duminică, 2 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


China Manufacturing Deteriorates Modestly, Demand "Weaker than Expected"

Posted: 02 Mar 2014 10:28 PM PST

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' China PMI Index shows modest deterioration of business conditions in February.


Key points

  • Both output and new orders decline for the first time since July 2013
  • Payroll numbers are cut at fastest rate since March 2009
  • Solid reduction of output charges

Chinese manufacturers signalled reductions of both output and new business in February, leading to a moderate deterioration of overall operating con ditions. As a result, firms cut their staffing levels again in February and at the quickest pace in nearly five years. Meanwhile, input costs and output charges both declined at their fastest rates in eight months.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, such as the recent Chinese New Year festival, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) posted at 48.5 in February, up fractionally from the earlier flash reading of 48.3 , and down from 49.5 in January. This signalled a moderate deterioration in the health of the Chinese manufacturing sector.

February data signalled the first contractions of both output and new orders at Chinese manufacturers since July 2013. The rates of decline were moderate in both cases, and were linked by panellists to weaker-than-expected client demand.

New business from abroad also declined over the month, and at a modest pace that was little-changed from January. Lower output requirements and fewer new orders led to a fourth successive monthly fall in staffing levels at Chinese goods producers in February. Furthermore, the rate of job shedding was the quickest since March 2009.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Kerry Heads to Ukraine; McCain Proposes U.S. Missiles in Czech Republic

Posted: 02 Mar 2014 04:06 PM PST

In a symbolic but otherwise useless move, Kerry Heads to Ukraine as West Seeks Response to Russia Threat.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is traveling to Ukraine today as western leaders seek to respond to Russia seizing control of the eastern European country's Black Sea region of Crimea.

Kerry will travel to Kiev to offer support to Ukrainian leaders, U.S. officials said yesterday.

"The secretary will reaffirm the United States' strong support for Ukrainian sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and the right of the Ukrainian people to determine their own future," Jen Psaki, a Kerry spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement.

Khrushchev's Gift

Crimea was given to Ukraine by Russia in 1954 by then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. People who identified themselves as ethnic Russian comprise 59 percent of Crimea's population of about 2 million, with 24 percent Ukrainian and 12 percent Tatar, according to 2001 census data.
McCain Proposes U.S. Missiles in Czech Republic

Proving once again he is a war-monger extraordinaire, senator John McCain told Time Magazine "We Are All Ukrainians".
In response to reports of a Russian takeover in parts of Crimea, Arizona Senator John McCain said on Friday, "We are all Ukrainians," before calling for swift U.S. economic aid to Ukraine, condemnation of Russia at the United Nations, sanctions against Russian officials and the installation of U.S. missiles in the nearby Czech Republic.
Anyone who thinks more US missiles in Europe is the answer to this problem is seriously deranged.

And like all fake budget cutter hypocrites, McCain will not want to hike taxes to pay for those missiles either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

States Circumvent Food Stamp Cutbacks; Draconian Cuts "Much Ado About Nothing"

Posted: 02 Mar 2014 12:41 PM PST

Flashback December 10, 2013: In Close Inspection of Alleged "Draconian" Cuts in Food Stamp Program I noted Mother Jones, the Nation, and the Daily Koz whined about "draconian" cuts in the food stamp program.

Close scrutiny showed the "draconian" cuts amounted to $4 billion in a close to $80 billion program. I further commented I actually doubt we will ever see those "cuts" in the first place.

Flashback January 29, 2014: Disgusting Compromise on $956B Farm Bill; In Spite of Massive Howls, No Actual Cuts in Food Stamps.
Proving that neither party really wants to do anything about escalating costs of anything, in typical D.C. compromise action, the House Passes $956B Farm Bill in a bipartisan vote.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) all voted for the bill.

Democrats are howling over miniscule cuts in SNAP (food stamps). For example, an inane headline on the Daily Koz reads House passes food stamp-slashing farm bill.

Supposedly there will be $8.6 billion in devastating food stamp cuts. Even if that happens it is less than a 1% cut in an economy that is supposedly in recovery.

Contrary to Popular Belief, No Cuts in Food Stamps

Will there be any cuts? I rather doubt it. In the "too stupid to make up category", this is how they determined the cuts.

The bill finds $8.6 billion in savings by requiring households to receive at least $20 per year in home heating assistance before they automatically qualify for food stamps, instead of the $1 threshold now in place in some states.

Amazing!

Now what do you think will happen? If you can't figure it out, I will tell you. States will give $20 per year in home heating assistance to everyone currently getting $1 per year in annual home heating assistance.

