joi, 20 februarie 2014

#MozCon 2014: Everything You Want to Know (Including the Kitchen Sink)

#MozCon 2014: Everything You Want to Know (Including the Kitchen Sink)


#MozCon 2014: Everything You Want to Know (Including the Kitchen Sink)

Posted: 19 Feb 2014 03:13 PM PST

Posted by EricaMcGillivray

MozCon is five months away! What?! And besides my daily countdown to MozCon, provided by the lovely Sha Menz, many of you out there have asked for the juicy details of what we're planning this year. This year, MozCon is July 14-16 at the Washington State Convention Center.

But before I dive further down: If you're already planning on coming to MozCon, but haven't bought your ticket (or your team's tickets), do it now! Seriously, we're already almost sold out of early bird MozCon tickets [~60 tickets left], and I know you want to have a happy wallet with a savings of $200.

For the best deal on MozCon tickets, make sure you're a Moz Pro Subscriber. If you're not, you can take a 30-day free trial with us and get the Subscriber rate for you and your teamâ€"even on trial day number one! Cancel your trial at any time if it's not for you, and we'll see you at MozCon.

Sign up for MozCon today

We say MozCon is "not your typical marketing conference," but what does that truly mean? Many of you are probably familiar with TAGFEE, our company code, which is woven tightly into MozCon. But what we really aim for is that second E, which stands for Exceptional. Not exceptional in the "really awesome" way, but exceptional as in the exception to the rule (which is in itself really awesome). We want MozCon to be the place where marketers feel the love of being part of this extraordinary community, and where you can spend three days enveloped in new knowledge and actionable information from our forward-thinking speakers to take home with you .

If that's too mushy for you, just watch the video of what happened last year. :)

It's all about meeting you!

Before I start talking about the amazing speakers or the bacon, our communityâ€"that's YOU!â€"drives the force behind MozCon. MozCon humbly started out as the SEOmoz: PRO Training Series because we wanted to meet our community and share face-to-face what we were learning about SEO. As we grew, MozCon became the place for our community to hang out with each other and the industry experts we bring in.

One of our exceptional goals has been to maintain that community camaraderie that much smaller conferences embody. I'm pleased to say that we've all leveled up to the challenge.

Roger Hugs Montage

Roger has lots of friends!

Our beloved mascot Roger joins us for every MozCon. He loves giving hugs. Sometimes he even dances around. One time, we hooked up a Kinect with a dance simulator to the main stage, and late into the lunch break, people could come on stage and dance as Roger! And then Roger danced as Roger. Seriously, you have to see it to believe it.

I'm joined by Roger, Roger, and Rand on the stage.

One of the most magical moments from MozCon 2013 was from Wil Reynolds. After giving his hour-long presentation, Wil gave away a bunch of books, aimed to help people with their careers, and doled out advice to conference goers. He sat on stage talking with and listening to person after person during the lunch break. (Well, until I had to play traffic cop and let our a/v crew set up for the next speaker.) It probably could've gone on for hours longer.

Wil gives out books and advice

Wil signs books and talks with attendees at MozCon 2013.

We also give you the chance to be on stage and share your insights! At MozCon 2012, we launched our community speaker program where we opened up four shorter speaking slots for everyone in our community (YOU) to pitch for.

Every year, we get a ton of emails pitching to speak at MozCon. And for all those emails, I've sadly had to reply that we don't accept pitches because we have a selection committee. But now that we have community speakers, we have a place for everyone to toss their hat in the ring.

The competition is fierce for these spots. Last year, I kept them open for a week and a half and saw 130 responses! Crazy.

Our past speakers are really successful and amazing people, including A. Litsa, Dana Lookadoo, Darren Shaw, Fabio Ricotta, Jeff McRitchie, Mike Arnesen, and Sha Menz. All community speakers get to attend our speaker's dinner, get a free ticket to MozCon, and of course, get to speak on the MozCon stage.

Every year, our post-MozCon polling says that you love our community speakers, and many of their talks rank highly. We'll be opening community speaker solicitations no later than the first week of April. Stay tuned!

Mike on the MozCon 2013 stage as a community speaker

Mike Arneson owns that MozCon stage!

All throughout MozCon, you'll have the chance to interact with Mozzers. From marketing and help, to engineering and operations, Mozzers of all stripes use MozCon as a chance to learn who you are. Some are looking for direct feedback about products. MozCon 2013 goers got access to the Moz Analytics beta. And some just want to hear about you: the people who use the products we make, read the blog we've fostered, attend the Mozinars we host, and come for MozCon. We're always elated that people truly join us from around the globe.

Group photo of Mozzers

Group photo time! All the Mozzers.

Anyone else ever have problems at concerts where you can't see that stage? At MozCon, our set-up not only ensures there's not a bad seat in the house, but also that you have plenty of room. You know for your laptop, your tablet, your work phone, your personal phone, your MozCon swag bag, your moleskine, your coffee, your soda, your water, and your issue of Thor #337, which introduces Beta Ray Bill, that you never leave home without.

Attendees sit at tables with power cords and plenty of leg room. MozCon is a fully accessible conference for all attendees. And before you go asking about internetâ€"we know the wifi never works at any conference everâ€"we're coming up with some creative solutions. Just stay tuned.

