duminică, 16 august 2015

Seth's Blog : Fired up

Fired up

A friend was in a meeting with a few colleagues when my latest book came up.

One person said, "After I finished it, I was all fired up, and I felt like quitting my job to go do something amazing."

The other one said, "That's funny. After I finished it, I was all fired up and I couldn't wait to come to work to do something amazing."

Fired up isn't something you can count on, but it's certainly possibly to create a job, an opportunity and a series of inputs and feedback that makes it more likely that people get that way.

And fired up sometimes drives people to do amazing work with you, especially if you've built a job description and an organization that can take that energy and turn it into work that matters.

Give people (give yourself) projects that can take all the magic and energy and enthusiasm they want to give.

       

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sâmbătă, 15 august 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


BLS vs.Gallup Unemployment Rate - Massive Discrepancies

Posted: 15 Aug 2015 10:17 AM PDT

The Gallup Daily U.S. Employment , poll estimates unemployment at 6.3% and underemployment at 14.5%.



Gallup cautions: "Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point."

Actually the numbers can be compared. All one has to do is use the BLS non-seasonally adjusted numbers.

Civilian Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted



Gallup estimates the unemployment rate at 6.3% but the BLS says 5.6%. If anything, the BLS number should be higher than Gallup.

Why?

Because Gallup surveys those 18 and older whereas the BLS surveys 16 and older. Given high youth-unemployment, any BLS bias should be higher, not lower.

Underemployment

And please check out the massive difference in underemployment. The BLS says 10.7% while Gallup says 14.5%!



Sampling

Gallup uses a 30-day rolling average, not seasonally adjusted, and samples 30,000 people for their rolling-average numbers.

The Gallup numbers are more believable than the BLS numbers.

Finally, for comparison purposes, the University of Michigan sentiment survey does a one-time sample a mere 500 people on which it allegedly measures spending habits and the economic health of the entire nation.

For my take on sentiment, please see Sentiment as a Measure of Health of the Economy; Sentiment Theory vs. Practice.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekend Humor: Safety First - Image of a German, a Greek, and the IMF Designing a Rescue

Posted: 15 Aug 2015 09:35 AM PDT

Here's an image I picked up from Guru Huky at Guru's Blog.



The translated title of Guru's post is "A German, a Greek, and the IMF Designing a Rescue".

This is humorous but not quite Darwin Award material.
Double Darwin Award!

(2 March 2014, Netherlands) Two intoxicated men dared each other to test their courage against an intercity train at a Rotterdam train station. At 1800 hours on a Sunday evening, the station was crowded with more than 300 fans returning from a soccer-match pitting Feyenoord against Ajax at De Kuip, the most beautiful soccer stadium in Holland.

The two men stepped off the platform and strode forth onto the tracks. One superdaredevil lay down between the tracks, intending to prove that the entire train would pass over him. What a story to tell! His friend was less confident and he merely knelt down next to the track and kept his head as close as possible to where he thought the train's profile would be. Turns out that the 130 km/h train that came down the track some seconds later was both lower and wider than they thought. They were killed instantly.

The 300+ onlookers on the platform were none too pleased by the spectacle, and train traffic was interrupted for several hours while authorities cleaned up the mess.
More Darwin Awards

Also consider "The Ring Thing" and "Natural Birth Control", the latter was another double-Darwin award.

A nice 2013 Darwin Award winner involves an Elevator Death in which a man forced open the doors of an elevator on the 7th floor, jumped out to the cables to slide down, and died in the ensuing crash. His estate filed a losing lawsuit against the elevator manufacturer after exhuming his body 18 months later.
The person in question had voluntarily swallowed a mix of decision-impairing substances bringing his BAC [blood alcohol concentration] to 0.17% with a Xanax chaser. Unfamiliar with Xanax, this writer thumbed through the Urban Dictionary and found Xanax described as one of the more addictive benzos with withdrawal effects including psychosis and epileptic-type seizures.

Summary? A DARWIN AWARD is granted to Chad Wolfe, while a STELLA AWARD for legal stupidity is awarded to the Estate of Chad Wolfe.
As readers may have guessed, men are far more likely than women to win Darwin Awards.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Pattern matching

Pattern matching

If it was a good idea to do X, then it's a good idea to do Y.

