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luni, 16 decembrie 2013

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Seth's Blog : The care and feeding (and shunning) of vampires

The care and feeding (and shunning) of vampires

Vampires, of course, feed on something that we desperately need but also can't imagine being a source of food.

You have metaphorical vampires in your life. These are people that feed on negativity, on shooting down ideas and most of all, on extinguishing your desire to make things better.

Why would someone do that? Why would they rush to respond to a heartfelt and generous blog post with a snide comment about a typo in the third line? Why would they go out of their way to fold their arms, make a grimace and destroy any hope you had for changing the status quo?

Vampires cannot be cured. They cannot be taught, they cannot learn the error of their ways. Most of all, vampires will never understand how much damage they're doing to you and your work. Pity the vampires, they are doomed to this life.

Your garlic is simple: shun them. Delete their email, turn off comments, don't read your one-star reviews. Don't attend meetings where they show up. Don't buy into the false expectation that in an organizational democracy, every voice matters. Every voice doesn't matter--only the voices that move your idea forward, that make it better, that make you better, that make it more likely you will ship work that benefits your tribe.

It's so tempting to evangelize to the vampires, to prove them wrong, to help them see how destructive they are. This is food for them, merely encouragement.

Shun the ones who feed on your failures.

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duminică, 15 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Haircut Deficit: Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending; Since Recession Ended, Durable Goods +34%, Services +6.3%; What's Next?
Twenty-Three Hurt in Spain Protest Against Anti-Protest Legislation; Peripheral Europe Powder Keg Ready to Explode
Italy "Pitchfork Protests" Continue; "LettaSpeak" Translation; Nonworking Parts

Haircut Deficit: Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending; Since Recession Ended, Durable Goods +34%, Services +6.3%; What's Next?

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 06:52 PM PST

The recession ended in mid-2009. Since then spending on services has lagged spending on durable goods by a huge margin.

Why? A record number of Millennials, adults aged 18 to 32, put off household formation and stay at home to live with parents.

Why? No job and/or huge college debt with no way to pay it back.

The jobless rate for Americans aged 18 to 19 years old stood at 19.2%. Unemployment among 20- to 24-year-olds is 11.6 percent. In contrast, the overall unemployment rate is 7%.

Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending

Bloomberg reports on the Haircut Deficit, Kids Living in Basements a Drag on U.S. Services Spending.

Consumer spending on services -- everything from rents and water bills to health care and haircuts -- is a laggard as the economy has recovered from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Such expenditures adjusted for inflation have risen 6.3 percent since mid-2009, compared with a 34 percent surge in outlays on durable goods such as automobiles and appliances, according to data from the Commerce Department in Washington.

Purchases of durable goods have been quicker to recover. Some of the growth is driven by record-low interest rates, supporting auto sales that account for almost a quarter of the increase in spending on long-lasting items. Another contributor is pent-up demand for replacement of aging household goods such as appliances and furniture. Neither force has much effect on purchases of services, which are more likely than durable goods to be paid for in cash.

From 2008 through this year, the annual rise in the number of households has averaged less than 1 percent. That compares with an average year-over-year gain of about 1.7 percent in Census Bureau data going back to 1948.

"If you look at household size, the average number of people per household has gone up," said Mark Vitner, a senior economist in Charlotte, North Carolina, at Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender. "Consumption of household services by person has actually gone down because it's the same amount of space consumed by three people instead of two."

Millennials -- adults aged 18 to 32 -- are still slow to set out on their own more than four years after the recession ended, according to an Oct. 18 report by the Pew Research Center in Washington. Just over one in three head their own households, close to a 38-year low set in 2010.

Growing income inequality also may be playing a role, squeezing the take-home pay of those less well-off and forcing them to scrimp on spending, said William Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Business.

The richest 10 percent of Americans last year earned more than half of all income, the largest total since 1917, according to Emmanuel Saez, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley.

The steep rise in spending on durable goods has largely been fueled by a surge in loans to purchase automobiles. Outstanding automotive loan balances climbed to a record-high $782.9 billion in the third quarter, $103 billion more than the same three-month period in 2012, according to seven years of data from industry researcher Experian Automotive.

