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luni, 26 mai 2014

How your competitors got their Google rankings (see for yourself)

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SubmitStart · Trade Center · Kristian IV:s väg 3 · Halmstad 302 50 · Sweden

Seth's Blog : Three kinds of advertising

Three kinds of advertising

Direct response ads pay for themselves (at least they do when they work). Socially acceptable paid-for interruption leads to response, and the response (a sale, generally) generates revenue and you can run the ad again. Google's business is driven by direct response advertising.

Trust ads are generally unmeasurable. "I've heard of these guys, somewhere." Without consciously realizing it, we often choose to do business with the familiar, and ads increase familiarity. Particularly the right ad that runs in the right place. This is old school advertising, the first kind that appeared on TV. This is advertising that tells a story, advertising about belief, not necessarily action.

Demand enhancement ads remind us that on a hot day, we'd like a cold drink. They are ads designed to tickle and provoke, to increase the number of people in the market for what it is you sell. This is the best kind of billboard, the one that says, "next exit."

Every once in a while, an ad does all three things, but that's a foolish thing to hope for. Budget appropriately, because the very worst thing you can do with an ad is spend too little--it will get you the same results as spending nothing.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fun Night for the Eurosceptics: UKIP and Front National Storm Brussels; Infighting Begins

Posted: 25 May 2014 11:04 PM PDT

It was a fun night for the Eurosceptics.

Nigel Farage's UKIP was the top vote getter in the UK with about 29% of the vote
Marine Le Pen's Front National party was the top vote getter in France with 26% of the vote
The Danish People's party is the largest party in Denmark with about 25% of the vote
Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement is a likely second-place finisher in Italy
Alexis Tsipras' Syriza part is the top vote getter in Greece with about 26% of the vote

Eurosceptic Earthquake

The Financial Times reports Ukip Leads Populist Earthquake.

The UK Independence party and France's far-right Front National stormed to victory in European elections on Sunday night, as populist and nationalist parties across the continent dealt a heavy blow to the European project.

Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, said the result represented an "earthquake", while Marine Le Pen, the FN leader, said that there had been a "massive rejection of the EU"; mainstream politicians struggled to come to terms with what had happened.

Manuel Valls, the French socialist prime minister, called the FN victory "a shock, an earthquake that all responsible leaders must respond to", as President François Hollande prepared to convene his cabinet to discuss the result.

In Britain, Labour was battling with Tories for second place , with the opposition party expected to just edge it. Nick Clegg, the pro-European Liberal Democrat leader who confronted Mr Farage in two televised debates on Europe, was set to lose most of his 12 MEPs. By 2am the Lib Dems had won just one seat, with London results delayed. Danny Alexander, Lib Dem Treasury minister, said the results were "pretty awful".

Eurosceptics Storm Brussels

Also consider Eurosceptics Storm Brussels

France's far-right Front National stormed to victory in European elections on Sunday night, leading an unprecedented surge in support for anti-EU parties across Europe that was set to reverberate far beyond Brussels politics.

The FN, led by Marine le Pen, claimed victory against both the centre-right UMP and President François Hollande's ruling Socialist party for the first time in a nationwide vote, a stunning defeat for the mainstream parties in Europe's second-largest economy.

Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, called the FN victory "a shock, an earthquake that all responsible leaders must respond to".

Ms Le Pen said the victory for the fiercely anti-EU and anti-immigration FN was an "immense honour", declaring: "What has happened tonight is a massive rejection of the EU."

She said it was the "first step in a long march" to the "recovery of our identity" from the EU and the end of austerity policies.

The FN was expected to take 25 of France's 74 seats in the European parliament, up from the three seats it won in the last election in 2009. It was the most dramatic result achieved by the party since Ms Le Pen's father Jean-Marie Le Pen won through to the final round of the presidential election in 2002.

In Germany, the neo-Nazi party was expected to win one seat in the assembly for the first time. The anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party was set to get 7 per cent.

Jean-Francois Copé, president of the UMP, conceded defeat in France, saying the FN vote was a sign of "gigantic anger" among the French electorate against the policies of Mr Hollande. The Socialist party, also hammered in local elections in March, was beaten into third place in one of its worst election defeats in France.

The gains of the populists could be sufficient for Ms Le Pen to form an anti-EU group with other like-minded parties. That would give them extra funds and speaking rights to destroy the "Brussels monster".

According to exit polls released by the European Parliament, the European People's party centre-right grouping in the assembly is set to win the elections with 212 seats, followed by the Socialists with 185; the Liberals with 71; and the Greens 55. Eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties from both left and right won 228 seats.

Congratulations for a well-deserved victory for the Eurosceptics.

That said, don't expect much change. As noted before, the center-left and center-right parties will act in union to block any anti-euro measures.

