miercuri, 2 septembrie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Epic Fight Between Venomous Snake And World’s Most Poisonous Fish

Posted: 02 Sep 2015 03:14 PM PDT

A fisherman has captured the moment a killer sea snake and extremely venomous stonefish locked jaws in a fierce battle to the death.























Useless Life Skills That No One Can Teach You

Posted: 02 Sep 2015 01:27 PM PDT

























Scary Muzzle That Turns Any Dog Into A Beast

Posted: 02 Sep 2015 12:12 PM PDT

This muzzle from Russia can turn any friendly dog into a beast.














A Beginner's Guide to Google Search Console - Moz Blog

A Beginner's Guide to Google Search Console

Posted by Angela_Petteys

If the name "Google Webmaster Tools" rings a bell for you, then you might already have an idea of what Google Search Console is. Since Google Webmaster Tools (GWT) has become a valuable resource for so many different types of people besides webmasters—marketing professionals, SEOs, designers, business owners, and app developers, to name a few—Google decided to change its name in May of 2015 to be more inclusive of its diverse group of users.

If you aren't familiar with GWT or Google Search Console, let's head back to square one. Google Search Console is a free service that lets you learn a great deal of information about your website and the people who visit it. You can use it to find out things like how many people are visiting your site and how they are finding it, whether more people are visiting your site on a mobile device or desktop computer, and which pages on your site are the most popular. It can also help you find and fix website errors, submit a sitemap, and create and check a robots.txt file.

Ready to start taking advantage of all that Google Search Console has to offer? Let's do this.

Adding and verifying a site in Google Search Console

If you're new to Google Search Console, you'll need to add and verify your site(s) before you can do anything else. Adding and verifying your site in Search Console proves to Google that you're either a site's owner, webmaster, or other authorized user. After all, Search Console provides you with all sorts of incredibly detailed information and insights about a site's performance. Google doesn't want to hand that kind of information over to anybody who asks for it.

Adding a site to Search Console is a very simple process. First, log into your Search Console account. Once you're logged in, you'll see a box next to a red button which says "Add Property."

Add a Site to Search Console.png

Enter the URL of the site you're trying to add in the box and click "Add Property." Congratulations, your site is now added to your Search Console account!

Next, you will be asked to verify your site. There are a few different ways you can go about this. Which method will work best for you depends on whether or not you have experience working with HTML, if you have access to upload files to the site, the size of your site, and whether or not you have other Google programs connected to your site. If this sounds overwhelming, don't worry—we'll help you figure it out.

Adding an HTML tag

This verification method is best for users and site owners who have experience working with HTML code.

Manage Property.png

From the Search Console dashboard, select "Manage Property," then "Verify this property." If the "HTML Tag" option does not appear under "Recommended method," then you should click on the "Alternate methods" tab and select "HTML tag." This will provide you with the HTML code you'll need for verification.

Verify HTML Tag Edit.png

Copy the code and use your HTML editor to open the code for your site's homepage. Paste the code provided within in the section of the HTML code. If your site already has a meta tag or other code in the section, it doesn't matter where the verification code is placed in relation to the other code; it simply needs to be in the section. If your site doesn't have a section, you can create one for the sake of verifying the site.

Once the verification code has been added, save and publish the updated code, and open your site's homepage. From there, view the site's source code. The verification code should be visible in the section.

Once you're sure the code is added to your site's homepage, go back to Search Console and click "Verify." Google will then check your site's code for the verification code. If the code is found, you will see a screen letting you know the site has been verified. If not, you will be provided with information about the errors it encountered.

When your site has been verified by Search Console, do not remove the verification code from your site. If the code is removed, it will cause your site to become unverified.

Uploading an HTML file

To use this method, you must be able to upload files to a site's root directory.

From the Search Console dashboard, select "Manage site," then "Verify this site." If "HTML file upload" is not listed under "Recommended method," it should be listed under the "Alternate method" tab. HTML File Method.png

When you select this method, you will be asked to download an HTML file. Download it, then upload it to the specified location. Do not make any changes to the content of the file or the filename; the file needs to be kept exactly the same. If it is changed, Search Console will not be able to verify the site.

After the HTML file has been uploaded, go back to Search Console and click "Verify." If everything has been uploaded correctly, you will see a page letting you know the site has been verified.

Once you have verified your site using this method, do not delete the HTML file from your site. This will cause your site to become unverified.

