Central Perk

luni, 9 martie 2015

Posted: 08 Mar 2015 11:49 PM PDT

I remain amused at skepticism towards driverless cars and trucks. Most believe the idea is at least a decade off. Some think it will not happen in a significant way at all.

My position has been and remains, driverless vehicles will be widespread before the end of this decade.

Please consider Self-Driving Cars Will Be in 30 U.S. Cities by the End of Next Year.

Automated vehicle pilot projects will roll out in the U.K. and in six to 10 U.S. cities this year, with the first unveiling projected to be in Tampa, Fla. as soon as late spring. The following year, trial programs will launch in 12 to 20 more U.S. locations, which means driverless cars will be on roads in up to 30 U.S. cities by the end of 2016. The trials will be run by Comet LLC, a consulting firm focused on automated vehicle commercialization.

"We're looking at college campuses, theme parks, airports, downtown areas—places like that," Corey Clothier, a strategist for automated transportation systems who runs the firm told, The New York Observer.

He explained that they're focusing on semi-controlled areas and that the driverless vehicles will serve a number of different purposes, both public and private. The vehicles themselves, which are all developed by Veeo Systems, will even vary from two-seaters to full-size buses that can transport 70 people. At some locations, the vehicles will drive on their own paths, occasionally crossing vehicle and pedestrian traffic, while at others, the vehicles will be completely integrated with existing cars.

Death of Cars?

If you think this will stop with college campuses, theme parks, and airports, then you probably believed the need for keypunch operators would not go away, that autofocus cameras would never be reliable, that the internet would not make mincemeat out of many travel agencies, and digital would not replace film.

I would not go as far as to say this is the death of cars. Rather, this is the beginning of the end of personal car ownership for millions of city drivers.

But, it is also the eventual (and sooner than you think) death of long-haul trucking jobs, taxi drivers, and various chauffeur jobs.

Question of Timeframe

I have heard countless arguments many times over about lawsuits, about inner-city traffic jams, about ice and snow, about computer malfunctions, about road work and changing rood conditions, and about everything else including motherhood and apple pie.

I dismiss all those arguments just as I dismissed arguments that digital would not replace film. The only debate is how fast this happens.

Programmed cars can handle adverse road conditions better than all but the most skilled drivers, and certainly far better than those not used to driving in snow and ice. Liability issues will likely be settled by legislation in advance. An internet connected car can certainly pick alternate routes better than non-connected humans.

In 2006, had I said we would have driverless cars on the highways in 10 years in thirty cities you might have thought I was crazy. Well here we are. It's just test-mode now, but test mode will not last long. The pace of improvement is guaranteed to happen in one direction only - faster.

Will test to approval take more than 10 years? Five? Three? Will trucks and cabs lead, or follow?

Comfortable Predictions

I believe most long haul truck driving jobs will vanish in ten years. Gone in five or six would not surprise me. The shorter timeframe would require a pretty fast ramp in truck hubs, assuming my truck hub model is the correct one, and it may not be. If the truck hubs I envision as necessary are not needed, then expect the jobs to vanish faster.

Taxi drivers? Who need em? They will be gone in 5-6 years, in many places.

Cost vs. Convenience

I will cling to my car. And so will millions of others, at first. That's why the death of cars will not happen as fast as the death of paid driver positions.

Yet, millions of aging boomers with diminishing eyesight, slower reaction times, and poor night vision will welcome driverless taxis on demand. So will millenials and many inner-city drivers who never leave the city.

The cost of a car is high. But the convenience of having a car outweighs that cost for now, for most.

Ultimately it is convenience of having a car in your garage vs. the cost of having that car that will decide how quickly private car ownership goes away.

Convenience is also a two-way street. How many moms would love the convenience of not having to take their kids to and from soccer games or music lessons several times a week?

Pent-Up Demand to Dump Cars

Cars will be around for quite a long time. It's ownership of the cars, and how many there are, and who will drive them (if anyone), that are in question.

Economists see a pent-up demand for millennials to buy cars. I see a pent-up demand for boomers to get rid of them. Demographics, technology, and changing social attitudes suggest I am on the right side of this debate.

