Central Perk

luni, 16 februarie 2015

How Hashtags Work on Twitter, Instagram, Google Plus, Pinterest, Facebook, Tumblr, and Flickr - Moz Blog

How Hashtags Work on Twitter, Instagram, Google Plus, Pinterest, Facebook, Tumblr, and Flickr

Posted on: Sunday 15 February 2015 — 23:06

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc.

A hashtag is the wonder of the past decade. It was born to address the need to organize and make sense of the overwhelming social media buzz. Thanks to active and creative user adoption, hashtag support has been added to most popular social media platforms.

This article shows how different social media sites make use of hashtags. Most importantly, it shares some insight into how you can make the most effective use of hashtags for your brand.

Twitter

Twitter hashtags don't support special characters like +, !, $, %, -, ^, &, *, etc. They do support letters, numbers and _ (underscore).

There are no hashtag limits (length, number) as long as you keep your message within 140 characters (which is already limiting in itself).

While Twitter hashtags are reported to increase engagement, the most efficient way to use them is through hosting and participating in Twitter chats. Here's a detailed tutorial on hosting a Twitter chat.

Event hashtags (conferences, festivals, etc.) also work very well on Twitter. You don't need to actually be in an event to network with people through the official hashtag. Event organizers usually market the official hashtag very well, which means additional exposure for you if you use it.

Twitter search results are ranked by most popular. You can switch to "All" results, which are filtered by date.

Useful Twitter Hashtag Tools:

Hashtagify tracks trending hashtags and shows "related" hashtags for any base terms you provide.
TwChat lets you discover, participate in, and easily host Twitter chats. It's also a useful tool for monitoring and archiving any hashtag streams.

Instagram

Like Twitter, Instagram hashtags don't support special characters like +, !, $, %, -, ^, &, *, etc. They do support numbers and _.

You can add up to 30 hashtags to a single photo. You can even tag your photo after publishing it. Simply list your hashtags in the comments. (Note that you can only do this for your own uploads.)

Instagram hashtags increase your following dramatically, especially if you use hot and trending hashtags.

The best use of hashtags on Instagram is to participate in hashtag games like #tbt and #MondayBlues. Both can make your Instagram posting very consistent (e.g., you have a theme for every day of the week) and increase your following and interactions.) In my experience, people are very willing to click these specific hashtags to see the photos of other participants.

Location-based hashtags also work very well for Instagram. I use both abbreviated and full location names (#la and #losangeles, for instance).

Instagram search results are sorted by "most recent".

Use Websta to track hot hashtags on Instagram.

Google Plus

The only official rule for Google Plus hashtag character support is "no spaces". However, you may have trouble using any characters (which are not letters, numbers or underscore) because Google Plus will attempt to drop them from the linked part of the hashtag.

There's no way to make a hashtag with numbers only (e.g., #2015).

Google Plus has perceived hashtags differently from the very start. Instead of letting users organize and monitor their conversations, Google Plus hashtags allow for greater exploration of the platform, by Google and users.

This explains why Google Plus updates are auto-hashtagged, meaning that they are added automatically by Google when the topic is clearly discerned.

There are no known limits to the number of hashtags you can add to Google Plus posts.

Google Plus hashtags seem to work great for exposing your updates to a wider range of people. I haven't found any research to back this up, but I've personally seen them work this way. Any time I use hashtags on Google Plus, I see more people outside of my extended circles like and comment on my content:

Unlike Twitter and Instagram, "specific" hashtags (e.g., games, events, and locations) don't seem to work well on Google Plus. Instead, I try to let Google understand what my update is about by using descriptive hashtags (e.g., #marketingtips).

Google Plus hashtag search results seem to be ranked by popularity. Moreover, search results are powered by "related" hashtags. Sometimes the result will even miss your initial search term.

Cyfe is the only tool I know of that supports searching and archiving Google Plus hashtag results.

Pinterest hashtags have been quietly supported for some time. "Supported" means the word after the # is clickable (and only in the description).

There are no official rules or limitations on the number of hashtags you can add to a Pinterest post, and Pinterest hashtags seem to support the same set of characters as most other social platforms do.

Pinterest hashtag support remains limited. If you search Pinterest by a hashtag, search results will include all types of words and phrases from the hashtag. This makes using Pinterest hashtag almost pointless.

