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6 Predictions for the Marketing World in 2014 |
6 Predictions for the Marketing World in 2014 Posted: 05 Jan 2014 02:45 PM PST Posted by randfish It's time, once again, to continue my annual tradition of analyzing my predictions from 2013, and if I score high enough, predicting what will happen in 2014. I use this process because it keeps me honest, and keeps you informed as to my relative levels of accuracy (or failure). Here's how scoring works:
If the score is positive, I'm at least somewhat good at this, and if it's negative, I'm clearly losing the pulse of the industry. Let's see how I did! In 2013, I made 10 predictions. They were: #1: None of the potential threats to Google's domination of search will make even a tiny dent According to the Statcounter data (the only source I really trust), this one's definitely true. Google has maintained ~80% of search in the US, and ~90%+ around the world. +2 points #2: "Inbound marketing" will be in more titles and job profiles as "SEO" becomes too limiting for many professionals In early January of 2013, "inbound marketing" was used on 18,965 LinkedIn profiles. 12 months later, it's up to 39,860, a growth rate of 2.1X. Meanwhile, "SEO" was in 716,933 profiles and is now in 1,268,169 profiles, a growth rate of 1.7X. The SimplyHired data shows "inbound marketing" making up ground and nearly catching "SEO" in job listings, but for a spike in "SEO" at the end of the year. I could be lenient and award myself a point since "inbound marketing" did grow faster than "SEO," but I don't think that captures the spirit. Instead, I'm giving myself a -1 because SEO clearly is not becoming too limiting for most, and is still growing fast (though less quickly than in years past). This is a trend that I might expect to see more of in future years, though. -1 point #3: More websites will move away from Google Analytics as the only provider of web visitor tracking The data from Builtwith suggests that this one is right on the mark. Here's Mixpanel, Piwik, Hubspot, and Omniture, and here's Google Analytics (whose growth has stagnated, though it is still clearly more popular than any of the others by a very wide margin). +2 points #4: Google+ will continue to grow in 2013, but more slowly than in 2012 Technically, this one is true from a growth rate perspective (data via SELand), but from a number of users one, 2013 was actually very similar to 2012, so I'm giving myself -1 point #5: App store search will remain largely ignored by marketers Anecdotal data would seem to suggest this has been the case, and that's supported by search trends. There was a slight increase in job postings around "app store marketing," but the volume is so low, it's hard to tell if that's a single company or two putting up a couple jobs and impacting the numbers. Given the extremely low LinkedIn numbers (only 118 profiles list "app store marketing" and 59 list "app store SEO") and the shockingly small amount of blog posts on the topic, I think we can call this one. +2 points #6: Facebook (and maybe Twitter, too) will make substantive efforts to expose new, meaningful data to brands that let them better track the ROI of both advertising and organic participation Facebook has continued to add more features and data to their advertising platform and brand pages, but it's hard to call it wholly meaningful. Twitter, however, did introduce more data for their advertisers, expanded the advertising options, and now sends some nice metrics via emails to account holders (regardless of advertising status). However, it's hard to call any of these truly substantive or incredibly meaningful. -1 point #7: Google will introduce more protocols like the meta keywords for Google News, rel author for publishers, etc. This one would appear to be dead wrong. After the rel=publisher and rel=prev/next tags, we haven't seen a truly broad-base new expansion in this arena from Google. -2 points #8: The social media tool market will continue a trend of shrinkage and consolidation In 2010 and 2011, we saw a significant amount of activity in the social media software/tool/app market. In 2012, that trend very clearly continued. But 2013 didn't see quite as many high profile transactions. We saw acquisitions of Topsy, Swaylo, Bluefin Labs, Semantelli, Sportstream, and Trendrr which may be enough to technically fulfill the criteria of continued consolidation. but don't suggest a truly observable trend. -1 point #9: Co-occurrence of brands/websites and keyword terms/phrases will be proven to have an impact on search engine rankings through correlation data, specific experiments, and/or both The correlation data on this was interesting, but not wholly convincing. Then Google released Hummingbird, and the signs Bill Slawski pointed to in his posts on query refinement/substitution seemed even more prescient. That said, it's hard to say we've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that