For more on driverless vehicles, please see ....

The heyday of car ownership is in its twilight years. The paid driving jobs will vanish much sooner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Warmongers United: Juncker Requests Creation of EU Army; Peace by War

Posted: 08 Mar 2015 04:54 PM PDT

Warmongers United

European discussion of Russia has gone from dumb to dumber.

Of course, the highly regarded "Warmongers United Think Tank" (WUTT) would dispute that. "Warmongers United" believes more armies, more missiles and more fighting are precisely the right thing to do.

What? Haven't heard of WUTT?

The think tank consists of a various collection of folks itching for a war with Russia, Iran, and Syria, preferably all at once. True believers want to include China in that group.

In general, WUTT wants to set the world right (just as they insisted a war with Iraq, Vietnam and other places would set the world right).

John McCain is the official spokesman for Warmongers United in the US. Jean-Claude Juncker assumed that role today for Europe. Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush both hope to assume global leadership in 2016.

Juncker Requests Creation of EU Army

Please consider Jean-Claude Juncker Calls for Creation of EU Army.

The president of the European Commission has called for the creation of an EU army in order to show Russia "that we are serious about defending European values".

In an interview with German newspaper Die Welt, Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the EU's executive arm, said an EU army would let the continent "react credibly to threats to peace in a member state or a neighbour of the EU".

In an interview with German radio on Sunday, Ursula von der Leyen, Germany's defence minister, also spoke in favour of a European army, pointing out that a brigade of Dutch soldiers was already under German command.

"I think that in the Bundeswehr we would also be prepared, in certain circumstances, to put units under the control of another nation," she told Deutschlandfunk. "This interweaving of armies, with the perspective of one day having a European Army, is, in my opinion, the future."

Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of Luxembourg, whose army consists of 900 professional soldiers, has long argued for the establishment of an EU force, making it part of his foreign policy plan during the selection process for the presidency of the commission in 2014. British prime minister David Cameron argued against his appointment, claiming that Mr Juncker was too much of a federalist for the position.

Mr Cameron has repeatedly reassured eurosceptic MPs in his own party that Britain would "never support" any form of EU army. Responding to Mr Juncker's comments on Sunday, a government spokeswoman said: "Our position is crystal clear that defence is a national, not an EU responsibility and that there is no prospect of that position changing and no prospect of a European army."

Some MEPs defended the idea, arguing that such an army should be controlled by the European Parliament.

"I support Juncker in building an EU army if it means the termination of all EU member states' armies and is controlled by the European Parliament," tweeted Jan Philipp Albrecht, a German Green MEP.

But eurosceptic parties criticised the suggestion. Mike Hookem, a defence spokesman for the anti-EU UK Independence party, said: "A European army would be a tragedy for the UK. We have all seen the utter mess the EU has made of the eurozone economy, so how can we even think of trusting them with this island's defence."

Nato was not a sufficient protection for the EU as not all EU members are part of the alliance, according to Mr Juncker.

Defend Values by Warmongering

There is nothing better than warmongering to defend "European values". After all, war is the European way!

NATO Insufficient

If NATO is insufficient, how about a call to disband it?

The answer is less warmongering is never acceptable.

We need US forces, coupled with NATO forces, coupled with regional forces, coupled with European national forces, and coupled with other national forces in Asia, primarily Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

There can never be too many military alliances. Thus, when it comes to Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, the world needs a JANZ alliance, an NZA alliance, a JA alliance, and a JNZ alliance. The more the better.

Of course, each alliance group needs its own set of tanks, missiles, guns and troops.

Need for Enemies

If there are no hostile countries in an alliance area, then its axiomatic to invent some or create some. Let's not forget the need to hold parades right on the borders of hostile countries, even peaceful countries.

History suggests that making new enemies is quite easy.

Still struggling? Note that Japan is a fantastic addition to any alliance because of its long-standing feud with China. Forge an alliance with Japan and you have the built-in (and very welcome) enemy of China.

War Pays for Itself

The only possible concern right now is how to pay for this. Such concerns are ridiculous. Printing money is the easy answer.