When this statement is true, it's almost irresistible. Not the obvious similarities on the surface, but the deep comparisons, the resonant influences, the patterns that a trained insider sees.

That's what makes a VC or an HR person appear to be a genius. They find useful patterns and they match them.

The problem is that marketers often force the comparison, because we're so eager to get people to do Y, our Y, the Y we have in hand. So we focus on the surface stuff, insisting that people follow the obvious pattern from their X to our Y.

Instead of running around with your product looking for customers, perhaps you could figure out who the customers are and build a product for them instead.

       

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vineri, 14 august 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Sentiment as a Measure of Health of the Economy; Sentiment Theory vs. Practice

Posted: 14 Aug 2015 12:10 PM PDT

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers came out today. Sentiment is down again this month, albeit slightly. Yet, confidence remains at a lofty level.

Economists claim high sentiment numbers are good news for retail spending. Economists also claim  the high confidence numbers is a reflection on the overall health of the domestic economy.

Sentiment Theory vs. Practice

Let's take a look at that theory starting with the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of the University of Michigan sentiment numbers.
Consumer sentiment is little changed so far this month, at 92.9 for the mid-month August reading vs 93.1 for final July. An early indication on August's consumer sector comes with the current conditions component which is nearly unchanged, at 107.1 vs July's 107.2. This hints at steady strength for consumer spending this month. The expectations component, which offers indications on the employment outlook, slipped 3 tenths to a still solid 83.8.

Inflation readings are also little changed and have yet to reflect the ongoing price collapse for oil, at 2.8 percent for 1-year expectations, which is unchanged, and 2.7 percent for 5-year expectations which is down 1 tenth.

Consumer confidence readings are down from their highs earlier in the year but are still very solid and a reminder that unemployment is low and that the domestic economy is healthy.

Definition

The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.
Having taken a look at what economists claim, let's investigate the accuracy of those claims.

Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Sales



Sentiment has a tendency to rise due to population growth. So instead, let's focus on year-over-year changes in sentiment vs. year-over-year sales growth.

Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Sales (Percent Growth from Year Ago)



Consumer Sentiment as Measure of Sound Economy



Proven Bullsheet

  1. The idea that spending follows consumer sentiment is proven silliness.
  2. The idea that confidence readings are a sign of a healthy economy are as ridiculous, if not even more ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Industrial Production Jumps on Surge in Auto Production; Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments in Play

Posted: 14 Aug 2015 10:41 AM PDT

Industrial Production Jumps

Industrial production numbers for July, released today, beat the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of 0.4% by 0.2 percentage points.

However, June industrial production was revised lower by 0.2 percentage points from 0.3% to 0.1%. Moreover, June manufacturing was revised to -0.3% from an initial reading of 0.0%.
A 10.6 percent surge in motor vehicle production gave a very significant lift to industrial production which rose 0.6 percent in July. The manufacturing component, which has been flat all year, jumped 0.8 percent. Excluding vehicles, however, manufacturing rose only 0.1 percent. The lack of strength here is the result of business equipment which edged only 0.1 percent higher after declining 0.2 percent in June.

The rise in production drove capacity utilization up 3 tenths to 78.0 percent which is where it was back in April. Capacity utilization for manufacturing rose 5 tenths to 76.2 percent.

The two non-manufacturing components are mixed. Production at utilities, due to July's cool weather, fell 1.0 percent with capacity utilization down 8 tenths to 79.1 percent, while mining production rose 0.2 percent with capacity utilization down 1 tenth to 84.4 percent.

Weak foreign demand and weakness in the energy sector may be hurting much of the industrial sector but these factors are not at play in the domestic auto industry. The readings in today's report are mixed but the headline gain, driven by the convincing strength for autos, is an eye catcher and will certainly be ammunition for the hawks at next month's FOMC meeting.
Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments in Play

The revisions lower last month followed by the surge this month suggests some significant seasonal adjustments and/or one-time production shifts in play.



Auto Production Strength Cannot Last

Autos remain in the spotlight. But record, or near-record auto sales cannot last forever. Today's strength will be tomorrow's weakness.

