joi, 26 decembrie 2013

rubodjrmx: "Bobobo - Capitulo 58 - Castellano - Español" and more videos

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Seth's Blog : My most popular blog posts this year

 

My most popular blog posts this year

...weren't my best ones.

As usual, the most popular music wasn't the best recorded this year either. Same for the highest-grossing movies, restaurants and politicians doing fundraising.

"Best" is rarely the same as "popular."

Which means that if you want to keep track of doing your best work, you're going to have to avoid the distraction of letting the market decide if you've done a good job or not.

       

 

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pettis on Debt, Malinvestments, Hidden Losses, and China's GDP

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 11:24 PM PST

Heading into 2014, Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets remains adamant that growth estimates for China are too high and that rebalancing (while necessary), implies lower growth than most expect. Via email ...
It is widely acknowledged that perhaps the most important reason to change the Chinese growth model is its excessive reliance on debt to generate growth. Debt has soared in recent years, to the point where many economists simply look at credit growth in the current quarter in order to determine what GDP growth over the next few quarters are likely to be.

But as China deleverages, growth in demand must drop sharply. After all, if economic growth over the past several years has been goosed by rapid credit expansion, deleveraging must have the opposite effect. It is strange that economists who acknowledge that the current growth model is overly dependent on debt have failed to understand that its reversal will have the opposite impact. If it did not, it is hard to explain why anyone would consider debt to be a problem in the first place.

If China currently has wasted significant amounts of investment spending, it is clear that much of the accompanying bad debt has not been written down correctly. Bad loans are almost non-existent in the banking system – that is they have not been recognized in the form of reserves or write-downs.

But the failure to recognize the loss does not mean that the loss does not exist. The losses implicit in the bad loans must (and will) be written down over the future, either explicitly, in which case they will result in a direct deduction to GDP growth, or implicitly, in which case they will require implicit and hidden transfers from one part of the economy or another (usually the household sector) to cover the gap between the "real" cost of capital and the nominal (subsidized) cost of capital. This transfer must reduce future growth.

The point here is that if credit is a problem in China – something no one doubts – it must be a problem because of wasted investment that has yet to be recognized, otherwise it would have resulted in negative GDP growth today. Failure to recognize the investment losses will, of course, artificially boost GDP growth today, but it must also artificially reduce GDP growth tomorrow as the recognition of those losses is simply postponed, not eliminated. The failure of many economists to recognize that wasted investment has a cost – even as they recognize that investment has been wasted – has caused them both to misunderstand the relationship between wealth creation and GDP and to understate the future impact of this overstated GDP.

Debt matters, and the only time it can be safely ignored is when debt levels are so low, and the borrower is so credible, that it creates no financial distress costs and has a negligible impact on demand. Neither condition applies in China, and so any prediction that ignores debt is likely to be hopelessly muddled. In fact I would like to propose a simple rule. Any model that predicts China's future GDP growth must include, if it is to be valid, a variable that reflects estimates of the amount of hidden losses buried in the banks' balance sheets. If it does not, it cannot possibly be a valid model to describe China's economy, and its predictions are useless.

China's astonishing growth during the past three decades is partly the result of a system that subsidized growth with hidden transfers from the household sector. These transfers are at the root of the current imbalances, and once reversed, so that China can rebalance its economy towards healthier and more sustainable sources of demand, the very processes that turbocharged growth will no longer do so.

If growth has been healthy and sustainable, there would be no need for Beijing to change its growth model – in fact it would be foolish to do so. If growth has not been healthy and sustainable, this is almost certainly because it has been artificially propped up, and if the reforms are aimed at unwinding the mechanisms that artificially propped up growth, then subsequent growth rates must be substantially lower.

Low interest rates, low wages, an undervalued currency, nearly unlimited access to credit for state-owned enterprises, a relaxed attitude to environmental degradation, and other related conditions were both the source of China's ferocious growth as well as of China's unprecedented economic imbalances. Reversing these conditions will rebalance the economy, but will do so while lowering growth in the obverse way that these conditions had accelerated growth.

One of the most obvious places in which to see this is in excess capacity in a wide range of businesses. It is clear that Beijing recognizes the problem of excess capacity. Here is Xinhua on the subject: Tackling excess capacity will be one of the top tasks on China's economic agenda in 2014, as the issue becomes a major challenge to maintaining the pace and quality of economic growth. "The Chinese economy still faces downward pressure next year," the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out on Friday, citing the capacity issue weighing down some sectors as one of the major challenges facing the world's second-largest economy.

