luni, 6 ianuarie 2014

Must see: The best photos of 2013

The White House Monday, January 6, 2014
 

Must see: The best photos of 2013

The White House Photography Office picked out some of the best photos from the past year to give you an inside look at the presidency -- and some of the best moments from 2013.

Here's what you can expect:

  • President Obama singing Happy Birthday to First Lady Michelle Obama
  • Lots of Sunny and Bo
  • Visiting South Africa to honor Nelson Mandela
  • Some very adorable kids with the President

You're going to want to see this one.

Click here to check out our best photos from 2013.

Our best photos

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The Year in Pictures

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

The Year in Pictures

Each January, Pete Souza, Chief Official White House Photographer and Director of the White House Photography Office, pulls together his favorite images from the past 12 months. Check it out for an exclusive perspective of everything from Presidential trips and events, to personal moments between President Obama and his family.

Take a look at 2013 through a unique lens.

2013 in Photos

 

 

  Top Stories


Weekly Address: Time to Pass Bipartisan Legislation to Extend Emergency Unemployment Insurance

In this week's address, President Obama said Congress should act to extend emergency unemployment insurance for more than one million Americans who have lost this vital economic lifeline while looking for a job.

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West Wing Week 01/03/14: Best of the West (Wing Week) 2013

As we move into 2014 we'd like to take a quick look back with you at some of our favorite moments, large and small from the 2013 White House video library. There was quite a bit to choose from, but we were able to narrow it down to 10. 

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New Health Insurance Options, New Consumer Protections in the New Year

January 1st marked a new day for the millions of Americans who finally have the security that comes from quality, affordable health coverage. And those who already have health insurance will have better, more reliable coverage than ever before. From now on, insured Americans won't be forced to put off a check-up or worry about going broke if they get sick.

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  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

11:00 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:45 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WATCH LIVE

2:00 PM: The President meets with senior advisors

3:00 PM: The Vice President ceremonially swears-in Mel Watt as Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency


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6 Predictions for the Marketing World in 2014

6 Predictions for the Marketing World in 2014


6 Predictions for the Marketing World in 2014

Posted: 05 Jan 2014 02:45 PM PST

Posted by randfish

It's time, once again, to continue my annual tradition of analyzing my predictions from 2013, and if I score high enough, predicting what will happen in 2014. I use this process because it keeps me honest, and keeps you informed as to my relative levels of accuracy (or failure).

Here's how scoring works:

  • Spot On (+2) - when a prediction hits the nail on the head and the primary criteria are fulfilled
  • Partially Accurate (+1) - predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
  • Not Completely Wrong (-1) - those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
  • Off the Mark (-2) - guesses which didn't come close

If the score is positive, I'm at least somewhat good at this, and if it's negative, I'm clearly losing the pulse of the industry. Let's see how I did!

In 2013, I made 10 predictions. They were:

#1: None of the potential threats to Google's domination of search will make even a tiny dent

According to the Statcounter data (the only source I really trust), this one's definitely true. Google has maintained ~80% of search in the US, and ~90%+ around the world. +2 points

#2: "Inbound marketing" will be in more titles and job profiles as "SEO" becomes too limiting for many professionals

In early January of 2013, "inbound marketing" was used on 18,965 LinkedIn profiles. 12 months later, it's up to 39,860, a growth rate of 2.1X. Meanwhile, "SEO" was in 716,933 profiles and is now in 1,268,169 profiles, a growth rate of 1.7X. The SimplyHired data shows "inbound marketing" making up ground and nearly catching "SEO" in job listings, but for a spike in "SEO" at the end of the year.