co-occurrence impacts rankings. There's been no word from Google themselves (though plenty of hints), though the descriptions of how Hummingbird changes relevancy is a strong point in favor of this data. I wish we'd seen more experiments on this, but since the impact is still at least somewhat unproven, I'm going with -1 point #10: We'll witness a major transaction (or two) in the inbound marketing field, potentially rivaling the iCrossing acquisition in size and scope Oracle buying Responsys for $1.39 Billion is, obviously, huge. And earlier this year, Salesforce purchased ExactTarget for $2.5 Billion. Those two alone are good enough to call this one a win. +2 points -------------------------- Grand total: 8 - 7 = +1 aka barely good enough to continue making predictions for 2014 Looking back, I think my predictions were a little conservative. This year, I'm going to go out on a few more limbs and be a bit more specific. #1: Twitter Will Go Facebook's Route and Create Insights-Style Pages for At Least Some Non-Advertising AccountsI'd expect to see them start testing this with some verified accounts, possibly for big brand advertisers, and then roll it out more broadly. With Twitter going public, it makes tremendous sense for the social site to encourage greater participation of higher quality amongst their high profile users. #2: We Will See Google Test Search Results with no External, Organic ListingsAs Google continues to get more and more aggressive with things like knowledge graph, visual ads, and instant answers, I suspect we'll see some of the first result sets that have no traditional, external-pointing, organic links whatsoever. Google may keep some links as references to the source they're bringing in, but they won't be in the classic organic results format we've seen from them over the last 15 years. Side note: This will scare the poop out of many marketers, but it probably (hopefully?) won't expand much beyond the experimental/limited release phase. #3: Google Will Publicly Acknowledge Algorithmic Updates Targeting Both Guest Posting and Embeddable Infographics/Badges as Manipulative Linking PracticesThe search giant will continue to say that many forms of guest authorship and embeddable content are legitimate and worthy ways of marketing, but they'll take a public stab at removing the value passed by many of the seedier, less editorial forms of these tactics. I'm really looking forward to this, because I think these are some of the last bastions of gray-hat spamminess that make the SEO profession and SEO practices seem less legitimate to business owners of all stripes. My hope is that when Google does this, they're harsh enough with the algorithmic effects to knock a lot of manipulative sites/pages out of the top rankings, but don't go beyond removal of link value into a penalization realm (since lots of very legitimate sites and businesses have, rightfully, presumed these tactics to be above board and employed them). IMO, making this part of the Penguin series of updates would be too punitive on a lot of sites that don't deserve to rank lower simply for having done this in the past. #4: One of these 5 Marketing Automation Companies Will Be Purchased in the 9-10 figure $ range: Hubspot, Marketo, Act-On, SilverPop, or SailthruMarketing automation is very hot, and analysts are already placing bets on Marketo being a target. I'm betting on one of these five companies because they're at a scale to offer a potential buyer competition with Salesforce and Oracle (who bought ExactTarget & Responsys, respectively). #5: Resumes Listing "Content Marketing" Will Grow Faster than Either SEO or "Social Media Marketing"Content marketing is undeniably hot right now, and companies are making investments at a pace I haven't seen since the social media marketing craze of 2008-2010. Currently, LinkedIn shows:
I'm predicting that, in percentage growth terms, "content marketing" will have a growth rate of 0.5X or higher more than either of the others. More marketers are going to start using the terminology that's catching on with businesses big and small. #6: There Will Be More Traffic Sent by Pinterest than Twitter in Q4 2014 (in the US)Pinterest is an odd one. They haven't been growing user numbers as fast as some in the space expected, but the intensity of sharing is unparalleled, and the growth rates for sharing are, too. For some types of sites (e.g. specific sets of content publishers) Pinterest is #2 behind only Facebook for social traffic referrals. I'm predicting that in the 4th quarter of next year, heavy consumer use will lead to Pinterest driving more traffic, overall, than Twitter. Now I just have to hope someone produces a report that can help verify that claim. -------------------------- That's all for this year's predictions. Please do share your own in the comments below. Happy 2014 to all! Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read! |
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You will.