It should be obvious that building excess manufacturing capacity, like building up inventory, is a way of propping up growth numbers today at the expense of tomorrow's growth numbers. Closing down excess manufacturing capacity must be negative for growth in the same way that building it was positive.

These three conditions, which are the automatic consequences of the reform process – deleveraging, writing down unrecognized investment losses, and reversing policies that goosed growth rates – must lead to much slower growth. In theory these conditions can be counterbalanced by an explosion in productivity unleashed by the reforms.

But this is unlikely to be the case. For the net impact of the reforms on growth to leave China's GDP growth unchanged, or even to accelerate, the amount of productivity that must be unleashed by the reforms is implausibly, even extraordinarily, high. What is more, the positive impact on productivity must emerge almost immediately. Longer-term productivity improvements – for example those generated by education, land, and hukou reforms, or reforms to the one-child policy, or a speedier and more efficient urbanization process – do not count.

I am so convinced that the implementing of these reforms must result in slower growth – if only because it is impossible to find a single relevant case in history in which the adjustment following a growth miracle did not include an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in growth – that I would propose that we can judge the forceful implementation of the reforms inversely with GDP growth. If China is able to impose an orderly adjustment quickly, its GDP growth rate will slow substantially for several years.

GDP growth rates of 7% or more, on the other hand, will suggest that credit is still rising too quickly and that China has otherwise been unable to implement the reforms, in which case China is likely to reach debt capacity constraints more quickly. Growth of 7% for the next few years, in other words, is almost prima facie evidence that China is not adjusting.

-------

I wish my readers a great 2014. This will be the last issue of 2013 before the holidays. Next year promises to be an exciting and unsettling one. Stay tuned.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Darlene Love - Christmas Wish

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 02:39 PM PST

Darlene Love has been appearing on the David Letterman Show every Christmas week since 1986, always singing the same song, 'Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)'. I watched most of them. I caught the 2013 version this year as well.

She is one of my favorite "girl group" singers from the 60's



1986 Rendition 

The productions now are quite spectacular vs. 1986. Here is the 1986 rendition.



Broadway World has many interesting details.
The legendary Darlene Love, who's become a Late Show with David Letterman holiday staple, returned to the hit show this week for her annual performance of "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" with Paul Shaffer. Love, who's appeared in Broadway's HAIRSPRAY and GREASE, first took to Letterman's stage in 1986.

From her first number one recording, "He's A Rebel," through her string of label hits with legendary producer Phil Spector, including "Da Doo Ron Ron," "He's Sure The Boy I'm Gonna Marry," and "Christmas Baby Please Come Home" to the countless songs she sang backup on for artists like Sam Cooke, Elvis Presley, Dionne Warwick, Cher,Luther Vandross and Aretha Franklin, Darlene Love is still blazing a trail of success in the music industry and has been nominated to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Her albums include Age of Miracles, recorded live in New York City, her first gospel album; Unconditional Love released by Harmony records.

Over the course of her career Darlene has been hailed as one of the greatest singers in pop music by such music legends as Cher, Better Midler and the legendary Luther Vandross. She has proven herself a talented actress as well on stage and screen, starring as Danny Glover's wife in all of the Lethal Weapon films and lighting-up Broadway in such musicals as Grease and the Tony Award-nominated Leader of the Pack. Darlene also starred for three years on Broadway as Motormouth Maybelle in the Tony Award-winning musical Hairspray.
Wikipedia notes
Darlene Love (Wright; born July 26, 1941) is an American popular music singer and actress. She gained prominence in the 1960s for the song "He's a Rebel," a No. 1 American single in 1962, and was one of the Phil Spector artists who produced a celebrated Christmas album in 1963.

She appears in the documentary film 20 Feet From Stardom (2013), which premiered at the Sundance Film Festival.