The only reasonable way to use Pinterest hashtags is to use them for branding, especially for cross-promotion (to further spread awareness of your event, Twitter chat, etc.).

Tumblr

Tumblr hashtags work similarly to Wordpress tags. They will be linked only in the "tags" field. You can't create an in-text hashtag by simply adding # in front of a word.

Unlike Wordpress, Tumblr hashtags improve the discoverability of your updates across the whole platform.

Here's a quick example: I am not really active on Tumblr, but I do post random updates from time to time.

I treat Tumblr more as a curation tool rather than a social media network, so I've never cared about hashtags or if my updates get any visibility, which they didn't until I used a few hashtags in this post. That day I saw a sudden spike in activity on my pretty abandoned Tumblr blog!

[Note: I did nothing special to create the spike. All I did was adding a few hashtags. Seems pretty easy, right?]

You can have spaces, apostrophes, commas, dots, and many other symbols in your Tumblr hashtags.

There are no limitations as to how many hashtags you can use on Tumblr, but only the first five hashtags you use are searchable. Your update will only make it to the search results if it's an original one, not a re-blog, so don't bother adding tags if you re-blog.

Any hashtag search will bring up users who recently used those hashtags for you to follow, which means that hashtags are huge for acquiring followers on Tumblr.

Tumblr filters hashtag search results by "most popular" by default. You can switch this to "most recent".

Furthermore, Tumblr has a "track your tags" feature which allows anyone to add hashtag search results to their "favorite search". There are no stats available as to which hashtags are tracked by more people, though.

Flickr

Flickr allows all sorts of symbols to be typed after the #, but seems to only link letters and numbers. While serving the same goal (e.g., organizing photos), Flickr tags and hashtags do behave slightly differently.

Clicking on a Flickr tag brings you to search/?tags= page, where you can filter by license, search for groups, and more.
Clicking on a Flickr hashtag brings you to /explore/ page, which shows related [hash]tags and the photos with the same tags (yes, that's confusing). These results are sorted by "most recent" by default, although you can switch to "most interesting."

It's still not quite clear whether hashtags improve visibility on Flickr, or how different they are from tags, which have existed on the platform for ages. The fact that Flickr hashtags were announced and are now proactively supported in the iOS app may indicate that the whole point of a hashtag on Flickr is to make it easier to organize your photos from the iPhone.

Facebook

Facebook hashtags support the standard set of characters that most popular social platforms support.

There are no limitations as to the number of hashtags you can add to a Facebook update.

Facebook hashtag search is somewhat weird. Try searching for #california, for example. You'll likely end up landing on a Facebook page instead of a hashtag search results page.

An easier way to generate hashtag search results is to simply add the hashtag after facebook.com/hashtag/ (e.g., facebook.com/hashtag/dogs).

You can also bring up hashtag search results by clicking on any hashtag in your Facebook stream. Facebook's ranking algorithm is complicated. It seems to be a mix of lots of factors, including how closely you are related to the person posting the update, how often you interact with him/her, how popular the actual update is, etc.

I don't use hashtags on Facebook beyond random cross-posting from Instagram. I have also seen quite a few of my friends become irritated when someone uses hashtags, so I guess it's too early to tell. With Instagram's help, however, hashtags may ultimately become widely adopted by Facebook users.

To sum up...

	Twitter	Instagram	Google Plus	Pinterest	Facebook	Tumblr	Flickr
Introduced	August 23, 2007	January 27, 2011	September 25, 2013	N/A	June 12, 2013	August 18, 2009	March 17, 2013
Supported characters	Letters, numbers and _	Letters, numbers and _	Letters, numbers and _ ()no numbers-only hashtags	Letters, numbers and _	Letters, numbers and _	Any	Letters and numbers
Limitations	None	30 hashtags per update, max	None	None	None	None	None
Most effectively used to...	Brand events and hold / participate in Twitter chats	Build a brand following by participating in Instagram games	Allow Google Plus to better understand what your update is about	[Don't work for discover-ability. May still be used for branding and cross-promotion]	[Don't really work for discover-ability. Getting used more often thanks to cross-posting from Instagram]	Organize your updates and build your following	Make it easier to organize your photos from mobile device
Search results	Are ranked by most popular (You can switch to "All" which are filtered by date)	Are sorted by "most recent"	Seem to be ranked by most popular (No way to change)	Are ranked by most popular	Are ranked by many factors, including relation and popularity	Are ranked by most popular by default (You can switch to most recent)	Are ranked by most recent by default (You can switch to most interesting)
Best tools	Hashtagify & TwChat	Websta	Cyfe	-	-	-	-

(All images in this post were created by the author)

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Seth's Blog : The first rule of web design

The first rule of web design

Tell me where to click.

