Central Perk

vineri, 2 mai 2014

Seth's Blog : The short game, the long game and the infinite game

The short game, the long game and the infinite game

How long is your long run? I know people who measure the world in ten second flashes, and they're happy to do something they call generous for six seconds, as long as they get a payback before the ten seconds are up.

More common and more celebrated are people who play a longer game. They build an asset, earn trust, give before getting, and then, after paying their dues, win.

There's something else available, though, something James Carse calls an infinite game.

In finite games (short and long) there are players, there are rules and there are winners. The game is designed to end, and it's based on scarcity.

In the infinite game, though, something completely different is going on. In the infinite game, the point is to keep playing, not to win. In the infinite game, the journey is all there is. And so, players in an infinite game never stop giving so they can take. Players in this game throw a slower pitch so the batter can hit it, because a no-hitter shutout has no real upside.

A good mom, of course, always plays the infinite game. But it turns out that it's possible to build an organization or even a country that does this as well. Build hospitals and schools instead of forts and barricades...

You certainly know people who play this game, you may well have been touched by them, inspired by them and taught by them. The wrong question to ask is, "but how do they win?" The right way to understand it is, "but is it worth playing?"

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joi, 1 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Nearly Half in Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland Would Leave if They Could

Posted: 01 May 2014 11:31 AM PDT

A Gallup survey on looking for greener pastures shows Half in Illinois and Connecticut Want to Move Elsewhere.

Every state has at least some residents who are looking for greener pastures, but nowhere is the desire to move more prevalent than in Illinois and Connecticut. In both of these states, about half of residents say that if given the chance to move to a different state, they would like to do so. Maryland is a close third, at 47%. By contrast, in Montana, Hawaii, and Maine, just 23% say they would like to relocate. Nearly as few -- 24% -- feel this way in Oregon, New Hampshire, and Texas.

Nevada, Illinois, Maryland, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, and Connecticut all appear particularly vulnerable to losing population in the coming few years: high percentages of their residents say they would leave if they could, and larger-than-average percentages say they are at least somewhat likely to do so in the coming year. At the other end of the spectrum, Texas, Minnesota, and Maine have little to fear. Residents of these states are among the least likely to want to leave and few are planning to leave in the next 12 months.

Would Move If They Could

Likely to Move

Nevada, Illinois, and Arizona lead the way in states where people expect to move.

Reasons for Moving

Illinois, New York, and Maryland were the only states where taxes were a significant reason for wanting to move.

Illinois is at the bottom of the list in the friends and family category, and high in the work-related, weather, and quality of life reasons.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

IMF Warns Ukraine Bailout May Need "Significant Recalibration"; Separatists Storm More Buildings in Donetsk

Posted: 01 May 2014 10:15 AM PDT

If industrial-rich Eastern Ukraine falls the IMF Warns Bailout Needs "Significant Recalibration"

Armed men stormed the Donetsk regional prosecutors' office today, throwing stones and stun grenades. "The government doesn't control the situation in Donetsk as well as part of the Donetsk region," acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said yesterday in Kiev. "Because there is a real threat of Russia starting a continental war, our army is on full combat alert."

The IMF, which approved a $17 billion bailout for Ukraine early today, said "a significant recalibration of the program" might be required if the situation worsens.

Premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk said yesterday that Ukraine is ready to offer "additional guarantees" for Russian speakers, which the government in Moscow says are at risk after Putin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February.

Pro-Russia Separatists Storm Donetsk Prosecutor's Office

The Financial Times reports Pro-Russia separatists storm Donetsk prosecutor's office

Pro-Russia separatists strengthened their control of Ukraine's eastern regions on Thursday, storming the eastern Donetsk regional prosecutor's office, smashing windows, driving police out and ransacking the building.

Earlier, about 2,000 demonstrators marking the May day holiday marched through Donetsk, chanting "Rossiya" and demanding the release of Pavel Gubarev, the protesters' imprisoned "people's governor" in the region.

Separatists in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions plan to hold a referendum on May 11 on the creation of a 'Donetsk people's republic'. Kiev authorities oppose the vote, which they say would be illegal under Ukrainian law.

Ukraine's interim authorities launched an operation against the rebels in the east last week, which has made little apparent progress. Ukrainian army, interior ministry and police forces have set up or reinforced checkpoints around the regional rebel headquarters of Slavyansk, but made no attempt to enter the town, and faced criticism for the ineffectiveness of the operation.

Hryvnia vs. US Dollar

At the beginning of the year the hryvnia traded at 8.21 per US dollar. It now trades at 11.55 per dollar, a decline of 28.9%. On April 14, it traded at 13.16 to the dollar, a decline of 37.6%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Why I Can Never Lose Weight

Posted: 01 May 2014 09:54 AM PDT

Are you having a tough time getting in shape? Don't worry, we all have that problem and this is why.

Why Your Parents Should Never Be Allowed To Text

Posted: 01 May 2014 09:34 AM PDT

It's pretty common knowledge that most adults are bad with modern technology. Texting is no exception to that and this is a perfect example of why parents shouldn't be allowed to text.