We need to take advantage of this fine opportunity for more war while we can!

Of course every sensible person on the planet realizes that war pays for itself. Iraq, Vietnam, Ukraine, and Afghanistan are perfect examples.

Growth Prospects

War is the one global growth industry that remains.

A simultaneous war with Iran, Iraq, China, and Russia is just what the world needs for growth.

Want jobs? Then join Warmongers United today! Demand more wars. Insist on the real thing, not simulations.

Peace by War

Previous US foreign policy "successes" in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Vietnam and other places without a doubt shows that more warmongering is the only way to peace. "Slight failures" in some places only proves one thing: We did not wage enough war!

Should Russia retaliate with nuclear weapons, fear not. We can blow them up 10 times over while they can only blow us up 3 times over.

Besides, it's self-evident that either nuclear war or perpetual war is a "small price to pay" to achieve global peace. Curiously, the only way to achieve permanent peace is to have permanent war.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

70s Have Returned

Posted: 08 Mar 2015 03:17 PM PDT

Contrary to popular belief the 1970s have returned. I can prove that statement in pictures.

First, let's take a look at a few ways the 70s have not returned.

10-Year Treasury Rate

In the mid-70s the 10-year treasury rate was 8.4% on the way to 15.32% in September of 1981. Today, we see a very un-70s-like rate of 2.24%.

CPI All Urban Consumers - Change from Year Ago

CPI All Urban Consumers - Percent Change from Year Ago

We did not see much CPI action that looked like this in the 1970s. Please note both of the above CPI measures are negative compared to a year ago.

Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing employment was close to 19 million in late 1973 and early 1974. It peaked near 20 million in 1979. Manufacturing employment is now about 12.3 million.

Nothing Like the 70s

Closer scrutiny shows none of the following is anything like the 70s.

Price trends
Employment
Interest rates
Union membership
Number of pension plans in trouble
Number of city bankruptcies
Robots
Phone usage
Internet
Demographics

70s Return

I did find one set of images however, taken yesterday, that are very 70s-like.

Liz and Mish

Heidi

Heidi is a karaoke host at two local places we frequent: The T-Bar on Roberts Road in Island Lake on Saturdays and the Riverside Pub on IL-176 in Burtons Bridge on Friday.

Heidi sponsored a 70s only songfest last Friday. Thought I would share some 70s flashback silliness taken with someone's cell phone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

duminică, 8 martie 2015

Seth's Blog : Job creation/job destruction

Job creation/job destruction

For years before 1992, experts warned that the fisheries in Eastern Canada were in peril. Industrialized fishing processes (sonar, trawlers, etc.) were pulling dramatically more cod out of the Atlantic, and the fishery was severely threatened.

Insiders ignored the warnings, shouting about job preservation instead. 35,000 workers were directly involved, with more than 100,000 people supported as a result to the fishing trade. Jobs needed to be defended.

In 1992, the catch dropped 99%. Every single job was lost, because the entire system collapsed.

It's easy to defend the status quo, except when the very foundation you've built everything on disappears. Incrementalism ceases to be a good strategy when there's a cliff on the route.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 7 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Advice for College Grads: 16 Tips For Those Who Land a Job, 8 Tips for Those Who Don't

Posted: 07 Mar 2015 04:14 PM PST

I was asked by a career placement organization if I had any advice for college graduates that I could share.

Specifically, I was asked "If you were going to give career advice to a fresh college graduate based on your experiences what would it be? Would it be to settle for nothing less than something they are passionate about? Would you tell them to not put too much stock into their first job? Would you tell them to put as much money into their savings as possible?"

I look at this two ways: Advice for those who landed a job and advice for those who didn't.

Grads who land a job should also take a look at the second set of tips. It's easy to find yourself out of a job for any number of reasons.

