Gary Bentley reunited with a nurse that changed his life at Vulcan Park Sunday afternoon. When he was a kid he had open heart surgery and he always remembered Nurse Kathy for being so nice to him during his hospital stay. He spent a lot of time trying to track her down and 40 years later he found a way to express his gratitude.
Everyone has stayed in a hotel at some point in their lives but there's a lot of stuff that goes on behind the scenes that you don't know about. Today you're going to learn all the dirty little secrets that the hotels don't want you to know. This will change how you look at hotels forever.
A father and son team from China have been using scrap metal to build sculptures of Transformers and they've been very successful. They're currently making over $160,000 a year from these replicas this team is going viral thanks to their impeccable creations.
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The kind of listening we're trained to do in school and at work is passive listening. Sit still. Get through it. Figure out what's going to be on the test and ignore the rest. Your eyes can glaze over, but don't let it show. Try not to nod off. People are talking, and they'd like the illusion of listening to accompany that. Don't interrupt.
Passive listening is letting the other person talk.
Active listening, on the other hand, requires that you interrupt when you need a clarification, and it requires that you ask a truly difficult question when the speaker is finished.
If it's worth listening to, it's worth questioning until you understand it.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on Wednesday put its gauge at 0.2%, down from its earlier estimate of 0.3%.
Morgan Stanley economists lowered their estimate for first-quarter growth to an annualized 0.9% from an earlier forecast of 1.2%, pointing to light inventories and lower capital goods exports as weighing on GDP.
Economists at Barclays lowered their projection a tenth of a percentage point to 1.2%.
The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers also trimmed its estimate down to 1.2% from 1.5% before Wednesday. Barclays and Macroeconomic Advisers cited, among other factors, worries that the drop in shipments last month foretells a decline in first-quarter equipment investment.
J.P. Morgan Chase economists lowered their first-quarter forecast to an annualized 1.5%, from 2%, saying a decline in investment by oil companies — the result of the plunge in oil prices — could offset the lift from higher consumer spending.
Optimism Still Rules
Optimism is still the order of the day.
"Overall, given the usual noise in the data, as well as a melange of other special factors, we do not view the 1.5% [First-quarter] tracking as so far below the 2.4% average of the current expansion to raise more serious worries," said J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli in a note to clients.
"Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawson said on Wednesday he scaled back his view of U.S. growth in the first quarter, following an unexpectedly weak report on domestic durable goods orders in February."
Core Business Orders
Today we learned core business spending, defined as new nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, declined for the sixth month.
Core business spending declined seven months at the beginning of 2012, but nearly all data other than jobs growth has been weak this go around.
The series is somewhat volatile as the following chart shows.
GDP Now Forecast Declines Again
Once again, let's tune into the GDPNow Forecast of the Atlanta Fed.
GDPNow History
The initial forecast on February 2, was 1.9% annualized growth. It is now 0.2% annualized growth. That's quite the plunge in less than two months.
Autos are slowing and so will auto-related jobs. Yet economists believe "Auto sales are expected to reach their highest level in a decade this year, bolstered by strong job gains and cheap gas."
My take: Autos will soon subtract from GDP.
Growth in fixed investment is falling rapidly. Equipment, industrial equipment, and transportation equipment are already in contraction.
Inventories added 0.82 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. Over time, this series trends to zero, so expect a pull back next quarter.
Rising imports subtract from GDP. Imports actually took 1.39 percentage points from GDP. If oil prices head back up, even modestly, this number could get worse.
Exports added 0.37 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. But note the trend.
Because of the rising US dollar, export growth is dwindling. Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?
All things considered, this GDP report is far more than a simple snapback from the rapid expansion last quarter.
I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.
Let's return to a question I asked above: Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?
I suggest the answer is subtract. Not only are US exports getting more expensive relative to Europe and Japan, the entire rest of the global economy is slowing rapidly. Our biggest trading partner is Canada and Canada is in recession, with a rapidly sinking loonie (Canadian dollar) on top of it.
US Recession
The US won't decouple, just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).
Indeed, now that virtually no economist expects a US recession, I believe we are finally on the cusp of one, just as the Fed seems committed to hike
Much of this seemed pretty obvious back in January. I suppose it's not obvious because economists still don't see it.
Then again, economists have a perfect track record. They have never once in history predicted a recession.
The durable goods report for February was released today. It was another disaster in a long line of weak economic reports. And once again economists missed their optimistic estimates by a mile.
Apparently the weather has been bad for six straight months because this is the sixth consecutive decline in overall business spending.
Durables orders fell 1.4 percent in February after rebounding 2.0 percent the month before. Market expectations were for a 0.7 percent gain.
Excluding transportation, the core declined 0.4 percent, following a 0.7 percent drop in January. Analysts projected a 0.3 percent gain in February.
With those estimates in hand, let's dive into the Commerce Report on durable goods.
Durable Goods Synopsis
New Orders. New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $3.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $231.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 2.0 percent January increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent [the fifth straight decline]. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.5 billion or 3.5 percent to $69.5 billion. [Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 1.4% from January. That marked the sixth straight monthly decline. This is the business spending component for machinery, computers, etc.]
Shipments. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $244.0 billion. This followed a 1.4 percent January decrease. Primary metals, down five consecutive months, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $26.1 billion.
