luni, 22 decembrie 2014

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Ukrainians Decorate Their Christmas Trees A Little Differently

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 12:03 PM PST

Some Ukrainians seem to mix a bit of Halloween when decorating their Christmas trees. They use spiders and webbing as ornaments.






















Things You Didn't Know About North Korea

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 11:12 AM PST



















Inventions That Need To Be Created Right Away

Posted: 22 Dec 2014 10:54 AM PST
















International SEO Study: How Searchers Perceive Country Code Top-Level Domains

International SEO Study: How Searchers Perceive Country Code Top-Level Domains


International SEO Study: How Searchers Perceive Country Code Top-Level Domains

Posted: 21 Dec 2014 04:15 PM PST

Posted by 5le

The decision to focus your site on an international audience is a big step and one fraught with complexities. There are, of course, issues to deal with around language and user experience, but in addition there are some big technical choices to make including what domains to use.

Any authoritative international SEO guide will elaborate on the differences between the options of subdirectory, subdomain, and country-code top level domain (CCTLD). One of the most common suggestions is for a site to opt to use a ccTLD (e.g. domain.co.uk) as the domain extension. The reasoning behind this is the theory that the ccTLD extension will "hint" to search engines and users exactly who your target audience should be versus the other, less explicit options. For example, a search engine and human user would know, even without clicking into a site, that a site that ends with .co.uk is targeting a user looking for UK content. 

We have solid data from Google that a ccTLD does indicate country targeting; however, when it comes to users there is only an assumption that users even notice and make choices based on the ccTLD. However, this is a fairly broad assumption that doesn't address whether a ccTLD is more important than a brand name in the domain or the quality of a website's content. To test this theory, we ran a survey to discover what users really thought.

User knowledge of TLDs

Even before trying to understand how users related to ccTLDs it is essential to validate the assumption that users even know that general TLDs exist. To establish this fact, we asked respondents to pick which TLD might be the one in use by a non-profit. Close to 100% of respondents correctly identified a TLD ending with .org as the one most likely to be used by a non-profit. Interestingly, only 4% of people in the US stated that they were unsure of the correct TLD compared to 13% of Australians. Predictably, nearly all marketers (98%) chose the .org answer.

.org cctld survey

Another popular TLD is the .edu in use by educational assumptions, and we wanted to understand if users thought that content coming from a .edu domain might be more trustworthy. We asked users if they received an unsolicited email about water quality in their town whether they would place more trust in a sender's email address that ended with .edu or .com. 89% of respondents in the US chose the .edu as more trustworthy, while only 79% said the same in Australia. Quite interestingly, the marketer responses (from the survey posted on Inbound.org were exactly the same as the Australians with 79% declaring the .edu to be more trustworthy.

.org cctld survey australia

If users can identify a .org as the correct TLD for a non-profit, and a .edu as a TLD that might be more trustworthy, it is likely that users are familiar with the existence of TLDs and how they might be used. The next question to answer is if users are aware of the connection between TLDs and locations.

Country relationship awareness

Next, we asked respondents to identify the location of a local business using a .ca TLD extension. The majority of respondents across all three surveys correctly chose Canada; and nearly all marketers (92%) got this correct. Oddly, more Australians (67%) correctly identified Canada than Americans (62%). We would have thought Americans should have been more familiar with the TLD of a neighboring country. Additionally, more Americans (23%) fell for the trick answer of California than Australians (15%). Regardless, we were able to conclude that most Internet users are aware of TLDs and that they are tied to a specific country.

canada cctld survey

To really gauge how much users know about TLDs and countries, we asked users to pick the right domain extension for a website in another country. In the US survey, we asked users to pick the correct TLD for an Australian company, and in the Australian survey we used a British company. In each of the questions we gave one correct answer possibility, one almost correct, and two entire wrong choices.For example, we gave .co.uk and .uk as answer choices to Australians.

In both the US and Australia, the majority of respondents chose the correct TLD, although Americans seem to have been confused by whether Australia's TLD was .AU (35%) or .com.AU (24%).

There is a common practice of using country-code domain extensions as a vanity URL for content that is not geotargeted. For example, .ly is the domain extension for Libya, but it is frequently used on domains that have a word that ends with "ly." Additionally, .me is the domain extension for Montenegro; however, the TLD is used for many purposes other than Montenegro content.