Our speakers are also comfortable with an extra long stage and three huge, stage-to-ceiling (seriously, maybe a three inch gap up there) screens. The middle screen projects their live image and the other two show their presentations. We do our best to ensure that youâ€"yes, you way in the backâ€"can see every bit of the action.

Attendees listening to the speakers

Attendees listen to speakers, but also have room to move around.

We're happy to say that people come back to MozCon year-after-year, not to just learn, but to hang out with the industry friends that they've made. It's kind of like a big 'ole family reunionâ€"at least with the family you enjoy.

Friends hanging out at MozCon

Friends are just the best thing ever.

Learn all the things!

One of my absolute pleasures in life is working with MozCon's exceptional speakers. Industry leaders from about every niche in online marketing have graced the MozCon stage, sharing their knowledge, tips, and inspiring you. And me too!

Dana DiTomaso rocks the MozCon 2013 stage!

Our MozCon selection committee works extraordinarily hard to vet and handpick the best speakers. And we continually expect more and more from those who we invite back or invite for the first time when the next year's conversations start about who should speak. The MozCon stage is large; its audience very enthusiastic and particular; and because of that, I've seen seasoned speakersâ€"the people I know you'd love to have at a dinner party to pick their brainsâ€"send emails panicked that their presentations won't be enough. Don't worry, they always deliver.

Get a taste of MozCon sessions and speaker quality with these two free sessions. One from Kyle Rush from MozCon 2013 on conversion rate optimization and Wil Reynolds from MozCon 2012 on Real Company Shit:

While we're still working to confirm and select ~11 more speakers for MozCon 2014, here's who is already signed up: Annie Cushing, Dana DiTomaso, Jeremy Bloom, Justin Cutroni, Kyle Rush, Marshall Simmonds, Nathalie Nahai, Paddy Moogan, Pete Meyers, Phil Nottingham, Rand Fishkin, Richard Millington, Sarah Bird, and Wil Reynolds.

And don't worry, since MozCon is a single-session conference and we're all in one big room together, you won't miss a single presenter!

Let me give you a brief preview of who these amazing people are:

Annie Cushing

Annie Cushing is an analytics genius and consultant. No, seriously, if there's something that needs to be reformulated in a spreadsheet and made into a beautifully digestible report for your client, boss, or CEO, she's your go-to person. Annie's blog, Annielytics, is full of video tutorials to walk you through the jungles of Excel. This will be Annie's third MozCon, and in her very popular 2013 session, she spoke about "not provided" and going beyond keywords in your analytics.

Dana DiTomaso

Dana DiTomaso has her finger on the pulse of small business and local marketing. She leads as CEO at Kick Point Inc, a small agency. There, Dana regularly plays out David and Goliath type stories with the small businesses she represents. At MozCon 2013, she absolutely wowed our community with her talk about taking SMBs to the next level of marketing. Dana also may have moonlighted as Roger one time.

Jeremy Bloom

Jeremy Bloom from Integrate.com, a marketing software company, is new to MozCon, but you might've heard of him before. He's hit the entrepreneur world by storm, raising lots of venture capital and earning kudos and awards from Forbes, American Business Awards, and more. Jeremy is also a three-time World Champion, two-time Olympian, and eleven-time World Cup gold medalist in men's freestyle skiing. He also had an NFL career with the Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers. I think he'll be the first Olympian and NFL star on the MozCon stage.

Justin Cutroni

Need another heavy hitter? Google Analytics Evangelist Justin Cutroni will be joining us this year. If you need to learn anything about Google Analyticsâ€"the more advanced the better!â€"he probably has the answer. Justin is the author of two books, both on Google Analytics. He's also a father, skier, and cook.

Kyle Rush

You know that moment when you find out that quiet person sitting next to you secretly runs the world? That's Kyle Rush, head of optimization at Optimizely and formerly at The New Yorker and Obama for America. At the latter, he helped the team that transformed how we think about digital campaigns. (Seriously, go watch him talk about this.) Now that's some serious conversion rate optimization! Kyle also has some adorable dogs.

Marshall Simmonds

Are there ever enterprise-level sites that make your jaw drop at how much freaking amazing work went into them? Marshall Simmonds might've been the SEO behind them, sites like all the New York Times properties, USA Today, CBS, Toys-R-Us, Gawker Media, and many more. Today, he serves as the founder and CEO of Define Media Group, Inc., an enterprise-level SEO and consulting group. Marshall likes to remind us that he's "internet old," meaning that he gave a talk at the SEOmoz: PRO Training Series in 2010.

Nathalie Nahai

Leading the field of web psychology, Nathalie Nahai, the web psychologist, will be back on the MozCon stage. Her work delves into how to make your site(s) resonate with your audience based on their culture, gender, or other psychological need. Do you need an image of happy people or authority figures? Nathalie's got the answer. She's also an accomplished author and musician and is doing an upcoming free Mozinar with us.

Paddy Moogan

Besides having a name that's just fun to say, Paddy Moogan's an accomplished SEO with a knack for link building, and is head of growth markets at Distilled. He took the stage by storm in 2012, skipped 2013 to hang out with Hobbits in New Zealand, and now's back for 2014. And we're ready for Paddy and his love of comic books and Aston Martins (James Bond's car).

