Central Perk

miercuri, 11 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Women Not Leaving the Nest in Record Numbers; Marriage and Kids, Who Can Afford Them?

Posted: 11 Nov 2015 11:17 AM PST

An interesting report by PEW shows Record Share of Young Women are Living with their Parents, Relatives.

Back in 1940, 36.2% of young women lived with their parents or relatives. That number dropped over the next couple of decades as marriage rates increased and women began joining the workforce in larger numbers, becoming financially able to live on their own.

The reasons that more women today are living with mom and dad are far different from in the 1940s: Today's young women are more likely to be college educated and unmarried than earlier generations of American women in their age group.

College students – including those enrolled part-time and at community college – are significantly more likely to live with family than young adults who are not in college. In 2014, 45% of young females in college lived with family, compared with 33% of young females not in college.

Furthermore, while marriage typically promotes living independently of parents and other relatives, many young women are delaying marriage compared with earlier decades. In 2013, young women were half as likely to be married (30%) as young women in 1940 (62%). Census figures show that in 2014, the typical woman began her first marriage at age 27. In 1940, it was 21.5.

Remaining in the nest is also a trend for young men – in fact, even more so when compared with their female peers. Last year, 42.8% of young men lived with their family, a higher share than women but not one that surpasses the highest rates on record like the women's share does.

Marriage and Kids, Who Can Afford Them?

Delaying marriage is yet another deflationary trend the Fed is fighting. The Fed's inflation tactics and government interference are largely to blame.

Wages have not kept up with education costs and for someone in college the CPI is seriously understated. In addition, union handouts and ridiculous pensions that millennials have to support but will never receive, add greatly to the problem.

Millennials also have to overpay for health care, picking up the tab for overweight boomers etc.

Finally, attitudes towards having children have changed. Many women put their careers first, a smart thing to do in my opinion. Kids, who can afford them?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Reflections on Economists and the Weather

Posted: 11 Nov 2015 09:59 AM PST

In response to Economists Blame Mild Weather For Poor Retail Sales, Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog pinged me with this humorous comment ...

LOL: It's either too cold, too hot, too warm, or too right for shopping! Why is the weather seemingly never taking the forecasts of economists into account before it breaks loose?

Clearly this calls for a spot of intensified climate change action. Is there anything we could tax or regulate to death, to scare the weather into submission?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Alumni updates

Alumni updates

Over the years, I've had the extraordinary privilege of working with an all-star cast of interns, students, co-conspirators and employees. One of the thrills of my career is watching each of them go off and make a ruckus, a generous one, in the communities they care about.

I got a note from one the other day, and I thought you might want to hear about what she's doing. That led me to asking about fifty of them for an update, and without further ado (click each ellipsis for more information):

Michelle Welsch crowdfunded money to establish an education center in Nepal that provides language classes, career counseling and weekly seminars. ...

Al Pittampalli is following up his last bestseller with a new one, Persuadable, that promises to change the way we think about leadership. ...

Alex Krupp is launching a social network that lets you share great emails with everyone. ...

Allan Young is the founder of Runway and TopLine, two of the largest technology startup incubators and communities for innovators in the San Francisco Bay Area. ...

Allison Myers and her team continue to fight Big Tobacco where they enter our communities, in the retail environment. ...

Amber Rae continues to spread creativity around the world, and give people a platform to share their voice through public art. ...

Andrew Chapman is refining his venture into cause-related publishing, now exploring the idea of incorporating an app into his business model. ...

Andy Levitt's vegan meal kit business, Purple Carrot, has now expanded across the country, helping people eat more plant-based food. ...

Barrett Brooks is working to build the best place on the web to learn to build an independent business you believe in. ...

Bestselling business author Michael Parrish DuDell just finished his second book for ABC's Shark Tank and is a recognized television pundit. ...

Bonnie Diczhazy is working on fun projects for Pack with fellow alumni Megan Casey. ...

Calvin Liu continues to grow and develop Outpour, an award-winning app for honoring the special people in our lives. ...

Casper ter Kuile is convening secular communities that are playing increasingly religious functions in people's lives like CrossFit and The Dinner Party ...

Chelsea Shukov makes beautiful things with paper, so beautiful that Target has asked her to make them available to a lot of people. ...

Clay Hebert continues to help entrepreneurs, creatives and ruckusmakers fund their dreams. ...

Corey Brown is Chief Instigator at Coreyweb, a small team offering expertise from 20 years of inventing, designing, building and improving successful websites. ...

Dahna Goldstein's company, PhilanTech, was acquired and she continues to work to help social sector organizations maximize their impact. ...

Evan Kirsch continues to expand the impresario philosophy by becoming a Partner at MAKE Digital Group, a technology consulting firm allowing him to focus his efforts on educational reform and implement indispensable leadership principles through the entire organization. ...

