luni, 15 septembrie 2014

Seth's Blog : The most important thing

 

The most important thing

The next thing you do today will be the most important thing on your agenda, because, after all, you're doing it next.

Well, perhaps it will be the most urgent thing. Or the easiest.

In fact, the most important thing probably isn't even on your agenda.

       

 

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duminică, 14 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


47% of Chinese Billionaires Want to Leave China Within 5 Years, Only 6% of US Billionaires Seek to Leave US

Posted: 14 Sep 2014 10:36 PM PDT

A Barclays' survey of over 2,000 individuals with a net worth over $1.5 billion contains some pretty interesting results.

Those in China and Singapore are most likely to leave their country, while those in the US and India were most likely to stay.

Please consider Almost Half of Wealthy Chinese Want to Leave.
Nearly half of wealthy Chinese are planning to move to another country within the next five years, according to a new Barclays survey.

Singaporeans were the second-most eager to flee home, with 23% planning to relocate in five years, followed by 20% for the U.K. and 16% for Hong Kong. Indian and American rich are the least likely to move, with only 5% and 6% of respondents saying they would relocate.



The top reasons Chinese cite for moving abroad are better educational and employment opportunities for children (78%), economic security and desirable climate (73%), and better health care and social services (18%). Hong Kong is their top destination (30%), followed by Canada (23%).
I am not surprised that a large percentage of extremely wealthy Chinese hope to relocate to another country within 5 years. However, I am surprised by the reasons given.

I would have expected air and water pollution to be a one of the top reasons. Instead, education, employment opportunities, and economic security headed up the list.

For health reasons alone (air and water pollution), I could never live in China. Politics, freedom of expression, food, and the sheer number of people living in the country add to my list of reasons.

Curiously, China was the top choice of 30% of those who would leave Singapore.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Stiglitz vs. Krugman on Scotland; Polls Diverge; New Fearmongering Tactics in Waning Moments of Campaign

Posted: 14 Sep 2014 10:12 AM PDT

New Fearmongering Tactics

In the waning moments UK prime Minister David Cameron warns Scots "Leave and You Go Forever".

Actually, the warning probably should be "Stay and you stay forever" because the UK will never allow such a vote again.

Regardless, no country should want to be under the thumb of another.

Polls Diverge

The vote for Scottish independence is now too close to call. In a Scottish Poll Roundup one new poll over the weekend shows the "Yes" vote with a substantial 54-46 lead, but most polls show the "No" vote with a tiny lead.

  • ICM (online) 54%
  • Panelbase (online) 49%
  • ICM (phone) 49%
  • TNS (face to face) 49%
  • YouGov (online) 48%
  • Opinium (online) 47%
  • Survation (online) 47%
  • Survation (phone) 46%

If we ignore undecided voters, then judging from the last US presidential election when Nate Silver proved preponderance and clustering more important than margins-of-error which purportedly showed the election "too close to call", one might assume the "No" vote will carry the day.

I sided with Silver and called for an easy electoral college blowout, and that is precisely what happened.

But this is Scotland not the US, the undecided voters are many, and this is an overall vote not a state-by-state electoral college total.

Which way the undecideds break will determine the outcome.

Stiglitz vs. Krugman on Scotland

Bloomberg reports Scots Independence Campaign Nears Climax as Polls Diverge.
Activists were out in force across Scotland during the final weekend before the Sept. 18 ballot that might trigger the breakup of the union after more than three centuries. With opinion polls showing contradictory findings, both the "yes" and "no" campaigns said they were poised to win, introducing further uncertainty to financial markets fixed on Scotland.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, the head of the pro-independence campaign, and Alistair Darling, the former U.K. chancellor of the exchequer who fronts the Better Together group, reprised arguments today over the economy, the pound and state-funded health care if Scots back independence. With the debate increasingly polarized, the focus now is on appealing to undecided voters in the final three days of the campaign.