Dr. Pete Meyers

Dr. Pete Meyers. Do I really need to intro this guy? Data scientist here at Moz, Pete's done some killer projects about our collective obsession with changes in Google's Algo, including MozCast and the Google Algo History. Recently, he did a Reddit AMA and picks Superman as the winner in a fight against Batman. (I may disagree with this.) We're crossing our fingers that by July Chicago's dug itself out of snow, and Pete will be able to make it. :)

Phil Nottingham

Sometimes a pirate, sometimes a video expert, Phil Nottingham is the video strategist at Distilled. He especially enjoys being able to purchase shiny, new video equipment. Last year, Phil tickled the audience pink with his video where he pretended to be Rand for a Whiteboard Friday. His New Year's resolution is to drink better whiskey; I'm just putting that out there, MozCon goers...

Rand Fishkin

Rand Fishkin, the guy known for his loud shirts and industry championship. Founder of Moz, former CEO, and now an individual e-team contributor, Rand will be speaking to the changes in our industry this year at MozCon. He's spoken at every MozCon, delivering all those actionable tips and inspirational words. Despite all this, he still blushed as I made him write his own name on the whiteboard as the first chosen speaker for MozCon 2014.

Richard Millington

Founder of FeverBee, Richard Millington has made community building into a science. Think community is fluffy? Richard will blow your mind. Make sure to check out his recent free Mozinar. Whether you're wrangling mommy bloggers, gun enthusiasts, or the ever-popular plumbers, Richard will show you how to start, build, grow, and reach critical mass with your community.

Sarah Bird

Our brand-new CEO Sarah Bird will take the MozCon stage again. It's probably one her new job duties she's most nervous about. Trained as a lawyer, Sarah has a lifelong passion of learning new things and challenging herself. Good thing; we've kept her on her toes since 2007! For MozCon, we're planning on introducing a new format, a fireside chat, with Sarah, so you'll be able to hear all the good stuff about her and her new role.

Wil Reynolds

Always a crowd-pleaser, Wil Reynolds, founder of SEER Interactive, will be back to give out inspiration like candy in a suburb on Halloween. The first time I saw Wil speak (SearchFest 2012) his rousing speech somehow made me feel confident enough to drive through a snowstorm in a Prius. And minus the snowstorm, I challenge anyone not to feel transformed by a Wil speech. (Go watch his MozCon 2012 talk. MozCon talks age like fine wine.)

Cyrus Shepard

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Cyrus Shepard, our exceptional emcee. As the Senior Content Lead at Moz, he dreams up ways to drive traffic to our site and pokes people to level up our skills to help. Cyrus keeps speakers on track and facilitates q&a. If you're worried about his emcee chops, he sent in an audition tape of that time he won a car on Hollywood Squares.

I hope you're already taking notes of which speakers you can't wait to see. In the coming months, speakers will be firming up their topics and starting to dive into exactly what they'll be presenting on at MozCon 2014. They'll also be joined by around 15 more people, including our four community speakers. While you'll have to wait for the full agenda until then, you can get an idea of what kinds of talks happen at MozCon through last year's agenda.

We love hosting you!

We're excited to bring our community from all parts of the world to MozCon. Whether you live locally in Seattle or have to take two plus connecting flights from either Cape Town, South Africa or Tampa, Florida to reach us, we want to share something new with you.

For those of you boarding planes to MozCon, this year you (or your employer) can save some pennies by flying with either Delta or Alaska Airlines. If flying on Alaska, head to alaskaair.com and use the code ECMV042 for 5% off. If flying on Delta, go to delta.com and use the code NMH7W for 2-10% off, depending on where you depart from.

Once you hit Seattle, we've got some special deals with two great hotels, the Grand Hyatt and the Olive 8. Both are located in downtown Seattle, just two blocks away from MozCon, and both are fabulous places to lay your head down after a long day of learning. Not only is there a discount, but MozCon attendees also get complimentary wi-fi and $20 per night parking.

Book your hotel today!

MozCon map

MozCon is the far-right pin, and the two hotels are the other pins. So close!

So we got your shelter and your wifi, your next basic need of bacon is also covered. Did I write bacon? I meant food.

At Moz, we love our food, and since MozCon's like that big reunion with the good side of the family, we're going to feed you. Every day of MozCon, you'll have breakfast, lunch, and two snacks with us. We spare no details. In the past, we've had treats like ice cream and crepes for breakfast. Ever dream of conference food? (Are you laughing?) Well, MozCon's the exception to that.

Okay, what about the bacon? One of our most popular breakfast items is bacon. Last year, two mornings featured all the bacon you can eat. (As a long-time vegetarian, I donate my own bacon portions to one lucky MozCon goer every year.) And for those of us non-bacon eaters, don't worry, we'll have that covered too.

Enjoying the grub! Sorry, bacon fans, couldn't find a bacon-specific photo.

After a day of learning, you're going to need some downtime. Work hard, play hard, that's the mantra, right? In years past MozCon's parties have been hosted at such amazing venues at The Garage, which features a bowling alley, and the Experience Music Project (EMP), Seattle's own music and sci-fi museum. We're still nailing down the details, including location, for the Tuesday night bash, but rest assured, you'll be having the time of your lifeâ€"while making some great new friends.

