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luni, 2 martie 2015

Mastering Serving the User as Centroid to Reach Local Searchers - Moz Blog

Mastering Serving the User as Centroid to Reach Local Searchers

Posted on: Monday 02 March 2015 — 01:15

"Google is getting better at detecting location at a more granular level—even on the desktop. The user is the new centroid." - David Mihm

The history of the centroid

The above quote succinctly summarizes the current state of affairs for local business owners and their customers. The concept of a centroid— a central point of relevance—is almost as old as local search. In 2008, people like Mike Blumenthal and Google Maps Manager Carter Maslan were sharing statistics like this:

"...research indicates that up to 80% of the variation in rank can be explained by distance from the centroid on certain searches."

At that time, businesses located near town hall or a similar central hub appeared to be experiencing a ranking advantage.

Fast forward to 2013, and Mike weighed in again with an updated definition of "industry centroids",

"If you read their (Google's) patents, they actually deal with the center of the industries … as defining the center of the search. So if all the lawyers are on the corner of Main and State, that typically defines the center of the search, rather than the center of the city… it isn't even the centroid of the city that matters. It matters that you are near where the other people in your industry are."

In other words, Google's perception of a centralized location for auto dealerships could be completely different than that for medical practices, and that neither might be located anywhere near the city center.

While the concepts of city and industry centroids may still play a part in some searches, local search results in 2015 clearly indicate Google's shift toward deeming the physical location of the desktop or mobile user a powerful factor in determining relevance. The relationship between where your customer is when he performs a search and where your business is physically located has never been more important.

Moreover, in this new, user-centric environment, Google has moved beyond simply detecting cities to detecting neighborhoods and even streets. What this means for local business owners is that your hyperlocal information has become a powerful component of your business data. This post will teach you how to better serve your most local customers.

Seeing the centroid in action

If you do business in a small town with few competitors, ranking for your product/service + city terms is likely to cover most of your bases. The user-as-centroid phenomenon is most applicable in mid-to-large sized towns and cities with reasonable competition. I'll be using two districts in San Francisco—Bernal Heights and North Beach—in these illustrations and we'll be going on a hunt for pizza.

On a desktop, searching for "pizza north beach san francisco" or setting my location to this neighborhood and city while searching for the product, Google will show me something like this:

local result north beach pizza san francisco

Performing this same search, but with "bernal heights" substituted, Google shows me pizzerias in a completely different part of the city:

local result bernal heights pizza san francisco

And, when I move over to my mobile device, Google narrows the initial results down to just three enviable players in each district. These simple illustrations demonstrate Google's increasing sensitivity to serving me nearby businesses offering what I want.

The physical address of your business is the most important factor in serving the user as centroid. This isn't something you can control, but there are things you can do to market your business as being highly relevant to your hyperlocal geography.

Specialized content for the user-centroid

We'll break this down into four common business models to help get you thinking about planning content that serves your most local customers.

1. Single-location business

Make the shift toward viewing your business not just as "Tony's Pizza in San Francisco", but as "Tony's Pizza in North Beach, San Francisco". Consider:

Improving core pages of your website or creating new pages to include references to the proud part you play in the neighborhood scene. Talk about the history of your area and where you fit into that.
Interview locals and ask them to share their memories about the neighborhood and what they like about living there.
Showcase your participation in local events.
Plan an event, contest or special for customers in your district.
Take pictures, label them with hyperlocal terms, post them on your site and share them socially.
Blog about local happenings that are relevant to you and your customers, such as a street market where you buy the tomatoes that top your pizzas or a local award you've won.
Depending on your industry, there will be opportunities for hyperlocal content specific to your business. For example, a restaurant can make sure its menu is in crawlable text and can name some favorite dishes after the neighborhood—The Bernal Heights Special. Meanwhile, a spa in North Beach can create a hyperlocal name for a service—The North Beach Organic Spa Package. Not only does this show district pride, but customers may mention these products and services by name in their reviews, reinforcing your local connection.

2. Multi-location business within a single city

All that applies to the single location applies to you, too, but you've got to find a way to scale building out content for each neighborhood.

If your resources are strong, build a local landing page for each of your locations, including basic optimization for the neighborhood name. Meanwhile, create blog categories for each neighborhood and rotate your efforts on a week by week basis. First week, blog about neighborhood A, next week, find something interesting to write about concerning neighborhood B. Over time, you'll have developed a nice body of content proving your involvement in each district.
If you're short on resources, you'll still want to build out a basic landing page for each of your stores in your city and make the very best effort you can to showcase your neighborhood pride on these pages.

3. Multiple businesses, multiple cities

Again, scaling this is going to be key and how much you can do will depend upon your resources.

The minimum requirement will be a landing page on the site for each physical location, with basic optimization for your neighborhood terms.
Beyond this, you'll be making a decision about how much hyperlocal content you can add to the site/blog for each district, or whether time can be utilized more effectively via off-site social outreach. If you've got lots of neighborhoods to cover in lots of different cities, designating a social representative for each store and giving him the keys to your profiles (after a training session in company policies) may make the most sense.

4. Service area businesses (SABs)

Very often, service area businesses are left out in the cold with various local developments, but in my own limited testing, Google is applying at least some hyperlocal care to these business models. I can search for a neighborhood plumber, just as I would a pizza:

local results plumber bernal heights san francisco

To be painstakingly honest, plumbers are going to have to be pretty ingenious to come up with a ton of engaging industry/neighborhood content and may be confined mainly to creating some decent service area landing pages that share a bit about their work in various neighborhoods. Other business models, like contractors, home staging firms and caterers should find it quite easy to talk about district architecture, curb appeal and events on a hyperlocal front.

While your SAB is still unlikely to beat out a competitor with a physical location in a given neighborhood, you still have a chance to associate your business with that area of your town with well-planned content.