"Independence may have its costs, although these have yet to be demonstrated convincingly; but it will also have its benefits," Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate economist who was part of a panel that advised Salmond, said in an op-ed published in the Glasgow-based Sunday Herald newspaper.

Stiglitz, in his op-ed, cast doubt on the assertions made about Scotland post-independence, singling out fellow Nobel laureate Paul Krugman's comments about economies of scale.

"By an order of magnitude, far more important than size is the pursuit of the right policies," said Stiglitz. "There is, in fact, little basis for any of the forms of fear-mongering that have been advanced."
Stiglitz or Krugman?

Both Stiglitz and Krugman are Nobel Prize winning economists. I seldom side with either of them. In this case they take opposite views, so one of them must have the better argument.

Stiglitsz is the clear winner. Economies of scale don't matter if the underlying policies are inefficient.

Scotland would have the chance to come up with its own corporate tax policies that would eventually attract far more businesses and jobs than the alleged financial jobs it would lose if it votes for independence.

That said, given the Labour party dominates Scotland, it is highly debatable whether Scotland would make the right corporate tax policies (but at least they would have a chance). And over time, voting preference can change.

Cameron Scared, UKIP Delighted

Moreover, and what probably has Cameron and Labour scared half to death, is that a "Yes" vote strongly increases the odds the UK leaves the EU.

Why?

This has not been widely discussed in mainstream media, but those Labour votes vanish from UK parliament and from UK in general. As a result UKIP and the anti-EU vote would get a big boost. That would be a good thing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Toothless Barking Dogs; Don't Like the Rules? Then Ignore Them: French Style

Posted: 14 Sep 2014 12:05 AM PDT

Don't Like the Rules? Then Ignore Them: French Style

When it comes to fiscal policy in the EU, you can break whatever fiscal rules you want, provided you are big enough.

France qualifies, so does Germany. If you are small like Greece and Cyprus, then you may find yourself in bed with the Troika.

For the third time France Warns of Budget Overshoot
France has declared it will heavily overshoot its already twice-delayed budget deficit target next year, setting up tough negotiations with European partners previously reluctant to grant Paris more time to bring its public finances within EU limits.

Michel Sapin, finance minister, announced that the required deficit target of 3 per cent of national output was being pushed back a further two years to 2017 in the latest sign of the deep-seated economic problems confronting President François Hollande and his socialist government.

Mr Sapin said the deficit would reach 4.3 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015 after a level of 4.4 per cent this year – the latter also a big overshoot of earlier estimates and the first annual rise in the deficit for several years.

He blamed the situation on the slow rate of economic growth and low inflation, saying France demanded that the EU "collectively take into account" an economic slump "unprecedented in recent European history".
Joke of the Day

The German finance ministry said: "We assume that all member countries of the eurozone stick to the rules. Otherwise we risk our credibility."

Credibility? What credibility? How can anyone speak about credibility when France , Spain, and Italy miss deficit targets over and over and over again?

Toothless Howling Dogs

Like toothless howling dogs, Eurozone Leaders Warn on Fiscal Rules, shortly after the French budget announcement.
Eurozone leaders warned the currency bloc risks facing a new market backlash if it strays from its fiscal rules, an apparent message to France and Italy that their push for more flexibility will be viewed sceptically when they submit their budgets to Brussels next month.

The admonition, from leaders of the European Commission, European Central Bank and eurozone finance ministers, came just 48 hours after the French government announced it would blow through the EU's budget deficit limit of 3 per cent of economic output next year. Instead, Paris projected a 4.3 per cent deficit.

EU officials said ministers from smaller countries who have already implemented tough reforms complained during a closed-door session that any loosening of the rules now would be seen as double standards.

The debate over how much flexibility the European Commission will allow Paris and Rome threatens to become one of the most contentious political issues facing the EU. An Italian-led group of struggling economies has pushed for the rules to be interpreted leniently, arguing the lack of public spending is exacerbating what is threatening to become a triple-dip recession.