I could be lenient and award myself a point since "inbound marketing" did grow faster than "SEO," but I don't think that captures the spirit. Instead, I'm giving myself a -1 because SEO clearly is not becoming too limiting for most, and is still growing fast (though less quickly than in years past). This is a trend that I might expect to see more of in future years, though. -1 point

#3: More websites will move away from Google Analytics as the only provider of web visitor tracking

The data from Builtwith suggests that this one is right on the mark. Here's Mixpanel, Piwik, Hubspot, and Omniture, and here's Google Analytics (whose growth has stagnated, though it is still clearly more popular than any of the others by a very wide margin). +2 points

#4: Google+ will continue to grow in 2013, but more slowly than in 2012

Technically, this one is true from a growth rate perspective (data via SELand), but from a number of users one, 2013 was actually very similar to 2012, so I'm giving myself -1 point

#5: App store search will remain largely ignored by marketers

Anecdotal data would seem to suggest this has been the case, and that's supported by search trends. There was a slight increase in job postings around "app store marketing," but the volume is so low, it's hard to tell if that's a single company or two putting up a couple jobs and impacting the numbers. Given the extremely low LinkedIn numbers (only 118 profiles list "app store marketing" and 59 list "app store SEO") and the shockingly small amount of blog posts on the topic, I think we can call this one. +2 points

#6: Facebook (and maybe Twitter, too) will make substantive efforts to expose new, meaningful data to brands that let them better track the ROI of both advertising and organic participation

Facebook has continued to add more features and data to their advertising platform and brand pages, but it's hard to call it wholly meaningful. Twitter, however, did introduce more data for their advertisers, expanded the advertising options, and now sends some nice metrics via emails to account holders (regardless of advertising status). However, it's hard to call any of these truly substantive or incredibly meaningful. -1 point

#7: Google will introduce more protocols like the meta keywords for Google News, rel author for publishers, etc.

This one would appear to be dead wrong. After the rel=publisher and rel=prev/next tags, we haven't seen a truly broad-base new expansion in this arena from Google. -2 points

#8: The social media tool market will continue a trend of shrinkage and consolidation

In 2010 and 2011, we saw a significant amount of activity in the social media software/tool/app market. In 2012, that trend very clearly continued. But 2013 didn't see quite as many high profile transactions. We saw acquisitions of Topsy, Swaylo, Bluefin Labs, Semantelli, Sportstream, and Trendrr which may be enough to technically fulfill the criteria of continued consolidation. but don't suggest a truly observable trend. -1 point

#9: Co-occurrence of brands/websites and keyword terms/phrases will be proven to have an impact on search engine rankings through correlation data, specific experiments, and/or both

The correlation data on this was interesting, but not wholly convincing. Then Google released Hummingbird, and the signs Bill Slawski pointed to in his posts on query refinement/substitution seemed even more prescient. That said, it's hard to say we've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that co-occurrence impacts rankings. There's been no word from Google themselves (though plenty of hints), though the descriptions of how Hummingbird changes relevancy is a strong point in favor of this data. I wish we'd seen more experiments on this, but since the impact is still at least somewhat unproven, I'm going with -1 point

#10: We'll witness a major transaction (or two) in the inbound marketing field, potentially rivaling the iCrossing acquisition in size and scope

Oracle buying Responsys for $1.39 Billion is, obviously, huge. And earlier this year, Salesforce purchased ExactTarget for $2.5 Billion. Those two alone are good enough to call this one a win. +2 points

--------------------------

Grand total: 8 - 7 = +1 aka barely good enough to continue making predictions for 2014

Looking back, I think my predictions were a little conservative. This year, I'm going to go out on a few more limbs and be a bit more specific.

#1: Twitter Will Go Facebook's Route and Create Insights-Style Pages for At Least Some Non-Advertising Accounts

I'd expect to see them start testing this with some verified accounts, possibly for big brand advertisers, and then roll it out more broadly. With Twitter going public, it makes tremendous sense for the social site to encourage greater participation of higher quality amongst their high profile users.

#2: We Will See Google Test Search Results with no External, Organic Listings

As Google continues to get more and more aggressive with things like knowledge graph, visual ads, and instant answers, I suspect we'll see some of the first result sets that have no traditional, external-pointing, organic links whatsoever. Google may keep some links as references to the source they're bringing in, but they won't be in the classic organic results format we've seen from them over the last 15 years.

Side note: This will scare the poop out of many marketers, but it probably (hopefully?) won't expand much beyond the experimental/limited release phase.