Early career

She began singing with her local church choir in Hawthorne, California. While still in high school (1959) she was invited to join a little-known girl group called The Blossoms, who in 1962 began working with producer Phil Spector. With her powerful voice she was soon a highly sought-after vocalist, and managed to work with many of the legends of 1950s and 1960s rock and soul, including Sam Cooke, Dionne Warwick, The Beach Boys, Elvis Presley, Tom Jones and Sonny and Cher; Darlene and the Blossoms sang back-up vocals on the Shelley Fabares hit "Johnny Angel", Sharon Marie (Esparza) (a Brian Wilson act), as well as John Phillips' solo album John, Wolfking of L.A., recorded in 1969. They also appeared on Johnny Rivers' hits, including "Poor Side of Town" and Motown covers "Baby I Need Your Loving" and "The Tracks of My Tears". (The Blossoms recorded singles, usually with little success, on Capitol 1957-58 [pre-Darlene Love], Challenge 1961-62, OKeh 1963, Reprise 1966-67, Ode 1967, MGM 1968, Bell 1969-70, and Lion 1972.)

Hurriedly recorded and released by Spector in November 1962 under the name of The Crystals in order to get his version of the Gene Pitney song onto the market before that of Vikki Carr, the single "He's a Rebel" actually featured Love singing lead for the first time on a Spector recording, backed by The Blossoms. The ghost release of this single came as a total surprise to The Crystals who were an experienced and much traveled girl harmony group in their own right, but they were nevertheless required to perform and promote the new single on television and on tour as if it were their own. The less successful "He's Sure The Boy I Love" was the only other release by Spector under the name of The Crystals which featured Love on vocals again backed by the Blossoms.

Subsequently Love recorded "Today I Met The Boy I'm Gonna Marry" which was released as a single by Spector, and now featured Love's name as the artist. She says that Spector offered $3,000 for her rights to the song. And though he said it was going to be a hit, she took the money. But, in spite of that decision, she said that she has continued to have a career because people have loved hearing her sing her songs. She was also part of a trio called Bob B. Soxx & the Blue Jeans, who recorded a cover version of "Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah", an Oscar-winning song from the 1946 Walt Disney film, Song of the South, which got into the Top 10 in 1963. The Blossoms landed a weekly part on Shindig!, one of the top music shows of the era. They were part of the highly acclaimed Elvis Presley's '68 Comeback Special, which aired on NBC.

"Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" is a song by Darlene Love from the 1963 holiday compilation album, A Christmas Gift for You from Phil Spector. The song was written by Jeff Barry and Ellie Greenwich, along with Phil Spector, with the intention of being sung by Ronnie Spector of The Ronettes. According to Love, Ronnie Spector was not able to put as much emotion into the song as needed. Instead, Love was brought into the studio to record the song, which became a big success over time and one of Love's signature tunes.
Wikipedia has many more details on TV, Broadway, and Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays

From Me: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 11:11 AM PST

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones. Mish
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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miercuri, 25 decembrie 2013

Wishing Everyone a Happy Holiday Season

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Seth's Blog : Thank you

 

Thank you

In 2013, more than four million people read this blog. I'd say "unique people," but that's redundant. Each of you is as unique as they come.

Every day, I'm grateful for a chance to share an idea, strategy or challenge with you. I appreciate the attention and trust of my readers, it would be impossible to do this without you.

Your generosity continues to pay off. To date, The Big Moo has raised more than $250,000 for three charities, including building several schools with Room to Read.

End Malaria has raised more than $300,000 to eradicate malaria in Africa.

Squidoo users have donated more than a million dollars to Acumen and other causes.

Your generous participation in other projects has raised even more.

Thank you for everything you do. Most important, thanks for living your dreams out loud, bringing generosity, insight and wonder to the work you do.

       

 

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marți, 24 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Merry Christmas From the TSA

Posted: 24 Dec 2013 06:08 PM PST

Traveling this holiday season? Whether yes or no, the TSA has 12 helpful hints about what you can and cannot carry on planes.



Link if video does not play: TSA's 12 Banned Items of Christmas

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com   
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Lawyer Advises Me "Don't Go to France"; French Pub Fined €9,000 for Using "Undeclared Labor" after Customers Returned Empties to Bar

Posted: 24 Dec 2013 11:05 AM PST

A few days ago my lawyer advised me "Don't go to France" (not that I had any plans to of course). The advise, coupled with the message "First amendment rights stop at the US border", was in reference to my November 20 article Mish Fined 8,000 Euros for Quoting French Blog.

All I did was quote a French blogger on bank leverage, and the numbers I quoted were matched by the Wall Street Journal.

Wolf Richter at the Testosterone Pit commented on Gagging Doubt: French Crackdown On French And American Bloggers Who Question Megabank Balance Sheets
The France's Financial Markets Authority (AMF) announced on Nov. 14 that its Sanctions Commission had decided to slap fines on two bloggers, Frenchman Jean-Pierre Chevallier and American Mike "Mish" Shedlock, "for having spread inexact information about the level of indebtedness" of megabank Société Générale.