Gil Hildebrand is leading a team of designers, developers, and marketers that supercharge some of the world's greatest brands. ...

Desiree Vargas Wrigley and GiveForward have helped keep thousands of people out of medical bankruptcy and put nearly $180M into the hands of American families when they need it the most. ...

Grant Spanier has been having conversations (on his podcast 10,000 HOURS) with some of the most interesting creative people in the world for two years now. ...

Rachel Simpson is continuing to work on Google Chrome - focusing on making important things easy and delightful to use. ...

Jeremy Wilson is continuing to connect his tribe and spread stories of inspiration through yoga classes he teaches in Chicago. ...

Jess Pillmore's living out loud with her revolution in sustainable artistry, provoking the arts and education to embrace play, ownership, and desiring the impossible. ...

Jessica Lawrence continues to build community through her leadership of NY Tech Meetup, a 47,000 member non-profit organization and the world's largest Meetup group. ...

Jonathan Van is continuing to help entrepreneurs build venture backed companies with great tools and investment. ...

Katrina Razavi has channeled her passion for communication skills and self-improvement into a blog that helps people improve their social confidence. ...

Kristina Villarini took her love for building community and amplifying voices to GLSEN, the leading national education nonprofit focused on keeping schools safe and affirming in grades K-12. ...

Leanne Hilgart's ethical fashion label VAUTE is one of the first private fashion brands to raise money from their biggest fans, with a goal to set a new standard of ethics in fashion. ...

Leslie Madsen-Brooks directs the IDEA Shop at Boise State, where she and her team help faculty use emerging technologies to develop novel learning experiences. ...

Liz Bohannon's ethical fashion company experienced record growth this year and continues to create opportunity for women and girls in East Africa. ...

Matt Frazier built thriving vegan running groups around the world, connecting no-meat athletes in places as unlikely as Oklahoma City and as far away as Sydney, Australia. ...

Matt Radcliffe uses his multi-faceted talents to produce and support live performance art in Colorado Springs. ...

McKenzie Cerri and team continue to transform the way teachers communicate, inspire and support their students, by embedding coaching-cultures in schools. ...

Phoebe Espiritu is midway through 25x52.com, an initiative to launch 25 projects in 52 weeks. Among the projects is Project Moccasin, a mentorship program where applicants get to spend a day at work with a design, product or entrepreneurial mentor. ...

Mike Ambassador Bruny continues to work on making a difference at work with his latest podcast, No More Reasonable Doubt, geared towards young professionals of color. ...

Nicola Gammon continues to grow Shoot to transform the way we garden. ...

Noah Weiss is the SVP of Product Management at Foursquare, where he's helping build software that make cities more fun and easier to use. ...

Paul Jun is continuing his coaching for the altMBA, and inspired by the students' growth, he started a project in rebranding his platform (ships November 15th). ...

Rebecca Rodskog is enabling organizations to think about the future of work, be more innovative, and help them create environments where their employees can thrive. ...

Rebecca Shomair founded an art fundraising event that is now held across the US raising over a million dollars for the Anti-Defamation League. ...

Reggie Black contines to share his art in non-traditional spaces with people around the world, redefining how we interact with inspiration. ...

Sean O'Connor has launched a new edtech platform that makes tutoring more affordable and accessible. ...

Sharon Rowe is collaborating on #MagicAndMayhem: a speaking platform to inspire entrepreneurs, powered by women telling their real stories of launching multimillion dollar businesses. ...

Stefy Cohen is working in Latin America to promote entrepreneurship & innovation through her series of talks, courses, and events. ...

Susan Danziger launched Ziggeo, the leading recorded video technology, a powerful way to gather videos from applicants. ...

Willie Jackson is creating a space for black men (and women) to connect with opportunities, jobs, and each other. ...

This is what it means to make a ruckus, to do work that matters and to ship your art. Wow.

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Seth's Blog : Your progress report

Your progress report

I'm not sure we need to see a checklist of what you got done last week. What we really need:

a. the difficult questions that remain unanswered

b. the long-term goals where you don't feel like progress is being made

c. risky, generous acts that worked

Even more important: All the things that aren't on your list, but could be.

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marți, 10 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fight for $15 vs. Drive to "Completely Obviate" Need for Fast Food Workers
Wholesale Trade Inventories Surge Led By Autos
Economists Blame Mild Weather For Poor Retail Sales
US Import/Export Prices Show Cross Border Deflationary Pressures
China Posts Lowest Business Sentiment on Record as Deflationary Pressures Rise

Fight for $15 vs. Drive to "Completely Obviate" Need for Fast Food Workers

Posted: 10 Nov 2015 10:10 PM PST

Fight for $15 Protests Sweep US

The fight for a "living wage" of $15 per hour is raging the US. Here are a few recent headlines.