#3: Google Will Publicly Acknowledge Algorithmic Updates Targeting Both Guest Posting and Embeddable Infographics/Badges as Manipulative Linking Practices

The search giant will continue to say that many forms of guest authorship and embeddable content are legitimate and worthy ways of marketing, but they'll take a public stab at removing the value passed by many of the seedier, less editorial forms of these tactics. I'm really looking forward to this, because I think these are some of the last bastions of gray-hat spamminess that make the SEO profession and SEO practices seem less legitimate to business owners of all stripes.

My hope is that when Google does this, they're harsh enough with the algorithmic effects to knock a lot of manipulative sites/pages out of the top rankings, but don't go beyond removal of link value into a penalization realm (since lots of very legitimate sites and businesses have, rightfully, presumed these tactics to be above board and employed them). IMO, making this part of the Penguin series of updates would be too punitive on a lot of sites that don't deserve to rank lower simply for having done this in the past.

#4: One of these 5 Marketing Automation Companies Will Be Purchased in the 9-10 figure $ range: Hubspot, Marketo, Act-On, SilverPop, or Sailthru

Marketing automation is very hot, and analysts are already placing bets on Marketo being a target. I'm betting on one of these five companies because they're at a scale to offer a potential buyer competition with Salesforce and Oracle (who bought ExactTarget & Responsys, respectively).

#5: Resumes Listing "Content Marketing" Will Grow Faster than Either SEO or "Social Media Marketing"

Content marketing is undeniably hot right now, and companies are making investments at a pace I haven't seen since the social media marketing craze of 2008-2010. Currently, LinkedIn shows:

  • 1,268,195 profiles with "SEO"
  • 2,767,263 profiles with "social media marketing"
  • 81,529 profiles with "content marketing"

I'm predicting that, in percentage growth terms, "content marketing" will have a growth rate of 0.5X or higher more than either of the others. More marketers are going to start using the terminology that's catching on with businesses big and small.

#6: There Will Be More Traffic Sent by Pinterest than Twitter in Q4 2014 (in the US)

Pinterest is an odd one. They haven't been growing user numbers as fast as some in the space expected, but the intensity of sharing is unparalleled, and the growth rates for sharing are, too. For some types of sites (e.g. specific sets of content publishers) Pinterest is #2 behind only Facebook for social traffic referrals.

I'm predicting that in the 4th quarter of next year, heavy consumer use will lead to Pinterest driving more traffic, overall, than Twitter. Now I just have to hope someone produces a report that can help verify that claim.

--------------------------

That's all for this year's predictions. Please do share your own in the comments below.

Happy 2014 to all!


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Seth's Blog : "But what if I fail?"

 

"But what if I fail?"

You will.

The answer to the what if question is, you will.

A better question might be, "after I fail, what then?"

Well, if you've chosen well, after you fail you will be one step closer to succeeding, you will be wiser and stronger and you almost certainly be more respected by all of those that are afraid to try.

       

 

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duminică, 5 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Illegal Immigrant Can Practice Law in US Says California Court

Posted: 05 Jan 2014 08:13 PM PST

Those looking for absolute absurdity in California at the start of the new year did not have to wait long.

CNN reports No green card? No problem -- undocumented immigrant can practice law, court says.
Sergio Garcia's parents brought him to the United States from Mexico nearly two decades ago. He's been waiting for a green card ever since.

But there's one thing the undocumented immigrant no longer has to wait for, according to a California Supreme Court ruling on Thursday: his law license.

Garcia can be admitted to California's state bar and legally practice as a lawyer there, the court ruled.

"How is Garcia supposed to uphold 'the laws of the United States' when he is, by his mere presence in this country, in violation of federal law?" CNN contributor Ruben Navarrette asks in an opinion column he wrote on the case in September. "How does he pledge to show respect for 'the courts of justice' when, for most of his life, he has lived here in defiance of the rule of law? And how can he claim that he won't 'mislead' a judge or judicial officer when living in the United States illegally requires deception on a daily basis?"