In a tweet on Thursday, Matteo Renzi, Italy's prime minister, said his country did not "expect to be lectured by EU," calling for a swift implementation of a €300bn investment plan mooted by the new European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.

As part of a push to stimulate growth, Mr Draghi last week announced a plan to purchase asset-backed securities held by eurozone banks. He also urged national governments to guarantee the riskier portions of the securities to free up cash for loans to consumers and businesses.

Both France and Germany have indicated they oppose such government guarantees, however, and Mr Dijsselbloem said the Netherlands, where banks hold significant quantities of mortgage debt, would also not guarantee such purchases.
Expect Nothing But Howls

Will the EU do anything about France? Other than yapping and shifting deficit timelines "for the last time" the answer is the same as always: Of course not.

And will France, Germany, and the Netherlands do what the ECB wants in regards to guaranteeing debt? Apparently not, and they would be foolish to do so.

Will there be any major stimulus efforts like France and Italy want? No again. Germany and the Netherlands won't go along.

Instead, expect all the dogs to remain seated in a big circle, howling at each other as well as the moon, without giving the slightest look at one of the basic problems, the euro itself.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Without a keyboard

 

Without a keyboard

When the masses only connect to the net without a keyboard, who will be left to change the world?

It is possible but unlikely that someone will write a great novel on a tablet.

You can't create the spreadsheet that changes an industry on a smart phone.

And professional programmers don't sit down to do their programming with a swipe.

Many people are quietly giving away one of the most powerful tools ever created—the ability to craft and spread revolutionary ideas. Coding, writing, persuading, calculating—they still matter. Yes, of course the media that's being created on the spot, the live, the intuitive, this matters. But that doesn't mean we don't desperately need people like you to dig in and type.

The trendy thing to do is say that whatever technology and the masses want must be a good thing. But sometimes, what technology wants isn't what's going to change our lives for the better.

The public square is more public than ever, but minds are rarely changed in 140 character bursts and by selfies.

       

 

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sâmbătă, 13 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


China Industrial Growth Slows, Power Generation Negative 1st Time in 4 Years; Stimulate Now, Crash Later

Posted: 13 Sep 2014 10:46 AM PDT

Cries for more stimulus ring loudly in China because Chinese industrial output slowed to 6.9%. That is a number that any country in the world would be more than pleased with, but China's target is 7.5%.

Why 7.5%? In fact, why should there be any targets at all? The economy is not a car that can be steered by bureaucrats to perfection.

Nonetheless, Calls Grow for More Stimulus, as China August Factory Growth Slows to Near Six-Year Low.
China's factory output grew at the weakest pace in nearly six years in August while growth in other key sectors also cooled, raising fears the world's second-largest economy may be at risk of a sharp slowdown unless Beijing takes fresh stimulus measures.

Industrial output rose 6.9 percent in August from a year earlier - the lowest since 2008 when the economy was buffeted by the global financial crisis - compared with expectations for 8.8 percent and slowing sharply from 9.0 percent in July.

"The August data may point to a hard landing. The extent of the growth slowdown in the third quarter won't be small," said Xu Gao, chief economist at Everbright Securities in Beijing.

Some analysts believe annual economic growth may be sliding towards 7 percent in the third quarter, putting the government's full-year target of around 7.5 percent in jeopardy unless it takes more aggressive action. Experts reckon output growth of around 9 percent would be needed to attain such a goal.

Reinforcing the tepid economic activity, China's power generation declined for the first time in four years, falling 2.2 percent in August from a year earlier, and pointing to slackening demand from major industrial users.

Jiang Yuan, a senior statistician with the bureau, said the dip in August factory growth was due to weak global demand, especially from emerging markets, and the slowdown in the property sector that hit demand for steel, cement and vehicles.