We wanted to understand if users noticed this type of TLD usage or if they thought the content might still be related to another country. We asked respondents what might be on a website that ended with .TV which is the TLD for the island nation of Tuvalu and is also a popular TLD for TV show websites. 51% of US respondents thought it might be a TV show and 42% chose the "it could be anything" answer. In Australia, 43% thought the site would be a TV show, and 44% said "it could be anything".

tuvalu cctld survey

One of the answer options was that it could be a website in Tuvalu and interestingly twice as many Australian (9%) chose this option vs US respondents (4.5%). This question was one of the areas where marketers' answers were very different from those in the US and Australia. 77% of marketers chose the TV show option and only 19% said it could be anything.

Based on the these three results, it is apparent that users recognize TLDs, know that they are from other countries, and appear to make some judgments around the content based on the TLD.

Decision making using TLDs

Since users know that TLDs are an important part of a URL that is tied to a country of origin, it is important to understand how the TLD factors into their decision-making processes about whether or not they visit certain websites.

We asked users whether they thought medical content on a foreign TLD would be as reliable as similar content found on their local TLD. In the US, only 24% thought the content on the non-local TLD (.co.uk) was less reliable than content on a .com. In Australia, the results were nearly identical to what we saw in the US with only 28% answering that the non-local TLD (.co.uk) was less reliable than the content on a .com.au. Even 24% of marketers answered that the content was less reliable. The remaining respondents chose either that the content equally reliable or they just didn't know. Based on these results, the TLD (at least as long as it was a reputable one) does not seem to impact user trust.

UK cctld survey

Digging into the idea of trust and TLD a bit further, we asked the same reliability question about results on Google.com vs Google.de. In the US, 56% of respondents said that the results on Google.de are equally reliable to those on Google.com, and in Australia, 51% said the same thing when compared to Google.com.au. In the marketer survey, 66% of respondents said the results were equally reliable. The fact that the majority of respondents stated that results are equally reliable should mean that users are more focused on the brand portion of a domain rather than its country extension.

CcTLD's impact on ecommerce

Making the decision to use a ccTLD on a website can be costly, so it is important to justify this cost with an actual revenue benefit. Therefore the real test of TLD choice is how it impacts revenue. This type of answer is of course hard to gauge in a survey where customers are not actually buying products, but we did want to try to see if there might be a way to measure purchasing decisions.

To achieve this result, we compared two different online retailers and asked respondents to choose the establishment that they thought would have the most reliable express shipping. In the US survey, we compared Amazon.co.jp to BestBuy.com. In the Australian survey, we compared Bigw.com.au (a well known online retailer) to Target.com. (Interesting fact: there is a Target in Australia that is not affiliated with Target in the US and their website is target.com.au) The intent of the question was to see if users zeroed in on the recognizable brand name or the domain extension.

cctld trust survey

In the US, while 39% said that both websites would offer reliable shipping, 42% still said that Best Buy would be the better option. Australians may have been confused by the incorrect Target website, since 61% said both websites would have reliable shipping, but 34% chose Big W. Even marketers didn't seem oblivious to domain names with only 34% choosing the equally reliable option, and 49% choosing Best Buy. The data in this question is a bit inconclusive, but we can definitively say that while a large portion of users are blind to domain names, however, when selling online it would be best to use a familiar domain extension.

cctld trust survey australia

New TLDs

Late last year, ICANN (the Internet governing body) announced that they would be releasing dozens of new GTLDs, which opened up a new domain name land grab harkening back to the early days of the Internet. Many of these domain names can be quite expensive, and we wanted to discover whether they even mattered to users.

gtld survey

We asked users if, based solely on the domain name, they were more likely to trust an insurance quote from a website ending in .insurance. 62% of Americans, 53% of Australians, and 67% of marketers said they were unlikely to trust the quote based on the domain alone. Based on this result, if you're looking to invest in a new TLD simply to drive more conversions, you should probably do more research first. 

A new gTLD is probably not a silver bullet.

Methodology

For this survey, I collaborated with Sam Mallikarjunan at HubSpot and we decided that the two assumptions we absolutely needed to validate where 1) whether users even notice ccTLDs and 2) if so do they really prefer the TLD of their country. While we received 101 responses from a version of the survey targeted at marketers on an Inbound.org discussion, we primarily used SurveyMonkey Audience, which allowed us to get answers from a statistically significant random selection of people in both the United States and Australia.

We created two nearly identical surveys with one targeted to a US-only audience and the other targeted to an Australian-only audience. A proper sample set is essential when conducting any survey that attempts to draw conclusions about people's general behavior and preferences. And in this case, the minimum number of respondents we needed in order to capture a representative example was 350 for the U.S. and 300 for Australia.