The answer to the what if question is, you will.
A better question might be, "after I fail, what then?"
Well, if you've chosen well, after you fail you will be one step closer to succeeding, you will be wiser and stronger and you almost certainly be more respected by all of those that are afraid to try.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Illegal Immigrant Can Practice Law in US Says California Court Posted: 05 Jan 2014 08:13 PM PST Those looking for absolute absurdity in California at the start of the new year did not have to wait long. CNN reports No green card? No problem -- undocumented immigrant can practice law, court says. Sergio Garcia's parents brought him to the United States from Mexico nearly two decades ago. He's been waiting for a green card ever since.My take: This person should not be in the US, should never have been allowed to go to college in the US without a Green Card, and should not be allowed to practice law. FOX News has a Video on Sergio Garcia that inquiring minds may wish to play. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 05 Jan 2014 10:48 AM PST The war in Iraq cost the lives of 4,489 Americans, with another 51,778 wounded. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were killed or injured. We wasted over a trillion dollars in the process. Why? To remove Saddam Hussein. Hussein was a brutal dictator, but that battle clearly was not ours. And at least under Hussein, religious freedom existed. It doesn't now. Chaldean Catholics are targeted and killed simply because they are Catholic. There were no Al Qaeda forces in Iraq either. Hussein, a secular dictator, had no use for them. Now, following the war Al Qaeda operates openly. They even control the town of Fallujah. Please consider Iraq Forces May Soon Start Attack to Recapture Fallujah. Iraqi security forces, militias or tribesmen may soon start an attack to retake the city of Fallujah from al-Qaeda-linked militants, a government official said.War in Iraq a complete Failure Iraq was NEVER a US battle. Strike that. Iraq SHOULD NEVER have been a US battle. But it was. And we made things far worse for Iraq and the entire Mideast region thanks to war-mongering fools in the WhiteHouse. Militarily, the US defeated Hussein, but we lost the far more important battle for hearts and minds, not just in Iraq, but also Pakistan, because of our inane drone policy that has taken the lives of thousands of civilians, including children. US is Biggest Threat to World Peace It's absolutely no wonder a Gallup Poll shows the US is the Biggest Threat to World Peace. In their annual End of Year poll, researchers for WIN and Gallup International surveyed more than 66,000 people across 65 nations and found that 24 percent of all respondents answered that the United States "is the greatest threat to peace in the world today." Pakistan and China fell significantly behind the United States on the poll, with 8 and 6 percent, respectively. Afghanistan, Iran, Israel and North Korea all tied for fourth place with 4 percent.Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Everyone who eats at your restaurant expects a good cup of coffee, and it's difficult to wow them, because, of course, your competition is working to do the same thing.
But of course, it's not everyone who wants a cup of coffee. Some want a cup of tea, or a cup of herbal tea, and those folks are used to being ignored, or handed an old Lipton tea bag, or something boring.
What if you had thirty varieties for them to choose from?
Everyone who stays at your hotel expects the same sort of service, and it's difficult to wow them, because, of course, your competition is working to do the same thing.
But of course, it's not everyone. Some people travel with their dogs, and they're used to being disrespected. What if you gave those people a choice of a dozen dog toys, three dog beds and a special dog run out back?
