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sâmbătă, 29 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sanctions on Russia Bite Europe, China the Beneficiary

Posted: 29 Nov 2014 02:57 PM PST

European sanctions on Russia have hurt the EU far more than Russia. Moreover, Europe has lost key machinery contracts to China, and those contracts will likely stay with China even after sanctions are lifted.

Please consider Europe Feels Sting in the Tail of Russia Sanctions.

At a technology fair in Moscow last month, European executives faced the new reality of doing business in Russia since the West imposed sanctions: the number of companies at the international showcase had shrunk by half from a year ago.

"The impact on business couldn't be clearer. Fewer stands, fewer companies," said Mark Bultinck, a sales executive for Belgian digital screen maker Barco, which had a booth at the annual expo for the audiovisual industry.

The impact of the sanctions was already clear to Barco.

The company lost Russia's biggest shipbuilder as a client when the United States and the European Union blacklisted United Shipbuilding Corporation in July, meaning Barco could no longer sell screens to the company for its vessel training simulators.

Barco's experience shows how sanctions are having a broad impact not just on Russian companies but on European ones too and at a time when Europe's weak economy can ill afford it.

companies are at risk of losing contracts to competitors from China and elsewhere, according to Frank Schauff, chief executive office at the Association of European Businesses in Russia.

"Countries that have not imposed sanctions are able to jump in where the EU has left a gap," said Schauff. "The economic position that the European Union has in Russia is at risk and it is very difficult to gain that back if it is lost."

Lost Business

EU exports to Russia fell 19 percent to 7.9 billion euros ($9.91 billion) compared to July.
EU exports down 18 percent compared to August 2013.
Total EU exports fell 12 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to a year ago.
EU exports of machinery and transport equipment such as cars and tractors fell 23 percent compared to July.
Machinery and transport exports fell 21 percent from a year ago.
Manufactured exports fell 16 percent across the 28-nation bloc in August.
Italy's manufactured exports tumbled by almost half.

None of this should be surprising. It's exactly what one could have and should have expected at the outset. The only beneficiary of the inane sanctions has been China.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy's Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Hits Record High 13.2%

Posted: 29 Nov 2014 08:21 AM PST

The string of unexpectedly bad news in the eurozone continues unabated as Italian Unemployment Rate Rises to Record, Above Forecasts.

The unemployment rate rose to 13.2 percent from a revised 12.9 percent the previous month, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. That's the highest since the quarterly series began in 1977. The median estimate of seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an unemployment rate of 12.6 percent in October.

The youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 rose to 43.3 percent last month from 42.7 percent in September, today's report showed.

Expectations vs. Reality

Economists expected a drop in unemployment of 0.3%. Instead unemployment rose 0.3%.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi blamed the rise on an increase in the participation rate, with more people looking for a job.

Similar to the setup in the US, those who want a job but do not look for one are not considered unemployed. Instead, they are considered "discouraged workers".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Stumbling your way to greatness

Stumbling your way to greatness

One reason people who spend a lot of time thinking about and working on a problem or a craft seem to find breakthroughs more often than everyone else is that they've failed more often than everyone else.

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vineri, 28 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Conflicting Shopping Headlines: NY Times "Brisk Sales", Yahoo "Black Friday Shopping Crowds Thin"

Posted: 28 Nov 2014 10:43 AM PST

Here's a pair of conflicting stories regarding Black Friday shopping.

Crowds Thin

Yahoo!Finance reports Black Friday Shopping Crowds Thin After Thanksgiving Rush.

Mall crowds were relatively thin early on Black Friday in a sign of what has become the new normal in U.S. holiday shopping: the mad rush is happening the night of Thanksgiving and more consumers are picking up deals online.

"It just looks like any other weekend," said Angela Olivera, a 32-year old housewife shopping for children's clothing at the Westfarms Mall near Hartford, Connecticut. "The kind of crowds we usually see are missing and this is one of the biggest malls here. I think people are just not spending a lot."

Brisk Sales

The New York Times reports Black Friday Sales Are Brisk, Retailers Say, Bolstered by Online Deals.

Parking lots at some shopping malls filled up around the country on Friday, as shoppers kept up the tradition of scouring stores for holiday deals even though some retailers had been open on Thanksgiving and even overnight.