Race for Commission Presidency

The EU Observer reports Juncker Declares Victory in Race for Commission Presidency.

Jean-Claude Juncker declared victory in the European elections on Sunday (25 May), and staked his claim as the first man in line to claim the European Commission presidency.

With partial results and exit polls suggesting that the centre-right EPP had claimed 212 seats in the European Parliament to 185 Socialists, Juncker, the former prime minister of Luxembourg, was presented as the next president of the EU executive by jubilant party supporters.

"As lead candidate of the largest party, I have won the election," he told reporters in the Parliament hemicycle. "The EPP has got a clear lead, a clear victory."

He also insisted that he would not stand aside for another EPP candidate and issued a warning to EU leaders not to "ignore" the results by opting to "select the President in corridors".

Leaders of the Parliament's political groups will meet on Tuesday morning to begin the process of allowing a candidate to build a majority in the EU assembly. EU leaders will then gather in Brussels on Tuesday evening to have their first discussions following the elections.

Following nomination by EU leaders, a successful candidate will need the support of at least 376 deputies in the 751-member Parliament.

But Juncker stated that he would seek to build a broad majority of pro-European forces, including the Green and Liberal groups as well as the Socialists.

"I will not be on my knees with the Socialist party … but even party No 1 has to make compromises," he said, adding that he had "a lot of sympathy with Greens and friends in the Liberal group".

But Socialist candidate Martin Schulz refused to concede defeat and insisted that he, as well as Juncker, would try to form a majority.

Infighting Begins

And so the coalition infighting begins. The Euroscpetics will not vote for either Juncker or Schulz so it is going to be a difficult process coming up with 376 votes.

Should Juncker ultimately prevail, he will not be willing to bow down to UK prime minister David Cameron's proposed rule changes.

The whole setup is messier than it appears at first glance. Significant rule changes which Cameron has promised before an up-down vote on the UK staying in the EU seems highly unlikely, at best, no matter who triumphs as EC president.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Driverless Cars Legally Hit Roads as California Issues Licenses; The Last Mile

Posted: 25 May 2014 09:59 AM PDT

In August of 2013 I wrote Message to 5.7 Million Truck Drivers "No Drivers Needed" Your Job is About to Vanish.

The key word in that sentence is "about". I did not mean immediately, but I did mean a lot sooner than truck drivers and the general public expect. Most protested. I received many emails saying this would not happen for decades.

Many truck drivers thought it would never happen. Most mentioned insurance issues. Yes, there are problems, but time has marched on even quicker than I thought.

TechCrunch reports California Will Start Granting Licenses For Driverless Cars In September.

Come September, the California Department of Motor Vehicles will begin granting licenses to select driverless cars and their human co-pilots, which will make it a bit less legally iffy as to whether or not they're actually allowed to be on a public road.

The good news: The license will only cost $150 a pop, and that covers 10 vehicles and up to 20 test drivers.

The bad (but probably actually good) news: You probably can't get one, so don't go trying to make your own Googlecar just yet.

Stiff License Terms

Yes, the terms of the license are stiff including $5,000,000 insurance against personal injury, death, or property damage. And a test driver has to be able to take immediate control of the car at all times.

Nonetheless, the licensing is a big step forward. Totally driverless cars are but a single step away. All that needs to happen is for California to eliminate the requirement that someone has to be in the car at all times to take control.

A big issue is that radar can detect size and shape of objects, but it does not have human judgement regarding danger. For example, a balloon blowing across the road is a much different thing from a hunk of metal the same size sitting in the road.

Such difficulties will be overcome.

Incentives and Implications

The implications on the shipping business are staggering. A full-time truck driver might cost as much as $100,000 a year. The incentive to get rid of millions of full-time drivers is massive.

A July 2013 Truckers Report headline reads ATA: Self-Driving Trucks Are "Close To Inevitable"

However, the article itself dismissed the idea totally.

"People come up with these grandiose ideas," says Bob Esler, a commercial trucker for almost 50 years. "How are you going to get the truck into a dock or fuel it?"

And then there's loading and unloading. Pre-trip inspections. Signing for drop-offs and pickups. Making sure cargo is properly secured. Making sure the cargo that's being loaded actually gets loaded. The list just keeps going on and on.

The Last Mile

Many of the objections in the above article have to do with the last mile. Let's assume someone has to load the truck. Let's also assume an actual skilled driver has to dock the truck and make the final delivery (arguably a bad assumption).

Yet, even if those assumptions are true, nothing stops a trucking company from having distribution facilities right off an interstate near major cities, where local drivers deliver the goods the last mile.

Why can't all but the last few miles be driverless even if a skilled driver is needed some step of the way for safety reasons?