16 Tips For Those Who Land a Job

Live below your means.
Pay down student debts as fast as you can.
Build a cash cushion in case you lose your job. Ideally, you need one full year's salary, in the bank, in cash, for emergencies, not for trips to Aruba. Six months is a minimum.
Think about bills before you move out on your own.
Consider sharing an apartment with someone to cut expenses.
Consider living with your parents for a while.
Don't buy a new car.
If you buy any car, make sure you understand what insurance, gas, and maintenance will cost
Don't have kids right away, if at all. If you have kids, then understand the commitment in time and money, and be prepared for both. If you have kids, that cash cushion mentioned in point three is even more important.
Don't purchase a house or condo even if your job pays well. Housing is back in a bubble in many areas. Condos are especially hard to sell. Besides, you may decide you do not like your first job and want to move. Take your time. It's easier to find a house you like than get rid of one you don't.
If your job has a company matching investment plan, take advantage, but keep the money in cash or guaranteed funds if offered. Assets are way over-priced here. Wait for a huge dip in the stock market to invest. Recent grads have plenty enough time to dollar cost average. Early mistakes will not cost much. However, it's important to think about valuations, safety, bubbles and other factors as a process now rather than taking the attitude it doesn't matter much now. It will matter eventually, and the quicker one starts thinking about such things, the better off they will be down the road.
Don't think you are special because you show up on time and put in eight hours. Those are a given. Depending on the company you work for, work-life balance may come later or perhaps not all. Few companies are remotely close to Google. Go above and beyond what's expected, every day, without complaint. A strong work ethic is one of the few ways one can stand out and get promotions and raises.
If you took a job you are not passionate about, be grateful you have a job. Keep looking, but don't quit. It's easier to find a job if you have a job.
If you are with a big company and don't like your initial assignment, opportunities can arise in other areas. Talk to personnel after you have been there a while. Give your first assignment a fair chance.
Evaluate your job four ways: Do you like what you are doing? Do you like who you work with? Do you like your boss? Are you happy with your pay?
If the answer to all four questions in point 13 are no, you are in the wrong place for sure. Sometimes one can be so bad you want out. If pay alone is the problem, then please self-assess your skills and what others in your field make. If your boss alone is the problem then talk to your boss or bring up the problem with personnel.

8 Tips For Those Who Don't Land a Job

Purchasing new cars, buying houses or condos, or starting a family are out of the question unless somehow you are independently wealthy or have a spouse that picks up the slack.
Don't go to grad school thinking it will help you land a good job. Most likely, and especially if you are in a low demand field, all you will do is pile on debt.
Be realistic about your job prospects. If you got a degree in history, art, English literature or any other low demand field, face the facts: your job prospects are not that good. You may have to take any job in retail (or elsewhere) that you can find. You may be passionate about art, but don't expect museums to come running to you.
Have a friend interview you and give you honest feedback. If your speech skills are not good, then you better improve them.
Have someone critique your resume. Don't ever lie about your skills, grades, experience, or anything else. The interviewer may figure it out. And if you are hired, it's grounds for immediate dismissal, even if they like you. I have seen it.
What about your appearance? Do you dress properly for interviews?
When you land an interview, find out everything you can about the company. It is imperative to not only understand what the company does, but to also formulate at least one intelligent question about their business that you don't know. Examples: Have you thought about ....? Why do you ....? Why don't you ...? What areas do you seek to expand?
Self-assess. Do you have other issues? Employers are not supposed to take looks and health issues into consideration, but if you are extremely obese, your odds of landing a job are much worse than if you are physically fit.

Good Luck Grads!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rush to Judgment Part II: Media Myths Shattered; Whodunit? Four Arrested

Posted: 07 Mar 2015 12:35 PM PST

Whodunit?

It appears my post yesterday challenging conventional wisdom of "whodunit" was fortuitously timed. (See Rush to Judgment and Extremely Inaccurate Reporting). No doubt the anti-Putin conspiracy crowd will start suspecting I was in on it all along.

Please consider Two Suspects Held Over Murder of Kremlin Critic Nemtsov.

Two suspects have been detained over the killing of Boris Nemtsov, Russian officials said, a week after he was shot dead near the Kremlin in the most high-profile killing of an opposition figure in years.

The Investigative Committee, the state body leading the investigation, named the two men as Anzor Gubashev and Zaur Dadayev.

"The individuals detained are, according to our investigation, involved in the organization and execution of the killing of Boris Nemtsov," the committee said in a statement.