Just about every web page is designed to cause me to connect, to buy, to approve, to move to the next step. Okay, great. Where is the button to do that?

(click to enlarge). This is the page you see when you want to refund an order on Eventbrite. Question: Should you click on the big green square or the big grey square? Answer: It turns out you click on the little tiny blue words.

Here's the page you see to log on to a New York State site. Question: Should you log in by clicking the big green button under the box you just filled in, or the smaller blue button across the page? It turns out that the green button (green for go) actually makes you start over.

Suddenly, everyone who builds a website is in the business of making tools, and it turns out that we're not very good at making tools, especially when there's a committee involved. It takes work and focus to create a useful tool, it's more difficult than writing a memo...

Simple question with a simple answer: What do you want me to do now?

And here's why it matters: Tech is expensive. Tech is hard to change. Changing tech has all sorts of side effects and repercussions.

Language, on the other hand, can be changed on a whiteboard. Language is at the heart of communication, and the only purpose of a website is to communicate.

Get the language right first (and the colors). Tech isn't going to fix your problem, communication is.

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duminică, 15 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Greek Negotiations and Philosophical Questions

Posted: 15 Feb 2015 06:42 PM PST

Three interesting philosophical questions have arisen this evening in regards to Greek negotiations.

The three questions I ask at the bottom of this post are based on statements made by a global foreign exchange strategy chief at UniCredit bank and two negotiation demands by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

I highlighted in red and italics the source of my questions. Stop at the questions and think about your answers before reading further.

Greece Rift Wider Than Expected

As an 11th hour meeting between Greece and creditors takes place on Monday. But a larger than expected Gap Still Yawns Between the Parties.

Weekend talks uncovered a bigger-than-expected gap between the two sides, setting up a difficult stand-off between Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, and his eurozone counterparts when they meet on Monday night.

Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, is determined that Athens should stick to its rescue programme as a condition of further financial assistance. Dogged resistance to such demands from Alexis Tsipras, Greece's prime minister, has seen his poll standing soar at home, with thousands taking to the streets on Sunday in a support rally.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, leader of Syriza's far-left faction, adopted a less-emollient tone, saying he would not allow his party's economic plans to be "chopped up, subdivided or split into good and bad".

"If our so-called partners insist on an extension of the current programme in one form or another — the sinful memorandum — there won't be an agreement," he said on Sunday.

Germany wants Greece to stay in the eurozone, but not at any price. "If we go deeper into the [debt] discount debate, there will be no more reforms in Europe," said a senior German official. "There will be joyful celebrations in the Elysée and probably in Rome, too, if we go down this path."

Ahead of Monday's meeting, Vasileios Gkionakis, global foreign exchange strategy chief at UniCredit bank, wrote to clients: "I think it is fair to say that . . . the irresistible force will be meeting the immovable object."

Germany and other creditors have agreed that the three organisations supervising the bailout programme — the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank — will no longer be called "the troika", in a nod to Greek demands. But Berlin insists the same bodies will continue as Greece's watchdog, even if renamed "the institutions".

Berlin is also open to easing Greece's fiscal straitjacket. Athens wants a reduction in the proposed fiscal surplus from 4.5 per cent to around 1.5 per cent. In Berlin's view, around 3 per cent might be possible.

"Dignity Not Negotiable"

Reuters reports Greece, Confident Sticks to No-Austerity Pledge

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told Germany's Stern magazine that Athens needed time to implement its reforms and shake off the mismanagement of the past.

"I expect difficult negotiations; nevertheless I am full of confidence," he said. "I promise you: Greece will then, in six months' time, be a completely different country."

"The irresistible force will be meeting the immovable object," Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit, wrote in a note.

Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis showed no sign that Greece was backing off on its core demand.

"The Greek government is determined to stick to its commitment towards the public ... and not continue a program that has the characteristics of the previous bailout agreement," he told Greece's Skai television.

He later said: "The Greek people have made it clear that their dignity is non-negotiable. We are continuing the negotiations with the popular mandate in our hearts and in our minds."