There will be miniscule (if any) savings at all at the federal level, and small increases at the state level.
States Make End Run Around Food Stamp Cuts

Flash Forward March 2, 2014: States Make End Run Around Food Stamp Cuts.
Connecticut and New York have found a way around federal budget cuts that played a central role in the massive farm bill passed this month: bump up home heating assistance a few million bucks in return for preserving more than a half-billion dollars in food stamp benefits.

The moves by Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- with the possibility that more governors could follow -- cheer social service advocates who say the deep recession and weak economic recovery have pounded low-income workers and the unemployed who rely on heating assistance and food stamps.

An order by Malloy will spend about $1.4 million in federal energy aid, increasing benefits for 50,000 low-income Connecticut residents from $1 to $20 so they do not lose $112 in monthly food stamp benefits. It will preserve about $67 million in food stamp benefits. New York will spend about $6 million more in federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program funding to maintain food stamp benefits totaling $457 million.
Cuts Much Ado About Nothing

That there would be no cuts in food stamps was the easiest call I have ever made.

Yet, we had to put up with incessant and ridiculous whining from democrats about ridiculously small cuts, even if they happened, when it was clear all along they wouldn't happen.

We also had to put up with Republicans pretending they were doing something about spending when they knew (or should have known) they weren't.

Since the time of Shakespeare seldom has there been so Much Ado About Nothing and from both political parties to boot.

This is how I ended my January 29 commentary:
Oh! The Horror!

Republicans and Democrats alike should both be ashamed, not only for doing virtually nothing, but also for howling at the moon as if they did.
Question of the Day

Republicans either didn't see this coming, or they did see it coming and simply didn't care. Which is worse?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tighter Capital Controls in Ukraine, Transaction Limit About $100; New Head of Ukraine's Navy Defects After 1 Day

Posted: 02 Mar 2014 11:48 AM PST

Intent on stopping 'destabilizing forces' (runs on the bank), Ukraine's Privatbank Limits Cash Withdrawals, Loans.
Ukraine's largest commercial bank, Privatbank, announced temporary limits on cash withdrawals for its account holders and suspended writing new loans, saying in a statement the measures were intended to stop those undermining the political situation in the country.

"A temporary limit on withdrawals… is needed to stop the forces that are working to destabilize the situation [and] are using the cash for [their] sabotage," the bank said in a statement. The bank didn't clarify which political forces it was referring to.

The bank first announced withdrawal limits of 1,000 hryvnia ($103) a day at both automated teller machines and in over-the-counter transactions. However, shortly after publishing this statement, the bank removed the statement amid fresh discussions about whether to increase the limit.

A bank spokesman declined to say what new parameters were under discussion.

Privatbank said it was suspending all its credit lines issued to both private and corporate customers, including credit cards. It said it would no longer accept debit cards from other banks in the Crimea.
Head of Ukraine's Navy Defects After 1 Day

The BBC reports New head of Ukraine's navy defects in Crimea.
The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.

Admiral Berezovsky appeared in Sevastopol before cameras alongside Sergiy Aksyonov, the pro-Russian politician elected by Crimea's regional parliament as local prime minister.

Mr Aksyonov announced he had given orders to Ukrainian naval forces on the peninsula to disregard any orders from the "self-proclaimed" authorities in Kiev.

Sunday, he said, would go down in history as the birthday of the "navy of the autonomous republic of Crimea".

The admiral then pledged to "strictly obey the orders of the supreme commander of the autonomous republic of Crimea" and "defend the lives and freedom" of Crimea's people.

Admiral Berezovsky was later sacked by interim Ukrainian Defence Minister Ihor Tenyukh and a treason case launched against him.
It's rather bizarre that the new head of Ukraine's government could not manage to pick a loyal person to head the navy. Russia just may take over Crimea for a long time to come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Russian Troops Surround Two Military Bases in Crimea; Kerry Warns Russia Could be Expelled from G8

Posted: 02 Mar 2014 10:27 AM PST

In a live update feed Guardian reports Ukrainian and Russian troops in standoff at Crimean military base.

Summary

  • Russian troops have surrounded at least two military bases in Crimea and approached others seeking to gain access or get hold or their weapons. There were reported to be about 150 Russian troops and more than 20 military vehicles outside the Perevalnoe base, where there was a tense standoff. Ukrainian soldiers drove a tank up to the inside gates of the base in response and around 15 of them lined up against the gate.
  • The Ukrainian prime minister, Arseny Yatsenyuk, said Russia has declared war on Ukraine and that it is not just a threat from Moscow. He warned: "We are on the brink of disaster".
  • The US secretary of state, John Kerry, warned that Russia could be expelled from the G8 and face economic sanctions, unless President Vladimir Putin halts his "incredible act of aggression". He also mentioned visa bans, asset freezes and trade isolation as possible steps.
  • Nato secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen accused Russia of threatening peace and security in Europe by its actions and of violating the UN charter. He called on Russia to "de-escalate".
  • Britain and France joined the US in pulling out of preparatory meetings for the G8 economic summit, scheduled to be held in June at the Black Sea resort of Sochi, site of the just-concluded 2014 Winter Olympics.
  • Ukraine's parliament has called for international monitors to help ensure the safety of its nuclear power plants.
  • There were demonstrations both for and against Russian intervention in Ukraine in Moscow. There were at least 10,000 people at the pro demonstration, according to AP, although reporters said some were ordered to be there. The anti demonstration was much smaller but saw at least 50 people detained by Russian police.