When auto sales turn for good, the resultant numbers will likely be shockingly bad.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


5 facts about the friendship between coffee and poop [Infographic]

Posted: 14 Aug 2015 06:41 PM PDT

You've probably noticed that after you drink a cup of coffee you immediately feel the need to go to the bathroom. Now you're going to find out what exactly is going on internally after you drink your morning cup of coffee.

Click on Image to Enlarge.



via ilovecoffee

When Expectations Face Off Against Reality, Reality Always Wins

Posted: 14 Aug 2015 06:13 PM PDT

If you're hoping for your expectations to match reality, you're doing nothing but filling yourself with false hope.























Architects are actually trying to build ‘Minas Tirith’ from ‘Lord of the Rings’

Posted: 14 Aug 2015 06:06 PM PDT

A group of Architects out of Great Britain have started one of the craziest crowdfunding campaigns yet. Their goal is to raise £1.85 billion which is roughly $2.9 billion U.S. dollars. While it is highly unlikely that this goal will be reached in the remaining 48 days of the campaign, we can dream, right? So far, they have only raised about $3,600 bucks, but you never know, there may be some people with some serious cash who really want to see this happen.

Their plan is to create a full-scale replica of Minas Tirith from Lord of the Rings as depicted in the Peter Jackson film adaptations. Not only will this be a place for visitors to come and see, it will be a fully functioning city where people can live and work. The will need about $23.5 million for the land, $294 million for labor, and $218 billion for materials.

The current goal is to build 645 homes within Minas Tirith ranging from 2-Star one bedroom homes ($625,000) to Luxury 4 bedroom penthouses ($2.7 Million). The homes will range in quality from 2-5 stars depending on the buyer's budget.

If the fundraising goal is met, then construction on the new city will begin by the end of 2016 and finish up around the end of 2023. They are looking at two different locations in Southern England to build this insane new project.















Why No One Pays Attention to Your Marketing - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Why No One Pays Attention to Your Marketing - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

Ever mass-deleted a bunch of impersonal emails from your inbox? Brand fatigue is a real threat to your marketing strategy. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand discusses why brands become "background noise" and how you can avoid it.

Why No One Pays Attention to Your Marketing - The Painful Pitfall of Brand Fatigue Whiteboard Friday

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard. Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat a little bit about why no one is paying attention to your brand, to your marketing. It's the perilous pitfall of brand fatigue.

Brand fatigue sucks

So you have all had this happen to you. I promise you have. It's happened in your email. It's happened in your social streams. It's happened through advertising in the real world, online and offline.

I'll give you an illustration. So I sign up for this newsletter. I decide, "Hey, I want to get some houseplants. My house has no greenery in it." So I sign up for Green Dude Houseplants' newsletter. What do I get? Well, I get a, "Welcome to Our Newsletter." Oh, okay.

And then maybe the next day I get, "Meet Our New Hires." Meet our new hires? I'm sure that your new hires are very important to you and your team, but I just got introduced to your brand. I'm not sure I care that much. To me, you're all new hires. You might as well be, right? I don't know you or the team yet.

"Best Summer Ever Event," okay, maybe, maybe an event. "Edible Backyard Gardens, you know, I don't have a backyard. I was signing up for a houseplant newsletter because it was in my house. "See Us at the Garden Show," I don't want to go to the garden show. I was going to buy from you. That's why I'm online.

Okay, thanks.

How to cause brand fatigue

It's not just the value of the messaging. It's the frequency that it happens at. You've seen this. I'm on an email list that I signed up for, I think it's called FounderDating. It's here in Seattle. I think it's in San Francisco. I thought it was a really cool idea when I signed up for it. Then I have just been inundated with messages from them. I think some of them are actually worthy of my participation, like I should have gone to the forum. I should have replied. I should have checked out what this particular person wanted. But I get so much email from them that I've just begun to hit Delete as soon as I get it.

We've actually had this problem at Moz too. If you're a Moz subscriber, you probably get a new email every time a new crawl is completed, and a campaign is set up, and you have new rankings data. Some of that's really important, right? Like if you're paying attention to this particular site's rankings and you want to see every time you get an update, well yeah, you need that email. But it's actually kind of tough to opt in to which ones you want and with what frequency and control it all from one place.