Some of the problems facing the Eurogroup are semantic. The Greeks, for example, will not countenance anything that smacks of an "extension" to the old bailout, preferring something new called a "bridge" agreement.

Wave of Anger

This is political. Tsipras rode into power on a wave of anti-austerity and anti-bailout anger last month and would have a hard time explaining a row-back so soon. Thousands of Greeks massed outside parliament in Athens on Sunday to back his strategy.

But even a cosmetic change of labels could have practical consequences. An "extension" may not require many national ratifications unless it involves additional financial commitments from euro zone governments.

Any new bailout program, on the other hand, might require several national parliamentary ratifications and could also bring Germany's Constitutional Court into play.

Crunch Time and Domestic Rallies

Bloomberg reports Greece Faces Crunch Talks After Show of Domestic Support

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis leads a Greek government delegation back to Brussels Monday buoyed by a demonstration of support in front of Parliament in central Athens the previous evening that police put at more than 20,000 people. His goal is to secure a bridge accord that allows Greece the time and financial space to negotiate a post-bailout era.

"The stakes are high, but I doubt tonight is much more than theatrics," Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said in an e-mail. "The real showdown will come much later."

While fellow euro-area countries will "of course" discuss Greece's debt levels, "it is out of the question to cancel the debt, we can discuss its maturity," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, told Europe 1 radio Sunday.

While Tsipras's Syriza-led government has no natural political allies around the table on Monday, his support at home remains solid. Sixty-one percent of 1,015 Greek people polled by Kapa Research for To Vima newspaper this weekend said they approved of the government's approach.

Philosophical Questions

Does "Troika" by any other name stink as bad?
Is there any meaningful difference between "bridge" and "extension"?
What happens when "the irresistible force meets the immovable object"?

Think carefully especially about question number three before reading further. There is a correct answer to question number three that will likely surprise some.

Philosophical Answers

Beauty is in the nose of the beholder. But logically, the answer is yes.
No.
The question is ridiculous. In fact, it's impossible. By definition if there is such a thing as an "irresistible force" then by definition, there cannot be an "immovable object". Likewise, if there exists an "immovable object" then by definition there cannot be a an "irresistible force".

The "irresistible force vs. immovable object" analogy by Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit, is logically ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Creating Incentives to Reduce Healthcare Costs; Medical Tourism Can Save Us All Money

Posted: 15 Feb 2015 09:55 AM PST

An Opinion article in the Washington Post by John R. Graham explains How Domestic Medical Tourism Could Save Us All Money.

One of the most under-reported medical success stories in recent years has been the increase in medical tourism: traveling abroad to get high-quality care at a fraction of what it would cost in the United States.

The same Lasik eye surgery that might cost $4,400 here (for both eyes) is available in India, for example, for $500, according to the Medical Tourism Association. A heart-valve replacement that might cost $170,000 in the United States could cost less than $30,000 in Israel.

While going overseas for care isn't for most people, it certainly should make us wonder why we don't encourage Americans, especially Medicare recipients whose bills are largely paid by taxpayers, to at least shop around in their own states or communities.

The best way to slow this growth is not by putting the squeeze on Medicare beneficiaries, as well as drug companies, hospitals and other providers — as President Obama's $4 trillion budget plan would do — or by creating new bureaucratic barriers to care, but by providing Medicare recipients with incentives to seek the best care for the best price. And you do that by allowing them to share in the gains from reducing costs.

Creating Incentives

Graham proposes that instead of Medicare doing competitive bidding, let medicare recipients shop for services then reward them by adding a portion of the savings to their monthly Social Security deposits.

I suggest that if people are healthy enough to travel, they should be required to get a heart valve operation done in Israel for $30,000 rather than $170,000 here.

And there is no reason to stop at Medicare. Insurers could easily offer reduced-rate plans at less cost for those willing to travel abroad.

Right now, there are virtually no incentives anywhere in the system for people to lower costs. Put incentives in to lower costs, and costs will come down.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : "I just made a fool of myself"

"I just made a fool of myself"

Actually, it's far more likely that you made a human of yourself.

When you drop your guard, opt for transparency and make an honest connection with someone, you're right on the edge of foolishness, which is another word for not-corporate, not-aloof, not-safe. Another word for human.

Most of the time, we persuade ourselves not to make a fool and so instead, we shut down a connection that could have become precious for us and for them.