Ukraine Orders Full Military Mobilization

The BBC reports Ukraine Orders Full Military Mobilization.
Christian Fraser: "There is a new dilemma for the Ukrainian military, submit to the new authority in Crimea - or else"

In Crimea, Ukrainian soldiers faced off with Russian soldiers surrounding their bases while the Russian army is said to be digging trenches on the border with mainland Ukraine.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Russia could be ejected from the Group of Eight developed nations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said, was "not going to have a Sochi G8, he may not even remain in the G8 if this continues," referring to a planned summit in Russia in June.

"He may find himself with asset freezes, on Russian business. American business may pull back, there may be a further tumble of the rouble.

The UK has joined the US, France and Canada in suspending preparations for the Sochi summit.

Russian soldiers continue to occupy key sites on the Crimean peninsula, including airports and communications hubs, although there has been no actual violence and they have been openly welcomed by some sections of the population.

In the east Ukrainian city of Donetsk, apparent members of the disbanded elite police riot unit Berkut appeared in full uniform at a pro-Russian rally.

Ukraine withdrew coast guard vessels from two ports in Crimea and moved them to other bases in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

A Ukrainian army base was surrounded by Russian troops at Perevalnoye, south of the Crimean regional capital Simferopol. An Orthodox priest has arrived in an attempt to mediate.

In Sevastopol, Ukrainian naval officers found their headquarters occupied by Russian troops and were unable to go to work.
Ukraine No Match for Russia

The New York Times reports Ukraine Forces Are Ill Equipped to Take Crimea Back From Russia
Crimea has always been a vital base for the Soviet and then Russian Navy, serving as the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, which has controlled the waters off southern Russia since 1783. After a period of tension following Ukraine's independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia got to keep its base in Crimea on a lease, extended until at least 2042 by the now-ousted president, Viktor F. Yanukovych.

But the Ukrainian military has only a token force in the autonomous region — a lightly armed brigade of about 3,500 people, equipped with artillery and light weapons but none of the country's advanced battle tanks, said Igor Sutyagin, a Russian military expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. The forces also have only one air squadron of SU-27 fighters deployed at the air base near Belbek.

The Russian takeover of Crimea was relatively easy, in part because the Ukrainian military was careful not to respond to a provocation that would excuse any larger intervention. The military — which has seen its top leader change constantly with the political situation — has also made a point of staying out of the internal political conflict in Ukraine.

The current military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Mykhailo Kutsyn, was named to the job only on Friday, after Adm. Yuriy Ilyin, 51, was relieved of his post after traveling to Crimea and, reportedly at least, having a heart attack. Admiral Ilyin had only been in the post for a short time himself, appointed by Mr. Yanukovych on Feb. 19 after Col. Gen. Volodymyr Zamana was fired for being unwilling to attack protesters in Kiev. All these changes have been an object lesson for the military to try to stay out of politics and civil unrest.

Even so, Ukraine had no realistic contingency plan for a Russian takeover of Crimea, given the size of the Russian forces legitimately based there, said Mr. Sutyagin, the military analyst. But he also said that he doubted that Russian forces would intervene elsewhere in Ukraine, because Russian forces would be too stretched to control much territory and even in the largely pro-Russia east, Ukrainian forces would be expected to fight back, aided by self-defense militias and partisans.

Steven Pifer, a former American ambassador to Ukraine now at the Brookings Institution, said that if Russian forces tried to move into eastern Ukraine, "there will be some Ukrainian units that will resist, and a flood of people from western Ukraine saying, 'This is my chance to be my grandfather and fight the Communists.' "
This could get messy in a hurry if Russian troops advance past the Crimea region.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Never eat sushi at the airport

 

Never eat sushi at the airport

or sleep near a train station.

Don't ask a cab driver for theater tips.

Never buy bread from the supermarket bakery...

and don't ask your spouse for honest feedback about how you look.

Don't do business with a stranger who calls you at home during dinner.

Think twice before you ask your ad agency how many ads you should run.

And never eat the macadamia nuts in the mini bar.

Proximity is not a stand in for expertise.

