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luni, 13 octombrie 2014

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Line or staff?

The most urgent jobs tend to be line jobs. Profit and loss. Schedules to be drawn and honored. Projects to deliver.

The line manager initiates. The line manager delivers.

Staff jobs are important, no doubt about it. The staff keeps the lights on, provides resources on demand and is standing by ready to help the line manager. But the staff person doesn't get to say yes and doesn't get to say go.

In fact, the best staff people get that way by acting like they're on the line.

When you can, take responsibility. Say go.

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duminică, 12 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

McCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria and an Ebola Czar; Secret Friends

Posted: 12 Oct 2014 08:32 PM PDT

I am seriously starting to wonder if Senator John McCain has lost his mind.

In 2009, the Senator complained "Obama has more czars than the Romanovs." Today, John McCain, Czar Hater, Calls For Ebola Czar.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) believes President Barack Obama should appoint a "czar" to lead America's response to Ebola.

"From spending time here in Arizona, my constituents are not comforted. There has to be more reassurance given to them. I would say that we don't know exactly who's in charge. There has to be some kind of czar," McCain said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."

Other Republicans have also seemingly changed their minds on the issue. Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), who once introduced the "Czar Accountability and Reform Act" to cut off funding for czars, said earlier this month that Obama needed to appoint such an official to help unify the government's response to Ebola.

Why Don't We Have an Ebola Czar?

The correct answer should be "We don't have an ebola czar because we do not need one. If created, the position would never go away once created, and we have too many czars already".

Instead, let's assume ebola control belongs in the hands of the surgeon general. With that assumption, we do not have an ebola czar because the NRA put the kibosh on Obama's Surgeon Gen. nominee, Regina Benjamin.

I am not here to debate the merits or lack thereof of Regina Benjamin. I do not know her medical qualifications. I will say that her 2012 tweet calling guns "a health care issue" seems quite reasonable. And for that tweet, her appointment has been blocked.

Ebola vs. Firearm Homicides

The Center for Disease Control reports there were 11,068 firearm homicides in 2011. In 2014 there has been 1 ebola death.

Regardless of one's position on handgun control, here's a simple question: what's the bigger health-care issue?

Yet, instead of a Surgeon General, McCain wants an ebola Czar, even though he whined Obama has too many czars.

If you were looking for proof McCain has lost his marbles, you now have it.

McCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria

Looking for more proof McCain has lost his marbles? If so, please consider McCain urges ground troops to defeat Isis: 'They're winning, and we're not'

Senator John McCain has warned that the Islamic State (Isis) is winning in Iraq and Syria, and that the United States needs to deploy ground troops if it is to stave off defeat.

Senator John McCain has warned that the Islamic State (Isis) is winning in Iraq and Syria, and that the United States needs to deploy ground troops if it is to stave off defeat.

The Arizona Republican urged a "fundamental re-evaluation" of US strategy on Sunday, as the extremist group, which is the target of US-led international air strikes, continued to advance into the Kurdish town of Kobani in Syria, near the border with Turkey, and towards the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

"They're winning, and we're not," McCain told CNN. "The Iraqis are not winning. The Peshmerga, the Kurds are not winning."

Secret Friends

Here's an interesting snip from the same article...

James Baker, a secretary of state under the first President Bush, told NBC he would not be surprised if Iran was secretly helping the US against Isis, a common foe. Henry Kissinger, another former secretary of state, told the same programme Iran was a potential US ally.

Rice, however, said Iran remained outside the US-led coalition against Isis. "We're not in coordination or direct consultation with the Iranians," she said.

Fundamental Reevaluation

I agree with McCain that the US needs a fundamental reevaluation of US foreign policy.

But instead of ground troops, this is what I propose ...

First, let's scrap the failed idea of "nation building".
Second, we need an assessment of who our friends and enemies really are.
Third, we should think three times before we send US troops in harm's way.
Fourth, if we do send US troops in harm's way we should have an honest discussion of how much it will cost, how we will pay for it, and why it's necessary.
Fifth, we should defend our borders, not every border in the world (typically based on whether the region has oil or not).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : We have Ebola

We have Ebola

It's tragic but not surprising to watch the marketing of another epidemic unfold.