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sâmbătă, 14 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Ceasefire or Not? Will Kiev Honor Agreement? Poroshenko Says "Prepare for Martial Law"
Discount and Department Stores Boost Manager Ranks by 46% in Two Years, Hours Up 88%
Pessimism in Spain: 83% Say Economic Situation is Bad; Podemos Takes Huge Lead in Latest Poll

Ceasefire or Not? Will Kiev Honor Agreement? Poroshenko Says "Prepare for Martial Law"

Posted: 14 Feb 2015 08:51 PM PST

A ceasefire in Ukraine is supposedly underway. However there are many indications it won't last long. Let's take a look starting with a critical issue.

Kiev Denies Amnesty and Constitution Agreements

It seems highly unlikely that the separatists will honor the ceasefire given Kiev Denies Amnesty and Constitution Agreements. My translation follows.

Kiev is not going to honor two important points of the new Minsk new agreements: Amnesty and commitment to constitutional reform.

Speaking on Friday at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, said amnesty will not apply to the separatist leaders who are guilty of "crimes against humanity". Foreign Minister also noted that Ukraine did not incur any obligation on making specific changes to the Constitution of the country.

The most difficult issue in resolving the situation in the Donbas continues to be the so-called debaltsevsky boiler in the Donetsk region, where, according to the separatists, several thousand Ukrainian military were surrounded. Kiev denies this information.

Clashes Intensify Ahead of Ceasefire

The Guardian reports Fears for Ukraine's ceasefire as clashes with Russia-backed rebels intensify

Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebel militias in the east of the country intensified on Saturday as fears grew for the durability of a ceasefire agreement that took effect at 12.01am on Sunday local time (10.01pm GMT on Saturday).

In an inauspicious omen for the prospects of any cessation of hostilities, rebels have said they will not consider any battles for the town to be a violation of the ceasefire.

In an inauspicious omen for the prospects of any cessation of hostilities, rebels have said they will not consider any battles for the town to be a violation of the ceasefire.

Even before the peace plan was agreed, 50 Russian tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles had crossed into Ukraine, Kiev claimed. The Ukrainians were moving up reinforcements on Saturday as well, in the hope that a ceasefire would allow them to reach Debaltseve, a national guard commander told the Observer.

[Hmmmm can I see some images of those tanks please?]

British equipment is now also reportedly in Ukraine after a private firm sold 20 decommissioned British army Saxon armoured vehicles to Kiev.

Kiev also seemed to be bracing itself for continued clashes. Poroshenko warned on Saturday that, if the ceasefire did not work, he would declare a state of martial law across the country.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the rebel leader in the city of Donetsk, was quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency as saying his fighters would not allow Ukrainian forces to escape Debaltseve. Separatists have said the Ukrainian troops there would be offered only the opportunity to surrender.

Although rebels have been able to virtually surround Debaltseve and pound it with rockets and artillery, the road connecting the city with Ukrainian forces in Artemivsk is not fully under either side's control.

Surrounded

Regarding the Debaltseve Boiler I offer this translation from Colonel Cassad.

The junta's attempts to break through the corridor to Debaltseve failed. Moreover, the WPC not only repeled the attacks of the enemy along the M-103, but they themselves went on the offensive on Debaltseve and there in the evening unfolded fierce battles with tanks and artillery. As expected, the remaining days before a possible truce, the parties will try to spend in the area Debaltseve "as productively as possible." Tonight's the night and all the next day seems to pass very hard and a lot of people will die.

That report is now a day old, but with the trapped Ukrainian forces running out of ammunition, the situation for those trapped is bleak.

Truce?

The "truce" is now at hand. Translation of Colonel Cassad regarding the truce is even more difficult than usual. As best as I can tell, Ukraine has proclaimed victories just ahead of the truce. To which Cassad sarcastically replied "Experience shows that if Grishin writes about victories on Facebook, then with the troops of the junta there was something wrong.".

DNR Says Ceasefire Does Not Apply to Debaltsevo

For icing on the "truce" cake Colonel Cassad reports DNR Says Ceasefire Does Not Apply to Debaltsevo. This time I have a translation from Jacob Dreizin.

Zakharchenko as well as DNR [separtist] defense ministry spokesman Basurin stated today that the ceasefire does not apply to the Debaltsevo cauldron.