       

 

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sâmbătă, 1 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


France Becoming Increasingly Euroskeptic: Poll Shows 52% of Workers Want to Leave the Euro, Only 34% of Workers Believe EU is a Good Thing

Posted: 01 Mar 2014 02:45 PM PST

The following bullet points are from the French Ipos Poll: New French fractures, results and analysis of the Ipsos/Steria.

Although a huge majority of French want to stay on the Euro, a majority of "workers" don't.

Poll Conclusions

  • 79% distrust the outside world
  • 72% have no confidence in the French National Assembly
  • 74% think journalists do not write about the real problems
  • 66% think there are too many foreigners in France
  • 63% say Islam is not compatible with values of French society
  • 84% think politicians act for personal reasons
  • 70% Want strengthening of national power away from EU (up 5 percentage points from last poll)
  • 33% want to exit the euro (up 5 percentage points)
  • 52% of workers want to exit the euro (up 8 percentage points)
  • 45% think membership in the EU is a good thing, 40% think it's bad
  • 34% of workers think membership in the EU is a good thing 

Kevin O'rourke on the Irish Economy blog comments Class divides and European Integration, Yet Again.
This morning's Eurointelligence briefing put me on to this article in Les Echos, which in turn led me to this Ipsos opinion poll. It contains several sobering findings, notably with respect to foreigners. But the finding that struck me most — since this is something I have been writing about for years now — is that a majority of French working class voters now want to leave the Euro. Indeed, only 34% of French workers think that EU membership is a good thing. 

Isn't it amazing how short run blips in various economic indicators can lead powerful people to assume that all is well with the EMU project? It is slow moving variables — long term unemployment, gradual shifts in public opinion, and so on — that pose the greatest threat to the Euro's survival. If the far right does as well as people now seem to think it will in the European elections, this will presumably be presented in the media as a "shock" to the system, but has it not been obvious since 2010 at the latest that something like this was likely, given Eurozone macroeconomic policies? And has it not been obvious for years that actually existing EMU is harming the broader European project?

Europe's political leaders should remember what Ernest Hemingway said about bankruptcy.
Ernest Hemingway, 'The Sun Also Rises'

"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.
"Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

Painful Choice

In case you missed it, please see Stiglitz: Leaving the Euro Painful but Staying in More Painful; Eurozone Breakup Recap.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Russian Troops Seize Crimea; UN Security Council Meets; Russian Flag Raised in Kharkiv

Posted: 01 Mar 2014 01:07 PM PST

News is fast and furious in Ukraine.

  • Putin received approval to send Russian troops into Ukraine from Russian parliament.
  • Russian troops seized Crimea
  • Russian anti-submarine warships appear off Ukraine coast near Sevastopol in violation of naval agreement
  • Ukraine troops are on combat notice.
  • UN Security Council meets.
  • Obama warns Russia

The Telegraph has a live blog on Ukraine going with some of those headlines and this image of Kharkiv in which protesters have raised the Russian flag.



Russian Troops Seize Crimea
Reuters reports Troops Seize Crimea.
Talk of confrontation or outright war spread rapidly across Ukraine, with pro-Moscow demonstrators raising the Russian flag above government buildings in several cities and anti-Russian politicians calling for mobilization.

Troops with no uniform insignia but clearly Russian - some in vehicles with Russian number plates - have already seized Crimea, an isolated peninsula in the Black Sea where Moscow has a large military presence in the headquarters of its Black Sea Fleet. Kiev's new authorities have been powerless to intervene.

Western capitals scrambled for a response, but so far this has been limited to angry words from Washington and its European allies.

So far there has been no sign of Russian military action in Ukraine outside Crimea, the only part of the country with a Russian ethnic majority, which has often voiced separatist aims.

As tension built on Saturday, demonstrations occasionally turned violent in eastern cities, where most people, though ethnically Ukrainian, are Russian speakers, and many support deposed President Viktor Yanukovich and Moscow.

Demonstrators flew Russian flags at government buildings in the cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk.

In Kharkiv, scores of people were wounded in clashes when thousands of pro-Russian activists stormed the regional government headquarters, and fought pitched battles with a smaller number of supporters of Ukraine's new authorities.

Pro-Russian demonstrators wielded axe handles and chains against those defending the building with plastic shields.

In Donetsk, Yanukovich's home region, lawmakers declared they were seeking a referendum on the region's status.

"We do not recognize the authorities in Kiev, they are not legitimate," protest leader Pavel Guberev thundered from a podium in Donetsk.

Thousands of followers, holding a giant Russian flag and chanting "Russia, Russia" marched to the government headquarters and replaced the Ukrainian flag with Russia's.

Coal miner Gennady Pavlov said Putin's declaration of the right to intervene was "right".

"It is time to put an end to this lawlessness. Russians are our brothers. I support the forces."