Additionally, in order for a sample to be valid, the respondents have to be chosen completely at random. SurveyMonkey Audience recruits its 4-million+ members from SurveyMonkey's 40 million annual unique visitors, and members are not paid for their participation. Instead, they are rewarded for taking surveys with charitable donations, made on their behalf by SurveyMonkey.

When tested against much larger research projects, Audience data has been exactly in line with larger sample sizes. For example, an Audience survey with just 400 respondents about a new Lay's potato chip flavor had the same results as a wider contest that had 3 million participants.

SurveyMonkey's survey research team was also able to use SurveyMonkey Audience to accurately predict election results in both 2012 and 2013. With a US sample size of 458 respondents and an Australian one of 312 all drawn at random, our ccTLD user preferences should reliably mirror the actual reality.

Summary

There will be many reasons that you may or may not want to use ccTLDs for your website, and a survey alone can never answer whether a ccTLD is the right strategy for any particular site. If you are thinking about making any big decisions about TLDs on your site, you should absolutely conduct some testing or surveying of your own before relying on just the recommendations of those who advise a TLD as the best strategy or the others that tell you it doesn't matter at all.

Launching a PPC campaign with a landing page on a ccTLD and measuring CTRs against a control is far cheaper than replicating your entire site on a new TLD.

Based on our survey results, here's what you should keep in mind when it comes to whether or not investing your time and money in a ccTLD is worth it:

  1. Users are absolutely aware of the TLDs and how they might relate to the contents of a website
  2. Users are aware of the connection between TLDs and countries
  3. Users do make decisions about websites based on the TLD; however there are no absolutes. Brand and content absolutely matter.

As to whether a ccTLD will work for you on your own site, give it a try and report back!


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Seth's Blog : Right of way

Right of way

It started with boats, but over the centuries, it is practiced everywhere... we establish cultural rights of way, a hierarchy of precedence about who gets to go first. We need a default because we can't always have a discussion about who goes next in the moment.

Motorboats, for example, are generally expected to veer out of the way of a sailboat (instead of the other way around). This makes sense, of course, because they have more options and can recover more easily.

That's one way to prioritize who gets to go first: the small over the big, the one who needs it over the one would could handle the interruption. It's annoying for the motorboat, but vital for the sailboat.

Lately, we seem to be making some new decisions about right of way that change this perspective. That cars ought to have right of way over pedestrians and bicycles. That huge corporations have right of way over individuals. That the authorities have the right of way over the presumed innocent, and that the marketer's infinite need-for-attention has right of way over quiet and privacy.

What would happen if the default was that roads are for pedestrians and bicycles unless otherwise stated, and what would happen if pleasing corporations was seen as an exception in the priorities of those that regulate them?

[There's no right answer in issues of societal right of way, there is nothing but compromises and judgment calls. At either extreme, everything breaks down, and so the question is: where do you want us to be? Where do you draw the line? Is it up to us?]

It's possible to argue that roads are more efficient when bikes don't clog them up, and that our illusion of security increases when the default is to know everything about everyone. Most of all, that corporations are more profitable when they don't have to worry about the people who don't fit their model.

It doesn't seem like much of a cost to ask individuals to get out of the way, until, all at once, we realize just how expensive it was to totally prioritize power and efficiency over humanity and justice.

       

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duminică, 21 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


OPEC Blames Speculators, Non-OPEC Countries, US Frackers for Oil Price Crash

Posted: 21 Dec 2014 02:21 PM PST

OPEC is pointing the finger at speculators as well as Non-OPEC countries, but especially US shale producers for the crude price crash.

Let's explore that idea in a series of charts. But first let's take a look at the allegation.

The Wall Street Journal reports Gulf Oil Exporters Blame Non-OPEC Producers for Glut.
Gulf oil officials on Sunday defended OPEC's decision last month to keep its production ceiling intact, blaming producers outside of the group for the glut of oil on the market that has depressed prices.

Speaking at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi blamed a lack of coordination from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—along with speculators and misleading information—for the slump.

OPEC officials have singled out American shale producers as a particular problem. U.S. oil production has soared as a result of the shale boom, reducing OPEC exports to the U.S.

Non-OPEC producers "will realize that it is in their interests to cooperate to ensure high prices for everyone," Mr. Naimi said.
OPEC December Monthly Oil Market Report

Are US shale frackers really to blame for the price crash?

Let's take a look using OPEC's own data. Please consider charts and other analysis from the OPEC December Monthly Oil Market Report.
OPEC vs. Non-OPEC Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to grow by 1.72 mb/d in 2014 to average 55.95 mb/d.