Need creative inspiration for the writing projects ahead? Don't miss this awesome wildcard search tip Mary Bowling shared at LocalUp. Add an underscore or asterisk to your search terms and just look at the good stuff Google will suggest to you:

wildcard search content ideas

Does Tony's patio make his business one of Bernal Heights' dog-friendly restaurants or does his rooftop view make his restaurant the most picturesque lunch spot in the district? If so, he's got two new topics to write about, either on his basic landing pages or his blog.

Hop over to Whitespark's favorite takeaways from Mike Ramsey's LocalUp presentation, too.

Citations and reviews with the user centroid in mind

Here are the basics about citations, broken into the same four business models:

1. Single-location business

You get just one citation on each platform, unless you have multiple departments or practitioners. That means one Google+ Local page, one Yelp profile, one Best of the Web listing. etc. You do not get one citation for your city and another for your neighborhood. Very simple.

2. Multi-location business within a single city

As with the single location business, you are entitled to just one set of citations per physical location. That means one Google+ Local listing for your North Beach pizza place and another for your restaurant in Bernal Heights.

A regular FAQ here in the Moz Q&A Forum relates to how Google will differentiate between two businesses located in the same city. Here are some tips:

Google no longer supports the use of modifiers in the business name field, so you can no longer be Tony's Pizza - Bernal Heights, unless your restaurant is actually named this. You can only be Tony's Pizza.
Facebook's policies are different than Google's. To my understanding, Facebook won't permit you to build more than one Facebook Place for the identical brand name. Thus, to comply with their guidelines, you must differentiate by using those neighborhood names or other modifiers. Given that this same rule applies to all of your competitors, this should not be seen as a danger to your NAP consistency, because apparently, no multi-location business creating Facebook Places will have 100% consistent NAP. The playing field is, then, even.
The correct place to differentiate your businesses on all other platforms is in the address field. Google will understand that one of your branches is on A St. and the other is on B St. and will choose which one they feel is most relevant to the user.
Google is not a fan of call centers. Unless it's absolutely impossible to do so, use a unique local phone number for each physical location to prevent mix-ups on Google's part, and use this number consistently across all web-based mentions of the business.
Though you can't put your neighborhood name in the title, you can definitely include it in the business description field most citation platforms provide.
Link your citations to their respective local landing pages on your website, not to your homepage.

3. Multiple businesses, multiple cities

Everything in business model #2 applies to you as well. You are allowed one set of citations for each of your physical locations, and while you can't modify your Google+ Local business name, you can mention your neighborhood in the description. Promote each location equally in all you do and then rely on Google to separate your locations for various users based on your addresses and phone numbers.

4. SABs

You are exactly like business model #1 when it comes to citations, with the exception of needing to abide by Google's rules about hiding your address if you don't serve customers at your place of business. Don't build out additional citations for neighborhoods you serve, other cities you serve or various service offerings. Just create one citation set. You should be fine mentioning some neighborhoods in your citation descriptions, but don't go overboard on this.

When it comes to review management, you'll be managing unique sets of reviews for each of your physical locations. One method for preventing business owner burnout is to manage each location in rotation. One week, tend to owner responses for Business A. Do Business B the following week. In week three, ask for some reviews for Business A and do the same for B in week four. Vary the tasks and take your time unless faced with a sudden reputation crisis.

You can take some additional steps to "hyperlocalize" your review profiles:

Write about your neighborhood in the business description on your profile.
You can't compel random customers to mention your neighborhood, but you can certainly do so from time to time when your write responses. "We've just installed the first soda fountain Bernal Heights has seen since 1959. Come have a cool drink on us this summer."
Offer a neighborhood special to people who bring in a piece of mail with their address on it. Prepare a little handout for all-comers, highlighting a couple of review profiles where you'd love to hear how they liked the Bernal Heights special. Or, gather email addresses if possible and follow up via email shortly after the time of service.
If your business model is one that permits you to name your goods or service packages, don't forget the tip mentioned earlier about thinking hyperlocal when brainstorming names. Pretty cool if you can get your customers talking about how your "North Beach Artichoke Pizza" is the best pie in town!

Investigate your social-hyperlocal opportunties

I still consider website-based content publication to be more than half the battle in ranking locally, but sometimes, real-time social outreach can accomplish things static articles or scheduled blog posts can't. The amount of effort you invest in social outreach should be based on your resources and an assessment of how naturally your industry lends itself to socialization. Fire insurance salesmen are going to find it harder to light up their neighborhood community than yoga studios will. Consider your options:

Check out this intro to social-local platforms here on Moz.
Get inspired by this up-to-date article from StreetFight Mag, How Small Businesses Can Nail Social Marketing.
Use Follerwonk to discover your nearest neighbors on Twitter.

Remember that you are investigating each opportunity to see how it stacks up not just to promoting your location in your city, but in your neighborhood.

Who are the people in your neighborhood?

Remember that Sesame Street jingle? It hails from a time when urban dwellers strongly identified with a certain district of hometown. People were "from the neighborhood." If my grandfather was a Mission District fella, maybe yours was from Chinatown. Now, we're shifting in fascinating directions. Even as we've settled into telecommuting to jobs in distant states or countries, Amazon is offering one hour home delivery to our neighbors in Manhattan. Doctors are making house calls again! Any day now, I'm expecting a milkman to start making his rounds around here. Commerce has stretched to span the globe and now it's zooming in to meet the needs of the family next door.

If the big guys are setting their sights on near-instant services within your community, take note. You live in that community. You talk, face-to-face, with your neighbors every day and know the flavor of the local scene better than any remote competitor can right now.

Now is the time to reinvigorate that old neighborhood pride in the way you're visualizing your business, marketing it and personally communicating to customers that you're right there for them.

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Seth's Blog : Stupid is the brand killer

Stupid is the brand killer

When you make your customer feel stupid, you've given him no choice. He needs to blame you.