What's Next?

Via email, a close friend "BC" commented on "What's Next"

The top 1-10% receive 50% of income in an economy in which 72% of GDP is Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Unless the top 10% increase spending ~6%/yr., US real final sales per capita will be near 0% at the trend population and reported deflator.

The bottom 90%, who receive the other 50% of income, are not experiencing any growth of purchasing power after factoring in taxes, inflation, and debt service. They contribute little-to-nothing in growth of real final sales per capita.

Once the Boomer top 10-20% replace their auto fleets, real retail sales and real final sales per capita will again contract.

Wealth Effect

I would add that some of the spending, especially on autos, is due to the wealth effect of rising stock market and recovery in home prices. A substantial (and lengthy) decline in the stock market is long overdue. And when it comes it will pressure sales and services in general.

What's coming isn't pretty even though the precise timing is unknown.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Twenty-Three Hurt in Spain Protest Against Anti-Protest Legislation; Peripheral Europe Powder Keg Ready to Explode

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 02:08 PM PST

Protests are underway in Madrid. Riot police were called out to suppress the demonstrations. At least 23 are hurt including 14 police officers.

The protesters are protesting proposed anti-protest legislation including a fine of €30,000 for "Insulting Police Officers" and a whopping €600,000 for demonstrating near parliament without permission.

Please consider Clashes in Madrid as demonstrators rally against anti-protest bill.

At least 23 people have been hurt in clashes outside the Spanish Parliament in Madrid, as hundreds of protesters gathered on Saturday to demonstrate against newly proposed anti-protest legislation.

The demonstrators held signs that said 'Freedom to protest' and 'People's Party, shame of Spain!' while police and barricades prevented them from getting any closer to the parliament building.

The new law, drafted by Spain's ruling People's Party, would introduce fines for activists taking part in unauthorized protests, publishing images of police, or interrupting public events.

Demonstrating near parliament without permission could result in a fine as high as 600,000 euro (US$824,040), while insulting a police officer could cost a demonstrator up to 30,000 euro ($41,202).

Images from RT

Click on the top link for more images and an RT video.

Peripheral Europe Powder Keg Ready to Explode

The anti-protest legislation suggests things are seriously out of control in Spain. But it's far worse than that.

Amazingly stiff anti-protest legislation coupled with the rise of the neo-Nazi "Golden Dawn" party in Greece, the Catalan separatist movement in Spain, and numerous "pitchfork protests" in Italy, strongly suggests peripheral Europe is a powder keg ready to explode.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy "Pitchfork Protests" Continue; "LettaSpeak" Translation; Nonworking Parts

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 11:26 AM PST

The "pitchfork protests" in Italy have now gone on for a week. RT reports 'Pitchfork' protesters clash with police in week of anti-austerity rallies

Protesters in several Italian cities have clashed with police amid anti-austerity protests which have lasted for almost one week. The so-called "Pitchfork" protesters are marching against cuts and calling for the government to resign.

Demonstrators hit Rome, Venice, and Turin on Saturday. Students threw paint bombs at police in Turin, which has been the epicenter of the protests. The city has seen the largest number of clashes with law enforcement, with officers using tear gas to disperse demonstrators who hurled stones.

Turin protesters also blocked rail traffic and stopped trains at the city's main stations. Truckers - protesting high taxes and fuel prices - and students brought traffic to a virtual standstill earlier this week. Activists pitched tents on a bridge across a river bordering France, near the town of Ventimiglia, forcing police to step in. City authorities ordered reinforcement from security forces.

Activists have promised larger demonstrations in the capital next week. The protests are being staged in the name of the Forconi – or Pitchfork – movement, which was originally organized by a group of Sicilian farmers.

"There are millions of us and we are growing by the hour. This government has to go," Reuters quoted one of the leaders of the protests, Danilo Calvani, as saying earlier this week.

As demonstrators blame the two-year recession on politicians, they are demanding that the government be replaced and parliament be dissolved.

Fourteen policemen have been injured over the past several days. Many shops and other properties have been damaged.