Making friends at the MozCon Party!

Hanging out and having fun at the Tuesday party.

Okay, you've come all the way here, and you've seen photos of the new MozPlex... Yes, we give office tours!

We don't do them during MozCon, since we all attend it. But in the days surrounding, we open up the office and share our story and our space with you. We're super thrilled this year to be able to show off our new digs, which will fully be home sweet home by July. The MozPlex is about eight blocks away from MozCon, so just a short walk through downtown.

MozPlex tour sign-ups will most likely go up in June when we're much closer to the event.

the mozplex

Joel and Abe in their natural environment at the MozPlex.

We'd be remiss to not give you a welcoming gift (or four) to MozCon. Don't worry, we always try to fill our swag bags with useful, tasteful, and fun stuff. Last year, attendees were over the moon to get Roger figurines as part of their MozCon haul. While I'm under top-secret orders not to mention what we're giving away this year, let's just say I let out some squees.

All the Rogers!

That's a lot of Rogers who went out in the world with you.

While you're in Seattle, don't forget to visit Seattle! July is the best time to explore our city and the surrounding area. I know sometimes when we go to conferences that we only see beyond the conference and hotel on the to/from airport-hotel drive (I'm just as guilty!). Don't deprive yourself of digging into the best of Seattle, whether you want to visit the famous gum wall, discover the troll under the bridge, or head out to hike Mount Si. Whet your appetite with Rand's restaurant and bar guide, and discover amazing Seattle treasures as crowd-sourced by Mozzers.

The great thing about Seattle is that you can be whomever you want to. Whether you're looking to attend a Sounders game, reenact Macklemore's "Thrift Shop" (I can tour-guide!), take a hot tub boat on Lake Union, or eat pie and see Snoqualmie Falls, Seattle has something for everyone.

We love Seattle!

Highlights from our party last year include karaoke with a live band.

Take me to MozCon!

For those of you still trying to convince your boss (even if that boss is you!) about the expense, make sure to read the ROI (value vs expense) MozCon post from last year. MozCon's expenses and our program remains very similar value-wise. And don't forget to take a 30-day free trial in order to get the Pro Subscriber rate (if you're not already a Subscriber).

Don't hesitate to ask me anything about MozCon in the comments; I'll do my best to answer.

Sign up for MozCon today


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

gamer4ever: "Metal Gear Rising Revengeance PC Gameplay Walkthrough Part 6 - Raid..." and more videos


Mihai, check out the latest videos from your channel subscriptions for Feb 20, 2014.
Metal Gear Rising Revengeance PC Gameplay Walkthrough Part 6 - Raid...
gamer4ever
+ 2 more
Worst Cheating Bastards - Best of Just for Laughs Gags
Just For Laughs Gags
+ 4 more
LumiUpdate | Thanks to Zeny!
LumiCentral
Оккупай-гриферяй #14 [Поззитифон ты ли это?]
PozzitifonShow
Authority's Top 5 Plays: Ep.5!
WeUseAuthority
We think you'd like...
Serial Killers - John Justin Bunting (The Bodies in the...
Solved ~ Gone But Not Forgotten
Robert Ressler - [Part 6] - Criminal Profiler - Documen...

Seth's Blog : Doing what gets rewarded

 

Doing what gets rewarded

If you're not happy with how institutions or people act, take a look at what they get rewarded for.

Until we change the rewards, we're not going to change the behavior, because people always have a reason. Even if the reason isn't our reason.

[Rewards don't always come in the form of cash, of course. And sometimes, non-cash rewards are internal narratives, not ribbons or praise.]

       

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Email subscriptions powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA.

 

miercuri, 19 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Law of Bad Ideas

Posted: 19 Feb 2014 10:35 PM PST

A proposal by French president Francois Hollande got me thinking about "The Law of Bad Ideas". I did a search for the phrase and surprisingly, nothing came up. Thus, I get to define the phrase.

Law of Bad Ideas: Bad ideas don't go away until they have been tried and failed multiple times, and generally not even then.

Key Examples

  • Keynesian stimulus
  • Monetary stimulus
  • Price controls
  • Wage controls
  • Interest rate controls
  • Tax hikes of all sorts
  • Tariffs
  • Abenomics

That list just scratches the surface. 

I tribute this post to Francois Hollande, following his resurrection of the "Robin Hood" Financial Transaction Tax in a meeting yesterday with German chancellor Angela Merkel.

The Financial Times reports France and Germany in Push for 'Robin Hood' Tax Deal.
France and Germany have pledged to reach a deal on a European financial transaction tax by the end of May in a bid to give some impetus to efforts to find accord on the issue.

But the two governments have yet to bridge divisions on how the so-called "Robin Hood" levy would be applied in the 11 EU states that have signed up to implement the tax.

François Hollande, the French president, said after a joint Franco-German government meeting in Paris that trying to find the perfect formula for an FTT would only help those who wanted to neutralise it. "I prefer an imperfect tax to no tax at all," he said at a press conference with Angela Merkel, German chancellor.Merkel, German chancellor.

