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vineri, 18 septembrie 2015
This week's top Pins
joi, 17 septembrie 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Future Expectations Made Six Months Ago vs. Today's Reality
- Rate Hike Odds Shift to January 2016; 16.1% Chance of Hike in October
- Fed Wimps Out: Rates Unchanged: Life Support
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey "Something Very Wrong"
- Alternative ISM for Metalworking, Plastics, Composites Suggests Economic Contraction
| Future Expectations Made Six Months Ago vs. Today's Reality Posted: 17 Sep 2015 10:22 PM PDT On Thursday, I noted Bloomberg's comment "Something Very Wrong" with the manufacturing sector. More completely, Bloomberg stated "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast where the Empire State index has been in deep negative ground for the last two months followed now by a minus 6.0 headline for the Philly Fed index." With that comment, let's dig deeper into the latest Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. Here is a chart that shows current conditions compared to manufacturer's expectations six month's from now. Current vs. Future Activity  Future is Bright! The Philadelphia Fed reported ... Future Indexes Remained Generally OptimisticFuture Expectations vs. Reality To check the usefulness of these future projections, I downloaded the data, then shifted the look-ahead projections by six months and plotted those forecasts vs. current conditions.  The above chart shows what manufacturers expected six months ago vs. what actually happened. A major portion of the time, look-ahead sentiment vs. reality are inversely correlated. Note in particular, the sharp rise in expectations vs. the actual sharp decline (third purple box) that started in November or December of 2014. Northeast? As for Bloomberg's comment "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast" here are some thoughts also posted earlier.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Rate Hike Odds Shift to January 2016; 16.1% Chance of Hike in October Posted: 17 Sep 2015 02:57 PM PDT In the press conference following today's wimpy rate hike decision by the Fed, chair Janet Yellen responded to a reporter's question about the possibility of a hike in October. Yellen stated that October was still on the table because every meeting is a "live meeting", and if the Fed hiked it would conduct an impromptu press meeting following the decision. Her answer reflects the fact there is no scheduled press conference following the October meeting. What a joke. The market effectively laughed in her face. Not only does the market not see a hike in October, it does not see one in December either, in spite of the fact that Yellen stated the majority of the FOMC participants still see a hike this year. The CME Fedwatch sees things a bit differently. 16.1% Chance of Hike in October  45.3% Chance of Hike in December  Rate Hike Odds Discussion Bear in mind the CME odds represent quarter point hikes even though the Fed Fund Futures very slowly price in hikes of an eighth of a point. Fed Fund Future Calculations To arrive at an implied "30 day" average interest rate, subtract the "last" column in the table below from 100. Fed Fund Futures September 2015-March 2016  Looking at futures alone, not options, one has to go all the way out to January 2016 before the implied Fed Funds rate edges above 0.25%. Fed Fund Futures July 2016-January 2017  I suppose the next hike could be to 0.25-0.50% but then one does not see 0.50% happening until a July-August 2016 timeframe! The Fed Fund futures do not see rates getting as high as 0.75% until January 2017. I highlighted +0.125 in October 2016. That column reflects the implied change from yesterday to today. +0.125 just happens to represent precisely 1/8 of a point hike. Today the market took away an eighth of a point hike, over one year into the future, with the implied rate 13 months from now a mere 0.62%, about 5/8ths of a percent. Baby Steps These implied baby-step moves are why I stated that rate hikes, if they come would be in 1/8 point increments. I had the odds of 1/8 point hike today at roughly 50-50. The Fed could move in quarter point announcements, yet let the implied rates creep up effectively moving in 1/8 point steps, but that would mean a long time between numerous meetings before anything changes at all. Point is Moot The above point about eighth of a point hikes vs. quarter points hikes was likely made moot today. By December, the economic data is likely to be weakening so much, that the Fed may not hike until the next recession is over. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Fed Wimps Out: Rates Unchanged: Life Support Posted: 17 Sep 2015 11:33 AM PDT Today the Fed wimped out, once again, after signaling for a year that it is ready to hike. In a Déjà Vu Statement the Fed said virtually nothing. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.Life Support Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad.Actions speak louder than words. The Fed could not even manage a baby hike. There was only one dissent. What does the Fed's wimpy action imply about the real risks? And what success does the Fed have other than creating a stock and junk bond bubble? Finally, what will the Fed do if volatility goes up instead of down? Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey "Something Very Wrong" Posted: 17 Sep 2015 10:18 AM PDT Some are just beginning to figure out there are manufacturing sector troubles. The late-to-the party quote of the day comes from Bloomberg who just now realized "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector." The quote is in response to the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey where the Consensus Opinion was for a "respectable" 6.3 reading but the actual reading was -6.0, well below the consensus range of 2.50 to 10.50. There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast where the Empire State index has been in deep negative ground for the last two months followed now by a minus 6.0 headline for the Philly Fed index. This is the first negative reading since February 2014.Surprise, Surprise The Philadelphia Fed surprise comes on the heels of Shocking Weakness in Empire State Manufacturing Report, released on Tuesday. There are even bigger troubles in the Dallas Fed and Kansas City Fed regions due to the collapse in oil prices. For example Dallas Fed Region Activity Plunges Well Below Any Forecast Also note Kansas City Region Activity Remains in Deep Contraction And what about the Richmond region? I'm glad you asked. For the answer, please consider Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars. Today we learn "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast". Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Alternative ISM for Metalworking, Plastics, Composites Suggests Economic Contraction Posted: 17 Sep 2015 12:17 AM PDT About a week ago I received an interesting email from reader Steve Kline Jr. Kline is Director of Market Intelligence at Gardner Business Media, Inc., a B2B media company that conducts surveys similar to the ISM. Steve writes ... Hello MishIn a followup Email Steve wrote ... Hello MishHere are a couple of charts. Gardner MetalWorking Index vs. ISM  Gardner Durable Goods Index vs. ISM  It will be interesting to watch how this maps out vs. the ISM over time. I will post periodic updates when I get them. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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Local Listings: How Canadian Retailers Stack Up and What You Can Learn - Moz Blog
Local Listings: How Canadian Retailers Stack Up and What You Can Learn
Posted by rMaynes1
Local online listings are an essential component of an effective strategy to drive customers into local stores. Ranking highly in the search engine results and dominating the top rankings with your listings is critical for your customers to be able to find you in an online search.
Partnering with Placeable, Mediative, one of North America's leading digital marketing and advertising agencies, took twenty-five of Canada's top retail brands (those with multiple local stores, spread nationally), and analyzed how they're faring when it comes to local digital marketing compared to their American counterparts. The analysis found that 80% of the online listings for twenty-five of Canada's top retailers are inconsistent, inaccurate, or missing information. The top twenty-five US retailers are outperforming the top twenty-five Canadian retailers by over 28%.
The retailers' digital presence was analyzed across four dimensions, and brands received a score from 0 to 100 for each of the four dimensions. The dimension scores were weighted and combined into a single overall score: the NatLo™ Score ("National-to-Local"). This overall score is an authoritative measure of a company's local digital marketing performance:
 | Depth |
| Depth and accuracy of published location content, as well as the richness and completeness of site information. Some examples include name, address, phone number, descriptions, services, photos, calls-to-action, and more. | |
| Brands that achieve exceptional depth deliver a better customer experience with richer content about their locations and offerings. Greater Depth also produces higher online to offline conversion rates and supports other marketing calls-to-action. |
 | Visibility |
| Website effectiveness in search/discoverability. Some examples include site structure, page optimization, and web and mobile site performance. | |
| Strong visibility produces higher search engine rankings and greater traffic. It also enables brands to achieve multiple listings in search results. Brands with poor Visibility surrender more traffic to directories and competitors. |
 | Reach |
| Data consistency and coverage across third-party sites. Some examples include presence, completeness, and accuracy of location data on third party sites such as Google, Facebook, Factual, Foursquare, and the Yellow Pages directory site (YellowPages.ca). | |
| Brands with outstanding reach can be found by consumers across a range of search engines, social sites and apps. Poor Reach can lead to consumer confusion and misallocated marketing investments. |
 | Precision |
| Geographic accuracy of location data. For example, the pin placement of each location based on latitude and longitude, or the dispersion of pins on third-party sites (pin spread). | |
| Superior precision enables customers to efficiently navigate to a brand's location. Failure to ensure Precision damages customer trust and increases the risk of competitive poaching. |
Key findings of the report
- Across twenty-five of Canada's top retailers, on average, 80% of all third-party site listings are inconsistent, inaccurate, or missing information.
- The top twenty-five US retailers outperformed retailers in Canada by over 28%. Canadian retailers are weak in comparison.
- In the analysis of twenty-five of Canada's top retail brands, seven (or 28%) did not have local landing pages on their website, a key component of local SEO strategy that's needed to rank higher in search engines and get more traffic.