We have found that our email open rates, engagement rates have actually drifted way, way down over time because, probably, we've inundated you with so much email. This is a big mistake that Moz has made in our email marketing, but a lot of brands make it in tons of places. So I want to help you avoid that.

1) Too many messages on a medium

Brand fatigue happens when there are too many messages, just too many raw messages on a medium. You start to see the same brand, the same name, the same person again and again. Their logo, their colors, the association you have, it just becomes background noise. Your brain goes into this mode where it just filters it out because it can't handle the volume of stuff that's coming through. It needs a filtration mechanism. So it starts to identify and associate your brand or your logo or your name or a person's name with "filter." Filter that out. That goes in the background.

2) Value provided is too low or infrequent to deserve attention

It also happens when the value provided is too low or too infrequent to deserve attention. So this might be what I'm talking about with FounderDating. One out of every maybe five or six messages, I'm like, "Oh yeah, that was interesting. I should pay attention to that." But when it becomes too infrequent, that same filtration happens.

Too few of the high value messages means you're not going to pay attention, you're not going to engage with that brand, with that company anymore. All of us marketers will see that in the engagement rates. No matter the medium, we can look at our numbers and see that those are going down on a percentile basis, and that gets really frustrating.

3) The messaging can't be effectively tuned or controlled by the user

So this is the problem that Moz is having where we don't have that one email control center where you say how often you want exactly which messages updating you of which notifications about which campaigns, and newsletter and da, da, da. So your message frequency is either all the time high or very high and so you're, "I don't like any of those options."

Very frustrating.

How NOT to cause brand fatigue

Now, I do have some solutions and suggestions. But it's platform by platform.

Email

Start very conservative with your email marketing and highly personal. In fact, I would actually recommend personally sending all the messages out to your first few hundred users if you possibly can, because you will get a great rapport that you develop individually with person by person. That will give you a sense for what your audiences like and what kind of messaging they prefer, and they'll know they can reply directly to you.

You'll create that highly-engaged experience through email that will mean that, as you scale, you have the experience from the past to tell you how often you can and can't email people, what they care about and don't, what they filter and don't, what they're looking for from you, etc. You can then watch your open, unsubscribe and engagement rates through your email program. No matter what program you might be using, you can almost always see these.

Then you can watch for, "Oh, we had a spike." That spike is a good thing. That means that people were highly engaged on this email. Let's figure out what resonated there. Let's go talk to folks. Let's reach out to the people who engaged with it and just say, "Hey, why did you love this? What did you love about it? What can we do to give you more value like this?"

Or you watch for dips. Then you can say, "Oh man, the last three email newsletters that we've sent out, we've seen successive declines in engagement and open rates, and we've seen a rise in unsubscribe rates. We're doing something wrong. What's going on? What's the root cause? Is it who we're acquiring? Is it new people that signed up, or is it old-timers who are getting frustrated with the new stuff we're sending out? Does this fit with our strategy? What can we fix?"

Be careful. The thing that sucks about brand fatigue is a lot of platforms, email included, have systems, algorithmic systems set up to penalize you for this. With email, if you get high unsubscribes and low engagement, that will actually kill your long-term chances for email marketing success, because Gmail and Yahoo Mail and Microsoft's various mail programs and whatever installed mail your targets might have, whatever they're using, you will no longer be able to break through those email filters.

The email filter that Gmail has says, "Hey, a lot of people click Unsubscribe and Report Spam. Let's put this in the Promotions tab." Or, "Hey, a lot of people are clicking Report Spam. You know what? Let's just block this sender entirely." Or, "Gosh, this person has in the past not engaged very much with these messages. We're going to not make them high priority anymore." Gmail has that automatic high priority system. So you're getting algorithmically turned into noise even if you might have had something that your customers really cared about.

Blog or other content platform

This is a really interesting one. I would strongly urge you to read Trevor Klein from Moz's blog post about the experiment that we and HubSpot did around how much content to produce and whether lowering content or increasing content had positive effects. There are some fascinating results from that study.

But the valuable thing to me in that is if you don't test, you'll never know. You'll never know the limits of what your audience wants, what will frustrate them, what will delight them. I recommend you don't create content unless you can have a great answer for the question, "Who will help amplify this and why?" I don't mean, like, "Oh, well I think people who really like houseplants will help amplify this." That's not a great answer.

A great answer is, "Oh, you know, I know this guy named Jerry. Jerry runs a Twitter account that's all about gardening. Jerry loves our houseplants. He's a big fan of this. He's particularly interested in flowering cacti. I know if we publish this post, Jerry will help amplify it." That's a great answer. You have 10 Jerrys, great. Hit Publish. Go for it. You don't? Why are you making it?

Watch your browse rate, your conversion rate, and conversion rate.... I don't mean necessarily all the way to whatever you're selling, your ecommerce store products or your subscription or whatever that is. Conversion rate could be conversion rate to an email newsletter or to following you on a social platform or whatever.

You can watch time on site and amplification per post to essentially get a sense for like, "Hey, as we're producing content, are we seeing the metrics that would indicate that our content marketing is being successful?" If the answer to that is no, well we need to retool it. It turns out there's actually no prize for hitting Publish.

You might think that your job as a content producer or a content marketer is to make content every day or content every week. That's not your job. Your job is to have success with the metrics that are going to predict and correlate to the strategies you need as a business to acquire customers, to grow your marketing channels, to grow your brand's impact, to help people, whatever it is that your mission is.

I highly recommend finding your audiences' sweet spot for both focus and frequency. If you do those things, you're going to do a great job with avoiding brand fatigue around your content.

Twitter, Facebook, and other social media

Last one is social. I'll talk specifically about Twitter and Facebook, because most things can be classified in there, even things like Instagram and LinkedIn and the fading, sadly, Google+ and those sorts of things.

Twitter, generally speaking, more forgiving as a platform. Facebook has more of those algorithmic elements to punish you for low engagement.

So, for example, I've had this happen on my personal Facebook page where I've published a few things that people just didn't really find interesting. This is on my Rand Fishkin Facebook page, different from the Moz one. It turns out that that meant that it was much harder for me next time, even with content that people were very engaged around, to reach them.

Facebook essentially had pushed in. They were like, "You know what? That's three or four posts in a row from Rand Fishkin that people did not like, didn't engage with. The next one we're going to set the bar much higher for him to have to climb back up before we decide, 'Hey, we'll show that to more and more people.'"

Lately I've been having more success getting a higher percentage of my audience into the impression count of people who are actually seeing my posts on Facebook by getting better engagement there. But that's a very challenging platform.

Users of both, however, are pretty sensitive, nearly equally sensitive. It's not like Facebook users are more sensitive. It's just that Facebook's platform is more sensitive because Facebook doesn't show you all the content you could possibly see.

Twitter is just a super simplistic newsfeed algorithm. It's just, who posted last. So Twitter has that real time kind of thing. So I would still say for both of these, aim to only share stuff that gets high engagement, especially as your brand.

Personal account, do whatever you want, test whatever you want. But as your brand's account, you want that high engagement over and over again because that will predict more people paying attention to you when you do post, going back and looking through your old social posts, subscribing to you, following you, all that sort of thing, considering you a leader.

You can watch both Twitter Analytics and your Facebook page's stats to see if you're having a dip or a spike, where you're having success, where you're not.

I actually love using Twitter and a little bit LinkedIn or Google+ to see what gets very high engagement and then I know, "Okay, I should re-share that on Twitter because my audience on Twitter is very temporal." Two hours from now it's going to be less than 1% overlap between who sees a Twitter post now and who sees a Twitter post 2 hours from now, and that's a great test bed for Facebook as well.

So if I see something doing extremely well on Twitter or on Google+ or on LinkedIn, I go, "Aha, that's the kind of thing I should post on Facebook. That will increase my engagement there. Now I can go post and get more engagement next time and build up my authority in Facebook's newsfeed algorithm.

So with all of this stuff, hopefully, as you're producing content, sharing content, building an email subscription, building a blog platform, you're going to have a little less brand fatigue and a little more engagement from your users.

I look forward to chatting with you all in the comments. We'll see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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