The reasoning seems to be that the cauldron is south of the agreed-upon line of contact between the DNR/LNR and Ukrainian forces, along which the ceasefire applies.

Hence, if the encircled forces do not surrender, then they are violating the ceasefire (i.e. not being where they are supposed to be) and their liquidation would not be a violation of the Minsk agreement.

Another consideration is that the Ukrainians in the cauldron would not be able to withdraw their artillery a sufficient distance (for obvious reasons), as required by Minsk, and thus, they would be violating the ceasefire and subject to liquidation.

By the way, pro-DNR/LNR sources are claiming that the encircled Ukrainians are starting to run low on ammunition.

Real Ceasefire Reason

Jacob wondered if "President Poroshenko was unaware that there was a cauldron, with his army was keeping the truth from him, simply to support their own needed propaganda."

I propose an alternative idea: Things were going so badly for Ukraine that Poroshenko felt he had no choice, especially with pressure from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Regardless, the above commentary sets the tone. No matter how Kiev and Western media spins a breakage of the truce, Kiev never wanted to grant amnesty, nor institute constitutional reforms.

Unless and until Kiev is willing to agree to a federation with real autonomy for the separatist regions, I suggest no truce can last.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Discount and Department Stores Boost Manager Ranks by 46% in Two Years, Hours Up 88%

Posted: 14 Feb 2015 12:38 PM PST

In the last two years, hours worked by managers at discount and department stores are up 86% while hours worked by nonsupervisor employees is down.

Why? Supervisors, don't get paid overtime. It's yet another artifact of Obamacare.

Please consider The Obama Recovery's Illusory Manager Hiring Binge by Jed Graham.

Retailers and other modest-wage employers increasingly are relying on managers, an unusual feature of the Obama economic recovery. Discount and department stores have boosted managers' ranks by 46% in less than two years, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show. And their hours worked have nearly doubled.

In reality, this is a classification change more than a hiring binge, and a logical response to the Obamacare employer mandate to provide full-time workers with health insurance or pay a fine. As companies shift some workers below 30 hours per week to avoid the mandate, they also have an incentive to stretch the cost of insuring full-timers over as many hours of work as possible.

Nowhere has the shift to managers been more visible than among general merchandise retailers. Since the start of 2013, when the earliest measurement period for the ObamaCare employer mandate got underway (only to be postponed in July of that year), managers at discount and department stores are working 6 million more hours each week, up a hard-to-believe 88% by November 2014. Meanwhile, the ranks of managers have increased by about 92,000, or 46%.

Congratulations!

Congratulations, you are now a manager, but don't expect any more money. Instead, expect to work 50 hours for the same or slightly more pay.

Obama wants to put an end to that by revamping overtime rules for the first time since 2004.

Current: Only salaried workers who make less than $455 a week, or $23,660 a year, are guaranteed overtime pay.
Department of Labor Proposal: $42,000 a year ($808 a week).
EPI Recommendation: The Economic Policy Institute (EPI), wants to increase the limit to a minimum of $51,168 ($984 a week).

EPI Proposals

The Department of Labor threshold would expand overtime to 3.5 million managers, while EPI Proposals would affect between 6.1 million and 10.4 million workers.

In the past year, four significant proposals have been made. The lowest proposal, for a threshold of $807 per week or $42,000 a year, is rumored to be under consideration at the Department of Labor (DOL). Jared Bernstein and I recommended a simple inflation adjustment of the 1975 threshold: $984 per week or $51,168 a year. In a paper for EPI, Heidi Shierholz suggested that $1,122 per week, or $58,344 a year, was appropriate because it would guarantee that the same share of salaried workers receive overtime protection as were protected in 1975—after adjusting for the different educational composition of the workforce today. The highest figure, proposed by Nick Hanauer, is $1,327 per week, or $69,004 a year. It represents the salary level that would cover the same share of salaried workers as in 1975, but without adjustments for changed demographics.

National Retail Federation President Matthew Shay last fall called on industry leaders to "work overtime on overtime.

"The proposal is targeted largely at retailers: Overtime could become mandatory for assistant managers making as much as $50,000 if they spend too much time jumping in to work a cash register, stock shelves or help customers," Shay wrote.