"With today's ruling, the California Supreme Court reaffirms the Committee of Bar Examiners' finding as not a political decision but rather one grounded in the law," California State Bar President Luis J. Rodriguez said in a written statement Thursday.

Case could set precedent

Critics have argued that giving Garcia a license wouldn't make sense. How can someone without legal status become licensed as a lawyer, whose job entails upholding the law?

Larry DeSha, former prosecutor for the State Bar of California, said Garcia shouldn't be given his law license because his immigration status would be in violation of a civil immigration statute and could affect his ability to represent his clients.

"In the immigration debate, we must separate the individual from the idea. The individual -- Garcia -- looks like a keeper. The idea -- that one who has lived most of his life outside the law can practice law -- is problematic," Navarrette wrote in his September column.

The Obama administration originally opposed Garcia's admission to the bar, saying that federal law demanded that legislation be enacted granting an undocumented immigrant the right to practice, according to a summary published by lawprofessors.typepad.com.

But the Justice Department backed off in November after California's governor signed a new law that did just that.

The bill, which passed in October and went into effect this week, allows the bar to admit "an applicant who is not lawfully present in the United States (who) has fulfilled the requirements for admission to practice law."
My take: This person should not be in the US, should never have been allowed to go to college in the US without a Green Card, and should not be allowed to practice law.

FOX News has a Video on Sergio Garcia that inquiring minds may wish to play.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Battle to Recapture Fallujah from Al Qaeda Forces Coming Up; War in Iraq a complete Failure; US is Biggest Threat to World Peace

Posted: 05 Jan 2014 10:48 AM PST

The war in Iraq cost the lives of 4,489 Americans, with another 51,778 wounded. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were killed or injured. We wasted over a trillion dollars in the process.

Why? To remove Saddam Hussein.

Hussein was a brutal dictator, but that battle clearly was not ours. And at least under Hussein, religious freedom existed. It doesn't now. Chaldean Catholics are targeted and killed simply because they are Catholic.

There were no Al Qaeda forces in Iraq either. Hussein, a secular dictator, had no use for them.

Now, following the war Al Qaeda operates openly. They even control the town of Fallujah.

Please consider Iraq Forces May Soon Start Attack to Recapture Fallujah.
Iraqi security forces, militias or tribesmen may soon start an attack to retake the city of Fallujah from al-Qaeda-linked militants, a government official said.

"I believe that a final combat will take place soon," Faleh al-Issawi, deputy head of the provincial council of Anbar, said by phone from Ramadi. "Fallujah city is totally controlled by militias and this extends to Garma," a town about 15 kilometers (9 miles) away.

Forty civilians have died and 186 were wounded in the fighting, al-Issawi said, citing figures from hospitals in Ramadi and Fallujah. The attacking forces may include Iraqi troops, tribesmen, or militias, he said.

The U.S. is following the events in Iraq closely and is concerned by efforts of the "terrorist Al Qaida/Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant to assert its authority in Syria as well as Iraq," State Department Deputy Spokeswoman Marie Harf said in a statement yesterday.

"We would note that a number of tribal leaders in Iraq have declared an open revolt against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant," Harf said. "We are working with the Iraqi government to support those tribes in every possible way."

Iraq's air force carried out two air strikes on Fallujah and the nearby city of Ramadi that killed 55 al-Qaeda fighters, General Ali Ghaidan, chief of the country's land forces, told al-Sumaria News. Maliki vowed to remove all "terrorist groups" from Anbar, according to a statement on his official website.

Secretary of State John Kerry earlier said the U.S. won't send troops to assist Iraq. "This is a fight that belongs to the Iraqis," Kerry told a news conference in Jerusalem today.
War in Iraq a complete Failure 

Iraq was NEVER a US battle. Strike that. Iraq SHOULD NEVER have been a US battle. But it was.

And we made things far worse for Iraq and the entire Mideast region thanks to war-mongering fools in the WhiteHouse.

Militarily, the US defeated Hussein, but we lost the far more important battle for hearts and minds, not just in Iraq, but also Pakistan, because of our inane drone policy that has taken the lives of thousands of civilians, including children.

