Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- UK Election Shocker: Exit Polls Show Cameron's Tories Do Far Better Than Expected, 10 Short of Outright Majority
- Explaining UK's Dysfunctional Voting System; Where is British Politics Headed? Horse Trading
- Meet Yangyang Another Humanoid Robot
- UK National Elections Underway: Expected Outcome is Hung Parliament
Posted: 07 May 2015 03:57 PM PDT An exit poll shocker shows Cameron's Tories Do Far Better Than Expected. Heading into the election, the Guardian made this projection:
UKIP Here's a report in from South Thanet, the constituency that Farage is hoping to take off the Tories, from FT reporter Barney Thompson: Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, will be hoping dawn brings a similarly bright future as the new MP for South Thanet, where he stood unsuccessfully in 2005. But he is in a skintight race with the Conservative Craig Mackinley (a former Ukip deputy leader, in fact), with Labour breathing down both their necks.British Pound Reaction Coalition The likely coalition now is Tories plus Liberal Democrats and UKIP if needed. If Tories or Liberal Democrats do as much as one vote worse than exit polls show (assuming the gain is for Labour), the coalition will need UKIP. This was a rout of Labour and the Liberal Democrats vs. expectations. UKIP did better than expected. The FT's Gavin Jackson observes: "Ukip have done quite well in the seats that have declared so far. But these are safe Labour seats, for the overall result how they do in the marginals is more important - and at whose expense". Better than expected, even far better than expected may not translate into seats, but it does reflect important sentiment, especially when it's at Labour's expense. The range for UKIP now appears to be 1-4, with 1 a given. The Guardian pre-election poll for UKIP predicted 3, whereas two other polls suggested 1. The comments on Election live: The battle for Westminster tell the story. I am relatively happy with this outcome. If Cameron keeps his word there will be an up-down vote on UK exit of EU. A Labour victory would have been an outright disaster. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
Explaining UK's Dysfunctional Voting System; Where is British Politics Headed? Horse Trading Posted: 07 May 2015 11:48 AM PDT Early this morning in UK National Elections Underway: Expected Outcome is Hung Parliament I noted the dysfunctional nature of the election. To recap, the expected outcome for the Scottish National Party (SNP) is 51 seats on 4-5% of the vote, while the expected outcome for Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party (UKIP) is one seat on as much as 16% of the vote. UKIP could win 25% of the vote and still potentially not win any seats. I expect UKIP to do a bit better than one seat, but I could easily be wrong. Indeed it is conceivable that not even Farage wins. This morning I said "What matters is how concentrated the votes are, not how many you get." Actually both matter, but concentration is the key to winning seats. SNP is likely to win nearly every Scottish seat because SNP dominates Scotland. It will get no votes elsewhere. Recall the platform of SNP was to break away from the UK. And 51 votes taken away from the Tories (Cameron's party - Conservatives) or Labour (Ed Milliband) is sufficient to result in a hung parliament. The UK The Labour Party is a full member of the Party of European Socialists and Progressive Alliance. They favor taxation as a means to achieve a "major redistribution of wealth and income". Lovely. Had Cameron simply granted UKIP the promised up-down vote on the UK remaining in the EU, the Tories would have had a better outcome. Where is British Politics Headed? Stratfor has a nice writeup today that explains Where British Politics Is Headed. For the second election in a row, the Labour Party and the Conservatives (or "Tories"), the two traditional heavyweights, probably will not muster the 323 seats needed to form a majority government. Whereas in 2010 the Tories were able to form a reasonably stable coalition government with the centrist Liberal Democrats, this time the numbers do not seem to support a two-party coalition.UK's Two Party System is Effectively Over To rein in SNP, the UK may go to a proportional vote. But to do that, UKIP will gain prominence, and likely far more than it would have otherwise. Why? Because many people did not want to "waste their vote" on a party that would get few, if any seats. Then again, if Cameron manages to hold on long enough to grant the promised up-down vote on the UK staying in the EU, and then if that vote is "no" much of the reason for UKIP will go away. Expect an unstable coalition out of this. Cameron staying in power might even depend on UKIP winning a handful of seats more than expected. Once again here is the Final Projection from the Financial Times. Note that Labour could merge with SNP and the Liberal Democrats to get a majority. Indeed it is likely that Labour and SNP merge. However, Liberal Democrats are a better fit with the Conservatives. Yet, Conservatives plus Liberal Democrats will not throw them over the top. The Guardian projects ...
Horse Trading We will have the results of the election soon. But projections suggest that's when the horse trading really begins. Are there enough horses to go around? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
Meet Yangyang Another Humanoid Robot Posted: 07 May 2015 09:57 AM PDT A female humanoid robot "Yangyang", named and modeled after her creator, has a variety of realistic facial expressions. "Yangyang" wows visitors at Beijing's Global Mobile Internet Conference. The robot is modeled on one of the researchers who helped develop the technology. She can blink, smile, shake hands and even hug her human doppelganger. Yangyang is the fourth robot produced by Shanghai Shenqing Industry. The robots are controlled remotely and are made of a special type of silica gel that feels like human skin. Researcher Song Yang saying (Mandarin): "This is the first one inside China. At present this robot has the most features, she has 43 degrees of freedom across her whole body, most of them are concentrated on the face, because of this, her expressions can be very varied." The team behind Yangyang believe future robots like her could be used as sales assistants, or body doubles for celebrities. One of the researchers has already used his body double to deliver lectures on his behalf. But the robot isn't foolproof, it couldn't answer any of the student's questions.Yangyang Click on link above to play video. Also consider "Ham" the Humanoid Robot. Ham reacts to facial expressions, can engage in conversation and make eye contact. "Ham" meet "Yangyang". I believe she is your type. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
UK National Elections Underway: Expected Outcome is Hung Parliament Posted: 07 May 2015 12:15 AM PDT I frequently comment on major elections, but here we are with voting for UK prime minister now in progress, and I have not chimed in yet. Unlike in Greece where I was confident Syriza would poll better than expected (and it did), I have no particular feeling of confidence on what is likely to be a a very important election. Voting Booths are just now open as of 1:00AM US central where I reside. Here are the Final Polls. Note that UKIP is in third place. How do you think that will translate into parliamentary representation? Here is a Final Projection from the Financial Times. Note the apparent silliness of it all. What matters is how concentrated the votes are, not how many you get. On a guess the revolt vote is underestimated, I am going to go out on a limb and suggest UKIP will win 7-10 seats. Hung Parliament The most likely outcome is there will not be a winner. The Guardian reports General election 2015: Britain heading for hung parliament. When the Guardian's poll projection, an average of all the polls made public, is updated to take account of the new ICM data, it places both the Conservatives and Labour on 273 seats – neither anywhere near the 326 required for an absolute majority.Elusive Outcome If this sounds confusing, it is because it is confusing. Bloomberg highlights the issues in U.K. Votes in Unprecedented Election With Outcome Elusive. Polls suggest that neither Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron nor his Labour opponent Ed Miliband will come close to getting enough seats in Parliament to govern alone. Instead, they face days or even weeks of talks to try to win over enough smaller parties to command a majority.Still Confused? I thought so. This is one of the most complicated elections ever. I have no love of David Cameron. Yet I am rooting for him because of his promised up-down vote on the UK remaining in the EU. Although there is no reason to believe Cameron will keep his word, there will not be a vote for certain if Labour wins. Such is the sorry state of politics. How about a vote for "none of the above"? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
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