Verifying via domain name provider

The domain name provider is the company you purchased a domain from or where your website is hosted. When you verify using your domain name provider, it not only proves you're the owner of the main domain, but that you also own all of the subdomains and subdirectories associated with it. This is an excellent option if you have a large website.

From the Search Console dashboard, select "Manage site," then "Verify this site." If you don't see the "Domain name provider" option listed under "Recommended method," look under the "Alternate method" tab.

Domain Name Provider Method.png

When you select "Domain name provider," you will be asked to choose your domain name provider from a list of commonly used providers, such as GoDaddy.com. If your provider is not on this list, choose "Other" and you will be given instructions on how to create a DNS TXT record for your provider. If a DNS TXT record doesn't work for your provider, you will have the option of creating a CNAME record instead.

Adding Google Analytics code

If you already use Google Analytics (GA) to monitor your site's traffic, this could be the easiest option for you. But first, you'll need to be able to check the site's HTML code to make sure the GA tracking code is placed within the section of your homepage's code, not in the section. If the GA code is not already in the section, you'll need to move it there for this method to work.

From the Search Console dashboard, select "Manage site," then "Verify this site." If you don't see the "Google Analytics tracking code" option under the "Recommended method," look under the "Alternate method" tab. When you select "Google Analytics tracking method," you'll be provided with a series of instructions to follow.

Google Analytics Code Method 2.png

Once your site has been verified, do not remove the GA code from your site, or it will cause your site to become unverified.

Using Google Tag Manager

If you already use Google Tag Manager (GTM) for your site, this might be the easiest way to verify your site. If you're going to try this method, you need to have "View, Edit, and Manage" permissions enabled for your account in GTM. Before trying this method, look at your site's HTML code to make sure the GTM code is placed immediately after your site's tag.

From the Search Console dashboard, select "Manage site," then "Verify this site." If you don't see the "Google Tag Manager" option listed under "Recommended method," it should appear under "Alternate method."

Google Tag Manager Method.png

Select "Google Tag Manager" and click "Verify." If the Google Tag Manager code is found, you should see a screen letting you know your site has been verified.

Once your site is verified, do not remove the GTM code from your site, or your site will become unverified.

How to link Google Analytics with Google Search Console

Google Analytics and Google Search Console might seem like they offer the same information, but there are some key differences between these two Google products. GA is more about who is visiting your site—how many visitors you're getting, how they're getting to your site, how much time they're spending on your site, and where your visitors are coming from (geographically-speaking). Google Search Console, in contrast, is geared more toward more internal information—who is linking to you, if there is malware or other problems on your site, and which keyword queries your site is appearing for in search results . Analytics and Search Console also do not treat some information in the exact same ways, so even if you think you're looking at the same report, you might not be getting the exact same information in both places.

To get the most out of the information provided by Search Console and GA, you can link accounts for each one together. Having these two tools linked will integrate the data from both sources to provide you with additional reports that you will only be able to access once you've done that. So, let's get started:

Has your site been added and verified in Search Console? If not, you'll need to do that before you can continue.

From the Search Console dashboard, click on the site you're trying to connect. In the upper righthand corner, you'll see a gear icon. Click on it, then choose "Google Analytics Property."

Google Analytics Property.jpg

This will bring you to a list of Google Analytics accounts associated with your Google account. All you have to do is choose the desired GA account and hit "Save." Easy, right? That's all it takes to start getting the most out of Search Console and Analytics.

Adding a sitemap

Sitemaps are files that give search engines and web crawlers important information about how your site is organized and the type of content available there. Sitemaps can include metadata, with details about your site such as information about images and video content, and how often your site is updated.

By submitting your sitemap to Google Search Console, you're making Google's job easier by ensuring they have the information they need to do their job more efficiently. Submitting a sitemap isn't mandatory, though, and your site won't be penalized if you don't submit a sitemap. But there's certainly no harm in submitting one, especially if your site is very new and not many other sites are linking to it, if you have a very large website, or your if site has many pages that aren't thoroughly linked together.

Before you can submit a sitemap to Search Console, your site needs to be added and verified in Search Console. If you haven't already done so, go ahead and do that now.

From your Search Console dashboard, select the site you want to submit a sitemap for. On the left, you'll see an option called "Crawl." Under "Crawl," there will be an option marked "Sitemaps."

Crawl Sitemap.png

Click on "Sitemaps." There will be a button marked "Add/Test Sitemap" in the upper righthand corner.

Add Test Sitemap 4.png

This will bring up a box with a space to add text to it.