Unfilled Orders. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down three consecutive months, decreased $5.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $1,156.9 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent January decrease. Transportation equipment, also down three consecutive months, led the decrease, $4.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $731.6 billion.
Inventories. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $413.0 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 percent January increase. Transportation equipment, also up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, drove the increase, $1.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $135.4 billion.
Capital Goods. Nondefense new orders for capital goods in February decreased $2.1 billion or 2.6 percent to $77.3 billion. Shipments decreased slightly to $80.2 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $727.8 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $186.8 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in February increased $0.8 billion or 10.2 percent to $8.3 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $9.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.7 billion.
Item
Feb
Jan
Dec
Jan-Feb %Chg
Dec-Jan % Chg
Nov-Dec % Chg
Total New Orders
231,291
234,462
229,827
-1.4
2.0
-3.7
Ex-Transportation Orders
161,807
162,453
163,651
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
Ex-Defense Orders
222,596
224,795
219,755
-1.0
2.3
-3.2
Transportation Orders
69,484
72,009
66,176
-35
8.8
-10.0
Capital Goods Orders
86,650
86,933
81,003
-1.5
7.3
-10.3
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders
77,324
79,377
72,990
-2.6
8.8
-10.1
Defense Capital Goods Orders
8,326
7,556
8,013
10.2
-5.7
-11.8
Core Capital Goods Orders
69,250
70,225
70,308
-1.4
-0.1
-0.5
Core Capital Goods Shipments
70,044
69,909
70,212
0.2
-0.4
0.4
Line items (except the last line which shows shipments) are new orders, in millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Core capital goods exclude defense and aircraft.
Once again this was another exceptionally weak economic report, and once again economists were not close to the mark.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Eurozone watchers have said 11th hour so many times that no one believes it any more. To place new emphasis on the plight of Greece it's now allegedly 1 minute to midnight.
Given that Greek funds were supposed to last until April 30, there's plenty of time for 30 seconds to midnight, 20 seconds to midnight, then a countdown to Cinderella hour when Greece may finally turn into a pumpkin.
Greece's government has raided the coffers of its public health service and the Athens metro as it widens a hunt for funds to keep itself afloat and service debts.
Athens faces a €1.7bn bill for wages and pensions at the end of the month and then a €450m loan payment to the International Monetary Fund on April 9. Greek government and eurozone officials believe Athens does not have funds to cover both.
In another constraint on Greece's ability to raise cash, the European Central Bank decided to impose stricter curbs on the issuance of short-term government debt.
EU officials expressed hope that a marathon Monday night meeting between Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, and his German counterpart, chancellor Angela Merkel, would spark long-stalled talks over economic reforms Greece must implement to unlock €7.2bn in frozen bailout aid.
In the absence of progress, some EU officials were accelerating their preparations in case Athens runs out of cash before it agrees a reform programme. In Brussels, European Commission officials have begun looking again at EU law governing capital controls in case the growing uncertainty, or a non-payment to the IMF, spurs a renewed run on bank deposits.
In Frankfurt, the ECB informed Greece's biggest banks that it was making legally binding the ceiling it imposed last month on their holdings of short-term Treasury bills.
Such a move will limit the Eurosystem's exposure to the Greek government should it fail to pay its debts. But it will also close off another source of financing on which Athens had been relying.
Greek banks hold about €11bn in Greek T-bills, and Athens must roll over two T-bills totalling €2.4bn in mid-April.
"The Greeks are one minute away from midnight," said Mujtaba Rahman, head of European analysis at the Eurasia Group consultancy. "The government is at the edge of the precipice and may well go over.
In a sign that the cash crunch has become more desperate, officials at Greece's state healthcare service, were asked on Tuesday to hand over a €50m reserve for paying arrears owed to medical workers.
Earlier this month about €150m of budget funding for hospital supplies was unexpectedly withheld, according to health ministry officials.
The government has so far rounded up more than €600m of cash held by state-owned corporations, including contributions from the Athens metro company, the state electricity supplier, PPC, and the Athens water utility.
About €300m in EU subsidies due to farmers has been diverted to cover salary payments to civil servants, according to people briefed on how the cash crunch is being handled.
Some officials believe a failure to pay the IMF in April would not be catastrophic: under fund rules, a non-payment is not immediately considered a default, though it would prevent Greece from accessing any IMF bailout funding. Half of the €7.2bn tranche Athens is seeking comes from the fund.
A failure to pay either of the T-bills — one is due on April 14, the next on April 17 — would probably bring wider upheaval since they could trigger clauses in other debt obligations that would make them due immediately.
The ECB ceiling could make repayment of the April 14 bill particularly challenging. Greek banks have been the primary buyers of such debt and have essentially rolled over their existing holdings during recent T-bill auctions. But at least 20 per cent of the April 14 bill is held by investors outside Greece who are unlikely to roll over their holdings and Greek banks are now barred from buying up the difference.
Seven Seconds to Midnight?
With all these funds being diverted, I fail to see how Greece can possibly make it to April 30.
Thus I offer my own number. I believe it's seven seconds to midnight. However, we have seen the clock stop on many occasions before, stuck on the 11th hour for weeks on end.
It could easily stop at one second to midnight for a week or so.
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