LA/USA: L.A.-Area Workers Join Nationwide Protest Demanding $15 Minimum Wage
Jackson Mississippi: Jackson Workers Join the 'Fight for 15' Protest
LA: Thousands March in L.A. as Part of Nationwide Call to Raise Minimum Wage
Detroit: Detroit Fast-Food Workers Strike for $15-an-Hour Wage
USA : Fast-food Workers Strike, Seeking $15 Wage, Political Muscle
Oakland: Massive Protest For $15 In Oakland: "Come Get Our Vote"
Chicago: Fast food workers in Chicago push for $15 minimum wage

Fast Food Robots

Those fighting for a $15 living wage need consider Hamburgers, Coffee, Guitars, and Cars: A Report from Lemnos Labs.

Momentum showed off its prototype hamburger-making robot, which is expressly designed to displace two to three full-time kitchen workers, thus saving fast-food companies up to $90,000 per franchise per year, or $9 billion nationwide. In a matter of minutes, the machine can grill a beef patty, layer it with lettuce, tomatoes, pickles, and onions, marry it with a bun, and wrap it up to go. (I saw it with my own eyes.)

In addition to restaurant automation, the Lemnos companies are exploring areas like street-legal electric shuttles for corporate campuses (Local Motion), a new generation of electric guitars that take advantage of the smartphone revolution (Unplugged Instruments), and helping baristas brew the perfect cup of coffee (Blossom Coffee). Along with their peers at other specialized accelerators, such as Rock Health, Greenstart, and Media Camp, these entrepreneurs are trying to prove that a rapid-iteration mindset and a focus on customer needs can help almost any kind of technology startup get off the ground.

"Our device isn't meant to make employees more efficient," said co-founder Alexandros Vardakostas. "It's meant to completely obviate them."

Obviate the Workers

By all means let's pay workers $15 an hour, the ones with a job. But let's also pay 80% of the current set of fast food workers precisely what they are worth: Nothing.

That may sound harsh, but it's simple economic reality. Here's the real deal: Once machines cost less than worker salaries and benefits, the replaced human workers are essentially worthless.

It's not quite that simple because many people, myself included like human contact. For example, I do not use self-checkout lanes.

Yet, I have to wonder: How long will it be before there is an extra charge for having a human checkout clerk?

And at a fast food or chain restaurant, I don't care is I have human contact or not. Indeed, I would rather click buttons myself, accepting responsibility for my order. To top off the benefits, there is no need to tip a robot.

Counterproductive Push for $15

The push for $15 is counterproductive.

Not only will higher minimum wages displace workers, if everyone's wage rose, $15 would no longer be a "living wage".

And the higher the wages and benefits, the greater the incentive for companies to replace workers with hardware and software robots.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Wholesale Trade Inventories Surge Led By Autos

Posted: 10 Nov 2015 09:39 AM PST

Autos are the sales Energizer bunny. Nothing seems to slow them down. Wholesale Inventories Surprised to the Upside, led by autos.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in September following an upward revised 0.3 percent gain in August. The September build appears to be intentional based on a 0.5 percent rise in September sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio for wholesalers unchanged at 1.31.

Inventories of autos rose 2.3 percent as wholesalers try to keep up with what is very strong retail demand for autos. Excluding autos, the stock-to-sales wholesale ratio is unchanged at 1.27.

Inventory draws reflecting gains in sales include computer equipment, electrical goods, and apparel. Wholesale inventories of furniture rose on a swing lower for sales.

Inventories in general are heavy and businesses, waiting for a pick up in sales, are being careful to keep them in check. Today's results are in line with Commerce Department assumptions and should have little bearing on third-quarter GDP revisions.

Reflections on Batteries

At some point batteries die. When that happens to auto sales remains to be seen, but what cannot last forever clearly won't.

On the personal side, I am headed from Zion to Bryce Canyon National Park for a couple of days.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Economists Blame Mild Weather For Poor Retail Sales

Posted: 10 Nov 2015 09:25 AM PST

Goldilocks Weather Bad For Shopping

Weather in the past two months has generally been unseasonably pleasant.

Economists say this is bad for shopping as Redbook's Same Store Sales Report shows retail sales year-over year are only up 1.1%.

Sales in Redbook's same-store sample slowed sharply in the November 7 week, to a year-on-year plus 1.1 percent from an already moderate 1.9 percent in the prior week. Unseasonably warm weather has been hurting sales of seasonal goods, which could be a factor in Friday's retail sales report for October. Turning back to November and this report, readings in the early part of the month will be forgotten as attention turns to the holiday kickoff late in the month.

Definition

Redbook is a weekly measure of comparable store sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. Figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on through the month. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering about 10 percent of total retail sales.