- Of those that included local landing pages, 72% failed to provide any content over and above the basics of name, address, hours, and phone number on their location pages. Engaging local content on local pages increases a brand's visibility on the search engine results page, and ultimately drives more traffic to the website and in-store.
- When it comes to Facebook location data, 90% was either inconsistent or missing, and 75% of Google+ location data was either inconsistent or missing. Inadequate syndication of location data across the third party ecosystem leads to poor placement in search engine results and the loss of online site visits.
- Only 8% of map pin placements were "good," with 92% being "fair" or "poor." Inaccurate pin placements lead to customer frustrations, and a stronger chance customers will visit competitors' locations.
Canada's best-performing retail brands
Brands with NatLo™ scores of over 70 have positioned themselves digitally to perform effectively within their local markets, drive consumer awareness, achieve online and mobile visibility, and capture the most web traffic and store visits. Brands achieving a score in the 60s are still doing well and have a good grasp of their local strategy; however, there are still areas that can be improved to maintain competitiveness. Scores below 60 indicate that there are areas in their local strategy that need improvement.
The average score across the Canadian retailers that were analyzed was just under 48—not a single one of the brands was excelling at maintaining accurate and consistent information across multiple channels. Ultimately, the listings accuracy of Canadian brands is weak.
The five top-performing brands analyzed and their corresponding NatLo™ scores were as follows:
 |  |  |  |  | |
| Jean Coutu | 60 | 80 | 66 | 37 | 56 |
| Walmart | 60 | 70 | 64 | 63 | 42 |
| Rona | 58 | 50 | 86 | 41 | 56 |
| Lululemon Athletica | 57 | 40 | 74 | 60 | 54 |
| Real Canadian Superstore | 55 | 50 | 51 | 72 | 45 |
Deep dive on depth: Jean Coutu
Jean Coutu performed exceptionally well in the dimension of depth, achieving the highest score across the retailers (80). What does Jean Coutu do to achieve a good depth score?
- The brand publishes the name, address, phone number, and hours for each location on its website.
- Additional location information is provided, including local flyers and offers, directions, services provided, brands offered, photos, and more (see image below). This delivers a much better customer experience.
Deep dive on visibility: Rona
Rona performed exceptionally well in terms of visibility, with a score of 86.
Rona achieves superior digital presence by using optimized mobile and web locators, plus page optimization tactics such as breadcrumb navigation. The website has a good store locator (as can be seen in the image below), with clean, location-specific urls that are easy for Google to find (e.g. http://www.rona.ca/en/Rona-home-garden-kelowna-kelowna):
In this study of Canadian retailers, many brands struggled with visibility due to the absence of specific, indexible local landing pages and a lack of engaging local content.
Deep dive on reach: Real Canadian Superstore
Real Canadian Superstore performed exceptionally well in the dimension of reach with a score of 72. The brand has claimed all of its Facebook pages, and 69% of location data matches what is listed on their website. Real Canadian Superstore also performed well in terms of its Google+ Local pages, with 49% of location data matching. The brand has a good local presence on Facebook, YellowPages.ca, Factual, Foursquare, and Google+ Local. By claiming these pages, the brand is extending its online reach.
Across all third-party sites measured, Real Canadian Superstore had a 0% location data missing rate on average, compared to the total average across all brands of 20%. Many of the brands struggled with external reach, missing important location information on Facebook and Google+, or having inaccurate information when compared to the same location information on the brand's website.
Deep dive on precision: Rexall Pharmacy
Interestingly, none of the top-scoring retailers performed very well in terms of precision (accuracy and consistency of pin placements). Rexall Pharmacy was the top performer, with a score of 62. At the time of writing, their precision scores were as follows:
 | 39% were good. |
 | 35% were fair. |
 | 26% were poor. |
In the retail industry, competing businesses can be located very closely to one another, so if the location of your business on a map or the directions provided through the map are accurate, there's less chance of your customers visiting your competitor's locations instead of yours.
In conclusion
All in all, Canada's top retail brands excel at brand advertising at the national level. But when it comes to driving local customers into local stores, a different strategy is required, and not all the top retailers are getting it. A solid local strategy requires all four dimensions to be addressed in order to achieve the synergies of an integrated strategy. By emulating the tactics implemented by the four retailers highlighted above, even the smallest local business can make significant improvements to their local online strategy.
Rebecca Maynes, Manager of Content Marketing and Research with Mediative, was the major contributor on this report. The full report, including which brands in Canada are performing well and which need to make some improvements, is available for free download.
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