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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Posted: 10 Jan 2014 07:39 PM PST A tip of the hat goes to Huky Guru at Guru's Blog regarding the non-shocking announcement that "One of the rescued countries provided "misleading" information to the troika as the ECB" "In some cases, the information was incomplete, particularly in a country, even misleading at the beginning of the program," says the company chaired by Mario Draghi in the European Parliament formulated to evaluate the work of the troika questionnaire.Guru Commented "Just one country provided misleading information? And it took four years to realize?" That's pretty funny, but actually it is a sign the ECB thinks the bottom is in. That's when these kind of revelations come out. Yet, as Guru implies, it likely was every country that received a bailout, that fabricated data. Going back further still, I find it hard to believe that the ECB and the Brussels nanncrats did not know upfront that Greece was not ready for Eurozone membership, and that Greece lied on its application. And finally, regardless of what these guys think, it's highly doubtful the crisis is over. The biggest eurozone trials are yet to come. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Employment vs. Jobs Discrepancy - December 2013 Data Posted: 10 Jan 2014 01:02 PM PST The wide discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for a third month. Jobs vs. Employment Discussion Before diving into the details, it is important to understand limits on data, and how the BLS measures jobs in the establishment survey vs. employment in the household survey. Establishment Survey: If you work one hour that counts as a job. There is no difference between one hour and 50 hours. Establishment Survey: If you work multiple jobs you are counted twice. Neither the BLS nor ADP weed out duplicate social security numbers. Household Survey: If you work one hour or 80 you are employed. Household Survey: If you work a total of 35 hours you are considered a full time employee. If you work 25 hours at one job and 10 hours at another, you are a fulltime employee. Following are numbers from today's BLS jobs releases. December 2013 vs. December Prior Years
Monthly Averages December 2013 vs. December Prior Years
Notice how closely in sync the household survey has been to the establishment survey in terms of average gains or losses. A divergence developed in 2013. Here is the data I posted last month (I did not check for revisions). November 2013 vs. November Prior Years
Monthly Averages November 2013 vs. November Prior Years
Last month the discrepancy between reported employment and reported jobs was 191,000 - 92,000 = 99,000. This month the discrepancy between reported employment and reported jobs is 182,000 - 115,000 = 67,000. These discrepancies started in 2013. I asked the BLS to take multiple social security numbers into consideration. They cannot because all they have is raw counts. ADP could, but wouldn't, citing privacy issues. However, there are no privacy issues. A program would be trivial to write, but most likely one would not even have to do that. A sort utility extracting and counting duplicate social security numbers would suffice. I believe Obamacare is the reason for the discrepancy. Obamacare Effect Prior to Obamacare 34 hours worked = 1 parttime job household survey 34 hours worked = 1 job establishment survey Enter obamacare Person cut back to 25 hours and takes a second job for 10 hours Here is the new math 25 + 10 = 1 fulltime job on the household survey. 25 + 10 = 2 jobs on the establishment survey. In my example, the household survey totals up all the hours and says, voilla! (35 hours = full time). So a few extra hours that people pick up working 2 part time jobs now throws someone into full time status – thus no surge in part-time employment, but there is a surge in jobs. Establishment Survey Jobs Surge Ended This Month Interestingly, the surge in jobs in the establishment survey ended today. See Big Miss: Nonfarm Payrolls +74,000 vs. 205,000 Expected; Unemployment Rate 6.7% as Labor Force Shrinks by 347,000. Two Possibilities
If the Obamacare multiple job surge has indeed played out, monthly establishment survey job gains are going to be weaker than most expect for 2014. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Jan 2014 10:26 AM PST Those expecting an uptick in Greek GDP received some sobering news this past week. Macropolis reports Unemployment hit new high of 27.8 pct in October, set to rise further. According to the Hellenic Statistical Agency (ELSTAT), the seasonally adjusted jobless rate in October stood at 27.8 percent from an upwards revised 27.7 percent in the month of September. After the previous months' revisions, the October rate now holds the new high.Greek Industrial Production Declines 5th Consecutive Month RT reports Greek Industrial Output Downturn Worsens In November. Greece's industrial production decreased for the fifth consecutive month in November, and at a faster pace than in the previous month, with all of the major industrial sectors recording decline in activity, data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority showed Thursday.With these kinds of numbers I keep wondering how long the coalition government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras can last. Coalition Majority Reduced to Three Seats Reuters reports Fragile Greek coalition's majority shrinks Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's majority of 26 seats after last year's election has dwindled to the point where it raises the risk of political instability that could hamper recovery and Greece's ability to meet targets for its international bailout.Samaras's coalition falls when three more seats go. Polls show that opposition party Syriza would likely win the next election. Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras has vowed to scrap the country's bailout agreement as noted in Prisoner's Dilemma Game in Greece. Given Greece's current account surplus (ignoring interest on bailout debt), Greece would indeed be in a good position to default. When they do, and I believe they will, it will be interesting to watch the reactions of nannycrats in Brussels and Angela Merkel supporters in Germany. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 10 Jan 2014 08:38 AM PST Initial Reaction Once again, the stats reveal much weakness.
Clearly, this is yet another bad report, with people dropping out of the labor force like mad. Blaming the Weather Amusingly, USA Today reports that "Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics says severe winter was the main culprit behind the disappointing job gains." Did economists not know it was cold outside when they gave USA today their estimates? I guess not. December BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate
The population rose by over 2 million, but the labor force fell by over a half-million. That's your declining unemployment rate in a nutshell. Note last bullet point above. The household survey shows a gain of employment averaging a mere 114,500 a month. Meanwhile, the payroll survey shows a rise of 182,000 jobs a month. The rational explanation is a massive growth in part-time jobs. I asked the BLS to investigate this but they do not have the data. ADP has the data but denied the request citing privacy issues. There are no privacy issues - All ADP need do is take counts of people working more than one job and compare to historical trends. December 2013 Jobs Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) December 2013 Employment Report. The unemployment rate declined from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent in December, while total nonfarm payroll employment edged up (+74,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and wholesale trade but was down in information. Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted  Employment History Since January 2009  click on chart for sharper image Change from Previous Month by Job Type  Hours and Wages Average weekly hours of all private employees fell 0.1 to 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees rose 0.1 to 33.2 hours. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.05 to $20.32. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.03 to $20.12. Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security. For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution? BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey. The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total. The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance. Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way. Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions. Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012  Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013  Birth-Death Notes Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small. For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again. Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment  click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 6.7%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 13.1%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Labor Force Factors
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%. And the discrepancy between the Household Survey and the Establishment survey sticks out like a sore thumb. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investors Most Bullish in Nearly 27 Years Posted: 10 Jan 2014 07:41 AM PST Sentiment is not a timing indicator, but it is an indicator of problems. And bullish sentiment is greater today than at any time in the past 27 years according to Asbury Research. Please consider When Being Bullish Can Become Problematic. Investor sentiment is an important component of financial market analysis because it tells us what investors are collectively thinking. More specifically, when a certain type of investor gets either too bullish or too bearish on an asset, it usually means something important — that investors have become "off-sides" — and typically precedes a important trend reversal in the price of that asset.Sentiment can always get more extreme, and indeed that is how it reached higher levels than the stock market peaks in 2000 and 2007. Thus my caution "sentiment is not a timing indicator." Nonetheless, history suggests those plowing into the market today are going to regret it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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