Russian state-controlled media reported the two were from the Caucasus, a violent and impoverished region on Russia's southern flank. They were expected to be formally arrested at a court hearing in Moscow on Sunday, the reports said.

"I want to believe that these ones are really the ones who conducted (the killing) and that once in a while law enforcement worked professionally and detained real assassins, and did not make a mistake," Ilya Yashin, the co-chairman of Nemtsov's party, said of the two suspects.

"The key task for investigators is to find and prosecute the ones who ordered this murder. If everything ends with the detention of scapegoats, irrespective of whether they are the real assassins or not, the practice of political assassinations will continue with no doubt."

Yashin and other associates of Nemtsov said that until Saturday they had never heard of the two men detained.

Nemtsov was a liberal who had served as deputy prime minister in the 1990s and later became a staunch critic of Putin. He was shot within sight of the Kremlin walls as he walked home from a cafe.

It was the most high-profile killing of an opposition figure in Putin's 15-year rule.

The killing caused shock among Russia's liberal opposition, but they draw their support only from the relatively small urban middle class. The vast majority of Russians back Putin. For them, Nemtsov was a marginal figure tainted by his role in government in the chaotic 1990s.

SCRIBBLED NOTE

Nemtsov's closest aide told Reuters that the day before his death he clandestinely scribbled a note to her about how he was investigating the involvement of Russia's military in fighting in east Ukraine.

No one has produced any direct evidence the Kremlin had anything to do with Nemtsov's killing.

People from the Caucasus have been named as suspects in other assassinations, including those of Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist critical of the Kremlin, in 2006 and of Paul Klebnikov, a U.S. citizen and journalist with the Russian edition of Forbes magazine, in 2004.

Politkovskaya's supporters say the Chechens sentenced for her killing were low-level foot soldiers, and that investigators failed to find out who was behind her murder.

Four Arrested

Although two were the trigger-men, four have now been arrested. KP.RU reports Two More Arrested. Details are scant.

Media Myths Shattered

Media Myth: Nemtsov was a well-liked, high-profile opposition leader.
Reality: The vast majority of Russians back Putin.

Media Myth: Putin had everything to gain by killing Nemtsov.
Reality: Nemtsov was a marginal figure tainted by his role in government in the chaotic 1990s. He was no threat to Putin. Indeed, Putin had everything to lose and nothing to gain by making a martyr out of Nemtsov.

Media Myth: (as originally reported). Putin shut off video cameras, and that makes Putin a prime suspect.
Reality: Cameras were operative and that helped track the killers.

Media Myth: Nemtsov's closest aide told Reuters that the day before his death he clandestinely scribbled a note to her about how he was investigating the involvement of Russia's military in fighting in east Ukraine.
Reality: Perhaps he scribbled a note. Who knows? More importantly, so what? Why Reuters made a big issue in with an all capitalized subtitle is a mystery. It is well understood that Nemtsov sided with Kiev in the Ukraine civil war. The reality is that Nemtsov's position on the war marginalized him and his party.

Conspiracy Theory Number One

The Putin haters will believe this was all some massive, extremely well planned conspiracy in which the police were purposely late to investigate, that Putin ordered the hit because he needed to get rid of Nemtsov because Nemtsov had some huge news on the war in Ukraine.

Conspiracy Theory Number Two

Ukraine, in hyperinflation, having just lost many key battles in the Ukraine civil war, whose government came into power in suspicious means with no one arrested for the sniper attacks that started it all, is behind this mess, needing sympathy from the IMF and weapons from the US.

Conspiracy Theory Number Three

The CIA wants to destabilize Russia and paid for the hit.

Simple Theory One

Someone in Russia or Ukraine wanted to make a martyr out of Nemtsov.

Simple Theory Two

Men from a region of Russia known for taking out prominent political figures had some other grudge against Nemtsov

Assessing the Possibilities

The anti-Putin crowd will cling to conspiracy theory one, and the anti-US crowd to theory conspiracy number three.

I will be the first to admit any of the above five theories is possible. Degree of likelihood is in the eyes of the beholder, but Occam's Razor suggests simple theories over more complex ones.