"WAR HAS ARRIVED"

Although there was little doubt that the troops without insignia that have already seized Crimea are Russian, the Kremlin has not yet openly confirmed it.

For many in Ukraine, the prospect of a military conflict chilled the blood.

"When a Slav fights another Slav, the result is devastating," said Natalia Kuharchuk, a Kiev accountant.

"God save us."
Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Odessa

ABC News has some additional details in Russian Troops Take Over Ukraine's Crimea Region
Russian troops took over Crimea as the parliament in Moscow gave President Vladimir Putin a green light Saturday to use the military to protect Russian interests in Ukraine. The newly installed government in Kiev was powerless to react to the action by Russian troops based in the strategic region and more flown in, aided by pro-Russian Ukrainian groups.

Ignoring President Barack Obama's warning Friday that "there will be costs" if Russia intervenes militarily, Putin sharply raised the stakes in the conflict over Ukraine's future evoking memories of Cold War brinkmanship.

Ukraine's population of 46 million is divided in loyalties between Russia and Europe, with much of western Ukraine advocating closer ties with the European Union while eastern and southern regions look to Russia for support. Crimea, a semi-autonomous region that Russia gave to Ukraine in the 1950s, is mainly Russian-speaking.

Pro-Russian protests were reported Saturday in the eastern cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk and the southern port of Odessa. In Kharkiv, 97 people were injured in clashes between pro-Russia demonstrators who flushed supporters of the new Ukrainian government out of the regional government building and hoisted the Russian flag on top of it, according to the Interfax news agency.

Trenin, of Moscow's Carnegie office, said that Putin could be seeking to "include a Crimea within the Russian Federation and eastern and southern regions of Ukraine forming a separate entity integrated with Russia economically and aligned with it politically."

In Crimea, the new pro-Russian prime minister — who came to power after the gunmen swept into parliament on Thursday — claimed control of the military and police and asked Putin for help in keeping peace. There was no visible presence of Ukrainian troops Saturday.

Crimea only became part of Ukraine in 1954 when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred jurisdiction from Russia, a move that was a mere formality when both Ukraine and Russia were part of the Soviet Union. The Soviet breakup in 1991 meant Crimea landed in an independent Ukraine.

 Russia put pressure on Ukraine from another direction when a spokesman for state gas company Gazprom said that Ukraine owed $1.59 billion in overdue bills for imported gas. Sergei Kuprianov said in a statement carried by Russian news wires that the gas arrears would endanger a recent discount granted by Russia.

The Russian payment demand and loss of the discount would accelerate Ukraine's financial crisis. The country is almost broke and seeking emergency credit from the International Monetary Fund.

The tensions barely touched everyday life in Simferopol, the regional capital of Crimea, or anywhere on the peninsula. Children played on swings a few blocks from the parliament building, and most of the city's stores were open. Couples walked hand-in-hand through parks. Crimea's airports — civilian and military — were closed to air traffic, but trains and cars were moving to and from the Ukrainian mainland.

"Things are normal," said Olga Saldovskaia, who was walking through town with her son and grandson. While she doesn't like having gunmen in the streets, like many people in this overwhelmingly ethnic Russian city, she also found their presence reassuring.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Investing in Technology and Infrastructure to Create Jobs

 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Investing in Technology and Infrastructure to Create Jobs

President Obama said he took action this week to launch new manufacturing hubs and expand a competition to fund transformative infrastructure projects. Both are policies aimed at expanding economic opportunity for all by creating jobs and ensuring the long-term strength of the American economy. Congress can boost this effort by passing a bipartisan proposal to create a nationwide network of high-tech manufacturing hubs and taking steps to invest in our nation’s infrastructure – rebuilding our transportation system, creating new construction jobs, and better connecting Americans to economic opportunities.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 

 
 
  Weekly Wrap Up

It's the First-Ever White House Film Festival

Students and celebrities walked the White House red carpet yesterday as they entered the first-ever White House Film Festival.

Instagram: Bill Nye, Neil deGrasse Tyson, and the President take a selfie

Kal Penn, Bill Nye, and Neil deGrasse Tyson were on hand to showcase the 16 Official Selections, chosen from over 2,500 submissions -- all celebrating the role of technology in the classroom. As you can see, a Presidential selfie was in order.

READ MORE

POTUS and VPOTUS Show Us How They Move

Last week on "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon," the First Lady asked Americans to show her how they move. She promised that "if we get enough of a response, we'll have a little surprise -- the President, and maybe the Vice President, will show us how they move." Well, you showed us how you move in droves, and the First Lady is keeping her promise.

Watch: POTUS and VPOTUS show us how they move.

READ MORE

The Nutrition Label, Revamped

The celebration of Let's Move!'s fourth anniversary continued this week with a major announcement that serves as just one example of how the country is moving toward a new, healthier norm. First Lady Michelle Obama joined Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Margaret Hamburg to reveal proposed updates to the Nutrition Facts label.