The last time China suffered a "hard landing" was during the height of the global crisis, when economic growth tumbled to 6.6 percent in early 2009. That is far short of the near collapses which loomed over some developed economies, but still threw tens of millions of Chinese out of work, alarming the Communist Party's stability-obsessed leaders into action.
China's Economic Numbers

  • Industrial Output: +6.9%
  • Power Generation: -2.2%
  • Retail Sales: +11.9%
  • Fixed Asset Investment: +16.9%
  • Mortgages issuance: -4.5%

End of the Line for China's Growth

That set of numbers should raise concerns about overheating, not worries over economic slowdowns.

Yet, "The government must take forceful policy measures to stabilize growth," said Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.

It's time to be realistic. China cannot and will not grow at 7% forever.

Stimulate Now, Crash Later

Calls for more stimulus with the above set of numbers is beyond ridiculous given China's vacant malls, massive pollution problems, unused rail lines, reckless investment in SOEs, and even entire vacant cities.

Malinvestment is already rampant. Additional stimulus now to meet arbitrary growth targets will cause a crash later. China will be lucky to average 2% growth for a decade. Outright contraction in some years is not out of the question.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Yes" Makes 100% Perfect Sense for Scotland; Too Close to Call; Strange Bedfellows

Posted: 13 Sep 2014 12:44 AM PDT

Scotland Vote Too Close to Call

Here's some good news for those rooting for Scottish independence:

In spite of a massive fearmongering campaign by both Labour and Tories in the UK, Scots Independence Race Tightens Six Days Before Ballot.
Scotland's nationalists drew closer to the Better Together campaign in the latest poll on independence before the referendum, making the run-in to the Sept. 18 vote too close to call.

The poll of 1,000 people for the Guardian newspaper yesterday put support for "yes" on 49 percent and "no" on 51 percent after excluding undecided voters. It is the fourth poll in a week to put the "yes" side within the 3 percent error margin of victory. Only one of those has had the pro-independence side ahead.

Women vs Men


Women backed staying in the U.K. by 55 percent to 45 percent, while men favored independence by 52 percent to 48 percent.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc was among lenders to announce contingency plans this week to move some operations out of Scotland in the event of a "yes" vote. Salmond demanded a probe into the disclosure, first reported by the BBC citing a Treasury source, accusing the government of deliberate "scaremongering" by briefing sensitive information before the referendum.

Utter Nonsense

Business leader, Tim Martin, the chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon Plc (JDW), was dismissive of warnings from businesses about the costs of independence. "Most of what has been said has been utter nonsense," he told BBC Radio.

"New Zealand has got a similar population to Scotland, its own currency and it does tremendously well; Singapore -- fantastic economy, only 2 or 3 million people; Switzerland does very well," he said. "There's obviously no reason why Scotland can't have its own government if that's what the Scots want."
"Scotland Better Off On Its Own

In response to RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes; Catalans Stage Mass Protest for Independence Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this pertinent comment:

"Scotland will be better off on its own. It matters not one whit where these companies are headquartered. In fact, an independent Scotland would be able to introduce a regulatory and tax regime that makes it irresistible to foreign companies."

Bingo!

    1. The EU is concerned that Scotland may lower corporate taxes and pull business from elsewhere.
    2. Labour is concerned about the loss of Labour votes in the UK parliament.
    3. Spain and the EU are concerned that a Scotland "yes" vote for independence will cause Catalans to do the same.
    4. Cameron is worried that he may actually have to put a British EU exit to vote if "Yes" passes.

      Strange Bedfellows

      Politics makes strange bedfellows and the above four points show why.

      "Yes" Makes 100% Perfect Sense for Scotland

      Scotland has far better opportunities on its own. Any loss in business of financial industries could easily be regained elsewhere.

      The only caveat is that Scotland would have to implement tax reforms to make that happen.

      Regardless, the success or failure of independence would be up to the Scots. Yet, compared to being slaves to Britain, that is the better choice by far.