On Thursday, Interior Minister Angelino Alfano voiced concerns that the unrest could "lead to a spiral of rebellion against national and European institutions." He told lawmakers that although the government understood "the suffering of poor people," it would not allow the violence to continue.

Alfano said that the government has tried to talk with the protesters, but has thus far failed because there are many different groups and no clear leaders.

Protest Images

RT has four excellent images of the protests. Here are a couple of them.

Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion"

Last Thursday I reported Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion".

"LettaSpeak" Translation

In response to my article, reader George offered comments on this paragraph from my article: "Letta has warned repeatedly that opposition to the government and the EU is growing strongly, fuelled by sacrifices needed to keep public finances in order and which could result in a massive anti-EU vote in next year's European parliamentary elections."

George says "Hello Mish. The sacrifices Letta refers to are nothing more than taxes paid to an oligarchic government, so the government can pay interest to private bankers, on money the bankers had lent to the government, money that the bankers worked so hard on their computers to create."

Nonworking Parts

That's part of it. Some of the taxes go to support public unions, and the rest goes to government bureaucrats doing everything they can to not only pad their own pockets but also to stay in power.

I leave it to the reader to assign percentages to each of the "nonworking" parts. The percentage of working parts is small and can safely be ignored in assignment of where tax money goes.

And please note the irony. The "pitchfork" movement is up in arms because government is not handing out enough jobs, giving away enough free money, and giving away enough free services.

Here's the "real" pitchfork beef: Most of them are upset because they're not in on the scam.

That leads to the next question: How much would it cost to do what the movement wants, and where would the money come from?

As bad as all this is, the Euro made matters far worse. It can't and won't last.

Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Soft tissue

Soft tissue

Most organizations are built around three anatomical concepts: Bone, muscle and soft tissue.

The bones are the conceptual skeleton, the people who stand for something, who have been around, have a mission and don't bend easily, even if there's an apparently justifiable no-one-is-watching shortcut at hand. "We don't do things that way around here."

The muscles are able to do the heavy lifting. They are the top salespeople, the designers with useful and significant output, the performers who can be counted on to do more than their share.

And the soft tissue brings bulk, it protects the muscles and the bones. The soft tissue can fill a room, handle details, add heft in many ways. It can bring protection and cohesion, and sometimes turn into muscle.

When a bone breaks, we notice it. When those that make up the organization's skeleton leave, or lose their nerve or their verve, the entire organizations gasps, and often rushes to fix the problem.

Muscles are easily measured, and we've built countless organizational tools to find and reward our best producers.

But soft tissue... soft tissue is easy to add to the team, but time-consuming to remove. Soft tissue bogs down the rest of the organization, what with all those meetings, the slowdown of time to market, the difficulty in turning on a dime.

An organization that lets itself be overwhelmed by the small but insistent demands of too much soft tissue gets happy, then it gets fat, then it dies.

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sâmbătă, 14 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

French Hypocrisy at Its Finest: France Broadens Its Surveillance Power; "Susie Did It Too!"

Posted: 14 Dec 2013 02:40 PM PST

In October, French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said he was "deeply shocked" by reports that the US National Security Agency had secretly monitored tens of millions of phone conversations within France and demanded an explanation.

"Susie Did It Too!"

The U.S. response was 'All Nations' Spy as if that makes the practice of blanket spying on citizens OK.

Our response was like that of a 6-year old kid caught raiding the cookie jar, responding "Susie did it too!"

French Hypocricy at Its Finest

Two days ago the Voice of Russia noted France steps up net surveillance weeks after protesting against NSA spying.

The French government has adopted a bill allowing the authorities to access and gather internet user data in real time without judicial approval. The senate approved the legislation just weeks after France expressed outrage at NSA spying practices. The bill has been slammed by activists as going "against the principles of democracy".

The measures, given final parliamentary approval by the senate on Tuesday night, extend authority to gather digital information, previously limited to intelligence agencies, to the defense, interior, finance and budget ministries.

The law gives French intelligence services access to telephone and Internet usage data that would let them locate and follow the target of a terrorism investigation in real time. In addition, the law provides agents with access not just to meta data about users from website hosts but allows them to seize content stored on websites and in clouds. It also provides for access in real time to the location of mobile devices.