Regardless, once again I conclude there is no need to rush to judgment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : The narcissism of minor differences

The narcissism of minor differences

Really?

You're arguing about that trivial difference between us?

Substantive disagreement is rarely the issue that splits tribes, destroys thriving groups or wastes time at meetings. Instead, it's our desire to carve out a little space for ourselves in a group that seems to agree on almost everything.

The work is too important to sidetrack about the things we disagree on.

Point out this narcissism when you see it and move on to the important stuff, to amplifying the things we agree on.

[HT to Ernest Crawley who has one of the coolest resumes ever. And then appropriated by Freud.]

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 6 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Rush to Judgment and Extremely Inaccurate Reporting
Trends in Employment: What Age Groups Get the Jobs?
Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K
No, No, No Says Draghi to Greece; Spanish Economy Minister Insists 3rd Bailout Talks Underway

Rush to Judgment and Extremely Inaccurate Reporting

Posted: 06 Mar 2015 07:35 PM PST

Rush to Judgment

The moment Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down last Friday, Western media rushed to judgment. Heck, even friends who should know better rushed to judgment.

One friend sent me the New York Times article After Boris Nemtsov's Assassination, 'There Are No Longer Any Limits' along with this comment:

"The world cannot stand by and let the formula of repression and stealth special forces intervention and sowing contrived disruption succeed, as next there will be little green men in the Baltic states sowing dissention -- we are not going to go through a rinse, repeat and shampoo cycle again in those countries."

I replied...

The headline is ridiculous because

No one knows who did it.
It's none of our business anyway
If we have any moral responsibility it should not be to corrupt puppet governments, but rather the people of Ukraine
The people of Ukraine do not need 4 more years of war nor a mass US invasion
The people of the US do not need and cannot afford a war with Russia

To which I heard "Of course you think the US did it. That was predictable. One does not need to think too hard to figure out what happened here. There is a clear pattern. Europe and the liberal world order are too precious. This has to stop now."

If that's not rush to judgment, what is?

Numerous Possibilities

It would not surprise me in the least to find out the US or Ukraine had some involvement in this. Given disastrous US foreign policy everywhere, including involvement in the Ukraine Maidan uprising, how anyone can be sure of anything is beyond me.

I am not saying "Putin did not do it." Rather I am saying "I don't know".

I do know that Nemtsov could be considered washed out. Russians dropped him and his party in droves when he supported Ukraine in the Ukrainian civil war. I also know his mistress was Ukrainian and Nemtsov flew her to Switzerland to have an abortion.

There are any number of possibilities here, including the strong possibility that making Nemtsov a martyr made him worth more alive than dead to Putin, and more dead than alive to the anti-Putin movement.

Could Nemtsov have been setup by his mistress? The only "no" answer I can come up with is along the lines of "dead women tell no tales". Why would someone leave her as a witness except by accident?

Extremely Inaccurate Reporting

With rush to judgment out of the way, let's turn our focus on some extremely inaccurate headlines.

For example, Yahoo!Finance reported on February 28, Nemtsov Admitted Fears for Life Weeks Before Murder.

The headline, the body of the article, and the actual interview do not match.

From Yahoo!Finance

Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, gunned down on Friday in a contract-style killing, gave an interview this month admitting he had feared for his life over his opposition to President Vladimir Putin.

In an interview with weekly Sobesednik, Nemtsov was asked: "Have you started worrying that Putin could personally kill you in the near future or do it through middle men?"

He replied: "You know... yes. A little.

"But all the same I'm not that scared of him. If I was that afraid, I would hardly have headed an opposition party and would hardly be doing what I'm doing now," he said in the interview published in early February.

In a light-hearted exchange, the Sobesdenik journalist told Nemtsov: "I hope that common sense will prevail after all and Putin won't kill you."

"God willing. I hope so too," Nemtsov replied.

Actual Interview

The actual interview went nothing like the above.

Nemtsov never admitted fear of being killed. Rather he commented his mother (not he) feared for his life.

That link is to the full interview in Russian. Run it through any translator you want. What follows is my edited Yandex translation.