It starts with, "We" don't have Ebola, "they" do. They live somewhere else, or look different or speak another language. Our kneejerk reaction is that "they" need to be isolated from us (more than 55% of Americans favor a travel ban for everyone, not just the sick). Even fifty years ago, a travel ban was difficult, now it's impossible. The world is porous, there are more connections than ever, and we've seen this before.

Tuberculosis. Polio. AIDS. Fear runs rampant, amplified by the media, a rising cycle of misinformation, demonization and panic. Fear of the other. Pushing us apart and paralyzing us.

The thing is:

We are they.

They are us.

Education—clear, fact-based and actionable education—is the single most effective thing we can do during the early stages of a contagion. Diseases (and ideas) spread because of the social structures we have created, and we can re-engineer those interactions to dramatically change the R0 of a virus. Ebola doesn't 'know' that large funerals are traditional, but it certainly takes advantage of them to spread. Ideas don't 'know' that bad news travels fast, and that the internet makes ideas travel faster, but they take advantage of this to spread.

Cable TV voices that induce panic to make their ratings go up are directly complicit in amplifying the very reactions that magnify the impact of the virus. Attention-seeking media voices take us down. All of us.

It's tempting to panic, or to turn away, or to lock up or isolate everyone who makes us nervous. But we can (and must) do better than that. Panic, like terror, is also a virus, one that spreads.

We have an urgent and tragic medical problem, no doubt, but we also have a marketing problem.

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sâmbătă, 11 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Snowden Film "Citizen Four" Reveals How He Did It; Second Leaker Involved; Files on 1.2 Million People; Snowden Vindicated

Posted: 11 Oct 2014 07:26 PM PDT

Once again I salute Edwards Snowden as an all-American hero. On second thought, make that an all-world hero.

A movie on how and why Snowden revealed NSA wiretaps is about to be released.

Showbiz reports Edward Snowden Doc Premieres: Shocking Inside Look at How He Did It.

Citizen Four is the shocking doc about Edward Snowden made by Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras. Just screened tonight was the two hour film which will be released by the Weinstein Company this month. It doesn't paint the Obama administration in a very good light as Snowden explains how the government has violated privacy rights on a massive scale.

Also the filmmakers clearly indicate that all roads lead to POTUS, a fairly serious accusation. There may be serious repercussions.

Then there's the Hollywoodization of Snowden. The detail of how and why Snowden went about this is pretty surprising considering how the 29 year old former NSA employee says he wants his own privacy and not to be a celebrity. It's instructive to see his evolution from eyeglass wearing nerd to contact lenses and moussed up hair sporting hero of his own thriller. It's all very Tom Cruise. Even the beautiful girlfriend sets up housekeeping with him in Moscow. Nevertheless as the details of the NSA's programs are revealed Snowden says, "This isn't science fiction. It's really happening."

Snowden Vindicated

Let's turn to where it all started: The Guardian. Snowden made his revelations to Guardian reporter Glen Greenwald.

Please consider The Guardian article Citizenfour Review – Poitras' Victorious Film Shows Snowden Vindicated.

Citizenfour must have been a maddening documentary to film. Its subject is pervasive global surveillance, an enveloping digital act that spreads without visibility, so its scenes unfold in courtrooms, hearing chambers and hotels. Yet the virtuosity of Laura Poitras, its director and architect, makes its 114 minutes crackle with the nervous energy of revelation.

At its heart, Citizenfour is the story of how Snowden's disclosures unfolded through Poitras' eyes, from the first communications Snowden sends Poitras, hinting at what is to come, until Snowden sees himself vindicated through emulation. (The film is named for a pseudonym Snowden used with Poitras.) The time before Poitras meets Snowden is symbolized by a car travelling through a pitch-black tunnel, barely illuminated by the glowing red lights on the ceiling, until sunlight bursts in when she and her colleagues Glenn Greenwald and the Guardian's Ewen MacAskill arrive in Hong Kong for their fateful encounter.

Accessibly explaining how surveillance works, and why it matters, only gets more challenging the deeper you dig into the NSA trove. At the Guardian, it consumed exhausting months' worth of background reporting, verification and endless revisions.

Since June 2013, Snowden has been a cipher to the world, often yielding paranoid reactions (Russian spy! Chinese dupe!) from people understandably curious about his motives. It may be too late to change people's minds about Snowden, at least so soon after his leaks. But the Snowden who Poitras shows – hair tousled, resisting his attempts at styling it – is determined, sincere and human.

