miercuri, 23 aprilie 2014

Just For Laughs Gags: "Absurd Noisy Shoe Prank" and more videos

Just For Laughs Gags: "Absurd Noisy Shoe Prank" and more videos

Mihai, check out the latest videos from your channel subscriptions for Apr 24, 2014.
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540,000 Jobs Through Joining Forces

 
Here's what's going on at the White House today.
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

540,000 Jobs Through Joining Forces

Our commitment to our nation's service members and their families does not end when their service does. That's why three years ago, the First Lady and Dr. Biden started Joining Forces, a national initiative to give our service members and their families the opportunities and support they have earned.

Today, the First Lady and Dr. Biden joined the 101st Airborne Division at a comprehensive Veterans Jobs Summit and Career Forum to announce that more than 540,000 veterans and military spouses have been hired through Joining Forces.

Learn more about how Joining Forces is helping our military families.


 
 
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Tools You Can Use: Earth Day Edition

We all have to play a role in forging a healthier, greener and better world for our children -- not just on Earth Day, but every day. Here are some great tools to help you do your part throughout the year by saving energy and increasing energy efficiency at home and on the road.

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On Earth Day, a Commitment to Climate Action

On Earth Day, Administration officials joined Americans around the country to talk about our environmental and climate challenges.

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The 2014 White House Easter Egg Roll

President Obama and the First Lady welcomed more than 30,000 guests to the White House South Lawn on Monday for the 136th annual White House Easter Egg Roll.

READ MORE


 
 
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6:00 AM: The President arrives Tokyo, Japan

7:30 AM: The President joins Prime Minister Abe of Japan for a private dinner


 

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Penguin Penalties: Do Webmasters Respond the Way They Should?

Penguin Penalties: Do Webmasters Respond the Way They Should?


Penguin Penalties: Do Webmasters Respond the Way They Should?

Posted: 22 Apr 2014 05:14 PM PDT

Posted by russvirante

Penalization has become a regular part of the search engine optimization experience. Hell, it has changed the entire business model of Virante to building tools and services around penalty recovery and not just optimization. While penalties used to be a crude badge of honor worn by those leaning towards the black-hat side of the SEO arts, it is now a regular occurrence that seems to impact those with the best intentions. At Virante, we have learned a lot about penalties over the last few years—discerning between manual and algorithmic, Panda and Penguin, recovery methodologies and risk mitigation—but not much study has been done on the general response of websites to penalizations. We have focused more on what webmasters ought to do without studying what webmasters actually do in response to various penalties.

How webmasters respond matters

As much as we often feel a communion among other SEOs in our resistance to Google, the reality is that we are engaged in a competitive industry where we fight for customers in a very direct manner. This duality of competition—with Google and with each other—plays out in a very unique way when Google penalizes a competitor. We learn a great deal in the following months about the competition, such as the sophistication of their team (how quickly they respond, how many links they remove, how quickly they recover), their financial strength (do they increase ad spend, how much and on what terms), and whether they eventually recover.

It is also important from a wider perspective of understanding Google's justifications for particular types of penalties that seem sweeping and inconsistent. Conspiracy theories abound regarding Penguin updates; I can't count how many times I have heard someone say that penalties are placed to encourage webmasters to switch to AdWords.

So, I decided to investigate the behavior of webmasters post-Penguin from a macro perspective to determine what kinds of responses we are likely to see, and perhaps even answer some questions about Google's motivations in the process.

The methodology

  1. Collect examples: I collected a list of 100 domains that were penalized by Penguin 2.0 last year and confirmed their penalization through SEMRush.
  2. Establish controls: For each penalized site, I identified one website that ranked in the top 10 for their primary keyword that was not penalized.
  3. Get rankings and AdWords data: For each site (both penalized and control), we grabbed their historical rankings and AdWords spend from SEMRush for the months leading up to and following Penguin 2.0
  4. Get historical link data: For each site (both penalized and control), we grabbed their historical link data from Majsetic SEO for the months leading up to and following Penguin 2.0.
  5. Analyze results: Using simple regression models, we identified patterns among penalized sites that differed significantly from the control sites.

Do webmasters remove bad links?

After a Penguin 2.0 update, it is imperative to identify and remove bad links or, at minimum, disavow them. While we can't measure disavow data, we can measure link acquisition data quite easily. So, do webmasters in general follow the expectations of link removal following a penalty?

Aggressive link removal: It appears that aggressive link removal is a common response to Penguin, as expected. However, we have to be careful with the statistics to make sure we correctly examine the degree and frequency with which link removal is employed. The control group on average increased their root linking domains by 41 following Penguin 2.0, but that could best be explained by a few larger sites increasing their links. When looking at an average of link proportions, only about 22% of the control sites actually saw an increase in links in the three months post-Penguin. The sites that were penalized saw a drop of 578 root linking domains. However, once again, this statistic is impacted by the link graph size of the individual penalized sites. 15% of those penalized still saw an increase in links in the three months following Penguin.