In November, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.05 mb/d, according to secondary sources, a decrease of 0.39 mb/d over one month earlier.



OECD Americas

OECD Americas' oil production is estimated to increase by 1.54 mb/d in 2014 to average 19.67 mb/d, the highest among all non-OPEC regions, indicating an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Strong estimates for both the US and Canada constitute the main factor behind expected supply growth, while heavy declines are seen in Mexico.



US



Developing Countries



Russia



Russia's oil supply is estimated to increase by 0.05 mb/d in 2014 to average 10.56 mb/d, an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. Production reached a record 10.67 mb/d in November as per preliminary data, an upward revision of 80 tb/d in 4Q14, with current production data for October and November indicating higher-than-expected output. Russia's production is expected to average 10.58 mb/d in 4Q14, an increase of 60 tb/d from 3Q14. Based on preliminary oil production by companies in November, not only was output not reduced, but there was an increase in volume. However, it is anticipated marginal barrel output in Russia for 2015 could decline y-o-y, given the impact of sanctions, low prices and lack of large projects expected to come online. Nevertheless, the approval of a tax overhaul by the Russian parliament, reducing crude export duty from its current 59% to 42% in January, could encourage oil producing companies in Russia to produce more.

OPEC

Total OPEC crude oil production dropped in November to average 30.05 mb/d, according to secondary sources, down by 0.39 mb/d from the previous month. Production from, Iraq increased, while crude oil output mainly in Libya, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait fell. According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production, not including Iraq, stood at 26.69 mb/d in November, down by 0.44 mb/d over the previous month.

OPEC Thousands of Barrels a Day



World Supply vs. OPEC Supply



Preliminary data indicates that the global oil supply decreased 0.19 mb/d in November 2014 to average 92.69 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply experienced growth of 0.20 mb/d, while OPEC crude oil production decreased by 0.39 mb/d. The share of OPEC crude oil in the global supply declined to 32.4% in November. This estimate is based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, estimates for OPEC NGLs and OPEC crude oil production from secondary sources.
Singling Out US and Speculators is Ridiculous

Let's dismiss the notion speculators are responsible. Speculators, don't take delivery of significant amounts of oil (if any at all) and they don't set prices, but they can swing day-to-day volatility and perhaps exaggerate trends in both directions for a while.

Ultimately this is a supply-demand issue.

US production is up by 1.45 million barrels a day since a year ago.

Total world supply is about 93 million barrels a day. The increase in US production amounts to 1.56% of global supply. Singling out the US is absurd.

There are 12 OPEC countries vs. the rest of the world. Those 12 OPEC countries represent 32.4% of global supply.

In total, there are over 200 countries that produce oil according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

An EIA chart (2012 data) will help put things in better perspective.



Countries and Producers Act Independently

It should be pretty easy to spot the problem. Countries as well as oil producers in those countries act independently.

Thus, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi's statement "Non-OPEC producers will realize that it is in their interests to cooperate to ensure high prices for everyone" is laughable.

Every country in the world wants the other countries to be the ones to cut supply. Cooperation is not going to happen. OPEC cannot even agree among its own members.

For further discussion, please see What's Behind the Plunge in Oil? Winners and Losers? Boon to Spending or Recessionary?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Europe in Wonderland

Posted: 21 Dec 2014 02:10 AM PST

If you don't have the money, spend it anyway, says the Ukrainian government.

Of course, that's no different than the philosophy of any other country, including the US.

In this case, however, Ukraine borders on default.

Please consider Ukraine Can't Scrimp on Military Spending as S&P Rating Cut.
Ukraine's president, speaking a day after the nation's junk credit rating was cut further, said next year's budget mustn't cut corners on military spending and should account for the possibility of an invasion.

"The war made us stronger, but has crushed the economy," Poroshenko said. "There's one article of spending that we won't save on and that's security.

Ukraine is finalizing next year's fiscal plan amid a new cease-fire in the conflict that's ravaged its industrial heartland near Russia's border. As its economy shrinks and reserves languish at a more than 10-year low, it's also racing to secure more international aid to top up a $17 billion rescue. Standard & Poor's said Dec. 19 that a default may become inevitable, downgrading Ukraine's credit score one step to CCC-.

With official forecasts putting this year's contraction at 7 percent, the government needs $15 billion on top of its bailout to stay afloat, according to the European Union.