      Mike "Mish" Shedlock
      http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

      20 years ago today:

       

      Twenty years ago today, the Violence Against Women Act was signed into law. It remains my proudest legislative achievement -- but it didn't happen because of me.

      It happened because, at a time when kicking a woman in the stomach or pushing her down the stairs was not taken seriously as a crime -- and at a time when domestic violence against women was considered a "family affair" -- something remarkable happened.

      Incredibly brave and courageous women began speaking up.

      Women like Marla, a model whose face was slashed by two men because she'd refused her landlord's entrees, and who was questioned for 20 minutes during the trial about why she was wearing a miniskirt. As if she had asked for or welcomed this repugnant act of violence. Marla spoke out.

      Women like Christine, who was raped in a dorm room by a friend's boyfriend. Christine said she hadn't even known she'd been raped, because she'd known the man. But Christine added her voice.

      There were so many more. Women who had their arms broken with hammers and heads beaten with pipes, who were among the 21,000 women who were assaulted, raped, and murdered in a single week in America at the time.

      All of these women are victims. But they're also survivors.

      And because they spoke up, the conversation changed and a national consensus formed to do something to protect them. Their stories -- experiences shared by millions more women -- put this issue front and center before the American people. The country was forced to see the rawest form of violence and acknowledge the culture that hid it. And they began to demand change as a result. Local coalitions of shelters and rape centers led the way. National women's groups and civil rights organizations got on board. And a bipartisan group in Congress got the bill to President Clinton's desk.

      That's how we got this law enacted.

      And with each reauthorization, we added more protections. In 2000, we included a definition of dating violence. In 2005, we invested in health providers to screen patients for domestic violence and associated long-term psychological and physical health. And in 2013, we made VAWA services available to LGBT Americans and restored authority for tribes to prosecute non-Indian offenders. As a result, over the years, we've seen domestic violence rates drop significantly, fundamental reforms of state laws, and higher rates of convictions for special-victims units.

      But we know our work here is never done. This past week, I announced that we'll bring together legal experts, scholars, and advocates to convene a White House Summit on Civil Rights and Equal Protection for Women because we know bias against victims of rape and sexual assault still exist in our criminal justice system -- and we must make clear every victim has a basic civil right to equal protection under the law.

      And if you need information and resources about how to respond and prevent sexual assault in our schools and on our college campuses, you can visit NotAlone.gov.

      And if, God forbid, you're experiencing this sort of violence or know someone who is, you can get help. You can do it right now. There is a network of passionate and dedicated folks all across the country who are ready to listen. It's anonymous, and it's safe. In fact, VAWA created the National Domestic Violence Hotline, which you can visit here,* or dial 1-800-799-SAFE (7233) right now for help and advice.

      Twenty years after the Violence Against Women Act was enacted, I remain hopeful as ever that the decency of the American people will keep us moving forward.

      They understand that the true character of our country is measured when violence against women is no longer accepted as society's secret, and where we all understand that even one case is too many.

      Thank you,

      Vice President Joe Biden


       

      Weekly Address: We Will Degrade and Destroy ISIL

       
      Here's what's going on at the White House today.
       
       
       
       
       
        Featured

      Weekly Address: We Will Degrade and Destroy ISIL

      In this week's address, the President reiterated his comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group ISIL.

      His plan brings together a campaign of targeted airstrikes, increased support for Iraqi and Kurdish forces already taking on terrorists, assistance from allies and partners, expanded efforts to train and equip the Syrian opposition, and ongoing humanitarian aid for those displaced by ISIL. The President expressed his immense appreciation for the military men and women who make these efforts possible, and reminded the world that America continues to lead and stand strong against terror.

      Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

      Watch: President Obama delivers the weekly address.


       
       
        Top Stories

      "If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven."

      On Wednesday evening, from the State Floor of the White House, President Obama spoke to the American people about our comprehensive strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).