So, approximately 22% of domains not impacted by Penguin 2.0 had more root linking domains three months after the penalty, while only 15% of those penalized had more root linking domains post-Penguin. Notice how small the discrepancy is here. Webmasters responded differently only by 7% depending on whether or not they were penalized. While certainly those penalized removed more links, the practice of link building in general was very similarly affected. In the three months following Penguin, 78% of the control websites either dropped links or at least stopped link building and lost them through attribution. This is remarkable. There appears to be a deadening effect related to Penguin that impacts all sites—not just those that are penalized. While many of us expected Penguin to have a profound impact on link growth as webmasters respond to fears of future penalties, it is still amazing to see it borne out in the numbers.

Deadening Link Growth

What I find more interesting is the variation in webmaster responses to Penguin 2.0. Some penalized webmasters actually doubled down on link building, likely attributing their rankings loss to having too few links, rather than being penalized. We can tease this type of behavior out of the numbers by looking at the variances in percentage link change over time.

The variance among link fluctuations for sites that were not penalized was .08, but the variance among sites that were penalized was .38. This means that the behavior of websites after being penalized was far more erratic than those that were not. Some penalized sites made the poor decisions to greatly increase their links, although more sites made the decision to greatly decrease their links. If all webmasters responded uniformly to penalties, one would not expect to see such an increase in variance.

As SEOs, we clearly have our work cut out for ourselves in teaching webmasters that the appropriate response to a penalty is very much NOT adding more and more links to your profile, because this behavior is actually more common than link removal post-penalty. It is worth pointing out that it is possible that the webmasters disavowed links rather than removing them. We do not have access to that data, so we cannot be certain regarding that procedure. It is possible that some webmasters chose to disavow while others removed, and that the net impact on link value was identical, thus making the variance calculation false.

Do webmasters increase their ad spend?

I'll admit, I had my fingers crossed on this one. Honestly, who doesn't want to show that Google is just penalizing webmasters because it helps their bottom line? Wouldn't it be great to catch the search quality team not being honest with us about their fiduciary independence?

Well, unfortunately it just doesn't bear out. The evidence is fairly clear that there is no reason to believe that webmasters increase ad-spend following a Penguin 2.0 penalty. Let's look at the numbers.

Ad Traffic Increase

First, across our data set, no one who was an advertiser prior to Penguin 2.0 stopped advertising in AdWords in the three months after. Of the sites that were not advertisers prior to Penguin 2.0, 10% of those not penalized ended up becoming advertisers in AdWords, while only 4% of those penalized became advertisers. Sites that weren't penalized were far more likely to join the AdWords program than those that were.

It wasn't only true that those unaffected by Penguin 2.0 were more likely to sign up for AdWords; they increased their average Ad-spend, too. There was a 78% greater increase in ad-spend by those unaffected by Penguin 2.0 than those who were. Moreover, bidding shifts for those not impacted by Penguin remained similar in two month intervals across multiple randomly selected three-month differences, meaning that there appeared to be no related impact whatsoever.

We can safely conclude from this that there does not appear to be a direct, causal relationship between Penguin penalties and increased AdWords spending. Now, one could of course make the argument that better search results might increase ad revenue in the future as Google attracts more users to a better search engine, but accusations of a fiduciary motivation for releasing updates like Penguin 2.0 cannot be substantiated with this data.

Do they recover?

By the 5th month, approximately 24% of sites that were penalized were at or above their pre-Penguin 2.0 traffic. This is an exciting outcome because it does show recovery from Penguin is possible. Perhaps most important, sites that were penalized and removed links on average recovered 28% more traffic in the five months after Penguin than those that did not remove links. We have good evidence to suggest at least a correlation between post-penalty link removal and traffic recovery. Of course, we do have to take this with a grain of salt for a number of reasons:

  • Sites that removed links may have been more likely to use the disavow tool as well.
  • Sites that removed links may have been more SEO-savvy in general and fixed on-site issues.
  • Sites that did not remove links may have had more intractable penalties, thus their lack of removal was a conscious decision related to the futility of a removal campaign.

These types of alternate explanations should always be entertained when using correlative statistics. What we do have good evidence of is that traffic recovery is possible for sites hit by Penguin, although it is by no means guaranteed or universal. Penguin 2.0 needn't be a death sentence.

Takeaways

So, in a few weeks, we are likely to see another Penguin update, assuming Google follows its late-spring release date. When Penguin hits, be ready—even if you aren't going to be penalized. Here are some things you should be doing...

  1. Know your bad links already. There is no reason to wait to be prepared for removal or disavowal. While I personally think that preemptive disavowal is likely the best practice, there is no excuse to just wait.
  2. Don't worry about AdWords. There is no statistical evidence that your competition will surge post-Penguin in any meaningful fashion. The competitors who might come to depend move on AdWords also have less organic revenue to invest in the first place. At best, these even out.
  3. Don't double down. While we can't be certain that link removal gets you out of penalties (it is merely correlated), we can be certain that even a correlation doesn't exist for increasing links and earning recovery post-Penguin penalties.
  4. Never assume. The behavior of your competitors and of Google itself is far more complex than off-the-cuff assumptions like "Google just penalizes sites to force people into AdWords" or that your business will know intuitively to remove or disavow links post-Penguin.