The same bank, incidentally, that entered the annals of the silly when it blamed and successfully hounded a low-level trader, the hapless Jérôme Kerviel, for its €5 billion zinger of a loss during the financial crisis, while other banks blamed their toxic assets.

Digging through financial statements and coming up with conclusions that differ from those that the almighty bank serves up is just a sign of not having yet imbibed too much of its Kool-Aid.

Freedom of speech, bien sûr, somewhat, kinda. But not when it comes to French megabanks. Nope. No one is allowed to doubt anything. Are they in that bad of a shape that they cannot withstand the doubt of a blogger?

In its decision, the Sanctions Committee stated that it had jurisdiction to rule on the dissemination of inaccurate information about a financial instrument that can be traded in a regulated French market, whether or not it was disseminated in France, and regardless of whether it was disseminated by a Frenchman or a foreigner. And for the first time, the commission applied Article 632-1 of the AMF's General Regulations to information posted on the Internet by financial bloggers; it reads: "Everyone must refrain from disclosing or knowingly disseminating information, regardless of the medium used, that gives or may give inexact, inaccurate, or misleading indications about financial instruments, including spreading rumors or broadcasting false or misleading news, when that person knew, or should have known, that the information was false or misleading."

A blatant attempt to gag doubting bloggers.

Shooting Yourself in the Foot

Automatic Earth had some interesting comments in How To Fine A Fine Blogger And Shoot Yourself In The Foot in reference to the quote from Testosterone Pit.
Everyone of course should include SocGen itself, because they too "may give" inexact, inaccurate, or misleading indications. And the AFM is the only institution with the legal powers to check if SocGen's financial statements are correct. Have they? How are we to even know? By accepting SocGen's statement, the AFM makes itself a potential accomplice if any irregularities appear in that statement, either today or in the future. But they don't seem to care.

Instead, they turn around and fine two bloggers who write they think those numbers are not correct, and who might otherwise, had they not been "investigated", have been more than happy to retract their words if either SocGen or the AFM had published numbers that were both correct and transparent. Where is the AFM report on its investigation into SocGen's numbers?

SocGen will never be attacked on its statements no matter how wrong they are, simply because it is among the richest hence most powerful hence must lawyered up entities on the planet.

If the bank and/or the regulator don't like that criticism, all they need to do is to issue a press release that explains where the numbers go wrong. They don't do that. The regulator doesn't respond by investigating the numbers the banks publish, but by going after the people who question them.
French Pub Fined €9,000 for Using "Undeclared Labor"

Clearly I had enough reasons already to not go to France. Looking for more?

Please check out the latest French idiocy: French Pub Fined €9,000 for Using "Undeclared Labor" after Customers Returned Empties to Bar.
French officials have fined a pub in Brittany €9,000 for "undeclared labour" after a customer returned some empty glasses to the bar.

Owner Markya Le Floch told Le Télégramme: "Around half-past midnight, a customer returned a drinks tray. She passed by the bar to go to the toilets. That was when it all kicked off.  My husband  was pinned against the glass by a man. A woman lept on me, showing her ID card and that's when I realised it was a URSSAF check. They told me I had been caught using undeclared labour."

The authorities initially fined the pub owners €7,900 and briefly placed them in police custody. Customers vouched for the owners and they escaped charges, but URSSAF are still pursuing a social case and are now seeking €9,000 due to non-payment of the original fine. 
France is acting like some third-world basket case, and the stories get more ridiculous over time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Economic Illiterate Proposal: "Inflation Creates Jobs"; Inflation Economics 101

Posted: 24 Dec 2013 01:09 AM PST

Those looking for economically illiterate proposals can have a field day reading Ezra Klein's "Wonkblog" on the Washington Post.

In Full Employment Gives People Jobs Klein states (citing two others) "The Federal Reserve Bank's focus on keeping inflation below 2 percent effectively sacrifices the other half of its dual mandate: full employment."

It's difficult to know where to start debating such economic lunacy, but let's briefly discuss the notion of a "dual mandate".

Dual Mandate Equals Mission Impossible

Here's the deal.

1. The Fed can control money supply but it will have no control over interest rates (or anything else).

2. The Fed can control short-term interest rates, but then it would have no control over money supply (or anything else).