Ms Merkel said setting a target for agreement on concrete proposals before European parliament elections in May could be decisive. "If things move, certain countries may lose their reticence," she said.
Important Corollaries

Hollande's statement "I Prefer an Imperfect Tax to no Tax at All" gives rise to a couple of important corollaries.

Corollary Number One: Left alone, bad ideas get worse over time

Corollary Number Two: The overwhelming desire to implement bad ideas leads to compromises guaranteed to make things worse.

Ironically, Hollande's statement came just a couple days after he attempted to persuade businesses he would not kike taxes, but rather Harmonize Taxes in Six Years if Foreign Businesses Invest in France Now

Bad ideas in Europe generally have the endorsement of José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, and Herman Van Rompuy, head of the European Council.

This proposal fits the same pattern. A September 2011 Bloomberg article show Barroso and Van Rompoy were early adopters of the Financial Transaction Tax.

European Commission President Jose Barroso said the commission today adopted a proposal for introducing a financial-transaction tax. The fiancial sector must make a contribution back to society, Barroso told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

This revelation brings to light corollary number 3.

Corollary Number Three: Those in positions of political power not only have the worst ideas, they also have the means to see those ideas are implemented.

For a rebuttal to the Financial Transaction Tax idea please see my take on Why the Tobin Tax is a Bad Idea

As one might suspect, Paul Krugman is in favor of Taxing the Speculators.

Corollary numbers four and five stem from the obvious influence of those living in academic wonderland.

Corollary Number Four: The worse the idea, the more likely it is to be embraced by academia and political opportunists.

Corollary Number Five: No idea is so bad it cannot be made worse

Recap

Law of Bad Ideas: Bad ideas don't go away until they have been tried and failed multiple times, and generally not even then.

Corollary One: Left alone, bad ideas get worse over time

Corollary Two: The overwhelming desire to implement bad ideas leads to compromises guaranteed to make things worse

Corollary Three: Those in positions of political power not only have the worst ideas, they also have the means to see those ideas are implemented.

Corollary Four: The worse the idea, the more likely it is to be embraced by academia and political opportunists.

Corollary Five: No politically acceptable idea is so bad it cannot be made worse

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

China Manufacturing Deteriorates at "Moderate Pace"

Posted: 19 Feb 2014 07:32 PM PST

The global slowdown continues. Don't worry, the slowdown is at a "moderate pace".

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows China business conditions deteriorate at moderate pace in February.

Key points
  • Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.3 in February (49.5 in January) Seven-month low.
  • Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 49.2 in February (50.8 in January) Seven-month low.



Comments From HBSC Asian Economic Research Head
 
Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co - Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

"February's flash reading of the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI moderated further as new orders and production contracted, reflecting the renewed destocking activities. The building-up of disinflationary pressures implies that the underlying momentum for manufacturing growth could be weakening. We believe Beijing policy makers should and can fine-tune policy to keep growth at a steady pace in the coming year"

Commenting on the Comments

Mish says Hongbin Qu is off his rocker.

The idea than central planners can "fine-tune" anything is laughable. Indeed, one should seriously question if they can "gross-tune" anything at all.

Even if central planners can "gross-tune" it is at a huge cost of bubble-blowing economics.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spotlight on Ukraine: Riots in Kiev, EU Weighs Sanctions, Emergency Meetings; Fear of Default Contagion Spreads

Posted: 19 Feb 2014 04:39 PM PST

The situation in Ukraine grows worse by the day. Here is a recap of recent events.

Bloody Riots

Reuters: Ukraine police charge protesters after nation's bloodiest day
Ukrainian riot police charged protesters occupying a central Kiev square early on Wednesday after the bloodiest day since the former Soviet republic, caught in a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West, won its independence more than 22 years ago.

At least 18 people, including seven policemen, died on Tuesday during hours of violence between security forces and civilians who have staged protests against President Viktor Yanukovich since last November.

Many were killed by gunshot and hundreds more were injured, with dozens of them in a serious condition, police and opposition representatives said.

The riot police moved in hours after Moscow gave Ukraine $2 billion in aid for its crippled economy which it had been holding back to demand decisive action to crush the protests.

Nationwide demonstrations erupted after Yanukovich bowed to Russian pressure and pulled out of a planned far-reaching trade agreement with the European Union, deciding instead to accept a Kremlin bailout for the heavily indebted economy.
EU Weighs Sanctions, Emergency Meeting Called

Financial Times: EU weighs sanctions against 'authors of violence' in Kiev
Europe's top diplomats have been summoned to an emergency meeting in Brussels today after EU leaders called for sanctions against the Ukrainian government in response to a bloody crackdown that killed more than two dozen people.

The push for sanctions against Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine's president, and his allies marks a significant shift for the EU, which has so far insisted on a diplomatic response to the crisis. But it is not guaranteed the unanimous support required by the 28-member bloc, amid fears from some member states that a harder approach could push the country closer to civil war.

A group led by France and Poland will push for sanctions at an emergency meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. Although they are backed by Germany and the Czech Republic, several countries – including Italy, the Netherlands and Finland – are reluctant to move quickly. Spain prefers a diplomatic solution rather than sanctions.

