miercuri, 18 martie 2015

Han Fan: "Buzz Ignition - Han Fan's EXCLUSIVE Interview With Neil Napier - Ha..." and more videos

Han Fan: "Buzz Ignition - Han Fan's EXCLUSIVE Interview With Neil Napier - Ha..." and more videos

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Seth's Blog : Spring forward

Spring forward

Sometimes, it takes some prodding to make a leap.

For the next 48 hours (through Friday, March 20), the five-copy pack of my new book is on sale.

Use the discount code spring to save 40% off the discounted price, and get the books for about $8 each plus shipping.

       

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In-App Social & Contact Data - New in Open Site Explorer - Moz Blog


In-App Social & Contact Data - New in Open Site Explorer

Posted on: Tuesday 17 March 2015 — 13:00

Posted by randfish

Today I'm excited to announce the launch of a new feature inside  Open Site Explorer—In-App Social & Contact Data. 


With this launch, you'll be able to see the social or email accounts we've discovered associated with a given website, and have one-click access to those pages.

Initially, the feature offers:

  1. Availability today on the inbound links tab and in Link Intersect on the "pages -> subdomains" view. In the future, if y'all find it useful, we hope to expand its presence to other areas of the tool as well.
  2. Email accounts will only be shown if they match the domain name (e.g. rand@moz.com would be shown next to moz.com, randfishkin@yahoo.com would not) and if they appear in standard format on the page (we don't try to grab emails in JavaScript or that use alternate formats to obsfucate).
  3. We show Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and email addresses we've found on multiple pages of the site (we take a small random set and analyze whether these social/contact data pieces are uniform). If we find multiple accounts, you'll see this:

Use cases

There are three major use cases for this feature (at least for me; you might have more!):

1) Link/Outreach prospecting

It can be a pain to visit sites, find social accounts/emails, and copy them into a spreadsheet or send messages (and recall which ones you have/haven't done yet). By including social/contact data in the same interface where you're doing link analysis, we hope to save you time and clicks.

2) Link/site trust and audience reach analysis

We're actually using this data on the back end at Moz for our upcoming Spam Score feature (coming very soon), but you can use it manually to help with a quick mental filter for trustworthy/authoritative/non-spammy sites, and to get a sense for the size and reach of a site's social audience.

3) At-a-glance analysis of social networks among a group

If you're in a given space (e.g. travel blogs), it's a process to determine which social networks are/aren't being used by industry participants and influencers. Social/contact data in OSE can help with that by showing which social networks various sites are using and linking to from their pages:

We need your feedback

This first implementation is relatively light in the app—we haven't yet placed this data anywhere/everywhere it might be useful. Before we do, we want to hear what you think: Is this useful and valuable to your work? Does it help save you time? Would you want to see the feature expanded and if so, in what sections would it provide the greatest value to you? Please let us know in the comments, and by getting back in touch with us after you've had a chance to try it out for yourself.

Thanks for giving social/contact data a spin, and look for more upgrades to Open Site Explorer in the very near future!


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Seth's Blog : Along for the ride

Along for the ride

Like the pilot says, "sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight."

When you're on one of those Disneyland boats, it takes you where Disney wants you to go. That's why you got on. And so you are lulled, a spectator, merely a tourist.

So different, isn't it, from driving yourself, choosing your own route and owning what comes of it?

How long have you been along for the ride? When is your turn to actually drive?

       

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marți, 17 martie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


IMF Fears "Taper Tantrum"; Rear View Mirror Discovery

Posted: 17 Mar 2015 11:39 AM PDT

The totally useless and always late to the party, Christine Lagarde, just now warns of Emerging Markets Instability.
The head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that emerging markets are set to face a renewed period of economic instability when US interest rates rise this year, forecasting a repeat of 2013's damaging "taper tantrum" episode of capital flight and rapid currency depreciation.

The IMF chief said she feared that negative "spillover" effects from these increases would lead to a re-run of the crisis that hit developing economies such as India and Turkey nearly two years ago, following hints from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke about an early end to the institution's bond purchasing programme known as quantitative easing.

