Italy after the worst recession in postwar history.

Letta has warned repeatedly that opposition to the government and the EU is growing strongly, fuelled by sacrifices needed to keep public finances in order and which could result in a massive anti-EU vote in next year's European parliamentary elections.
Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....

I repeat once again my 2011 message Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....

Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Greece, Finland, Germany, Belgium, and even France are possibilities. All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Does the US Have Enough Military Bases?

Posted: 12 Dec 2013 11:32 PM PST

Inquiring minds might be interested in the analysis of artist Josh Begley who catalogs every U.S. military base in the world. Here is a representation.



Gizmodo comments on the Chilling Geometry of Every US Military Base Seen From Space.
The United States military is everywhere. It's so big that it's hard to quantify just how massive it is—any number used to describe it is so large that it defies the understanding of an ordinary human brain.

A self-described "data artist," Begley has started an ongoing effort to collect satellite imagery from every U.S. military installation in the world. The initial map, parked at Empire.is, collects all of the data listed in the Department of Defense's 2013 Base Structure Report. The official report doesn't include the military's secret bases, though, so Begley has included others that have been unearthed—and he encourages people to submit information for others that he's missing.

The resulting collection is mind-boggling. At the top, there's a zoomable world map with all of the installations plotted. Keep zooming in, and eventually the map will reveal the satellite imagery for each location, assuming it exists. As Begley points out, plenty of sites have been censored from public view.
Mapping the United States Military Footprint

Please consider Mapping the United States Military Footprint on Google Maps Mania (an unofficial Google Maps blog tracking the websites, mashups and tools being influenced by Google Maps).
The United States has well over 700 military bases across the planet with official facilities in at least 37 countries. Empire.is is a map showing the location of United States military installations, not only in the US but around the world.

As well as mapping known United States military installations Empire.es also provides aerial imagery of a large number of the bases, sourced from Google and Bing Maps.

The data for the military locations is from the 2013 Base Structure Report and from sites reported by journalists and geographers. The author of the map says that there are still many military bases missing from the map.

Image from Empire.Is 



Questions

  1. Given that any satellite can pick up this information, is there any rational reason to have "secret bases"?
  2. Is any base really a secret?
  3. Would US security be hampered if 25% of the bases were shut down? 50%? 80%?

The answers are 1-no, 2-no, 3-no, no, no.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com