Nemtsov: When I called her regularly, she says, "Son, when will you stop criticizing Putin? He'll kill you" (Nemtsov laughs).

Reporter: Finally, I will ask you, are you afraid of Putin? More cautious?

Nemtsov: Slightly afraid. [See my note below for a more accurate translation]

Reporter: But a little fear, yes?

Nemtsov: "Well listen, I'm kidding. If I was afraid, I would hardly have headed an opposition party and would hardly be doing what I'm doing now."

Not Really Afraid

Note: Reader Jacon Dreizin informs me, that "slightly afraid" better translates as "not really". The context and the reporter's followup question both indicate "not really" is a better translation.

Nowhere was a question asked "Have you started worrying that Putin could personally kill you in the near future or do it through middle men?"

Reader Andrei Chimes In

I also pinged this post off reader Andrei who speaks Russian and graciously offered help with Russian translations. He confirms what Jacob had to say.

Reader Andrei went on ...

Nemtsov says he is "afraid a little bit" or "not really afraid". In Russian both are quite close to each other. But then he follows up with "if I was afraid I would not be leading the opposition" etc.

The actual question from interviewer should have been translated as "And the last question I want to ask you - are you afraid of Putin? Or are you going to be more careful now?" To which Nemtsov replies that if he was afraid he would not be doing what he does.

Nowhere in interview there is a line from the reporter about "let's hope Putin won't kill you" neither Boris reply about god willing. The whole interview is about his relationship with his mom with some small bits about how she does not like Putin.

Hope this helps. Let me know if you need any further elaboration.

Cheers, Andrei

The critical question was made up by someone. So was the answer. So was the exchange about "God willing". Or, if you prefer, the posted interview is a lie.

Which is it?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Trends in Employment: What Age Groups Get the Jobs?

Posted: 06 Mar 2015 11:15 AM PST

One interesting fact in today's jobs report (see Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K) was a drop in teenage unemployment of 1.7 percentage points while overall the unemployment rate fell by only 0.2 percentage points.

The only reason the overall rate fell was a plunge in labor force of 178,000. Household survey employment only rose by 96,000 vs. the establishment survey gain of an alleged +295,000.

The decline in teenage unemployment got me wondering: Where are the jobs, and what age groups got them? Here are a few seasonally adjusted charts from the St. Louis Fed.

Employment 16-19 Month Over Month

Employment 20-24 Month Over Month

Employment 25-54 Month Over Month

Employment 55+ Month Over Month

Age Categories

25-54 is a rather broad category. So is 55+. I would have liked to see finer breakdowns.

Additional data is available on the BLS data site directly, but even there, not all of the seasonally adjusted numbers I wanted were available. However, all of the age groups I wanted to see on a "not seasonally adjusted" basis were available.

Let's take a look at the two sets of tables I created from BLS data.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Employment Growth Year-Over-Year

Age Group	Employment Growth Y/Y NSA	Population Growth Y/Y	Employment Relative to Population Growth
16-19	456,000	-34,000	490,000
20-24	409,000	-26,000	435,000
25-34	866,000	617,000	249,000
35-44	69,000	108,000	-39,000
45-54	464,000	-207,000	671,000
55-59	175,000	279,000	-104,000
60-64	296,000	543,000	-247,000
65+	228,000	1,534,000	-1,306,000

Note the huge outsized job gains in age groups 16-19 and 20-24. On an age-adjusted basis, the job gains are even greater.

Also the demographic shift to age group 25-34 puts the 866,000 job gain in that group in proper perspective. Relative to population growth, age group 35-44 actually lost jobs.

Retirement explains age groups 60-64 and 65+. Retirement (and forced retirement), along with rising disability fraud, also explains the drop in participation rate.

By forced retirement I mean people who want a job but do not have one, so they retire to collect Social Security because they need the income.

Seasonally Adjusted Employment Growth Month-Over-Month

Age Group	Employment Growth M/M SA	Population Growth M/M
16-19	86,000	-6,000
20-24	103,000	-20,000
25-34	108,000	37,000
35-44	-86,000	2,000
45-54	78,000	-55,000
55+	-187,000	-6,000

Perspective on the 96K Household Survey Gain

Of the 96,000 gain in employment this month, 189,000 of it came in the age group 16-24 even though that population group dropped by 26,000!