Hopefully, this time around we will all be more prepared for the appropriate response to Google's next big update—whether we are hit or not.


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Seth's Blog : The generosity boomerang

 

The generosity boomerang

Here's conventional wisdom:

Success makes you happy. Happiness permits you to be generous.

In fact, it actually works like this:

Generosity makes you happy. Happy people are more likely to be successful.

       

 

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marți, 22 aprilie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


China Manufacturing Output and New Orders Contract Once Again

Posted: 22 Apr 2014 09:59 PM PDT

Chinese manufacturing remains in contraction for 2014. Output and new orders were down for the 4th consecutive month, but at a slightly reduced pace according to the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI.



Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co - Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

"The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI stabilised at 48.3 in April, up from 48.0 in March. Domestic demand showed mild improvement and deflationary pressures eased, but downside risks to growth are still evident as both new export orders and employment contracted. The State Council released new measures to support growth and employment after the release of Q1 GDP. Whilst initial impact will likely be limited, they signalled readiness to do more if necessary. We think more measures may be unveiled in the coming months and the PBoC will keep sufficient liquidity."

There is a massive expectation that China will step on the gas at any time now to improve conditions. I rather doubt it, unless there is a far bigger, disorderly breakdown.

China needs to rebalance, and will. Slower and slower GDP growth will generally be the norm, most likely for years to come, perhaps interrupted by an occassional unsustainable spurt here or there.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Amazing Surge in Middle-Aged Folks Moving in With Parents

Posted: 22 Apr 2014 03:49 PM PDT

Moving back home with parents is not just for millennials. A large number of those aged 50 to 64 are moving back home, for economic reasons, not for providing care to aged parents.

The LA Times reports Moving in with Parents Becomes More Common for the Middle-Aged
At a time when the still sluggish economy has sent a flood of jobless young adults back home, older people are quietly moving in with their parents at twice the rate of their younger counterparts.

For seven years through 2012, the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents' homes swelled 67.6% to about 194,000, according to the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the Insight Center for Community Economic Development.

The jump is almost exclusively the result of financial hardship caused by the recession rather than for other reasons, such as the need to care for aging parents, said Steven P. Wallace, a UCLA professor of public health who crunched the data.

"The numbers are pretty amazing," Wallace said. "It's an age group that you normally think of as pretty financially stable. They're mid-career. They may be thinking ahead toward retirement. They've got a nest egg going. And then all of a sudden you see this huge push back into their parents' homes."

Many more young adults live with their parents than those in their 50s and early 60s live with theirs. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 1.6 million Californians have taken up residence in their childhood bedrooms, according to the data.

Though that's a 33% jump from 2006, the pace is half that of the 50 to 64 age group.

The surge in middle-aged people moving in with parents reflects the grim economic reality that has taken hold in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Long-term unemployment is especially acute for older people. The number of Americans 55 and older who have been out of work for a year or more was 617,000 at the end of December, a fivefold jump from the end of 2007 when the recession hit, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Those in their 50s move in only as a last resort. Many have exhausted savings. Some have jobs but can't shoulder soaring rents in areas such as Los Angeles or San Francisco.
The Fed thinks higher inflation is the answer. So does the ECB. One has to be lost in academic fantasyland to hold that view.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Threatens Negative Interest Rates; Bank of NY Mellon Threatens Charging for Euro Deposits

Posted: 22 Apr 2014 10:37 AM PDT

ECB president Mario Draghi has been making lots of noise recently about cutting interest rates because the euro is too strong and banks aren't lending enough.

Realistically, there's not much room to cut with rates already at a rock-bottom .25 percent.

Some suggest negative interest rates are just the ticket to spur lending. Should that happen, the Bank of New York Mellon Eyes Charging Clients for Euro Deposits.
Bank of New York Mellon said it was considering charging clients for depositing euros if the European Central Bank decides to cut key interest rates below zero.

The potential move by the world's biggest custody bank comes after Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, said last week that the region could require "further monetary stimulus" to offset a strengthening euro.

"If the eurozone were to go to negative rates that would actually present the opportunity for us to charge for deposits and we are giving that very serious consideration," Todd Gibbons, BNY Mellon's chief financial officer, said on a conference call as the bank unveiled its first-quarter earnings.
Reflections on Forcing Banks to Lend

For starters, banks lend when they believe they have creditworthy customers and lending is worth the risk.

An attempt to make banks lend to non-creditworthy customers is not only foolish but reckless. How many times do we have to march down that path to prove it?

Banks Should be Banks

Moreover, and as I have commented before, banks should be banks. I see nothing at all wrong with banks charging a slight fee for deposits.

Banks ought not be lending demand deposit accounts in the first place. The practice is fraudulent. Thus, it is natural for banks to charge for safekeeping of such deposits.

If the ECB forces banks into a corner where they have to start charging for deposits, arguably the system will be better off for it.

However, I cannot endorse the blatant manipulation of interest rates that has led to the low rates we see now. Interest rate manipulation does harm holders of interest-bearing accounts such as CDs who receive paltry returns for their investments.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com