Big retailers, many of whom kicked off sales Thursday evening, reported brisk traffic overnight. Walmart said that 22 million shoppers streamed through stores across the country on Thanksgiving Day, more than the number of people who visit Disney's Magic Kingdom in an entire year, the retail giant pointed out.

Still, as retailers jump-start their deals earlier and more sales move online, Black Friday itself is starting to fade in importance.

Target said its best-selling goods in store were the Element 40" TV, the Xbox One, iPads and Nikon's L330 camera. In the first hour of stores opening, Target sold 1,800 TVs per minute and 2,000 video games per minute, the retailer said in a release. Keurig's K40 brewer and Dyson's DC50 vacuum were other top sellers, Target said.

Economists are closely watching whether retailers can entice shoppers to spend during what retailers consider the biggest shopping weekend of the year, especially after a year of lackluster sales so far. A brightening economic outlook, and ever-cheaper gas prices, are starting to lift consumer confidence. But there are also signs of lingering wariness among consumers, after what has been an uneven economic recovery marked by anemic wage growth, especially for low-income households.

And online, which makes up a bigger share of holiday sales each year, retailers have been offering Black Friday deals for many days now, stretching what was once a one-day shopping frenzy into a week or more of sales.

Online retailers have also driven the heavier-than-ever discounting this year. Amazon has priced out many of the country's biggest retailers in the big-ticket holiday items, offering a Samsung 55-inch 4K flat-screen television for $899. Dealnews.com, which closely tracks Black Friday deals, declared Amazon's deal "without a doubt" the cheapest name-brand 4K television it had ever seen.

IBM Digital Analytics, which tracks online shopping transactions in the United States, said sales rose 12 percent between midnight and 6 p.m. Eastern time Thanksgiving Day.

Is traffic up or down? Perhaps it varies by region. Two safe bets: Online shopping is up, and Black Friday is losing importance as shopping is spread out over more days.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Japan Household Spending Down 4%, CPI Drops to 0.9%; Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Posted: 28 Nov 2014 09:09 AM PST

In spite of the Yen falling 35% since 2011, Japan once again borders on deflation. Please consider Japan's CPI falls to 0.9%.

Japanese core inflation last month fell below 1 per cent to a 13 month low, just weeks before prime minister Shinzo Abe heads to the polls to garner fresh support to push back a scheduled rise in sales tax.

Core consumer prices, all prices excluding fresh food, slowed to an annual pace of 2.9 per cent growth year-on-year in October, in line with forecasts. Stripped of any impact of the sales tax rise in April, core prices are up 0.9 per cent.

Highlighting the scale of the challenges facing the Abe administration, data released on Friday also showed households further tightening their purse-strings.

Household spending fell 4 per cent year-on-year, the seventh consecutive decline since the national sales tax was raised from 5 to 8 per cent in April. Retail sales dropped 1.4 per cent, reversing two months of gains.

The drop in core inflation comes not even 10 days after Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, warned that a fall below 1 per cent was "possible", in a reversal of comments made just four months ago.

Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Here's an interesting note regarding bankruptcies that I picked up from ZeroHedge: As Japanese Bankruptcies Soar, Goldman Warns "Further Yen Depreciation Could Be A Net Burden"

According to a recent bankruptcy survey by Tokyo Shoko Research, there were 214 bankruptcies due to the weak yen in January-September 2014, which is 2.4 times the 89 seen in January-September 2013. Far more of the bankruptcies were in the nonmanufacturing sector—81 in transport, 41 in wholesale trade, 19 in services, and 11 in retail—than in the manufacturing sector (44), which is consistent with our analysis based on the input/output tables.

Surprisingly, the number of bankruptcies since 2013 due to yen depreciation far surpasses the number of bankruptcies in 2009-2011 due to yen appreciation.

Bankruptcies Caused by Falling Yen

The Japanese consumer is faced with a falling yen, much higher taxes, and counting taxes prices much higher. The only saving grace for Japan has been falling energy prices.