"I am afraid this may not be a one-off episode," Ms Lagarde said. "The timing of interest rate lift-off and the pace of subsequent rate increases can still surprise markets. The danger is that vulnerabilities that build up during a period of very accommodative monetary policy can unwind suddenly when such policy is reversed, creating substantial market volatility."
Taper Tantrum

How did Lagarde arrive at her not so amazing prediction?

I believe she finally opened her shades and looked out the window.

She saw a currency crisis in Brazil, a currency crisis in Turkey, and capital flight out of China.

Turkish Lira vs. US Dollar



Brazilian Real vs. US Dollar



Chanos Sees China Capital Flight

Flashback October 28, 2014: Short-Seller Chanos says China Seeing Faster Capital Flight.
Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who has a long-running bet against China, said that the country's credit bubble was starting to cause capital outflows to accelerate and may ultimately lead to weakness in the nation's currency.

"It's safe to say it's accelerating," said Chanos, speaking of capital flight out of China, and said China's quarterly drop in foreign exchange reserves was "noticeable."

China's foreign exchange reserves fell in the third quarter by $105.5 billion, the first quarterly fall since 2012 and the largest dollar decline on record, according to People's Bank of China data.
Uncovering the Conduits for China's Capital Flight

On March 6, Andrew Collier of Orient Capital Research wrote an excellent article on Conduits for China's Capital Flight.
Chinese investors have discovered a new way to spirit money out of the country behind the backs of the country's regulators.

In recent years, savvy investors have used false invoicing as a way to disguise their capital flight. A Chinese company pays $1m to a foreign company for a machine tool that is actually worth $500,000; the rest is invested in property or stocks in London or Sydney or New York.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) became wise to the scheme and began requiring banks to provide more documentation when they allocated foreign exchange to such overseas transactions. As a result, this form of evading capital controls has become more difficult to pull off.

Instead, clever bankers have discovered a new way to move the money offshore for their clients: service payments. Instead of overpaying for an item, they simply pay for a service that never occurred.

Why is this capital flight occurring? With China's property bubble coming to an end, the ability to generate quick profits through the Shadow Banks is no longer available to the country's wealthier citizens. Many also are faced with President Xi Jinping's continuing crackdown against corruption.

Fake companies

We interviewed bankers in China who were quite candid about how they evade capital controls. Currently, the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has the fewest document requirements for consulting and service fees. "It's simple for our clients to get the proof of materials as long as they know an overseas company that is willing to write a receipt. In fact, a VAT invoice issued by a restaurant in China could have more legal power than the receipt provided by an overseas company," one foreign commercial banker in Shanghai told us.

There are a couple of methods that have become popular over the past few months.

1) Study Abroad Schemes
2) Interbank Borrowing
3) Overseas Branches of Domestic Companies
4) False Joint Ventures

Many domestic companies have established joint-venture companies with their own overseas subsidiaries, even though this is technically illegal. The JV partner keeps the profits for overseas investing.

How Big is the Problem and What Does it Mean for China's Economy?
The SAFE, CBRC and other regulators in Beijing appear to be unaware of how large these transfers are. Bankers involved estimate that as much as 40% of the larger service transactions do not involve actual services. This suggests close to $200 billion of all service payments are in reality permanent exports of capital. That number could double in 2015.
Rear View Mirror Discovery

The already well established "tantrum" is actually part of the "Dollar Shortage" thesis. For discussion, see Dollar Shortage Revisited; Is Japan Zimbabwe? Who's in Control? World Gone Mad.

Central banks, other policy makers, and the IMF only see problems after they are well established. Now, out of the blue, they warn of currency crises and emerging market instability that should have been easy to spot over a year ago.

Capital flight out of China has been accelerating for some time, a slowing China has had a huge spillover on Australia and Brazil, and even though it's obvious global growth has slowed to the point of recession, the IMF still has not figured that out yet either.

I have heard back from Anne Stevenson-Yang regarding her excellent presentation on China. Yang maintains China is barely growing if at all. (See Reality Check: How Fast is China Growing? Global Recession at Hand).

I have an excellent power point of hers to share, including a few updated slides. I hope to get this out later today or tomorrow.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com