Technology marches on at a breathtaking pace. We might actually see commercial driverless vehicles on the roads within a few years.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

duminică, 25 mai 2014

Seth's Blog : Asking or announcing...

Asking or announcing...

When you ask someone if they would use your new product, buy your new widget or participate in your new service once it's ready, you will get a lie in response.

It might be a generous lie ("sure, I love this") or it might be a fearful lie ("here are the six reasons I would never use this"). The fearful lies cause us to scale back, to shave off, to go for mediocre. And the generous lies push us to launch stuff that's just not very good.

People don't mean to mess you up, but you've made the error of asking them to imagine a future they have trouble imagining. It's incredibly different than asking them to justify what they already do. "Why did you buy that particular car?" queries a completely different part of the brain than, "would you buy this new kind of car?"

Imagine the early focus groups for an early modern car. "Why does the transmission say 'd' instead of 'f'? F means forward!" "Why doesn't the window work the way the windows in my house work?" "There should be a lot of warnings on this thing, it could kill someone." "There's a radio? Why don't you make the car good at just one thing..."

It's one thing for someone to explain why they read and liked a particular book. It's another to ask them if they would read it, or even publish it. Almost everyone is horribly bad at this sort of explanation.

Steve Krug has written a really useful book about this. The takeaway is to never again run an amateur focus group, never ask an investor to help you think about what the market wants. Instead, we have to show, not tell, must create environments where people choose, then ask them why.

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sâmbătă, 24 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Former Bundesbank Vice-President Recommends Gold, Says Current Economic System is "Pure Fiction"

Posted: 24 May 2014 09:43 PM PDT

Anyone who is thinking clearly knows the economic system fostered by central banks is totally and completely out of control.

Repetitive rounds of QE, competitive currency debasement, interest rates at zero, and sponsorship of the internet bubble followed by the housing bubble, followed by the current stock market bubble is proof enough.

So, what I am about to report is really nothing but common sense, except for the fact that it comes from an unusual place, where one does not normally hear such discussions.

Jürgen Stark, former vice president of the Bundesbank, and also former chief economist of the ECB (unofficial title) says "The System is Out of Control". Via translation from Libre Mercado, here are a few snips.

Stark, until recently one of the big hawks central bank of Germany for his fierce defense of monetary orthodoxy, resigned in late 2011 for his outright rejection to the purchase of government bonds by the ECB launched the president of the institution Jean Claude Trichet. Since then, Stark has used his rare, but valuable public appearances to warn of the risks associated with the current policy of central banks to the crisis.

In a conference organized by the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Germany, recommended to protect the attendees directly against a probable collapse of the global monetary system. Stark spoke openly.

Stark noted that central banks, including the ECB, "have completely lost all ability to control and perspective on the economic situation."

The monetary system was saved in 2011 through concerted action by major central banks worldwide. But, according to Stark, the whole system is "pure fiction". The monetary authorities have been groping since 2008 to avoid a second Lehman Brothers, but if happen, "the system will not survive," he warned.

The problem is the monetary model itself. That is, the printing of paper currency without real backing and the multiplier by which the commercial banks can expand credit-uncontrolled without prior savings. Stark recommended allocating part of this fictional savings to investment in traditional "safe havens" such as gold or silver.

Also, in another lecture delivered last week in Paris, Stark noted that the fragile recovery in Europe is not due to the absence of monetary and fiscal stimuli (low rates, debt purchase, etc..) and (more government spending) but the slow deleveraging and lack of structural reforms.

Far from helping, the loose monetary policy of the ECB is hampering the recovery, as advanced free market on multiple occasions. The key to growth, create jobs and end the crisis on solid foundations, as Stark, is to increase competitiveness. And to do so, "we must continue gaining flexibility. Progress has been made, but still not enough. The situation has improved, but the crisis is not over."

"the probability of default, as is reflected in the markets are too low," he added. The expert was critical of the downside risks caused by the fall in spreads and insurance against default (CDS), as attributes, especially the artificial ECB action.

"Capital appreciation has grown stronger euro. But the crisis markets are distorted. We should not be too happy with what happened," he mused.

System is Pure Fiction

Stark is preaching to the choir, but it is appreciated. One does not normally hear such statements from central bankers or even ex-central bankers.

That said, his statements would carry more weight if he was still with the Bundesbank. I wish Stark never left.

Supposedly Stark Left for Personal Reasons but it's easy to discern he was fed up with being the only member of the ECB with a clue.

You can only beat your head against the wall so many times before you lose all sense of hope and finally your mind.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Regulator Fines Barclays for Gold Manipulation: Permanent Price Suppression?

Posted: 24 May 2014 09:30 AM PDT

A couple of readers asked me to comment on the news Regulator Fines Barclays Over the Pricing of Gold.