US is Biggest Threat to World Peace 

It's absolutely no wonder a Gallup Poll shows the US is the Biggest Threat to World Peace.
In their annual End of Year poll, researchers for WIN and Gallup International surveyed more than 66,000 people across 65 nations and found that 24 percent of all respondents answered that the United States "is the greatest threat to peace in the world today." Pakistan and China fell significantly behind the United States on the poll, with 8 and 6 percent, respectively. Afghanistan, Iran, Israel and North Korea all tied for fourth place with 4 percent.

Much of the animosity toward America comes from Muslim Middle Eastern and North African nations, all located in a region most likely to be affected by American military actions over the past decade. Forty-four percent of Pakistani respondents, for instance, voted America as the most dangerous nation, despite Pakistan's acceptance of U.S. foreign aid. The Chinese and Russians rated the United States as dangerous even more than Pakistanis did, at 54 and 49 percent, respectively.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Delight the weird

 

Delight the weird

Everyone who eats at your restaurant expects a good cup of coffee, and it's difficult to wow them, because, of course, your competition is working to do the same thing.

But of course, it's not everyone who wants a cup of coffee. Some want a cup of tea, or a cup of herbal tea, and those folks are used to being ignored, or handed an old Lipton tea bag, or something boring.

What if you had thirty varieties for them to choose from?

Everyone who stays at your hotel expects the same sort of service, and it's difficult to wow them, because, of course, your competition is working to do the same thing.

But of course, it's not everyone. Some people travel with their dogs, and they're used to being disrespected. What if you gave those people a choice of a dozen dog toys, three dog beds and a special dog run out back?

When you delight the weird, the overlooked and the outliers, they are significantly more likely to talk about you and recommend you.

       

 

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sâmbătă, 4 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Fed Admits It's Clueless How QE Works; Radical Suggestion

Posted: 04 Jan 2014 06:07 PM PST

Inquiring minds are investigating three articles from today, stating opinions of three different Fed governors.

Boston Fed President Against Tapering

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren says Rapid QE withdrawal could permanently harm U.S. workers
A dovish U.S. central banker on Saturday again urged the Federal Reserve to be patient as it trims its support for the economy, in part because it risks permanent damage to the labor market.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren dissented against the central bank's landmark decision last month to reduce its bond-buying program by $10 billion to $75 billion in purchases per month. In a speech here, he repeated it was a mistake because unemployment remains too high and inflation too low.

"Policymakers have the opportunity to be patient in removing accommodation, speeding up the process of achieving both elements of the Fed's dual mandate" of maximum sustainable employment and inflation of around 2 percent, he said.
Plosser at Odds with Yellen's Approach

Yahoo!Finance reports Fed's Plosser at odds with policy approach favored by Yellen.
The Great Recession could have done permanent damage to potential U.S. output, a top Federal Reserve official said on Saturday, taking an indirect shot at more cyclical approaches to policy-making that is favored by many economists, including the next Fed chair.


Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in a speech he is skeptical of so-called "optimal control" approaches to monetary policy in which mathematical models are used to predict when things like unemployment and economic growth will return to more normal levels.

Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, who is set to take the reins at the U.S. central bank next month, has often touted this approach, including tolerating higher inflation for a short time in order to speed up the overall economic recovery.
Dudley Admits He's Unclear How QE Works

Rounding out our trio of articles from today, please consider Still unclear exactly how QE eases conditions: Fed's Dudley.
Extensive research into massive asset-purchase programs has not yet clarified whether such policies ease financial conditions primarily as a signal to investors or more directly through private portfolios, an influential U.S. central banker said on Saturday.

"We still don't have well-developed macro-models that incorporate a realistic financial sector,' William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, told an economics conference.

"We don't understand fully how large-scale asset purchase programs work to ease financial market conditions, there's still a lot of debate ..." he said. "Is it the effect of the purchases on the portfolios of private investors, or alternatively is the major channel one of signaling?"
Radical Suggestion

While these Fed governors are grasping at straws in a tornado bickering over whether to taper or not, let me propose a simple idea: The Fed cannot figure out how QE works because QE doesn't work. Two decades of Japanese QE is sufficient  proof.