Tweet: "You... should be able to... pick an item off the shelf and tell whether it's good for your family." - FLOTUS #LetsMove

The Nutrition Facts label was released for the first time in 1994 and has only been updated once in the past 20 years. The proposed updates reflect the latest scientific information, which ties diet to obesity and chronic diseases. In addition to being redesigned to highlight key parts of the label, such as calories and serving sizes, the proposed label also updates serving sizes to match how much people really eat and requires information about the amount of “added sugars” in a food product.

READ MORE

The Vice President Hangs With Amy Poehler and Seth Meyers

Vice President Biden stopped by the inaugural episode of "Late Night with Seth Meyers" on Monday, where he spoke about his love of trains, the President's State of the Union address, and more. Behind the scenes, the VP chatted with the new host and guest Amy Poehler and even had gifts for the two of them:

Watch: West Wing Peek

Mr. Vice President, we'd love a train whistle too!

READ MORE

President Obama Reveals Secret Iron Man Project

The President made a major announcement earlier this week before delivering remarks about manufacturing innovation:

Tweet: "We're building Iron Man... not really -- maybe -- it's classified." -- Obama on boosting manufacturing.

Yes, President Obama did announce we're building Iron Man. Or maybe he didn't. Either way, it's above our pay grade. We do know that the President made another, more serious announcement of two new manufacturing innovation hubs, one in Chicago and one in the Detroit area, along with a competition for the first of four additional institutes that will will boost advanced manufacturing in the United States and attract the types of high-quality jobs that a growing middle class requires.

READ MORE

West Wing Week: "I Am My Brother's Keeper" 

As always, to see even more of this week's events, watch the latest episode of West Wing Week:

Watch: West Wing Week 2/28/14

WATCH NOW


 

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Seth's Blog : Might as well burn that bridge all the way down to the pilings

 

Might as well burn that bridge all the way down to the pilings

It's not that hard to have a misstep. In fact, if you interact with enough people, it's certain that you will.

Sometimes, if we're quite lucky, when we get it wrong, the person we wronged will politely point it out to us.

At this point, we have a choice. We can elegantly (and with gratitude) make things right, which often builds a better bridge than we could ever hope for...

Or, in frustration, embarassment and a bit of pique, we can choose to make things worse. 

Here are some of the magic words that might help build that bridge:

  • "I" (not "we" or some magical use of the third person)
  • "sorry"
  • "thank you"

When someone gives you gentle feedback, it's because they want to connect, not because they want to help you finish burning down the bridge you ignited in the first place. They don't want an excuse, a clever comeback or a recitation that you're just doing your job.

It's there if you want it.

       

 

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vineri, 28 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Stiglitz: Leaving the Euro Painful but Staying in More Painful; Eurozone Breakup Recap

Posted: 28 Feb 2014 12:57 PM PST

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz has come to the right conclusion Leaving the Euro Painful but Staying in More Painful.



Partial Transcript

Question: I want to probe you a bit on that small mistake of the euro. UYou seem to suggest there is nothing that cannot be solved with more European solidarity and I agree with that intellectually. But if you are politically realistic, I don't think it is going to be forthcoming. I don't see large checks being written by German politicians to subsidize for example, the Spanish or Greek unemployed. So if you think about that perspective, and put yourself in the shoes of a 30-year old Spaniard or Greek head of household who has no prospect of employment, would it not be better is countries left the eurozone altogether?

Stiglitz: As I said in my talk the reality is, if the reforms I described were made, Germany would not have to write large checks. It more likely to pay a high cost for not making these reforms.  ... But I think your description of the reality of the way the dialog is going in Germany is absolutely correct. And that is one of the reasons I am a little depressed about the future of Europe. It's going to be a hard row to persuade Germany to make these reforms even if they would cost less. And that leaves Spain and Greece with an important debate, a policy question, what should they do if the reality is there won't be these reforms. To me the real risk is the following: Europe is going to dangle out just enough hope that Spain and Greece and the other periphery countries will say, they are going to come to our assistance. .... But they are going to dangle enough hope that people won't want to leave the euro, but in fact, there will be so little reform there will be literally no time soon the countries will emerge from depression. SAo my advice would be along the lines of what you are hinting at: They should probably face the reality that there is not going to be political reform that will make the euro viable for the periphery ... that internal devaluation won't work, that leaving the euro will be painful, but staying in the euro will be more painful.

Among economists, there is an easier solution, that many people have argued, that Germany should leave. If Germany leaves, the value of the euro will go down, the competitiveness of the southern 
countries would become substantially enhanced. They can design a set of economic policies that work for a large group of countries, and owing money in euros they will be able to repay money in euros. Germany is in a better position to absorb the consequences of a breakup in that fashion.