The Obama administration said on Wednesday that it had placed 20 Ukrainian officials on a visa blacklist as a result of the violence in Kiev on Tuesday.

In the first sign of the EU's economic pressure coming to bear on Ukraine, the head of the EU's investment bank said that it had halted investments there. Werner Hoyer, president of the European Investment Bank, said that he had suspended activities in Ukraine, where the EIB has pledged to invest more than €1bn since 2011 in ventures such as a metro line and an air traffic control system.
Civil War Feared

Financial Times: Ukraine Facing Most Dangerous Hour for Many Years
The crisis in Ukraine appeared to be spinning out of control on Wednesday, leaving the former Soviet republic facing its most dangerous hour not just since independence in 1991 but for many decades.

While anti-government protesters tore up cobblestones along Khreshchatyk, Kiev's main avenue, as weapons to resist a second night-time assault by riot police, Donald Tusk, Polish prime minister, warned that the world might be witnessing "the first hours of a Ukrainian civil war".

"There is no civil war between the east and west of Ukraine," said Olexiy Haran, a political scientist and member of the protest co-ordinating committee. "There are no people in the east of Ukraine who are going to die for Yanukovich."

But a civil war was under way, he added, between "the people of Ukraine, and the Berkut [special police] and titushki" – the nickname for hired, pro-regime thugs that authorities have used in Kiev and elsewhere to beat up protesters.

With only about 4,000-5,000 Berkut police, and perhaps 15,000-20,000 well-trained and equipped interior ministry troops, analysts say the government would struggle to prevail over widespread and determined opposition, especially in the west. But plenty of blood could potentially be spilled along the way.

"This week we realised it isn't easy to resist when you're not armed and you are facing people who are using real bullets," said Mr Haran.
Ukraine Leader Denounces Coup

Reuters: Ukraine leader denounces coup bid, West readies sanctions.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich accused pro-European opposition leaders on Wednesday of trying to seize power by force after at least 26 people died in the worst violence since the former Soviet republic gained independence.

The White House urged Ukraine to pull back riot police, call a truce and talk to the opposition. But the Ukrainian security services said they were launching an "anti-terrorist operation" across the country after the seizure of government buildings, arms and ammunition dumps by "extremist groups".

Protesters have been occupying central Kiev for almost three months since Yanukovich spurned a far-reaching trade deal with the EU and accepted a $15-billion Russian bailout instead.

The sprawling nation of 46 million, with an ailing economy and endemic corruption, is the object of a geopolitical tug-of-war between Moscow and the West. That struggle was played out in hand-to-hand fighting through the night, lit by blazing barricades on Kiev's Independence Square, or Maidan. As dusk fell on Wednesday, protesters braced for more police action.

After a night of petrol bombs and gunfire on Independence Square, black smoke billowed from a charred trade union building that protest organizers had used as a headquarters.

When fighting subsided at dawn, the square resembled a battle-zone, the ground charred by Molotov cocktails. Helmeted young activists used pickaxes, and elderly women their bare hands, to dig up paving to stock as ammunition.

Amid a tense standoff in the central Kiev square, thousands of protesters, many masked and in combat fatigues, confronted police across makeshift barricades for a second straight day.

Priests intoned prayers from a stage while young protesters in hard-hats improvised forearm and knee pads to protect themselves against baton blows. Others prepared petrol bombs.

"They can come in their thousands but we will not give in. We simply don't have anywhere to go. We will stay until victory and will hold the Maidan until the end," said a 44-year-old from Ternopil who gave only his first name of Volodymyr.

Ukraine has been rocked periodically by political turmoil since independence from the Soviet Union more than 22 years ago, but it has never experienced violence on this scale.
Debt Default Contagion

Financial Times: Violence increases fears of debt default contagion
The worsening violence in Ukraine is adding to the strains on emerging markets, as investors weigh the risks to neighbouring economies and the potential for a Ukrainian debt default to trigger a renewed sell-off in the assets of other countries.

The chaos unfolding in Kiev hit central and eastern European currencies on Wednesday, with Poland's zloty falling 0.5 per cent to 4.1478 against the euro. Hungary's forint, already under pressure from persistently dovish monetary policy, fell about 1 per cent to 227.43 against the dollar, while the Romanian leu slipped 0.6 per cent. Fears over Ukraine also exacerbated a sharp fall in Russia's rouble.

Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, urged the country's parliament "to prepare Poland and Europe for the most dramatic possibilities", in a speech that showed the degree of concern felt in the country most directly exposed to Ukraine's turmoil.

"The implications for neighbouring countries should not be underestimated," said Simon Quijano-Evans, head of emerging market research at Commerzbank," noting that investors had previously underplayed the risks of unrest around the Arab world.

"A default could have a destabilising impact," said Koon Chow, head of emerging markets strategy at Barclays Capital. Ukraine could only be a trigger for a return of gloom to emerging markets – but with emerging markets still fragile after the last month's sell-off, and political crises deepening from Venezuela to Thailand, "we didn't need much".
On behalf of Mish readers globally, I send best wishes to the citizens of Ukraine.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

CBO Report Says Minimum-Wage Hike Will Cost 500,000+ Jobs; Common Sense vs. Research Papers

Posted: 19 Feb 2014 10:27 AM PST

A new CBO study shows ObamaCare Magnifies Minimum-Wage Job Losses.
The Congressional Budget Office weighed in on President Obama's proposed $10.10-an-hour minimum wage, saying it could lead to job losses that range from "very slight" to "1 million."