      ISIL was formerly al Qaeda's affiliate in Iraq and has since infiltrated territories on both sides of the Iraq-Syrian border. Although ISIL calls itself the "Islamic State," the President highlighted that:

      ISIL is not 'Islamic.' No religion condones the killing of innocents, and the vast majority of ISIL's victims have been Muslim. And ISIL is certainly not a state. ... It is recognized by no government, nor the people it subjugates.

      President Obama delivers a statement on ISIL.

      READ MORE

      President Obama Commemorates the 13th Anniversary of the 9/11 Attacks

      On Thursday, the President, First Lady, and Vice President joined Americans across the country to mark the anniversary of 9/11 through acts of service and remembrance.

      At 8:46 a.m. ET -- the time that the first plane hit the World Trade Center -- the President, First Lady, and Vice President observed a moment of silence to honor the memories of those lost in the horrific acts of terror that took place 13 years ago.

      President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, and Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, listen to the national anthem during the September 11th Observance Ceremony at the Pentagon Memorial in Arlington, Va., Sept. 11, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

      President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, and Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, listen to the national anthem during the September 11th Observance Ceremony at the Pentagon Memorial in Arlington, Va., Sept. 11, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

      READ MORE

      Marking the 20th Anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA)

      This week marks the 20th anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act -- a groundbreaking piece of legislation that helped change an era in American history. On Tuesday, speaking in front of the U.S. Constitution at the National Archives, the Vice President explained just how far we've come since the passage of the bill:

      "Even just 20 years ago," he said, "few people wanted to talk about violence against women as a national epidemic, let alone something to do something about."

      Vice President Joe Biden speaks on the 20th anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act, at the National Archives, in Washington, D.C. September 9, 2014. (Official White House Photo by David Lienemann)

      Vice President Joe Biden speaks on the 20th anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act, at the National Archives, in Washington, D.C. September 9, 2014. (Official White House Photo by David Lienemann)

      While we've made great strides in addressing heinous crimes against women, the Vice President made it clear that we're not done with this fight:

      When violence against women is no longer societally accepted, no longer kept secret; when everyone understands that even one case is too many. That's when it will change.

      READ MORE

      The First Lady Holds a "Prep" Rally in Atlanta

      On Tuesday, as part of her Reach Higher Initiative, the First Lady joined Secretary Arne Duncan at Booker T. Washington High School in Atlanta to help kick off the Department of Education's annual back-to-school bus tour.

      First Lady Michelle Obama hugs a student during a college fair at Booker T. Washington High School in Atlanta. Photo courtesy of the U.S. Department of Education by Joshua Hoover.

      First Lady Michelle Obama hugs a student during a college fair at Booker T. Washington High School in Atlanta. Photo courtesy of the U.S. Department of Education by Joshua Hoover.

      At the "prep" rally, the First Lady encouraged students to follow their dreams:

      So if there is anybody telling you that you're not college material -- anyone -- I want you to brush them off. Prove them wrong. I want you all to ask for help. Ask your teachers, your counselors, your coaches, your friends –- I don't care who it is.

      READ MORE


       

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      Seth's Blog : Law and order

       

      Law and order

      At some point, the world (the project, the moment) becomes so chaotic or dangerous that we sacrifice law in exchange for order.

      The question is: when.

      When is it time to declare martial law? (or your version of it)

      When do you abandon your project plan because the boss is hysterical? When do you go off the long-term, drip-by-drip approach to growth because cash flow is tight? When do you suspend one set of valued principles in order to preserve the thing you set out to build in the first place?

      When Richard Nixon was at his most megalomaniacal, he was willing to suspend any law in his way to preserve what he saw as order. Failed entrepreneurs and project leaders fall into the same trap: it feels as though this time, it truly is the end of the road, and throwing away principles is tempting indeed.

      You've probably met people who declare this sort of emergency ten times a year.

      History is filled with examples of people who pushed the order button too soon... but few instances where people stuck with their principles for too long.

             

       

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