End Transcript

Better if Germany Leaves

I am in total agreement with the unknown questioner regarding the political reality: Germany will not pony up the cash, nor the banking union and fiscal unions required to make the euro work.

On November 9, 2011 in Breakup Inevitable, but How? I offered the following comments.
Eurozone Breakup Inevitable, But How?

The Eurozone is a failed experiment. A breakup is inevitable just as it has been from the beginning. Structural flaws were too great, built up over the years. No currency union in history has ever survived unless there was also a fiscal union.

It would be best for all involved if Germany left the Eurozone and went back to the Deutschmark. Germany would have an immediately credible currency. Should Greece or Spain leave first, those countries might experience hyperinflation or massive inflation.

It's important to remember that Germany suffers regardless. As long as the Eurozone stays intact (it can't and won't over the long haul) German taxpayers have to keep acting bailing out foreign countries, foreign banks, and their own banks.

On the other hand, were Germany to leave, the debts to German banks will not be paid back in Deutschmarks but rather deflated Euros.

On the whole, Germany exiting the Eurozone would be less disruptive, than massive inflation scenarios in Greece, Portugal, and Spain.
Eurozone Math; One Size Fits Germany; Door Number Two

People accuse me of blaming Germany. The blame goes to the architects  of the fatally flawed euro and the politicians who signed up for the mess.

Blame also goes to the ECB. I have written about that on numerous occasions as well. For example, please consider my April 11, 2013 post Eurozone Math; One Size Fits Germany; Door Number Two.
Reader "JB" thinks I am blaming Germany for what is happening. That's not exactly correct, but let's take a look at what "JB" has to say via email.
Hi Mish,

I read your blog daily. We are generally on the same page. We even agree that in all probability the eurozone will break up. However, You cannot blame the Germany, the German government, or the German people for doing the right thing. Germans can accept austerity. The phrase "tightening the belt" is an axiom in the German language. ....
JB
Hello JB, I think you misunderstand my message. I am not biased against Germany, and I am in favor of "austerity".

By "austerity" I mean shrinkage of public sector jobs and pensions, and liberalization of work rules.

I am against tax hikes, especially those imposed on Spain, Greece, and Portugal by the nannycrats in Brussels. What the nannycrats call "austerity" is nothing more than devastating tax hikes coupled with minimal, if any work rule reforms.

My message is primarily a function of math.

Eurozone Math

  • Germany was the primary beneficiary of the ECB's "one size fits Germany" interest rate policy.
  • It is mathematically impossible for every country to be an exporter like Germany
  • It is mathematically impossible for one interest rate to work when there is a multitude of fiscal policies
  • It is mathematically impossible for the euro to survive without a transfer mechanism of some sort from Germany to peripheral Europe, and Germany will not allow any transfer mechanisms
  • It is mathematically impossible within the realm of the euro for Spain to be more like Germany, unless Germany is less like Germany
  • Germany has ruled out everything that could possibly make the eurozone work.

Euro Architects and Politicians to Blame

I do not blame Germany. I blame all the architects of the euro. I also blame all the politicians making matters worse by trying to force their will on the markets. In that sense, I do blame Merkel, but I also blame Hollande, Sarkozy, Trichet, Draghi, and everyone else involved in this mess, past or present.

One Size Fits Germany (Until it Doesn't)

The math of the matter is Germany benefited from the Euro and from the ECB's "one size fits Germany" interest rate policy more than any other country.

As a direct result of the unstable eurozone treaty, sovereign interest rate imbalances, Target II imbalance, and trade imbalances are out of control. Germany and the other European creditor countries are owed money that cannot be paid back.

Door Number Two

The eurozone cannot work as is, and Germany is going to pay the price in one of two ways.

  1. Germany Forgives Loans to European Debtor Nations
  2. The debtor nations exit the eurozone and default

German taxpayers do not want to bail out the rest of Europe. And if I was a German taxpayer I would have the same stance. Without assigning blame to Germany, the math is what it is: unsustainable.

Pick your poison. Is it door number one or door number two? Odds overwhelmingly favor door number two.

Even diehard supporters of the eurozone now see it cannot work. For example, please see Eurointelligence Founder Wolfgang Münchau, Once a Staunch Euro Supporter, Now Welcomes the Anti-Euro Party "Alternative for Germany".

Soros On Board

George Soros is still a eurozone supporter, but he understands it cannot work without eurobonds. I do not believe the eurozone can work with eurobonds as I expect tensions will be high. Soros' second-best alternative is for Germany to exit the eurozone.