The European Union and the U.S. are discussing $12 billion to $15 billion in aid to Ukraine and "there needs to be a Russian contribution to the package," Pierre Moscovici, the 28-nation bloc's economy commissioner, said at a Bloomberg Government event this week in Washington. A decision is needed in January, he said.
War Has Made Us Stronger

Ukraine president says "War has made us stronger".

That lie is so stupid my dead grandmother knows it from the grave. The evidence is a CCC- debt rating, a step or so above above default, with default imminent.

The story gets even stranger.

To avoid default, Ukraine needs a "Russian contribution to the package" according to Pierre Moscovici, the economic policy commissioner for the European Commission.

Amazing Irony

Europe and the US have crippling sanctions on Russia for the conflict in Ukraine, yet the EC wants Russia to bail out Ukraine while accusing Russia of invading Ukraine.

Icing on the wonderland-cake is the Russian Ruble has plunged nearly 50% this year, but Ukraine needs money from Russia to fight Russia.

Is this complete lunacy or what?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Daily

Daily

There's a fundamental difference between the things you do every day, every single day, and the things you do only when the spirit moves you.

One difference is that once you've committed to doing something daily, you find that the spirit moves you, daily.

Rather than having a daily debate about today's agenda, you can decide once that you will do something, and then decide every single day how to do it.

       

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sâmbătă, 20 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Evolution of YouTube: Will it Supplant Mainstream TV, Vanish, Evolve, or Languish?

Posted: 20 Dec 2014 01:23 PM PST

What will become of YouTube?

It started from nowhere about 10 years ago as an idea with no revenue and no content, then pretty quickly lots of content coupled with a plethora of copyright infringement lawsuits.

Today, YouTube gets 300 million hours of watching every day. Top content producers have millions of followers and make millions of dollars.

But where to from here?

New Play Button

The New York Times tackles that question in a fascinating story YouTube's Chief, Hitting a New 'Play' Button.

The article is about Susan Wojcicki, the chief executive of YouTube, how she got her start, and in turn how Google got its start. Wojcicki was Google's 16th employee, and she is still with Google.

The Times notes Smosh, a pair of 20-something lip-syncing comedians, have roughly 30 million subscribers to their various YouTube channels. PewDiePie, a 24-year-old Swede who provides humorous commentary while he plays video games, has a following of similar size.

"Every day, one billion people around the world watch more than 300 million hours of videos on YouTube. In November, 83 percent of Internet users in the United States watched a video on YouTube, according to comScore. In contrast successful network television shows like 'NCIS: New Orleans' or 'The Big Bang Theory' average a little more than half that in weekly viewership."

I'm at the other end of the extreme. I watch very little TV. In fact, I have never even heard of 'NCIS' or 'Big Bang'

It's a fascinating success story for 46-year old Ms. Wojcicki, one of the most powerful media executives in the world.

Where To Next?

We can all speculate, but "where-to from here" is unknown. Not even Wojcicki knows.

"Things are always changing. Part of being successful here is being comfortable with not knowing what's going to happen," said Wojcicki.

One thing for sure is that You-Tube will evolve. Expect more internet content, not less. Also expect  more forays by Google into TV-land material.

From what we have seen so far, Wojcicki is still the right person to lead the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Who let the air out of the balloon?

Who let the air out of the balloon?

Music, newspapers, books... most forms of media were exciting, high-pressure hothouses, environments with hits and winners and action and impact.

Many players in these industries are now trying to figure out where all the zing went. The mattering seems to have left. Where did it go?

It turns out that the air didn't get let out, the balloon disappeared.

Balloons have pressure because there's only one tiny opening. Scarce shelf space. Only room for one newspaper. Only forty titles on the Billboard chart. It's that opening that creates the environment that allows pressure to exist, that pulls the rest of the balloon taut.

But the opening is wide open now. The market has been offered infinity. Instead of a narrow, scarce selection of hits, those that consume media can have all of it, all the time. The long tail plus bite-sized pieces plus constant snacking.

A few generations ago, Gone With The Wind played at the only movie theater in town--every night for a year. Forty years ago, books stayed on the bestseller list for a year or more. Fifteen years ago, the front page ad on Yahoo was sold out for years in advance. Buying the one and only ad on the 'front page of the internet' was a no-brainer, a bargain at any price. Today, of course, there isn't a front page you can buy an ad on. No spot next to the cash register at the biggest chain of bookstores, either.

The abundance of choice feels like a good thing for those that want a choice. But yes, someone got rid of the balloon. All the economics are changing, as are consumption patterns, and they're shifting faster that the mindsets of those that create and publish.

Stop looking for the balloon. It's gone.

       

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