Yet, prime minister Shinzo Abe Wants inflation and more of it. It's madness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

WHITE EXCHANGE 2014 WELCOMES DELEGATES TO THE ASHMOLEAN MUSEUM OXFORD

Posted: 27 Nov 2014 08:22 AM PST

On Monday 24th November, White welcomed over 100 delegates with exclusive access to the prestigious Ashmolean Museum for its annual White Exchange conference.

'Turning Data into Strategy' was the focus of the day and attracted representatives from both client and agency side from a wealth of London and Oxfordshire-based businesses.

The day kicked off with Jon Myers, VP and MD EMEA of Marin Software, outlining 5 key trends on the use of data in online advertising.

"Are you advertising on RSLA with Google? If not then go and take a look, it targets your demographic"- Jon Myers.

This was followed by one of White's own PPC Consultant, Jason Denny, with a very engaging presentation on 'Identifying data to fuel your PPC Strategy', in which he explained why Keyword Eye, SEMrush and Keyword Planner are his tools of choice.

Head of Insight at Linkdex, Jonathan Alderson, captivated the audience with his talk on 'Digital Marketing by Numbers'. Alderson says, 'pull all your key stakeholders into one room and articulate what good likes like, then translate to a measurable goal'.

Director of Services at White, Daniel Bianchini, then shared his 4 steps to building a data-driven strategy, highlighting that marketers do not always utilise data to drive decisions.

"All goals must lead back to your overall business objective" – Daniel Bianchini

In the surroundings of marble sculptures and historical artefacts, lunch was served and delegates networked and had the opportunity to converse with the speakers of the morning.

Keynote speaker and CEO of Democrata, Geoffrey Roberts, took the audience on a journey of his career path, starting in the music industry to Nokia working on some leading edge projects. His talk, 'How music, data and technology help us get closer to the consumer', received a lot of positive feedback from delegates.

The day was rounded off with an invitation to all the speakers to take part in a panel discussion about the future of data. Big Data Advisor for CPM, John Morton, accompanied the speakers on the panel as a specialist in delivering complex insight to decision makers in solutions such as loyalty, rogue trading, and grey market assessment.

The panel was interactive and engaging, with several questions deriving from the delegates in the room.

"The range and quality of the presentations was excellent. A very effective way of gaining a lot of insight in such an inspiring location"- Chris Jones, White Exchange 2014 delegate.

Drinks were then served in the Money Gallery, which hosts one of Britain's largest collections of money, coins and medals. A sense of excitement for discovery and fascination amongst the delegates was evoked being surrounded by these historical pieces.

With the museum being closed to the public for the event, delegates of White Exchange had the opportunity to browse and admire all that the Ashmolean has to offer.

"A museum may seem staid and stuffy, however a White light was shone on how marketing practitioners can drive deeper customer engagements, inhibit competitors and grow their business at the White Exchange 'Turning Data into Strategy' event. The speakers were insightful, the audience engaged, with many pragmatic topics raised in the Q&A sessions. Look forward to the next White event!" – John Morton

The success of this White Exchange firmly establishes White as an successful and expanding agency. With growing interest and attendance to the annual conference, the next White Exchange looks to be even bigger and better. For information about the next White Exchange, get in touch with one of the team at White.

"I was so pleased to see so much interest in the event this year. We worked really hard to bring speakers from a variety of industries and professional backgrounds to give a wealth of information on the topic for this year's event. I'd like to thank the speakers for agreeing to take part in this event. I'd also like to thank the staff from the Ashmolean, who not only proved an amazing venue but were very helpful in enabling us to put the event on. Finally, I'd like to thank the team at White who worked tirelessly to make the event happen."
Stuart Tofts, Founder and MD, White.

Below you can find all the presentations of the speakers from White Exchange 2014.

Jon Myers

Jason Denny

Jonathan Alderson

Daniel Bianchini

Geoffrey Roebrts

The post WHITE EXCHANGE 2014 WELCOMES DELEGATES TO THE ASHMOLEAN MUSEUM OXFORD appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : The fear of freedom

The fear of freedom

What will you do next?

What can you learn tomorrow?

Where will you live, who will you connect with, who will you trust?

Are questions better than answers? Maybe it's easier to get a dummies book, a tweet or a checklist than it is to think hard about what's next...

It's certainly easier to go shopping. And easier still to buy what everyone else is buying.