Please stop and think about that for a second.

Yes, retirement affected the overall results, but even so, age group 35-44 lost 86,000 jobs. Overall it seems reasonably safe to assume more high-paying jobs were lost this month than gained.

Still think this was a good jobs report?

Close scrutiny of both month-over-month and year-over-year data suggests we keep adding low wage jobs while boomers retire en masse.

These job reports are nowhere near as strong as most think.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K

Posted: 06 Mar 2015 08:51 AM PST

Initial Reaction

Once again we see the pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey. The latter varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?

Here is one stat that really stands out: The unemployment rate for teenagers 16-19 fell 1.7 percentage points. BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +295,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: +96,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: -274,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: -175,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: +15,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 5.5% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 11.0% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +176,000
Civilian Labor Force: -178,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +354,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.8 - Household Survey

January 2015 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, construction, health care, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in mining was down over the month.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment January 2011 - February 2015

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees was stationary at 34.6 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers was flat at $20.80. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees was flat at $20.61.

Since November, Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.03, from $20.77 to $20.80 (about a penny a month).

Since November, average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees rose $0.04 from $20.57 to $20.61 (about 2 cents a month).

From this perspective, wages are rising about 1% a year.

For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 5.5%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 11.0%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.

For further discussion of a more accurate measure of the unemployment rate, please see Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

No, No, No Says Draghi to Greece; Spanish Economy Minister Insists 3rd Bailout Talks Underway

Posted: 06 Mar 2015 08:05 AM PST

Spanish Economy Minister Insists 3rd Bailout Talks Underway

Spanish economy minister, Luis de Guindos, has reiterated his position that Third Greece Bailout discussions are in play.

Luis de Guindos put back on the table the possibility that the Troika is preparing a new bailout for Greece. "The four month extension of the aid program will show us the real situation and establish the need for a third rescue," he assured an information forum. "Next week, the Eurogroup meeting will hopefully expose the discussions that have occurred," he added.

Jean-Claude Juncker denied this week that it was negotiating a third bailout for Greece, but it's the second time that the economy minister made statements in this regard. In particular he spoke of a package of between 30 and 50 billion euros of which Spain would guarantee between 13% and 14%. Our country has already contributed 26 billion euros in respect of guarantees and loans for the Greek economy.

Whom to Believe?

Once again this is a question of whom to believe.

I don't know for the simple reason that no one involved merits the benefit of the doubt.

I discussed this issue at length in Greecification of Spanish Politics and the Lies of Spain's Ministers.

The actual amount of Spain's loan to Greece is €6.65 billion. Everything beyond that is a loan guarantee, not current paid out of pocket. The guarantee is real, but it's not spent money ... yet.

See the preceding link for discussion.

No, No, No Says Draghi to Greece

Keep Talking Greece has anther interesting post today: Varoufakis says "We have Plan B" after ECB Draghi's says No,No,No to liquidity.

"We have Plan B" Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told private Mega TV on Thursday, just a couple of hours after ECB head Mario Draghi linked ECD funding with Greece's compliance to the bailout and austerity program, righting the conditions for liquidity.

At a press conference today, Mario Draghi distributed money around, but to the Greek, he said three times "No".

NO, ECB will not allow Athens to sell additional T-bills total worth 8 billion euro.

NO, ECB will not buy Greek bonds under its new assets-buying program.

NO, ECB will not accept Greek bonds as collateral.

"The ECB is a rule-based institution. It is not a political institution. It cannot provide monetary financing to governments, either directly or indirectly. We cannot give money to banks to fund governments," Draghi said.

Odd, that he did not add that he had no problem to fund banks and put the burden on taxpayers around Europe, when it comes to fund the oh-so-dear banks.

P.S. No, Varoufakis did not elaborate on the Greek Plan B.

Musical Tribute

I believe I see four distinct no's in the above article, and I have the perfect musical tribute.

Link if video does not play: Ringo Starr - The No-No Song

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com