Weather Comments

Apparently, weather needs to be just right, not for comfort levels, but to induce shoppers to buy. Supposedly, it's important that weather not be too good. Colder weather would be good now, but colder weather in January won't be.

I propose comparing weekly retail sales to the same week as last year or to the monthly average a year ago is essentially meaningless, if not outright ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

US Import/Export Prices Show Cross Border Deflationary Pressures

Posted: 10 Nov 2015 08:36 AM PST

There's a slew of US economic reports out today.

Let's take a look starting with a look at Import and Export Prices as described by Econoday.

Cross border price pressures continue to move lower. Import prices fell 0.5 percent in October including a steep 5 tenths downward revision to September to minus 0.6 percent. And it's not just gasoline! Nonpetroleum import prices fell 0.4 percent for the 10th decline in a row. Year-on-year, total import prices are down 10.5 percent, which is right in line with trend, with nonpetroleum down 3.4 percent for the largest drop since October 2009.

The story on the export side is the much same with export prices down 0.2 percent for a year-on-year decline of minus 6.7 percent. Excluding agricultural products, export prices fell 0.3 for a year-on-year decline of minus 6.1 percent.

Prices have been falling steadily for about a year in this report with declines also appearing for finished goods in what is a very important deflationary trend. Import prices for capital goods are down 2.3 percent year-on-year with vehicles down 1.6 percent and consumer goods down 0.6 percent. The export side is similar including a 2.4 percent year-on-year decline for consumer goods.

By country, contraction is steepest with Canada where import prices fell 1.0 percent in the month for a 20.5 percent year-on-year decline. Latin America is next, also down 1.0 percent in the month for a year-on-year decline of 14.7 percent. Import prices fell 0.1 percent with China where the year-on-year rate is minus 1.4 percent while prices with Europe actually rose 1 tenth in the month for a year-on-year minus 2.9 percent.

Contraction in import prices not only reflects low commodity prices but also the strength of the dollar which has been giving U.S. buyers more for their dollars, while contraction in export prices reflects generally deflationary global trends. Fed policy makers may be worried that slack has been absorbed in the labor market but they are also concerned about the continued lack of price pressure, the latter speaking against the urgency for a rate hike.

Import/Export Prices vs. Consensus

Economists were pretty close to the mark on export prices, but missed the boat totally on imports.

The consensus import price change was -0.1% with the actual result of -0.5%, outside the range of any economist's estimate.

Falling prices are a good thing actually, but the Fed sure does not see it that way.

As noted just a bit ago ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

China Posts Lowest Business Sentiment on Record as Deflationary Pressures Rise

Posted: 10 Nov 2015 08:11 AM PST

Markit reports China Posts Lowest Business Sentiment On Record. Data only dates to November of 2009, so that makes sentiment worst since the recovery.

However, sentiment is so low, I it's possible sentiment is worse that any time in the past 20 or even 30 years, had it only been measured. Let's take a look at the report.

The latest Markit Business Outlook Survey signalled the weakest level of optimism amongst Chinese companies since data collection began late-2009. This was highlighted by a net balance of just +17% of firms expecting business activity to rise over the next year, down from a previous low of +23% in June.

Average input prices faced by Chinese businesses are expected to rise only slightly over the coming year. A net balance of just +3% of firms forecast higher input costs in October, down from +9% in June, to signal the weakest inflation expectations in the series history.

At the sector level, manufacturers anticipate a fall in cost burdens (net balance of -6%). This is the first time deflation has been forecast in the sector since mid-2012. In contrast, service sector companies expect input costs to increase over the next year, though October's net balance of +14% is the lowest for a year.

China Business Expectations

Deflationary Pressures Rise

Sentiment largely reflects continuing deflationary cost pressures on manufacturers.

For details, please see China's PPI Drops 44th Month, Chinese Trade Slumps on Waning Demand, Deflationary Pressures.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Certain failure

Certain failure

Last night, a comedian tried out some new material, and someone in the front row didn't laugh.

Last week, I put up a post with a new idea in it, and thousands of people who read it didn't retweet or share it.

Last year, someone ran for office and didn't get every single vote cast.

Failure! Certain failure.

Of course your next project isn't going to delight everyone. That's impossible. It's certain that for some people, your project is going to be a failure.

At the same time, it's also quite unlikely that your project will please no one.

So now, we can agree that it's all on a spectrum, and that success and failure are merely localized generalizations.

Once you realize that failure is certain, it's a lot easier to focus on impact instead.

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miercuri, 11 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Alumni updates

Alumni updates

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Seth's Blog : Your progress report

Your progress report

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marți, 10 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Certain failure

Certain failure

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miercuri, 11 noiembrie 2015

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