That has been my #1 idea for a long time. I explained it recently in Illusions of Stabilization.
Failed Experiment

The Eurozone is a failed experiment. Structural flaws were too great initially, and they have increased over the years. No currency union in history has ever survived unless there was also a fiscal union. Current politics says it cannot happen, on meaningful terms.

Breakup Inevitable, But How?

A breakup is inevitable, just as it has been from the beginning. The key is to manage a breakup in the least destructive manner.

Breakup Options

Option 1: If Germany (and the northern states) left the eurozone, the Deutschmark (and respective currencies) would immediately be credible. The downside to Germany (and the northern states) is debts to German banks would not be paid back in Deutschmarks but rather deflated (but not worthless) Euros.

Option 2: The second option is a piecemeal, destructive breakup. Should Greece and Spain leave first, those countries might experience a complete loss of faith in currency resulting in hyperinflation. The Northern states would be paid back in worthless notes, if they were paid back at all.

Germany Suffers Regardless

Note that Germany and the Northern creditor nations suffer regardless. Either they keep ponying up bailout money, there is a managed breakup, or a piecemeal destructive breakup. It would be best for all involved if Germany left the eurozone and went back to the Deutschmark.

There are no other options, and no other choices. Meanwhile, imbalances grow and German taxpayers keep funneling tax dollars to the Southern states to keep them afloat.
Merkel Not a Savior

Many Germans view Merkel as a hero for her tough stance on Cyprus.

However, Merkel is neither a savior nor a hero. Her stance is always one of political necessity. Every step of the crisis she has made politically expedient decisions such as caving in to Sarkozy and providing funds for Greece but not for Cyprus.

Sentiment in Germany in favor of holding the eurozone together is strong provided German taxpayers do not have to pony up another dime. The irony is Germany was the main beneficiary of the ECB's "one size fits Germany" interest rate policy that destroyed Spain and peripheral Europe.

Sentiment Does Not Change the Math

Sentiment does not change the eurozone math, but it does impact the way the eurozone breaks apart.

Expect a piecemeal, destructive breakup.

Some will blame Germany. I blame a mathematically unworkable treaty that was flawed from the beginning. I also blame all the politicians who supported the idea even though it was fatally flawed.
Late to the Party

Those just now coming to the conclusion the euro cannot possibly work are late to the party.  Yet, many, if not most, still have not figured this out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ukraine Limits Withdrawals to 15,000 Hryvnia per Day (about $1,500); Hryvnia Up 14%

Posted: 28 Feb 2014 10:19 AM PST

Hoping to halt or slow capital flight and stop the run on banks, the Ukraine central bank limited foreign currency withdrawals to 15,000 Hryvnia per day as noted by FxStreet earlier today.

Hryvnia vs. US Dollar



Taking into account today's 14% rise, 15,000 Hryvnia is about $1,556.
 
Capital controls and/or other interventions seem to have stopped the slide in Hryvnia. For how long?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Eurozone in Deflation; Monetarist Mouthpieces Will Scream

Posted: 27 Feb 2014 11:24 PM PST

Forget all the talk about CPI or as they call it in Europe HIPC (harmonized index of consumer prices) floating just under 1%.

The true measure of inflation is credit expansion. And for the second month, credit contracted in the Eurozone.

Reuters reports Euro zone lending contraction compounds ECB headache.
Lending to households and firms in the euro zone fell again in January and money supply growth remained subdued, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to take action next week to support the economy.

The ECB has cut interest rates to a record low, pumped extra liquidity into the banking system and announced a fresh government bond purchase program, but the measures have so far not managed to unclog lending to the real economy.

Euro zone inflation is also running at only 0.8 percent - far below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent.

Loans to the private sector fell by 2.2 percent in January from the same month a year earlier, ECB data released on Thursday showed. That compared to a contraction of 2.3 percent in December.

Euro zone M3 money supply - a more general measure of cash in the economy - grew at an annual pace of 1.2 percent, picking up slightly from 1.0 percent in December.
Monetarist Mouthpieces Will Scream

Credit contraction news will have all the monetarist mouthpieces screaming yet again.

Ignore them.

Stepping on the gas pedal with QE will not do a damn thing except create an even bigger asset bubble in European equities.

When bubbles pop - and they always do - the only thing monetarists will have to offer is still more monetary stimulus.

On January 27 I stated Deflation Will Return: Europe First, Then US.

Here we are.

For a discussion as to why the monetarists are dead wrong about what to do about the situation, please consider ...

  1. What the Crisis Taught Us: More Bubbles! We Need Bigger Bubbles to Combat Deflation!
  2. Monetarism, Abenomics, QE, and Minimum Wage Proposals: One Bad Idea Leads to Another, and Another

Throwing money at problems has never once in history solved anything over the long term.

Nonetheless, monetarist mouthpieces who do not understand history will be screaming for more currency intervention.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com