Add Test Sitemap Submit.png

Type "system/feeds/sitemap" in that box and hit "Submit sitemap." Congratulations, you have now submitted a sitemap!

Checking a robots.txt file

Having a website doesn't necessarily mean you want to have all of its pages or directories indexed by search engines. If there are certain things on your site you'd like to keep out of search engines, you can accomplish this by using a robots.txt file. A robots.txt file placed in the root of your site tells search engine robots (i.e., web crawlers) what you do and do not want indexed by using commands known as the robots Exclusion Standard.

It's important to note that robots.txt files aren't necessarily guaranteed to be 100% effective in keeping things away from web crawlers. The commands in robots.txt files are instructions, and although the crawlers used by credible search engines like Google will accept them, it's entirely possible that a less reputable crawler will not. It's also entirely possible for different web crawlers to interpret commands differently. Robots.txt files also will not stop other websites from linking to your content, even if you don't want it indexed.

If you want to check your robots.txt file to see exactly what it is and isn't allowing, log into Search Console and select the site whose robots.txt file you want to check. Haven't already added or verified your site in Search Console? Do that first.

Search Console Crawl Robots 2.png

On the lefthand side of the screen, you'll see the option "Crawl." Click on it and choose "robots.txt Tester." The Robots.txt Tester Tool will let you look at your robots.txt file, make changes to it, and it alert you about any errors it finds. You can also choose from a selection of Google's user-agents (names for robots/crawlers) and enter a URL you wish to allow/disallow, and run a test to see if the URL is recognized by that crawler.

Robots txt Tester Tool.png

If you make any changes to your robots.txt file using Google's robots.txt tester, the changes will not be automatically reflected in the robots.txt file hosted on your site. Luckily, it's pretty easy to update it yourself. Once your robots.txt file is how you want it, hit the "Submit" button underneath the editing box in the lower righthand corner. This will give you the option to download your updated robots.txt file. Simply upload that to your site in the same directory where your old one was (www.example.com/robots.txt). Obviously, the domain name will change, but your robots.txt file should always be named "robots.txt" and the file needs to be saved in the root of your domain, not www.example.com/somecategory/robots.txt.

Back on the robots.txt testing tool, hit "Verify live version" to make sure the correct file is on your site. Everything correct? Good! Click "Submit live version" to let Google know you've updated your robots.txt file and they should crawl it. If not, re-upload the new robots.txt file to your site and try again.

Fetch as Google and submit to index

If you've made significant changes to a website, the fastest way to get the updates indexed by Google is to submit it manually. This will allow any changes done to things such as on-page content or title tags to appear in search results as soon as possible.

The first step is to sign into Google Search Console. Next, select the page you need to submit. If the website does not use the 'www.' prefix, then make sure you click on the entry without it (or vice versa.)

On the lefthand side of the screen, you should see a "Crawl" option. Click on it, then choose "Fetch as Google."

Fetch as Google Edit.png

Clicking on "Fetch as Google" should bring you to a screen that looks something like this:

Fetch as Google 2.png

If you need to fetch the entire website (such as after a major site-wide update, or if the homepage has had a lot of remodeling done) then leave the center box blank. Otherwise, use it to enter the full address of the page you need indexed, such as http://example.com/category. Once you enter the page you need indexed, click the "Fetch and Render" button. Fetching might take a few minutes, depending on the number/size of pages being fetched.

After the indexing has finished, there will be a "Submit to Index" button that appears in the results listing at the bottom (near the "Complete" status). You will be given the option to either "Crawl Only This URL," which is the option you want if you're only fetching/submitting one specific page, or "Crawl This URL and its Direct Links," if you need to index the entire site.

Click this, wait for the indexing to complete, and you're done! Google now has sent its search bots to catalog the new content on your page, and the changes should appear in Google within the next few days.

Site errors in Google Search Console

Nobody wants to have something wrong on their website, but sometimes you might not realize there's a problem unless someone tells you. Instead of waiting for someone to tell you about a problem, Google Search Console can immediately notify you of any errors it finds on on your site.

If you want to check a site for internal errors, select the site you'd like to check. On the lefthand side of the screen, click on "Crawl," then select "Crawl Errors."

Site Errors Tool.png

You will then be taken directly to the Crawl Errors page, which displays any site or URL errors found by Google's bots while indexing the page. You will see something like this:

Errors Page.png

Any URL errors found will be displayed at the bottom. Click on any of the errors for a description of the error encountered and further details.