In the US, the Fed did ignite massive stock and bond market bubbles, but who in their right mind thinks bubbles are a measure of success?

All of the Fed's modeling is nothing more than a chasing one's tail exercise of economic stupidity. 

Simply put, the Fed is nothing more than a bunch of Soviet-style central planners with inflated opinions about what they can or cannot do.

If the Fed came out tomorrow and stated it would set the price of orange juice, everyone would think the Fed was insane. And they would be correct.

Yet amazingly, people think the Fed can set the correct interest rate policy and the correct monetary easing policy, not only to control the proper amount of inflation, but to manage unemployment as well, even though the central planners themselves readily admit they are clueless as to how their policies even work!

If that's not a bubble belief in wizard fools, what is?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Boeing Result: Everyone Wins

Posted: 04 Jan 2014 09:23 AM PST

In a rare vote in favor of common sense and local jobs, Boeing machinists Approve Contract securing 777X jet manufacture in Washington state.
Boeing's machinists on Friday narrowly approved a crucial labor contract that secured thousands of jobs and billions of dollars of economic activity for Washington state but will cost workers their pensions.

The vote of 51 percent to 49 percent to accept the deal means Boeing Co will build its new 777X jetliner and wings in the Seattle area, where Boeing has built aircraft for more than 90 years.

Had the workers rejected the offer, Boeing would have considered making the successor to its popular 777 widebody jet elsewhere, and had received offers from 22 states interested in hosting the new factory.
Common Sense Vote

Boeing secured a no-strike agreement that lasts until 2024. As part of the plan, workers will shift from defined benefit plans to defined contribution (IRA-type) pension plans.

Those are huge union concessions. But the all important counterbalancing force is people keep their jobs. 10,000 or so jobs stay in the region.

Simply put, this was the best possible result for Boeing workers in the Seattle area.

Shocking Result

The result is unusual in that unions seldom do what is best for workers. It is even more unusual because local union leadership was staunchly against the agreement.

This was a rare case in which Contract Debate Divides Union Leadership

On a local union poster were the words ...
"We need every member to stand with us in solidarity, and just say no to this takeaway offer. We are under a great deal of pressure to give up our pension, pay dramatically more in healthcare costs, and stagnate wage growth so we have less take-home pay going forward. We are asked to accept less when Boeing has record profits, record backlogs and approved a $10 billion stock buy back. Machinists stand ready to build the 777X. We are the key to a successful 777X future. Rejecting this concessionary offer, does not diminish all the advantages of building the plane here. Our current wages and benefits are less than 5 percent of airplane costs without these concessions. Vote no and tell Boeing to focus on building the 777X here because analysts, customers and shareholders agree — that is the right choice!"

The difference in opinion between local and national leaders is unusual, but it likely arose because the national union is more concerned with keeping dues-paying members than it is evaluating the contract's terms, as experts in union politics have indicated. "The theory that this is a way to preserve IAM jobs (and therefore membership) of IAM's largest District certainly seems plausible, as Leeham Co. aviation analyst told Bloomberg via email. "I certainly can't think of another reason, and I'm sure International is hardly altruistic."
Heads, Not Hearts

Union workers voted with their heads, not their hearts, in approving the deal.

10,000 immediate jobs would have been lost had they not done so. Countless other local jobs (restaurants, hotel, limo, etc) jobs would been lost in the process.

Of course, Seattle's loss would have been some other region's gain. In the grand scheme of things it seems to even out. But it doesn't. There are huge moving costs and huge disruptions on local economies.

Win-Win

All things considered, this vote was a huge win for Boeing as well as the local employees. Congratulations to the union for ignoring tremendous pressure from local union leadership.

That said, the local "scorched earth" plan of opposition was so horrendous, one might wonder why the vote was close at all. Had the jobs left Washington state, none of them would have been union jobs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com