We live in an extraordinary moment, with countless degrees of freedom. The instant and effortless connection to a billion people changes everything, but instead, we're paralyzed with fear, a fear so widespread that you might not even notice it.

We have more choices, more options and more resources than any generation, ever.

[Reminder: Black Friday is a media trap, an orchestrated mass hallucination based on herd dynamics and the media cycle.]

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joi, 27 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Crude Plunges Following OPEC Decision to Not Cut Production

Posted: 27 Nov 2014 07:09 PM PST

For five consecutive months OPEC produced over its alleged quota. Nonetheless, and in spite of falling prices and pleas from Venezuela to restrict production, OPEC decided to take no action.

In the wake of the news, West Texas Intermediate plunged nearly 7% and Brent fell over 8%.

WTI Crude Futures

Brent Crude Futures

Please consider OPEC Fails to Take Action to Ease Glut as Crude Plunges.

OPEC took no action to ease a global oil-supply glut, resisting calls from Venezuela that the group needs to stem the rout in prices. Futures slumped the most in more than three years.

The group maintained its collective production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said yesterday after the 12 nations met in Vienna. Brent crude dropped as much as 8.4 percent in London, extending this year's decline to 34 percent.

Canada's producers big and small will have to tighten their belts to prepare for declining profits.

"This is a pretty big shock," said Justin Bouchard, an analyst at Desjardins Securities Inc. in Calgary. "There's no question there's going to be a slowdown. Even the big guys will have to look at their capital spending plans."

Western Canada Select, the Canadian benchmark, has lost more than a third of its value since June, in step with declines for West Texas Intermediate and the international gauge Brent. WCS traded yesterday at $55.94 a barrel, the lowest in the world.

Venezuela Burns Through Currency Reserves

Bloomberg reports Venezuela Burns Through Third of New Chinese Money in a Week

Venezuela's international reserves declined $1.3 billion in the week after President Nicolas Maduro transfered $4 billion of Chinese loans to the central bank.

The country's reserves dropped to $22.2 billion today, according to central bank data. A collapse in global oil prices pushed Venezuela's foreign currency holdings to an 11-year low earlier this month.

Maduro on Nov. 18 ordered the Chinese loan proceeds to be moved from an off-budget fund, so that they would show up in reserves and help boost investor confidence in an economy beset by the world's highest inflation and widest budget deficit. The following day, Venezuelan bonds rose the most in six years in intraday trading.

"If the plan was to calm the bondholders, then burning through a third of that money in five working days doesn't do it in any way," Henkel Garcia, director of Caracas-based consultancy Econometrica, said in a telephone interview.

Hyperinflation in Venezuela

Foreign reserves are the only reason why Venezuela's currency (the Bolívar) is not completely worthless. Nonetheless, inflation already exceeds 60% annually.

In September, Venezuela's Bolívar Hit Record Low on Black Market.

The plummeting Venezuelan currency breached a new, symbolic low of 100 bolívares per dollar on the black market Friday, according to market-tracking websites, in a sign of the worsening greenback shortage faced by President Nicolás Maduro's government.

Economists say the bolívar is collapsing as Venezuelans clamor for dollars to protect themselves from an inflation rate topping 60%. But the government, which tightly restricts access to dollars, has cut the supply this year, prompting the value of the bolívar to plunge in unofficial street transactions.

The lack of dollars—evidenced by mounting debts with private companies such as airlines and importers that service the country—has sparked fears of a potential default, since the country has more than $6 billion in bond payments due over the next three months.

I suspect it will not be long before Venezuela is forced to halt bond payments. Should that happen, the Bolívar would likely collapse to zero in short order.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Neutrality" Gone Mad: Should GM Have to Promote Toyota?

Posted: 27 Nov 2014 09:50 AM PST

The EU's attempt to breakup Google gets more absurd by the day. I wrote about this just yesterday in Google vs. Sun vs. France: Too Big, Too Powerful, Too Free.

I have a few more EU proposals regarding Google worth discussing, but first I have a few questions:

In the name of neutrality...

Should GM have to promote Toyota?
Should Target have to promote WalMart?
Should Pepsi have to promote Coke?

The idea sounds blatantly absurd, because it is.

Yet EU nannycrats Demand Neutrality From Google.