Some ways to make people feel stupid:

Charge different prices at different outlets and shrug your shoulders when you get found out.
Insist that the warranty ends precisely the day you said it would.
Give new customers a great discount for signing up, but tell long-term customers that they're out of luck.
Make your expensive items less networked, less powerful and less reliable than your cheaper ones.
Give your customers a product, idea or service that causes them to be ridiculed or shamed by people they hope to impress.
Sell the private data you get from customers to other marketers without asking first.
Put the important information in your terms and conditions, in little tiny type.
Collect money as though you're in the long-term relationship business, but in every other way, act like you don't expect the relationship to last.
Talk about your customers (students/clients/members) behind their back in a way you'd never talk to their face (hint: it'll get back to them).
Lower your pricing but don't honor it for people who just bought from you. That shrug again.
Scold someone because the last three people already heard you just answer that question (but we didn't...)
Assume the worst about a customer's intent, intelligence and background.

Most people (particularly the customers you seek) don't mind paying a little extra if it comes with dignity, confidence and a smile.

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duminică, 1 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Chicago's Fiscal Freefall: Moody's Cuts Chicago Credit Rating to Two Steps Above Junk; Snake Oil and Swaps; It's All Junk Now
Austria "Bad Bank" Goes Bad, $8.5 Billion "Bail-In" Underway
Australia's Mining Bust Turns Towns Into Ghost Towns; Expect Interest Rate "Shock and Awe"

Chicago's Fiscal Freefall: Moody's Cuts Chicago Credit Rating to Two Steps Above Junk; Snake Oil and Swaps; It's All Junk Now

Posted: 01 Mar 2015 09:25 PM PST

Last week I wrote an article for the Illinois Policy Institute on the hugely unfunded and deteriorating nature of numerous Illinois' pension systems.

I will post the article on Monday.

My article was on on state pension systems, not Chicago's, and was written well ahead of downgrades of Chicago's debt by Moody's on Friday. I was not surprised to see the downgrade.

Let's take a look at some articles on the debt downgrade starting with Chicago Credit Rating Cut by Moody's to Two Steps Above Junk.

Chicago had its credit rating cut to within two steps of junk by Moody's Investors Service because of mounting pension liabilities, underscoring the city's fiscal stress as Mayor Rahm Emanuel faces an unprecedented runoff.

The one-step reduction to Baa2 affects $8.3 billion of general-obligation bonds, which were already the lowest-rated among the 90 biggest U.S. cities, excluding Detroit. The outlook remains negative, signaling more cuts are possible, New York-based Moody's said Friday in a report.

"The city's credit quality could weaken as unfunded pension liabilities grow and exert increased pressure on the city's operating budget," Moody's analysts Matthew Butler and Rachel Cortez wrote. "We expect substantial growth in unfunded pension liabilities even if the city's recent pension reforms survive an ongoing legal challenge."

The third-most-populous U.S. city has $20 billion in unfunded pension obligations that it can't address without the approval of the state legislature. State lawmakers in June restructured two city pension plans with about $9.4 billion in underfunded liabilities for about 60,000 municipal workers and retirees by making them pay more and reducing benefits. The changes didn't apply to the police and fire systems.

Labor unions in Chicago sued to block the law in December, and the litigation was put on hold pending the outcome of an Illinois Supreme Court ruling on a state pension overhaul.

Chicago May Owe Wall Street $58 Million After Moody's Rating Cut

To add insult to injury, Chicago May Owe Wall Street $58 Million After Moody's Rating Cut

Chicago may have to pay $58 million to unwind interest-rate swaps after Moody's Investors Service cut the city's credit rating within two steps of junk because of mounting pension liabilities.

The reduction on Friday to Baa2 affects $8.3 billion of general-obligation bonds, which were already the lowest-rated among the 90 biggest U.S. cities, excluding Detroit. The outlook remains negative, signaling more cuts are possible, underscoring the city's fiscal stress as Mayor Rahm Emanuel faces a runoff election.

Because of stipulations in four of the city's swaps contracts, which it entered into as a hedge, the rating cut may terminate the agreements early and trigger the $58 million cost, Moody's said in a report. The city is also closer to ratings that may force an additional $133 million of payments.

"This is a very significant, negative development for the city of Chicago's financial position," Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, a nonpartisan research group in Chicago, said in an interview. "This is a very big deal."

Swaps agreements, which issuers enter into with banks, exchange fixed interest payments for floating ones. They're designed to cut borrowing costs. They can backfire when interest rates move in an unexpected direction, as happened in the U.S. with the Federal Reserve keeping its overnight target close to zero since 2008. Most swaps can be ended if one party fails to maintain a minimum credit rating, requiring payment of the entire amount due.

Chicago has 15 agreements tied to variable-rate general-obligation debt and one to variable-rate sales-tax bonds, according to Moody's. While the company said the city has the resources to cover the $58 million payment, it said the cut moves Chicago closer to further termination payments triggered by going below Baa2 or Baa3.

Chicago, like Illinois, has struggled with rising pension costs. The city is obligated to pay $600 million into four pension funds in next year's budget, though Standard & Poor's said the contribution may be delayed after Feb. 24 elections led to a runoff vote between Emanuel and Jesus "Chuy" Garcia.

Fiscal Freefall

Reuters has still more gloomy details in its report Chicago Nears Fiscal Free Fall with Latest Downgrade.

Chicago's finances are already sagging under an unfunded pension liability Moody's has pegged at $32 billion and that is equal to eight times the city's operating revenue. The city has a $300 million structural deficit in its $3.53 billion operating budget and is required by an Illinois law to boost the 2016 contribution to its police and fire pension funds by $550 million.

Cost-saving reforms for the city's other two pension funds, which face insolvency in a matter of years, are being challenged in court by labor unions and retirees.

State funding due Chicago would drop by $210 million between July 1 and the end of 2016 under a plan proposed by Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner.

Moody's said Chicago's rating could be cut if Illinois courts find pension reform laws enacted to shore up the state's financially ailing pension system and for two of Chicago's retirement systems are unconstitutional. A ruling by the Illinois Supreme Court on one of the laws could come as early as this spring.

S&P warned of a multi-notch downgrade if the city fails to come up with a sustainable plan this year to pay its escalating pension contributions.