If Obama does what the EPI asks, expect the ranks of managers to thin dramatically with still more reliance on parttime work and still more double-counting of employees in the establishment job survey.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Pessimism in Spain: 83% Say Economic Situation is Bad; Podemos Takes Huge Lead in Latest Poll

Posted: 14 Feb 2015 02:03 AM PST

Pessimism in the Streets

In spite of the "recovery" in Spain, close to 24% are still unemployed. That statistic explains Pessimism in the Streets.

The crisis is here to stay according to significant majority of Spaniards. The general perception is that the current situation in which the country is negative and far from getting better, can only stay stagnant or even worse.

A Metroscopia poll published in El País makes it clear that the Spanish are unhappy with the current state of the country. Five out of six (83%) see the economic situation as "bad", while more than half of the remaining perceive "regular".

More than half of respondents (52%) believe that in the coming months nothing will change, compounded with 15% who think things will get worse.

Podemos Takes Huge Lead in Latest Poll

Taking things one step further, overall pessimism explains the results of the latest election polls as Voters Punish PSOE and PP.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his People's Party are in serious trouble in the upcoming elections later this year.

Dissatisfaction

In spite of the alleged recovery in Spain voters are dissatisfied. Why? Unemployment is still near 24% and youth unemployment is still over 50%.

Recall that Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. The euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it ." said Iglesias.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Measure what you care about (re: the big sign over your desk)

Measure what you care about (re: the big sign over your desk)

It's not always easy to measure what matters. Sometimes, the thing that matters doesn't make it easy for you to measure it.

The easiest path is to find a stand-in for what you care about and measure that instead. For example, websites don't actually care about how many minutes someone spends on the site, they care about transactions or ad sales or making content that moves people to take action. But those things might be harder to measure at first, so they focus on minutes.

The problem with stand-ins is that they're almost always not quite right. The stand-in looks good at first, but then employees figure out how to game the system to make the stand-in number go up instead of the thing you're actually trying to change.

A good way to find out: If you had to choose between increasing the stand-in stat and increasing the thing you actually care about, which would you invest in?

Roses, chocolates and greeting cards are a stand-in for actual human emotions, a stand-in for caring and respect and love. But of course, it's way easier to make the expense on chocolate go up than it is to actually care more.

Political fundraisers use money as a stand-in for votes, and in the short run, it might be. But not forever.

Authors use bestseller lists as a stand-in for making an impact, and in the short run, it might be. But of course, one thing is a lot easier to game than the other.

The moment you start heavily investing in making a stand-in number increase, it's worth taking a minute to look at the big sign hanging over your desk (you do have a big sign, right?) that says what you're actually seeking to do, the change you're working to make. Make that go up, even if you don't have an easy stand-in handy.

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vineri, 13 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Senator Inhofe Sponsors Ukraine Military Weapons Bill Based on Images of Russian Soldiers in Georgia in 2008

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 11:59 AM PST

On February 11, US Senator Jim Inhofe authored a Bill to Arm Ukraine with Lethal Military Aid.

Mr. President I rise today to introduce my bill that authorizes the President to provide lethal weapons to the Government of Ukraine in order to defend itself against Russian-backed rebel separatists in eastern Ukraine.

On January 15, 2015, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated, "For several months we have seen the presence of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, as well as a substantial increase in Russian heavy equipment such as tanks, artillery, and advanced air defense systems."

These photographs were given to me by Lt Col Semen Semenchenko, the commander of Donbas Volunteer Assault Battalion and newly elected member of the parliament of Ukraine, during our meeting on 13 Nov last year.

The first set of pictures show Russian troops in T-72 tanks, BTR armored personnel carriers, and BMP infantry fighting vehicles entering eastern Ukraine, waiving Russian flags. This is not simply supporting separatists – it is an invasion of the Ukraine by Russia.

The second set of picture were taken by Ukrainian soldiers on the front line in eastern Ukraine.

Fake Pictures

According to Ukraine and NATO, there are 5,000 Russian troops swarming Ukraine with more coming in every day.

Thus one might expect Senator Inhofe to have a basket of images to use as justification for US warmongering.

Instead, it turns out the pictures were fake. They show Russian troops in Georgia in 2008.

Colonel Cassad Explains

Via translation from Colonel Cassad Photos that were the Basis of Preparation of the Law on the Supply of US Weapons to Ukraine Were Fake.

US Republican senator Jim Inhofe was furious to find out that Ukrainian parliament gave him fake pictures as evidence the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine. The senator gave these pictures to the Washington Free Beacon for publication. Readers immediately noticed something was wrong.