The information can be demanded without the prior approval of a judge, as previously required but there will be post-facto monitoring by national oversight bodies. Currently in France, authorities are required to apply for a warrant to access this information, a process that usually takes several months.

France Broadens Its Surveillance Power

Today the New York Times confirms the report in France Broadens Its Surveillance Power.

The upfront details are the same although Russia Today had more of them. In turn, the NYT has a few interesting items of its own. Let's pick up this story in the middle.

The Association des Services Internet Communautaires, or @sic, an advocacy group whose members include AOL, eBay, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and several top French Internet companies, discovered the new legislation essentially by chance.

"There was no consultation at all," said Giuseppe de Martino, @sic's director and an executive at Dailymotion, a French online video service. "No one said anything about it to us."

The National Commission for Information Technology and Freedoms, a state administration meant to protect the rights and privacy of citizens, said it was not consulted on the contentious elements of the bill, though it was asked to review other provisions.

The government denied any effort to shield the law from public scrutiny. The bill went through four votes in Parliament, noted one government official. "Not exactly discreet, as maneuvers go," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Please note the irony in that last paragraph.

French Citizens Should Have Been Angry for 23 Years

In still further irony, Jean-Pierre Sueur, a senator from President François Hollande's Socialist Party, said identical provisions have been in place since the passage of an electronic intercepts law in 1991. "If they're angry about this, they ought to have been angry for 23 years," Mr. Sueur said.

PRECISELY!

Unfortunately, no one knew about the spying until now, because it was hidden.

Thus once again I sing the praises of U.S. and international public hero Edward Snowden, for revealing precisely what governments are doing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

How to Open a Wine Bottle With a Shoe

Posted: 14 Dec 2013 10:52 AM PST

Have a bottle of wine but no corkscrew?

Should you ever find yourself in that situation, I offer the following video as a public service announcement.

Link if video does not play: How to Open a Wine Bottle With a Shoe

Thanks to reader "Bob" who sent me the video.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Marking the One-Year Anniversary of the Tragic Shooting in Newtown, Connecticut

Featured

Weekly Address: Marking the One-Year Anniversary of the Tragic Shooting in Newtown, Connecticut

In his weekly address, President Obama honors the memory of the 26 innocent children and educators who were taken from us a year ago in Newton, Connecticut.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : The semiotics of type

The semiotics of type

USE ALL CAPS IF YOU'RE YELLING.

Italics has many uses. Too many. We rely on it for referencing Latin (per capita) or slang or snideness or asides or internal monologues (I wonder if this sentence is a run-on).

We can get you to pay attention if we use bold, sparingly.

But now there's an explosion brewing, because we've given everyone the tools they need to set type, and because almost all our communication is done in type.

So alt-2 is a great way for me to remind you that I just-coined-a-phrase™. And a blue underlined term is a clear signal that there's an internet link that might be worth clicking on.

Because we're scanning instead of reading, the need for these glanceable shortcuts is increasing... and because we're ever more connected, it's more likely that someone will coin a sign and have it spread and be adopted.

Like green type as a sign that you've linked to something for sale. Or the #hashtag to indicate a categorical term that's friendly to Twitter. Or just a way of typing a word in a certain form of hip aside. #clever.

Or comic sans type when referencing something done in bad taste.

When we push too fast, our type ends up looking like a ransom note, which was endemic after the early Mac let people start mixing and matching typefaces. Here's the thing, though: the typical Wikipedia article or tweet is such a mix and match and mismatch of signs and signals that to someone from ten years ago, it probably looks as bad as those ransom notes did.

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luni, 16 decembrie 2013

7 Days of Complimentary Downloads: 100,000 Graphics and Images

Seth's Blog : The care and feeding (and shunning) of vampires

The care and feeding (and shunning) of vampires

More Recent Articles

duminică, 15 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Soft tissue

Soft tissue

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 14 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Marking the One-Year Anniversary of the Tragic Shooting in Newtown, Connecticut

Seth's Blog : The semiotics of type

The semiotics of type

More Recent Articles

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