In a report, Moody's noted that the downgrade to Baa2 moves the city closer to termination of 11 more swaps deals. Termination on those contracts would potentially cost Chicago an additional $133 million, Moody's noted.

Snake Oil and Swaps

When a snake oil salesman at the country fair says his potion will cure you of whatever ails you, you can rest assured the following three things will happen if you try some.

It will taste terrible.
It will not work.
You will wish you didn't buy it.

Similarly, when Wall Street peddles swaps, the following things are highly likely, if not virtually guaranteed.

The contracts will be extremely one-sided with many loopholes for the Street and none for the city.
The swaps will cost the city that enters them lots of money, and the termination fees will be excessive.
Cities will wish they never entered into the agreement.

Musical Tribute

As music fans might have expected, I have musical tribute to honor the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois. Although I like "My Kind of Town", I have a more appropriate offering in mind.

Link if video does not play: Paper Lace - The Night Chicago Died (Live)

Blue Ribbon Awarded

Illinois gets the blue ribbon for being the lowest-rated state. However, credit raters differ on Chicago.

Moody's rates Chicago at Baa2, two steps above junk.
S&P grades the city A+, the fifth-highest rank and four levels above Moody's.
Fitch Rates Chicago two steps higher than Moody's.

The S&P and Fitch have it wrong. Both will eventually catch up.

And if the pension crisis is not fixed (it won't be), Chicago and numerous other Illinois cities will all be junk rated.

In retrospect, I offer this thought "It's All Junk Now!". All that remains is for the credit rating agencies to catch on.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Austria "Bad Bank" Goes Bad, $8.5 Billion "Bail-In" Underway

Posted: 01 Mar 2015 05:09 PM PST

This entire notion that you can take bad assets from a bank and put them in a "bad bank" to make everything well, is ridiculous. Today we see yet another failure of the construct.

Reuters reports Austria Imposes Debt Moratorium on Heta "Bad Bank"

Austria's Financial Market Authority stepped in on Sunday to wind down "bad bank" Heta Asset Resolution and imposed a moratorium on debt repayments by the vehicle set up last year from the remnants of defunct lender Hypo Alpe Adria.

The step, allowed by new legislation that gives banking supervisors more power to intervene, followed an outside audit of Heta's balance sheet that exposed a capital hole of up to 7.6 billion euros ($8.51 billion) which the government was not prepared to fill, the FMA said.

The moratorium on repayment of principal and capital lasts until May 31, 2016, giving the FMA time to work out a detailed plan to ensure equal treatment of all creditors, the FMA said in a decree published on its website.

More than 9.8 billion euros worth of debt is affected, including senior notes worth 450 million due on March 6 and 500 million on March 20.

The finance ministry noted that creditors can be forced to contribute to the costs of winding down Heta - or "bailed in" - under new European legislation that Austria adopted this year so that taxpayers do not have to shoulder the entire burden.

Not Insolvent?!

In an absurd statement, the finance ministry added "Heta was not insolvent".

In summary: Repayments on Heta's bonds have been suspended, there is a capital shortfall of $8.5 billion, a bail-in is needed, and taxpayers do not have to share the "entire burden", but the bank is not insolvent.

And by the way, isn't separating out the "bad bank" supposed to make what's left of the "good bank", good? I ask because Heta is what's left of the "defunct" lender Hypo Alpe Adria.

It seems the good bank and the bad bank are now effectively defunct.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Australia's Mining Bust Turns Towns Into Ghost Towns; Expect Interest Rate "Shock and Awe"

Posted: 01 Mar 2015 12:37 PM PST

As Australia's mining boom turns to bust, Towns are Dying the Death of a Thousand Cuts as Miners Leave in Droves.

Locals say the main street of Dalby resembles a ghost town these days – a sad indication of a mining boom ending too soon for some.

Things have taken a turn for the worse since the glory days of the mining construction boom, with companies responding to falling commodity prices by pulling the plug on new projects and laying off workers across the Surat Basin.

The increasing exodus of workers, investment and money from the mining towns has left houses empty and businesses struggling, with many of those left behind wondering what to do next.

Di Reilly, owner of Mary's Commercial Hotel on Dalby's Cunningham St, said much had changed since 2013 when thirsty miners packed into the pub every Friday and Saturday night.

"We used to open the old bar up and the whole place would be chock-a-block," she said.

Things were going so well that Ms Reilly began a revamp of the pub before the numbers tapered off, leaving her with a half-renovated bar and plummeting income.

The old bar now sits unrenovated and empty, a dusty reminder of plans gone awry.

"They were saying it was going to last 10 years but it hasn't," she said.

"I was going to do the whole pub up, so I was banking on it that they would be here a little longer than they were, but it just stopped all of a sudden. It just got cut off."

The impact on her bottom line has been astonishing, with turnover last December down $100,000, slashed in half from the previous year.

Down the road, electronics retailer Colin Fountain speaks of the boom in the past tense.

"I've definitely noticed a slowdown. Sometimes when you look down the street you'd think you were in a ghost town," he said.

Further west in Chinchilla, the effects of the mining construction boom have mainly been felt in the real estate sector, where rents and house prices doubled from cashed-up workers arriving in the town.

Long-term residents said many pensioners had been forced to leave because of high housing prices and now that prices had fallen some weren't coming back.

One real estate agent said "a hell of a lot" of property was on the market – about 400 houses were for rent or sale and buyers were scarce.

Record Low Interest Rates

On February 3, and in response to tumbling oil and mineral prices, and irrational deflation worries, Australia Cut Interest Rates to Record Low.

Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 2.25% Tuesday, joining a procession of central banks that have eased policy settings this year in response to the deflationary impact of tumbling oil prices.

The 0.25-percentage-point cut represents a dramatic shift for the Reserve Bank of Australia—which ended 2014 with a message to financial markets that interest-rate stability was likely to feature again in 2015, to help underpin certainty for businesses and support the economy as a mining-investment boom fizzles out.