Error Details.png

Record any encountered errors, including screenshots if appropriate. If you aren't responsible for handling site errors, notify the person who is so they can correct the problem(s).

We hope this guide has been helpful in acquainting you with Google Search Console. Now that everything is set up and verified, you can start taking in all the information that Google Search Console has for you.


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Seth's Blog : No one knows

No one knows

No one knows the right answer, no one knows precisely what will happen, no one can produce the desired future, on demand.

Some people are better at guessing than others, but not by much.

The people who are supposed to know rejected Harry Potter, Tracy Chapman and the Beatles. The people who are supposed to know sell stocks just before they go up, and give us rules of thumb that don't pan out.

If you mistakenly believe that there's someone who knows, you're likely to decide that whoever that person it is, it's not you.

And if it's not you, what a great reason to hesitate.

In fact, the gap isn't between the people who know and those that don't. It's between the people who show up with their best work, and those that hold back. 

       

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marți, 1 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Fed Apologist Ritholtz Interviews Fed Apologist McCulley

Posted: 01 Sep 2015 10:17 PM PDT

Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz interviewed Paul McCulley, former chief economist at PIMCO, and often mentioned FOMC candidate on the Fed's performance.

The Podcast is over two hours long, so let's just go with Ritholtz's brief summary: McCulley Demands Apology on Behalf of the Fed.
McCulley noted those who claimed QE and ZIRP were going to cause inflation and the collapse of the dollar were totally wrong, and he demanded these critics of the Federal Reserve owe former Ben Bernanke an apology. Had the Fed Chief listened to them, we would have found ourselves in a modern day depression.

He is leery of those who believe the Government and Federal Reserve should have let the crisis run its course on its own, with zero interventions. He is especially harsh on the Austerians, whom he said made the recovery weaker than it need be by thwarting traditional Keynesian stimulus.

The full podcast is available on iTunes, SoundCloud and on Bloomberg.
Rebuttal

In a blend of a monetarist and Keynesian thinking, McCulley supports Fed policies of QE and is "especially harsh on the Austerians, whom he said made the recovery weaker than it need be by thwarting traditional Keynesian stimulus."

For starters, I dispute the notion that without QE and intervention that "we would have found ourselves in a modern day depression" as Ritholtz maintains. Ritholtz's claim is a poorly-formed hypothesis presented as fact.

Yes, it's true that many in the Austrian camp predicted a dollar crash and high inflation. But I am in the Austrian camp camp and debt deflation has been my model, and still is my model.

As for an apology, what about an apology from the Fed for blowing serial bubble after bubble of increasing amplitude?

It's inane to demand an apology from those who warned in advance, and correctly so, of the housing bubble and subsequent crash.

In a twist of irony, McCulley gloats over the alleged lack of inflation, but it's pretty clear he has his blinders on as to what inflation is and ways it can be spotted. In the case of Fed policy, inflation did not manifest itself in the CPI, but rather in asset bubbles, again and again.

Challenge to Keynesians

Only Keynesian and Monetarist fools (there is no more polite word), believe a low CPI is a big concern.

I repeat my Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit".

Consumer Price Deflation NOT Damaging

Even the BIS has concluded that routine consumer price deflation is no threat. For details, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Income Inequality and Leverage

China and the emerging markets are imploding right now. Leverage is as high as ever. Fed policy induced corporations to go into debt to buy back their own shares at absurd prices.

Janet Yellen pisses and moans about income inequality, as does Ritholtz. Both are blind to the fact the Fed is the direct sponsor of it all.

Unfounded Gloat

This Keynesian gloat about the Fed saving the world is laughable because the final chapter has not been written. Assets are arguably as overpriced now as they were in 2000, and 2007. As with Japan, another lost decade in the US is likely.

Demanding an apology on behalf of the Fed is like demanding an apology on behalf of a doctor who cuts off the wrong leg of a cancerous patient if the doctor gets it right the second time.

It's the Fed that owes us all an apology.

Barry, Paul, where the hell is that apology?

But Keynesians and Monetarists don't apologize. They just demand more and more stimulus and debt in the inane belief the cure for a debt problem is more spending and more debt.

The average 7th grader can easily see the fallacies of such nonsense.

Unfortunately, as students progress through high school and college, repeated brainwashing by professors in academic wonderland about the alleged benefits of easy money has warped a lot of minds, in this case, the minds of the interviewer and the interviewee.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Investigating Consumer Confidence: 3-Month Low? 10-Month Low? Near Record High?