Google was under fire on two fronts in Europe on Wednesday as privacy watchdogs told it to apply the "right to be forgotten" globally and German ministers pushed for laws to make its search engine a "neutral platform".

The developments crown a difficult week for the US technology group, which has already seen Capitol Hill hit out at a European parliament resolution advocating Google's possible break-up. The non-binding motion is expected to be passed on Thursday

The 11-page paper, whose lead signatory is the German economics minister Sigmar Gabriel, argues it may be necessary to introduce "platform neutrality" to tackle abuses of dominance, either through tough antitrust enforcement or new legislation.

There is mounting unease in Washington that Google is being targeted for political reasons, in part to protect Germany's corporate champions in media and telecoms. A host of senior politicians – including the chairs of two House and one Senate committee – spoke out on Tuesday against the European parliament resolution and warned of negative consequences for trade and investment.

The broad-ranging German position paper – dated November 13 and co-signed by interior minister Thomas de Maizière, justice minister Heiko Maas and the minister for digital infrastructure, Alexander Dobrindt – underlines the extent to which Germany is driving Europe's efforts to constrain Google's power.

The German ministers urge Brussels to use the lure of Europe's domestic market and its political power to "stand up to global actors". The ministers write that a joint Franco-German working group has developed proposals aimed at regulating digital platforms that dominate the market.

These measures include a requirement to display commercial offers from competitors without charge, and a guarantee of access to content without discrimination.

Rotation Mechanism

Also consider this nonsensical Google Breakup Proposal from Spanish and German MPs.

German MEP Andreas Schwab and Spanish MEP Ramon Tremosa called for "a rotation mechanism, which displays Google's commercial services and their competitors in the same location and with the same prominence on the search results page. This move, its proponents say, would be close to the choice of browsers offered to consumers following the Microsoft investigation."

This is the kind of nonsense we expect from France and Spain. But Germany?

Why Stop There?

Why stop with internet services?

In the name of "neutrality", why shouldn't Mercedes be forced to offer free advertising to Fiat and GM. On a "rotation mechanism", why shouldn't Tiger Woods have to change his hat from Nike to Callaway?

By the way, I have already been impacted by such nonsense. I wrote about it in 2012, in Country Specific Blog Censorship by Google; Twitter Employs Censorship as Well; Echo Comments Not Working on Redirects

I do not have just one blog. I have many mirror copies. In the US my blog is globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com. In New Zealand it's http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.nz. Occasionally I get asked why comments do not always display in other countries. It has to do with weird suffixes. Readers in other countries can try surfing my original blog URL by appending /ncr (No Country Redirect) as follows: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ncr

That Google has to do this is of course silly, but it has to do with country specific censorship. Hmm... are all my criticisms of France filtered out?

Neutrality Solution

The EU nannycrats have gone mad and I have just the solution.

The EU is too big, too powerful, and too unwieldy. Instead of breaking up Google, let's unbundle the EU.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : The problem with problems

The problem with problems

We have limits. There are challenges, limited resources, people or organizations working against you. Your knee hurts, the boss is a jerk, the systems are down.

We have opportunities. There are opportunities, new sources of leverage and ideas just waiting to be embraced. You can share something, give something, make something better.

There are always limits, and there are always opportunities. The ones we rehearse and focus on are the ones that shape our attitude and our actions. How many times a day do you think about or announce the limits you face, the people who cannot be trusted, the problems that are weighing you down?

The problem with problems is that they always keep us from focusing on opportunities, on a chance to contribute and to make something better. Focus on our opportunities doesn't mean the problems don't exist, it merely means that we are far more likely to do something that matters.

Gratitude and opportunity create more of the same.

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sâmbătă, 29 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Stumbling your way to greatness

Stumbling your way to greatness

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vineri, 28 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

WHITE EXCHANGE 2014 WELCOMES DELEGATES TO THE ASHMOLEAN MUSEUM OXFORD

WHITE EXCHANGE 2014 WELCOMES DELEGATES TO THE ASHMOLEAN MUSEUM OXFORD

Seth's Blog : The fear of freedom

The fear of freedom

More Recent Articles

joi, 27 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : The problem with problems

The problem with problems

More Recent Articles

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