The Australian dollar fell sharply on the announcement of a cut, dropping to a fresh 5½-year low, while the stock market surged to the highest level since May 2008.

The Reserve Bank of Australia joins the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and the central banks of India, Denmark and Switzerland in either announcing substantial policy shifts or easing monetary settings—in some cases dramatically—since Jan. 1.

Throughout last year, Australia's central bank repeatedly stressed it would be appropriate for rates to remain stable for some time. It removed that reference on Tuesday, leaving open the door to more cuts.

In Tuesday's statement, Mr. Stevens said the jobless rate—currently 6.1%—would likely peak a little higher than had been anticipated.

Definitions Needed

I need a definition of "little" and also a definition what had been "anticipated".

The statement made by Stevens can literally mean anything. Most likely, little really means little. And given that central bankers are totally clueless, it's highly likely what had been anticipated was far too low.

Thus, vagueness aside, I will bet on the "over" line, "way over" in fact. With no recession in 23 years, and with wages and prices of goods dramatically out of line with the rest of the world, and with one of the world's biggest property bubbles, the upcoming recession in Australia will be a doozie.

Expect Interest Rate "Shock and Awe"

Australia has room for 9 quarter point cuts before zero is hit. But cuts won't happen that way. Accompanied by some sort of shock-and-awe statement, I expect Australia to cut rates 100 basis points or more at some point.

Addendum - "Houses and Holes" - Tweet from Steve Keen

Shortly after finishing the above, I heard from Steve Keen who emailed ...

"Good read mate--I've tweeted it. It's rather weird to watch my home country as an observer from England now. A colleague describes Australia's economic policies as 'Houses and Holes', and that about sums it up. Now all that's left is a property bubble and flogging our real estate to overseas borrowers--which coincidentally pretty much describes economic policy in the UK as well."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Sorry confusion

Sorry confusion

There are two kinds of, "I'm sorry."

The first kind is the apology of responsibility, of blame and of litigation. It is the four-year old saying to his brother, "I'm sorry I hit you in the face." And it is the apology of the surgeon who forgot to insert sterile dressings and almost killed you.

The other kind of sorry is an expression of humanity. It says, "I see you and I see your pain." This is the sorry we utter at a funeral, or when we hear that someone has stumbled.

You don't have to be in charge to say you're sorry. You don't even have to be responsible. All you need to do is care.

In this case, "I'm sorry," is precisely the opposite of, "I'm sorry you feel that way," which of course pushes the other person away, often forever.

As we've been busy commercializing, industrializing and lawyering the world, countless bureaucrats have forgotten what it means to be human, and have forgotten how much it means to us to hear someone say it, and mean it. "I'm sorry you missed your flight, and I can only imagine how screwed up the rest of your trip is going to be because of it."

"I see you," is what we crave.

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sâmbătă, 28 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

In Memory of Spock: Live Long and Prosper; Is He or Isn't He? Fish Tomatoes, Hand Transplants, Sci-Fi vs. Reality

Posted: 28 Feb 2015 06:20 PM PST

One of my favorite characters in TV history was Star Trek's "Spock". Yesterday, Leonard Nimoy, Spock of 'Star Trek,' Died at 83.

Leonard Nimoy, the sonorous, gaunt-faced actor who won a worshipful global following as Mr. Spock, the resolutely logical human-alien first officer of the Starship Enterprise in the television and movie juggernaut "Star Trek," died on Friday morning at his home in the Bel Air section of Los Angeles. He was 83.

His wife, Susan Bay Nimoy, confirmed his death, saying the cause was end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Mr. Nimoy announced last year that he had the disease, attributing it to years of smoking, a habit he had given up three decades earlier. He had been hospitalized earlier in the week.

His artistic pursuits — poetry, photography and music in addition to acting — ranged far beyond the United Federation of Planets, but it was as Mr. Spock that Mr. Nimoy became a folk hero, bringing to life one of the most indelible characters of the last half century: a cerebral, unflappable, pointy-eared Vulcan with a signature salute and blessing: "Live long and prosper" (from the Vulcan "Dif-tor heh smusma").

There's much more in the article. Inquiring minds may wish to take a look.

Is He or Isn't He?

Nimoy is author of two contradictory autobiographies:

"I Am Not Spock," published in 1977
"I Am Spock," published in 1995.

Vulcan Greeting

Nimoy Explains Origin of Vulcan Greeting

Link if video does not play: Leonard Nimoy Explains Origin of Vulcan Greeting.

In Memory of Leonard Nimoy

Science Friday has an interesting article Memory of Leonard Nimoy.

In an enclosed video in the above link, Nimoy talks with Ira Flatow, physics professor John Kramer, and science fiction writer Robert Sawyer about the relationship between science and science fiction.

Sci-Fi vs. Reality

The Science Friday video was from 1998. The video mentioned among other things, artificial hands and transplanting fish genes into tomatoes to make them more resistible to frost.

Artificial hands are here. Fish genes in tomatoes?

Let's investigate hand transplants and "fish tomatoes" in more detail.

Hand Transplants

Hand transplants are a success. The March 27 issue of BBC Future has the story of Rose Eveleth who says "I had a double hand transplant".

Rose considers the operation a success although it required much intensive therapy.

Genetically modified tomatoes were not a success to say the least. A couple of stories will explain.

Does Your Tomato Have Sole?

UC Santa Barbara asks Does Your Tomato Have Sole? If So, Is It Still a Veggie?

"Fish tomatoes," are transgenic tomatoes that have been genetically engineered with a gene from winter flounder, which are also known as lemon sole. Fish tomatoes have become an icon in the debate over Genetically Modified Foods, especially in relation to the perceived ethical dilemma of combining genes from different species.

Killer Tomatoes

The above article explains the intent. The following article will explain the success or failure of the experiment.