Later publication reported that the images "raised a number of issues," and this fact is being checked.

"Some of the photos of Russian military were made in 2008 during the conflict in Georgia" admitted the journalists. Other photos were taken years before in other armed conflicts. Be that as it may, these images were transferred to a reception Senator Jim Inhofe in December 2014 under the guise of photo chronicle of events in Ukraine.

Inhofe Tricked

No major western news site has picked up this story.

I did find this Free Beacon story Inhofe Criticizes Ukrainian Group for Providing Misleading Photos.

Following publication of this story, serious questions have been raised about the authenticity of some of the photographs provided by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R., Okla.). Several images of the Russian convoys appear to have been taken in 2008, during Russia's conflict with Georgia. Given the similarities between the earlier images and those provided by the senator's office, the Washington Free Beacon is investigating further and will update as necessary.

When asked about the discrepancies, Donelle Harder, Inhofe's communications director, said that the office is checking back with its sources.

"These were presented to the Armed Services Committee from a delegation from Ukraine in December," Harder said. "In December, we talked to them about publishing the photos and giving them the credit, and they were fine with that. We thoroughly checked our sources again prior to releasing the photos, and felt confident proceeding because the photos also match reporting. We are currently making calls to our sources."

UPDATE 7:10 P.M.: Sen. Inhofe said in a statement: "The Ukrainian parliament members who gave us these photos in print form as if it came directly from a camera really did themselves a disservice. We felt confident to release these photos because the images match the reporting of what is going on in the region. I was furious to learn one of the photos provided now appears to be falsified from an AP photo taken in 2008. This doesn't change the fact that there is plenty of evidence Russia has made advances into the country with T-72 tanks and that pro-Russian separatists have been killing Ukrainians in cold blood."

The Washington Free Beacon regrets the error.

Inhofe Tweets

Tweet: What a f'ing joke. WFB runs photos from Inhofe as proof Russia arming Ukraine. At least 1 from Russo-Georgian War.

Response 1: "One of them goes back to at least 2012:

Response 2: "Also from Russo-Georgian War. You can see structures in other photographs"

Response 3: "So @jiminhofe's 'new intel' on Ukraine armor consists, in part, of 2 photos from Ossetia, 1 AFP wire service photo"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Obama Asks Congress for "Limited" War on ISIS; Explaining "Limited"; Republicans Seek "Robust" War

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 10:45 AM PST

On Wednesday, president Obama Asked Congress to Back War on Isis.

Six months after US planes began bombing Jihadi militants in Iraq and Syria, President Barack Obama is taking a political gamble by asking Congress to approve the military operation.

The White House on Wednesday sent to Congress a new war powers resolution to authorise a "limited" military campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) for the next three years.

In a statement at the White House, Mr Obama said the resolution was designed to give the "flexibility we need for unforeseen circumstances". He would consider using US forces in Iraq or Syria if, for instance, the US received information about a meeting of Isis leaders.

But he insisted that the US was not getting "dragged back into another prolonged ground war in the Middle East". The resolution was "not the authorisation of another ground war, like Afghanistan or Iraq".

Although operations against Isis so far have taken place only in Iraq and Syria, the resolution places no geographic limits on the fight against either Isis or what it calls "associated persons or forces" — a phrase that has been used in the past to justify counter-terrorism operations against a range of different groups.

However, at the same time the resolution calls on the next president to return to Congress in three years' time to either justify or change the military campaign and bars the US military from conducting what it calls "enduring offensive ground combat operations".

Explaining "Limited"

Don't worry. War will be "limited" just like Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, and other initially limited engagements.
It can't last longer than three years because of the "stringent requirement" that the next president would have to ask for an extension.
Besides, ground troops won't be used, unless of course they are.
And operations will be limited to Iraq and Syria except as needed to target "associated persons or forces" anywhere in the world.

In other words, Obama seeks approval to pretty much do whatever the hell he wants. Realistically, there are no limitations.

Republicans Seek "Robust" War

However, war hawks in Congress, don't want to deal with even theoretical limitations. For example, House Speaker John Boehner quipped "If we are going to defeat this enemy, we need a comprehensive military strategy and a robust authorization, not one that limits our options. The president's request did not give military commanders "the flexibility and authorities they need to succeed and protect our people".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 16 februarie 2015

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