That is the full and complete extent of the Fed's "control". Note that neither price stability nor unemployment is in either equation. The reason is the Fed controls neither.

That is a mathematical certainty, yet people have preposterous beliefs that the somehow the Fed can not only control inflation but also unemployment.

If the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the ECB, or the Bank of England, or the central bank of China could control the unemployment rate, rest assured they would have done so long ago.

The economic illiterates will point out the unique nature of the Fed's dual mandate, but I will counter with the mathematical stupidity of such an idea.

At best, the Fed can control (using the word loosely) a maximum of one thing at at time, and employment is not one of those things.

Does Inflation Create Jobs?

If inflation creates jobs, where are the jobs right now in Venezuela? Where were they in Zimbabwe? Argentina?

No doubt the economic illiterates will state "wait a minute, we don't want massive inflation, just the right amount of inflation".

But depending on which economic illiterate you ask, the alleged "right" amount of inflation may be 2%, 3%, 4%, or even higher.

So the debate rages "what is the right amount of inflation?"

The debate itself is economic insanity. Inflation does not and cannot create jobs in the long term.

Inept Monetarist Choir

In the short term, inflation can create the illusion of economic prosperity, but Klein and his monetarist choir cannot manage to see their own noses even while looking in a mirror.

Yes, inflation helped create a massive housing boom. Builders employed like mad. Speculators built condo towers in Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and numerous cities in California. It was a grand party. All based on inflation.

Then the bubble burst. Then a consortium of economic jackasses came along saying we need more inflation (as if the cure was the same as the disease). The Fed tried, and tried and tried. However, the Fed did not create enough inflation to satisfy the monetarist jackasses, but it did create bubbles in stocks and bonds.

Benefits flowed to the banks, the corporations, and the already wealthy. That gave rise to still more economic lunacy regarding income distribution.

Inflation Economics 101

Ezra Klein needs to brush up on inflation economics 101. I have a simple, easy to understand crash course.


Practical Examples

Economic illiterates will tell you that deflation (for this example defined as falling prices) is a bad thing. They will tell you that when prices fall, people will delay purchases waiting for still more falling prices, and then consumers will not buy goods and employment will drop and a downward economic spiral will ensue.

That is the theory of people in ivory towers who read books and articles by economists who cannot find their ass with two hands and a road map.

If falling prices stopped people from buying goods, no computers, TVs, monitors, or electronic goods would have been purchased for years.

Just yesterday I bought a 27 inch high-end NEC monitor for $800. It was one of the top-rated monitors for digital photography display that I could find.

It beats hands down my Dell 24 inch monitor I bought a few years ago for $2400. Will monitors be better and cheaper next year. Of course. Did that make me wait? Not in the slightest.

Lower Prices Spur Sales

People hold on to things when replacement costs are high. Lower prices, not higher ones, spur sales. Sales spur employment!

Think about cars. If prices dropped 20% would that spur cars sales? I think so. If you could replace your aging car 20% cheaper and it had more features, would you do so?

What if they rose 20%? My guess is that, all thing being equal, car sales would plunge

All Things Never Equal

Not to fear, socialist fools don't want all things to be equal. They want prices and wages to go up. Well, history shows, and Klein even has charts to prove it, that wages have not risen with prices.

To compensate for the fact that wages have not kept up with inflation, socialists and monetarists want higher minimum wages. They also want inflation targets and they expect businesses to pay more in wages than prices go up!

How do businesses respond? They outsource or replace humans with software and hardware robots that do not complain about minimum wages.

In short, Klein proposes exactly more of the same policies that caused the massive rise in income inequality in the first place. His solution is more government controls, more Fed controls, and more command-economy nonsense similar to what sunk the Soviet Union.

The Real Problem

The problem is not falling prices, but rather the inability to pay back debt as prices fall. The irony is inflation encourages more and more debt, with bubbles of increasing magnitude over time. And each time the bubbles burst, complete fools shout for more of the same policies that caused the bubbles.

I propose getting rid of economic jackasses at the Fed and in Government. I propose falling prices are a good thing. Who doesn't want falling prices (except of course in asset prices). And who owns the bulk of the assets? Here's a hint: It's not those who Klein thinks will be helped by more inflation.

Unfortunately, Klein is more likely to get his way than I am my way. As a direct result, expect more  bitching from Klein and others in his camp about rising income inequality. Also expect more inane inflation proposals that will destroy still more jobs and the middle class.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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