Please consider Throwing Biotech Lies at Tomatoes

Remember the pictures of the fish tomatoes? For years they were an unofficial emblem of the anti-GMO movement. They depicted how anti-freeze genes from an Arctic fish were forced into tomato DNA, allowing the plants to survive frost. Scientists really did create those Frankentomatoes, but they were never put on the market. (Breyers low-fat ice cream, however, does contain anti-freeze proteins from Arctic fish genes, but that's another story.)

The tomato that did make it to market was called the Flavr Savr, engineered for longer shelf life. Fortunately, it was removed from the shelves soon after it was introduced.

Although there are no longer any genetically modified (GM) tomatoes being sold today, the FDA's shady approval process of the Flavr Savr provides a lesson in food safety—or rather, the lack of it—as far as gene-spliced foods are concerned. We know what really went on during the FDA's voluntary review process of the Flavr Savr in 1993, because a lawsuit forced the release of 44,000 agency memos.

Bleeding stomachs

Calgene, the tomatoes' creator-in-chief (now a part of Monsanto), voluntarily conducted three 28-day rat feeding studies.

The rats that ate one of these Flavr Savr varieties probably wished they were in a different test group. Out of 20 female rats, 7 developed stomach lesions—bleeding stomachs. The rats eating the other Flavr Savr, or the natural tomatoes, or no tomatoes at all, had no lesions.

If we humans had such effects in our stomachs, according to Dr. Arpad Pusztai, a top GMO safety and animal feeding expert, it "could lead to life-endangering hemorrhage, particularly in the elderly who use aspirin to prevent thrombosis."

Oh yeah, some rats died

The team that had obtained the formerly secret FDA documents sent the full Flavr Savr studies to Dr. Pusztai for review and comment. While reading them, he happened across an endnote that apparently the FDA scientists either did not see or chose to ignore. The text nonchalantly indicated that 7 of the 40 rats fed the Flavr Savr tomato died within two weeks.

But the endnote summarily dismissed the cause of death as husbandry error, and no additional data or explanation was provided. The dead rats were simply replaced with new ones.

When I discussed this finding with Dr. Pusztai over the phone, he was beside himself. He told me emphatically that in proper studies, you never just dismiss the cause of death with an unsupported footnote. He said that the details of the post mortem analysis must be included in order to rule out possible causes or to raise questions for additional research. Furthermore, you simply never replace test animals once the research begins.

Questionable follow-up study

Calgene repeated the rat study. This time, one male rat from the non-GM group of 20, and two females from the GM-fed group of 15, showed stomach lesions. Calgene claimed success. They said that the necrosis (dead tissue) and erosions (inflammation and bleeding) were "incidental" and not tomato-related.

In reality, the new study was not actually a "repeat." They used tomatoes from a different batch and used a freeze-dried concentrate rather then the frozen concentrate used in the previous trial. Dr. Martineau explained to me that by freeze-drying, it allowed them to put more of the concentrated tomato into each rat.

In spite of the outstanding issues, the political appointees at the FDA concluded that the lesions were not related to the GM tomatoes. To be on the safe side, however, Calgene on its own chose not to commercialize the tomato line that was associated with the high rate of stomach lesions and deaths. The other line went onto supermarket shelves in 1994.

Faulty science rules the day

This was the very first GM food crop to be consumed in the US. It was arguably the most radical change in our food in all of human history. It was the product of an infant science that was prone to side-effects. Yet it was placed on the market without required labels, warnings, or post-marketing surveillance. One hopes that the FDA would have been exhaustive in their approval process, holding back approvals until all doubts were extinguished. But the agency was officially mandated with promoting biotechnology and bent over backwards to push GMOs onto the market. As a result, their evaluation was woefully inadequate.

Federal Death Agency

I was at a Casey conference last September and Doug Casey commented the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) ought to be reclassified as the Federal Death Agency.

Those articles help explain why.

I conclude "Live long and prosper" ... and don't eat "fish tomatoes".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Greece Negotiations Resume Again; "Constructive Ambiguity"; Schäuble Outmaneuvered!

Posted: 28 Feb 2015 03:00 PM PST

On Friday, the German Bundestag Backed the Greek Bailout Extension. Ahead of the vote, many commented that Greece collapsed.

It's not all that simple as I have explained.

The likely explanation for the alleged collapse of Syriza is Greece did not have a primary account surplus. Had it left now, it would have been forced off the euro, violating a campaign promise of Syriza.

Caving in required temporary caving in of other campaign promises.

Both Sides Got Something

The four-month extension gives Greece a better chance to prepare for default while allowing Greece to stay on the euro. The extension also give the ECB four more months to prepare for Grexit or default.

Properly analyzed, both sides got something. Isn't that what usually happens in complex negotiations?

Third Bailout Needed

Meanwhile, it's pretty clear that Greece needs yet another bailout.

I wrote about the bailout issues and the primary surplus issues on February 11 in Third Greek Bailout? Another €53.8 Billion Needed? Primary Account Surplus Revisited.

"Real" Negotiations Begin

Given that Greece does indeed need a third bailout, today's headline story should not be at all surprising: Greece Seeks Negotiations on ECB Bond Repayment.

Greece called into question on Saturday a major debt repayment it must make to the European Central Bank this summer, after acknowledging it faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors.

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Athens should negotiate with the ECB on 6.7 billion euros ($7.5 billion) in Greek government bonds held by the Frankfurt-based bank that mature in July and August.

Varoufakis did not say what he hoped to achieve in any talks, but he accused the ECB of making a mistake in buying the bonds around the time Greece had to take an EU/IMF bailout in 2010.

"Shouldn't we negotiate this? We will fight it," he said in an interview with Skai television. "If we had the money we would pay ... They know we don't have it."

With tax revenue falling far short of target last month and an economic recovery faltering, the state must repay an IMF loan of around 1.6 billion euros in March and find 800 million in interest payments in April. It then needs about 7.5 billion in July and August to repay the bonds held by the ECB and make other interest payments.

Varoufakis, who has staged a media blitz in recent days to sell the euro zone deal to the Greek people, singled out former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet for criticism.

