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Seth's Blog : Fired up
Fired up
A friend was in a meeting with a few colleagues when my latest book came up.
One person said, "After I finished it, I was all fired up, and I felt like quitting my job to go do something amazing."
The other one said, "That's funny. After I finished it, I was all fired up and I couldn't wait to come to work to do something amazing."
Fired up isn't something you can count on, but it's certainly possibly to create a job, an opportunity and a series of inputs and feedback that makes it more likely that people get that way.
And fired up sometimes drives people to do amazing work with you, especially if you've built a job description and an organization that can take that energy and turn it into work that matters.
Give people (give yourself) projects that can take all the magic and energy and enthusiasm they want to give.
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sâmbătă, 15 august 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| BLS vs.Gallup Unemployment Rate - Massive Discrepancies Posted: 15 Aug 2015 10:17 AM PDT The Gallup Daily U.S. Employment , poll estimates unemployment at 6.3% and underemployment at 14.5%.  Gallup cautions: "Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point." Actually the numbers can be compared. All one has to do is use the BLS non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Civilian Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted  Gallup estimates the unemployment rate at 6.3% but the BLS says 5.6%. If anything, the BLS number should be higher than Gallup. Why? Because Gallup surveys those 18 and older whereas the BLS surveys 16 and older. Given high youth-unemployment, any BLS bias should be higher, not lower. Underemployment And please check out the massive difference in underemployment. The BLS says 10.7% while Gallup says 14.5%!  Sampling Gallup uses a 30-day rolling average, not seasonally adjusted, and samples 30,000 people for their rolling-average numbers. The Gallup numbers are more believable than the BLS numbers. Finally, for comparison purposes, the University of Michigan sentiment survey does a one-time sample a mere 500 people on which it allegedly measures spending habits and the economic health of the entire nation. For my take on sentiment, please see Sentiment as a Measure of Health of the Economy; Sentiment Theory vs. Practice. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Weekend Humor: Safety First - Image of a German, a Greek, and the IMF Designing a Rescue Posted: 15 Aug 2015 09:35 AM PDT Here's an image I picked up from Guru Huky at Guru's Blog.  The translated title of Guru's post is "A German, a Greek, and the IMF Designing a Rescue". This is humorous but not quite Darwin Award material. Double Darwin Award!More Darwin Awards Also consider "The Ring Thing" and "Natural Birth Control", the latter was another double-Darwin award. A nice 2013 Darwin Award winner involves an Elevator Death in which a man forced open the doors of an elevator on the 7th floor, jumped out to the cables to slide down, and died in the ensuing crash. His estate filed a losing lawsuit against the elevator manufacturer after exhuming his body 18 months later. The person in question had voluntarily swallowed a mix of decision-impairing substances bringing his BAC [blood alcohol concentration] to 0.17% with a Xanax chaser. Unfamiliar with Xanax, this writer thumbed through the Urban Dictionary and found Xanax described as one of the more addictive benzos with withdrawal effects including psychosis and epileptic-type seizures.As readers may have guessed, men are far more likely than women to win Darwin Awards. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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Seth's Blog : Pattern matching
Pattern matching
If it was a good idea to do X, then it's a good idea to do Y.
When this statement is true, it's almost irresistible. Not the obvious similarities on the surface, but the deep comparisons, the resonant influences, the patterns that a trained insider sees.
That's what makes a VC or an HR person appear to be a genius. They find useful patterns and they match them.
The problem is that marketers often force the comparison, because we're so eager to get people to do Y, our Y, the Y we have in hand. So we focus on the surface stuff, insisting that people follow the obvious pattern from their X to our Y.
Instead of running around with your product looking for customers, perhaps you could figure out who the customers are and build a product for them instead.
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