Posted: 01 Sep 2015 11:05 AM PDT

Last week, three different measures of consumer confidence came out:

  1. University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment 
  2. Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Level 
  3. Gallup: Economic Confidence Index

Claim of Importance

Bloomberg states "Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending."

Let's investigate that claim starting with a look at the latest results from each survey. 

Consumer Confidence

On August 25, the Conference Board's "Consumer Confidence Level" soared well ahead of any Bloomberg Consensus estimate with a reading Bloomberg stated "will have forecasters scratching their heads."
Enormous improvement in the assessment of the current labor market drove the consumer confidence index well beyond expectations, to 101.5 in August for a more than 10 point surge from July. A rare 6.5 percentage point drop to 21.9 percent in those describing jobs as currently hard to get points to outsized gains for the August employment report. This reading will have forecasters scratching their heads. The gain for this reading lifts the present situation component to 115.1 for a more than 11 point increase from July that points to consumer power for August.

The Yellen Fed has put great emphasis on the importance on consumer confidence readings and this report points to job-driven strength ahead for household spending.
Head-Scratching Sentiment

Three days later, the University of Michigan release was another head-scratching event. Bloomberg reported Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Declines to a Three-Month Low.

The University of Michigan sentiment number came in at 91.9, well below any guess in Bloomberg's Consensus Estimate Range of 92.7 to 95.0.
An early reading on the effect of global volatility is downbeat as the consumer sentiment index came in well below expectations, at 91.9 for the final August reading. The mid-month reading was 92.9 which roughly implies a pace near 91.0 over the last two weeks which is the softest since May.
Consumer Sentiment




Belief vs. Reality

In regards to consumer confidence, Bloomberg stated "The Yellen Fed has put great emphasis on the importance on consumer confidence readings and this report points to job-driven strength ahead for household spending."

Let's compare Yellen's belief to reality. Bloomberg conveniently provided this chart.



Here's a chart I put together last month on sentiment and sales.

University of Michigan Sentiment vs. Sales



To be fair, one needs to look at per capita spending and factor in boomer dynamics such as aging, etc. However, I do not have access to the conference board data, and the University of Michigan data on Fred is out of date.

Let's consider one more measure of sentiment.

Gallup Economic Confidence Index

On July 28, Gallup reported U.S. Economic Confidence Index Continues Downward, at -14.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index continued its gradual, downward slide, reaching -14 for the week ending July 26. This represents a 10-month low for the index.

Last week's figure continues the generally downward trend that began in late January. At that point, the index peaked at +5 -- the highest weekly score Gallup has recorded since it began tracking economic confidence daily in 2008. Weekly figures have consistently been in negative territory since mid-March and have drifted gradually lower in recent months.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate the current economy and whether they feel the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, if all Americans rate the economy as excellent or good and improving; and a theoretical minimum of -100, if all Americans rate the economy as poor and getting worse.

The current conditions score fell four points from the week prior to its current score of -9, accounting for the entire decline in the overall index. This was the result of 23% of Americans saying the economy is "excellent" or "good" and 32% saying it is "poor." Meanwhile, 39% of Americans said the economy is "getting better," while 57% said it is "getting worse." This resulted in an economic outlook score of -18, unchanged from the previous week.
Gallup Economic Confidence



Polling Methods

  1. Gallup: "Gallup is based on telephone interviews conducted July 20-26, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 3,540 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia."
  2. Conference Board: "The Consumer Confidence Survey uses an address-based mail sample design. The CCS mailing is scheduled so that the questionnaires reach sample households on or about the first of each month. The targeted responding sample size—approximately 3,000 completed questionnaires—has remained essentially unchanged throughout the history of the CCI."
  3. University of Michigan: The group surveyed 64 more people than usual in August in order to better capture the reaction to the market events, according to Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan Survey of Consumers. Typically, 500 consumers are polled every month. 

Questions

  1. Do the difference in polling methods help explain the different results? 
  2. Is it possible those responding to mail-in campaigns are economically better off and more likely to take the time to respond than those in phone surveys
  3. Is survey language a factor? Reading comprehension?
  4. Do people give different answers on paper than they might over the phone?
  5. Is the University of Michigan sample size of 500 big enough to predict spending patterns for the entire nation?

Poll Comparison

  • Gallup "Economic Confidence" is at a 10-month low. 
  • University of Michigan "Consumer Sentiment" is at a 3-month low.
  • The Conference Board "Consumer Confidence Level" is at the second highest level in 8 years.