While often portrayed as arrogant, especially by self-interested surveillance bureaucrats, Snowden tells Poitras, Greenwald and MacAskill that he wants journalists and not himself to decide what ought to be public. He is possessed with an uncanny calm as he is about to become forever targeted. Yet Snowden's eyes redden and his shoulders stoop when he grasps the burden he is placing on his family and girlfriend – with whom he is now reunited in Russia, a place in which he never intended to live.

Given the passions that the NSA disclosures have generated, it's remarkable how tempered Citizenfour comes across. Reflecting a style Poitras seems to share with Snowden, it's a quiet movie, its soundtrack a sinister digital throb, packed tight with questions about how we live freely in an unseen dragnet. One of its only boisterous moments comes when Snowden and Greenwald discuss the spirit animating both the reporting and Snowden's decision to reveal himself. Greenwald describes it as "the fearlessness and the f*ck-you".

That fearlessness attracted Snowden to Poitras, and it shows through her camera.

Citizenfour opens in US cinemas on 24 October.

Second Leaker Involved

Please note Second leaker in US intelligence, says Glenn Greenwald

The investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald has found a second leaker inside the US intelligence agencies, according to a new documentary about Edward Snowden that premiered in New York on Friday night.

Towards the end of filmmaker Laura Poitras's portrait of Snowden – titled Citizenfour, the label he used when he first contacted her – Greenwald is seen telling Snowden about a second source.

Snowden, at a meeting with Greenwald in Moscow, expresses surprise at the level of information apparently coming from this new source. Greenwald, fearing he will be overheard, writes the details on scraps of paper.

The specific information relates to the number of the people on the US government's watchlist of people under surveillance as a potential threat or as a suspect. The figure is an astonishing 1.2 million.

Edward Snowden's Girlfriend Living with Him in Moscow

The Guardian reports Edward Snowden's Girlfriend Living with Him in Moscow.

Lindsay Mills, thought to have been deserted by Snowden before NSA revelations, appears beside whistleblower in Citizenfour.

The mystery of the whereabouts of Edward Snowden's long-time girlfriend is solved in a documentary that premiered in New York on Friday night: she has been living with the national security whistleblower in Russia since July.

The surprise revelation in the documentary, filmed by Laura Poitras, upends the widespread assumption that Snowden had deserted Lindsay Mills and that she, in a fit of pique, fled Hawaii where they had been living to stay with her parents in mainland US.

Since Snowden, a former NSA contractor, outed himself last year as being behind the biggest leak in US intelligence history, Mills has remained silent, giving no interviews or any hints of her feelings on the subject of her boyfriend or his actions.

The two-hour long documentary, Citizenfour, shows Mills living in Russia with Snowden.

Greenwald and Snowden are Heroes

The NSA has 1.2 million files on "suspects". Are any of them on president Obama for flagrant violations of the US constitution? If not, I suggest the NSA is targeting the wrong people.

I am proud to have been on the right side of this debate from day one.

I repeat my assertion Greenwald and Snowden are Heroes. Greenwald is well deserving of the Pulitzer Prize he won for breaking this story.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Do the word

Do the word

It's possible to bend language to your will, to invest extraordinary amounts of effort and care to make words do what you want them to do.

Our culture celebrates athletes that shape their bodies, and chieftains who build organizations. Lesser known, but more available, is the ability to work on our words until they succeed in transmitting our ideas and causing action.

Here's the thing: you may not have the resources or the physique or the connections that people who do other sorts of work have. But you do have precisely the same keyboard as everyone else. It's the most level playing field we've got.

The first step is to say it poorly. And then say it again and again and again until you're able to edit your words into something that works.

But mostly, you need to decide that it matters.[HT: Shawn]

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vineri, 10 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Indianapolis Airport Unveils Roaming Customer Service Robot on Wheels; Next Big Thing in Airport Customer Relations

Posted: 10 Oct 2014 03:09 PM PDT

The ongoing effort to replace human workers with robots took an interesting turn today as Indianapolis Airport Unveils Roaming Customer Service Robot on Wheels.

A new customer service robot is now roaming around the passenger terminal of Indianapolis International Airport.

The robot was rolled out Thursday, with a staffer guiding it remotely around the baggage claim area greeting travelers and looking for anyone who needed assistance. The robot looks like a miniature Segway, but with a blue customer service shirt and an interactive iPod on top showing the employee piloting it.

Next Big Thing in Airport Customer Relations

USA Today has a video of the Friendly Indianapolis Airport Robot answering questions.

Don't worry, the robot is not out to take your customer service job. Airport official say the robot will be compliment, not replace, human workers.

They forgot to add ... until we get the kinks worked out.

Of course, the higher the minimum wage, the faster they will get the kinks out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Defense Dept. to Request $30-40 Billion a Year to Fight ISIS; History Lessons

Posted: 10 Oct 2014 11:22 AM PDT

Anyone recall how the war in Iraq would pay for itself? That was the US Defense Department estimate in 2003.

Now some $3 trillion later (add in veterans' benefits, depreciation of equipment, humanitarian aid, covert action, and paying for the military efforts of our coalition 'partners' and the Total Cost of Iraq, Afghan Wars is $4-6 Trillion.

Come Hell or High Water

That $4 to $6 trillion Iraq, Afghan cost projection was made in 2013. That estimate assumed the costs would be winding down now. They won't.

On September 30, 2014 Vice President Joe Biden's pledge to get out of Afghanistan "come hell or high water by 2014" came to an abrupt halt when President Obama agreed to a deal to leave US troops in the country until 2024 "at least".

For details and an assessment of that announcement, please see "Come Hell or High Water" Promise Morphs Into "Infinity and Beyond".

How Much Will Fighting ISIS Cost?

Boston Globe writer Linda J. Bilmes asks Fighting the Islamic State — how much will it cost?.

President Obama and his military top brass have pronounced that the effort to defeat the Islamic State will be "long" — translation: expensive. The Pentagon has admitted to spending over $1 billion so far, with the current pace running at some $10 million per day. Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believes the annual bill for military operations will range from $4 billion to $22 billion, depending on duration, scope, and the extent to which ground forces get involved — which is becoming increasingly likely. Obama has ruled out sending troops, but it is clear the Pentagon has not given up on boots on the ground — they just may not be worn entirely by Americans.

Twelve months ago, the wartime culture of "endless money," as former Defense Secretary Robert Gates dubbed it, with its endless "emergency" funding from Congress (nearly $2 trillion in more than 30 special funding bills) — was finally coming to an end. The Beltway was filled with talk of belt-tightening at the Department of Defense, including a 10-year $497-billion cut imposed by the so-called sequester. The Pentagon was proposing to shrink the size of the armed forces, trim military compensation and benefits, and mothball expensive weapons and military installations left over from the Cold War.

But now that's all so-last-fiscal-year. The new trend is ramping up Pentagon spending. At their press conference last week, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared that they don't have enough funding to conduct the operation against the Islamic State.

In addition, Congress is refusing to let the Pentagon make even modest changes to its current base benefit plan. This will surely encourage the department to ask for another blank check to pay for new operations. Requests are already mounting.

The combined cost of abandoning planned cutbacks at the Defense Department, new spending to combat the Islamic State, and extra foreign military assistance means that America will wind up spending up to $100 billion more on military activities than we had expected this year alone.

Washington assumes that we will simply borrow whatever is needed — and continue to pass the cost of today's wars onto future generations. This feckless approach has already led to much higher national debt, as well as rampant waste and corruption in our military appropriations.

Financing the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts with debt has hidden the true costs from public view. President Obama has just asked Americans to embark on another decade-long military engagement. He needs to propose a strategy for how it should be paid for, and what sacrifices will be required.

$100 Billion More Than Expected Already This Year Alone

Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believes the bill will "range from $4 billion to $22 billion" annually, even though we are going to spend $100 billion more this year on defense than expected.

How's that work? I'll tell you how: Money is pooled into an "Overseas Contingency Operation" slush fund and spent as the department wants. Moreover, veterans' benefits, medical treatment and numerous other war costs don't show up in any war-related buckets.

New U.S. Price Tag for the War Against ISIS: $40 Billion a Year

In a 100% guaranteed to be underestimated cost analysis, the Fiscal Times reports New U.S. Price Tag for the War Against ISIS: $40 Billion a Year.

With the war against ISIS off to a rocky start, there are signs that the Obama administration is getting ready to up the ante substantially on weaponry, manpower and aid to allies – at a cost of an additional $3o billion to $40 billion a year.

Earlier, Gordon Adams, a military analyst at American University, told The Fiscal Times that the mission to stop ISIS will cost $15 billion to $20 billion annually, based on his "back of the envelope" calculations. Other analysts have made similar forecasts. But based on soundings of the defense establishment, Adams said Thursday that the Defense Department would almost certainly request funding of twice that level later this year.

"I have consummate faith that they can get to $30 billion to $40 billion a year without breaking a sweat," he added.

The estimated $30 billion to $40 billion of new spending would come on top of the Pentagon's $496 billion fiscal 2015 operating budget for personnel and contractors and the roughly $58.6 billion in an "Overseas Contingency Operation" fund that is used to finance U.S. war operations in the Middle East.

The OCO, as it is known, has paid for the protracted U.S. military engagement in the Middle East with borrowing that adds to the long-term U.S. debt. If Adams' projections are correct, then the OCO would total as much as $80 billion to $90 billion in the coming year.

However, House Speaker John Boehner and other congressional Republican leaders are skeptical that Obama's strategy can work without substantially more resources – including more ground troops.

Iraq War: Predictions Made, and Results

Let's take a look at previous predictions, when they were made, and how accurate they were, starting with a Christian Science Monitor report Iraq War: Predictions Made, and Results.

Ahead of and shortly after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, a number of officials, including former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz suggested the war could be done on the cheap and that it would largely pay for itself. In October 2003, Rumsfeld told a press conference about President Bush's request for $21 billion for Iraq and Afghan reconstruction that "the $20 billion the president requested is not intended to cover all of Iraq's needs. The bulk of the funds for Iraq's reconstruction will come from Iraqis -- from oil revenues, recovered assets, international trade, direct foreign investment, as well as some contributions we've already received and hope to receive from the international community."

In March 2003, Mr. Wolfowitz told Congress that "we're really dealing with a country that could finance its own reconstruction." In April 2003, the Pentagon said the war would cost about $2 billion a month, and in July of that year Rumsfeld increased that estimate to $4 billion.

I believe we all know how that turned out.

Lost Cause

On July 24, 2010 I wrote Afghanistan is a "Lost Cause"; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War

The questions on my mind are: How many trillions of dollars do we have to spend, how many lives need to be wasted, and how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?

The total amount of the waste and lives lost is unknown, but we now have an answer to my 2010 question: "how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?".

The unfortunate answer is "until 2024 at least".

How much will fighting ISIS it really cost? No one can answer that now, but a safe starting point for discussion is somewhere between 10 and 100 times initial projections.

Time for Self Assessment

In Iraq Splinters Into Pieces, Al Qaeda in Control of Several Cities, Kurds Take Oil City Kirkuk; Thank George Bush and the Neocons; Iraq Before and After I held the Bush Administration largely responsible for this mess.

Sure, president Obama made many mistakes but the initial, most damning mistake was the Iraq invasion and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

In a follow-up post, Assessing the Blame for Iraq: Bush, Obama, McCain, Others; Iraq Sunken Costs I asked for self-assessment.

Time for Self Assessment

I can and do blame Obama for countless things. But Republicans would be very wise to self-assess on Iraq, on nation building, and on warmongering in general.

Instead of self-assessment, warmongers want more war.

Deficit-Hawk Hypocrites

As is always the case, John McCain leads the war rally cry in the Senate. In the House, Speaker John Boehner Says U.S. may have 'no choice' on combat troops.

Not once have these Republican deficit-hawk hypocrites said how they propose to pay for this. Not once has McCain ever placed the blame for ISIS where it belongs.

ISIS a U.S. Creation

ISIS is 100% a US creation. ISIS arose following inane US nation-building policies starting with the absurd belief the "Iraq war would pay for itself.

This self-made mess produced Strange Bedfellows: To Fight ISIS, US Now Supports Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Other Terror Groups.

I concluded "Strange Bedfellows" with a warning "Just remember ... To make matters worse, you have to begin somewhere."

History Lesson

I conclude this post with another history lesson: "No mess is ever so big that it cannot be made worse by throwing more money at it."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 13 octombrie 2014

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Seth's Blog : Line or staff?

Line or staff?

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duminică, 12 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : We have Ebola

We have Ebola

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sâmbătă, 11 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Do the word

Do the word

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vineri, 10 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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