"One part of the negotiations will be on what will happen to these bonds which unfortunately and wrongly Mr Trichet bought," he said. "I see it as a mistake - but the ECB did this with the aim of keeping us in the markets in 2010. They failed."

Varoufakis argued that if the bonds had remained in investors' hands, their value would have been cut by 90 percent under a restructuring of Greece's privately held debt in 2012, reducing the burden on the state.

The ECB bought the bonds at a deep discount and made large profits because their value rose as the euro zone debt crisis eased. Under Greece's second bailout deal, these profits were due to be returned to Athens to help it repay debt.

Athens received a partial payment in 2013 but euro zone countries are withholding a further 1.9 billion euros pending the review of Greece's economic plans. Varoufakis wants this money sent directly to the IMF to meet the March payment.

Curious Timing

Although the above headline and details are not surprising, the timing may appear somewhat curious. Even though the Bundestag signed off, the eurogroup as a whole has not ratified the extension.

Today's call for further negotiations ahead of that vote are sure to raise more than a few eyebrows.

Why now?

I have two possible game theory explanations

Varoufakis wants to quell Greek parliament sentiment that Syriza collapsed, and he feels the need to do that right away
Syriza really does not care if it is forced out of the eurozone as long as Greece can 100% without a doubt place the blame elsewhere

Advocates of position number two may argue that by caving into the demands and getting Germany to go along, it will not appear to anyone as if Syriza was responsible for Grexit, should the eurogroup parliament reject the extension.

Which is more reasonable?

As a fan of Occam's Razor (the rationale that requires the fewest assumptions is most often the correct explanation), I vote for number one.

Option 1 is self-explanatory. Option 2 requires a lie by Syriza (that it does not really want to stay on the euro), and a complex way to make that happen, absolving themselves of blame because the Greek population as a whole does want to keep the euro.

Constructive Ambiguity

As a result of the timing, I expect still more bickering accompanied by still more warnings. Nonetheless, the extension will be approved.

Also in support of theory number one is Intentional Vagueness.

Greece's finance minister says the country's agreement with its European creditors to extend its international loan agreement by four months was intentionally vague to ensure the European countries that need to have it ratified by their parliaments would be able to do so.

Greece was granted the extension by its European creditors last week in exchange for a commitment to budget reforms Varoufakis laid out in a document sent to Brussels. The list is a policy plan but does not contain specific measures or figures.

Varoufakis said that "we are very proud of the degree of ambiguity. And I use a term, constructive ambiguity."

Using Time Wisely

In the next four months, the real negotiations begin. Expect Syriza to announce it really did not cave in at all, because the document is purposely vague.

Let's revisit a couple of statement from my February 22 article Tspiras Claims to have "Won a Battle, Not the War"; Greece to Combat Tax Evasion; Illusion Shattered; Another Bailout?

"Once you get them into the safe space for the next four months, there'll be another set of discussions which will effectively involve the negotiation of a third program for Greece," said Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble rubbed Greek capitulation in Tsipras' face with his comment "The Greeks certainly will have a difficult time to explain the deal to their voters. As long as the programme isn't successfully completed, there will be no payout."

Schäuble Outmaneuvered

In retrospect, number two is rather amusing. How will Syriza explain this to the Greeks?

Like this: We got a four-month extension in return for vague promises at our discretion. Essentially we got the extension for free. Now we can negotiate payments to the ECB and IMF!

I suggest Schäuble was outmaneuvered by game theory book author Varoufakis. (See Mish's Game Theory Math)

If Syriza uses that time wisely, it can get back to a state of primary account surplus. And if it does, it will be in a far position to tell the much hated Troika where to go.

I still have odds of default (with or without Grexit), well over 50% by June. Which one depends on the state of primary account surplus in June when this extension ends.

All that happened in February was approval of four month extension giving both sides time to prepare for the inevitable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

My Favorite 5 Analytics Dashboards - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

My Favorite 5 Analytics Dashboards - Whiteboard Friday

Posted on: Friday 27 February 2015 — 01:15

Posted by Sixthman

Finding effective ways of organizing your analytics dashboards is quite a bit easier if you can get a sense for what has worked for others. To that end, in today's Whiteboard Friday the founder of Sixth Man Marketing, Ed Reese, shares his five favorite approaches.

UPDATE: At the request of several commenters, Ed has generously provided GA templates for these dashboards. Check out the links in his comment below!

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video transcription

Hi, I'm Ed Reese with Sixth Man Marketing and Local U. Welcome to this edition of Whiteboard Friday. Today we're going to talk about one of my favorite things in terms of Google Analytics -- the dashboard.

So think of your dashboard like the dashboard on your car -- what's important to you and what's important to your client. I have the new Tesla dashboard, you might recognize it. So, for my Tesla dashboard, I want navigation, tunes, calendar, everything and a bag of chips. You notice my hands are not on the wheel because it drives itself now. Awesome.

So, what's important? I have the top five dashboards that I like to share with my clients and create for them. These are the executive dashboards -- one for the CMO on the marketing side, new markets, content, and a tech check. You can actually create dashboards and make sure that everything is working.

These on the side are some of the few that I think people don't take a look at as often. It's my opinion that we have a lot of very generic dashboards, so I like to really dive in and see what we can learn so that your client can really start using them for their advantage.

#1 - Executives

Let's start with the executive dashboard. There is a lot of debate on whether or not to go from left to right or right to left. So in terms of outcome, behavior, and acquisition, Google Analytics gives you those areas. They don't mark them as these three categories, but I follow Avinash's language and the language that GA uses.

When you're talking to executives or CFOs, it's my personal opinion that executives always want to see the money first. So focus on financials, conversion rates, number of sales, number of leads. They don't want to go through the marketing first and then get to the numbers. Just give them what they want. On a dashboard, they're seeing that first.

So let's start with the result and then go back to behavior. Now, this is where a lot of people have very generic metrics -- pages viewed, generic bounce rate, very broad metrics. To really dive in, I like focusing and using the filters to go to specific areas on the site. So if it's a destination like a hotel, "Oh, are they viewing the pages that helped them get there? Are they looking at the directional information? Are they viewing discounts and sorts of packages?" Think of the behavior on those types of pages you want to measure, and then reverse engineer. That way you can tell they executive, "Hey, this hotel reservation viewed these packages, which came from these sources, campaigns, search, and social." Remember, you're building it so that they can view it for themselves and really take advantage and see, "Oh, that's working, and this campaign from this source had these behaviors that generated a reservation," in that example.

#2 - CMO

Now, let's look at it from a marketing perspective. You want to help make them look awesome. So I like to reverse it and start with the marketing side in terms of acquisition, then go to behavior on the website, and then end up with the same financials -- money, conversion rate percentages, number of leads, number of hotel rooms booked, etc. I like to get really, really focused.

So when you're building a dashboard for a CMO or anyone on the marketing side, talk to them about what metrics matter. What do they really want to learn? A lot of times you need to know their exact territory and really fine tune it in to figure out exactly what they want to find out.

Again, I'm a huge fan of filters. What behavior matters? So for example, one of our clients is Beardbrand. They sell beard oil and they support the Urban Beardsman. We know that their main markets are New York, Texas, California, and the Pacific Northwest. So we could have a very broad regional focus for acquisition, but we don't. We know where their audience lives, we know what type of behavior they like, and ultimately what type of behavior on the website influences purchases.

So really think from a marketing perspective, "How do we want to measure the acquisition to the behavior on the website and ultimately what does that create?"

These are pretty common, so I think most people are using a marketing and executive dashboard. Here are some that have really made a huge difference for clients of ours.

#3 - New markets

Love new market dashboards. Let's say, for example, you're a hotel chain and you normally have people visiting your site from Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Well, what happened in our case, we had that excluded, and we were looking at states broader -- Hawaii, Alaska, Colorado, Texas. Not normally people who would come to this particular hotel.

Well, we discovered in the dashboard -- and it was actually the client that discovered it -- that we suddenly had a 6000% increase in Hawaii. They called me and said, "Are we marketing to Hawaii?" I said no. They said, "Well, according to the dashboard, we've had 193 room nights in the past 2 months." Like, "Wow, 193 room nights from Hawaii, what happened?" So we started reverse engineering that, and we found out that Allegiant Airlines suddenly had a direct flight from Honolulu to Spokane, and the hotel in this case was two miles from the hotel. They could then do paid search campaigns in Hawaii. They can try to connect with Allegiant to co-op some advertising and some messaging. Boom. Would never have been discovered without that dashboard.

#4 - Top content

Another example, top content. Again, going back to Beardbrand, they have a site called the Urban Beardsman, and they publish a lot of content for help and videos and tutorials. To measure that content, it's really important, because they're putting a lot of work into educating their market and new people who are growing beards and using their product. They want to know, "Is it worth it?" They're hiring photographers, they're hiring writers, and we're able to see if people are reading the content they're providing, and then ultimately, we're focusing much more on their content on the behavior side and then figuring out what that outcome is.

A lot of people have content or viewing of the blog as part of an overall dashboard, let's say for your CMO. I'm a big fan of, in addition to having that ,also having a very specific content dashboard so you can see your top blogs. Whatever content you provide, I want you to always know what that's driving on your website.

#5 - Tech check

One of the things that I've never heard anyone talk about before, that we use all the time, is a tech check. So we want to see a setup so we can view mobile, tablet, desktop, browsers. What are your gaps? Where is your site possibly not being used to its fullest potential? Are there any issues with shopping carts? Where do they fall off on your website? Set up any possible tech that you can track. I'm a big fan of looking both on the mobile, tablet, any type of desktop, browsers especially to see where they're falling off. For a lot of our clients, we'll have two, three, or four different tech dashboards. Get them to the technical person on the client side so they can immediately see if there's an issue. If they've updated the website, but maybe they forgot to update a certain portion of it, they've got a technical issue, and the dashboard can help detect that.

So these are just a few. I'm a huge fan of dashboards. They're very powerful. But the big key is to make sure that not only you, but your client understands how to use them, and they use them on a regular basis.

I hope that's been very helpful. Again, I'm Ed Reese, and these are my top five dashboards. Thanks.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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Seth's Blog : If you want...

If you want...

If you want employees to go job hunting in order to leverage you into giving them a raise to keep them, then by all means, only give them a raise when they go job hunting.

If you want vendors to nickel and dime you for the last penny, then by all means, stretch out their payments and use them as a free source of cash.

If you want the home seller or the art dealer or the agent to put their goods up for auction to maximize the price you'll have to pay, then definitely punish those that don't have auctions by seeking to pay them as little as possible.

If you want internet companies to auction off your attention to the highest bidder, the best strategy is to only use services that don't charge you a fee.

If you want to be spammed, buy something from a telemarketer or an email pitch.

If you want gotchas, fine print and the hard sell, buy your car from someone who promises you the lowest price and then figures out how to make a profit some other way.

If you want customers to throw tantrums in order to get better service, my best advice is to only give a focused, urgent response to customers who throw tantrums.

Most of all, if you want customers to hear about you, make something worth talking about. And if you want customers who are loyal, act in a way that deserves loyalty.

• Email to a friend •

luni, 2 martie 2015

The history of the centroid

Seeing the centroid in action

Specialized content for the user-centroid

1. Single-location business

2. Multi-location business within a single city

3. Multiple businesses, multiple cities

4. Service area businesses (SABs)

Citations and reviews with the user centroid in mind

1. Single-location business

2. Multi-location business within a single city

3. Multiple businesses, multiple cities

4. SABs

Investigate your social-hyperlocal opportunties

Who are the people in your neighborhood?

duminică, 1 martie 2015

sâmbătă, 28 februarie 2015

Video transcription

#1 - Executives

#2 - CMO

#3 - New markets

#4 - Top content

#5 - Tech check

Pagini

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