The surveys are so out of line with each other, it is impossible that "sentiment" matches spending, no matter how one adjusts the data.

In fact, the above charts are so screwy that one might wonder if it's possible to accurately measure sentiment at all.

Assuming sentiment can be measured (and we have three different surveys that purportedly do just that), the usefulness of such wildly differing surveys is not readily apparent.    

Yellen can believe what she wants, but faith in sentiment as a leading indicator or purveyor of future economic spending patterns is seriously questionable, at best.

Forced to select a single survey, I would go with a phone survey over a paper survey, and a large sample size over a smaller one - Gallup.

By the way, the University of Michigan and Gallup surveys are at least going the same direction this year. The Conference Board survey is the odd man out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

ISM Weaker Than Expected, Details Weak, Exports Contract Third Month

Posted: 01 Sep 2015 09:42 AM PDT

Those expecting a boost from the ISM report for August were disappointed today.

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate for ISM was 52.8, with a range of 51.5 to 54.0. The report was below any economist's expectation at 51.1.
The ISM index, at a lower-than-expected 51.1, is signaling the slowest rate of growth for the factory sector since May 2013. And the key details are uniformly weak.

New orders, at 51.7, are at one of the slowest rates of monthly growth of the recovery, since April 2013. Backlog orders, at 46.5, are in a third month of contraction. New export orders, at 46.5, are also in their third straight month of contraction and are at the lowest rate since July 2012.

ISM's sample wasn't hiring much in August, at 51.2 for a 1.5 point decline from July and the weakest reading since April. Production slowed and prices paid, at only a 39.0 level last since in March, points to deflationary pressures.

The good news for the economy is that this report failed to pick up the auto-led surge that lifted the factory sector noticeably in June and July. Still, the ISM is followed closely and will raise doubts, justifiably or not, over a September 17 rate hike.
ISM Details

Let's investigate all the details of today's report straight from the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® released this morning.

IndexAugJulPP ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend in Months
PMI®51.152.7-1.6GrowingSlower32
New Orders51.756.5-4.8GrowingSlower33
Production53.656.0-2.4GrowingSlower36
Employment51.252.7-1.5GrowingSlower4
Supplier Deliveries50.748.9+1.8SlowingFrom Faster1
Inventories48.549.5-1.0ContractingFaster2
Customers' Inventories53.044.0+9.0Too HighFrom Too Low1
Prices39.044.0-5.0DecreasingFaster10
Backlog of Orders46.542.5+4.0ContractingSlower3
Exports46.548.0-1.5ContractingFaster3
Imports51.552.0-0.5GrowingSlower31

Key Points

  • Backlog of orders are in contraction
  • Growth in new orders plunged but still positive
  • Customer inventories surged (not a good sign for future orders)
  • Exports contracting faster for the third month
  • Prices have plunged 

There's nothing in the ISM report to make the Fed want to hike, but the Fed will do what they want.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

China PMI Contracts Fastest Since February-March 2009

Posted: 01 Sep 2015 02:39 AM PDT

China manufacturing and services are both in contraction at the fastest rate since early 2009.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI shows operating conditions deteriorate at fastest rate since March 2009.
Chinese manufacturers saw the quickest deterioration in operating conditions for over six years in August, according to latest business survey data. Total new orders and new export business both declined at sharper rates than in July, and contributed to the most marked contraction of output since November 2011. Lower production requirements prompted companies to reduce their purchasing activity at the fastest rate since March 2009, while weaker client demand led to the first rise in stocks of finished goods in six months. Meanwhile, softer demand conditions contributed to marked falls in both input costs and output charges in August.
Key Points

  • Output contracts at quickest rate in 45 months as new business falls solidly
  • Purchasing activity declines at sharpest rate since March 2009
  • Input costs and output charges both fall at marked rates

China Manufacturing PMI



Composite Contracts Most Since February 2009

The bad news in China does not stop with manufacturing. Markit reports the Caixin China General Services PMI has the fastest contraction of output seen since February 2009.

Key points

  • Composite output and new orders both contract for the first time in 16 months
  • Job shedding intensifies at manufacturers, while employment rises only fractionally at service providers
  • Composite input costs and output charges continue to fall

By now it should be perfectly clear to everyone that the entire global economy is cooling and the US will not decouple from that slowdown. Nonetheless, most economists, including those at the Fed, still do not see the obvious.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock