Central Perk

miercuri, 22 iulie 2015

You're more powerful than you think. The altMBA is now accepting applicants for its second class. The program is working. We're helping accelerate the impact people are making in the world, and I hope you'll forward this post to someone in search of transformation.

Are you ready to grow, to see, to be transformed?

One way to get to where you're going is to surround yourself with people on a similar journey. That's what I set out to create when I founded the altMBA, and it has dramatically exceeded all of my expectations.

This week, some extraordinary people are graduating from our first month-long intensive session, and the feedback from our inaugural class is even better than I hoped.

"The content is hugely applicable to so many different disciplines. I'm learning and growing at the speed of light, and it's very easy to see the changes within my peers as well. Honestly, this should be a mandatory for marketing graduates. Period."

-Kelli Wood

"Community feedback, peer support, shared beliefs in personal potential, and the right to pursue happiness make the altMBA a perfect place to prepare to leap. My creative confidence is growing immensely. This process confirmed for me that I could map out taking on a big project, stick to the plan, and have a completed product when I'm done with altMBA."

-Ryon Lane

"I literally feel transformed from each project. I have never experienced anything like this. I am surprised by the genuine personal connections. Seth talked about that as part of the MBA experience, but I didn't believe that would happen in 30 days."

- Chris Carroll

If you're ready for this sort of change, I hope you will check out this page profiling our graduates (the peer-to-peer interactions among our students are the most important part of the program). Then, check out this quick overview of what we've built and how it can help you get to where you're going. Here's the FAQ.

The altMBA is designed to transform professionals—to assemble a talented cadre of people and give them a platform to push each other to make real change happen.

The biggest insight: it was a group effort. It's about the student-to-student connection, the reciprocal challenges of discovery and growth and quality that created an environment that worked. We are as good as the people we hang out with.

Applications are now open for the next session.

The altMBA is an important step in the evolution of online learning, but way more important than that, it's a huge step in how you develop yourself and your career.

There's a free informational audio webinar about the course, held tomorrow at 12 pm NY time, and archived if you can't watch it live. I think it may help you decide if this is the right opportunity for you.

We're selective in who is admitted, curating the class to improve its impact. Priority is given based on your work history as well as the date of your application. I hope this is something you'll consider, and I apologize if we're not able to admit everyone who applies.

In many ways, the altMBA is the culmination of much of what I've been teaching over the last two decades. I hope you can join in.

If you're ready for this, we're ready for you. Here we go.

• Email to a friend •

marți, 21 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

SuperBull Club: RBC Ups Morgan Stanley, Says Bull Market to Continue 6 Years; Sobering Alternative View from GMO

Posted: 21 Jul 2015 01:42 PM PDT

SuperBull Club

RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. market strategist Jonathan Golub joined the SuperBull Club today. Golub says Years Left to Go in S&P 500 Bull Market.

The U.S. economy's slow recovery may extend another six years, potentially doubling the duration of the bull market in equities, according to RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. market strategist Jonathan Golub.

Bull markets tend to continue until an economic cycle runs out, usually after about seven years, Golub said in an interview with Bob Moon on Bloomberg Radio. Given the pace of the current economic expansion, he said the cycle could last 12 years or longer, providing investors with reason to continue buying stocks.

"We're going to see a lot more upside to the stock market," Golub said. "This is going to go on for long enough that many Americans are going to be able to participate in the run higher."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has more than tripled during the current bull run, which at 76 months is the second longest in the past 60 years.

He forecasts the benchmark index will end the year at 2,325, the fourth-most bullish forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 21 strategists.

Upping Morgan Stanley's 5-Year Prediction

Gulub upped the forecast of Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist.

On Monday, Parker stated his belief: Another 5 Years to Bull Market.

I commented "The bulls are attempting to outdo each other as often happens at or near market tops. But who's to say this is a top? Why stop with a 5-year rally? Why not 10 or 20 years? Why not forever? There's plenty of room for more optimism, and this bull market won't end until we see every ounce of it."

It seems fitting that it took only one day for RBC to up the forecast of Morgan Stanley. Surely, someone can outdo six more years.

SuperBulls, it's time to strut your stuff.

Sobering Alternative View from GMO

In contrast, to the SuperBulls, I present the 7-Year Real Return Forecast of GMO.

*The chart represents real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward‐looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward‐looking statements. Forward‐looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. U.S. inflation is assumed to mean revert to long‐term inflation of 2.2% over 15 years.

Rain on the SuperBull Party

Note that GMO expects negative real returns in US stocks, on average, for a full seven years.

I hate to ruin a SuperBull party with forecasts that have been historically among the best in the world, but so be it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Total Gridlock: 25,000 French Farmers Face Bankruptcy, Block Roads, Dump manure, Rotting Vegetables

Posted: 21 Jul 2015 11:10 AM PDT

25,000 French Farmers Face Bankruptcy

In France, no matter how inefficient the business, the proposed solution is typically higher prices rather than to let weak businesses go under.

And so it is again. Hollande's remedy for farmers facing bankruptcy is not to preach against overproduction, inefficiencies, or the inane trade embargo with Russia, but rather to encourage shops to raise prices.

Prices went up, but farmers are upset that middlemen took most of the cut. In response Angry French farmers protest low meat prices with manure, road blocks.

French livestock farmers, furious at falling prices for dairy and meat, used farm vehicles to block access to the tourist hotspot Mont Saint-Michel and two towns in Lower Normandy Monday in a bid to push officials to address the crisis.

French Agriculture Minister Stéphane Le Foll described the situation as an "agricultural crisis", stating on Saturday that one in ten of all French livestock farmers (some 25,000 farms), are now facing bankruptcy.

A large protest began Sunday in Lower Normandy, and grew in momentum Monday, with protests spreading across the region and to neighbouring Brittany.

Almost 300 tractors and farm vehicles, including skips filled with manure, blocked access Monday to the cities of Caen and Lisieux, both located in Lower Normandy. Protestors also blocked access to Mont Saint-Michel, one of the most-visited tourist sites in France.

Some protesting farmers in Caen targeted supermarkets, who they accuse of keeping prices low, and left buckets of manure in front of other businesses in the meat production sector, including a slaughterhouse, a distribution company and a meat-processing plant, who they also believe are part of the problem.

Le Foll offered to meet with the Norman farmers on Thursday in Paris after examining a report on the prices of agricultural products but the angry livestock farmers declined the invitation, saying that they are waiting for the minister to come to them.

There are numerous factors behind the low prices of French meat. Supermarkets want to keep prices low and French farmers are facing increased competition from foreign producers, who have lower production costs.

On June 17, retailers and representatives from the food industry agreed to raise the price of meat and dairy so they could pay more to hard-up livestock farmers, enabling them to cover their ever-increasing production costs. However, farmers say they haven't benefited from the price hikes.

Attendees at the June meeting agreed that a kilo of beef would be revalued by 5 cents a week, yet only 7 cents have been gained in an entire month.

Is buying 'Made in France' the answer?

Two days ago, French President François Hollande launched an appeal to supermarkets to "offer consumers quality, and offer farmers a [good] price." He also announced a new "made in France" label for meat and called on French citizens to do their bit by buying French products.

On July 20, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called for "dialogue" between the actors and said that he felt for the farmers.

"We understand the anger and distress of the livestock farmers. They must know that the government will stand side-by-side with them as we seek a solution."

For their part, these angry farmers say they will continue to block traffic and leave buckets of manure on factory doorsteps until someone pays attention.

Total Gridlock

Agriland reports French farmers block roads as '25,000 face bankruptcy'.

French farmers have caused total gridlock in northwestern France in recent days, by blocking the roads with their tractors and machinery in protest against the low prices they are receiving for their produce.

These protests are not a new occurrence in France, in November last year farmers staged what they called a 'Grand Mobilisation' protesting across the country due to poor prices for their produce.

Organised by the French Farmers Union (FNSEA) and the Young Farmers Union (YA), last year the day saw tonnes upon tonnes of manure and rotting vegetables dumped on French streets.

French farmers have been holding protests for weeks, including a national "night of distress" earlier this month.

More manure was dumped outside French supermarkets, tyres were set on fire and roads were blocked.

The four-point solution to this madness is surprisingly simple.

Easy Solution

Lift the embargo on Russia that is hurting France as much or more than it is Russia.
Let small, inefficient French farms go bankrupt.
Fine farmers dumping manure and blocking streets.
Charge farmers cleanup costs.

The problem would vanish in a week were France to adopt common-sense measures.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

This Is What a Nearly 9000 Calorie Pizza Looks Like
Witty YouTube Comments That Will Crack You Up
Brazilian Street Cleaner Offered Modeling Job After These Pictures Hit The Internet

This Is What a Nearly 9000 Calorie Pizza Looks Like

Posted: 21 Jul 2015 02:14 PM PDT

Witty YouTube Comments That Will Crack You Up

Posted: 21 Jul 2015 02:01 PM PDT

YouTube, you go for the videos, but you stay for the comments.

Brazilian Street Cleaner Offered Modeling Job After These Pictures Hit The Internet

Posted: 21 Jul 2015 01:26 PM PDT

Rita Mattos has become an Internet sensation overnight. These pictures of her posing as she cleans the streets of Brazil have led to her being offered several modeling jobs as well as many dates. The pictures started circulating on WhatsApp and now Rita has become Internet famous.