A British financial regulator has fined Barclays $43.9 million after accusing a former trader at the bank of improperly influencing gold prices at the expense of a customer.

The F.C.A. also fined the former Barclays trader, Daniel James Plunkett, £95,600 and barred him from participating in any regulated financial activity. The authority said Mr. Plunkett, who settled with it, had profited at the expense of a customer, who was later fully compensated by Barclays.

Mr. Plunkett's improper conduct occurred on June 28, 2012, the day after the regulator and United States authorities announced a $450 million fine against Barclays for improperly influencing global benchmark interest rates, including the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, the regulator said.

"A firm's lack of controls and a trader's disregard for a customer's interests have allowed the financial services industry's reputation to be sullied again," Tracey McDermott, the F.C.A. director of enforcement and financial crime, said in a statement. "Traders who might be tempted to exploit their clients for a quick buck should be in no doubt — such behavior will cost you your reputation and your livelihood."

The process of setting the benchmark price for gold in London dates to 1919. It is set twice a day by five banks that serve as market makers, according to the London Bullion Market Association. Those banks are Barclays, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank, Scotiabank and HSBC.

The silver fixing process in London, which has only three participating banks, is set to end in August after Deutsche Bank leaves the panel.

Deutsche Bank said this year that it would withdraw from fixing gold and silver prices as part of its plan to exit some commodities businesses because of regulatory concerns.

On Friday, the F.C.A. accused Mr. Plunkett, a director on the Barclays precious metals desk, of placing orders intended to drive down the price of gold during the 3 p.m. fixing period in London on June 28, 2012. Doing so allowed Barclays to avoid a $3.9 million payment to customer on an options contract that was tied to the price of gold during that period, the regulator said.

As a result, Mr. Plunkett's trading book, excluding hedging, recorded a profit of $1.75 million. Mr. Plunkett was responsible for pricing products linked to the price of precious metals and managing Barclays's exposure to those products.

Gold Manipulation Details

ZeroHedge has specific details of what took place in "I Am Hoping For A Mini Puke": Details Of Barclays' Gold Manipulation

LIBOR Manipulation, Euribor manipulation

Barclays was the first to admit guilt in manipulating LIBOR, but numerous banks were guilty. The BBC has an interesting article on the Timeline of the Libor-Fixing Scandal.

The Financial Times notes Euribor manipulation involving HSBC, JPMorgan and Crédit Agricole. For details, please see Brussels Charges Banks for Euribor Fixing.

Surprising?

No one should be shocked by this. Manipulation occurs all the time, in both directions, by all the big players, in numerous markets.

Guess what would have happened if Plunkett's client had $10 million in PUTs betting the price of gold would have declined. Does anyone think Plunkett would not have done what he could to force the price of gold up?

Although the recent spikes at illiquid times have been to the downside, details of how that "fixing" occurred, still support my two basic theories.

The Fed is not behind the manipulation
The motive is profit, not a permanent price-suppression conspiracy

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Paying Tribute to Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

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Weekly Address: Paying Tribute to Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

In this week's address, President Obama commemorated Memorial Day by honoring the brave men and women in uniform who have given their lives in service to our country. As we stand with our veterans and military families this weekend, the President underscored our commitment to uphold our nation's sacred trust with our veterans and ensure they get the benefits and opportunities they deserve and have earned.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : To be seen

To be seen

A recent article outlines how NFL cheerleaders are paid less than minimum wage, disrespected and treated quite poorly. So why do they put up with this lousy behavior?

In many ways, the appeal is an extension of what we were taught in high school. To be seen, to be noticed, to be picked. Even more than that, it's part of the human condition: To be part of something, in a small way, to matter.

Despite the obvious inequity of working for free for billionaires to celebrate players paid millions on behalf of advertisers earning even more, despite the conditions and the insults, people keep trying out to be picked by the team. For now.

The shift that's happening due to the long-tail open nature of new media, though, is that it's easier than ever to pick yourself and to be seen (even if it's not on national TV). It's easier than ever to start your own dance troupe, to build a group that will travel to cheer enthusiastically, for hire. It's easier than ever for anyone to be seen in videos or heard in podcasts or read online.

The fascinating lesson about human nature is that people aren't always driven by a rational analysis of work as an exchange of labor for cash. We want to be seen and we seek to belong. It's a shame when an organization takes advantage of that and treats people unfairly.

When we offer people a chance to matter and to be seen, we have the chance to offer them something magical.

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luni, 26 mai 2014

How your competitors got their Google rankings (see for yourself)

Seth's Blog : Three kinds of advertising

Three kinds of advertising

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Seth's Blog : Asking or announcing...

Asking or announcing...

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sâmbătă, 24 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Paying Tribute to Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

Seth's Blog : To be seen

To be seen

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