But in a footnote, the nonpartisan number cruncher explained that near-term job loss may be higher because its analysis didn't factor in the new ObamaCare costs imposed on employers.

"At the same time that the proposed increases in the minimum wage would take effect, the Affordable Care Act's requirement that many employers provide health insurance (or pay a penalty if they do not) will impose an additional cost on employers for some low-wage workers who do not currently have employment-based health insurance," the CBO said.



Over time, the CBO expects that the cost of complying with ObamaCare's employer mandate "will ultimately be borne by (low-wage) workers through lower wages."

Analysts on the left lashed out at the CBO for its analysis that "flies in the face of overwhelming empirical evidence," according to Christine Owens of the National Employment Law Project.

Yet there has been little study of minimum-wage hikes of the scale proposed (39% from the current $7.25 an hour).

Proponents of a large minimum-wage hike also have ignored its potential interaction with ObamaCare's employer mandate, which the CBO suggested may result in a bigger near-term job loss than a wage hike by itself.
Loss of 500,000 Jobs

Let's go straight to the CBO Report on Minimum Wages to get some numbers.
Effects of the $10.10 Option on Employment and Income. Once fully implemented in the second half of 2016, the $10.10 option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers, or 0.3 percent, CBO projects. As with any such estimates, however, the actual losses could be smaller or larger; in CBO's assessment, there is about a two-thirds chance that the effect would be in the range between a very slight reduction in employment and a reduction in employment of 1.0 million workers



According to CBO's central estimate, implementing the $10.10 option would reduce employment by roughly 500,000 workers in the second half of 2016, relative to what would happen under current law. 10 That decrease would be the net result of two effects: a slightly larger decrease in jobs for low-wage workers (because of their higher cost) and an increase of a few tens of thousands of jobs for other workers (because of greater demand for goods and services).

By CBO's estimate, about 1½ per- cent of the 33 million workers who otherwise would have earned less than $11.50 per hour would be jobless— either because they lost a job or because they could not find a job—as a result of the increase in the minimum wage. Those job losses among low-wage workers would be concentrated among people who are projected to earn less than $10.10 an hour under current law. Some workers who would otherwise have earned between $10.10 and $11.50 per hour would also see an increase in their wages, which would tend to reduce their employment as well, CBO estimates.
Politically Speaking

The Hill chimed in on the issue in its report Minimum wage hike to cost 500K jobs, boost income
President Obama's proposal to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour would cost 500,000 jobs in 2016, according to a report released Tuesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The report also found hiking the wage from $7.25 per hour would raise income for about 16.5 million workers by $31 billion, potentially pulling nearly 1 million people out of poverty.

The White House and economic groups on the left immediately pushed back at the CBO's conclusions on jobs even as they hailed the findings on poverty, saying its conclusions on jobs ran counter to other research.

Democrats are hoping to make the minimum wage a top issue in the 2014 midterms if the GOP blocks passage of a bill, but the CBO report would bolster Republican arguments for stopping a wage hike.

The office of Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was quick to seize on the CBO finding, arguing it shows Republicans are right that the proposal would hurt the economy.

"This report confirms what we've long known: while helping some, mandating higher wages has real costs, including fewer people working. With unemployment Americans' top concern, our focus should be creating — not destroying — jobs for those who need them most," said spokesman Brendan Buck.

The minimum wage findings are the second time in weeks the CBO has stirred up controversy on a high-profile issue.

Earlier this month, the CBO found that over the next decade, ObamaCare would result in the equivalent of 2.5 million fewer workers. It concluded many workers would chose to remain at home due to ObamaCare's expansion of health coverage.
Common Sense vs. Research Papers

Proponents of higher minimum wage laws cite studies that purportedly show hiking the minimum wage does not cost jobs.

For example, Barry Ritholtz recently linked to a couple of Minimum Wage: Research Papers that purportedly show higher minimum wages have no effect on hiring.

Such reports defy simple economic realities and common sense.

Although small differences in local minimum wages may not have much of an effect, I wonder if the studies properly take into account property tax differentials, local tax incentives, and the simple fact that wages generally rise over time regardless of minimum wage hikes.

Regardless, such studies cannot show the unseen: what would have happened in the absence of wage hikes.

Finally, the proposed minimum wage hike from $7.25 to $10.10 is a massive 39.3% increase. And that would come on top of Obamacare penalties.

It is beyond absurd to seriously propose that such whopping increases would not impede hiring. Only economic illiterates and political charlatans can make such statements.

Economic Reality

If owners of stores have to pay more for workers, they have less incentive to expand.

Here's the critical question: How many stores will Walmart, Pizza Hut, McDonalds, Wendy's etc., not open that they would have otherwise if the minimum wage rockets up to $10.10?

Common sense says it's a substantial number. It has to be. Stores that are marginal at one labor price point will be outright unprofitable at another labor price point. That is simple economic reality.