When you delight the weird, the overlooked and the outliers, they are significantly more likely to talk about you and recommend you.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Fed Admits It's Clueless How QE Works; Radical Suggestion Posted: 04 Jan 2014 06:07 PM PST Inquiring minds are investigating three articles from today, stating opinions of three different Fed governors. Boston Fed President Against Tapering Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren says Rapid QE withdrawal could permanently harm U.S. workers A dovish U.S. central banker on Saturday again urged the Federal Reserve to be patient as it trims its support for the economy, in part because it risks permanent damage to the labor market.Plosser at Odds with Yellen's Approach Yahoo!Finance reports Fed's Plosser at odds with policy approach favored by Yellen. The Great Recession could have done permanent damage to potential U.S. output, a top Federal Reserve official said on Saturday, taking an indirect shot at more cyclical approaches to policy-making that is favored by many economists, including the next Fed chair.Dudley Admits He's Unclear How QE Works Rounding out our trio of articles from today, please consider Still unclear exactly how QE eases conditions: Fed's Dudley. Extensive research into massive asset-purchase programs has not yet clarified whether such policies ease financial conditions primarily as a signal to investors or more directly through private portfolios, an influential U.S. central banker said on Saturday.Radical Suggestion While these Fed governors are grasping at straws in a tornado bickering over whether to taper or not, let me propose a simple idea: The Fed cannot figure out how QE works because QE doesn't work. Two decades of Japanese QE is sufficient proof. In the US, the Fed did ignite massive stock and bond market bubbles, but who in their right mind thinks bubbles are a measure of success? All of the Fed's modeling is nothing more than a chasing one's tail exercise of economic stupidity. Simply put, the Fed is nothing more than a bunch of Soviet-style central planners with inflated opinions about what they can or cannot do. If the Fed came out tomorrow and stated it would set the price of orange juice, everyone would think the Fed was insane. And they would be correct. Yet amazingly, people think the Fed can set the correct interest rate policy and the correct monetary easing policy, not only to control the proper amount of inflation, but to manage unemployment as well, even though the central planners themselves readily admit they are clueless as to how their policies even work! If that's not a bubble belief in wizard fools, what is? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 04 Jan 2014 09:23 AM PST In a rare vote in favor of common sense and local jobs, Boeing machinists Approve Contract securing 777X jet manufacture in Washington state. Boeing's machinists on Friday narrowly approved a crucial labor contract that secured thousands of jobs and billions of dollars of economic activity for Washington state but will cost workers their pensions.Common Sense Vote Boeing secured a no-strike agreement that lasts until 2024. As part of the plan, workers will shift from defined benefit plans to defined contribution (IRA-type) pension plans. Those are huge union concessions. But the all important counterbalancing force is people keep their jobs. 10,000 or so jobs stay in the region. Simply put, this was the best possible result for Boeing workers in the Seattle area. Shocking Result The result is unusual in that unions seldom do what is best for workers. It is even more unusual because local union leadership was staunchly against the agreement. This was a rare case in which Contract Debate Divides Union Leadership On a local union poster were the words ... "We need every member to stand with us in solidarity, and just say no to this takeaway offer. We are under a great deal of pressure to give up our pension, pay dramatically more in healthcare costs, and stagnate wage growth so we have less take-home pay going forward. We are asked to accept less when Boeing has record profits, record backlogs and approved a $10 billion stock buy back. Machinists stand ready to build the 777X. We are the key to a successful 777X future. Rejecting this concessionary offer, does not diminish all the advantages of building the plane here. Our current wages and benefits are less than 5 percent of airplane costs without these concessions. Vote no and tell Boeing to focus on building the 777X here because analysts, customers and shareholders agree — that is the right choice!"Heads, Not Hearts Union workers voted with their heads, not their hearts, in approving the deal. 10,000 immediate jobs would have been lost had they not done so. Countless other local jobs (restaurants, hotel, limo, etc) jobs would been lost in the process. Of course, Seattle's loss would have been some other region's gain. In the grand scheme of things it seems to even out. But it doesn't. There are huge moving costs and huge disruptions on local economies. Win-Win All things considered, this vote was a huge win for Boeing as well as the local employees. Congratulations to the union for ignoring tremendous pressure from local union leadership. That said, the local "scorched earth" plan of opposition was so horrendous, one might wonder why the vote was close at all. Had the jobs left Washington state, none of them would have been union jobs. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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