No unflawed study can possibly show otherwise.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Angela Merkel Backs EU Internet to Deter US Spying; Rand Paul's Proposal vs. Merkel's Proposal; NSA Wants Snowden Dead

Posted: 18 Feb 2014 11:23 PM PST

Just when it seemed that president Obama had anger over US spying under control, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped to the plate with a hard verbal punch aimed straight at Obama's face and the NSA.

Please consider Angela Merkel Backs EU Internet to Deter US Spying.
Momentum for a radical response to the National Security Agency spy scandal is building after Germany's chancellor backed calls for European internet services that are walled off from the US.

Ms Merkel said she would press François Hollande, the French president, to back a push for EU-based alternatives to the current US-dominated internet infrastructure when she holds talks in Paris on Wednesday.

"We'll talk with France about how we can maintain a high level of data protection," Ms Merkel said in her weekly podcast. "Above all, we'll talk with European providers that offer security for our citizens, so that one shouldn't have to send emails and other information across the Atlantic."

Some tech experts have warned that proposals to build alternative networks in Europe and force internet companies to store data about Europeans locally fail to take account of how the internet operates, or the continued legal obligation of American companies to turn information over to the NSA no matter where it is stored. US tech companies have also warned that a move to build secure regional networks would fragment the internet, turning it into a series of isolated regional data systems.

Ms Merkel's decision to throw her personal backing behind EU-centric internet services reflects how politically charged the issue is in Germany. Mr Snowden gave an interview to state broadcaster ARD saying the creation of a European "cloud" that did not send electronic data to servers on US soil would not defend Europe from espionage.

"The NSA goes where the data are," Mr Snowden told ARD. "If the NSA can pull text messages out of telecommunications networks in China, they can probably manage to get Facebook messages out of Germany."

In her podcast, the German chancellor, attacked Google and Facebook for basing their operations "where data protection is lowest" – an apparent swipe at Ireland, where both companies have their European headquarters. Referring to the two US companies, Ms Merkel said: "That's something that in the long run we can't endorse in Europe."

Ms Merkel's proposal is likely to win support from sections of German industry, where there is widespread concern about the security of intellectual property.

Sensitive to rising distrust among European consumers, some American tech firms have signalled a shift in strategy, with Microsoft saying it would allow overseas customers to have personal data stored on servers outside the US. Other US companies, like Google and Facebook, have opposed such European clouds – which have been championed by the European Commission in Brussels – over fears that they could Balkanise the internet and hamper its operation.
Rand Paul Files Class Action Suit Against NSA

On February 12, Politico reported Rand Paul files class-action suit vs. NSA
Sen. Rand Paul on Wednesday officially filed his class-action lawsuit against the Obama administration over National Security Agency data collection, joining with two prominent tea party leaders to make the announcement.

"There's a huge and growing swell of protest in this country of people who are outraged that their records are being taken without suspicion, without a judge's warrant and without individualization," Paul said at a news conference outside the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

"I'm not against the NSA, I'm not against spying, I'm not against looking at phone records," Paul said. "I just want you to go to a judge, have an individual's name and [get] a warrant. That's what the Fourth Amendment says."

The senator also argued that there's "no evidence" that NSA surveillance of phone data has stopped terrorism, even as the agency's proponents say it plays an important role in keeping the country safe.

"Whether you breach the Fourth Amendment 20 percent of the time or 100 percent of the time, it's still not the point," Paul told POLITICO in an interview Saturday. "The point is whether or not you still collect millions of people's information with a single warrant."
Rand Paul's Proposal vs. Merkel's Proposal

On every point, I side with Paul. I also side with global hero Edward Snowden who stated "If the NSA can pull text messages out of telecommunications networks in China, they can probably manage to get Facebook messages out of Germany."

Alternate Proposals

There are other strategies worth discussion.

What about encrypting every communication and every message with security so tight that even the NSA could not break it? Under that proposal the NSA would not have keys to anything.

Is that doable? I am not a security expert, but actually think it is. The problem is massive sets of public-private encryption keys might make it a nightmare for everyone involved.

The irony is, for organized crime and terrorists, that effort is well worth the time. That lends credence to Paul's claim "There is no evidence that NSA surveillance of phone data has stopped terrorism."

What about disbanding the NSA?

I am in favor of disbanding the NSA completely on the theory it is worse than useless. However, even if that were to happen, it would not stop spying by other countries.

So, not only do we need to stop useless data gathering, we need cooperation from other countries to do the same.

That puts us squarely back at coming up with methods no one can break. Which in turn means that the NSA, nor anyone else, can have access to encryption keys, except by an individual's name and a specific warrant.

NSA Wants Snowden Dead

Just to show you how much above the law the NSA jackasses think they are, one Pentagon official told BuzzFeed "I would love to put a bullet in Snowden's head".
"In a world where I would not be restricted from killing an American, I personally would go and kill him myself," a current NSA analyst told BuzzFeed. "A lot of people share this sentiment."

"I would love to put a bullet in his head," one Pentagon official, a former special forces officer, said bluntly. "I do not take pleasure in taking another human beings life, having to do it in uniform, but he is single-handedly the greatest traitor in American history."
All Snowden ever wanted was for US constitutional protections to remain intact. For that, NSA and Pentagon jackasses want him killed. Who are the real traitors here?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com